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View Full Version : Contenders Or Pretenders?



jn6474
01-18-2013, 07:52 AM
So, with probably no more big moves left in the sox offseason, barring any trades. Which could happen, but as it stands at the moment are the sox contenders or pretenders?
Heres the projected roster:
Lester Buchholz Dempster Lackey Doubront
Hanrahan Bailey Uehara Tazawa Bard Breslow Miller Mortenson Aceves Morales (may start)
Saltalamacchia
Napoli
Pedroia
Drew
Middlebrooks
Gomes
Ellsbury
Victorino
Ortiz
Bench may include up to 4-5 of these: D.Ross Gomez Ciriaco Holt Kalish Nava Lavarnway(likely AAA)

bagwell368
01-18-2013, 10:50 AM
Nicely calibrated to look like it can contend for real, but that's about a 12% shot. More likely we are sellers at the deadline. The worse thing is we are close enough and do nothing at the deadline.

CeltBruinSoxFan
01-18-2013, 12:33 PM
I think the injury bug is going to hit the Sox, so I will say pretenders. I think both Napoli and Papi hit the DL this year and a decent sized stint (3-5 weeks). We won't have the power to contend.

But if the team can stay some what healthy . . . we have a chance to surprise for the last wild card spot possibly.

Nomar
01-18-2013, 01:08 PM
air benders

Bo Sox Fan
01-18-2013, 01:15 PM
You can pretty much book DL stints right now for Ortiz, Napoli, Buchholz and Bailey at some (multiple) points in the season. So saying that, we are pretenders with a shot to play spoiler in September if we don't completely tank again.

GrkGawdofWalkz
01-18-2013, 02:17 PM
Pretender. The team was put together so that they at least keep their season ticket holders satisfied. Long term value is limited in guys like Lackey, Dempster and other veterans. By 2014, a lot of these guys could have been moved by the deadline.

RedSoxtober
01-18-2013, 03:59 PM
I'll suggest contenders but not for the obvious reasons. I believe that the AL East is so strong that the teams are ultimately going to beat the crap out of each other all season. The Sox will have what amounts to a "bend don't break" team that is able to just keep pace with the teams driving one another towards .500. They'll have enough offense to pick up games against the weaker Central/West teams and probably have a supra-500 split in interleague games. Taken together that's enough to be a "contender" in the sense of being in the hunt for a WC spot. I'm assuming that the Yankees take a hit on age, BAL's BP-centric approach doesn't replicate success. At least the opportunities are there.

Nomar
01-18-2013, 04:35 PM
Baltimore had a 8 win bullpen which is probably unrepeatable. Yankees are getting old. Tampa to me looks like a great team built around young players. Toronto has a great team, but injury concerns are a big question for them and my gut won't let me trust Dickey in our division. I don't want to say we have no chance because that's not true, but I'm somewhere between contenders and pretenders.

Celtic AL
01-18-2013, 06:10 PM
I think they could contend for the final wild card spot if most the of pieces fall in to place

ruckus16969
01-18-2013, 07:35 PM
Hard to tell. The SP has to live up to its potential if that dont happen then this team is gonna suck. This offense is one power bat away from being super balanced. Ya never know maybe they will pull together and suprise us all. Probably not tho

Nighthawk
01-18-2013, 07:45 PM
Nicely calibrated to look like it can contend for real, but that's about a 12% shot. More likely we are sellers at the deadline. The worse thing is we are close enough and do nothing at the deadline.

Would you agree that the talent we had last year underachieved?

AND

Do you believe they can bounce back? Guys like Lester, Clay, Ells, Pedey, and even a returning Lackey. (Assuming they stay healthy of course)

Do you believe in the new guys? Nap, Victorino, Hanrahan, Drew, Ross, Uehara, Dempster Gomes etc


You see no shot at the 2nd wild card?

