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View Full Version : The curse of the #2 pick



305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:06 AM
MKG
Derrick Williams
Turner
Thabeet
Beasley
Durant
Aldridge
Marvin Williams
Okafor
Darko
Jay Williams


In just the past 10 years only 2 players have panned out. Why is it so hard for NBA scouts to get this right? I think this is embarrasing. Scouts and GM's should be doing a better job.

I will say that MKG needs more time before being judged.

Arch Stanton
11-27-2012, 01:07 AM
Beal
Derrick Williams
Turner
Thabeet
Beasley
Durant
Aldridge
Marvin Williams
Okafor
Darko
Jay Williams


In just the past 10 years only 2 players have panned out. Why is it so hard for NBA scouts to get this right? I think this is embarrasing scouts and GM's should be doing a better job.

Beal was the #3 pick champ!

Lucky.
11-27-2012, 01:08 AM
Beal went #3...

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:08 AM
Beal was the #3 pick champ!

Ur absolutely right. Totally forgot about MKG.

Baller1
11-27-2012, 01:09 AM
Thabeet's on the comeback trail... ;)

Giannis94
11-27-2012, 01:10 AM
Most of those guys are solid role players......

Raps18-19 Champ
11-27-2012, 01:11 AM
They were picked 2nd based on their previous performance (college/HS/international) and their potential level. They aren't psychic.

Giannis94
11-27-2012, 01:12 AM
Thabeet's on the comeback trail... ;)

Either making 13k, 17k or 25k in the D-League. There was an article on another site. look it up if you want....

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:12 AM
Most of those guys are solid role players......

Who? Turner maybe? the rest of the guys are flat out trash.

HeaTxRipZz
11-27-2012, 01:14 AM
Lamarcus isn't trash for damn sure, Turner so far has been a bust for where he was picked at. Beasley has shown he can play but he doesn't keep his mind concentrated on basketball. He's one of those guys who has all then talent and potential in the world but let's it go to waste

topdog
11-27-2012, 01:16 AM
Keep going... 3rd picks, 4th picks, 5th picks. The draft is by no means an exact science.

Baller1
11-27-2012, 01:20 AM
Either making 13k, 17k or 25k in the D-League. There was an article on another site. look it up if you want....

Huh?

I honestly don't know what you mean, not even trying to be a prick.

topdog
11-27-2012, 01:21 AM
2012
Bradley Beal

2011
Enes Kanter

2010
Derrick Favors

2009
James Harden

2008
O.J. Mayo

2007
Al Horford

2006
Adam Morrison

2005
Deron Williams

2004
Ben Gordon

2003
Carmelo Anthony

2002
Mike Dunleavy

2001
Pau Gasol

2000
Darius Miles

topdog
11-27-2012, 01:24 AM
2012
Dion Waiters

2011
Tristan Thompson

2010
Wesley Johnson

2009
Tyreke Evans

2008
Russell Westbrook

2007
Mike Conley

2006
Tyrus Thomas

2005
Chris Paul

2004
Shaun Livingston

2003
Chris Bosh

2002
Drew Gooden

2001
Eddy Curry

2000
Marcus Fizer

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:24 AM
Funny thing is most of these guys had red flags out of college

Beasley - headcase.
Turner - cant shoot, not athletic.
Thabeet - only thing he had going for him was being tall.
Williams - could not even start in college

king4day
11-27-2012, 01:25 AM
Even if it was Beal who was picked 2nd, I wouldn't argue the move. MKG looks like he'll have a solid career. By the end of this season he'll be more effective I think.

Durant, Turner, Aldridge are all really good players.
Beal, it's too early to judge so far.

I'm more curious how Lillard was not praised more by the higher teams in the draft. Seems like it was a no brainer he'd be this good. Hindsight is 20/20 though.

