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View Full Version : Bulls' Forum Mock-Trade Deadline: 4) Minnesota vs 5) Memphis



Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 12:38 AM
Hey everyone. The Bulls' Forum had a Mock-Trade Deadline game again this year, and we need as many votes possible to determine which teams will advance and ultimately which two teams will face each other in the Finals. So please vote for the team that you feel will win in a 7-game series and post why you think so. Assume complete-health for all players. Thanks!


4. Minnesota Timberwolves
PG: Kyrie Irving - Kirk Hinrich
SG: Lou Williams - Brandon Roy - Malcolm Lee
SF: Shawn Marion - Alonzo Gee - Dante Cunningham
PF: Ryan Anderson - Carl Landry - Lou Amundson
C: Anderson Varejao - Greg Stiemsma


Minnesota's Write-Up:
Congratulations to Memphis, and all other teams still in this game, on making the playoffs. The Grizzlies are probably the best grind it out team in the league. There's no denying they're at least in the argument. However, I feel that this may be the one exception where the slow "playoff pace" doesn't favor the Grizzlies. Especially when you factor in their putrid depth. Let's get into the individual matchups:

PG: Conley vs Irving
Conley's one of the most underrated players, and he's good at most everything. But, he's not Kyrie Irving, who is potentially the most dynamic offensive point guard in the league --- with great efficiency to boot. With this much improved roster, Irving will have the spacing and the ball-handlers to take advantage of Conley --- and still maintain that great efficiency (56ts%, 52efg%, 29usg%, 110 ORtg).
Winner: Kyrie Irving

SG: Lou Williams vs Tony Allen
With a great running mate in Irving, Tony Allen will be forced to guard Lou Williams the majority of the time. Lou compliments Irving extremely well in the backcourt - able to handle the ball on his own (54.0ts%, 52.5ts%, 55.5ts% the past three years on usage rates averaging 26%) but also able to play off the ball (last three years he's had a %ast rate of 42% 45% and 40%, and that's without having Irving setting him up). Allen is non-existent offensively, and although Lou Williams isn't a good defender, it won't matter in this matchup.
Winner: Lou Williams

SF: Shawn Marion vs Tayshaun Prince
What a matchup we have here. Marion's having a rejuvenated offensive year (54.3ts% 52.1efg% 18.6usg% 108 ORtg) whereas Prince is having his second worst year of his career offensively (49.2ts% 46.6efg% 17.4usg% 104 ORtg). Playing with the Grizzlies allows him to focus on playing within the offense, but he doesn't stretch the floor (only 1.3 attempts from three per game), and he's only making 60.2% of his shots at the rim (only 2.2 attempts a game). Prince is pretty much non-existent offensively, and with Marion able to guard him full time and not have to worry about a dynamic 2-guard, this matchup greatly favors Marion. Furthermore, Marion is 2nd in the league for starting small forwards for rebounding rate. He simply fits this new-look T'Wolves team perfectly --- allowing Ryno and Irving to stretch the floor with him cutting to the basket. Defensively, each player is a wash.
Winner: Shawn Marion

PF: Ryan Anderson vs Zach Randolph
One of the league's best three point shooters will force Randolph to guard the pick & roll, a lot. Ryno's the perfect compliment to the starting five, especially to Varejao and Irving. Defensively he won't be able to guard Randolph, but Randolph will have a tough time on his own guarding Ryno. Randolph's easily the better rebounder. As a whole, you're putting up one of the most efficient PFs in Anderson (56.9ts% 54.2efg% 23.8usg% 116 ORtg) versus one of the least efficient PFs in Randolph, at least this year, (51.0ts%, 47.0efg%, 22.8usg%, 107 ORtg). When it comes down to it, Ryan's offense and shooting will open up everything else for the team, and Randolph will be forced to dominate offensively --- which he hasn't done all that much this season.
Winner: Draw

C: Anderson Varejao vs Marc Gasol
Best matchup of the series. Arguably the best rebounder in the entire league in Varejao (rebound rates of 20.8% and 23.4% the last two years) versus one of the worst rebounding centers in the league (Gasol consistently hovers around 14%, and for a 7'1" player that's not acceptable). Varejao will have his way on Gasol, and will also force Gasol into taking tougher shots offensively. While Gasol easily wins as the more dynamic offensive player (especially in passing), Varejao will give his more efficient teammates more opportunities with his awesome offensive rebounding capabilities, and simply provide that intensity he always has.
Winner: Draw

Bench: Hinrich/Roy/Gee/Landry/Stiemsma vs Bayless/Frye/Arthur/?/?
I have Alonzo Gee who has started every year for his team in the NBA coming off my bench, a player who is extremely athletic and works great on the break. He's inefficient as a whole, but coming off the bench will limit this aspect about him. He's a solid rebounder and will simply need to spell Marion for 15 minutes a game.

