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BGeer091
12-04-2012, 01:44 PM
I know that it's the time of year to get caught up in transactions. However the most important thing for us to be successful in 13 is our core.

Our core needs to bounce back. I personally expect them to bounce back. Maybe a huge part of their failures was Bobby V. I know that for me personally when I have a bad boss, I don't give my all. When I have a boss i respect I would do anything for them. I think that factor has to be factored into the equation here.

Lester is still our best pitcher. I know he had a bad season, but I can't see him repeating it.

Buchholz enjoyed his best success under Farrell. He preached keeping the ball down. Let's face it Clay should some pretty impressive stuff down the stretch. I personally don't think that was an aberration. I think it's safe to expect a very good season out of him.

Bard was a mystery. I really don't know what was wrong with him. I wonder if it was that he exhausted his arm early in the year. If he can bounce back and get his fastball back to 98 then he will be a great set up man again.

Another big factor is the development of our younger players. They need to take the right steps this off season.

Middlebrooks was great for us offensively, however defensively played not as good as he can. He needs to work hard this off season and not have a sophomore slump.

Kalish has all this talent, but hasn't lived up to it. He also needs to put in the proper work.

Lavarnway is a very hard worker, and i expect a very good season out of him.

There obviously is more players to talk about.

What do you guys think? Am I the only that believes its up to the guys we've got on our roster now? Or is it that they are in decline/peaked and just aren't good enough.

I'm optimistic about our season next year. I'm not saying we will win the W.S. However if our core players bounce back and the young guys take steps towards their potential then playoffs is not out of the question.

bagwell368
12-04-2012, 02:18 PM
No doubt our core has a good or very good upside. But what are the "Los Vegas" odds?

13 guys?

In 2013, how many will be fairly close either way to their career average? 4 or 5?

Wow many will have career years? 1 or 2? How many will be awful or injured 1 or 2?

How many will have a best or worst 3 career season this year? 2 or 3?

Probability says it will be near the mean. If this team was loaded up with best or near best players like say 2007 (LF, DH, SP, SP, CL, 2B) you could argue that this group is going to be special based on facts in evidence. Outside of DH and 2B I do not see a top 3 player at any other position - maybe Ellsbury in a contract year, and maybe WMB because AROD is again out of the running. How does this team escape being near average.

How does it escape Buchholz not pitching 190 IP again? How about Ortiz's decline? Bailey's what? Injuries. Many of our hitters are very weak against the wrong sort of pitcher - I.E. we have a lot of platoon guys. With the heavy usage of RP in innings 7-9 how does that not make us very vulnerable offensively?

Blind faith and optimism I believe are all that can explain such an attitude at this time.

Pittz
12-04-2012, 04:04 PM
I actually think Lackey will be a pleasant surprise this year, and I hate him.

WMB is going to be a huge disappointment. Expecting him to repeat last season's slash line is probably not wise, and improving upon it is borderline stupid. His OBP is going to blow, I just hope he has the power to make up for it.

The Red Sox are really a gigantic question mark. I'd take their chances at making the playoffs this year over the Orioles last year, but that's not saying much except anything can happen.

BGeer091
12-04-2012, 04:44 PM
No doubt our core has a good or very good upside. But what are the "Los Vegas" odds?

13 guys?

In 2013, how many will be fairly close either way to their career average? 4 or 5?

Wow many will have career years? 1 or 2? How many will be awful or injured 1 or 2?

How many will have a best or worst 3 career season this year? 2 or 3?

Probability says it will be near the mean. If this team was loaded up with best or near best players like say 2007 (LF, DH, SP, SP, CL, 2B) you could argue that this group is going to be special based on facts in evidence. Outside of DH and 2B I do not see a top 3 player at any other position - maybe Ellsbury in a contract year, and maybe WMB because AROD is again out of the running. How does this team escape being near average.

