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View Full Version : Hollinger's Playoff Odds



Guppyfighter
12-11-2012, 03:32 PM
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

LongIslandIcedZ
12-11-2012, 03:34 PM
Nice, no need to watch the rest of the regular season.

Guppyfighter
12-11-2012, 03:35 PM
Nice, no need to watch the rest of the regular season.

What a clever quip.

RonE Coleman
12-11-2012, 03:37 PM
I don't follow, how can 3 teams be guaranteed to make the playoffs when were only 1/4 done with the regular season.

LongIslandIcedZ
12-11-2012, 03:39 PM
What a clever quip.

Why thank you.

Guppyfighter
12-11-2012, 03:39 PM
I don't follow, how can 3 teams be guaranteed to make the playoffs when were only 1/4 done with the regular season.

It's based on 5,000 random simulations. In every single simulation that was run, all of these teams made the playoffs every single time.

RonE Coleman
12-11-2012, 03:43 PM
It's based on 5,000 random simulations. In every single simulation that was run, all of these teams made the playoffs every single time.

Gotcha! Makes sense

Hawkeye15
12-11-2012, 03:44 PM
read the way he does it, I am fine with it, but not sure I agree fully, in regards to starting it this early in the year.

nickdymez
12-11-2012, 03:44 PM
I hate Hollinger

Johann
12-11-2012, 03:45 PM
So there's still a chance!

mamba24
12-11-2012, 03:47 PM
Those seedings actually seem pretty good haha... Im not a Hollinger fan but I could see the seedings being very close to what is there

Hawkeye15
12-11-2012, 03:48 PM
Its obvious which fan bases hate Hollinger. The ones that have a player(s), that Hollingers profiles don't paint the same picture their homer eyes do.

nickdymez
12-11-2012, 03:50 PM
Its obvious which fan bases hate Hollinger. The ones that have a player(s), that Hollingers profiles don't paint the same picture their homer eyes do.

here we go with the subtle insults from hawkeye.. :facepalm:

dhopisthename
12-11-2012, 03:51 PM
wow the jazz have a better chance at being champs then winning lotto
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM

RipCity32
12-11-2012, 03:51 PM
pistons with a 18% chance of making the playoffs thats the best weve had in years lol.

Hawkeye15
12-11-2012, 03:53 PM
here we go with the subtle insults from hawkeye.. :facepalm:

nah, not just Laker fans...

there are a few fan bases. Hey, I hate certain media guys who trash the Wolves all the time, I am not calling anyone names, just the way it goes being a fan.

nickdymez
12-11-2012, 03:55 PM
nah, not just Laker fans...

there are a few fan bases. Hey, I hate certain media guys who trash the Wolves all the time, I am not calling anyone names, just the way it goes being a fan.

Well let me click the link so I can see where the Lakers are. But judging by your post, i think you assumed i did and said I hate hollinger. Nevermind the fact that I just probably dislike Hollinger period.

Hawkeye15
12-11-2012, 03:59 PM
Well let me click the link so I can see where the Lakers are. But judging by your post, i think you assumed i did and said I hate hollinger. Nevermind the fact that I just probably dislike Hollinger period.

I made a simple observation. There are a few fan bases that do not like him in particular, and the only reason I can think of, is his player ratings, and breakdowns don't rub them the right way, despite him being more accurate then almost any other media outlet when it comes to predicting wins/losses/players.

Laker fans are easy. When they see he has rated LeBron James, and a few others ahead of Kobe, they automatically decide they dislike Hollinger. And as I stated, that is part of being a fan at times, not liking a media guy who you disagree with.

nickdymez
12-11-2012, 04:02 PM
I made a simple observation. There are a few fan bases that do not like him in particular, and the only reason I can think of, is his player ratings, and breakdowns don't rub them the right way, despite him being more accurate then almost any other media outlet when it comes to predicting wins/losses/players.

Laker fans are easy. When they see he has rated LeBron James, and a few others ahead of Kobe, they automatically decide they dislike Hollinger. And as I stated, that is part of being a fan at times, not liking a media guy who you disagree with.

Oh ok

Hawkeye15
12-11-2012, 04:03 PM
Oh ok

by all means, please explain why you don't like Hollinger if you think I am reaching.

Andrew32
12-11-2012, 04:07 PM
Hollinger is one of the few (perhaps the only) guy from ESPN that isn't a blathering idiot.

Faneik
12-11-2012, 04:10 PM
kobe fans aren't going to like this projection

amos1er
12-11-2012, 04:22 PM
Looks like the Knicks are going to the finals. I had them as a 2 seed at the start of the season and was mocked for it.

