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View Full Version : Has Rebounding Become an Overrated Statistic?



shep33
12-13-2012, 05:31 PM
Just looking at some of the better teams in the NBA, and a few of them are terrible on the glass. Even in the past few years Boston, an Eastern power has never been a great rebounding team.


Bottom 4 in the NBA:

Boston
Miami
New York
Atlanta

The Clippers are 22nd
OKC and Memphis are 15th and 14th respectively

Sign of a change in the NBA? Small ball and quicker rotations defensively... lots of help leading to less rebounds?

Even when you look at rebounding rate (Hollinger) some of the elite teams aren't top 10.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/tea...rt/reboundRate


http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat...ing-percentage

krisxsong
12-13-2012, 05:35 PM
Individual rebounding IMO is overrated, team rebounding is not.

dhopisthename
12-13-2012, 05:37 PM
Overall rebounding yes, but not defensive %. It's nearly impossible to be a good defensive rebounding team if you can't defensive rebound

SteveNash
12-13-2012, 05:38 PM
It's been pretty overrated once players started making shots.


Overall rebounding yes, but not defensive %. It's nearly impossible to be a good defensive rebounding team if you can't defensive rebound

You don't say

HYFR
12-13-2012, 05:39 PM
It's a diff game now. 10 years ago you wouldn't see top teams with bad rebounding #s. a lot of small ball everywhere

Anji
12-13-2012, 05:44 PM
I think turnovers is being show to have a bigger impact on the game than rebounding.

Not even going to check, but I bet every one of those teams force more turnovers than they give up.

This what the SaberNerds don't understand, there are more ways to skin a cat in basketball than baseball.

Hawkeye15
12-13-2012, 05:59 PM
Just looking at some of the better teams in the NBA, and a few of them are terrible on the glass. Even in the past few years Boston, an Eastern power has never been a great rebounding team.


Bottom 4 in the NBA:

Boston
Miami
New York
Atlanta

The Clippers are 22nd
OKC and Memphis are 15th and 14th respectively

Sign of a change in the NBA? Small ball and quicker rotations defensively... lots of help leading to less rebounds?

where are you getting those rankings? Rebounds per game?

shep33
12-13-2012, 06:03 PM
where are you getting those rankings? Rebounds per game?

Yup team rebounds per game

Ebbs
12-13-2012, 06:13 PM
People do understand having the ball in possesion for the more time the better right?

Getting a defensive rebound prevents the opponent scoring. Getting an offensive rebound keeps the ball out of the oppositions hands and gives you a 2nd chance to score.

So no. One of the three basic elements of the game is not overrated,

lakers4sho
12-13-2012, 06:20 PM
have you tried reb%?

Robbw241
12-13-2012, 06:23 PM
When getting a rebound, players should have to catch it in their shorts.

IndyRealist
12-13-2012, 06:23 PM
Those are also efficient shooting teams that force turnovers. NBA.com covered this for the Celtics at one point. If you shoot well, there are less rebounds for you to get. If you play a slower pace, there are less rebounds. If you force a lot of turnovers, there are less rebounds.

One thing you need to do is look at more detailed numbers than rebounds per game, if you want to understand what's going on.

mightybosstone
12-13-2012, 06:24 PM
Just looking at some of the better teams in the NBA, and a few of them are terrible on the glass. Even in the past few years Boston, an Eastern power has never been a great rebounding team.


Bottom 4 in the NBA:

Boston
Miami
New York
Atlanta

The Clippers are 22nd
OKC and Memphis are 15th and 14th respectively

Sign of a change in the NBA? Small ball and quicker rotations defensively... lots of help leading to less rebounds?

As others have already said, individual rebounding is overrated, but team rebounding is not. An offensive rebound gives your team a second chance at making a basket in a possession and a defensive rebound prevents other teams from getting second chance opportunities. It's huge.

And one thing you'll notice about those teams you mentioned is that those squads are either among the best offensive and/or defensive teams in the league. So either they're making the most of their possessions or their defenses are so good that they can overcome poor defensive rebounding.

shep33
12-13-2012, 06:25 PM
have you tried reb%?