How does it escape Buchholz not pitching 190 IP again? How about Ortiz's decline? Bailey's what? Injuries. Many of our hitters are very weak against the wrong sort of pitcher - I.E. we have a lot of platoon guys. With the heavy usage of RP in innings 7-9 how does that not make us very vulnerable offensively?

Blind faith and optimism I believe are all that can explain such an attitude at this time.

I pretty much agree with this. I wouldn't call it blind faith because we've seen our players play at a very high level. It could be overly optimistic. I just can't imagine the likes of Lester, Buchholz, and Bard under performing like what they did this year.

One thing I did over look and it was a major problem was our at bats. They really weren't quality at bats. Adding the likes of Napoli, Gomes and Ross helps in that regard.

I guess what it boils down to for me, is our core guys must step up next season. If they don't no matter who we get in F.A or via trade is meaningless.

Middlebrooks IMO is going to be almost similar to last year. He's a very hard worker so I can't see him falling off. I could see a lower BA, but I think you will see better power numbers.

StryderSox
12-04-2012, 04:44 PM
I actually think Lackey will be a pleasant surprise this year, and I hate him.

WMB is going to be a huge disappointment. Expecting him to repeat last season's slash line is probably not wise, and improving upon it is borderline stupid. His OBP is going to blow, I just hope he has the power to make up for it.

The Red Sox are really a gigantic question mark. I'd take their chances at making the playoffs this year over the Orioles last year, but that's not saying much except anything can happen.

Personally the only reason I care if Lackey can surprise us next year is that he might be able to raise his value in a potential trade. Realistically with all the clubhouse issues and everything I really doubt he is still here by the time this team is ready to contend again.

I am fully with you on WMB and that is why I am a huge supporter of trading him now while his stock is high. The guy cant play 3B and I would rather cash in on him and look for a legit 1B then try and move him across the diamond. There are lots of Sox fans around that are fully expecting to see the same WMB we did last year and havent come to the realization that his success probably had a lot to do with pitchers being unfamiliar with how to pitch him.

FenwayFaithless
12-04-2012, 04:52 PM
I am fully with you on WMB and that is why I am a huge supporter of trading him now while his stock is high. The guy cant play 3B and I would rather cash in on him and look for a legit 1B then try and move him across the diamond. There are lots of Sox fans around that are fully expecting to see the same WMB we did last year and havent come to the realization that his success probably had a lot to do with pitchers being unfamiliar with how to pitch him.

My huge problem with Will Middebrooks is the fact that he has consistently exhibited poor plate discipline, posting high 20% strikeout rates and sub-10% walk rates throughout the minors. Pitchers will take advantage of that.

bagwell368
12-04-2012, 05:07 PM
Middlebrooks IMO is going to be almost similar to last year. He's a very hard worker so I can't see him falling off. I could see a lower BA, but I think you will see better power numbers.

When the pitchers figure out he'll wave at say high 4 seamers, and sliders in the dirt, he'll see few pitches he can drive.

BGeer091
12-04-2012, 10:51 PM
Middlebrooks IMO is going to be almost similar to last year. He's a very hard worker so I can't see him falling off. I could see a lower BA, but I think you will see better power numbers.

When the pitchers figure out he'll wave at say high 4 seamers, and sliders in the dirt, he'll see few pitches he can drive.

That's true.. I guess I'm optimistic he will work on that.

LasahShow14
12-04-2012, 10:55 PM
If we can stay healthy at the right time, the Sox can do damage and can beat anyone. Let's pray that injuries aren't in abundance in Boston.

elements1985
12-05-2012, 04:21 PM
The Red Sox have no core IMO. If you're sketchy about how this team's most valued players might perform next season -- or, in some cases, every season --- then that's not a core.

This is the little game we play every year: hope our 'core' pulls through and plays to their potential. But all the inconsistency just affirms many players on this team shouldn't be built around -- that a new foundation is needed.

Core players should be money in the bank.

Nomar
12-05-2012, 04:29 PM
The Red Sox have no core IMO. If you're sketchy about how this team's most valued players might perform next season -- or, in some cases, every season --- then that's not a core.

