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bagwell368
06-08-2013, 02:59 PM
Salty is at: 268/.335/.484 after yesterdays game. The OBP is impressive, but Salty like a lot of starting catchers falls off in the 2nd half. For instance Salty last year:

1st half: .239/.289/.517
2nd half: .200/.286/.371

Salty career:

1st half: .251/.315/.435
2nd half: 225/.289/.407

Prepare for a weaker 2nd half. Maybe ~.225/.290/.410

RedSoxtober
06-08-2013, 03:57 PM
Cafardo will have a heart attack but Salty is a piece that I'd consider dealing at the deadline if anyone is looking.

AI
06-08-2013, 04:05 PM
Cafardo will have a heart attack but Salty is a piece that I'd consider dealing at the deadline if anyone is looking.

Absolutely. We're acquiring Mauer anyways so he's not needed. :)

bagwell368
06-08-2013, 04:33 PM
Cafardo will have a heart attack but Salty is a piece that I'd consider dealing at the deadline if anyone is looking.

Nah... we're in this thing until well after the deadline, so he stays.

-Lavigne43-
06-08-2013, 04:41 PM
I have no doubt he will have a long stretch where he can't do anything except strikeout and roll grounders to 2b.

Nomar
06-09-2013, 02:13 PM
He needs to go

Celticsfan2007
06-09-2013, 07:47 PM
Bad timing as salty hits two bombs today, but solid points with his historical second half production.

Nothing would make me happier than to see someone else behind the plate. I've never really been a fan of his game.

AI
06-10-2013, 12:29 AM
If we could manage to find a C who hits LHP then Salty would be pretty valuable in a platoon:

13' vs RHP: .311/.368/.549, .394 wOBA, 146 wRC+
Career vs RHP: .260/.325/.463, .342 wOBA, 107 wRC+

RedSoxtober
06-10-2013, 08:56 AM
Nah... we're in this thing until well after the deadline, so he stays.

If he performs as he has in the past then his offensive performance is about to fall off a cliff as you've noted. When he isn't hitting bombs (roughly 2/3 of his HR are in the first half) then he's a net negative given his shoddy defense. (Oddly Lester is throwing better to Salty than Ross, Buchholz/Lackey are essentially even with the two, but Dempster/Doubront are MUCH better with Ross). The Sox could potentially be a net positive replacing him with Lavarnway given that the kid has improved his game behind the plate. In this scenario you've also got Lavarnway experiencing the crucible in a season in which the Sox were not honestly considered contenders; if it doesn't work out then he's still gained valuable experience and the fans aren't THAT disappointed considering the expectations.

They get nothing for Salty at the end of the season. A deal with a contender that loses their top receiver sometime over the next five weeks could be lucrative from a personnel perspective.

That's my rationale. You may be right, and the Sox may disagree with me, but that's why I'd be very open to moving him.

bagwell368
06-10-2013, 11:39 AM
If he performs as he has in the past then his offensive performance is about to fall off a cliff as you've noted. When he isn't hitting bombs (roughly 2/3 of his HR are in the first half) then he's a net negative given his shoddy defense. (Oddly Lester is throwing better to Salty than Ross, Buchholz/Lackey are essentially even with the two, but Dempster/Doubront are MUCH better with Ross). The Sox could potentially be a net positive replacing him with Lavarnway given that the kid has improved his game behind the plate. In this scenario you've also got Lavarnway experiencing the crucible in a season in which the Sox were not honestly considered contenders; if it doesn't work out then he's still gained valuable experience and the fans aren't THAT disappointed considering the expectations.

They get nothing for Salty at the end of the season. A deal with a contender that loses their top receiver sometime over the next five weeks could be lucrative from a personnel perspective.

That's my rationale. You may be right, and the Sox may disagree with me, but that's why I'd be very open to moving him.

Don't get me wrong, I've had the knives out for Salty for a long time. But this is a pretty conservative Mgt and a core position starter. It just seems too risky for them. Maybe Bill James should earn his money and get Salty an extra day off out of 5 from mid June to late Aug to keep him fresh.

I think Lavarnway can play the position as well or better than Salty. But if they had in their minds to trade Salty at the deadline why didn't Lavarnway get more time when he was last up?

todu82
06-10-2013, 12:46 PM
Yeah, I think if we could get rid of Salty it would make us a better ball team.

Nomar
06-10-2013, 05:57 PM
His babip is through the roof. It will come down and so will he. I don't want him even in a platoon.

BCpatsox18
06-11-2013, 12:35 AM
I never understood why everyone hates salty. Catchers in general do not hit for high averages and catchers that can hit for 25 HRs don't grow on trees. He may not be a gold glover but behind the plate he's solid if unspectacular, and if he hits around .230-.240 you take that with his power. Everyone expects every catcher to be joe Mauer and its just not possible

Nomar
06-11-2013, 12:44 AM
If Salty could call a game I'd be fine with his offensive output for sure. I think with the numbers he's put up this year, he's definitely been above average thus far. But his offense will decline, and when it does he's not going to be worth the liability he is behind the plate. I really do think he was the among the worst game calling starting catchers last year. That's why people hate him.

-Lavigne43-
06-11-2013, 01:19 AM
Salty is terrible behind the plate. He's also is horrific at throwing out runners, a lot of his throws end up in the OF, I don't know why other teams don't run on him more often. The tear he is on offensively has made him a good player so far this year. Hes a very streaky hitter though, and often has long horrible slumps. He has a .406 babip, this production won't continue. The last two years hes a ~.280 OBP/.450 SLG, which is not enough when you suck defensively. No ones expecting Joe Mauer, we want someone dependable behind the plate. We want a solid all around catcher.

BCpatsox18
06-11-2013, 01:00 PM
He may be a bad game caller, but thus far I don't know how you can knock him, the Red Sox have been one of the best pitching teams this year and even if its not due to salty it doesn't seem to be hurting him. Solid all around catching is EXTREMELY hard to find, that's why you have guys like Gerald laird and corky miller sticking around for so long. He may not be the greatest catcher in the game but all I'm saying is if he were gone I think people would be unpleasantly surprised with the drop off in production from the catcher spot

RedSoxtober
06-11-2013, 03:22 PM
He may be a bad game caller, but thus far I don't know how you can knock him, the Red Sox have been one of the best pitching teams this year and even if its not due to salty it doesn't seem to be hurting him. Solid all around catching is EXTREMELY hard to find, that's why you have guys like Gerald laird and corky miller sticking around for so long. He may not be the greatest catcher in the game but all I'm saying is if he were gone I think people would be unpleasantly surprised with the drop off in production from the catcher spot

Passed balls and balls thrown into the OF lead to unearned runs. That hurts the pitching staff even when it doesn't effect the team ERA. More pitches thrown, fewer outs recorded, more RPs wasted.

Maybe more importantly, as I just mentioned in another thread, his stats are almost identical to his line a year ago today (actually 51 weeks ago -- 6/5/12 vs 6/11/13). Considering that he finished right around his miserable .230/.288/.450 line with the Sox he had a TERRIBLE second half. He did virtually the same thing the year before (peak was a little lower and a little later). While you might be right that we would be disappointed with the drop off... we're going to be disappointed with the dropoff anyway.

Shaiza
06-12-2013, 01:52 PM
Passed balls and balls thrown into the OF lead to unearned runs. That hurts the pitching staff even when it doesn't effect the team ERA. More pitches thrown, fewer outs recorded, more RPs wasted.

Maybe more importantly, as I just mentioned in another thread, his stats are almost identical to his line a year ago today (actually 51 weeks ago -- 6/5/12 vs 6/11/13). Considering that he finished right around his miserable .230/.288/.450 line with the Sox he had a TERRIBLE second half. He did virtually the same thing the year before (peak was a little lower and a little later). While you might be right that we would be disappointed with the drop off... we're going to be disappointed with the dropoff anyway.

I agree with everything you said. Might be smart to sell him high at this point. His OBP never looked better...sadly.

MiamiBoy77
06-12-2013, 02:15 PM
i actually really like Salty... hmm... wouldnt be mad if we find an upgrade though

AI
06-12-2013, 08:21 PM
All strikes down in the zone, Salty makes them look like balls by stabbing at them.

