PDA

View Full Version : Who's most likely to break Kareem's all-time regular season scoring record?



mrblisterdundee
03-30-2013, 10:32 PM
I saw a 5-on-5 on ESPN talking about breakable and unbreakable records (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-130329/which-nba-records-made-broken). All but one commentator declared Kareem's record of 38,387 points breakable. It was the most accessible record in the entire piece.
My choice is Kevin Durant. He's played 453 regular season games and scored 12,045 points – he needs 26,342 more points and 1,107 games left to match Kareem's scoring and career length. He could do it by collectively averaging approximately 23.8 points per game over the next 13.5 seasons.
He'd be right about 38 years old at that point, and his style of play, similar to Reggie Miller's, Larry Bird's and Dirk Nowitzki's, can keep him going a long time.
Kobe Bryant has 6,972 points and 328 games to match Kareem – he could do it by collectively averaging 21.3 points per game for the next four full seasons. LeBron has 17,405 points and 799 games – a 21.8 point-per-game average over 9.75 seasons.
Every one of them would be about 38 or 39 years old. I'm not posting a poll or anything, because you could potentially make an argument for many different players.

hidalgo
03-30-2013, 11:13 PM
Kobe Bryant will do it, no queston about it

D-Leethal
03-30-2013, 11:17 PM
Hit the return button twice.

NYMetros
03-30-2013, 11:22 PM
Kobe's gonna break it and it's not even gonna be close.

Cromedome
03-30-2013, 11:24 PM
If Kobe doesn't retire in the next year or so..then he'll have a good chance at breaking the sky hook record. If not, then my second choice is Durant (if Westbrook doesn't player hate).

Utd7
03-30-2013, 11:26 PM
Kobe. I hope he doesn't retire after next season so he can make a legit run at it.

MarkieMark48
03-30-2013, 11:32 PM
kobe, lebron and durant all could. it just depends on how long they want to play

FraziersKnicks
03-30-2013, 11:33 PM
I don't think Kobe's ego will allow him to do it, which is strange since being the all-time points leader would be a massive boost for his ego.

Kobe will never want to be a role player, but his body will force him into that role within two years I can imagine. I think he'd rather retire than play 20 minutes off the bench and hurt his PPG stats. He could realistically average 25 for the next two years (which would put him at about 35,000), but he'll be 36 going on 37. Say he averages 2,500 minutes a season, that will put him over 58,000 minutes for his career, 3rd all-time behind Malone and Kareem, when he's nearly 37. He's not gonna have it in him to be able to play 35 minutes a game, but he also won't have it in him to accept a role off the bench.

He's already come out on record saying he's retiring "soon" which very well could be at the end of this contract in 2014, but I really can't see Kobe doing it.

The two players with the best chance are LeBron and KD. LeBron is on pace to hit 32,000 in 5 years, when he's 33. If he could then average 20 a game until he's 36/37, he would be at 38,000. Say he decided to become a role player and extend his career until his late 30's, he would be near Kareem's record if he could average 15 a game from 33-38 he would break Kareem's record. I realistically think LeBron will average 25+ until 32/33, and then about 20 a game until he's about 35, he would only need to average around 12 a game until he's 38 to break the record.

Lot's of if's and maybe's but I think he has the best chance.

AnthonyTyrael
03-31-2013, 07:30 AM
Kobe could average 30 points this year and the years before also if he wanted and the Lakers, the club, the franchise, the team...nobody would say a word if he would do it no matter what. I don't see him slowing down at scoring. It's like with Duncan. His minutes and himself, what he decides to do on court, that's slowing him down - maybe - but not his body. I also don't see him retire soon. He said he might just to say the opposite weeks later and this guy is the most competetive athlete in american sports besides his age and exactly that, his age and all thsi talking, might lift him up again. On the other side, he could quit anyday, not caring anymore but he's made of something else.

Sure Bron, Durant can beat Kareem. Someone will. Won't be as difficult to beat as the all time rebounds, assists or blocks record so it's going to happen within the next two decades. Rebounds and assists are almost untouchable for ages to come. Cemented in stone or however this phrase goes.

RiceOnTheRun
04-01-2013, 03:57 AM
Personally I see KD doing it. You say he'd have to average around 24 ppg for him to hit that but I see his ppg increasing or remaining steady for the next 5-7 years. He'll hit 30 then it'll slowly begin to decline but I don't see it going below Kobe at any point until 34-35. If Kobe can average what he does at his age with bone spurs in his foot, KD is gonna be just as good if not better around his age. Also, sports health is getting better and KD takes good care of himself as far as I know. He doesn't need to kill himself for his franchise because he has another top scoring option in Westbrook so I see him having a nice long career. Hopefully.