Even when you look at rebounding rate (Hollinger) some of the elite teams aren't top 10.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/reboundRate


http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/total-rebounding-percentage

NYKNYGNYY
12-13-2012, 06:32 PM
No rebounding is very important ....if you have more rebounds you have more opportunitys to sceptre especially defensive rebounds you take away a possessions from the other team ...rebounds are very important

Chronz
12-13-2012, 06:36 PM
Individually it can be. Team wise Im not sure how to answer that. Depends on how you value the other stats. In terms of the 4-factors, rebounding has a higher coefficient to winning than most if not all stats, but there is a direct correlation to it and opposing shooting%. When you attempt to account for that, defensive rebounding falls lower down the chain and offensive rebounding becomes more valuable.

Not sure what that means but thats based on a study by Dean O.

Twins Fanatic
12-13-2012, 06:41 PM
No it has not become overrated, especially on the offensive end.

AddiX
12-13-2012, 06:45 PM
Interesting topic. especially when you look at those rankings.

I'll have to think about this one.

jmoney85
12-13-2012, 06:54 PM
rebounds matter when we talk about brook lopez but they dont matter as much otherwise

Trueblue2
12-13-2012, 07:07 PM
That's like asking "is having possession of the ball important?". Of course rebounding is important, it just gets under appreciated because it's not a momentum shifter like a big shot/steal/pretty assist. There are other important parts ofthe game too, but if your team can't score efficiently or defend then rebounding becomes exponentially important.

JasonJohnHorn
12-13-2012, 07:13 PM
Considering how many bad shooters there are in the NBA, I would say rebounding is pretty important. Rebounding and defence.

You can make up for poor rebounding in other ways. If you shoot a high percentage for example. You don't need as many rebounds because you hit more shots. Likewise if you are a good defensive team and force teams to shoot at a low percentages, you can afford to be outrebounded, because if you are shooting .500 while the oposition shoots .400, you can essentially get more points with fewer shots, so even if you lose the rebounding battle by 5-10 boards, you can still win the game.

How is your defence? If you are causing a lot of turnovers and getting a lot of blocks, those are essentially taking away defensive rebounds from your team. So if you cause 15 turnovers in a game, and only commit say 5 yourself, you can fairly expect the other team to get about 10 more rebounds than you and still be in a position to win if you are shooting a better percentage.

Bottom line, if you are good enough at other things, you can compensate for losing the rebounding battle by ten or less boards a game, but if you are getting outrebounded consistently, by over ten, especially in a playoff series against a good defensive team, you are phuqed!

Rebounding + Defence = Championships (as long as your shooting percentage isn't too bad).



Also, it depends on being able to draw fouls. Can you get a lot of points at the line?

That said, half the battle is winning the rebounding catagory. You get more rebounds, you get more shot attempts. You get more shots attempts, you will likely get more points (unless you have poor shooters on your team).

I think if you listed every game every played in the post shot-clock era, and looked at the winning percentage of the teams that won the rebounding battle, it would be overwhelmingly in favour of the team that won the rebounding battle.

waveycrockett
12-13-2012, 07:16 PM
rebounds matter when we talk about brook lopez but they dont matter as much otherwise

this

scaramantula
12-13-2012, 07:30 PM
the statistic may be redundant, (becaus erebounds are largly random) but you can't take away the fact that there are great rebounders in the league, so its noce to keep around just to differentiate from the top tier rebounders and the rest of the league... and then theres bargnani

scaramantula
12-13-2012, 07:32 PM
That's like asking "is having possession of the ball important?". Of course rebounding is important, it just gets under appreciated because it's not a momentum shifter like a big shot/steal/pretty assist. There are other important parts ofthe game too, but if your team can't score efficiently or defend then rebounding becomes exponentially important.

hes not talking about rebounds in general hes talking about the statistics of counting rebounds, his point being does it really matter who catches the ball as long as their on your team

torocan
12-13-2012, 08:06 PM
I don't think so, if anything I think that Rebounding is often under rated in many ways.

The problem is counting individual rebounds is deceptive. Higher pace play means there's generally more rebounds available than in games with slower paces.

There are a fixed number of rebounds available in a game. As has been said before, SOMEONE has to get those rebounds. So, teams without strong Centers will inflate the rebounding statistics of their other positions.

However, what I DO believe is important (and sometimes overlooked) is rebounding differentials and rebounding percentages.

In the simplest terms, an extra rebound is an extra possession. A missed rebound means the other team holds onto a possession they should have gotten, or in the case of offensive rebounds, they Hijack a possession.

Like any aspect of offense OR defense, you can compensate for poor rebounding through superior shooting, or forcing turnovers, or better ball denial.