His receiving/framing is pretty awful.

win red sox
06-12-2013, 10:20 PM
one thing about salty is that he has improved his defense every year, still struggles with accuracy, questionable decision making, and supposedly framing. There are some positives which I think go unnoticed, he's ability to block balls in the dirt has improved to the point where I would consider him above average in that aspect, above average arm strength, and it appears pitchers like throwing to him. I didn't even realize until now that he's 3rd among sox regulars with an wRC+ of 134(2 behind pedey) and 7th in fwar for catchers with a minimum 150 abs. I know the strikeouts are frustrating but the sox need his bat in the lineup, what are they going to do? start ross with his wRC+ of 88, or bring up Lavernway who's ship has sailed and even it hasn't he's not much or if any improvement defensively over salty and has less offensive upside, Butler has no offensive upside, Swihart if he stays at catcher is probably 3-4 yrs away. The only catcher that would interest me via trade would be McCann, but it would come at a premium and it doesn't make sense for the braves to move him during a pennant run. Best case scenario is Farrell gives him significant days off in july and august and hopefully has some left in the tank come the playoffs.

ruckus16969
06-13-2013, 04:13 AM
Yeah, I think if we could get rid of Salty it would make us a better ball team.

I think that really depends on who we had catching for us. There are allot worse catchers out there

bagwell368
06-13-2013, 05:18 AM
one thing about salty is that he has improved his defense every year, still struggles with accuracy, questionable decision making, and supposedly framing. There are some positives which I think go unnoticed, he's ability to block balls in the dirt has improved to the point where I would consider him above average in that aspect, above average arm strength, and it appears pitchers like throwing to him. I didn't even realize until now that he's 3rd among sox regulars with an wRC+ of 134(2 behind pedey) and 7th in fwar for catchers with a minimum 150 abs. I know the strikeouts are frustrating but the sox need his bat in the lineup

His ERA vs other catchers has been brutal vs. other Sox catchers in his first two years here. He's gotten better this year. Beckett wouldn't go near the guy. In the prior two years Lester should not have gone near him since he sucked so bad when throwing to Salty.

2011 4.63 (team outside of Salty 3.90)
2012 4.84 (team outside of Salty 4.55)
2013 4.19 (team outside of Salty 3.72)

That makes Salty's offense very costly.


or bring up Lavernway who's ship has sailed and even it hasn't he's not much or if any improvement defensively over salty and has less offensive upside

Lavarnway is younger and has years more control, and is a better defensive catcher by far at the same age as Salty was, and is arguably better on the D now - quite a feat considering how many more innings Salty has caught than Lavarnway going back to say age 18. Lavarnway's bat is going to be better when he finally gets consistent PA's. He certainly will draw more walks and make more contact than he has.


Swihart if he stays at catcher is probably 3-4 yrs away.

Overly dour IMO. You missed the Sox #1 or #2 catcher in the minors BTW depending on where you rank Lavarnway.


The only catcher that would interest me via trade would be McCann

For 2013 alone? Or going forward, there are better catchers than McCann to be had. And as you say would be stupid for the Braves to deal him. You honestly think Salty is the 2nd best catcher in the Majors?

BTW Ross is Salty's superior defensively and is likely not to fall into a 2nd half funk as Salty always seems too.

win red sox
06-13-2013, 08:30 PM
q

Nomar
06-16-2013, 01:23 AM
His ERA vs other catchers has been brutal vs. other Sox catchers in his first two years here. He's gotten better this year. Beckett wouldn't go near the guy. In the prior two years Lester should not have gone near him since he sucked so bad when throwing to Salty.

2011 4.63 (team outside of Salty 3.90)
2012 4.84 (team outside of Salty 4.55)
2013 4.19 (team outside of Salty 3.72)

That makes Salty's offense very costly.



Lavarnway is younger and has years more control, and is a better defensive catcher by far at the same age as Salty was, and is arguably better on the D now - quite a feat considering how many more innings Salty has caught than Lavarnway going back to say age 18. Lavarnway's bat is going to be better when he finally gets consistent PA's. He certainly will draw more walks and make more contact than he has.



Overly dour IMO. You missed the Sox #1 or #2 catcher in the minors BTW depending on where you rank Lavarnway.



For 2013 alone? Or going forward, there are better catchers than McCann to be had. And as you say would be stupid for the Braves to deal him. You honestly think Salty is the 2nd best catcher in the Majors?

BTW Ross is Salty's superior defensively and is likely not to fall into a 2nd half funk as Salty always seems too.

Lavarnway is really struggling offensively. He's declined offensively over the last two years especially in the power department. I'm starting to see him as more of a backup C now or maybe even a AAAA player if all goes wrong. Either way he has disappointed me. Luckily for us Swihart is on a good track it would seem.

bagwell368
06-16-2013, 05:30 AM
Lavarnway is really struggling offensively. He's declined offensively over the last two years especially in the power department. I'm starting to see him as more of a backup C now or maybe even a AAAA player if all goes wrong. Either way he has disappointed me. Luckily for us Swihart is on a good track it would seem.

While Lavarnway hasn't hit for as much power in '12 and '13 in the Minors as he has previously, his OBP has been quite good.

As meh as he's been in the Majors, his hitting has been much better than Iglesias's from '11 and '12 combined.

He's also throwing runners out at 48% with no errors in AAA this year across 32 games, although his PB are up.

There is also Vazquez in Portland who is at/close to the Majors as a defensive catcher but can't hit much.

I don't think there is any real chance Salty gets dealt this season. Still if we can get our offense together enough for '14, I'd like to not resign Salty and go in house or get a defensive catcher on a one year deal.

Also, Swihart has a good chance of moving off from C - perhaps to 2B. Also as a catcher, Swihart would appear in Boston not much earlier than mid '16 IMO, he's in high A as a 21 year old now.

The_Great_8
06-16-2013, 08:39 AM
I'd see what the cubs would offer for him. Seems like Theo always had a hard-on for Salty.

I'd love to get rid of him just so I don't have to look at his Jerry curl anymore.

bagwell368
06-16-2013, 10:05 AM
I'd see what the cubs would offer for him. Seems like Theo always had a hard-on for Salty.

I'd love to get rid of him just so I don't have to look at his Jerry curl anymore.

I think Theo liked him because he got him cheap. We have gotten our monies worth on Salty, that much I'll give him.. and LOL!

BostonSports96
06-17-2013, 12:12 AM
You guys really think Salty will be traded as of now? I've never been a Salty fan, but he's hitting very well this season and the pitching has been better, not necessarily because of him, but changing catchers mid season might break some rhythm with our starters. I can see us extending him after the season, matter of fact I expect it at this point.

RedSoxtober
06-17-2013, 09:40 AM
He's also throwing runners out at 48% with no errors in AAA this year across 32 games, although his PB are up.
Steven Wright?


You guys really think Salty will be traded as of now? I've never been a Salty fan, but he's hitting very well this season and the pitching has been better, not necessarily because of him, but changing catchers mid season might break some rhythm with our starters. I can see us extending him after the season, matter of fact I expect it at this point.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, you need to check out his 2012 numbers. He's almost dead on where he was exactly a year ago... including going 1/9 with 3+ K after hitting his high water mark for the season. Sure, that's a bit over the top with the analogy but the fact is, he's dead on what he's done the last couple of seasons with the Sox... and that means he's likely to hit around .200/280/.420 the rest of the way.

I don't really expect him to be moved but I'd love to sell high.

BostonSports96
06-17-2013, 05:31 PM
And have Ross and Lavarnway platoon at C the rest of the season? Possibly breaking rhythm with our starters? No thanks. I feel more confident with our catchers now.

RedSoxtober
06-17-2013, 07:32 PM
And have Ross and Lavarnway platoon at C the rest of the season? Possibly breaking rhythm with our starters? No thanks. I feel more confident with our catchers now.

Do you care that the very same pitchers threw BETTER to Lavarnway than Salty last year?

Nomar
06-17-2013, 08:04 PM
Yeah when Salty's BABIP is back around .300 and hes hitting .220 while still not being able to call a game, you'll be singing a different song.

B'sCeltsPatsSox
06-17-2013, 10:38 PM
Yeah when Salty's BABIP is back around .300 and hes hitting .220 while still not being able to call a game, you'll be singing a different song.

