PDA

View Full Version : Red Sox sign Ryan Dempster for 2 years 26.5 million



xnick5757
12-13-2012, 11:26 AM
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/279235590120144898


Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Red Sox are close to an agreement with Ryan Dempster.

Dempster has turned down multiple two-year offers this winter in search of something a little longer and may have finally found it in his negotiations with Boston. The 35-year-old right-hander posted a solid 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 153/52 K/BB ratio across 173 innings this past season between Chicago and Texas. He would bring some reliability to an iffy Red Sox starting rotation.

tc2deuce
12-13-2012, 11:42 AM
Up in the air about this signing

mooz
12-13-2012, 11:45 AM
I don't like this. I can deal with it if it's a high AAV 2 year deal but if it's a 3 year deal this is bad. I see an ERA of 4.50-5.50 in year two on. Year one he may be able to put together a solid year based on hitters' unfamiliarity with him. I still don't see him being any better than around a 4.00 ERA in year one though. At least he eats innings.

Gibby23
12-13-2012, 11:47 AM
Whats up with Rubby De La Rosa? Is he not going to be in the rotation this year?

Celtic AL
12-13-2012, 11:49 AM
Whats up with Rubby De La Rosa? Is he not going to be in the rotation this year?

hes going to get a try out this spring but most likely start in AAA. but will be called midseason if ready

Gibby23
12-13-2012, 11:51 AM
hes going to get a try out this spring but most likely start in AAA. but will be called midseason if ready

Cool. Want to see him do well.

mooz
12-13-2012, 11:56 AM
Cool. Want to see him do well.

Me too. I like that they intend to give him at least a year to recover from TJ surgery before he's assumed to be in the rotation or on the major league club. The guy has exceptional stuff.

bagwell368
12-13-2012, 12:06 PM
The AL East isn't quite as terrifying as it used to be. That being said Dempster looks like a 4.30 ERA pitcher to me across 3 years - or about a 102 ERA+. If he pitches ~195 IP x 3, and one of the kids makes it into the rotation by mid '14, look for at least one of: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey to be dealt.

To me, Rubby's intro the bigs will be as a RP, not SP.

LA Sox Fan
12-13-2012, 12:08 PM
I don't like this at all. If it's still a 2-year deal, just for more money, then I just dislike it. If it's for 3 years then I absolutely hate it.

Dempster spent his entire career in the NL until he was traded to Texas last season. In his first AL stint he posted an ERA over 5. I realize that it's not based on a huge sample size (12 starts I believe) but the guy is 35 years old. Unless he's aging backwards that doesn't seem like things are trending in the right direction. In what world does this signing make any sense, especially in the AL East?

I'd much rather see the Sox give Morales or De La Rosa or just about anyone a shot before signing Dempster. I don't understand why baseball teams (not just the Sox) can't simply acknowledge when there is a piss-poor FA class and bid accordingly. This is insane.

wolf82
12-13-2012, 12:14 PM
I don't like this at all. If it's still a 2-year deal, just for more money, then I just dislike it. If it's for 3 years then I absolutely hate it.

Dempster spent his entire career in the NL until he was traded to Texas last season. In his first AL stint he posted an ERA over 5. I realize that it's not based on a huge sample size (12 starts I believe) but the guy is 35 years old. Unless he's aging backwards that doesn't seem like things are trending in the right direction. In what world does this signing make any sense, especially in the AL East?

I'd much rather see the Sox give Morales or De La Rosa or just about anyone a shot before signing Dempster. I don't understand why baseball teams (not just the Sox) can't simply acknowledge when there is a piss-poor FA class and bid accordingly. This is insane.

I agree. I don't like this signing. 3 years for a 35+ old pitcher. He came to the AL and got lit up. I would have rathered them go after Jackson. He is younger, same amount of innings (200+) and probably would have come cheaper.

Fla.SticKy
12-13-2012, 12:38 PM
The AL East isn't quite as terrifying as it used to be. That being said Dempster looks like a 4.30 ERA pitcher to me across 3 years - or about a 102 ERA+. If he pitches ~195 IP x 3, and one of the kids makes it into the rotation by mid '14, look for at least one of: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey to be dealt.

To me, Rubby's intro the bigs will be as a RP, not SP.

For the love of God please let it be J.Lackey! :pray:

Fla.SticKy
12-13-2012, 12:40 PM
I agree. I don't like this signing. 3 years for a 35+ old pitcher. He came to the AL and got lit up. I would have rathered them go after Jackson. He is younger, same amount of innings (200+) and probably would have come cheaper.

Agreed 100%!

ricomactaco
12-13-2012, 12:48 PM
I agree. I don't like this signing. 3 years for a 35+ old pitcher. He came to the AL and got lit up. I would have rathered them go after Jackson. He is younger, same amount of innings (200+) and probably would have come cheaper.

Also agree. Unless Jacksons demands are just absurd.

wolf82
12-13-2012, 01:06 PM
Also agree. Unless Jacksons demands are just absurd.

All I know is that Jackson didn't want to go year to year anymore, and wants a multi-year deal.

Last i heard the Nationals offered another 1 yr 10 mil. I would have offered 2 yr/22.5 mil

JPBoston
12-13-2012, 01:18 PM
The AL East isn't quite as terrifying as it used to be. That being said Dempster looks like a 4.30 ERA pitcher to me across 3 years - or about a 102 ERA+. If he pitches ~195 IP x 3, and one of the kids makes it into the rotation by mid '14, look for at least one of: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey to be dealt.

