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AndyfromNeptune
12-23-2012, 10:06 AM
For purely a hypothetical debate, if we do not include team record or player's role to the team's success as a merit for consideration in the MVP voting process, (obviously in real life it's integral, hence, Derrick Rose 2 years ago) who is this year's NBA MVP up to this point? I care more about the statistical argument than anything else.

Kobe Bryant is averaging 29.7 ppg on .471 shooting, .374 three point shooting, .861 free throw shooting, 5.4 RPG, 5 assists, 1.6 spg, and a PER of 25.26.

Carmelo Anthony is averaging 28 ppg on .472 shooting, .448 three point shooting, .82 free throw shooting, 6.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, and a per of 26.37

Lebron James is averaging 25.4 ppg on .542 shooting, .442 three point shooting, .683 free throw shooting, 8.5 RPG, 6.8 apg, and 1.3 spg and a PER of 29.16.

Kevin Durant is averaging 27.9 ppg on .521 shooting, .427 three point shooting, .904 free throw shooting, 8.4 RPG, and 4.2 APG, 1.3 BPG, and 1.5 SPG, with a PER of 28.38.

So who's the statistical NBA MVP?

AndyfromNeptune
12-23-2012, 10:08 AM
Kobe Bryant's statistics in particular are pretty incredible.

Carmelo's and Durants are pretty comparable as well.

Obviously, Lebron's statistics year in and year out make him a viable candidate for the MVP.

I'm curious to what arguments people have to give.

Mr Haha
12-23-2012, 10:31 AM
Statistical MVP = Real MVP? Is that what you're saying?

Becks2307
12-23-2012, 10:56 AM
Its Durant in BOTH cases...do you see those numbers? good god.

waveycrockett
12-23-2012, 10:58 AM
LeBron PER of 29.16 and defensively light years ahead of all 3 other guys

AndyfromNeptune
12-23-2012, 11:28 AM
Kobe Bryant's statistics are pretty comparable to Durant's.

mightybosstone
12-23-2012, 11:54 AM
It's between Lebron and Durant, IMO, and the other two are just a step below. Lebron and Durant just contribute in more ways than Kobe and Melo do. I'd say at this point Durant has a slight edge because of his WS/48. But if Lebron really wants to kick it into gear at any point and score more often, he can certainly do that.

I think the best way to describe my view on the MVP this season is that Durant has been the MVP, but Lebron James is still the best player in the NBA.

waveycrockett
12-23-2012, 11:56 AM
Over his last 5 games kobe is shooting 41% FG and 31% from 3P. He got off to a great start but no chance in hell he keeps pace with LeBron and Durant. Not to mention he has no shot anyway based on team record and defense.

D-Leethal
12-23-2012, 12:09 PM
Lebron or Durant. The abysmal FT shooting of LeBron with the elite FT shooting of Durant might outweight the slight increases LeBron has in a few of the other cat's.


Pretty sure Durant is #1 overall fantasy player, that could give you indication of 'statistical' MVP.

waveycrockett
12-23-2012, 12:27 PM
Lebron or Durant. The abysmal FT shooting of LeBron with the elite FT shooting of Durant might outweight the slight increases LeBron has in a few of the other cat's.


Pretty sure Durant is #1 overall fantasy player, that could give you indication of 'statistical' MVP.

statistics don't take into account defense where there is a HUGEEEE GAP between the 2. The voters do though.

Im_in_Mia_bish
12-23-2012, 12:45 PM
please post the tunovers :)

cleptopot
12-23-2012, 12:53 PM
It is LeBron no contest. Please get of Kobe's jock. He shouldnt even be in the discussion or even be included :facepalm:

AnthonyTyrael
12-23-2012, 01:44 PM
I'm not up to date and an old fashioned guy so forgive me please...is the IBM award still around? I don't think so and it clearly favored the big men though but without any outstanding bigs around these days...who knows.

b@llhog24
12-23-2012, 06:02 PM
So far Durant has the better stats.

bucketss
12-23-2012, 06:04 PM
LeBron PER of 29.16 and defensively light years ahead of all 3 other guys

durants been playing better defense so far this year.