Exactly. Salty's been playing well since this thread has been started, but his career shows that he probably won't be able to sustain the way he's playing right now.

win red sox
06-17-2013, 10:39 PM
Do you care that the very same pitchers threw BETTER to Lavarnway than Salty last year?

what about salty vs ross this year? I would look it up but on my phone.

win red sox
06-17-2013, 10:47 PM
Yeah when Salty's BABIP is back around .300 and hes hitting .220 while still not being able to call a game, you'll be singing a different song.

wouldn't those numbers be lav's or ross's ceiling? and please don't bring up what Lav's did a couple years ago in AA/AAA. I'll give you that ross is an upgrade defensively, but brings nothing to the plate. If they want to upgrade the catcher position it will have to come from the trade market, and premium catcher's don't come cheap.

Nomar
06-17-2013, 11:08 PM
wouldn't those numbers be lav's or ross's ceiling? and please don't bring up what Lav's did a couple years ago in AA/AAA. I'll give you that ross is an upgrade defensively, but brings nothing to the plate. If they want to upgrade the catcher position it will have to come from the trade market, and premium catcher's don't come cheap.

I'm not saying anything about who should or shouldnt play, im just stating that Salty isn't a good long term option..

BostonSports96
06-18-2013, 02:29 AM
I'm not saying anything about who should or shouldnt play, im just stating that Salty isn't a good long term option..

I never said he was. Maybe you missed when I said I've never been a Salty fan. But for those suggesting to sell high on Salty this trade deadline, think again. Like win red sox said Salty's career averages are about Ross and Lavy's ceilings right now. Right now, Salty is the (not ideal) best option to start 2 out of every 3 games for us behind the plate. Lavy and Ross are full-time backups. We won't be able to acquire anyone better than Salty at the trade deadline to compensate if we trade him either.

BostonSports96
06-18-2013, 02:31 AM
Exactly. Salty's been playing well since this thread has been started, but his career shows that he probably won't be able to sustain the way he's playing right now.

Who else would start behing the plate the rest of the year? Ross/Lavy?

BostonSports96
06-18-2013, 02:36 AM
Do you care that the very same pitchers threw BETTER to Lavarnway than Salty last year?

Are you seriously suggesting that Lavarnway's 1 and a half month sample behind the plate from last year is indicative of his defense? And our pitching was still pretty bad even with him catching.

bagwell368
06-18-2013, 05:40 AM
Are you seriously suggesting that Lavarnway's 1 and a half month sample behind the plate from last year is indicative of his defense? And our pitching was still pretty bad even with him catching.

Since Salty has been here, he's had worse ERA numbers than all the other catchers (in some cases looking at just the main 2-3 SP's). The list:

2011: Varitek (39 years old)
2012: Shoppach, Lavarnway
2013: Ross

Now, if it was just Lavarnway in his 28 games in 2012, sample size would be a serious issue, but it's more players, and a lot more games/innings than that.

RedSoxtober
06-18-2013, 10:41 AM
Are you seriously suggesting that Lavarnway's 1 and a half month sample behind the plate from last year is indicative of his defense? And our pitching was still pretty bad even with him catching.

What I am suggesting is that your assertion that we'd mess up the pitchers by dealing Salty is COMPLETE fiction. Salty is a bad catcher. He frames pitches poorly, calls a bad game, drops balls, and sails throws into the OF as part of his inability to keep runners from stealing. There's nothing in his game that even remotely supports your ridiculous contention that the pitching staff would be negatively affected by his departure.

Lester: 4.01ERA in 49.1IP with Lavarnway; 5.62ERA in 107.1IP with Salty
Buchholz: 3.79ERA in 35.2IP with Lavarnway; 6.30ERA in 70.2IP with Salty

While the sample was somewhat small it was not that far off from what Salty had with those guys. Lavarnway caught only part of one game with Doubront, the only other catcher in the current rotation, so those results are not really worth comparing.

The results were SO poor that they'd rival the nearly historic disasters we've seen in recent years. Moreover, the impact that Lavarnway had was immediate and demonstrable. His work with the (supposedly) top two pitchers on the staff brought them into ERA+ 110-115 territory. Contrary to your assertion they were actually pretty GOOD with him behind the plate... in the same season they were suffering career worst performances.


what about salty vs ross this year? I would look it up but on my phone.

Some guys have had better results with Ross, others with Salty, and some are essentially the same.

Buchholz: 1.51ERA/35.2IP with Ross; 1.85ERA/48.2IP with Salty
Dempster: 2.75ERA/36.0IP with Ross; 4.85ERA/42.2IP with Salty
Lackey: 2.38ERA/11.1IP with Ross; 2.59ERA/48.2IP with Salty
Lester: 5.27ERA/42.2IP with Ross; 3.63ERA/52.0IP with Salty
Ross: 3.60ERA/5.0IP with Ross; 4.87ERA/61.0IP with Salty

Of those numbers the only guy who would seem to suffer from losing Salty is Lester but based on last year's performance with Lavarnway it doesn't look like that would be a realistic concern. And if not, it would be easy enough to manage the performance based on the results.

BostonSports96
06-18-2013, 03:44 PM
Since Salty has been here, he's had worse ERA numbers than all the other catchers (in some cases looking at just the main 2-3 SP's). The list:

2011: Varitek (39 years old)
2012: Shoppach, Lavarnway
2013: Ross

Now, if it was just Lavarnway in his 28 games in 2012, sample size would be a serious issue, but it's more players, and a lot more games/innings than that.

I understand all of that, but none of the guys we have behind Salty currently (Lavarnway or Ross) are capable starting catchers every day of the week.

And if we trade Salty, who replaces him in the short term? We aren't gonna find anyone better on the trade market to replace him. I bet if you asked BC whether he's looking to trade Salty in the midsts of a playoff run he'd say your crazy.

BostonSports96
06-18-2013, 03:52 PM
The only guy I could see us acquiring to replace Salty is McCann, who I would like, but I doubt BC is looking to trade Salty just to acquire another catcher on a 1 year deal, who is older and oft-injured.

McCann does have a 3.39 catcher ERA this year (3.84 all time) and a slightly better CS% than Salty all time (24%).

bagwell368
06-18-2013, 06:19 PM
I understand all of that, but none of the guys we have behind Salty currently (Lavarnway or Ross) are capable starting catchers every day of the week.

Lavarnway/Ross would seem to hurt the offense quite a bit - but if Salty has his usual 2nd half swoon, that will be largely cancelled out, no?

Meanwhile defensively it couldn't be worse. I'd give Ross 3/5 and Lavarnway 2/5 of the starts.

Still - to get better than Salty is way too expensive, and what we could get for him probably can't help us win this year - so overall it seems likely he stays. I want Ross to play more the next 8 weeks to give Salty more of a break too.


And if we trade Salty, who replaces him in the short term? We aren't gonna find anyone better on the trade market to replace him. I bet if you asked BC whether he's looking to trade Salty in the midsts of a playoff run he'd say your crazy.

Right. If the Sox were playing at .425, Salty would be dealt, but you can't do it now. Perhaps at the end of the waiver period if we've collapsed...

bagwell368
06-18-2013, 06:19 PM
I understand all of that, but none of the guys we have behind Salty currently (Lavarnway or Ross) are capable starting catchers every day of the week.

Lavarnway/Ross would seem to hurt the offense quite a bit - but if Salty has his usual 2nd half swoon, that will be largely cancelled out, no?

Meanwhile defensively it couldn't be worse. I'd give Ross 3/5 and Lavarnway 2/5 of the starts.

Still - to get better than Salty is way too expensive, and what we could get for him probably can't help us win this year - so overall it seems likely he stays. I want Ross to play more the next 8 weeks to give Salty more of a break too.


And if we trade Salty, who replaces him in the short term? We aren't gonna find anyone better on the trade market to replace him. I bet if you asked BC whether he's looking to trade Salty in the midsts of a playoff run he'd say your crazy.

Right. If the Sox were playing at .425, Salty would be dealt, but you can't do it now. Perhaps at the end of the waiver period if we've collapsed...

bagwell368
06-18-2013, 06:21 PM
The only guy I could see us acquiring to replace Salty is McCann, who I would like, but I doubt BC is looking to trade Salty just to acquire another catcher on a 1 year deal, who is older and oft-injured.

McCann does have a 3.39 catcher ERA this year (3.84 all time) and a slightly better CS% than Salty all time (24%).