Only thing I was wrong about was the Lakers who he has as an 8 seed...can't say that I can disagree much anymore. At this point we would be lucky to get that far. :(

iliketurtles24
12-11-2012, 04:22 PM
51% chance!

Rockice_8
12-11-2012, 04:22 PM
Hollinger is one of the few (perhaps the only) guy from ESPN that isn't a blathering idiot.

This ^^

I hated him when he bashed my team and then it turned out he was pretty accurate with his projections. Now I learned that the man just uses numbers and leaves any and all bias out of his articles. Numbers never lie.

Props to Hollinger

amos1er
12-11-2012, 04:25 PM
Hollinger is one of the few (perhaps the only) guy from ESPN that isn't a blathering idiot.

I wouldn't go that far. He is a better statistician than the rest, but I would love to see a comparison of his picks in relation to the other analysts over the years. Something tells me that he is more myth than man.

JiffyMix88
12-11-2012, 04:26 PM
It's based on 5,000 random simulations. In every single simulation that was run, all of these teams made the playoffs every single time.

so your telling me they simulated a scenario where carmelo gets hurt for the rest of the season and the knicks still make it everytime....:rolleyes:

Rockice_8
12-11-2012, 04:26 PM
I wouldn't go that far. He is a better statistician than the rest, but I would love to see a comparison of his picks in relation to the other analysts over the years. Something tells me that he is more myth than man.

I think there was an article about him being the best among all the ESPN guys at predicting records.

Lakers + Giants
12-11-2012, 04:28 PM
Down to 55%. In 2 weeks we will have a 55% chance of getting the worst record in the league. :(

amos1er
12-11-2012, 04:31 PM
This ^^

I hated him when he bashed my team and then it turned out he was pretty accurate with his projections. Now I learned that the man just uses numbers and leaves any and all bias out of his articles. Numbers never lie.

Props to Hollinger

I understand what you are saying, but it is impossible for any human being to leave out bias. It just hasn't happened throughout human history and throughout it many people have used stats to manipulate both data and people. "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain Keep that in mind. Hollinger has some interesting takes on things, but contrary to popular belief, he is not infallible.

bluefire7002
12-11-2012, 04:31 PM
Hahah Lakers pretty much a coin toss to be in the playoffs

amos1er
12-11-2012, 04:31 PM
I think there was an article about him being the best among all the ESPN guys at predicting records.

I would love to see it.

amos1er
12-11-2012, 04:35 PM
I made a simple observation. There are a few fan bases that do not like him in particular, and the only reason I can think of, is his player ratings, and breakdowns don't rub them the right way, despite him being more accurate then almost any other media outlet when it comes to predicting wins/losses/players.

Laker fans are easy. When they see he has rated LeBron James, and a few others ahead of Kobe, they automatically decide they dislike Hollinger. And as I stated, that is part of being a fan at times, not liking a media guy who you disagree with.

I don't dislike Hollinger. I don't even know him. I just don't agree with all his assessments and I do question the method to which he obtains them. There are many criticisms of Hollinger you can find all over the internet. It's not like this guy is 100% proven or anything. I just have a problem with certain fanbases acting like he is some kind of sports deity or something. He is not the Einstein of basketball or anything like that...far from it.

Rockice_8
12-11-2012, 04:37 PM
I would love to see it.

http://deadspin.com/5921063/john-hollinger-had-the-best-nba-preseason-predictions-jon-barrys-were-nearly-the-worst


It's deadspin so I can't vouch for it but this is what I remember seeing.

amos1er
12-11-2012, 04:43 PM
http://deadspin.com/5921063/john-hollinger-had-the-best-nba-preseason-predictions-jon-barrys-were-nearly-the-worst


It's deadspin so I can't vouch for it but this is what I remember seeing.

For sure. Thats only one season though and Chad Ford is basically tied with him. Would have to see a larger sample size to truly see how accurate he is. Also, his playoff predictions have not been to accurate over the last few years. To me Hollinger is more like a modern day Nostradamus, a fun read in terms of future predictions, can be accurate at times, but to be taken with a grain of salt.

Rockice_8
12-11-2012, 04:54 PM
For sure. Thats only one season though and Chad Ford is basically tied with him. Would have to see a larger sample size to truly see how accurate he is. Also, his playoff predictions have not been to accurate over the last few years. To me Hollinger is more like a modern day Nostradamus, a fun read in terms of future predictions, can be accurate at times, but to be taken with a grain of salt.