Raps18-19 Champ
11-27-2012, 01:26 AM
Funny thing is most of these guys had red flags out of college

Beasley - headcase.
Turner - cant shoot, not athletic.
Thabeet - only thing he had going for him was being tall.
Williams - could not even start in college

Most of them were top players in college that year.

topdog
11-27-2012, 01:26 AM
Third picks seem to be a fairly good bet to turn out, but fourth picks are pretty bad, so I guess you want to have an odd-numbered pick :confused:

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:26 AM
2012
Bradley Beal

2011
Enes Kanter

2010
Derrick Favors

2009
James Harden

2008
O.J. Mayo

2007
Al Horford

2006
Adam Morrison

2005
Deron Williams

2004
Ben Gordon

2003
Carmelo Anthony

2002
Mike Dunleavy

2001
Pau Gasol

2000
Darius Miles

Stars.

mightybosstone
11-27-2012, 01:27 AM
MKG has actually shown a ton of promise, so I'm not quite sure I understand this thread. Also, it's still way too early to call Derrick Williams a bust and by the sheer fact that Durant and Aldridge were No. 2 picks, it's obvious that great players can and do come from that spot. But overall, I'd say the No. 2 pick is a really tough one to have, because the first pick is usually very obvious, while the second one is kind of a crapshoot.

I am a little surprised that in a thread that talks about failed players at the No. 2 spot in the draft, no one has brought up Sam Bowie.

HeaTxRipZz
11-27-2012, 01:27 AM
Favors isn't a star player but he's solid. I would also say Gordon is solid as well. He's better in a sixth man role being that hired gunner for a team

Arch Stanton
11-27-2012, 01:29 AM
The only way you really win in the NBA is if you get a -1 pick. Unfortunately no draft classes thus far have seen a negative draft pick. Watch out when this happens NBA!

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:29 AM
As far as the fourth pick goes there should be more room for error there.

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:30 AM
Favors isn't a star player but he's solid. I would also say Gordon is solid as well. He's better in a sixth man role being that hired gunner for a team

I think favors will be a star.

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:32 AM
MKG has actually shown a ton of promise, so I'm not quite sure I understand this thread. Also, it's still way too early to call Derrick Williams a bust and by the sheer fact that Durant and Aldridge were No. 2 picks, it's obvious that great players can and do come from that spot. But overall, I'd say the No. 2 pick is a really tough one to have, because the first pick is usually very obvious, while the second one is kind of a crapshoot.

I am a little surprised that in a thread that talks about failed players at the No. 2 spot in the draft, no one has brought up Sam Bowie.

So because MKG has shown promise you dont understand this thread? Im not sure i understand your post as i clearly stated he needs more time before being judged.

Raps18-19 Champ
11-27-2012, 01:33 AM
So who's dupe are you?

Arch Stanton
11-27-2012, 01:33 AM
As far as the fourth pick goes there should be more room for error there.

Thank god! That saves the Cavs from any criticism.

Gagan136
11-27-2012, 01:41 AM
MKG is doing fine 12-7 off 47% shooting is not bad for the first 12 games.

mightybosstone
11-27-2012, 01:45 AM
So because MKG has shown promise you dont understand this thread? Im not sure i understand your post as i clearly stated he needs more time before being judged.

Because MKG has been one of the better rookies this season. Normally, you would create a thread like this when a rookie has been really bad, whereas that hasn't been the case with him at all. In fact, his advanced stats indicate he's already a well above average basketball player (18.8 PER, .155 WS/48).

Also, Durant and Aldridge are perennial All-Stars. One is an MVP candidate and another is a top 15-20 player in the NBA. Also, Okafor, Marvin Williams and Beasley, while clearly not stars, are all decent contributors and occasionally starters. Okafor has even started on playoff teams. And I still think it's too early to call Turner or Derrick Williams busts.

The only guy on these lists I would say are definite busts are Jay Williams, Darko and Thabeet, although I would argue that Beasley is probably a bust, because he had superstar written all over him and possibly could have gone first in that draft.

topdog
11-27-2012, 01:49 AM
As far as the fourth pick goes there should be more room for error there.

Why? Many #2 picks are obligations i.e. "the top 2 players are _____ and ______" meaning whoever the 1st team doesn't pick you must take.

For instance: Beasley, Durant, Turner, Williams, Okafor, ect.

Ebbs
11-27-2012, 01:54 AM
Well I disagree. Jury is still out on Turner, MKG, and Derrick Williams.

Jay would have been good.

Aldridge and Durant are the best players from their years.

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 01:55 AM
Why? Many #2 picks are obligations i.e. "the top 2 players are _____ and ______" meaning whoever the 1st team doesn't pick you must take.