However, every Extra rebound you get against another team is a stop you do NOT need to make, a turnover you do NOT need to force, or a portion of a shot you do NOT need to make.

More importantly, taking away a Rebound DENIES the opposition a scoring possession.

Like any aspect of the game, the effect is cumulative, and the value of a rebound is mathematically correlated with how well you AND your opponent can score the ball.

The average NBA team has a TS% of 53%. That means every Extra rebound they garner is worth 1.06 points per possession.

OKC, with their TS% of 59% (best in the NBA), every Extra rebound is worth 1.18 points per possession.

Compare this with Washington's TS% of 49.1% (worst in the NBA).. for the Wizards, a rebound is worth 0.98 points per possession.

So, let's take those two scenario's. OKC gets 100 possessions, they score 118. The Wizards get 98 points with 100 possessions.

Now, imagine the Wizards get ONE extra rebound.

So, now OKC gets 99 possessions, and the Wizards get 101 possessions.

OKC - 116.82
Wizards - 98.98

That ONE rebound differential translates into 2.16 points in terms of point differential.

The difference is even MORE significant if you have two HIGH scoring percentage teams.

Miami has a TS% of 58.6%. That means ONE extra possession is worth 1.172 points on average.

If Miami gets ONE extra possession against OKC, it's worth 2.36 points in terms of swinging the game (1.172 + 1.18).

So, rebounds are STILL very meaningful, however, what you're seeing is that the poor rebounding teams that have won as of late are either Superior scorers or are able to offset their poor rebounding through other facets of offense or defense.

Now, imagine how much MORE dangerous those teams would be if they had superior rebounding...

shep33
12-13-2012, 08:11 PM
I don't think so, if anything I think that Rebounding is often under rated in many ways.

The problem is counting individual rebounds is deceptive. Higher pace play means there's generally more rebounds available than in games with slower paces.

There are a fixed number of rebounds available in a game. As has been said before, SOMEONE has to get those rebounds. So, teams without strong Centers will inflate the rebounding statistics of their other positions.

However, what I DO believe is important (and sometimes overlooked) is rebounding differentials and rebounding percentages.

In the simplest terms, an extra rebound is an extra possession. A missed rebound means the other team holds onto a possession they should have gotten, or in the case of offensive rebounds, they Hijack a possession.

Like any aspect of offense OR defense, you can compensate for poor rebounding through superior shooting, or forcing turnovers, or better ball denial.

However, every Extra rebound you get against another team is a stop you do NOT need to make, a turnover you do NOT need to force, or a portion of a shot you do NOT need to make.

More importantly, taking away a Rebound DENIES the opposition a scoring possession.

Like any aspect of the game, the effect is cumulative, and the value of a rebound is mathematically correlated with how well you AND your opponent can score the ball.

The average NBA team has a TS% of 53%. That means every Extra rebound they garner is worth 1.06 points per possession.

OKC, with their TS% of 59% (best in the NBA), every Extra rebound is worth 1.18 points per possession.
Compare this with Washington's TS% of 49.1% (worst in the NBA).. for the Wizards, a rebound is worth 0.98 points per possession.

So, let's take those two scenario's. OKC gets 100 possessions, they score 118. The Wizards get 98 points with 100 possessions.

Now, imagine the Wizards get ONE extra rebound.

So, now OKC gets 99 possessions, and the Wizards get 101 possessions.

OKC - 116.82
Wizards - 98.98

That ONE rebound differential translates into 2.16 points in terms of point differential.

The difference is even MORE significant if you have two HIGH scoring percentage teams.

Miami has a TS% of 58.6%. That means ONE extra possession is worth 1.172 points on average.

If Miami gets ONE extra possession against OKC, it's worth 2.36 points in terms of swinging the game (1.172 + 1.18).

So, rebounds are STILL very meaningful, however, what you're seeing is that the poor rebounding teams that have won as of late are either Superior scorers or are able to offset their poor rebounding through other facets of offense or defense.

Now, imagine how much MORE dangerous those teams would be if they had superior rebounding...

Great post. This is ultimately the idea that I was hoping someone would mention. Counting individual rebounds doesn't tell the whole story at all. Rebounding is a unique statistic because it can be correlated with so many other numbers (like Chronz mentioned).