Nobody is right all the time. He's not my dad or anything so it's ok that you're not a fan. I just feel like he tries to not be so biased. You have guys like Magic "who I loved as a player" is such an LA homer for obvious reasons, Wilbon is so Chi/LA biased, and Screamin Steven A who is NY biased. Most of these guys are just fans and annoying to listen to. The more unbiased the better and Hollinger uses his numbers to make his predictions have as little bias as can be.

I'm sure if the numbers are close he'll then go to his biased opinions to put one team/player over another but I like that he uses his numbers as guidelines.

knicksfan42
12-11-2012, 04:56 PM
I think there was an article about him being the best among all the ESPN guys at predicting records.

Yea he pretty much annihilated the rest of the analysts there in terms of predictions.

amos1er
12-11-2012, 04:59 PM
Yea he pretty much annihilated the rest of the analysts there in terms of predictions.

Chad Ford was tied with him and it was only one year. Even Hollinger himself would agree that we need a larger sample size.

knicksfan42
12-11-2012, 05:02 PM
Chad Ford was tied with him and it was only one year. Even Hollinger himself would agree that we need a larger sample size.



I remember reading a different article that was from ESPN.


Hollinger isn't accurate 100% of the time, but no one is. He is more accurate than just about everyone else out there though.

JLynn943
12-11-2012, 05:02 PM
2.6% chance :win:

Shmontaine
12-11-2012, 05:13 PM
51% chance!

doesn't this strike you as odd?

i mean, 51% means your more likely to make it than not, yet he has Minny out...

seems like 49% to me...

Kashmir13579
12-11-2012, 05:23 PM
Its obvious which fan bases hate Hollinger. The ones that have a player(s), that Hollingers profiles don't paint the same picture their homer eyes do.

here we go with the subtle insults from hawkeye.. :facepalm:he's talking about knick fans too. But its true.

amos1er
12-11-2012, 05:54 PM
I remember reading a different article that was from ESPN.


Hollinger isn't accurate 100% of the time, but no one is. He is more accurate than just about everyone else out there though.

Ugh...Proof???

--23--
12-11-2012, 05:59 PM
By these numbers it will be a Knicks vs Spurs finals match up, with the Spurs winning it all.

knicksfan42
12-11-2012, 06:25 PM
Ugh...Proof???


In addition to the article the other guy posted.
http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/accuracy-of-predictions-for-wins-in-nba-in-2010-11/



That's a link from a previous psd thread: http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=680191


I'm haven't found the ESPN article though.

Guppyfighter
12-11-2012, 06:40 PM
so your telling me they simulated a scenario where carmelo gets hurt for the rest of the season and the knicks still make it everytime....:rolleyes:

No, that's not what that says at all. I don't even know how you drew that conclusion.

Assuming that does say that (It doesn't), do you think the Knicks would miss the playoffs in the East without Carmelo?

bholly
12-11-2012, 07:24 PM
I wouldn't go that far. He is a better statistician than the rest, but I would love to see a comparison of his picks in relation to the other analysts over the years. Something tells me that he is more myth than man.


I would love to see it.


For sure. Thats only one season though and Chad Ford is basically tied with him. Would have to see a larger sample size to truly see how accurate he is. Also, his playoff predictions have not been to accurate over the last few years. To me Hollinger is more like a modern day Nostradamus, a fun read in terms of future predictions, can be accurate at times, but to be taken with a grain of salt.


Chad Ford was tied with him and it was only one year. Even Hollinger himself would agree that we need a larger sample size.


Ugh...Proof???

lolololol, you cannot be serious. It's like you completely repressed the memory of this thread (http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=769362) where we had this exact same argument, and I pointed you to all the evidence. Evidence is here:
http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2012/06/27/nba-2011-2012-revisiting-predictions-for-wins/
http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/accuracy-of-predictions-for-wins-in-nba-in-2010-11/
https://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/more-years-of-data-for-accuracy-of-win-predictions/
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/34476/john-hollinger-beat-vegas

For what it's worth, in that thread you ended up saying this:

I will admit that he is among the best ESPN has to offer and that he is consistently in the top 3 or 4 as you said, but that still is not saying much IMO.

and you ended up eventually giving up on arguing about his regular season predictions and saying that your big problem is that he sucks at post-season series-matchup predictions, and by 'he sucks' you really meant 'he picked against the Lakers a few times'.
Everyone else in the thread concluded that you were being exactly what you were pretending to hate - a huge homer who just hates and discredits a guy whenever he picks for LeBron or against Kobe or the Lakers.