JEDean89
04-01-2013, 04:03 AM
Lebron is the only player out of the 3 whose body will hold up. KD hasn't had any serious injuries but he just doesn't look like the player who can play til he's 40. 39,000 points is a lot to score Lebron will be around 37-38 when he passes Kareem and that's if he scores at the rate of his 1st 10 years.

HowFit
04-01-2013, 04:26 AM
Very possible for Kobe and Lebron to do it, maybe Durant...

RapOZo
04-01-2013, 11:27 AM
I don't think Kobe's ego will allow him to do it, which is strange since being the all-time points leader would be a massive boost for his ego.

Kobe will never want to be a role player, but his body will force him into that role within two years I can imagine. I think he'd rather retire than play 20 minutes off the bench and hurt his PPG stats. He could realistically average 25 for the next two years (which would put him at about 35,000), but he'll be 36 going on 37. .

I don't know why you keep having this idea that an older (35-37) Kobe Bryant will have to inevitably come off the bench,
you are assuming Kobe won't score 18 ppg, and the LAKERS are going to find a 20+ ppg SG in the next 4 years.
that's just hate driven opinions, I don't think that's likely to happen.

RapOZo
04-01-2013, 11:35 AM
Lebron is the only player out of the 3 whose body will hold up. KD hasn't had any serious injuries but he just doesn't look like the player who can play til he's 40. 39,000 points is a lot to score Lebron will be around 37-38 when he passes Kareem and that's if he scores at the rate of his 1st 10 years.
Lebron's scoring efficiency is based on speed and strength, at 30+ that start to decline, I doubt he average 20+ once he reaches 30-32

todu82
04-01-2013, 11:42 AM
I think Lebron will do it.

KnicksorBust
04-01-2013, 11:42 AM
Lebron's scoring efficiency is based on speed and strength, at 30+ that start to decline, I doubt he average 20+ once he reaches 30-32

Yeah I'll never forget that time Tim Duncan turned 31 and his muscles fell off.

I'm assuming you mean speed and athleticism and in which case you'd still be wrong because LeBron has a complete game now. He can score in every way imaginable including post-ups and spot-up shooting. He'll be on cruise control into his mid 30s.

Oh and in case it wasn't obvious... I say LeBron breaks the record.

Kobe2324
04-01-2013, 11:48 AM
I think all 3 could do it but it's more about if they want to play that long, we can all agree Kobe could do this no problem with his work ethic and his basketball IQ but it dosn't sound like he wants to play much longer, same thing with the other 2, if they want to play until 37-40 years old of course they can pass kareem and i would agree, of all records this is the one that is most reachable...

nickdymez
04-01-2013, 12:15 PM
Kobe or KD... Lebron depends on running over the defender to get a majority of his points.

koberulesall
04-01-2013, 12:19 PM
if kobe doesnt do it nobody will PERIOD

koberulesall
04-01-2013, 12:20 PM
Kobe or KD... Lebron depends on running over the defender to get a majority of his points.

which is why everyone i know hates lebron anyone else in the league gets called for an offensive foul

FraziersKnicks
04-01-2013, 12:24 PM
Lebron's scoring efficiency is based on speed and strength, at 30+ that start to decline, I doubt he average 20+ once he reaches 30-32

Evidence that someone doesn't watch LeBron play.... :rolleyes:

FraziersKnicks
04-01-2013, 12:26 PM
Yeah I'll never forget that time Tim Duncan turned 31 and his muscles fell off.

I'm assuming you mean speed and athleticism and in which case you'd still be wrong because LeBron has a complete game now. He can score in every way imaginable including post-ups and spot-up shooting. He'll be on cruise control into his mid 30s.

Oh and in case it wasn't obvious... I say LeBron breaks the record.

:laugh2:

Basically summed up exactly what I was thinking.

FraziersKnicks
04-01-2013, 12:26 PM
Kobe or KD... Lebron depends on running over the defender to get a majority of his points.

Why do you post in an NBA forum if you don't watch the NBA? Honest question.

DDynO
04-01-2013, 12:32 PM
Lebron James.

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 12:43 PM
Kobe will, but then it will be broken by LeBron. He came straight out of high school and has averaged 20+ every season, and plays more than 95% of games per season. He averaged 30+ twice, and has a career average of 27.6. Durant lost a year at Texas, and, with his body I believe he could be more injury prone (even though I have no evidence). But being a year behind LeBron is a big one.