To me, Rubby's intro the bigs will be as a RP, not SP.

Haha -- I was just about to say that it's hard to get excited about a probable 4.3 ERA guy.

I understand it if nobody else would be available for the next three years, but why lock ourselves up with an aging middle of the road guy at this point in the team's restructuring?

Nomar
12-13-2012, 01:19 PM
Really would prefer a two year deal with this guy. Hopefully we go big money on 2 years. Id go 2/$32M to get it done.

As far as if he is an AL or NL pitcher... everyone is an NL pitcher. It's easier to pitch there. It's a fact. But Dempster's K/9 went from 7.2 in the NL to 9.1 in the AL, and his BB/9 jumped from 2.3 in the NL to 3.3 in the AL. This tells me that he was reaching back and likely overthrowing in attempts to prove himself to his new team/fans rather than not being cut out for the AL. To me, with his declining FB velocity, he's going to have to keep his BB/9 at 2.5 or lower to be a #3 starter. Hopefully he can be a workhorse ~190 IP regardless though.

JPBoston
12-13-2012, 01:22 PM
I just read the Dempster stats Bags posted in the Rumor thread...

I change my 4.3era prediction to 4.75. ;)

Celtic AL
12-13-2012, 01:25 PM
@alexspeier: #redsox, Dempster believed to be working on framework of two-year deal. http://t.co/Gzm00vTb

.

-Lavigne43-
12-13-2012, 01:35 PM
According to Ken Rosenthal, Ryan Dempster is close to signing with the Boston Red Sox. Assuming the deal gets done, you’re going to hear a lot about how Dempster is an NL pitcher transitioning to the AL East, and how this is bound to go poorly. You’re going to hear about Dempster’s 5.09 ERA with Texas after the mid-season trade ended his long stint as an NL only pitcher, and you’re going to hear about how he got taken apart by the Yankees, giving up eight runs in six innings of work.

Because Dempster is headed for his age-36 season, has a fastball that sits around 90 mph, and had spent his entire career in the NL before the mid-season trade to Texas, many are going to expect Dempster to be exposed in the AL East. Whenever a pitcher without top-shelf velocity makes the move from the NL to the AL, and especially to the AL east, there’s always an expectation of disaster. The theory goes that pitchers with marginal velocity can dominate in the NL, but get exposed when facing the big bats of the super scary American League East.

The problem is that we’ve got too many pieces of evidence to suggest that it’s not true.

Last year, the guy making the big move was Hiroki Kuroda. At 37, he was leaving Dodger Stadium and the NL West for the Yankees, and he was going to find out just how different life was on the east coast, with the warm summers, small ballparks, and fearsome offensive line-ups. Instead of regressing, Kuroda had perhaps the best season of his career. His ERA- of 79 was tied for the sixth best mark in the league, and his peripheral numbers all head steady, even his strikeout rate. There was next to no difference between NL West Kuroda and AL East Kuroda.

Kuroda wasn’t the only NL West pitcher who made his way to the AL East last year. Jason Hammel was traded from Colorado to Baltimore in exchange for Jeremy Guthrie, and while leaving Colorado is always good for a pitcher’s career, landing in Baltimore didn’t seem like a huge improvement for a guy who had already been bounced out of the division after struggling in his early career with the Devil Rays. Instead, Hammel reinvented himself, added a two-seam fastball and some velocity, and posted career bests in bsaically every relevant pitching category. Hammel’s career HR/9 before last year was 1.06, but then he took his act to Baltimore and allowed 0.69 HR/9 while transitioning back to the AL East.

Going back to 2011, we see soft-tossing right-handers Carlos Villanueva and Freddy Garcia coming east, with Villanueva also making the switch from the National League. Over the last two years, Villanueva has posted an ERA- of 100, while Garcia has come in at 102, both improving over their performances with their previous clubs. And neither are exactly what you’d call stuff guys.

Even international rookies Miguel Gonzalez and Wei-Yin Chen had few problems transitioning to the AL East last year, despite throwing fastballs that sit around 91 and lacking anything resembling a true out pitch. Chen and Gonzalez both posted ERAs that were significantly better than their secondary results would suggest, but even with expected regression, they performed better than expected given their stuff and the supposed heightened level of competition in that division.

Yes, the AL East features some good offensive clubs, some smaller ballparks, and the heat and humidity of on the eastern seaboard allows the ball to carry better in the summer months than it does out west. Yes, the DH means that fringy pitchers have to get an extra big league hitter out each time, and can’t pitch around the bottom of the order the same way they can in the NL. Pitching in the AL East is harder than pitching in the NL Central.

But, the difference isn’t so large that it should be expected to turn a good pitcher into a bad one, and make no mistake, Ryan Dempster is a good pitcher. He’s posted an xFIP- between 85 and 96 every year since 2005, so while variation in BABIP and LOB% has caused his results to jump around a bit, he’s always regressed right back into being an above average hurler. Last year, his ERA was artificially low in Chicago because of a .255 BABIP, and it was artificially high in Texas because of a .330 BABIP. He didn’t magically get worse when he moved to the AL – his BABIP was just bouncing around randomly, as BABIPs do from time to time. In fact, he actually increased his K% after moving to the AL, which doesn’t really fit into the “NL pitcher” narrative.

