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View Full Version : My equation on who is performing the best in the NBA ths year



IKnowHoops
02-14-2013, 08:41 PM
OK so not many will care, but to those who agree or disagree, I hope that you are able to understand this cause its pretty cut and dry.

So I made an equation that I think represents who is doing the most in the league. I give a point value for each stat based on the top 20 for each stat. I give a point for scoring, and then find the relativity between pts vs all the other stats to determine the worth of each stat.

Takes into account.
Points and shooting percentage-- (Points-shots)

Asst value-- (avg points of top 20/average asst of to 20) which is (21.76/7.57) which is 2.87

REB value-- (avg points of top 20/average reb of top 20) which is (21.76/10.66) which is 2.04

Blk value-- (avg points of top 20/average blks of top 20) which is (21.76/1.99) which is 10.93

Stl value-- (avg points of top 20/average stls of top 20) which is (21.76/1.84) which is 11.83

TO value-- (avg points of top 20/average TO of top 20) which is (21.76/3.2) which is 6.73

So the equation looks like this:

(Points-shot attempts) + (assts x 2.87) + (reb x 2.04) + (blks x 10.93) + (stl x 11.83) - (TO x 6.73)

Lebron- (27.1 - 18.3) + (6.9 x 2.87) + (8.1 x 2.04) + (.88 x 10.93) + ( 1.65 x 11.83) - (2.9 x 6.73)
Durant- (29.0 - 18.0) + (4.4 x 2.87) + (7.4 x 2.04) + (1.19 x 10.93) + (1.6 x 11.83) - (3.2 x 6.73)

Lebron 54.7
Durant 48.9

So as you can see my equation shows Lebron doing more. Would love to hear from those who understand this equation why it is does or doesnt adequately show who is doing more on the court.

JNoel
02-14-2013, 08:48 PM
You work for ESPN or something?

LongIslandIcedZ
02-14-2013, 08:51 PM
I guess its nice to be statistically validated, but the answer has very been Lebron very clearly, especially recently.

IKnowHoops
02-14-2013, 09:05 PM
You work for ESPN or something?

No, I just like statistics

bholly
02-14-2013, 09:17 PM
Rarity and value aren't nearly the same thing. A steal isn't 5 times more valuable than a rebound just because it's rarer.

Minimal
02-14-2013, 09:21 PM
I praise for taking some time for calculating all this things, but I have some problems with your "stats". In particular is that LeBrons scoring gives him only 8.8 points while his steals give him 19.5 points, same goes for the assists (around 20) and rebounds (around 16.5). Now how important are steals compared to scoring? Also you need to include minutes per game and maybe some defesive stats. You need to make adjustments in your stat system.

ElChinoLatino
02-14-2013, 09:29 PM
Very well done, I appreciate how some stats (steals) are worth more since not only does it count as a forced turnover (or a defensive play resulting in a missed shot + defensive rebound) but also as a potential fast break opportunity which is even harder to measure. Forced TOs like offensive fouls and traveling/palming are a lot harder to measure but surely would be the next step in implementing them in defensive stats.

Sactown
02-14-2013, 09:37 PM
These stats are a volume scorers worst nightmare lol, Why you might add?

High # of shot attempts, high usage results in high amount of turnovers, and if they aren't playing the passing lanes they don't make up for it with steals and blocked shots.

Raps18-19 Champ
02-14-2013, 10:19 PM
Equations are worthless unless you have significant data on why your equation is the way it is.

IKnowHoops
02-14-2013, 10:43 PM
Rarity and value aren't nearly the same thing. A steal isn't 5 times more valuable than a rebound just because it's rarer.

True, but at least rarity is consistent and provable where as value is an estimation. Unless you can tell me if a point is worth a point. What is an asst worth? What is a rebound worth. I still think this equation will show who is doing more regardless because its based on real relative statistics. Ill plug in some more people and see if I get anything that seems odd. Thanks for the feedback and I do agree with you on a level.