You bring up same great points in terms of how it can be related to points per possession. Like you mention, rebounding is a very deceptive statistic.

jmoney85
12-13-2012, 08:18 PM
torocan you bring up great points but you have to remember that those teams that shoot the ball extremely well probably lack rebouding to have better shooting


usually teams that are extremely strong in certain areas tend to lack in other areas....

Hawkeye15
12-13-2012, 08:20 PM
Yup team rebounds per game

that won't factor in pace. I will say, offensive rebounding has shown to be more important, but I will never, in my life, be swayed from a team should be a good rebounding team over the long term to really be consistent winners.

Hawkeye15
12-13-2012, 08:27 PM
I don't think so, if anything I think that Rebounding is often under rated in many ways.

The problem is counting individual rebounds is deceptive. Higher pace play means there's generally more rebounds available than in games with slower paces.

There are a fixed number of rebounds available in a game. As has been said before, SOMEONE has to get those rebounds. So, teams without strong Centers will inflate the rebounding statistics of their other positions.

However, what I DO believe is important (and sometimes overlooked) is rebounding differentials and rebounding percentages.

In the simplest terms, an extra rebound is an extra possession. A missed rebound means the other team holds onto a possession they should have gotten, or in the case of offensive rebounds, they Hijack a possession.

Like any aspect of offense OR defense, you can compensate for poor rebounding through superior shooting, or forcing turnovers, or better ball denial.

However, every Extra rebound you get against another team is a stop you do NOT need to make, a turnover you do NOT need to force, or a portion of a shot you do NOT need to make.

More importantly, taking away a Rebound DENIES the opposition a scoring possession.

Like any aspect of the game, the effect is cumulative, and the value of a rebound is mathematically correlated with how well you AND your opponent can score the ball.

The average NBA team has a TS% of 53%. That means every Extra rebound they garner is worth 1.06 points per possession.

OKC, with their TS% of 59% (best in the NBA), every Extra rebound is worth 1.18 points per possession.

Compare this with Washington's TS% of 49.1% (worst in the NBA).. for the Wizards, a rebound is worth 0.98 points per possession.

So, let's take those two scenario's. OKC gets 100 possessions, they score 118. The Wizards get 98 points with 100 possessions.

Now, imagine the Wizards get ONE extra rebound.

So, now OKC gets 99 possessions, and the Wizards get 101 possessions.

OKC - 116.82
Wizards - 98.98

That ONE rebound differential translates into 2.16 points in terms of point differential.

The difference is even MORE significant if you have two HIGH scoring percentage teams.

Miami has a TS% of 58.6%. That means ONE extra possession is worth 1.172 points on average.

If Miami gets ONE extra possession against OKC, it's worth 2.36 points in terms of swinging the game (1.172 + 1.18).

So, rebounds are STILL very meaningful, however, what you're seeing is that the poor rebounding teams that have won as of late are either Superior scorers or are able to offset their poor rebounding through other facets of offense or defense.

Now, imagine how much MORE dangerous those teams would be if they had superior rebounding...

I agree with you 10000%. I can't forsee anyone convincing me that rebounding isn't a monster aspect of the game. I understand offensive rebounding is probably MORE important, but I refuse to believe defensive rebounding, at a team level, or individual level, are overrated.

Maybe its stuck in my head from growing up, and all my coaches. But its there, and there is evidence to suggest it.

Hawkeye15
12-13-2012, 08:30 PM
torocan you bring up great points but you have to remember that those teams that shoot the ball extremely well probably lack rebouding to have better shooting


usually teams that are extremely strong in certain areas tend to lack in other areas....

Of course, and that is why its a give and take. But at its base level, if you can rebound the ball, that will ALWAYS be a positive.

jmoney85
12-13-2012, 08:32 PM
I definitely see the importance of rebounding... I see the impact reggie evans has had with the nets with the key offensive rebounds he grabs and the momentum swing it can give

Blitzbolt
12-14-2012, 12:15 AM
I definitely see the importance of rebounding... I see the impact reggie evans has had with the nets with the key offensive rebounds he grabs and the momentum swing it can give

I agree with this Players are so worried about ZBO getting a offensive rebound that they leave other players open and Gives players more space so it has a big impact.

kingsdelez24
12-14-2012, 10:04 AM
Yeah it totally is, just ask Brook Lopez

corytwotimes
12-14-2012, 10:57 AM
Not at all. It's just as important as any other aspect of the game.

Chronz
12-14-2012, 02:28 PM
Not at all. It's just as important as any other aspect of the game.