I personally think with a new coach, a coach these players will actually run through a wall for, we will see a difference in attitude. Im not silly enough to think their contenders for the W.S. But is Baltimore here to stay? Will the Yankees remain on top or do we see decline?(they looked bad in the ALCS) Will Toronto put it together on the field or be a paper team? Will Tampa continue to stay atop the AL East with that lineup? We know they have the pitching. I think this season is an interesting one

Station 13
01-18-2013, 08:18 PM
Contenders

BradytoGronkTD
01-19-2013, 12:06 AM
Well, probably 90% of people outside of baltimore didnt give them any chance to contend, so you never know. Some players could play out of their minds this year.

postman47
01-19-2013, 08:32 AM
Last season, the Redsox suffered from many issues which contributed to the very poor season. The Mgr was one issue that has been fixed. Our top starter (Lester) had his a horrible season, but I think he will have a much better year this year. The closers were horrible, but that too should improve. The key will be injuries. Way too many last year, and while this year there will be injuries, it all comes down to the amount. If they can be somewhat limited, the Redsox can contend for a Wild Card spot, then anything can happen in the playoffs.

todu82
01-20-2013, 11:14 AM
I can see us being contenders. We're definitely better than last year.

BradytoGronkTD
01-20-2013, 03:05 PM
Last season, the Redsox suffered from many issues which contributed to the very poor season. The Mgr was one issue that has been fixed. Our top starter (Lester) had his a horrible season, but I think he will have a much better year this year. The closers were horrible, but that too should improve. The key will be injuries. Way too many last year, and while this year there will be injuries, it all comes down to the amount. If they can be somewhat limited, the Redsox can contend for a Wild Card spot, then anything can happen in the playoffs.

x2

you never know what could happen once in the playoffs.

RedSoxtober
01-21-2013, 10:09 AM
Would you agree that the talent we had last year underachieved?

AND

Do you believe they can bounce back? Guys like Lester, Clay, Ells, Pedey, and even a returning Lackey. (Assuming they stay healthy of course)

Do you believe in the new guys? Nap, Victorino, Hanrahan, Drew, Ross, Uehara, Dempster Gomes etc


You see no shot at the 2nd wild card?

I personally think with a new coach, a coach these players will actually run through a wall for, we will see a difference in attitude. Im not silly enough to think their contenders for the W.S. But is Baltimore here to stay? Will the Yankees remain on top or do we see decline?(they looked bad in the ALCS) Will Toronto put it together on the field or be a paper team? Will Tampa continue to stay atop the AL East with that lineup? We know they have the pitching. I think this season is an interesting one

Most people can probably track with the idea that, despite their strengths, each AL East team has an obvious Achilles heel that could take them down or at least slow them down. The chances of finishing in the top two or three teams is just as good as finishing at the bottom. But consider the bigger picture and what that really means.

Unless you think that the teams with the biggest weaknesses (BAL and their approach; NYY and age) will completely collapse then a second EC is a stretch. I think that there's a faint hope but that's it. As I tried to lay out, the strength of the division plays AGAINST the Sox. In years past the WC has come from divisions in which there were clear weak teams against whom they collected +20 wins via the unbalanced schedule. The Sox, for example, routinely went 15-3 against BAL and 12-6 against TOR. If the division is as tough as predicted most of the teams will hover between 11-7 to 9-9. The best team may finish with a lower net-win count than past teams accumulated against one or two teams. Not net gain in wins within the division makes it VERY difficult to contend as a WC because there are so many fewer games against non-division teams.

The West can pile on against SEA and whichever team comes out of the game slowly. The Central will pick up wins in CLE and MIN. Those are the places where the WCs probably come from.

LA Sox Fan
01-21-2013, 12:24 PM
The Sox ability to be a contender in 2013 comes down to two factors IMO.

1) Can the team stay healthy? & 2) Will Farrell have a stabilizing effect on the starting rotation?

If those two things happen then I think they can surprise a lot of people. If not then it could get ugly.

Regardless of how this season plays out, I really like the philosophy of holding onto (and developing) our young talent and bringing in high-character, good clubhouse guys. We may not reap the benefits of it in 2013 but I think that if they stay the course, beginning in a couple years this team could start another epic run like it had from 2003-2008.