Headed into his age-36 season, Dempster is almost certainly on the downside of his career, and can be expected to get a little worse just from natural aging. It’s probably safter to project him as an average pitcher for the next few years rather than an above average one. But, there’s really no reason to think that he’s just going to find the AL East so inhospitable that he’s incapable of getting hitters out, or that there’s any real evidence that pitchers without big time stuff fall apart once they have to face the Yankees a few times each year. Adjusting for quality of competition and the differences between leagues is one thing; pretending that there’s a gap so large that pitchers can’t successfully move from the NL to AL East is just not representative of reality, however.



http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ryan-dempster-quality-al-pitcher/

Vincent33
12-13-2012, 01:42 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6dm9rN6oTs

bagwell368
12-13-2012, 01:59 PM
Haha -- I was just about to say that it's hard to get excited about a probable 4.3 ERA guy.

I understand it if nobody else would be available for the next three years, but why lock ourselves up with an aging middle of the road guy at this point in the team's restructuring?

Because he's a top clubhouse guy of course...

Damn I want the Sox to scout my kid! Made Captain as a Jr in both HS and College. Natural leader, hardest worker on his teams.

As his agent we're good with 3 yrs/$39M, Mr. Charrington.

Super.
12-13-2012, 01:59 PM
He had an ERA- of 116 with Texas last year. I'm kinda iffy about the signing, but for two years? I don't think it'll be terrible...hopefully.

todu82
12-13-2012, 02:01 PM
Again, I like Dempster but not for the amount and that long.

Bo Sox Fan
12-13-2012, 02:06 PM
He had a 43.5% ground ball rate last year, and he's going to have the defensive wizardry of Jose Iglesias (for now) and Dustin Pedroia covering the middle infield for him. I can't see this being a bad thing.

Double plays galore

On another note, I hope we don't handcuff ourselves financially for next offseason if/when Tim Lincecum becomes a free agent.

AI
12-13-2012, 02:07 PM
.

2 years is gravy.

MoVaughnsLunch
12-13-2012, 02:25 PM
I like it if its two years, but...

Is there something in play here? Could we be working to move ells and buch to get a legit one?

Towelie
12-13-2012, 02:35 PM
2 years for a 40+% GB pitcher. He was unlucky for texas too.

Nomar
12-13-2012, 02:35 PM
I like it if its two years, but...

Is there something in play here? Could we be working to move ells and buch to get a legit one?

We have Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, and Lackey as starters now with Morales as a loogy. Dempster would assume the #3 SP role, and gives us no reason to trade Ells/Buchholz. We have the same trade incentives now as we did before. But at least now if we traded a SP we know we already have one SP signed.

Personally i still wouldnt mind trading Clay if something good came along, and signing EJax after.

Celtic AL
12-13-2012, 02:37 PM
It could be 2 years and a club option

Nomar
12-13-2012, 02:39 PM
It could be 2 years and a club option

Yeah I think its going to be 2 years with a 3rd year team option and buyout.

Super.
12-13-2012, 02:46 PM
He had a 43.5% ground ball rate last year, and he's going to have the defensive wizardry of Jose Iglesias (for now) and Dustin Pedroia covering the middle infield for him. I can't see this being a bad thing.

Double plays galore

On another note, I hope we don't handcuff ourselves financially for next offseason if/when Tim Lincecum becomes a free agent.

Lincecum ****ing blows. Seriously he has not even been remotely as good as he once was.

Nomar
12-13-2012, 02:51 PM
I'd rather go for Halladay next offseason than Lincecum. I dont care about his age, Doc will be solid until hes like 41.

j-bay
12-13-2012, 02:52 PM
BOSTON -- The Boston Red Sox are confident they are closing in on an agreement with free-agent pitcher Ryan Dempster, according to a baseball source.

There were indications Thursday that the veteran pitcher will not require a third year on his contract to seal the deal, the source said.
The right-handed Dempster turned down a two-year, $25 million offer last week from the Red Sox and a two-year, $26 million deal from the Royals, according to the source. The 35-year-old Dempster was believed to be seeking a three-year deal.

Dempster was a mainstay of the Chicago Cubs' rotation for nine seasons before being dealt to the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline last July. He struggled initially with the Rangers, then reeled off five consecutive wins before tailing off at the end.

Dempster had four straight seasons of at least 200 innings for the Cubs, with whom he had a 2.25 ERA in 16 starts last season before being traded. His stint with the Rangers was his first in the American League after spending nearly 15 seasons in the National League. He broke in with the Florida Marlins and also pitched two seasons for the Cincinnati Reds.

Two stints on the disabled list this past season cost Dempster a fifth straight season of 200 innings. He missed time early in the season with a strained right quadriceps, and in mid-June he was sidelined for 19 games with a strained lat muscle.

Dempster was charged with eight earned runs in two of his first three starts with Texas, but then went 5-0 with a 1.91 ERA in his next five starts, striking out 36 in 33 innings. He wound up with 70 strikeouts in 69 innings for the Rangers, and his 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings with Texas were the most of his career.

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8744243/ryan-dempster-boston-red-sox-close-deal-source

Caveman508
12-13-2012, 03:05 PM
please no please.... once he went from NL to AL his numbers dropped

grandsalami
12-13-2012, 03:49 PM
RT @Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: Dempster close with #RedSox on two-year, $26.5 million free-agent contract

Soxfan85
12-13-2012, 03:49 PM
JennyDellNESN RT @Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: Dempster close with #RedSox on two-year, $26.5 million free-agent contract.

eh

Ken_Rosenthal Dempster and #RedSox are in agreement, pending physical.