OceanSpray
02-14-2013, 10:46 PM
A steal is indeed 5x more valuable than a rebound imo. Leading steals leader is like 3? Leading rebounder is 14? A steal is much tougher to grab than a rebound. Great equation with a lot of thought into it. Not perfect though.

b@llhog24
02-14-2013, 10:54 PM
It's doesn't even account for pace, Wilt would be the GOAT based on this forumla.

OceanSpray
02-14-2013, 10:56 PM
It's doesn't even account for pace, Wilt would be the GOAT based on this forumla.

Very true but I think this is best for their respective eras. Wilt would be GOAT in every stat if we base it off this.

lakers4sho
02-14-2013, 11:50 PM
OK so not many will care, but to those who agree or disagree, I hope that you are able to understand this cause its pretty cut and dry.

So I made an equation that I think represents who is doing the most in the league. I give a point value for each stat based on the top 20 for each stat. I give a point for scoring, and then find the relativity between pts vs all the other stats to determine the worth of each stat.

Takes into account.
Points and shooting percentage-- (Points-shots)

Asst value-- (avg points of top 20/average asst of to 20) which is (21.76/7.57) which is 2.87

REB value-- (avg points of top 20/average reb of top 20) which is (21.76/10.66) which is 2.04

Blk value-- (avg points of top 20/average blks of top 20) which is (21.76/1.99) which is 10.93

Stl value-- (avg points of top 20/average stls of top 20) which is (21.76/1.84) which is 11.83

TO value-- (avg points of top 20/average TO of top 20) which is (21.76/3.2) which is 6.73

So the equation looks like this:

(Points-shot attempts) + (assts x 2.87) + (reb x 2.04) + (blks x 10.93) + (stl x 11.83) - (TO x 6.73)

Lebron- (27.1 - 18.3) + (6.9 x 2.87) + (8.1 x 2.04) + (.88 x 10.93) + ( 1.65 x 11.83) - (2.9 x 6.73)
Durant- (29.0 - 18.0) + (4.4 x 2.87) + (7.4 x 2.04) + (1.19 x 10.93) + (1.6 x 11.83) - (3.2 x 6.73)

Lebron 54.7
Durant 48.9

So as you can see my equation shows Lebron doing more. Would love to hear from those who understand this equation why it is does or doesnt adequately show who is doing more on the court.

At least you tried.

IKnowHoops
02-15-2013, 01:25 AM
It's doesn't even account for pace, Wilt would be the GOAT based on this forumla.

Thanks, thats what I was going for. If you can average 50pts and 25reb in a season, I hope that my formula puts you in the #1 spot

Money_23
02-15-2013, 04:13 AM
even without all that math I can tell you it is Lebron, and it is NOT even close at all.

Chronz
02-15-2013, 02:32 PM
A steal is indeed 5x more valuable than a rebound imo. Leading steals leader is like 3? Leading rebounder is 14? A steal is much tougher to grab than a rebound. Great equation with a lot of thought into it. Not perfect though.
Isn't there a name for this type of analysis? Isnt it shunned by the APBR community at large? I remember Dean Oliver mentioning it in his book but this really isn't a good all-purpose stat.

OceanSpray
02-15-2013, 04:28 PM
Isn't there a name for this type of analysis? Isnt it shunned by the APBR community at large? I remember Dean Oliver mentioning it in his book but this really isn't a good all-purpose stat.

I never said it was accurate. I just think rebounding is much easier to accumulate than a steal.

Chronz
02-15-2013, 04:33 PM
Isn't there a name for this type of analysis? Isnt it shunned by the APBR community at large? I remember Dean Oliver mentioning it in his book but this really isn't a good all-purpose stat.

I never said it was accurate. I just think rebounding is much easier to accumulate than a steal.
no doubt there could be some value in this just saying this is one area where rarity doesn't equal value.