For instance: Beasley, Durant, Turner, Williams, Okafor, ect.

Lol no team is forced to pick ANYONE...

topdog
11-27-2012, 01:59 AM
Lol no team is forced to pick ANYONE...

Put it this way: if you don't pick the second pony in a two-pony race, you open yourself up to a whole lot of criticism from media and anger from fans.

There's nothing saying you shouldn't be held just as accountable at the 4th pick. There have to be at least 4 good players in every draft :eyebrow:

305 till I die
11-27-2012, 02:03 AM
Because MKG has been one of the better rookies this season. Normally, you would create a thread like this when a rookie has been really bad, whereas that hasn't been the case with him at all. In fact, his advanced stats indicate he's already a well above average basketball player (18.8 PER, .155 WS/48).

Also, Durant and Aldridge are perennial All-Stars. One is an MVP candidate and another is a top 15-20 player in the NBA. Also, Okafor, Marvin Williams and Beasley, while clearly not stars, are all decent contributors and occasionally starters. Okafor has even started on playoff teams. And I still think it's too early to call Turner or Derrick Williams busts.

The only guy on these lists I would say are definite busts are Jay Williams, Darko and Thabeet, although I would argue that Beasley is probably a bust, because he had superstar written all over him and possibly could have gone first in that draft.

I actually loved MKG in Kentucky, i think he has alot of potential. The only reason i created the thread was because the idea came to mind, not as a knock on MKG.

Maybe i just wanted to create the thread because i wanted to discuss this with other sports fans.

I can confidently say right now that Okafor, Beasley, or Marvin Williams would not be factors on a contending team. Maybe your right Derrick Williams needs more time but he has not shown anything so far.

NYKNYGNYY
11-27-2012, 02:07 AM
Most of those guys are solid role players......

Yea they are, but a number 2 pick should be a franchise guy or a solid starter

tredigs
11-27-2012, 02:08 AM
Even if it was Beal who was picked 2nd, I wouldn't argue the move. MKG looks like he'll have a solid career. By the end of this season he'll be more effective I think.

Durant, Turner, Aldridge are all really good players.
Beal, it's too early to judge so far.

I'm more curious how Lillard was not praised more by the higher teams in the draft. Seems like it was a no brainer he'd be this good. Hindsight is 20/20 though.


Turner in the same group as L.A. who's in the same group as KD? That's a little off.

KD's a top 2-3 player with top 10 All Time upside.

L.A.'s a top 20 player with perennial All Star upside.

Turner's a top 100 player/current role player with potential All Star upside.

Got a few distinct tiers there. One (Turner) being about 5 tiers below another (KD).

That said - to your point - definitely all solid choices with the #2 pick given their history and upside.

mightybosstone
11-27-2012, 02:15 AM
I can confidently say right now that Okafor, Beasley, or Marvin Williams would not be factors on a contending team.
That depends on your definition of "factor." I think any player who can provide a positive of some sort can be a factor on a contender, whether it's Beasley's occasional scoring outburst, Williams consistent, albeit unspectacular play off the bench or Okafor's rebounding and shot blocking. None of them would be a No. 2 or No. 3 option on contender, but I could see any of them being maybe the No. 5 guy on a contending starting five or a bench player. (Although I would NOT want Beasley on my team, personally.)


Maybe your right Derrick Williams needs more time but he has not shown anything so far.
I think a lot of it might have to do with Minnesota playing him out of position. The guy is a tweener, but I think he's more suited to play the 4 due to a lack of a consistent outside jump shot. But if he hasn't done anything by the end of this season, we can at least begin to have the "bust" conversations, for sure.

JOhnnyTHaJet
11-27-2012, 02:31 AM
Already throwing MKG out as a good prospect?

Huntey
11-27-2012, 09:22 AM
Put it this way: if you don't pick the second pony in a two-pony race, you open yourself up to a whole lot of criticism from media and anger from fans.

There's nothing saying you shouldn't be held just as accountable at the 4th pick. There have to be at least 4 good players in every draft :eyebrow:

This guy talks sense!