So he turns down 2 yrs 25M and agrees 26.5M? :laugh:

Sweet_Caroline
12-13-2012, 03:53 PM
2 years isn't completely awful.

grandsalami
12-13-2012, 03:53 PM
eh

Ken_Rosenthal Dempster and #RedSox are in agreement, pending physical.

not that bad of a deal IMO, everyone on the FA market is being overpaid

j-bay
12-13-2012, 03:55 PM
@Ken_Rosenthal: Dempster and #RedSox are in agreement, pending physical.

@Ken_Rosenthal: Sources: Dempster close with #RedSox on two-year, $26.5 million free-agent contract

Super.
12-13-2012, 03:56 PM
26.5M eh?

Guess Dempster was holding out for that 500k

Nomar
12-13-2012, 03:57 PM
Wow not bad at all salary or years. Very happy with this.

Nomar
12-13-2012, 03:57 PM
26.5M eh?

Guess Dempster was holding out for that 500k

Exactly what i was thinking. Getting that 4 bed, 2 bath colonial in the Boston area i guess.

Lackeyfan41
12-13-2012, 03:58 PM
Not bad at 26.5 over 2 years. If it is 3 years it is a bad deal, 2 years is good.

Now lets see what they do with Salty.

B'sCeltsPatsSox
12-13-2012, 03:59 PM
I think it's a fine. Not really huge about it but it isn't really terrible either.

bagwell368
12-13-2012, 04:00 PM
Not bad at 26.5 over 2 years. If it is 3 years it is a bad deal, 2 years is good.

Now lets see what they do with Salty.

No thanks, Salty has be to be dealt.

AI
12-13-2012, 04:01 PM
Everybody hating on this deal since the start ready to eat crow yet? 2/26.5 is a very good deal for us.

Nomar
12-13-2012, 04:01 PM
It has to be $13.something mil a year or we aren't interested this offseason.

mooz
12-13-2012, 04:04 PM
Everybody hating on this deal since the start ready to eat crow yet? 2/26.5 is a very good deal for us.

I said I could live with 2 years! That's a GREAT deal tho, I thought it was gonna be around 30 mil.

RaginRondo17
12-13-2012, 04:05 PM
Not a huge Dempster fan, but the guy can eat innings. Can't complain if we get near 200 innings with an ERA below 4.50 out of our 4th or 5th starter.

2012: 173 (only 28 starts)
2011: 202.1
2010: 215.1
2009: 200
2008: 206.2

Super.
12-13-2012, 04:06 PM
I think it's a fine. Not really huge about it but it isn't really terrible either.

Agreed. Im not super happy about it, but it's what we needed.

Hopefully Lackey is an innings eater that isn't completely terrible.

Just looked at the bill james projections (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1507&position=P) for him...Not that bad at all.

bruins>habs
12-13-2012, 04:07 PM
Lester
Buchholz
Dempster
Doubrant
Lackey

isn't bad if everything plays out right

or is Dempster going to be lower on the staff :shrug:

Soxfan85
12-13-2012, 04:13 PM
GordonEdes RT @Joelsherman1: Dempster goes to #Redsox, his career v. #Yankees: 5GS 0-4, 7.62 ERA.

Oh goodie!

Celtic AL
12-13-2012, 04:14 PM
Better pitcher then a lazy fat Josh Beckett

grandsalami
12-13-2012, 04:16 PM
Oh goodie!

SSS, same could be said in a way for kuroda going from NL to yankees

quinnjack
12-13-2012, 04:32 PM
Lincecum ****ing blows. Seriously he has not even been remotely as good as he once was.

What a stupid statement.

Bo Sox Fan
12-13-2012, 04:33 PM
I think we should consider making David Ross our everyday starting catcher, or atleast give him 4 games a week to Lavarnway's 3.

Whoever vastly help's the pitching staff out the most, because both guys can hit.

Tragedy
12-13-2012, 04:33 PM
I think hell get shelled in the AL east.

But I understand what the Sox are doing and I don't blame them. Stay competitive in the short term with decent players that will generate fan interest (with much better chemistry), keep our draft picks (none of the guys we signed had compensation connected to them), and in a few years when all these guys are done, we can integrate the youth.

ruckus16969
12-13-2012, 04:35 PM
Why do we need another 4 pitcher? We already have 3 of them in clay duburont and lackey. This dont make sense to me. Probably gonna be a disaster

Nomar
12-13-2012, 04:41 PM
Lol Clay isnt a #4

Towelie
12-13-2012, 04:56 PM
Oh goodie!

oh no! Not with that massive sample size! A whole 5 starts!

That being said I see him as our 3-4 guy with a 4.25-4.50 ERA. I'll take it. His GB% is good, and should be ok at Fenway but who knows. He's our Josh Beckett replacement for 2 seasons, it's not too bad at all. He was the next best FA pitcher IMO.

bagwell368
12-13-2012, 05:03 PM
Oh goodie!

As if the Skanks have as good a line-up as when most of those numbers were put up.

bagwell368
12-13-2012, 05:04 PM
Lol Clay isnt a #4

Right, outside of his big year he doesn't get enough innings to be anything but a #5.

Nomar
12-13-2012, 05:07 PM
Right, outside of his big year he doesn't get enough innings to be anything but a #5.

Stats back that, but in trade value/theory he is a #3 or 2 in a second division. This is the reason why i want him traded. He's controlled and never lives up to expectations. Deal him while you can.