McCann? Forget it. No chance.

BostonSports96
06-18-2013, 09:02 PM
Still - to get better than Salty is way too expensive, and what we could get for him probably can't help us win this year - so overall it seems likely he stays. I want Ross to play more the next 8 weeks to give Salty more of a break too.

Right. If the Sox were playing at .425, Salty would be dealt, but you can't do it now. Perhaps at the end of the waiver period if we've collapsed...

Well this is pretty much what I've been saying/meaning....looks like we are on the same page. Doubt anything happens to Salty.

Nomar
06-19-2013, 06:36 PM
I never said he was. Maybe you missed when I said I've never been a Salty fan. But for those suggesting to sell high on Salty this trade deadline, think again. Like win red sox said Salty's career averages are about Ross and Lavy's ceilings right now. Right now, Salty is the (not ideal) best option to start 2 out of every 3 games for us behind the plate. Lavy and Ross are full-time backups. We won't be able to acquire anyone better than Salty at the trade deadline to compensate if we trade him either.

Yeah it's gonna be hard to sell high on anyone at the break unless JBJ comes up and shows he can start in CF everyday in which case Ellsbury can e put on the block.

AI
06-27-2013, 02:43 AM
So it appears the Salty implosion has begun earlier than we expected this season.

RedSoxtober
06-27-2013, 02:18 PM
^^^Nah, it's pretty much what I expected. I noted earlier (http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?822197-Salty-Watch&p=26415555#post26415555) that he was almost dead on his peak from last year and alluded to the slide that took place right after that. This year's slide has been more severe... but it started right on time.

2012
In the 11 games following his peak (6/5/12), he hit .211/.262/.421 with 2-2B, 2HR, 7RBI, 10K. He struck out at least once in 6 of 11 games with a golden sombrero in the middle.

2013
In the 11 games following his peak (6/11/13), he has hit .143/.217/.167 with 1-2B, 1RBI, and 21K. He has struck out at least once in 10 of those 11 games, multiple times in 9 of 11, including four 3K games in his last 7.

-Lavigne43-
07-09-2013, 01:24 PM
Really in depth interview with Salty

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/in-depth-with-jarrod-saltalamacchia/

The first paragraph made me laugh. Also this


There are guys like Ian Kinsler — who like to swing at that first pitch — but that doesn’t mean you go away from the fastball. You just throw it to the outside corner, as opposed to down the middle or middle in. Explains the million leadoff homeruns hes hit off us.

lucchesicourt
07-18-2013, 10:22 PM
Statistically, Salty and Nap (offensively) are almost the same as I write. So, offensively, I cannot be down on the guy. There are not many great hitting catchers in MLB, and Salty may be better than most. But, defense (which includes game calling) is the most important aspect for a catcher. So, given that, there is really little available that would be better than salty. I do not like the number of K's he produces, anymore than I do Naps, but that is what the Sox have right now. It would be easier to improve the offense and defense at 1st base than C.

bagwell368
07-19-2013, 01:28 PM
Statistically, Salty and Nap (offensively) are almost the same as I write. So, offensively, I cannot be down on the guy. There are not many great hitting catchers in MLB, and Salty may be better than most.

Well, if you've been paying attention, Salty's 2nd halves are much worse than his first halves:

JS 1st half career: .252 /318/.432
JS 2nd half career: .225/.289/.407

That's -.027/-.029/-.035

Napoli:

MN 1st half career: .249/.351/.485
MN 2nd half career: .268/.359/.513

That's +.019/+.008/+.028 - which is MUCH stronger than Salty. Smart money has to be on Napoli over Salty in terms of offensive numbers going forward the rest of the year. Of course why you are using Napoli in a Salty thread, I can't say.

Also so far this year, Napoli has done a good deal better than Salty with men on base (RISP).

It is good that you are finally evaluating players per position. I imagine you are much higher on Drew now. Unless hypocrisy reigns.


But, defense (which includes game calling) is the most important aspect for a catcher. So, given that, there is really little available that would be better than salty.

Why? Salty is a well below average defensive catcher considering all elements of the art. See below.


I do not like the number of K's he produces, anymore than I do Naps, but that is what the Sox have right now. It would be easier to improve the offense and defense at 1st base than C.

MN is a better defensive 1B than JS is a catcher. MN is on target to being a top 3 1B in the AL this year (BR Rdrs/yr) - you already made up your mind months ago - just like the year before when you skewered Ross for the one single bad play he made all year - Ross played very well out there - but you made up your mind so he must have sucked. Same with Napoli, the last 3 weeks in particular Napoli has been excellent.

Salty is headed for a ghastly -16Rdrs/yr - one of the 2-3 worst marks in the AL - and that's just glove work based. Salty is a miserable game caller (look at the results vs his stable mates since he first got here), doesn't frame well much of the time. I mean, do you actually watch him? Or just assume because he can talk the talk and the announcers like him - this must mean he is good - or maybe you don't care - it's just another way to pick at Napoli - who is still beyond criticism of people that value baseball events in a sane manner.

I assumed if you returned that you might try and answer the issues RST and I posed in the included thread, but that would require a lot of effort... http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?815761-Who-is-the-real-Napoli&p=26589370#post26589370

Instead we get a oblique cut at Napoli in a thread about Salty... wow....

RedSoxtober
07-22-2013, 12:01 PM
I've made a big deal about Salty and the very close comparison between 2013 and his previous two seasons. Depending on how you want to cut it he's a bit better (or worse) to date this season than last. In 43 games since hitting his peak this year he's hit .248/.320/.395. Last year the peak came a bit earlier and in the same 43 game span following his peak he hit .212/.284/.486. The difference in OBP is corresponds directly to his increased BA... but the drop in power should be a concern for those who think of his power being a contribution to the club.

Another concern is that he's had 62K in 43G since hitting his peak this season (cf. 50K/43G in 2012). That kind of jump in his k-rate is generally more a second-half issue for him.

Also a bit of a concern that that +.036 in his BA over the last 43 games was driven by a BABIP of .387 in that span. Considering that his lifetime number is .319 we can't expect that to continue.

Wrap that up together and the general trend is for him to have a VERY rough second half. Two consecutive 3K games over the weekend may be a harbinger, ESPECIALLY with Farrell giving Lavarnway only sparing starts behind the plate.

redsoxslinky
07-22-2013, 12:45 PM
As much as people seem to comment on how Salty has progressed into a 25 hr catcher, I believe he should go. Honestly he should have been gone last year. But I think that's why they got Ross so at deadline or end of the year hes gone. Now with ross out, I still suggest trading him. Any other catcher is better. Maybe not offensively powerwise but he has struck out 100 times already and sure doesn't know how to call a game. I mean for the last few years if you always compared starters eras when he started to the backup, his eras are much higher. I can deal with Napoli because he hasn't become a defensive liability but Salty is. He cant throw out runners, misses a lot of passed balls, strikes out a lot, etc so get rid of him while his stock is still semi high please. Otherwise with him we are in a world of trouble the second half esp with Lesters demise, Bucholtz who seemed to turn into a JD drew (neck issue), and all minor leaguers getting debuts. Go for Mauer or Mcann or someone with much more defensive potential andcalling games. Hell look at what Chris Stewart did for the Yankees against us this weekend.

bagwell368
10-29-2013, 11:55 AM
OK, lost amidst the hoopla of the WS, is the reduced role of Salty. Does this reflect an organizational stance, or just for the WS?

Salty hit well in the 2nd half, up until the Sep/playoffs. He's past being on fumes, so we have a good idea of how many games he can catch a year - which is less than he did.

He continues to throw at or below average. His fielding is meh, and his judgement on bang bang plays isn't good either.

I have to think the Sox at most will offer a QO and hope like crazy someome takes him off our hands - or not - and not sign him. I can't stomach the notion that he could be here for 3-4 more years.

My solution is to go with Ross and Lavarnway next year - giving Lavarnway his chance. If Ross gets hurt or Lavarnway doesn't cut it, we have Vazquez in the wings. Vazquez can be called up on 9/1/14 to get his work - and then it could be Lavarnway/Vazquez for '15-'16. Perhaps by 9/1/16 Swihart could be ready to go.

I think that's enough youthful talent, and no-hit good field catchers are easy enough to find if we have issues that we can safely step away from Salty.