BALLER R
11-27-2012, 09:40 AM
Funny thing is most of these guys had red flags out of college

Beasley - headcase.
Turner - cant shoot, not athletic.
Thabeet - only thing he had going for him was being tall.
Williams - could not even start in college

how you can't shoot and not athletic. Usually its one or the other. How many other players are like that?

Aleksandar
11-27-2012, 02:20 PM
3rd picks from that list were good

He115ing
11-27-2012, 05:25 PM
Lamarcus isn't trash for damn sure, Turner so far has been a bust for where he was picked at. Beasley has shown he can play but he doesn't keep his mind concentrated on basketball. He's one of those guys who has all then talent and potential in the world but let's it go to waste

Like Terrance Williams :facepalm:

knicks=love
11-27-2012, 05:31 PM
Lamarcus isn't trash for damn sure, Turner so far has been a bust for where he was picked at. Beasley has shown he can play but he doesn't keep his mind concentrated on basketball. He's one of those guys who has all then talent and potential in the world but let's it go to waste

i guess you didn't realize he was stuck behind iggy on the depth chart which was hurting him from growing in this league. it was a major reason why philly dealt him.


Stars.

derrick favors is not a star in anyone's eyes, except yours..


So who's dupe are you?

:hi5:

RonE Coleman
11-27-2012, 05:33 PM
MKG has played 12 games... who is to say whether he will pan out or not

LongIslandIcedZ
11-27-2012, 05:38 PM
Is MKG not good?

I was under the impression he was playing pretty well.

superior
11-27-2012, 05:39 PM
MKG
Derrick Williams
Turner
Thabeet
Beasley
Durant
Aldridge
Marvin Williams
Okafor
Darko
Jay Williams


In just the past 10 years only 2 players have panned out. Why is it so hard for NBA scouts to get this right? I think this is embarrasing. Scouts and GM's should be doing a better job.

I will say that MKG needs more time before being judged.

MKG --- 13 games into his career, and doing good as any rookie, wtf???
Derrick Williams --- solid player for minny, still alot of upside, wtf???
Turner --- SOLID
Thabeet --- yea he sucks but he was a high risk high reward
Beasley --- SOLID
Durant --- MVP status
Aldridge --- all-star
Marvin Williams --- solid STARTER in utah
Okafor --- SOLID Center, which is hard to come by, def and rebs all day
Darko --- SOLID role player
Jay Williams --- would have been an all-star if not for the crash

your thread sucks....take a hike terdnugget

NYYCowboys
11-27-2012, 05:48 PM
MKG --- 13 games into his career, and doing good as any rookie, wtf???
Derrick Williams --- solid player for minny, still alot of upside, wtf???
Turner --- SOLID
Thabeet --- yea he sucks but he was a high risk high reward
Beasley --- SOLID
Durant --- MVP status
Aldridge --- all-star
Marvin Williams --- solid STARTER in utah
Okafor --- SOLID Center, which is hard to come by, def and rebs all day
Darko --- SOLID role player
Jay Williams --- would have been an all-star if not for the crash

your thread sucks....take a hike terdnugget

The only things solid having to do with Darko were Denver, Miami and Toronto's GM's penises after the Pistons chose him over Melo, Wade and Bosh.

superior
11-27-2012, 05:56 PM
The only things solid having to do with Darko were Denver, Miami and Toronto's GM's penises after the Pistons chose him over Melo, Wade and Bosh.

why does a basketball discussion make you think of solid penis? bruh i swear its some fruitcakes on this website

AsfanSince99
11-27-2012, 06:05 PM
Thabeet scored a career high 13pts the other night, I wouldn't call him a bust just yet.. <insert sarcasm>

NYYCowboys
11-27-2012, 06:11 PM
why does a basketball discussion make you think of solid penis? bruh i swear its some fruitcakes on this website

Oh yeah bruh?

2-ONE-5
11-27-2012, 06:28 PM
MKG --- 13 games into his career, and doing good as any rookie, wtf???
Derrick Williams --- solid player for minny, still alot of upside, wtf???
Turner --- SOLID
Thabeet --- yea he sucks but he was a high risk high reward
Beasley --- SOLID
Durant --- MVP status
Aldridge --- all-star
Marvin Williams --- solid STARTER in utah
Okafor --- SOLID Center, which is hard to come by, def and rebs all day
Darko --- SOLID role player
Jay Williams --- would have been an all-star if not for the crash

your thread sucks....take a hike terdnugget

Derrick Williams has been far from solid and with Love back he is back to the bench I would imagine (?)