MiamiBoy77
12-13-2012, 05:35 PM
I like it for 2 years. When he's done the kids will be ready

ruckus16969
12-13-2012, 05:49 PM
Lol Clay isnt a #4

Lol I know just frustrated. Not Big on Dempster in the al east. Or even the al at all. But really clay isnt much more then 3 Pitcher tho. Bellow average 2 I gueas

-Lavigne43-
12-13-2012, 05:57 PM
Good deal. That's barely more than what he rejected :laugh2:

Bagofdonuts
12-13-2012, 06:46 PM
I'm trying to look at this signing for what it is. We would all love an "ace", or even a great #2 with youth on his side. I feel it was an ok signing in terms of strengthening the back end. As much as we all want something better and younger, we have to really compare Dempster to what we had last year. I feel he will be replacing Dice K and or Cook, and I feel he will be a clear upgrade over Dice K and Cook. We will continue to wait for our "ace" expectations to be fulfilled.....

Seguin
12-13-2012, 06:46 PM
The sox needed another starter and this was one of the best available without giving prospect and without giving anyone long years at big money. If he pitches near his career average and grab 12+ wins he should be worth it as a #3 at best in the sox rotation.

Soxfan85
12-13-2012, 06:55 PM
bnightengale the #cubs are still finalizing the details, but sanchez has agreed to the five-year deal that will be announced after physical

wow

Nomar
12-13-2012, 06:55 PM
Sanchez got a 5 year deal. **** that

Soxfan85
12-13-2012, 06:56 PM
Sanchez got a 5 year deal. **** that

Everytime I post someone as posted i refreshed 100x lol :mad:

Nomar
12-13-2012, 07:05 PM
Cubs are underrated. Garza, Shark, Sanchez, Baker, Felman/Wood is a good rotation. Castro and Rizzo are solid, and Vitters and Jackson should definitely improve this year too. Soriano and Dejesus are productive offensively as well. Castillo is a solid catcher. They'll have solid defense too. In that division they can surprise people.

Celtic AL
12-13-2012, 07:06 PM
15mill per year? mehh

mzg32
12-13-2012, 07:07 PM
I'm not a big fan of Dempster but I understand the move given the situation both we and the market are in.

OTOH, I think we should have plans B and C, but I think we'll have to deal with at least one DL stint for one of our current SP (hopefuly I'm wrong) and I'm frankly not comfortable with Morales, Aceves or RDLR filling in.

I'd like us to get E.Jackson and let Lackey, Dubie and Dempster battle for the 5th spot of the rotation.

Celtic AL
12-13-2012, 07:12 PM
One of the guys on Fangraphs on MLB network thinks this is a good deal & also says he could another be hiroki kuroda

penuch
12-13-2012, 07:32 PM
I'm not a big fan of Dempster but I understand the move given the situation both we and the market are in.

OTOH, I think we should have plans B and C, but I think we'll have to deal with at least one DL stint for one of our current SP (hopefuly I'm wrong) and I'm frankly not comfortable with Morales, Aceves or RDLR filling in.

I'd like us to get E.Jackson and let Lackey, Dubie and Dempster battle for the 5th spot of the rotation.

We already have it! It's Morales and Aceves. You might be comfortable with them be Morales was more than serviceable during his time in the rotations last year (7gms). Aceves has the arm to be able to go between the bullpen and rotation. He is a much better pitcher than he showed last year, was never comfortable in the role given to him.

Why go pay for insurance policies when we already have them....

AI
12-13-2012, 07:41 PM
Lester-Buchholz-Lackey-Dempster-Doubront-Morales-Aceves is pretty good depth so far.

We haven't even mentioned the kids who might be ready midseason, I likey. :)

SirHizz
12-13-2012, 07:48 PM
We've officially waived the white flag. I know what we're doing...trying to play respectable baseball and not get humiliated again. That's it, .500 is a realistic goal.
I don't care at this point.

LA Sox Fan
12-13-2012, 08:00 PM
Everybody hating on this deal since the start ready to eat crow yet? 2/26.5 is a very good deal for us.

I'll only eat crow if Dempster performs well. Because that's a lot of money for a 35-year old pitcher who failed miserably, admittedly in a very short time frame, in the AL. I like that it's two years instead of three but I think that he's going to be meat in the AL East. I hope I'm wrong about that.

Nomar
12-13-2012, 08:05 PM
I'll only eat crow if Dempster performs well. Because that's a lot of money for a 35-year old pitcher who failed miserably, admittedly in a very short time frame, in the AL. I like that it's two years instead of three but I think that he's going to be meat in the AL East. I hope I'm wrong about that.

He had a couple 8 run games that weighted his stats. He went 7-3 still, not too bad. W-L doesnt mean much, but he really wasnt as bad as his ERA shows. Look at his FIP and SIERA last year, they were good.

poprocksncoke
12-13-2012, 08:11 PM
One of the guys on Fangraphs on MLB network thinks this is a good deal & also says he could another be hiroki kuroda

Wait............. Dempster is Japanese??? ;)

Nomar
12-13-2012, 08:14 PM
Wait............. Dempster is Japanese??? ;)

das raciss

bagwell368
12-13-2012, 08:18 PM
das raciss

I think not, I thought I read his maternal grandmother was a displaced person from Sakhalin Island...












































:rolleyes:

Nomar
12-13-2012, 08:24 PM
I think not, I thought I read his maternal grandmother was a displaced person from Sakhalin Island...


:laugh:

Bo Sox Fan
12-13-2012, 08:46 PM
I wonder if he can imitate 'Mountain Man' from Duck Dynasty as good as his Harry Carey impersonation.

j-bay
12-13-2012, 09:27 PM
I think i know why the Sox ownership signed Dempster. Millar. I'm serious these guys apparently like brothers. It wouldn't surprise me if Millar gave them the seal of approval.

