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View Full Version : The curious case of Javale McGee



Chronz
12-02-2012, 02:08 PM
The team obviously values his potential with the contract they gave him, he is obviously a talented individual who can elevate the team if his mind is right. His season has been a sort of mixed bag in every sense, his perception is so conflicted that people within the statistical community range from questioning George Karl's intelligence for not playing him to those who think hes developing him nicely and probably playing him too much. So which is closer to reality?


Individually his productivity is off the chart, if you translate his stats to 36MPG hes basically a 20-11-3BLKS threat, so why does he only play 18MPG? Why doesn't he start over the far less productive Koufas?

Well a look at his +/- numbers reveal that the units that feature him tend to fair very poorly, like a 180 degree difference. This has been consistent with his career numbers outside of that lone playoff appearance.

Skeptics will point out that hes playing with bench players which even on a team as deep as the Nuggs is still a disadvantage. Which can be true, we only have a small amount of minutes from a Javale+Starters unit sample, the early results arent pretty. It seems his presence has stifled the starters game.

Check out the early season returns on his starting teammates

The Javale Effect (Version .01)
Per minute rates followed by ( Team +/- during that span)



Teammate -- Without Javale -- With Javale -- NET
Ty -- 13.9PTS (+3.6) -- 10.8PTS (- 6.1) -- -9.7
Iggy -- 16.7PTS (+3.3) -- 14.3PTS (- 8.4) -- -11.7
Danilo -- 17.8PTS (+5.1) -- 14.6PTS (-10.9) -- -16
Faried -- 15.9PTS (+2.3) -- 13.3PTS (- 4.3) -- -6.6













So heres the conundrum, they have played at their best with Koufas, but they have invested too much money Javale for him to just be a project. Should they go all in and hope it clicks, stay the course and hope his development intertwines with their high hopes for the season, or move him?


I guess the bigger question Im asking is, what do you make of a very productive player with a history of dragging down his teammates efficiency?







Do +/- stats outweigh individual production in certain extreme cases?

NBAfan4life
12-02-2012, 02:43 PM
I think you play with who gives you the best chance to win. That doesn't mean you don't play him more minutes, but you have to make him earn it. Eventually I think it will click with this guy. He is just so physically gifted.

tredigs
12-02-2012, 03:00 PM
You mean the Monta Ellis effect? Tyreke, Monta, Javale. These guys are ball stoppers that flat out do not help their teams win games. Counting stats really don't matter if they're not taken into context. It's about creating a balanced/dynamic offense.

justinnum1
12-02-2012, 03:03 PM
The commentators were talking about this one game and they said he has bad asthma. that plus the high altitude is the main clutprit. but he has a lot of skill, just still very raw.


but yea, asthma.

tp13baby
12-02-2012, 03:38 PM
You mean the Monta Ellis effect? Tyreke, Monta, Javale. These guys are ball stoppers that flat out do not help their teams win games. Counting stats really don't matter if they're not taken into context. It's about creating a balanced/dynamic offense.

But these stats are taken out of context too. Anyone who doesn't watch the Nuggets looks and are like he isn't good. People who watch the Nuggets can tell you. Javale and Miller run the second unit. He rarely plays with Lawson. Karl won't play Faried and McGee together in the second half. Lawson is down in productivity this year. Iggy is about the only one he see's solid minutes with. But everyone besides Nuggets fans don't know this.

tp13baby
12-02-2012, 03:42 PM
Nuggets fans will also agree, the only players playing up to par are Faried, Iggy, and McGee. You also need to look who the starting center is. Koufos. He doesn't score at all. Mcgee Puts up points at least. Ignorant people will come in here and bash McGee but he has been a bright spot this year.

tredigs
12-02-2012, 03:45 PM
But these stats are taken out of context too. Anyone who doesn't watch the Nuggets looks and are like he isn't good. People who watch the Nuggets can tell you. Javale and Miller run the second unit. He rarely plays with Lawson. Karl won't play Faried and McGee together in the second half. Lawson is down in productivity this year. Iggy is about the only one he see's solid minutes with. But everyone besides Nuggets fans don't know this.