BGeer091
10-29-2013, 08:24 PM
I agree with you Bags. I would love McCann though. Hes just not in our price range at the moment.

I believe Lavarnway deserves a chance.

Bos_Sports4Life
10-29-2013, 09:18 PM
OK, lost amidst the hoopla of the WS, is the reduced role of Salty. Does this reflect an organizational stance, or just for the WS?

Salty hit well in the 2nd half, up until the Sep/playoffs. He's past being on fumes, so we have a good idea of how many games he can catch a year - which is less than he did.

He continues to throw at or below average. His fielding is meh, and his judgement on bang bang plays isn't good either.

I have to think the Sox at most will offer a QO and hope like crazy someome takes him off our hands - or not - and not sign him. I can't stomach the notion that he could be here for 3-4 more years.

My solution is to go with Ross and Lavarnway next year - giving Lavarnway his chance. If Ross gets hurt or Lavarnway doesn't cut it, we have Vazquez in the wings. Vazquez can be called up on 9/1/14 to get his work - and then it could be Lavarnway/Vazquez for '15-'16. Perhaps by 9/1/16 Swihart could be ready to go.

I think that's enough youthful talent, and no-hit good field catchers are easy enough to find if we have issues that we can safely step away from Salty.

You probably wouldn't like my idea, But I'd try and sign Carlos Ruiz to a 2 yr deal

Next yr- Ruiz 60%/Ross 20%/avarnway 10%

'15- Vazquez 63%/Ruiz 36% (Ruiz is getting older and by '15 will be this yrs ross).

As for salty? I dont want him for multiple yrs and I don't want him for 14 Mill. Last month I figured maybe we could offer the QO and pick up the first rounder...But i think his last 2 months have cost us that opportity.

bagwell368
10-30-2013, 06:31 AM
You probably wouldn't like my idea, But I'd try and sign Carlos Ruiz to a 2 yr deal

Next yr- Ruiz 60%/Ross 20%/avarnway 10%

'15- Vazquez 63%/Ruiz 36% (Ruiz is getting older and by '15 will be this yrs ross).

As for salty? I dont want him for multiple yrs and I don't want him for 14 Mill. Last month I figured maybe we could offer the QO and pick up the first rounder...But i think his last 2 months have cost us that opportity.

Carlos Ruiz is really good, but aging. Two years for him is about $10M, a more expensive option than Lavarnway easily - but clearly more proven and strong on the D. Certainly Ruiz at that price kills Salty at more money. And sadly the Sox are in a tight situation with Salty as you say. He could earn $22.5-27.5M for 3 years from another team w/ no pick easily - however, taking the QO for $14M, plus two years is likely to net him more over three years than just taking the contract.

RedSoxtober
10-30-2013, 11:26 AM
OK, lost amidst the hoopla of the WS, is the reduced role of Salty. Does this reflect an organizational stance, or just for the WS?
I don't think that the switch has been lost on anyone. The switch from Salty to Ross immediately after the horrendous decision to try to get one more out after Pedroia's spectacular play (with Kozma coming up!) was as obvious as Morales' removal to water cooler duty. It' was obvious enough that Farrell addressed it in his presser.


Salty hit well in the 2nd half, up until the Sep/playoffs. He's past being on fumes, so we have a good idea of how many games he can catch a year - which is less than he did.
Previously he was falling off a cliff in May. Getting through the season and still hitting was a revelation. Then again, it was also his walk year. I'm wary of trying to extrapolate 2013 because of that.

This was one of the areas that I most questioned Farrell during the year. While he finished with the same number of games played in 2012 and 2013, in 2012 he had 27 games that he was not catching (13 DH, 14 PH). This year there were only 5 such games. It's no wonder he's toast. I'd figure him for 105 +/-5 to still have something left in the tank in October.


He continues to throw at or below average. His fielding is meh, and his judgement on bang bang plays isn't good either.
I think you're being kind on his throwing. How many times have we been reminded by Buck/McCarver that he was last among MLB catchers? Fortunately the Cards have also been last among MLB teams in SB.


I have to think the Sox at most will offer a QO and hope like crazy someome takes him off our hands - or not - and not sign him. I can't stomach the notion that he could be here for 3-4 more years.

My solution is to go with Ross and Lavarnway next year - giving Lavarnway his chance. If Ross gets hurt or Lavarnway doesn't cut it, we have Vazquez in the wings. Vazquez can be called up on 9/1/14 to get his work - and then it could be Lavarnway/Vazquez for '15-'16. Perhaps by 9/1/16 Swihart could be ready to go.

I think that's enough youthful talent, and no-hit good field catchers are easy enough to find if we have issues that we can safely step away from Salty.
I agree with this EXCEPT for the idea of giving Salty a QO. 2014 is a bubble year for contracts and I'm not sure that I'd want to further complicate that mess by risking a QO on him. If the Sox win one more game then they'll get some latitude for decisions on less prominent players like Salty. Offer him something like $18M/3yr, which he'll beat on the open market, and then move on.

bcc
10-30-2013, 01:26 PM
All due respect because I like the guy and he's a good teammate, but I'm done w/ Saltalamacchia. His at-bats have become flat-out maddening. He has no actual hitting approach and makes zero adjustments. Just waving at the ball from both sides of the plate. Too many scenarios where they just need contact and he feebly goes down swinging. Defensively, he throws out around 18% of his base runners and his UZR is lousy. Go with Ross and a minor free agent/trade next season until Vasquez is ready.
Not giving Middlebrooks a pass but that game-costing throw to 3B in Game 3 is on Salty. 1) He threw it with the winning run at third (a guy he had virtually no shot of getting) with two outs in the 9th inn. of a WS game. Embarrassingly bad decision and he should know better. 2) the more I watch the replay, the more horrific that throw was. WMB had Craig charging at him and practically dove to keep the ball in front of him. Horrible decision by the catcher followed by a horrible throw. And the reason he's benched the remainder of this series.
Time to move on.

BostonSports96
11-03-2013, 12:19 AM
.

BostonSports96
11-03-2013, 12:24 AM
Really hope Salty walks. Can't stand his ineptitude with throwing out runners and swinging at balls in the dirt for strike three.

McCann would be good, but at his price and number of years, his injury history scares me. A batting order 3-4-5 of Ortiz-Napoli-McCann would be great though.

Haven't seen enough of Lavarnway to judge is he's ready to start over a full season.

bagwell368
11-03-2013, 08:23 AM
Haven't seen enough of Lavarnway to judge is he's ready to start over a full season.

No doubt it's a risk. But you have a very strong defensive catcher in the minors coming along. There are also the typical 36 year old good glove not hit sort of guys available as a FA or in a minor trade in case he doesn't do the job. With Lavarnway/Vazquez/Swihart here or in the pipeline to be here by early '15 and mid '16, I don't want any heavy contracts at C, in particular with Ross handling his share of '14. It'll just block Lavarnway and Vazquesz and partially block Swihart.

RedSoxtober
11-04-2013, 09:59 AM
Really hope Salty walks. Can't stand his ineptitude with throwing out runners and swinging at balls in the dirt for strike three.
If Salty could walk then we wouldn't have to debate his value :rimshot:


No doubt it's a risk. But you have a very strong defensive catcher in the minors coming along. There are also the typical 36 year old good glove not hit sort of guys available as a FA or in a minor trade in case he doesn't do the job. With Lavarnway/Vazquez/Swihart here or in the pipeline to be here by early '15 and mid '16, I don't want any heavy contracts at C, in particular with Ross handling his share of '14. It'll just block Lavarnway and Vazquesz and partially block Swihart.

I agree. I think the Sox have bought a LOT of good will and they should employ it to move the organization forward at a few key positions, C being one of them.

TedWilliams9
11-04-2013, 03:17 PM
If Salty could walk then we wouldn't have to debate his value :rimshot:



I agree. I think the Sox have bought a LOT of good will and they should employ it to move the organization forward at a few key positions, C being one of them.



LOLOLOLOL :laugh:

AI
11-04-2013, 03:43 PM
Salty's not receiving a QO, it was the obvious choice to make. He would most likely accept it.

bagwell368
11-04-2013, 03:47 PM
Hopefully we don't have to "watch" Salty in a Red Sox uni anymore - thankfully.