FenwayFaithless
12-13-2012, 09:56 PM
I think i know why the Sox ownership signed Dempster. Millar. I'm serious these guys apparently like brothers. It wouldn't surprise me if Millar gave them the seal of approval.

You mean other than the fact that he'll provide ~200 innings/3.8-42 ERA ball?
Ben's playing it safe this offseason, I can't hate because nothing he has done has been drastic or reactionary. It's a fine deal, he'll provide what we need. Not a good deal, not a bad deal, a fine deal.

j-bay
12-13-2012, 09:56 PM
You mean other than the fact that he'll provide ~200 innings/3.8-42 ERA ball?
Ben's playing it safe this offseason, I can't hate because nothing he has done has been drastic or reactionary. It's a fine deal, he'll provide what we need. Not a good deal, not a bad deal, a fine deal.

i'm not saying its a bad deal

Super.
12-13-2012, 10:01 PM
We've officially waived the white flag. I know what we're doing...trying to play respectable baseball and not get humiliated again. That's it, .500 is a realistic goal.
I don't care at this point.

Oh no! The sky is falling the sky is falling!

Nomar
12-13-2012, 10:27 PM
i'm not saying its a bad deal

i doubt millar has pull like that but they are good friends.

AI
12-14-2012, 03:23 AM
McCarthy or Haren would have perfect fits for the sox. Dumpster is a joke.

Wrong, both are injury risks and what we need is a pitcher who will actually stay healthy and eat innings from the 4/5 spot. Dempster fits that description, and this is coming from a huge Haren fan.

SirHizz
12-14-2012, 03:23 AM
McCarthy or Haren would have perfect fits for the sox. Dumpster is a joke.

Well, to be completely honest...Haren is a much much better pitcher, probably the same goes for McCarthy, but there are several red flags surrounding them both. Our team has been so injury-riddled over the past few years, so we can really use some "certainties".
But yes, you could make the case that even a "good" Dempster is not leading us to the promised land.
Haren could very well put up another 5-6 WAR season...or - like last year - only around 1. But why does it matter? There are no bad 1 year deals in baseball.

JobaRules26
12-14-2012, 03:30 AM
Well, to be completely honest...Haren is a much much better pitcher, probably the same goes for McCarthy, but there are several red flags surrounding them both. Our team has been so injury-riddled over the past few years, so we can really use some "certainties".
But yes, you could make the case that even a "good" Dempster is not leading us to the promised land.
Haren could very well put up another 5-6 WAR season...or - like last year - only around 1. But why does it matter? There are no bad 1 year deals in baseball.

I agree. Haren on a 1 year deal would be nice. Dempster is an innings eater but but 2 years I just don't see it. I really thought Haren would be a Red Sox. Thanks for the feedback. Always a good time in the sox forum.

JobaRules26
12-14-2012, 03:35 AM
Wrong, both are injury risks and what we need is a pitcher who will actually stay healthy and eat innings from the 4/5 spot. Dempster fits that description, and this is coming from a huge Haren fan.

Huge Haren fan as well. I just don't see the sox getting the value they want from Dempster. He had a tough time with his short tenure with Texas which was a small sample but I feels it's equally tough in the al east. I could be wrong but wanted some opinions. Outside of Dempster I like what the sox have done

AI
12-14-2012, 03:42 AM
13 mil for a guy who will give you a 5 era? Loria wouldn't be that stupid.

Small sample size much? Regardless of what his ERA (which is a terrible stat to judge just how valuable a pitcher is, FYI) was in Texas his numbers looked way worse than they should have due to the fact that he was very unlucky. Let's take a look shall we...

August - 4.58 ERA, 65.7 LOB%, 4.30 FIP, 3.94 xFIP
Sept/Oct - 5.68 ERA, 66.8 LOB%, 3.82 FIP, 3.76 xFIP

Compare his LOB% in the time he spent with Texas with the mark he put up for the season (75.7 %). His K/9 actually improved in the AL.

As for what we payed for Dempster, we payed market value on a short-term deal, 2 years, which is a good get. For comparison, Youk got $12M from your beloved NYY and was a complete wreck in 2012.

2012 FG$ - Dempster $15M vs. Youk $5.7M

What were you saying about being stupid?

AI
12-14-2012, 04:07 AM
If you think I'm happy about the Youk signing I find you very funny. With all the money the sox freed up they sign Dempster??? Lol good bud. Ill come back when he has a 6 era

What does the money they freed up have to do with Dempster? I love how I actually use stats, you know something factual, and all you can do is give me a crap opinion.

FWIW, we are still over $40M under the luxury tax, but now that we are talking about money here's some food for thought. You are paying Youkilis and A-Rod a combined $40M in 2012 while Victorino, Napoli and Dempster combined make only $39M. SUCH IS LIFE. :)

Fukudome
12-14-2012, 04:36 AM
Have fun with all those contracts in NY. Teixiera...Granderson...Jeter...Rodriguez...All old, all declining. Have fun buying your way out of that. You troll Dempster getting $13M per, yet look at what NYY has. Good day, sir.

Fukudome
12-14-2012, 04:44 AM
If you don't think Jeter's declining, there's a problem. His decline might be better than a lot of people's prime, but it's still happening.