Also, surprisingly, Durant averages a whole point less than LeBron in career average at 26.6.

I do, however, believe that Durant's game will hold up better than LeBron's through age.

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 12:46 PM
Here is my prediction:

When I say retire I do not mean he retires right after. Just marking the end of career.

Kobe breaks it. Retires.
LeBron breaks Kobe's record. Retires.
Durant breaks Kareem's old record. Retires.

So the new all time point leaders will be in the end: LeBron, Kobe, Durant, Kareem

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 12:50 PM
Last post. For all you Kobe fans.

Kobe took 3 seasons to average 20+ while LeBron took 0.

Kobe averages a whole 2 points less than LeBron in career average and has missed many more games

nickdymez
04-01-2013, 01:00 PM
Why do you post in an NBA forum if you don't watch the NBA? Honest question.

Are you trying to tell me that Lebron doesnt get most of his baskets from within 15-17 feet?

nickdymez
04-01-2013, 01:01 PM
Last post. For all you Kobe fans.

Kobe took 3 seasons to average 20+ while LeBron took 0.

Kobe averages a whole 2 points less than LeBron in career average and has missed many more games

Kobe came into the league with a much better team than Lebron did. I believe he had 3 other all-stars on his team. So try again buddy..

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 01:05 PM
Kobe came into the league with a much better team than Lebron did. I believe he had 3 other all-stars on his team. So try again buddy..

And your point? I know that, my argument is about the topic... the point leaders...

ILLUSIONIST^248
04-01-2013, 01:06 PM
Here is my prediction:

When I say retire I do not mean he retires right after. Just marking the end of career.

Kobe breaks it. Retires.
LeBron breaks Kobe's record. Retires.
Durant breaks Kareem's old record. Retires.

So the new all time point leaders will be in the end: LeBron, Kobe, Durant, Kareem

No chance this happens.

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 01:08 PM
Also Nick, through your other posts... I have come to the conclusion that you're uneducated basketball-wise and you feed off the opinions of media/friends. Go watch a game for once and develop your own opinions through what you see, not what the media says.

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 01:10 PM
No chance this happens.

It's a prediction, and why can't it? Kareem averaged 24.6. These guys all average more. And with foul calls the way they are nowadays (protecting players, adding breaks in the game, higher point averages) I can see all three of these guys passing up Kareem.

nickdymez
04-01-2013, 01:12 PM
And your point? I know that, my argument is about the topic... the point leaders...

I dont get why putting how many seasons it took for Kobe to average a certain amount of points is relavent without context. And I coach basketball, just because I dont come on here and write paragraph upon paragraph of advanced stats and other jargen, doesnt mean im not a knowledgeable basketball fan. I dont think your're a knowledgeable fan either because i dont agree with you. See how that works? And I rarely watch ESPN. I listen to Dan Patrick in the morning and Max Kellerman and Marcellus Wiley in the afternoon. Thats the extent of my media intake

Stinkyoutsider
04-01-2013, 01:16 PM
You know, it's interesting that all the guys we're talking about (Kobe, Durant, James) all are straight out of high school. With the exception of Garnett, I don't know any player out of high school who played at 37 or 38?

I would like to say Kobe will be the first to break it but honestly, I don't think he's going to hang around for it. I think he's happy if he gets his 6th title and retire. I do think he'll continue to be around until he gets it. Even if he's already telling people he's leaving in 2 years...

After Kobe, I really think Durant has the best chance because of his style of play.

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 01:17 PM
I dont get why putting how many seasons it took for Kobe to average a certain amount of points is relavent without context. And I coach basketball, just because I dont come on here and write paragraph upon paragraph of advanced stats and other jargen, doesnt mean im not a knowledgeable basketball fan. I dont think your're a knowledgeable fan either because i dont agree with you. See how that works? And I rarely watch ESPN. I listen to Dan Patrick in the morning and Max Kellerman and Marcellus Wiley in the afternoon. Thats the extent of my media intake

Once again. You're straying way off topic. This topic is about who will be the point leaders when it's all said and done. Kobe was hurt in his first three seasons in this race because he didn't get to play nearly as much as LeBron.

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 01:18 PM
You know, it's interesting that all the guys we're talking about (Kobe, Durant, James) all are straight out of high school. With the exception of Garnett, I don't know any player out of high school who played at 37 or 38?

I would like to say Kobe will be the first to break it but honestly, I don't think he's going to hang around for it. I think he's happy if he gets his 6th title and retire. I do think he'll continue to be around until he gets it. Even if he's already telling people he's leaving in 2 years...