-Lavigne43-
11-05-2013, 12:32 PM
“Obviously a lot of teams have already called,” Saltalamacchia said. “They called the day the World Series ended. It’s really flattering and it makes me realize other teams do appreciate what I’ve done. Now on the other side, it would feel good if the Red Sox … we really haven’t had any conversation with them. It would be nice to have them call and appreciate that as well and show their appreciation by saying, ‘This is what we’re willing to do. We’re willing to go to this, that and the other thing.’ We really haven’t had discussions, but they may call and do that, so maybe I’m premature in saying this. But that’s part of the process and you have to keep an open mind and the same time you have to be humbled enough to realize you’re taking good criticism with the bad criticism and let it play out.

“I’m a little surprised with not more conversation going on just because I thought we had a common idea of where we wanted to be. I put so much time and effort into the team and into the organization and they’ve done the same for me. But like I said, I may be premature and they might call out of nowhere, or might have already called and I just don’t know yet.”

Farewell Salty

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/11/05/jarrod-saltalamacchia-on-red-sox-it-would-be-nice-to-have-them-call/


Also the whole "they called the day the WS ended" thing, Boras said the same. We are supposed to have exclusive negotiating rights until next Monday. Obviously that's never enforced, but it's ridiculous that an agent and player are blatantly saying it.

RedSoxtober
11-05-2013, 01:40 PM
^^ Other teams are not prohibited from CONTACTING a player, they simply cannot negotiate. Other clubs are free to say, "Hey, we're interested if you don't work something out." Only the Sox can offer dollar figures (through today).

bagwell368
11-05-2013, 05:20 PM
I pray Salty goes to NYY. He may hit 25 HR's once or twice, but he'll kill that staff, and his bleech OBP will continue to sap what he does on the SLG side.

grandsalami
11-05-2013, 06:38 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/latest-on-brian-mccann.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Abbott wouldn't comment on whether or not the Red Sox have actually reached out regarding McCann, but Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger reports that the Yankees indeed have contacted Abbott regarding the longtime Braves backstop. McCullough spoke with a pair of rival executives who believe that the bidding for McCann could top $100MM, which would be a stark increase from the five-year, $80MM deal predicted by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes in his free agent profile of McCann.

filihok
11-05-2013, 06:41 PM
If Salty could walk then we wouldn't have to debate his value
Saltalamacchia walks at basically a league average rate.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C&page=3&type=full

grandsalami
11-05-2013, 08:27 PM
timdierkes ‏@timdierkes14s
Hearing Salty and the Red Sox have now spoken about their interest in bringing him back.

https://twitter.com/timdierkes

Lackeyfan41
11-05-2013, 08:59 PM
I feel bad for Salty that he even said he would take a pay cut to return but the sox are not even contacting him. He is a great guy and all but I just don't want anything to do with him.

grandsalami
11-05-2013, 09:18 PM
Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 50s
FWIW, #RedSox have reached out to Jarrod Saltalamacchia's camp.

AI
11-06-2013, 01:29 AM
Let him go, please, for the love of god, no more Salty.

bagwell368
11-06-2013, 07:32 AM
Let him go, please, for the love of god, no more Salty.

PR move to keep players on the team from being restive. Offer him $16M/2 years, and watch him walk away.

RedSoxtober
11-06-2013, 11:23 AM
Saltalamacchia walks at basically a league average rate.
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C&page=3&type=full

I'm sorry, I'll be more specific when I create a joke next time. Let me rephrase so that you'll laugh this time.

"If Salty could walk half as much as he struck out then we wouldn't have to debate his value." :rimshot:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C&page=5&type=full

Kinda loses it's punch.

RedSoxtober
11-06-2013, 11:35 AM
I feel bad for Salty that he even said he would take a pay cut to return but the sox are not even contacting him. He is a great guy and all but I just don't want anything to do with him.

I've read a few articles on him and saw him whining about not having any contact (I put in a lot of work, they put in a lot to me, surprised they didn't get in touch, blah, blah, blah) but nothing about him considering a pay cut to stay. Got a reference for that? I strongly doubt he'd say such a thing when he earned $4.5M and popular conjecture has him at $8M-9M/yr. Or did you mean something like "home team discount"?

filihok
11-06-2013, 11:36 AM
I'm sorry, I'll be more specific when I create a joke next time. Let me rephrase so that you'll laugh this time.

"If Salty could walk half as much as he struck out then we wouldn't have to debate his value." :rimshot:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C&page=5&type=full

Kinda loses it's punch.
Still didn't laugh.

And you're probably wrong.
Mike Trout has walked in 12.5% of his career PA's.
He's struck out in 20.5% of his career PA's.
He has walked over half as often as he has K'd.
His value is still hotly debated.

RedSoxtober
11-06-2013, 12:29 PM
Still didn't laugh.

And you're probably wrong.
Mike Trout has walked in 12.5% of his career PA's.
He's struck out in 20.5% of his career PA's.
He has walked over half as often as he has K'd.
His value is still hotly debated.

I'm not surprised.

Pittz
11-06-2013, 01:05 PM
Still didn't laugh.

And you're probably wrong.
Mike Trout has walked in 12.5% of his career PA's.
He's struck out in 20.5% of his career PA's.
He has walked over half as often as he has K'd.
His value is still hotly debated.

Seriously, I avoid the MLB forum in part because of your posts, are you actually a Red Sox fan or trolling?

AI
11-06-2013, 01:51 PM
Seriously, I avoid the MLB forum in part because of your posts, are you actually a Red Sox fan or trolling?

Yeah, it's starting to get quite annoying.

bagwell368
11-06-2013, 06:30 PM
AI, Pittz, RST, Bags finding fault with the perfectionistic poster of the projections of another... we don't agree all that often, must be significant.

Maybe the "North Country" pathogen was spread...?

AI
11-06-2013, 11:20 PM
AI, Pittz, RST, Bags finding fault with the perfectionistic poster of the projections of another... we don't agree all that often, must be significant.

Maybe the "North Country" pathogen was spread...?

Oh, it definitely has.

Lackeyfan41
11-07-2013, 12:29 AM
I've read a few articles on him and saw him whining about not having any contact (I put in a lot of work, they put in a lot to me, surprised they didn't get in touch, blah, blah, blah) but nothing about him considering a pay cut to stay. Got a reference for that? I strongly doubt he'd say such a thing when he earned $4.5M and popular conjecture has him at $8M-9M/yr. Or did you mean something like "home team discount"?

Saltalamacchia went on to say that he felt lucky to be able to go to Fenway Park for work each day for the four years he spent in Boston, and that his preference is to remain with the Red Sox. Saltalamacchia went so far as to say that as long as the offers were close, he'd turn down a larger offer from another team to stay in Boston.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/no-talks-yet-between-saltalamacchia-red-sox.html

Take that for what it is worth, but I hope we don't come too close to the best offer he has on the table.

PatsSoxKnicks
11-07-2013, 01:54 AM
Bare with me here but I was checking out Keith Law's top 50 Free Agents (I have no idea why but I'm thankful cause it led me to some very interesting research) and he mentioned pitch framing ability a few times. So I was wondering if there had been a sabermetric study done in pitch framing so I googled it and of course there was. A lot of the main research seemed to take place back in 2011 so I have no idea if this stuff is still being tracked (I imagine it is, will google it) but back in 2011, it appears Salty had one of the better pitch framing abilities among Catchers. Moreover, it appears that ability is VERY understated. If you're Jose Molina, you can save about 35 runs per 120 games in pitch framing. Not sure what the runs to wins conversion rate is (if someone knows they can calculate it). Anyways, this was done as of 2011 but Salty was pretty high up there with 10 runs saved per 120 games. I haven't read through all the articles (the analysis requires me to be more alert than I am now) but I'm pretty sure they said that this is a fairly consistent ability and it doesn't vary much (like say BABIP might). So if Salty does have this ability, it may be worth keeping him around despite his bad defense and meh bat. Of course this was as of 2011 so let me see if I can find the pitch framing rates as of last year. It appears to be a very important aspect of catching though.

Here's the Grantland article on it btw: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9275754/

PS- Ross is one of the best at pitch framing and for those interested in McCann, he's very good too.