Super.
12-14-2012, 04:45 AM
lol skankee troll

http://i.imgur.com/fnPkQ.jpg

bagwell368
12-14-2012, 05:52 AM
Stop feeding the troll guys.

ZHawk1123
12-14-2012, 08:52 AM
The AL East isn't quite as terrifying as it used to be. That being said Dempster looks like a 4.30 ERA pitcher to me across 3 years - or about a 102 ERA+. If he pitches ~195 IP x 3, and one of the kids makes it into the rotation by mid '14, look for at least one of: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey to be dealt.

To me, Rubby's intro the bigs will be as a RP, not SP.

Agree with this.

I see Rubby as a set-up man or a closer and Webster in the rotation next season.

mooz
12-14-2012, 08:54 AM
Agree with this.

I see Rubby as a set-up man or a closer and Webster in the rotation next season.

While I do see this as probably the likely scenario, do you guys think that they'll at least try him in the rotation? He's just got such filthy stuff, if he figured it out he could be a dominant starter.

bagwell368
12-14-2012, 10:15 AM
While I do see this as probably the likely scenario, do you guys think that they'll at least try him in the rotation? He's just got such filthy stuff, if he figured it out he could be a dominant starter.

I think somehow that they worry about the load on his arm as a SP, and also his repeatability going pitch after pitch.

If Rubby ends up as a plus 8th set-up guy, and Webster turns out to be a 4.5 SP, for the money and years that we will have them it just makes the deal tip in favor of the Red Sox even more than it already is.

bagwell368
12-16-2012, 09:46 AM
Dempster's last 8 starts w/ Texas last year: 3.24 ERA.

Assuming no more moves, I have Dempster and Lester as the two best SP's

Lackey, Buchholz fighting over #3 and #4 with Lackey likely winning over Buchholz due to more innings pitched.

Doubront/Morales fight over #5, with Webster and/or Rubby getting a shot if those two are ineffective, or the the Sox fall out of the race.

Sadly, that's fairly mediocre. The pen is likely a top #3-6 outfit (AL wide - if Bailey is good towards the top of that, if he sucks at the back end), but the SP's? 6th at best, easily could be #11.

JPBoston
12-16-2012, 11:59 AM
Dempster's last 8 starts w/ Texas last year: 3.24 ERA.

Assuming no more moves, I have Dempster and Lester as the two best SP's

Lackey, Buchholz fighting over #3 and #4 with Lackey likely winning over Buchholz due to more innings pitched.

Doubront/Morales fight over #5, with Webster and/or Rubby getting a shot if those two are ineffective, or the the Sox fall out of the race.

Sadly, that's fairly mediocre. The pen is likely a top #3-6 outfit (AL wide - if Bailey is good towards the top of that, if he sucks at the back end), but the SP's? 6th at best, easily could be #11.

That seems like a legit assumption to me.

My only (admittedly cynical) concern, as it relates to this is... Dempster struggling in his first full season in the AL (East at that), especially with such a light hitting lineup behind him. Lots of high stress innings on an aging body of an already mediocre pitcher. Yech.

Lets hope (pray... beg... ritual sacrifice) that Clay can finally step up as a legit number 2-3 pitcher.

bagwell368
12-16-2012, 01:18 PM
That seems like a legit assumption to me.

My only (admittedly cynical) concern, as it relates to this is... Dempster struggling in his first full season in the AL (East at that), especially with such a light hitting lineup behind him. Lots of high stress innings on an aging body of an already mediocre pitcher. Yech.

Lets hope (pray... beg... ritual sacrifice) that Clay can finally step up as a legit number 2-3 pitcher.

Dempster is aging. I'd say if he's mediocre, he's among the better of the mediocre's. For instance over the past 5 years he's pole axed Sanchez. 9.8 rWAR to 5.6 for Sanchez. Sanchez should remain about the same for the next 3 years, and Dempster will probably regress, but I'd bet money that Dempster will out earn AS per season compared to their price tags - with room to spare.

xnick5757
12-16-2012, 01:58 PM
this is what the rotation looks like now:


1 LHP Jon Lester
2 RHP Ryan Dempster
3 RHP Clay Buchholz
4 LHP Felix Doubront
5 RHP John Lackey


we really need another pitcher, that 2/3/4/5 is rather :puke:

Pittz
12-16-2012, 02:04 PM
For a team that's retooling, that rotation is more than good enough. We have no room to improve. Tough to dump Lackey, have to give Dempster a chance, and Doubront's got the upside and deserves a spot. Lester and Buchholz could be dealt, but their values have both taken a hit and it would be nice for them to rebound before moving them.

What do you propose right now? Trading for a pitcher? It would be counter-productive to give up specs when our focus should be on 2014 at the earliest. Signing someone else? Who? There are no real improvements in FA. Certainly nobody worth simply dumping one of the pitchers currently in our rotation.

MagicBucsSox
12-16-2012, 02:18 PM
this is what the rotation looks like now:




we really need another pitcher, that 2/3/4/5 is rather :puke:

You mean 1/2/3/4/5

xnick5757
12-16-2012, 02:42 PM
For a team that's retooling, that rotation is more than good enough. We have no room to improve. Tough to dump Lackey, have to give Dempster a chance, and Doubront's got the upside and deserves a spot. Lester and Buchholz could be dealt, but their values have both taken a hit and it would be nice for them to rebound before moving them.

What do you propose right now? Trading for a pitcher? It would be counter-productive to give up specs when our focus should be on 2014 at the earliest. Signing someone else? Who? There are no real improvements in FA. Certainly nobody worth simply dumping one of the pitchers currently in our rotation.