b@llhog24
12-23-2012, 06:08 PM
Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
1 Carmelo Anthony 2012-13 28 22 785 26.3 .590 .535 5.5 14.8 9.9 10.3 1.5 1.4 9.5 34.2 114 107 2.8 0.6 3.4 .209
2 Kobe Bryant 2012-13 34 27 1042 25.2 .589 .521 2.5 12.8 7.7 26.4 2.1 0.4 13.0 33.0 116 106 3.9 0.9 4.8 .220
3 Tim Duncan 2012-13 36 27 828 25.2 .552 .501 7.4 29.9 19.3 14.4 1.5 5.9 9.1 25.8 112 94 1.9 1.9 3.8 .223
4 Kevin Durant 2012-13 24 26 1028 28.3 .654 .567 2.1 21.1 12.5 19.7 2.0 2.6 14.0 28.8 123 101 4.5 1.6 6.2 .287
5 LeBron James 2012-13 28 24 900 29.1 .606 .581 4.5 22.1 13.8 33.5 1.7 1.8 11.3 29.7 120 103 3.9 1.2 5.0 .267
6 Chris Paul 2012-13 27 26 858 26.0 .590 .521 2.4 10.4 6.5 45.2 4.2 0.1 13.9 21.8 126 99 3.7 1.5 5.2 .292

Again KD.

albertajaysfan
12-23-2012, 06:18 PM
I have to go with KD if we are basing it off stats.

That FT for Lebron is disgusting.

tredigs
12-23-2012, 06:27 PM
Chris Paul has better numbers than Melo and Kobe. But it's Durant.

Baller1
12-23-2012, 06:33 PM
It's easily KD so far this season. Look at that TS%... That's ****ing scary.

1. Durant
2. Lebron
3. CP3
4. Duncan
5. Kobe

Tysons_Beard
12-23-2012, 06:52 PM
lebron by far

Minimal
12-23-2012, 07:01 PM
LeBron each and every year, Durant close 2nd, Melo and Kobe far behind LBJ and KD.

tredigs
12-23-2012, 07:13 PM
KD has Lebron beat in Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, PPG, TS%, Win Shares, and 82Games' "Simple Rating": http://www.82games.com/1213/ROLRTG8.HTM. He's #1 in the league in multiple of those cats.

He's 7 tenths behind Lebron in PER at #2 in the league.

50/40/90 line on 28/8.4/4.2 with 1.5blks + 1.3 stls.

Lebron by far? KD's stats are better.

Corey
12-23-2012, 07:48 PM
KD by a slim margin over Lebron.

CP3 after them.

Swashcuff
12-24-2012, 11:00 AM
KD has Lebron beat in Offensive Rating, Defensive Rating, PPG, TS%, Win Shares, and 82Games' "Simple Rating": http://www.82games.com/1213/ROLRTG8.HTM. He's #1 in the league in multiple of those cats.

He's 7 tenths behind Lebron in PER at #2 in the league.

50/40/90 line on 28/8.4/4.2 with 1.5blks + 1.3 stls.

Lebron by far? KD's stats are better.

LeBron leads the league by a healthy margin over KD in terms of RAPM (http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html) and despite having the disadvantage in terms of scoring he has a big advantage in assists thus accounting for a greater portion of his teams offense.

Combined points and assists LeBron accounts for 41.3 of his teams 103.5 PPG which is essentially 40% of his team's offense. KD on the other hand accounts for 37.4 of his team's 105.1 PPG which is good for 35.5% of his team's offense. In other words no other player in the NBA is more valuable to his team's offense than LeBron James. Statistically Durant has been better defensively than LeBron however. Its a push either way in all honesty. I have no beef with it going either way.

quade36
12-24-2012, 11:32 AM
Kobe Bryant's statistics are pretty comparable to Durant's.

How so? Based on the stats you presented they aren't comparable. Durant's are overall way better.

RapOZo
12-24-2012, 11:53 AM
this gotta be lebron or KD.

btw, everytime I look at kobe's stats I wonder why is he labelled as a huge ball-hog when he averages more assists than guys like durant and almost 3 times more assists than Melo.

Ill21
12-24-2012, 11:53 AM
29.16 per :speechless:

LoveMeOrHateMe
12-24-2012, 12:20 PM
It is LeBron no contest. Please get of Kobe's jock. He shouldnt even be in the discussion or even be included :facepalm:

U mad?