Beasley is not solid either. Just a gunner and not a very good one at that either.

Marvin Williams has been just as underwhelming as Williams an Beasley.

Dark is GARBAGE

Ofafor is borderline solid

Alayla
11-27-2012, 06:32 PM
MKG
Derrick Williams
Turner
Thabeet
Beasley
Durant
Aldridge
Marvin Williams
Okafor
Darko
Jay Williams


In just the past 10 years only 2 players have panned out. Why is it so hard for NBA scouts to get this right? I think this is embarrasing. Scouts and GM's should be doing a better job.

I will say that MKG needs more time before being judged.

WAY too soon to give up on the bolded

The underlined are good value for a number 2 pick

Alayla
11-27-2012, 06:37 PM
how you can't shoot and not athletic. Usually its one or the other. How many other players are like that?

Thats Turner in a nutshell trust me its kind of irritating but for a guy that cant jump and cant shoot turner is pretty good.

Synyster89
11-27-2012, 06:52 PM
Turner isnt as unathletic as most people portray him...sures hes not your freak athetic or wont blow by anyone but its takes athleticism to average 7.4 boards and 4.1 assist, also hes scoring 12.9 points per. Is he an all star...no...but hes definately a very useful and productive player for the Sixers.

As soon as I saw MKG on the list I knew this was stupid haha

metsfan99999
11-27-2012, 07:12 PM
I think the important distinction here is when you compare the #1 pick to the #2 there has been an incredible dropoff in terms of production. If we start at the 2002 draft like the original poster did, there is only one outright bust which is Greg Oden. We can say the same things about his ceiling without injury as have been said about Jay Williams, so I'll call that one a wash. Other than that the #1 picks have 3 likely hall of famers (James, Howard, Rose) 2 consistent all star caliber players (Yao and Griffin) 2 solid contributing big men (Bogut and Bargs) and another 3 high ceiling players that are too soon to pass judgement on but have all shown potential (Wall, Irving, Davis).

Now compare that to the number 2 overall pick. I only see 1 likely hall of famer (Durant) 1 consistent all star caliber player (Aldridge), 3 solid contributors (Emeka, Beasley and Turner) 2 decent role players (Marvin Williams and Darko) 1 middle ceiling prospect that has time to improve (Derrick Williams) and 1 player too new to evaluate MKG. Add in the monumental bust Thabeet and the #2 picks look flat out awful.

crewfan13
11-27-2012, 07:18 PM
Its funny, because the nba created this monster for itself. At some point, GMs began valuing potential over production and started drafting raw, athletic specimens with limited or poor college production over guys who produced in college. Because of this, anyone with any athleticism and potential, leaves college after a year or two, giving nba scouts less actual game tape to study. So what do they do? They draft on physical traits, not basketball ability.

And it doesn't even pay for kids to stay in college. Look at someone like Perry Jones. He went in the 20s this year, and had he come out last year, I bet someone would have taken a chance on him in the 10s at the latest. Same with Harrison Barnes. If he would have been allowed to enter the draft straight out of high school, he probably would have been a top 2 or 3 pick instead of falling a bit. The NBA has basically turned its draft into crapshoot unless there's a once in a generation type player like Lebron.

topdog
11-27-2012, 07:23 PM
I think the important distinction here is when you compare the #1 pick to the #2 there has been an incredible dropoff in terms of production. If we start at the 2002 draft like the original poster did, there is only one outright bust which is Greg Oden. We can say the same things about his ceiling without injury as have been said about Jay Williams, so I'll call that one a wash. Other than that the #1 picks have 3 likely hall of famers (James, Howard, Rose) 2 consistent all star caliber players (Yao and Griffin) 2 solid contributing big men (Bogut and Bargs) and another 3 high ceiling players that are too soon to pass judgement on but have all shown potential (Wall, Irving, Davis).