Nomar
01-21-2013, 01:35 PM
I think a very important factor will be if Salty catches and if so, for how long before he is dealt? If he's catching until the trade deadline I'm going to say that we aren't going to be contenders because our pitching will probably be having yet another bad season. Salty isn't the only reason our pitching has been bad in recent memory, but he is a big factor for sure. I'm done with watching him call games and strike out a third of the time.

mooz
01-23-2013, 10:21 AM
I think a very important factor will be if Salty catches and if so, for how long before he is dealt? If he's catching until the trade deadline I'm going to say that we aren't going to be contenders because our pitching will probably be having yet another bad season. Salty isn't the only reason our pitching has been bad in recent memory, but he is a big factor for sure. I'm done with watching him call games and strike out a third of the time.

My thoughts exactly. 100% agree.

wolf82
01-23-2013, 11:21 AM
The Sox ability to be a contender in 2013 comes down to two factors IMO.

1) Can the team stay healthy? & 2) Will Farrell have a stabilizing effect on the starting rotation?

If those two things happen then I think they can surprise a lot of people. If not then it could get ugly.

Regardless of how this season plays out, I really like the philosophy of holding onto (and developing) our young talent and bringing in high-character, good clubhouse guys. We may not reap the benefits of it in 2013 but I think that if they stay the course, beginning in a couple years this team could start another epic run like it had from 2003-2008.

It can go 50/50 especially if they can stay healthy. Will I be happy either way? YES

I would like to see them win, but will be happy if they make good moves for the deadline.

If Napoli stays healthy, and keeps showing power he can possibly bring in a good hall for a play off team looking for power for the play-offs. Same with Ells, and Lackey.

Bird Fan
01-23-2013, 01:28 PM
Pretenders- outside shot at playoffs but not likely. A lot of things would have to go right, health being the main one.

Also, this team lacks power, I don't see us scarying anyone. Not that you need to, but AL East you gotta have bats/ runs, I don't see Soxs having that.

Nomar
01-23-2013, 02:00 PM
Pretenders- outside shot at playoffs but not likely. A lot of things would have to go right, health being the main one.

Also, this team lacks power, I don't see us scarying anyone. Not that you need to, but AL East you gotta have bats/ runs, I don't see Soxs having that.

We're definitely still going to be top 5 in the AL if not the MLB in runs considering our division and that we were top 3 last year before the trade that AGon away. Napoli will likely match Gonzalez's 2012 offensive production at least and we'll have a healthy Ellsbury, and Victorino or Gomes (depending how you look for it) instead of Sweeney or Nava.

Bo Sox Fan
01-23-2013, 02:31 PM
^^ No, I very highly doubt Napoli even comes close to matching Gonzalez' production with the stick or glove. Just not happening. He 'might' hit 2 or 3 more homer's, that's about it.

bagwell368
01-23-2013, 02:31 PM
We're definitely still going to be top 5 in the AL if not the MLB in runs considering our division and that we were top 3 last year before the trade that AGon away. Napoli will likely match Gonzalez's 2012 offensive production at least and we'll have a healthy Ellsbury, and Victorino or Gomes (depending how you look for it) instead of Sweeney or Nava.

I don't see it.

1B: broken down Napoli/replacement < Agon/Loney
2B: Pedroia - wash
3B: WMB with no real back-up 2nd time through the league - good chance for meh
SS: Drew vs Aviles - wash or worse
LF: platoon vs Crawford/Nava - probably better
CF: Ells/injury standin vs Ells/Byrd - better
RF: Victorino vs Ross/Sweeney - close
C: if Salty is gone, better D, but very possible worse O.
DH: Ortiz v Ortiz - I bet worse

This teams opening day top six hitters is worse vs last year on paper IMO, mix in injuries to to injury prone and key players such as Ortiz, Pedroia, and Napoli - and it's a poor line-up. We have no depth in the entire INF, DH and CF, and have platoon guys that will be exposed if there is injury to their platoon mate.

Overall Meh - 690-740 run team.

Nomar
01-23-2013, 02:53 PM
I don't see it.

1B: broken down Napoli/replacement < Agon/Loney
2B: Pedroia - wash
3B: WMB with no real back-up 2nd time through the league - good chance for meh
SS: Drew vs Aviles - wash or worse
LF: platoon vs Crawford/Nava - probably better
CF: Ells/injury standin vs Ells/Byrd - better
RF: Victorino vs Ross/Sweeney - close
C: if Salty is gone, better D, but very possible worse O.
DH: Ortiz v Ortiz - I bet worse

This teams opening day top six hitters is worse vs last year on paper IMO, mix in injuries to to injury prone and key players such as Ortiz, Pedroia, and Napoli - and it's a poor line-up. We have no depth in the entire INF, DH and CF, and have platoon guys that will be exposed if there is injury to their platoon mate.