This is the little game we play every year: hope our 'core' pulls through and plays to their potential. But all the inconsistency just affirms many players on this team shouldn't be built around -- that a new foundation is needed.

Core players should be money in the bank.

Agreed. The only player that I'm not willing to give up in the whole organization is Bogaerts. Pedroia is obviously a guy I can't see them trading realistically, but there are scenarios where it could happen.

elements1985
12-05-2012, 07:46 PM
Agreed. The only player that I'm not willing to give up in the whole organization is Bogaerts. Pedroia is obviously a guy I can't see them trading realistically, but there are scenarios where it could happen.

If Cherington is bridging till '14, '15 or maybe '16, why not look to unload Pedroia now?

Nomar
12-05-2012, 07:47 PM
If Cherington is bridging till '14, '15 or maybe '16, why not look to unload Pedroia now?

Me and Bags tried talking about this before, and all hell broke loose in the offseason forum. But yes, it's something to consider if we don't see ourselves competing truly until 2015.

bagwell368
12-05-2012, 09:42 PM
Me and Bags tried talking about this before, and all hell broke loose in the offseason forum. But yes, it's something to consider if we don't see ourselves competing truly until 2015.

Yeah that was fun. Talk about inflexible minds.... then 1/2 of them decide that they would give Lester away for some spec 1/2 of them never even saw - just because he was named #1 spec and had a few writers lick him like a lollipop.

Pathetic.

Nomar
12-05-2012, 09:50 PM
Yeah that was fun. Talk about inflexible minds.... then 1/2 of them decide that they would give Lester away for some spec 1/2 of them never even saw - just because he was named #1 spec and had a few writers lick him like a lollipop.

Pathetic.

Even though I'm big on Myers I agree with the sentiment. Then again I'm sure I've seen a lot more of Myers than those guys.

Tragedy
12-05-2012, 11:41 PM
The Red Sox have no core IMO. If you're sketchy about how this team's most valued players might perform next season -- or, in some cases, every season --- then that's not a core.

This is the little game we play every year: hope our 'core' pulls through and plays to their potential. But all the inconsistency just affirms many players on this team shouldn't be built around -- that a new foundation is needed.

Core players should be money in the bank.
Sadly you're right. We've got a lot of talent, and guys that are the heart of our team. But there is no Manny or Ortiz in his prime. Kind of scary.

bagwell368
12-06-2012, 09:20 AM
Even though I'm big on Myers I agree with the sentiment. Then again I'm sure I've seen a lot more of Myers than those guys.

That's good. I have nothing to say to people that do the spade work and make a call. I do it all the time. But people that fight tooth and nail over a guy they never saw? Heck you could post opinions to the Herald or Globe if that's all you have. But I hope/wish the folks here have a higher standard of proof and thought.

WhiteWesWelker
12-06-2012, 10:48 AM
Sadly you're right. We've got a lot of talent, and guys that are the heart of our team. But there is no Manny or Ortiz in his prime. Kind of scary.

To be fair, Manny and Ortiz in their prime was a once in a lifetime thing.

edit: Nvmind. Missed the OR.

Nomar
12-06-2012, 11:44 AM
That's good. I have nothing to say to people that do the spade work and make a call. I do it all the time. But people that fight tooth and nail over a guy they never saw? Heck you could post opinions to the Herald or Globe if that's all you have. But I hope/wish the folks here have a higher standard of proof and thought.

Now we see it with Josh Hamilton. People have seen him play in like 5 series and know his big name, but neglect the fact that most rangers fans don't even want him back. They're all over the panic button.

bagwell368
12-06-2012, 11:47 AM
Now we see it with Josh Hamilton. People have seen him play in like 5 series and know his big name, but neglect the fact that most rangers fans don't even want him back. They're all over the panic button.

Gahd.... it's true.

I have a kid I work with that says "it's not fair!" like a mantra. He's 16 going on 7. I have to ask him if he's a regular here...