LoveMeOrHateMe
12-24-2012, 12:22 PM
this gotta be lebron or KD.

btw, everytime I look at kobe's stats I wonder why is he labelled as a huge ball-hog when he averages more assists than guys like durant and almost 3 times more assists than Melo.

Because that's one of the very few excuses they use when speaking about Kobe because realistically u can't really hate on his game

TmacBryant
12-24-2012, 12:39 PM
For purely a hypothetical debate, if we do not include team record or player's role to the team's success as a merit for consideration in the MVP voting process, (obviously in real life it's integral, hence, Derrick Rose 2 years ago) who is this year's NBA MVP up to this point? I care more about the statistical argument than anything else.

Kobe Bryant is averaging 29.7 ppg on .471 shooting, .374 three point shooting, .861 free throw shooting, 5.4 RPG, 5 assists, 1.6 spg, and a PER of 25.26.

Carmelo Anthony is averaging 28 ppg on .472 shooting, .448 three point shooting, .82 free throw shooting, 6.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, and a per of 26.37

Lebron James is averaging 25.4 ppg on .542 shooting, .442 three point shooting, .683 free throw shooting, 8.5 RPG, 6.8 apg, and 1.3 spg and a PER of 29.16.

Kevin Durant is averaging 27.9 ppg on .521 shooting, .427 three point shooting, .904 free throw shooting, 8.4 RPG, and 4.2 APG, 1.3 BPG, and 1.5 SPG, with a PER of 28.38.

So who's the statistical NBA MVP?

I was going to say Lebron until I saw Durant's stats. They are pretty much equal on every statistic except for ppg, assists, and free throw percentage.

Durant avg's 2 more points, and has a much better free throw percentage.

Lebron has more assists but for some reason that 68% at the line screws it up lol.

I guess shaq won mvp with around 50% FT so it shouldn't matter.

bucketss
12-24-2012, 01:23 PM
this gotta be lebron or KD.

btw, everytime I look at kobe's stats I wonder why is he labelled as a huge ball-hog when he averages more assists than guys like durant and almost 3 times more assists than Melo.

well he does take horrible shots but people have been calling him a ball hog since that year he scored 81

RulerSlick
12-24-2012, 03:47 PM
lebron easily

JNoel
12-24-2012, 04:04 PM
Tim Duncan or Lebron

Avenged
12-24-2012, 04:45 PM
Lebron. Aside from those impressive offensive numbers, he also plays great defense. I mean, what is it 2 weeks without a foul? Yep. Bron.

FOBolous
12-24-2012, 04:57 PM
this gotta be lebron or KD.

btw, everytime I look at kobe's stats I wonder why is he labelled as a huge ball-hog when he averages more assists than guys like durant and almost 3 times more assists than Melo.

assists doesn't indicate how much of a "ball-hog" a person is. it just indicates how well a person is at initiating a play. look at shot attempts to see why he's labeled as a ball-hog. Kobe attempts more shot per game than any other players in the NBA. In fact, he's the ONLY player, besides Carmelo who's also labeled as a ball-hog, to attempt more than 20 shots a game.

and if you watch the games....Kobe attempts horrible shots. he has horrible shot selection.

tredigs
12-24-2012, 05:18 PM
Alright, Christmas break - a little over a 3rd of the way through the season - I'll try to break this down with 3 of my favorite metrics:


Win Shares: (AKA "Best box-score player". Offensive + Defensive box score. I choose this over PER because it is essentially the same compilation of box-score formula, but it also attempts to account for defense. I choose it over WS/48 because it gives rightful value to those who don't miss games and play the most mpg)

Kevin Durant (6.15)
Chris Paul (5.59)
Lebron James (5.01)
Kobe (4.78) ... Tyson Chandler (4.78)
Marc Gasol (4.02)


PPG X TS%: (AKA "Best scorer". I don't know if this one is commonly used on its own - or at all - but it makes sense to me. Gives the rightful value to both volume scorers and high efficiency scorers. And of course the most value to those who do both).