A good example of how you can tell that someone is overrating/underrating a stat is when they actually compare that stat to something else. And IMO, rebounding isnt as important as shooting the ball. Id wager to say its not even as important as protecting the ball.

corytwotimes
12-14-2012, 02:32 PM
A good example of how you can tell that someone is overrating/underrating a stat is when they actually compare that stat to something else. And IMO, rebounding isnt as important as shooting the ball. Id wager to say its not even as important as protecting the ball.

u ever learn about fact vs opinion in school??? that argument will never be a "fact", the truth is in the eye of the beholder.....u cant say rebounding is any LESS important than any other aspect of the game...look at the ratio of teams that won games that also outrebounded the other team those games.....and your "argument can be summed up by your magic acronym "IMO", in YOUR opinion

JiffyMix88
12-14-2012, 02:37 PM
no you know whats an overrated stat?


ASSIST

Chronz
12-14-2012, 02:41 PM
u ever learn about fact vs opinion in school??? that argument will never be a "fact", the truth is in the eye of the beholder.....u cant say rebounding is any LESS important than any other aspect of the game...look at the ratio of teams that won games that also outrebounded the other team those games.....and your "argument can be summed up by your magic acronym "IMO", in YOUR opinion
Your not very good at this are you?

Re-read my post, do you see the presence of the word fact? I see the absence of that word. Do you see the presence of the word "IMO", I do. Therefore, there is NOTHING to suggest that I am talking facts, I am disagreeing with his opinion, which if you read HIS POST, came off as is he was trying to speak facts. When clearly they all cant be EQUALLY valuable.


Now that your all caught up, can you explain this particular line to me?


look at the ratio of teams that won games that also outrebounded the other team those games

Did you skip my prior post, I have seen the numbers. Its called regression analysis and from what I've seen, it backs my opinion.

corytwotimes
12-14-2012, 03:45 PM
Your not very good at this are you?

Re-read my post, do you see the presence of the word fact? I see the absence of that word. Do you see the presence of the word "IMO", I do. Therefore, there is NOTHING to suggest that I am talking facts, I am disagreeing with his opinion, which if you read HIS POST, came off as is he was trying to speak facts. When clearly they all cant be EQUALLY valuable.


Now that your all caught up, can you explain this particular line to me?



Did you skip my prior post, I have seen the numbers. Its called regression analysis and from what I've seen, it backs my opinion.


thats debatable

Chronz
12-14-2012, 04:23 PM
thats debatable

Really now, you think they all match up evenly? :eyebrow:

So then what do you make of all these stat guys coming up with different linear weights? Say what you will about the values they assign, whether your pro efficiency, usage, rebounding, whatever... the one thing they all agree on is that they are not created equally.

And you still didn't answer my question, the very idea behind regression analysis is to help spot trends and relationships to other stats, and in basketball, those stats seem to indicate a different correlation to winning. I dont know if they are right, but to assume they are all equal is the LAST conclusion I would settle on.

Is there any justification to your debate?

corytwotimes
12-14-2012, 05:32 PM
Really now, you think they all match up evenly? :eyebrow:

So then what do you make of all these stat guys coming up with different linear weights? Say what you will about the values they assign, whether your pro efficiency, usage, rebounding, whatever... the one thing they all agree on is that they are not created equally.

And you still didn't answer my question, the very idea behind regression analysis is to help spot trends and relationships to other stats, and in basketball, those stats seem to indicate a different correlation to winning. I dont know if they are right, but to assume they are all equal is the LAST conclusion I would settle on.

Is there any justification to your debate?



No I dont think they all match up 100% evenly....I beleive that there's a correlation between all aspects of the game, and you cant accuratley judge one area without involving the other side of it. You cant just look at Rondo's assists compared to Irving's, and assume rondo is better at passing than Irving, when Rondo has MUCH better options to actually score and credit Rondo for the assist.........while rebounding may not be the most important aspect, if you dont rebound, then you dont get the ball, if you dont get the ball, then you dont score..............you see, kiddo, 2+2 DOES equal 4!!!! yaaaaayyyy

Sactown
12-14-2012, 06:38 PM
I think Rebounds per game is an overrated statistics, but rebounding differential I don't think is , or #'s of offensive rebounds, or if a team allows the least amount of 2nd chance points.. But I think rebounding is more telling of good team defense. A good defense sequence requires not allowing penetration, rotating, challenging shots, and FINALLY rebounding.