After Kobe, I really think Durant has the best chance because of his style of play.

Remember when Durant played at Texas? Lol

nickdymez
04-01-2013, 01:36 PM
Once again. You're straying way off topic. This topic is about who will be the point leaders when it's all said and done. Kobe was hurt in his first three seasons in this race because he didn't get to play nearly as much as LeBron.

lol, Ok so your just stating the obvious. I've been on topic this whole thread. I think Kobe and Durant have the best chance right now becaus of the their game. Lebrons game to me doesnt show any signs of him being a elite scorer when his athletisism fades. I could be wrong.

xRipCity
04-01-2013, 01:55 PM
Keep in mind LeBron averages more than the both of them. I know it seems odd, but he does

nickdymez
04-01-2013, 02:01 PM
Keep in mind LeBron averages more than the both of them. I know it seems odd, but he does

More what?

ILLUSIONIST^248
04-01-2013, 02:17 PM
It's a prediction, and why can't it? Kareem averaged 24.6. These guys all average more. And with foul calls the way they are nowadays (protecting players, adding breaks in the game, higher point averages) I can see all three of these guys passing up Kareem.

Kareem played for 20 seasons. Can Lebron and Durant?

Chronz
04-01-2013, 06:26 PM
Whoever plays till they are 40

bagwell368
04-01-2013, 09:58 PM
I saw a 5-on-5 on ESPN talking about breakable and unbreakable records (http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-on-5-130329/which-nba-records-made-broken). All but one commentator declared Kareem's record of 38,387 points breakable. It was the most accessible record in the entire piece.
My choice is Kevin Durant. He's played 453 regular season games and scored 12,045 points – he needs 26,342 more points and 1,107 games left to match Kareem's scoring and career length. He could do it by collectively averaging approximately 23.8 points per game over the next 13.5 seasons.

So, no accout for decline?


He'd be right about 38 years old at that point, and his style of play, similar to Reggie Miller's, Larry Bird's and Dirk Nowitzki's, can keep him going a long time.

Bird got a lot of his points inside. If the outside shooting was what you were going for.

hidalgo
04-01-2013, 10:31 PM
Kobe will play at least 4 more years after this year. just watch. he just wants attention talking about retiring, "ohhh pweeease don't go KB!". the sooner he leaves the better imo, i'm pukey sick of him, biggest d-bag in nba history by far. but he will play until he's 38 at least, & break Kareem's record. i also think he has a deep hatred for MJ, & will do anything to tie or pass him in titles, though he's too dumb to know his 3 2nd fiddle titles mean way less than titles as the man, & too dumb to know he was never on MJ's level

Stockton's assists record will probably never be broken. or not in the next 50 years at least. (Magic Johnson would probably own the record if he didn't retire in his prime because of HIV)

hidalgo
04-01-2013, 10:41 PM
Whoever plays till they are 40i could see Durant doing it, because he shoots the ball so well he could be basically a spot up shooter like Ray Allen is now when he gets pasts his prime, & he'd still put up 15 ppg pretty easy

but for Lebron, once that prime is gone & he looses his athletic ability, he won't be able to depend on his jumper like Durant would. so Lebron would probably retire at an erlier age than KD

pinhead
04-01-2013, 11:18 PM
Jordan should have got 45,000 at least and made it unbreakable. It will be a sad day for Basketball if Kobe gets it.

hidalgo
04-01-2013, 11:20 PM
Jordan should have got 45,000 at least and made it unbreakable. It will be a sad day for Basketball if Kobe gets it.Jordan didn't care about it or he would have made sure he got it (& not retired twice during his career)

i agree he could have gotten 45k though

hidalgo
04-01-2013, 11:25 PM
i think people know PPG is far more impressve than total points

mngopher35
04-02-2013, 01:15 AM
They all have a chance, it depends which of them plays the longest most likely. Lebron currently averages the most point per game but in a few years I can see him being more of a distributor than scorer and his ppg going down a bit. Kobe might retire after next season and who knows what will happen with durant. If one of them decides to play until they are like 38 or so they have a good shot I guess.

nickdymez
04-02-2013, 01:28 PM
Jordan should have got 45,000 at least and made it unbreakable. It will be a sad day for Basketball if Kobe gets it.

Why would it be a sad day? Kobe is an all time great and one of the most pasionate basketball players ever.

OceanSpray
04-02-2013, 04:02 PM
It's easily going to be KD or LeBron.