Kevin Durant (27.8 X .654 = 18.18)
Kobe Bryant (29.7 X .589 = 17.49)
Carmelo Anthony (28.3 X .588 = 16.64)
Lebron James (25.38 X .606 = 15.38) ... James Harden (25.64 X .600 = 15.38)
Paul Pierce (20.96 X .574 = 12.03)


RAPM (Regulated Adjusted Plus/Minus. From NBA Stuffer: "In RAPM the goal is to provide more accurate results by employing a special technique called "ridge regression" (a.k.a. regularization). It significantly reduces standard errors in Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM)." The stats I have are regulated for 100 possessions, so it's more like WS/48 than total Win Shares in that regard. The idea here is to gauge how many points your team gains or loses per 100 possessions with X player on the floor)


Lebron James (6.7 Offensive per/100 possessions + 0.8 Defensive per/100 = 7.5)
Chris Paul (6.5 O per/100 + 0.4 D per/100 = 6.9)
Kevin Garnett (0.2 O per/100 + 6.0 D per/100 = 6.2)
Tim Duncan (1.3 O + 4.6 D = 5.9) ... Manu Ginobili (5.6 O + 0.3 D = 5.9) ... Kevin Love (3.6 O + 2.2 D = 5.9)
Kevin Durant (4.8 O + 0.9 D = 5.7)


*You can also obviously have a negative impact per/100 on either end, which is the case for Harden (16th overall), Kobe (29th overall) and Melo (38th overall) on defense, despite both ranking in the top 10 on Offensive RAPM. Dwight is in the same situation on the other end, with his offense a -0.6 per/100 and Defense at 4.9 (2nd to KG), pitting him at 11th overall.

To me it seems like a clear cut 3 headed monster between Lebron, Durant and Chris Paul. I'm giving the edge to KD, but it's close enough that an argument could be made for all three.

RulerSlick
12-24-2012, 05:49 PM
I was going to say Lebron until I saw Durant's stats. They are pretty much equal on every statistic except for ppg, assists, and free throw percentage.

Durant avg's 2 more points, and has a much better free throw percentage.

Lebron has more assists but for some reason that 68% at the line screws it up lol.

I guess shaq won mvp with around 50% FT so it shouldn't matter.

lebron has more rbs, ast, higher actual Fg%, better 3pt % and less To's.

Guppyfighter
12-24-2012, 05:52 PM
Kobe Bryant's statistics in particular are pretty incredible.

Carmelo's and Durants are pretty comparable as well.

Obviously, Lebron's statistics year in and year out make him a viable candidate for the MVP.

I'm curious to what arguments people have to give.

Kobe's offense is pretty incredible, too bad his defense is hot garbage.

LaLa_Land
12-24-2012, 06:29 PM
Kobe and Timmy are great. They dominated their era, and they are the only ones still clinging to their seats within the round table of elite players. They are defying time and aging with grace, which is what great players do.

The simple fact that they are in the conversation with these young athletic monsters today is amazing in itself.

Statistical MVP has to go to Durant...he's just amazing. He and Melo are completely unstoppable on offense, so fun to watch. LeBron and Kobe are tied for second imo. This year's MVP will be a toss up, biased towards the records. It will probably end up being Durant, his has been coming for a little while now.

I expect for Kobe's shooting percentage to rise back to 50% once Nash really grabs the reigns. No more 41 FGA please, unless you're close to 81.

nytunnelvision
12-24-2012, 06:51 PM
It's between Lebron and Durant, IMO, and the other two are just a step below. Lebron and Durant just contribute in more ways than Kobe and Melo do. I'd say at this point Durant has a slight edge because of his WS/48. But if Lebron really wants to kick it into gear at any point and score more often, he can certainly do that.

I think the best way to describe my view on the MVP this season is that Durant has been the MVP, but Lebron James is still the best player in the NBA.

Nice way to put it

nytunnelvision
12-24-2012, 07:03 PM
Alright, Christmas break - a little over a 3rd of the way through the season - I'll try to break this down with 3 of my favorite metrics:


Win Shares: (AKA "Best box-score player". Offensive + Defensive box score. I choose this over PER because it is essentially the same compilation of box-score formula, but it also attempts to account for defense. I choose it over WS/48 because it gives rightful value to those who don't miss games and play the most mpg)

Kevin Durant (6.15)
Chris Paul (5.59)
Lebron James (5.01)
Kobe (4.78) ... Tyson Chandler (4.78)
Marc Gasol (4.02)


PPG X TS%: (AKA "Best scorer". I don't know if this one is commonly used on its own - or at all - but it makes sense to me. Gives the rightful value to both volume scorers and high efficiency scorers. And of course the most value to those who do both).