Totally, If only there was some magical way where other teams games could be broadcast to our living rooms and non biased fans could also use their judgement on players from around the league... well a kid can dream.

shep33
12-02-2012, 03:50 PM
I was talking about this to some people in the GT the other day. Dude is beasting in the limited mins he's getting. Koufos shouldn't be playing more than McGee by any means. Karl needs to play the kid more.

tp13baby
12-02-2012, 03:52 PM
Totally, If only there was some magical way where other teams games could be broadcast to our living rooms and non biased fans could also use their judgement on players from around the league... well a kid can dream.

Nice sarcastic post.

JEDean89
12-02-2012, 03:54 PM
so Javale has sports asthma not regular asthma meaning that it is induced when he works at a high level. the main culprit here is GK, one of the oldest coaches in the nba, and along with Dantoni, the most stubborn coach in the nba. he has failed the nuggs and is at the point where he is now hindering their growth. GK, despite 28 or so years of coaching, is one of the worst coaches when it comes to inbounding plays. the last 2 times the nuggs have had a game winning chance, both with adequate time remaining, the nuggs have failed to get a shot off. GK ends his game with just about every player out of position. He puts Miller at the 2, Iggy at the 3, Gallo at the 4 and Faried at the 5. GK will likely be fired at the end of the year, teams will foolishly line up to take him. Javale is the best center on this team. He is a great high energy compliment to Faried but still, still, he benches him and shakes his head at him, praising Koufus despite the fact that Koufus has played horribly in big situations. The Nuggets are right now better than they seem, their schedule has been absolutely brutal, with so many road games. Still, with Koufus at his best, they only ever be a 1st round exit but Javale at his best can get them past the 1st. Look at his performance against the lakers last year.

shep33
12-02-2012, 03:59 PM
To me the only way the kid is going to learn is if you play him though. Yeah, he does some stupid **** out there, but he needs the experience, particularly with the starters

Chronz
12-02-2012, 04:17 PM
Here are the minutes if anyone else was interested

With/Without - Minutes
Ty - 177/444
Iggy - 202/398
Danillo - 158/379
Faried - 127/392

tp13baby
12-02-2012, 04:30 PM
Here are the minutes if anyone else was interested

With/Without - Minutes
Ty - 177/444
Iggy - 202/398
Danillo - 158/379
Faried - 127/392

thats what im saying. You can't build a chemistry with players if you don't play with them. McGee should start. He isn't a ballstopper like previously said. That was ignorant. But he needs to play more with starters and that very well may change.

JasonJohnHorn
12-02-2012, 04:32 PM
Intresting situation and use of stats.
I guess there is a question of chemistry here. Karl is a solid coach, but there were very high expectations with this roster and they are currently belowe .500 and have lost very winnable games against; Philly, Orlando, Phoenix Utah and Goldenstate, though they have won against Memphis.

There wins, so far, have generally come against teams who were in the lottery last season. So I would say this team is underachieving.

If what you are doing isn't working, you have to make a change. Is the change as drastic as starting McGee and giving him 36 minutes? Maybe.

It is clear while he is on the court, in the highlights I've seen that he is a high-energy and emotional player, which has it's pros and cons.

Considering how much they are paying him, I would try starting him.

It's hard to judge him based on numbers in Washington, because that team was so bad. And he plays a lot with the bench right now, and when he gets on with the starters, they are perhaps in need of a rest. There are a lot of factors that could work against him when looking at +/-

But, as they say, there is only one way to find out.

tredigs
12-02-2012, 04:41 PM
thats what im saying. You can't build a chemistry with players if you don't play with them. McGee should start. He isn't a ballstopper like previously said. That was ignorant. But he needs to play more with starters and that very well may change.

Generally if a guy averages less than 1 assist a game his entire career it's a good indication he's not exactly in the Gasol mold of post passing and ball movement.

