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View Full Version : Monte Carlo Simulation to Answer Lebron's Question (A 2 or a 3)



Guppyfighter
04-25-2013, 04:04 PM
https://www.khanacademy.org/science/lebron-asks/v/monte-carlo-simulation-to-answer-lebron-s-question

Obligatory: We are getting to the point where not just front offices use advanced stats, but most of the top players do as well.

Anyways, the video is ****ing awesome.

IKnowHoops
04-25-2013, 04:48 PM
https://www.khanacademy.org/science/lebron-asks/v/monte-carlo-simulation-to-answer-lebron-s-question

Obligatory: We are getting to the point where not just front offices use advanced stats, but most of the top players do as well.

Anyways, the video is ****ing awesome.

Thats pretty cool. If this is why KD hired and analytics guy, I totally understand.

KnicksorBust
04-25-2013, 07:00 PM
I've actually seen this before. The part that really irritates me is that the two trials that he runs are based on either:

A 25% 3pt shot / 60% 2pt shot
or
A 35% 3pt shot / 40% 2pt shot.

These are not realistic percentages for him to be testing.

Hawkeye15
04-25-2013, 07:11 PM
I've actually seen this before. The part that really irritates me is that the two trials that he runs are based on either:

A 25% 3pt shot / 60% 2pt shot
or
A 35% 3pt shot / 40% 2pt shot.

These are not realistic percentages for him to be testing.

yep, but interesting none the less.

NoahH
04-26-2013, 10:46 AM
Super interesting. The title doesnt do the thread justice so no one is responding lol

Honestly the 25% 3 and 60% 2 is a pretty reasonable percentage for LeBron's last second plays. If he's taking a three it'll probably be a pull up over a defender and if he takes a 2 he'll drive and most likely get an easy-ish lay in.

dhopisthename
04-26-2013, 12:17 PM
if you don't like ther percentages run them yourself.
http://www.khanacademy.org/cs/basketball-decisions/1024155511

Patman
04-26-2013, 12:36 PM
I've actually seen this before. The part that really irritates me is that the two trials that he runs are based on either:

A 25% 3pt shot / 60% 2pt shot
or
A 35% 3pt shot / 40% 2pt shot.

These are not realistic percentages for him to be testing.


Yeah but the numbers do a good job of illustrating how it changes if you have a good 3PT shooter and so on, it makes sure that you have a significant difference between the two simulation. You can run your own numbers see the link in dhopeisthenames post