Hinrich is still a great defender, and he's able to play off the ball with Irving and run the 2nd unit giving him a breather. He's started 44 games this year, and he's coming off my bench. He's shooting 39.8% from three taking just under 3 a game, and that's all he'll be asked to do besides setting up the second unit offensively and giving Conley a hard time.
Landry is extremely efficient 60.2ts% 53.0efg% 20.0usg% 116 ORtg. He can easily pick it up offensively and hold his own on the boards versus Channing Frye. He's a solid mid-range shooter as well, opening up the lane a little more for Stiemsma.

Stiemsma will be able to come in and play solid defense and rebound the ball for 10 minutes, that's all he'll need. Finally, Brandon Roy... a great player in his prime. Nowadays, he'll simply need to be an offensive threat and allow the offense to come to him (via Hinrich). If he can manage 7ppg off the bench in 18 minutes, then the bench will be set. To conclude, the Grizzlies have zero depth. They're relying on Channing Frye, Jerryd Bayless, and Darrell Arthur picking up the load for a very poor offensive team in the grand scheme of things.
Winner: T'Wolves


*** The Grizzlies have a solid team, but we just matchup perfectly against them with our ability to get on the fast-break and convert buckets, and even in the half-court offense we are miles ahead of them efficiency wise. The Timberwolves win this in 6 games.


5. Memphis Grizzlies
PG:Mike Conley/Jerryd Bayless/Tony Wroten
SG: Tony Allen/Jerryd Bayless/Tony Wroten
SF: Tayshaun Prince/Channing Frye/Quincy Pondexter
PF: Zach Randolph/Channing Frye/Darrell Arthur
C: Marc Gasol/Darrell Arthur/Channing Frye


Memphis' Write-Up:
Congrats to the Timberwolves on making the playoffs and winning the division. He constructed a good team that matches up with me well, but feel this series would go 4-5 games. One of the reasons being I have the better players at sg, sf, pf, and C. Conley and Allen can combine to slow irving and if I can slow Irving with as good a defensive team as this is he Timberwolves will have trouble scoring as the other 4 starters are not capable of creating their own offense. Also, if he is starting Roy remeber that while everyone is healthy roy isn't really healthy anymore and when he was "healthy" this year he posted 5 points 4 assists on 32% shooting in 5 games in 24 minutes. However the biggest key is how to slow down Randolph and Gasol and while Anderson and Varajoe are not bad defenders they will struggle to contain the two of them which feeds right into the type of offense this team wants to run. Again Congrats to the Timberwolves and Good Luck.


*** Memphis has Home-Court Advantage.

Guppyfighter
03-14-2013, 02:58 AM
Kyrie's irving stats drop eight percent on average when facing a top eight defense(third highest in the league). He's playing the second best defense and he's the focal point. I expect major struggles from the Twolves. Memphis advances.

KnicksorBust
03-14-2013, 07:20 AM
Normally these matchups are pretty easy to decide... especially in the first round... but this one was close. The Grizz have the perfect defense to slow down Irving and can abuse Ryan Anderson in the post. That's enough to swing the series for me. I do wonder why the Grizzlies only have 10 players though...?

Memphis advances.

dhopisthename
03-14-2013, 11:06 AM
I only listed 10 the other two would never see the floor unless everyone else got injured.

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 11:23 AM
Kyrie's irving stats drop eight percent on average when facing a top eight defense(third highest in the league). He's playing the second best defense and he's the focal point. I expect major struggles from the Twolves. Memphis advances.

that's on a Cavs team without offensive options like Lou Williams and Ryan Anderson. That's why i mentioned in my write up that he has the teammates around him to make things easier for him while maintaining a high usage.

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 01:50 PM
keep the votes coming please!

Guppyfighter
03-14-2013, 05:35 PM
that's on a Cavs team without offensive options like Lou Williams and Ryan Anderson. That's why i mentioned in my write up that he has the teammates around him to make things easier for him while maintaining a high usage.

It's offset by the fact they are playing an elite defense. It's all the same players as the actual Grizzlies team so I expect a top two defense is where they are if not the best with the Pacers in this league making themselves worse.

KnicksorBust
03-14-2013, 05:47 PM
that's on a Cavs team without offensive options like Lou Williams and Ryan Anderson. That's why i mentioned in my write up that he has the teammates around him to make things easier for him while maintaining a high usage.