Go back and read it, it's all there.

By the way, in that thread you made it pretty clear that what you were upset about was his Lakers' prediction when you said this:


If you really have so much faith in Hollingers regular season predictions, than why not sig be me that the Lakers won't win more than the 53 games he predicted them too.

They'd have to go 45-16 to get above 53 wins now (ie they'd have to play like a 60 win team, starting today - and they've only had one 60 win season in the last 12, even though they've had 4 championships in that time).
The whole argument he made was that they were going to need 'time to figure everything out', that the backups aren't good enough for the minutes they're going to have to play given the Lakers age/injuries, and that they'll be 'fairly terrifying by playoff time' but won't contend for the West's top seed.

Still want to argue with his prediction?

b@llhog24
12-11-2012, 07:37 PM
lolololol, you cannot be serious. It's like you completely repressed the memory of this thread (http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=769362) where we had this exact same argument, and I pointed you to all the evidence. Evidence is here:
http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2012/06/27/nba-2011-2012-revisiting-predictions-for-wins/
http://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/12/23/accuracy-of-predictions-for-wins-in-nba-in-2010-11/
https://weaksideawareness.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/more-years-of-data-for-accuracy-of-win-predictions/
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/34476/john-hollinger-beat-vegas

For what it's worth, in that thread you ended up saying this:


and you ended up eventually giving up on arguing about his regular season predictions and saying that your big problem is that he sucks at post-season series-matchup predictions, and by 'he sucks' you really meant 'he picked against the Lakers a few times'.
Everyone else in the thread concluded that you were being exactly what you were pretending to hate - a huge homer who just hates and discredits a guy whenever he picks for LeBron or against Kobe or the Lakers.

Go back and read it, it's all there.

By the way, in that thread you made it pretty clear that what you were upset about was his Lakers' prediction when you said this:



They'd have to go 45-16 to get above 53 wins now (ie they'd have to play like a 60 win team, starting today - and they've only had one 60 win season in the last 12, even though they've had 4 championships in that time).
The whole argument he made was that they were going to need 'time to figure everything out', that the backups aren't good enough for the minutes they're going to have to play given the Lakers age/injuries, and that they'll be 'fairly terrifying by playoff time' but won't contend for the West's top seed.

Still want to argue with his prediction?

:burn:

Alayla
12-11-2012, 08:20 PM
...how in gods green earth does he have milwauke making the playoffs over philly? what am i missing here.

NoahH
12-11-2012, 08:25 PM
I;ve never been much of a Hollinger fan myself. I dont think these projections are very accurate. LOL at the worst projected records. Miami going 34-48? Lakers going 25-57? Glad to see San Antonio can go 59-1 on the rest of the season tho lol

nytunnelvision
12-11-2012, 08:50 PM
...how in gods green earth does he have milwauke making the playoffs over philly? what am i missing here.

They have a much better chance of winning their division

bholly
12-11-2012, 09:46 PM
...how in gods green earth does he have milwauke making the playoffs over philly? what am i missing here.

It's based on performance so far and, more importantly, statistical performance. We've won two more games, but have done it against the easiest schedule in the league (lowest SOS in the league at .444 and 13 of 21 at home - tied for 2nd in the league with 5 more home than road games), while they've had the 11th toughest SOS (.510) and with just 9 of 19 at home.

It really isn't that much of a stretch to put Milwaukee's performance about ours so far. We're mediocre against a super creampuff schedule, while they're mediocre against a pretty average one.

bholly
12-11-2012, 09:48 PM
I;ve never been much of a Hollinger fan myself. I dont think these projections are very accurate. LOL at the worst projected records. Miami going 34-48? Lakers going 25-57? Glad to see San Antonio can go 59-1 on the rest of the season tho lol

Projecting from this far out there's always going to be a huge amount of variance. The best/worst are just the extreme values - at this point in the season they're just about meaningless, and I think he'd be the first to admit that.

JiffyMix88
12-12-2012, 09:26 AM
No, that's not what that says at all. I don't even know how you drew that conclusion.

Assuming that does say that (It doesn't), do you think the Knicks would miss the playoffs in the East without Carmelo?

Idk I would say their chance would be around 65% cause they have looked good without Carmelo but to play without him over a course of a season would have them looking like Orlando

Sly Guy
12-12-2012, 12:35 PM
I don't follow, how can 3 teams be guaranteed to make the playoffs when were only 1/4 done with the regular season.

my question too.