I would put lackey in the bullpen as a long relief guy and sign another pitcher on a 1 year deal, a low risk/high reward kinda guy.

Like Roy Oswalt, for example.

JPBoston
12-16-2012, 02:58 PM
Dempster is aging. I'd say if he's mediocre, he's among the better of the mediocre's. For instance over the past 5 years he's pole axed Sanchez. 9.8 rWAR to 5.6 for Sanchez. Sanchez should remain about the same for the next 3 years, and Dempster will probably regress, but I'd bet money that Dempster will out earn AS per season compared to their price tags - with room to spare.

No arguments from me on any of those points... Sanchez was overpaid, no doubt about it.

I was basically venting my depression on the fact that I agree... Lester and Dempster will be our two best pitchers. And that sir, is a depressing realization. ;)

-Lavigne43-
12-16-2012, 04:17 PM
That's not really a fair way to evaluate Sanchez since the first two of those 5 years he barely pitched in the minors. Did he have TJ surgery?

Anyways, if no one's set back or injured, I would be very surprised if Clay wasn't the #2 simply out of loyalty/respect to a veteran member of the team.

The rotation probably will be

Lester
Buchholz
Dempster
Lackey
Doubront (after last year he will get every opportunity)
__
Aceves
DLR
Webster
are the primary emergency spot starts. Morales would have to be stretched out, unless it's a bullpen game.

Lackeyfan41
12-16-2012, 05:05 PM
If everything goes well in the rotation, things could turn out well. It is all there, I just doubt Doubront/Dempster/Lester/Buch all put it together. 2-3 of them will probably have another bad year.

bagwell368
12-16-2012, 06:48 PM
That's not really a fair way to evaluate Sanchez since the first two of those 5 years he barely pitched in the minors. Did he have TJ surgery?

My bad, I looked at Dempster, but just grabbed up the numbers from AS. Over the past 3 years:

AS had a good advantage one year, a small one another, and last year Dempster had an easy win over AS.


Anyways, if no one's set back or injured, I would be very surprised if Clay wasn't the #2 simply out of loyalty/respect to a veteran member of the team.

I don't really care how they start the season. I'm talking about how many innings they pitch and what the value is. Buchholz has one standout outlier season - everything else is meh SP #3 or worse. He seems a good bet to be 4th after Lackey, who was always a horse if nothing else.


Aceves
DLR
Webster
are the primary emergency spot starts. Morales would have to be stretched out, unless it's a bullpen game.

I don't see Aceves having any serious crack at the rotation as a regular, except as an occasional spot start. I think they will condition him as a 2 IP RP. If he behaves and a good trade offer follows wouldn't be surprised to see him gone.

Morales started 9 games last year with 3 QS (24 starts in his career with a 1.82 K/BB ratio).

Aceves had 4 starts with 1 QS (9 starts in his career - and a cruddy 1.09 K/BB ratio).

Aceves OBP against in Fenway was a .839 last year, not as good as Morales at .808.

Both are FA's in 2015. However, Aceves is 38 months older than Morales. I would think that Morales would get a bigger crack at starting then Aceves. As for the kids I see Webster first in line for starting, and DLR in line for the pen for 2013.

PapelbonLester
12-16-2012, 07:34 PM
Good signing. I have no problems with the rotation at this point there was no1 that was an ace that we could have picked up.

Lester
Lackey
Demp
Clay
Doubront

is more then fine to start the season. We'll see how

Webster
Chris Hernandez
RDLR

pan out. Im real excited about or Minor league players. Id rather see what we have with them then overpay for someone who isnt an ACE

Soxfan85
12-19-2012, 03:02 PM
PeteAbe RT @NESN: The @RedSox will introduce new starting pitcher Ryan Dempster today at 2:30 p.m. You can watch that news conference LIVE on

https://twitter.com/PeteAbe

j-bay
12-19-2012, 03:31 PM
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=13103834&c_id=BOS&content_id=25531801

Nomar
12-19-2012, 03:36 PM
Hahah he thanked Chicago instead of Boston by accident. And that old reporter NEEDS to retire.

j-bay
12-19-2012, 03:37 PM
Ryan says if he is able to control your pitches and make good pitches you should be able to pitch against any team.

Soxfan85
12-19-2012, 03:48 PM
Hahah he thanked Chicago instead of Boston by accident. And that old reporter NEEDS to retire.

RD: I learned from the legend Kevin Millar LOL

I knew someone would ask about Napoli LOL. You see these questions you can see BC face saying please dont ask about Napoli

Celtic AL
12-19-2012, 04:33 PM
Hahah he thanked Chicago instead of Boston by accident. And that old reporter NEEDS to retire.

Thats Johnny and he has Lou Gehrig's Disease

Nomar
12-19-2012, 06:20 PM
Thats Johnny and he has Lou Gehrig's Disease

That guy shouldnt be asking questions though it is very hard to understand him. Good for him to keep working doing what he probably loves though.

Celtic AL
12-19-2012, 07:24 PM
That guy shouldnt be asking questions though it is very hard to understand him. Good for him to keep working doing what he probably loves though.

yeah i agree lol i thought he said stupid in one of this Questions

ruckus16969
12-26-2012, 12:53 AM
We've officially waived the white flag. I know what we're doing...trying to play respectable baseball and not get humiliated again. That's it, .500 is a realistic goal.
I don't care at this point.

I would almost rather get humiliated again an get another awesome draft pick. A protected one