Is that supposed to impress someone? Lou Williams is a good 6th man but in a starting role as an undersized SG vs. an elite defender like Tony Allen he become very pedestian. I like Ryan Anderson but he's more of a #3 option and does not draw double teams.

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 06:07 PM
Lou Williams will provide 15ppg on solid efficiency, forcing Conley to guard Irving the entire time. Williams also has never had a point guard like Irving, and a stretch-4 like Ryno.

Irving - 22ppg
Williams - 15ppg
Ryno - 18ppg

all on good efficiency mind you, with the ability to stretch the floor further increasing (more or less maintaining Marion's and Varejao's efficiency numbers) others around them. That's 55 points from three players, with Marion/Varejao able to give 10 each without debate. That's 75 points from your starting lineup... you don't think Hinrich/Roy/Gee/Landry/Stiemsma can manage 20 points a game? I think that's easily within the realm of possibility.

Factor in my team's ability to grab offensive rebounds, and their three point shooting, and this series should be won by Minnesota.

Guppyfighter
03-14-2013, 06:38 PM
Lou Williams will provide 15ppg on solid efficiency, forcing Conley to guard Irving the entire time. Williams also has never had a point guard like Irving, and a stretch-4 like Ryno.

Irving - 22ppg
Williams - 15ppg
Ryno - 18ppg

all on good efficiency mind you, with the ability to stretch the floor further increasing (more or less maintaining Marion's and Varejao's efficiency numbers) others around them. That's 55 points from three players, with Marion/Varejao able to give 10 each without debate. That's 75 points from your starting lineup... you don't think Hinrich/Roy/Gee/Landry/Stiemsma can manage 20 points a game? I think that's easily within the realm of possibility.

Factor in my team's ability to grab offensive rebounds, and their three point shooting, and this series should be won by Minnesota.

PPG game as to judge how much they are going to score on Memphis? lol

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 07:14 PM
Did you not read my writeup? :laugh:

KnicksorBust
03-14-2013, 07:25 PM
Lou Williams will provide 15ppg on solid efficiency, forcing Conley to guard Irving the entire time. Williams also has never had a point guard like Irving, and a stretch-4 like Ryno.

Irving - 22ppg
Williams - 15ppg
Ryno - 18ppg

all on good efficiency mind you, with the ability to stretch the floor further increasing (more or less maintaining Marion's and Varejao's efficiency numbers) others around them. That's 55 points from three players, with Marion/Varejao able to give 10 each without debate. That's 75 points from your starting lineup... you don't think Hinrich/Roy/Gee/Landry/Stiemsma can manage 20 points a game? I think that's easily within the realm of possibility.

Factor in my team's ability to grab offensive rebounds, and their three point shooting, and this series should be won by Minnesota.

Lou Williams barely produces average effeciency as a 6th man and 4th option. His career playoff numbers are atrocious. He scores 11ppg on 37%fg / 23% 3pt / 75% ft for a pitiful TS% of 47%. Now you expect him to be a starter / 3rd option and score on one of the elite perimeter defenders of the NBA in Tony Allen? How can you possibly expect him to take pressure off of Kyrie Irving?

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 07:40 PM
Over the last four seasons he's posted the following

09/10 --- 57.6ts% 52.1efg% 21.1usg% 116 ORtg
10/11 --- 54.0ts% 46.2efg% 27.8usg% 111 ORtg
11/12 --- 52.5ts% 46.0efg% 27.4usg% 110 ORtg
12/13 --- 55.5ts% 50.3efg% 23.7usg% 106 ORtg

How is that barely average exactly? With that high of a usage percentage it's plenty good enough. And like i've continued to state, he's NEVER had an offensive player to relieve pressure off of him as well. The best offensive player outside of Lou was Andre Iguodala, who isn't anywhere near Kyrie Irving and is also not as good as Ryan Anderson offensively.


And yeah, Memphis' team defense and individual defense is the best in the league (arguably). But their offense is at best average... currently they are ranked 18th in the league. And if we're complaining about someone's efficiency like you are with Lou Williams, who is going to score for the Grizzlies? As a poor shooting team, an average rebounding team, and an overall poor team in getting to the line, where will their easy baskets come from?

Zach Randolph's career numbers in the playoffs are 53.4ts% 45.6efg% 23.7usg% 112 ORtg. So while you make the efficiency argument against my team, try making one for the other team because they're far worse off than my team is offensively.

Guppyfighter
03-14-2013, 07:42 PM
Kyrie Irvings average drops by 8-10 percent when facing a top eight defense. He is against the best defense in the league. Lou Williams and Ryan Anderson are not going to stop that kind of drop off. Twolves will struggle to score while the Grizzlies abuse a bad defensive team.