Kevin Durant (27.8 X .654 = 18.18)
Kobe Bryant (29.7 X .589 = 17.49)
Carmelo Anthony (28.3 X .588 = 16.64)
Lebron James (25.38 X .606 = 15.38) ... James Harden (25.64 X .600 = 15.38)
Paul Pierce (20.96 X .574 = 12.03)


RAPM (Regulated Adjusted Plus/Minus. From NBA Stuffer: "In RAPM the goal is to provide more accurate results by employing a special technique called "ridge regression" (a.k.a. regularization). It significantly reduces standard errors in Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM)." The stats I have are regulated for 100 possessions, so it's more like WS/48 than total Win Shares in that regard. The idea here is to gauge how many points your team gains or loses per 100 possessions with X player on the floor)


Lebron James (6.7 Offensive per/100 possessions + 0.8 Defensive per/100 = 7.5)
Chris Paul (6.5 O per/100 + 0.4 D per/100 = 6.9)
Kevin Garnett (0.2 O per/100 + 6.0 D per/100 = 6.2)
Tim Duncan (1.3 O + 4.6 D = 5.9) ... Manu Ginobili (5.6 O + 0.3 D = 5.9) ... Kevin Love (3.6 O + 2.2 D = 5.9)
Kevin Durant (4.8 O + 0.9 D = 5.7)


*You can also obviously have a negative impact per/100 on either end, which is the case for Harden (16th overall), Kobe (29th overall) and Melo (38th overall) on defense, despite both ranking in the top 10 on Offensive RAPM. Dwight is in the same situation on the other end, with his offense a -0.6 per/100 and Defense at 4.9 (2nd to KG), pitting him at 11th overall.

To me it seems like a clear cut 3 headed monster between Lebron, Durant and Chris Paul. I'm giving the edge to KD, but it's close enough that an argument could be made for all three.

Wow, I just learned a lot. Thanks for the PG*TS%, never heard of that one. I would be wary of using defensive stats though, not as bad as using UZR is baseball, but still tricky. In defense of Melo (I know I know, I'm a Knick fan, of course I'm defending Melo's D), they try not to have both him and Tyson on the bench at the same time, so his defensive/100 stats in RAPM are going to be negative since he's used in small lineups and lineups without Tyson sometimes.

Also, Durant logs minutes with Perkins, who kills their offensive rating (I think their starting lineup scores above league average but compared to other lineups, it's still below Thunder-average), so that might explain why he is only 7th in RAPM.

I loved reading about those stats, thanks.

tredigs
12-24-2012, 08:11 PM
Wow, I just learned a lot. Thanks for the PG*TS%, never heard of that one. I would be wary of using defensive stats though, not as bad as using UZR is baseball, but still tricky. In defense of Melo (I know I know, I'm a Knick fan, of course I'm defending Melo's D), they try not to have both him and Tyson on the bench at the same time, so his defensive/100 stats in RAPM are going to be negative since he's used in small lineups and lineups without Tyson sometimes.

Also, Durant logs minutes with Perkins, who kills their offensive rating (I think their starting lineup scores above league average but compared to other lineups, it's still below Thunder-average), so that might explain why he is only 7th in RAPM.

I loved reading about those stats, thanks.

Thanks and yeah no prob, they're fun to scour through on a rainy day. I haven't seen the PPG X TS% stat before either (really don't know why, seems obvious) but it's the way I've always thought of the best scorer, so I figured I'd throw it in. Agree with you on the defensive end, super hard to quantify and there are a ton of variables. By and large Defensive RAPM does a good job imo though.

As far as Carmelo, he's had a negative defensive RAPM every single season of his career (including this year), so I have to admit I'm a little weary of the improvements on that end that most Knick fans maintain he's had. On 82Games.com http://www.82games.com/1213/1213NYK2.HTM we can see that you have to go down to their 12th most used 5-man rotation to find a lineup where Anthony is in without Chandler (the top 4 most used lineups for NY have them both in).