Now compare that to the number 2 overall pick. I only see 1 likely hall of famer (Durant) 1 consistent all star caliber player (Aldridge), 3 solid contributors (Emeka, Beasley and Turner) 2 decent role players (Marvin Williams and Darko) 1 middle ceiling prospect that has time to improve (Derrick Williams) and 1 player too new to evaluate MKG. Add in the monumental bust Thabeet and the #2 picks look flat out awful.

Please, everyone, can we just go ahead and de-bunk any sort of "Michael Beasley's not that bad" talk right now? He's a chucker who kills teams - his own.

The rest I am fine with.

Alayla
11-27-2012, 07:34 PM
Turner isnt as unathletic as most people portray him...sures hes not your freak athetic or wont blow by anyone but its takes athleticism to average 7.4 boards and 4.1 assist, also hes scoring 12.9 points per. Is he an all star...no...but hes definately a very useful and productive player for the Sixers.

As soon as I saw MKG on the list I knew this was stupid haha

False it takes persistence fundamentals positioning awareness and strength.
Rebounding is an effort stat sure being tall or being athletic is helpful but there is so much more too it than that. Thats like saying post scoring is about brute force.

BALLER R
11-27-2012, 07:42 PM
Saying their solid doesn't really cut it because top 3 picks are usually suppose to be the franchise players. Superstars, at least all stars or borderline allstars.

ATX
11-27-2012, 07:44 PM
MKG --- 13 games into his career, and doing good as any rookie, wtf???
Derrick Williams --- solid player for minny, still alot of upside, wtf???
Turner --- SOLID
Thabeet --- yea he sucks but he was a high risk high reward
Beasley --- SOLID
Durant --- MVP status
Aldridge --- all-star
Marvin Williams --- solid STARTER in utah
Okafor --- SOLID Center, which is hard to come by, def and rebs all day
Darko --- SOLID role player
Jay Williams --- would have been an all-star if not for the crash

your thread sucks....take a hike terdnugget

MKG-Too early to tell, and besides Aldridge and Durant (Longhorns I might add!) the rest are only role players really if averaged out, some being better than others of course. I think the OP is a valid discussion topic. #2 picks should be franchise players.



The only things solid having to do with Darko were Denver, Miami and Toronto's GM's penises after the Pistons chose him over Melo, Wade and Bosh.

:laugh2:


why does a basketball discussion make you think of solid penis? bruh i swear its some fruitcakes on this website

It's a joke, calm down with the homophobia.

tredigs
11-27-2012, 09:16 PM
MKG-Too early to tell, and besides Aldridge and Durant (Longhorns I might add!) the rest are only role players really if averaged out, some being better than others of course. I think the OP is a valid discussion topic. #2 picks should be franchise players.






There's no way #2 picks "should" be franchise players. That's just the dream. But special talents like KD (who was indeed expected to be special) don't come along very often. Especially with the way the picks go now with top/upside players leaving 1-2 years into their college career. When you do that you're missing out on both emotional maturity and solid coaching as the man for a world where you'll be a role player and a small fish in a big money-hungry pond.

Wolfman01
11-27-2012, 11:11 PM
MKG
Derrick Williams
Turner
Thabeet
Beasley
Durant
Aldridge
Marvin Williams
Okafor
Darko
Jay Williams


In just the past 10 years only 2 players have panned out. Why is it so hard for NBA scouts to get this right? I think this is embarrasing. Scouts and GM's should be doing a better job.

I will say that MKG needs more time before being judged.

Your joking right? Durant and Aldridge aren't draft bust and Jay Williams was in a motorcyle accident that cut his NBA career short. Before Jay Williams accident he was averaging 20 points a game for the Bulls.

N3TS
11-28-2012, 11:34 AM
MKG
Derrick Williams
Turner
Thabeet
Beasley
Durant
Aldridge
Marvin Williams
Okafor
Darko
Jay Williams


In just the past 10 years only 2 players have panned out. Why is it so hard for NBA scouts to get this right? I think this is embarrasing. Scouts and GM's should be doing a better job.

I will say that MKG needs more time before being judged.

Okafor, MKG, Derrick Williams, Jay Williams, Turner, and Beasley were all the consensus #2 pick during those draft classes, it's easy to scrutinize in hindsight, but Darko and Marvin Williams were definitely surprises for a lot of folks when they were taken much higher than expected.