Er, a more recent article (beginning of 2012) that uses 4 years of data has McCann at the very top with Ross up there as well (too bad he can't play a full season :sigh:): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16006

Guess my 35 runs per 120 games was a bit off, it's more like 70 runs per season, which I guess can be as much as 6 wins per season. Also, it appears of all the aspects of catcher defense, framing pitches appears to be BY FAR the most important.

AI
11-07-2013, 02:12 AM
PSK thanks for posting that, but it's probably a fluke. Salty tends to "stab" at the ball and is subpar when it comes to framing/receiving pitches, it's been a matter that has been discussed countless times in this forum. He makes a lot of pitches that are really strikes, look like balls due to the fact that he almost always stabs at the ball. The simple eye test will tell you this, plus the results are also there, Bags has gone into full detail about how much worse the SP's #'s have been with Salty behind the plate compared to that of the other catchers in Shoppach, Varitek, Ross, Lavarnway, etc. Not to mention, he's a subpar thrower, baserunners run on him like crazy and he leaves a lot to be desired as well when it comes to "calling a game".

Vincent33
11-07-2013, 07:41 AM
The good news is that at the end of the day, Mr. Saltalamacchia will be donning another team's jersey starting the 2014-2015 season. So hooray for that.

bagwell368
11-07-2013, 08:52 AM
I don't have time at the moment to read up on the pitch framing data, but, it's an interesting idea, next thing to figure out is how they judged it (was the design sound), and how much was open to human error in recording the data.

It is true that with Tek, Ross, and Shoppach to compare him to, he might have been held to a high standard. It's also true that his reputation as a good hit/meh field catcher has carried over into the judgements on him.

Even if he turns out to be a good framer, it doesn't mean it carries over into other areas of his defensive game. The best tell all would be ERA/FIP/DERA or whatever Prospectus calls it now vs his catching mates and the same pitchers. Sample size could be an issue (tossing out his first couple of years of very few games played). The career aggregate would be key metric to look at.

RedSoxtober
11-07-2013, 10:33 AM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/no-talks-yet-between-saltalamacchia-red-sox.html

Take that for what it is worth, but I hope we don't come too close to the best offer he has on the table.
Thanks for the link. I hadn't seen that. It's not quite the idea of taking a discount but it does reflect the human/personal side of contract decisions.

-Lavigne43-
11-07-2013, 01:57 PM
Funny, fangraphs put an article listing the pitch framer free agent leaders. Assuming accuracy, Salty is basically average according to this (assuming 0 is average). It only really matters if you get a ton of strikes called for you, or a ton of strikes not called. Up to a half a strike per game difference probably doesn't make any difference over the course of a season. Pitch calling is much more important.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2013-2014-offseason-guide-to-free-agent-pitch-framers/

Lackeyfan41
11-07-2013, 09:46 PM
Funny, fangraphs put an article listing the pitch framer free agent leaders. Assuming accuracy, Salty is basically average according to this (assuming 0 is average). It only really matters if you get a ton of strikes called for you, or a ton of strikes not called. Up to a half a strike per game difference probably doesn't make any difference over the course of a season. Pitch calling is much more important.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2013-2014-offseason-guide-to-free-agent-pitch-framers/

Interesting... Salty is not too bad then. Even if we added someone like Jose Molina (we won't), his framing will only get us about 2 more strikes a game. That won't do really anything...

I wondered if the chart would be different if they measured high stress pitches, compared to counting every pitch the same.
For example, Salty can be tense and stab at the ball during a high stress pitch, while Molina could be smooth.
Or --- Molina and Salty could be the same during a high stress pitch, and Molina gets the majority of his framed strike calls on the first pitch of a not terribly important AB.

grandsalami
11-07-2013, 10:09 PM
Funny, fangraphs put an article listing the pitch framer free agent leaders. Assuming accuracy, Salty is basically average according to this (assuming 0 is average). It only really matters if you get a ton of strikes called for you, or a ton of strikes not called. Up to a half a strike per game difference probably doesn't make any difference over the course of a season. Pitch calling is much more important.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2013-2014-offseason-guide-to-free-agent-pitch-framers/
TBH I would rather have salty on a short term deal, then overpay for McCann

-Lavigne43-
11-08-2013, 01:17 AM
Ruiz to me looks exactly like one of the signings we made last year. He had 4 very good years in a row before last year. Try to give him the Drew 1 year deal

filihok
11-08-2013, 04:17 AM
Funny, fangraphs put an article listing the pitch framer free agent leaders. Assuming accuracy, Salty is basically average according to this (assuming 0 is average). It only really matters if you get a ton of strikes called for you, or a ton of strikes not called. Up to a half a strike per game difference probably doesn't make any difference over the course of a season. Pitch calling is much more important.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2013-2014-offseason-guide-to-free-agent-pitch-framers/
Matt Klaasen, who also writes for FanGraphs, puts out his own catcher defense ratings based on throwing runners out, preventing wild pitches and passed balls, and errors.

From August
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2013/08/29/fogging-the-measure-catcher-defense-ratings-august-29-2013/

Saltalamacchia also rated just a bit below average (-1.4 runs).

bagwell368
11-08-2013, 07:01 AM
Ruiz to me looks exactly like one of the signings we made last year. He had 4 very good years in a row before last year. Try to give him the Drew 1 year deal

Or a compromise. 1 year at $9M, option 2nd year at $8M if Ruiz plays in > 85 games or $1M buyout

RedSoxtober
11-08-2013, 09:50 AM
Ruiz to me looks exactly like one of the signings we made last year. He had 4 very good years in a row before last year. Try to give him the Drew 1 year deal
I've been thinking the same thing though I might take him on a 2yr deal.


Matt Klaasen, who also writes for FanGraphs, puts out his own catcher defense ratings based on throwing runners out, preventing wild pitches and passed balls, and errors.

From August
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2013/08/29/fogging-the-measure-catcher-defense-ratings-august-29-2013/

Saltalamacchia also rated just a bit below average (-1.4 runs).

Salty is #76 of 101 catchers but "just a bit below average"? Perhaps the numbers don't mean quite what you mean or the methodology is flawed.

filihok
11-08-2013, 10:07 AM
Salty is #76 of 101 catchers but "just a bit below average"? Perhaps the numbers don't mean quite what you mean or the methodology is flawed.
A third option: you've confused median (http://www.mathsisfun.com/median.html) and mean (http://www.mathsisfun.com/definitions/mean.html).

bagwell368
11-08-2013, 10:14 AM
4th option. Salty isn't being signed here, so it's academic - and he's below average and below mean.

RedSoxtober
11-08-2013, 02:50 PM
A third option: you've confused median (http://www.mathsisfun.com/median.html) and mean (http://www.mathsisfun.com/definitions/mean.html).

When the writer himself says "For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season." then you may be reading too much into the data. Why the disclaimer? Because he makes a number of assumptions in the analysis that may not hold. For example, what happens if the catcher has a throwing error on a stolen base attempt? The two events are no longer IID yet he must assume that they are for the purposes of his analysis (that's the only way he can add them up). I'd also suggest that the probability of scoring a run also goes up significantly more than what he suggests in that scenario.

Personally I'm not convinced that analysis properly ascribes an actual number of runs to the defensive aptitude of a catcher. Do you REALLY believe that Salty's defense only cost the Red Sox ONE run this year?

I guess that was the run he gave up on the infamous obstruction play. Crappy timing in his part to choose such a crucial time to give up just one run all season from his suspect defending.

Sarge
11-08-2013, 03:01 PM
When the writer himself says "For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season." then you may be reading too much into the data. Why the disclaimer? Because he makes a number of assumptions in the analysis that may not hold. For example, what happens if the catcher has a throwing error on a stolen base attempt? The two events are no longer IID yet he must assume that they are for the purposes of his analysis (that's the only way he can add them up). I'd also suggest that the probability of scoring a run also goes up significantly more than what he suggests in that scenario.

Personally I'm not convinced that analysis properly ascribes an actual number of runs to the defensive aptitude of a catcher. Do you REALLY believe that Salty's defense only cost the Red Sox ONE run this year?

I guess that was the run he gave up on the infamous obstruction play. Crappy timing in his part to choose such a crucial time to give up just one run all season from his suspect defending.

I'm sure he will argue that playoff stats don't count into these projections.

filihok
11-08-2013, 03:16 PM
When the writer himself says "For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season." then you may be reading too much into the data.
This has nothing to do with mean/median and you have no idea what I've read into the data.