Here's the RAPM page if anyone wants to check it out: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

ILLUSIONIST^248
12-24-2012, 08:21 PM
Durant.

bucketss
12-24-2012, 08:27 PM
Kobe and Timmy are great. They dominated their era, and they are the only ones still clinging to their seats within the round table of elite players. They are defying time and aging with grace, which is what great players do.

The simple fact that they are in the conversation with these young athletic monsters today is amazing in itself.

Statistical MVP has to go to Durant...he's just amazing. He and Melo are completely unstoppable on offense, so fun to watch. LeBron and Kobe are tied for second imo. This year's MVP will be a toss up, biased towards the records. It will probably end up being Durant, his has been coming for a little while now.

I expect for Kobe's shooting percentage to rise back to 50% once Nash really grabs the reigns. No more 41 FGA please, unless you're close to 81.

agreed up untill that point, lebron is clearly statistically above kobe.

b@llhog24
12-24-2012, 09:22 PM
this gotta be lebron or KD.

btw, everytime I look at kobe's stats I wonder why is he labelled as a huge ball-hog when he averages more assists than guys like durant and almost 3 times more assists than Melo.

Style of play and roster support.

arealballer
12-24-2012, 09:52 PM
With a better regular season record, Durant will likely win the mvp this season.

IndyRealist
12-24-2012, 09:59 PM
Kobe Bryant's statistics in particular are pretty incredible.

Carmelo's and Durants are pretty comparable as well.

Obviously, Lebron's statistics year in and year out make him a viable candidate for the MVP.

I'm curious to what arguments people have to give.

With the numbers you provided, Melo isn't even close to Durant.

TylerSL
12-25-2012, 12:55 AM
LeBron leads the league by a healthy margin over KD in terms of RAPM (http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.html) and despite having the disadvantage in terms of scoring he has a big advantage in assists thus accounting for a greater portion of his teams offense.

Combined points and assists LeBron accounts for 41.3 of his teams 103.5 PPG which is essentially 40% of his team's offense. KD on the other hand accounts for 37.4 of his team's 105.1 PPG which is good for 35.5% of his team's offense. In other words no other player in the NBA is more valuable to his team's offense than LeBron James. Statistically Durant has been better defensively than LeBron however. Its a push either way in all honesty. I have no beef with it going either way.

really good stuff, other than the link, where do you get your information?

Swashcuff
12-25-2012, 02:07 AM
really good stuff, other than the link, where do you get your information?

Hoopdata.com for this info as well as BBRef and 82games.com mostly.

Hawkeye15
12-25-2012, 02:15 AM
bron

Andrew32
12-25-2012, 04:22 AM
Why is Kobe even on the list.

It's between Lebron and Durant.

jerellh528
12-25-2012, 04:42 AM
Pretty remarkable how great Kobe is still playing even being a decade older than the other comparables. Kobe is a beast.

Andrew32
12-25-2012, 05:04 AM
Pretty remarkable how great Kobe is still playing even being a decade older than the other comparables. Kobe is a beast.

Agreed but neither him or Melo are that close to Lebron and Durant statistically.

b@llhog24
12-25-2012, 05:06 AM
Pretty remarkable how great Kobe is still playing even being a decade older than the other comparables. Kobe is a beast.

Agreed but neither him or Melo are that close to Lebron and Durant statistically.

Yep. Cp3 is ahead of the both of them.

Swashcuff
12-25-2012, 09:20 AM
Why is Kobe even on the list.

It's between Lebron and Durant.

If Melo is there Kobe gotta be there. It's not often a player gets damn near 30, 5 and 5 in the same season on solid efficiency to boot. We get so carried away with advanced metrics that we forget that there are still basic metrics still exist. CP3 should be there as well though.

Money_23
12-25-2012, 12:17 PM
Why is Kobe even on the list.

It's between Lebron and Durant.

why only call out Kobe when Melo is mentioned as well?

b@llhog24
12-25-2012, 01:13 PM
Agreed but neither him or Melo are that close to Lebron and Durant statistically.


why only call out Kobe when Melo is mentioned as well?

Well this could have saved you a bunch of time.