When I think of Javale McGee and his epic basketball awareness, this play always pops up in my head http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/video-javale-mcgee-displays-peerless-court-awareness-053421551.html There's a reason why a desperate/young Wizards franchise were willing to part with one of the most athletically gifted young centers in the league. BBIQ is in the negatives.

Ty_Lawson
12-02-2012, 05:02 PM
It's not McGee that is hurting our team(stats),it's Miller,when he is on the court everything stops...and that's time when McGee is also on the court...can you please put with/without miller stats for those players??and also brewer...those are 2 players that are killing our O...and Karl..he just can't make right lineup and right subs...he is playing Brewer more than JHam....And i guess he won't play Miller now when he is back from DLeague(i could see Jham out of the roster :@)...FIREGK!!

AddiX
12-02-2012, 11:11 PM
Javale has rare talent, rare abilities, sky is the limit.

But he's also a ******.

And that pretty much explains where he is now.

SluggeR
12-02-2012, 11:27 PM
George Karl is wasting this kid's talents.

ChickenSouvlaki
12-03-2012, 12:13 AM
You mean the Monta Ellis effect? Tyreke, Monta, Javale. These guys are ball stoppers that flat out do not help their teams win games. Counting stats really don't matter if they're not taken into context. It's about creating a balanced/dynamic offense.

Javale is not a ball stopper dude. Just because he averages less than 1apg doesnt mean he's a ball stopper. The guy basically only touches the ball if he's catching a lob or blocking a shot.

benzni
12-03-2012, 09:33 AM
sick javale mcgee montage

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5RdCiKL290

Faneik
12-03-2012, 01:27 PM
Javale has rare talent, rare abilities, sky is the limit.

But he's also a ******.

And that pretty much explains where he is now.

disagree 100% with the talent part.

he has great size, mobility, athleticism but he sure isn't talented.

I agree with the ****** part.

SLY WILLIAMS
12-03-2012, 02:47 PM
Some games he can look great and some games he can miss multiple 2 foot layups. I do not view that as George Karl's fault. It may be a consistency/confidence issue.

QueensG_718
12-03-2012, 03:34 PM
I root for javale mcgee. Hes one of my favorite players and he should get alot more playing time.

tp13baby
12-03-2012, 06:31 PM
Generally if a guy averages less than 1 assist a game his entire career it's a good indication he's not exactly in the Gasol mold of post passing and ball movement.

When I think of Javale McGee and his epic basketball awareness, this play always pops up in my head http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/video-javale-mcgee-displays-peerless-court-awareness-053421551.html There's a reason why a desperate/young Wizards franchise were willing to part with one of the most athletically gifted young centers in the league. BBIQ is in the negatives.

He doesn't touch the ball dude. He is playing with reserves that don't score for the most part. Miller? Brewer? J Ham plays limited? Gasol is a good player and a premiere passer. He doesn't post up. He gets his points from hustle plays. His IQisn't the best but Karl hasn't had problems. They got an on the verge allstar in Nene. They wanted to compete.

tp13baby
12-03-2012, 06:33 PM
disagree 100% with the talent part.

he has great size, mobility, athleticism but he sure isn't talented.

I agree with the ****** part.

He has played smart for the most part this year. ****** is a past kinda thing. We have a bunch of players that have potential but aren't that talented. Faried, McGee, Mozzy.

tp13baby
12-03-2012, 06:38 PM
Some games he can look great and some games he can miss multiple 2 foot layups. I do not view that as George Karl's fault. It may be a consistency/confidence issue.

Him being played 18 minutes a game is Karls fault. Seriously someone watch Karls decisions, rotations and lineups in situations. There is a reason most Denver fans want him gone. Literally ask PSD or go to our forums. NO ONE LIKES KARL because of his love for Miller(who is our ballstopper) playing him in key situations, Brewer who plays too much for an energy guy, not playing our best outside shooter Hamilton. Karl just doesn't give our more talented players time to grow. It took Faried until the allstar break to get time. And we were getting almost no production from our big guys and Nene was injured. Come on.