Why the disclaimer?
Because he's not claiming to know more than he actually knows unlike so many others and it is sound practice to be upfront with disclaimers and assumptions


Personally I'm not convinced that analysis properly ascribes an actual number of runs to the defensive aptitude of a catcher. Do you REALLY believe that Salty's defense only cost the Red Sox ONE run this year?

I guess that was the run he gave up on the infamous obstruction play. Crappy timing in his part to choose such a crucial time to give up just one run all season from his suspect defending.
Clever, except that it's not.
Saltalamacchia, like every player, has multiple plays which produce negative value, and multiple plays which produce positive value.

Those plays, as measured by the process described in the article, add up to negative 1 (and a fraction of another) run.



I'm sure he will argue that playoff stats don't count into these projections.
I'll argue that
1) they aren't projections
2) they are measures
3) no, the playoffs weren't counted since the article was written in August.

bagwell368
11-08-2013, 03:22 PM
FG's stat value for catching has proven to be weak in a number of cases over the past 10 years vs BR.

This year BR has Salty at -7 Rdrs/yr (~135 games), while FG has Salty at +7.3. Anyone that watched Salty catch over 250 innings throughout the year would never finger him as a + catcher, it's rubbish - or slavish reliance on stats - or both.

Prospectus obviously doesn't gather enough stats and/or value them properly. Salty's FRAA this year -0.3. Tek has 8 years below that figure, even in years when he was stellar. I've found FRAA useful for other positions, but it seems to screw up catchers. It's got Fisk almost as highly rated as Gary Carter (glove only) - take it from me, that's a joke. Carter was much better.

bagwell368
11-08-2013, 03:29 PM
3) no, the playoffs weren't counted since the article was written in August.

So then, until stats are provided to cover the missing data after August 29 (or earlier since the data may not have been updated on August 29th) you are arguing incomplete stats.

I require a citation containing the full report.

filihok
11-08-2013, 03:41 PM
So then, until stats are provided to cover the missing data after August 29 (or earlier since the data may not have been updated on August 29th) you are arguing incomplete stats.

I require a citation containing the full report.
You require? LOL

Was it you who said that you had watched 75% of Saltalamacchia's games this year? Why are your demands so much less rigorous in that instance?


The stats provided are through August 28th (or 29th, whatever, I'm not going to go back and check). They assumptions used to create the metric were clearly stated. No claims beyond those have been made.

Sarge
11-08-2013, 04:03 PM
So then, until stats are provided to cover the missing data after August 29 (or earlier since the data may not have been updated on August 29th) you are arguing incomplete stats.

I require a citation containing the full report.

I think a full report is necessary to fully understand all of these measurements as well. Good call.

bagwell368
11-08-2013, 04:56 PM
You require? LOL

Yes the imperious tone was a back at you... so pleased you picked it up.


Was it you who said that you had watched 75% of Saltalamacchia's games this year? Why are your demands so much less rigorous in that instance?

The producer doesn't always supply shots to the viewer which concentrate on catcher play at all times - far from it. Therefore it would be ridiculous to claim that I watched 100% of everything Salty did 75% of the time? Of course it would. Upon further consideration I watched 25.786464612% of JS's play sufficient to form my considered opinions of his play.


The stats provided are through August 28th (or 29th, whatever, I'm not going to go back and check). They assumptions used to create the metric were clearly stated. No claims beyond those have been made.

That's nice. I'm afraid the BR's valuation on his entire year seems well more accurate than FG's or Prospectus's and pending any convincing arguments using full season data to the contrary, I'm as set with my view as you seem to be with yours.

filihok
11-08-2013, 07:27 PM
Yes the imperious tone was a back at you... so pleased you picked it up.
Back at me?
My statement that the article was written before the playoffs was not intended to contain any imperious tone.



The producer doesn't always supply shots to the viewer which concentrate on catcher play at all times - far from it. Therefore it would be ridiculous to claim that I watched 100% of everything Salty did 75% of the time? Of course it would. Upon further consideration I watched 25.786464612% of JS's play sufficient to form my considered opinions of his play.
How do you figure that 5/6 (roughly) of a season's worth of data is insufficient but just over a quarter season's worth or watching on TV is?


I'm as set with my view as you seem to be with yours.
Good to see that you are open to new ideas presented with relevant support.

MG956
11-08-2013, 08:03 PM
Back at me?
My statement that the article was written before the playoffs was not intended to contain any imperious tone.



How do you figure that 5/6 (roughly) of a season's worth of data is insufficient but just over a quarter season's worth or watching on TV is?


Good to see that you are open to new ideas presented with relevant support.

For the last week all I see is you arguing. What's up with that? It gets to the point of being annoying if that is all you are bringing to the table. What really concerns me is that when someone comes along just picking fights posts that I want to see get buried pages down under all of your dribble.

IDGARA about whether your stats are better than others at this point because you have just become a bother. If I wanted to be bothered I'd get married again.

Since we are on the Salty thread I'll tell you all you need to know about Salty. He was frustrating to alot of people but he was cheap, and we weren't going anywhere. Now that he is a free agent we will not pay what another team will so he is gone.

filihok
11-08-2013, 08:09 PM
I'll tell you all you need to know about Salty.
Please don't presume to know all that I need to know. I'll make that decision for myself, thanks. You may be satisfied with that 'dribble' but I prefer something with more substance.

bagwell368
11-08-2013, 10:28 PM
Back at me?
My statement that the article was written before the playoffs was not intended to contain any imperious tone.

It didn't and it wasn't what I was referring too.

Does anyone recall "The Matrix" when the Oracle says to Neo "Not too bright though". Bingo.


How do you figure that 5/6 (roughly) of a season's worth of data is insufficient but just over a quarter season's worth or watching on TV is?

Because I found lots of bizarre defensive metric scores for catchers among Prospectus and FG (dozens more than I brought up today over the past 5 years or so) and much less so with BR. BR calls foul on the notion of Salty as a good defensive catcher in 2013, and that squares with what I observed.


Good to see that you are open to new ideas presented with relevant support.

Oh my Mr. Kettle, you really are too much.

As I advise users from time to time the way to deal with troll is not to feed them, might be time to take my own advice.

filihok
11-09-2013, 01:35 AM
BR calls foul on the notion of Salty as a good defensive catcher in 2013, and that squares with what I observed.
Has anyone argued otherwise?

Lackeyfan41
11-09-2013, 02:04 AM
Ryan Hanigan seems like he is going to be traded.

Hanigan slipped under .200 AVG in limited time last year due to injury. But his lines seem to match up with his carer average.

His Line Drive, Fly Ball and Ground Ball% were basically carer average, other than a high infield popup rate which should be because of the injury to his left wrist.

He has a carer OBP of .360, and would be in his walk year. Also can be counted on for good defense and has worked well with the Reds pitchers.

I don't think it would take much to get him from the reds, I really like him but I don't know if Ross/Hanigan/Lavarnway is enough...

MG956
11-12-2013, 05:24 PM
I just had a stupid idea. Why don't we offer Salty a contract for like 5 yrs/ 40 mil, plus bonus'?

Salty was always good because he was cheap, so why not try to get him cheap? Reel him in with the home town love & incention bonuses that his ego will think he can cash in.

This is a business and we are in a position to buy this guy cheaper than anyone else. Short term the catcher position is solved while we buy some time to feel out our in house guys. Long term we have a nice valuable trade chip in our pocket.

bagwell368
11-12-2013, 05:31 PM
I just had a stupid idea. Why don't we offer Salty a contract for like 5 yrs/ 40 mil, plus bonus'?

Salty was always good because he was cheap, so why not try to get him cheap? Reel him in with the home town love & incention bonuses that his ego will think he can cash in.

This is a business and we are in a position to buy this guy cheaper than anyone else. Short term the catcher position is solved while we buy some time to feel out our in house guys. Long term we have a nice valuable trade chip in our pocket.

No. Thanks.

RedSoxtober
11-12-2013, 05:36 PM
Meh, $8M/yr is not really buying Salty cheap (avg salary for catchers in 2011 was $2.2M). Besides, hooking up with him over 5yrs with Lavarnway, Vazquez, and Swihart in the wings seems very shortsighted.