Overall Meh - 690-740 run team.

Napoli isn't broken down until he's broken down. He has a chronic condition, were not even sure that he will be hurt too often this year. We'll see who's backup.

Lavarnway, Kalish, Drew are pretty big mysteries at this point too. I think it will be tough for drew to be worse offensively than Aviles/Iglesias though.

Good point with Ortiz, I sort of neglected that. Still, top 5 in the AL seems realistic to me depending on how many injuries hit us.

bagwell368
01-24-2013, 02:48 PM
Napoli isn't broken down until he's broken down. He has a chronic condition, were not even sure that he will be hurt too often this year. We'll see who's backup.

Lavarnway, Kalish, Drew are pretty big mysteries at this point too. I think it will be tough for drew to be worse offensively than Aviles/Iglesias though.

Good point with Ortiz, I sort of neglected that. Still, top 5 in the AL seems realistic to me depending on how many injuries hit us.

How many hitters on this team are:

1. coming off injury riddled seasons
2. poor seasons based on recent history

A very large amount is the answer.

Napoli has 7 years as a pro, with 2 great seasons, 1 good, and 4 meh/poor. Which one are we going to get?

Aviles is about even to Drew as on offensive player the last two years. Iglesias is liable to be the same inept offensive "force" that he was last year. Drew in his last 2 years had an OPS+ of 93, 79. Drew has played 86 and 79 games those two years due to injury. Aviles had an OPS+ of 89 and 76. But he managed 91 and 136 games played.

Seriously given the average luck, health, and decline issues. I'd say 5th in runs would be a fine outcome.

BGeer091
01-30-2013, 12:27 PM
I feel like we are a contender for the final playoff spot. However I fear that as well. I could see us in the hunt for the playoffs around deadline time and making a bad move. For me that would be the worst case scenario. Unless your getting a King Felix, Price, Kershaw(i say no chance) or a Braun, Tulo(again no chance) Using our specs in a small deal is a bad idea. I think you set a plan and stick to it. If we are still contending around that time great, however i would like to still have our almost ready specs get playing time. Not to mention some veteran players that have value, are potentially blocking specs, need to be moved instead of held on too.

RedSoxtober
01-30-2013, 02:00 PM
^^^ I honestly think the current FO will be more conservative on deals around the deadline, at least for the next year or two. By conservative I mean that they will way long-term impact more heavily than short-term. Whatever success may come, BC seems firmly committed to the idea that they are building a new nucleus that must be preserved.

bagwell368
01-30-2013, 02:53 PM
^^^ I honestly think the current FO will be more conservative on deals around the deadline, at least for the next year or two. By conservative I mean that they will way long-term impact more heavily than short-term. Whatever success may come, BC seems firmly committed to the idea that they are building a new nucleus that must be preserved.

Hopefully. Now if we can be judicious sellers of players and careful buyers in the FA market over the next two years, it should aid (perhaps greatly) in creating a team that can be a legitimate playoff threat in 2015, and beyond.

Folks here that want to pursue a playoff spot this year and next year at all costs are not holding sway - thankfully - or in the FO.

Bird Fan
02-01-2013, 11:29 AM
How many hitters on this team are:

1. coming off injury riddled seasons
2. poor seasons based on recent history

A very large amount is the answer.

Napoli has 7 years as a pro, with 2 great seasons, 1 good, and 4 meh/poor. Which one are we going to get?

Aviles is about even to Drew as on offensive player the last two years. Iglesias is liable to be the same inept offensive "force" that he was last year. Drew in his last 2 years had an OPS+ of 93, 79. Drew has played 86 and 79 games those two years due to injury. Aviles had an OPS+ of 89 and 76. But he managed 91 and 136 games played.

Seriously given the average luck, health, and decline issues. I'd say 5th in runs would be a fine outcome.

All good points^