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 08:07 PM
How exactly is Minnesota a bad defensive team? Varejao/Marion/Irving are all damn good defenders, with good defenders off the bench as well? If they were playing against say the Nuggets or Warriors yeah they'd get abused, but against the offensively deficient Timberwolves their defense won't be an issue.

KnicksorBust
03-14-2013, 08:23 PM
Over the last four seasons he's posted the following

09/10 --- 57.6ts% 52.1efg% 21.1usg% 116 ORtg
10/11 --- 54.0ts% 46.2efg% 27.8usg% 111 ORtg
11/12 --- 52.5ts% 46.0efg% 27.4usg% 110 ORtg
12/13 --- 55.5ts% 50.3efg% 23.7usg% 106 ORtg

How is that barely average exactly? With that high of a usage percentage it's plenty good enough. And like i've continued to state, he's NEVER had an offensive player to relieve pressure off of him as well. The best offensive player outside of Lou was Andre Iguodala, who isn't anywhere near Kyrie Irving and is also not as good as Ryan Anderson offensively.


And yeah, Memphis' team defense and individual defense is the best in the league (arguably). But their offense is at best average... currently they are ranked 18th in the league. And if we're complaining about someone's efficiency like you are with Lou Williams, who is going to score for the Grizzlies? As a poor shooting team, an average rebounding team, and an overall poor team in getting to the line, where will their easy baskets come from?

Zach Randolph's career numbers in the playoffs are 53.4ts% 45.6efg% 23.7usg% 112 ORtg. So while you make the efficiency argument against my team, try making one for the other team because they're far worse off than my team is offensively.

His TS% over those 4 seasons is about 1% over the league average. Barely average couldn't be more accurate. :) Factor in that he produces that off the bench. Factor in that in this series he's going against an elite defender in Tony Allen. It's a recipe for off games and struggling offense.

Gasol is an effecient scorer and Conley is a wash with your boy Lou Will. You really want to come after Randolph? He's proven he can be effecient as a #1 scorer and beat the Spurs in the playoffs. Now you are throwing a bum defender Ryan Anderson at him and expect to get away with it? Combine that with terrible backcourt defense and I'm even more convinced you lose.

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 09:16 PM
It's more accurate to compare those numbers to his position's average, not the league, where he's then above average without question --- especially when you factor in his crazy high usage rate.

Varejao can also guard Randolph you know... besides, two series of Randolph being very efficient all of a sudden takes away the fact that he's average efficiency wise? It's easily reversible as well --- you're having Randolph guard Ryan Anderson, taking him outside of the paint which opens up lanes and reduces Randolph's best aspect --- his rebounding.

And Terrible backcourt defense? What a crock. Irving's a damn good defender, and so is Kirk Hinrich. Williams not being a good defender is washed out by Tony Allen being non-existent offensively.

Again... where the hell is Memphis going to get their scoring efficiently? Because they won't get transition baskets, won't get second chance opportunities, and won't get high-efficient shots otherwise (three pointers and free throw attempts).

I get it... Memphis is well-liked. But they're majorly flawed and their weaknesses can be exploited by this T'Wolves team.

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 09:19 PM
And yeah Gasol's an efficient scorer... but isn't utilized often enough for it to be that big of an impact. Prince is awful offensively and so is Tony Allen.

Two awful offensive players in the starting lineup + a not so efficient first option in Randolph + an underutilized center does not equal good offense, ever. Conley's the perfect #3 option for that team, only problem is they have no true 1st option (Randolph is not a 1st option anymore) and no second option.

Guppyfighter
03-14-2013, 09:19 PM
It's more accurate to compare those numbers to his position's average, not the league, where he's then above average without question --- especially when you factor in his crazy high usage rate.

Varejao can also guard Randolph you know... besides, two series of Randolph being very efficient all of a sudden takes away the fact that he's average efficiency wise? It's easily reversible as well --- you're having Randolph guard Ryan Anderson, taking him outside of the paint which opens up lanes and reduces Randolph's best aspect --- his rebounding.

And Terrible backcourt defense? What a crock. Irving's a damn good defender, and so is Kirk Hinrich. Williams not being a good defender is washed out by Tony Allen being non-existent offensively.

Again... where the hell is Memphis going to get their scoring efficiently? Because they won't get transition baskets, won't get second chance opportunities, and won't get high-efficient shots otherwise (three pointers and free throw attempts).

I get it... Memphis is well-liked. But they're majorly flawed and their weaknesses can be exploited by this T'Wolves team.

Irving is a god awful defender.

Shammyguy3
03-14-2013, 09:38 PM
Last call for votes on this matchup guys! If you have yet to vote please do so asap!