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xnick5757
11-26-2012, 06:22 PM
source (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8627606/rating-players-contracts-major-league-baseball-part-1)

The Rules


1. Contracts matter. Robinson Cano is a better player than Jason Kipnis. But Cano has a one-year, $15 million club option left on his multi-year deal before he becomes eligible for free agency. Meanwhile, Kipnis isn't even arbitration-eligible yet, and the Indians control his rights through 2017.

2. Age matters. Torii Hunter and Austin Jackson put up fairly similar offensive numbers in 2012. But Hunter is 37 and likely won't be around many more years, while Jackson's just entering his prime.

3. Pretend every team started shopping every player as a trade candidate. Who would attract the biggest return from any one of the other 29 teams? For instance, if we're comparing the trade value of Evan Longoria and Yu Darvish, we're not concerned with the Rangers having an All-Star third baseman of their own in Adrian Beltre, or that the Rays already have a deep starting rotation. What we want to know is, if every team were allowed to bid on Longoria and Darvish, which one would bring back the most from anyone else for the club that's selling?

4. Positional scarcity matters. If a shortstop and first baseman put up comparable numbers, the shortstop would be the more valuable player, since it's much tougher to find a player with the defensive chops to handle short than it is to find one who can man first. That's already reflected in Wins Above Replacement (which you'll see referenced here and there in these rankings), but it bears repeating.

5. Major leaguers only. Baseball teams place great value on top prospects, since they offer the twin virtues of great potential and low price. But going through every level of the minor leagues with every team can make things cloudy if you're not a prospect hound. So we'll stick to players who've appeared in at least one major league game. That means Jurickson Profar and Dylan Bundy are eligible for this list, but Wil Myers and Oscar Taveras (both of whom would be strong top-50 contenders) are not.

6. The list runs in reverse order. If Felix Hernandez is no. 15 on this list, that means the Mariners wouldn't trade him for anyone from 16 to 50, but they'd have to at least consider swapping him for the players ranked 14th or higher.


Honorable Mentions: Jeremy Hellickson, Derek Holland, Trevor Cahill, Mat Latos, Lance Lynn, Jarrod Parker, Matt Harvey, Trevor Bauer, James Shields, Matt Cain, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Gonzalez, Alcides Escobar, Yoenis Cespedes, Adrian Beltre, Todd Frazier, Pablo Sandoval, Craig Kimbrel

The list so far:

50.) Jered Weaver
49.) Wade Miley
48.) Chase Headley
47.) Matt Holliday
46.) Elvis Andrus
45.) Andrelton Simmons
44.) Yadier Molina
43.) Carlos Santana
42.) Salvador Perez
41.) Matt Wieters
40.) Ian Desmond
39.) Desmond Jennings
38.) Justin Upton
37.) Austin Jackson
36.) Adam Jones
35.) Jay Bruce
34.) Alex Gordon
33.) Yu Darvish
32.) Mike Moustakas
31.) Jason Kipnis
30.) Ben Zobrist
29.) Dustin Pedroia
28.) Johnny Cueto
27.) Madison Bumgarner
26.) Matt Moore
25.) Jose Bautista
24.) Starlin Castro
23.) Troy Tulowitzki
22.) Matt Kemp
21.) Brett Lawrie
20.) Dylan Bundy
19.) Manny Machado
18.) Jurickson Profar
17.) Aroldis Chapman
16.) Chris Sale
15.) Felix Hernandez
14.) Clayton Kershaw
13.) Justin Verlander
12.) David Price
11.) Gio Gonzalez
10.) Jason Heyward
9.) Miguel Cabrera
8.) Stephen Strasburg
7.) Giancarlo Stanton
6.) Ryan Braun
5.) Evan Longoria
4.) Buster Posey
3.) Andrew McCutchen
2.) Bryce Harper
1.) Mike Trout


thoughts? agree, disagree?

Jeffy25
11-26-2012, 06:28 PM
I'm more curious to see the entire list before I weigh in.

Jeffy25
11-26-2012, 06:29 PM
and as a Cards fan, I wouldn't think Holliday and Molina deserve to be on this list when you have guys of lower value on the field, but of far less cost.

EaglesJackson10
11-26-2012, 06:58 PM
Trevor Bauer would warrant a much bigger return on the trade market than Miley. That's the first big mistake I see.

Nomar
11-26-2012, 07:00 PM
Still Molinas and Holidays are few and far between.

Moose is pretty high IMO though i do love him.

Twitchy
11-26-2012, 07:06 PM
I wouldn't put Alex Gordon or Adam Jones on this list to be honest, but then I think both are quite overrated.

rickshaw
11-26-2012, 07:26 PM
Trout and Stanton 1/2 I would guess.

Tryptamine
11-26-2012, 07:35 PM
Have to be honest, I'm kind of shocked Rizzo isn't in the top 50. Granted I figured he'd be in the 40-50 range. Moustakas looks to be the only one that's drastically over ranked to me.

Ian.
11-26-2012, 07:39 PM
I wouldn't put Alex Gordon or Adam Jones on this list to be honest, but then I think both are quite overrated.

I agree with Adam Jones but what makes you feel that way about Gordon? Dude is a great defender, has solid on base skills and is an elite gap hitter. He's a perfect 1 or 2 hitter.

beldugo
11-26-2012, 07:52 PM
Miley should be an honorable mention, Kimbrel should be on the list, i think Simmons is too low.

Jeffy25
11-26-2012, 08:11 PM
I would think it would take more to trade for Allen Craig than it would to trade for Matt Holliday today.

jrice9
11-26-2012, 08:32 PM
I would think it would take more to trade for Allen Craig than it would to trade for Matt Holliday today.
Its close but I still think holliday is a much better ball-player and at some point while Craig has youth and cheapness on his side, Holliday isn't overpaid and is one of the best hitters in baseball at a more difficult position than 1B.

Jeffy25
11-26-2012, 08:33 PM
Its close but I still think holliday is a much better ball-player and at some point while Craig has youth and cheapness on his side, Holliday isn't overpaid and is one of the best hitters in baseball at a more difficult position than 1B.

Fully understand.

It's worth pointing out though that Craig only plays first base because left and right field are occupied by veterans and first base was open lol.

He wouldn't be playing first if we had re-signed Pujols and never signed Beltran for example.


Just thought I would add that.

Tryptamine
11-26-2012, 08:34 PM
Its close but I still think holliday is a much better ball-player and at some point while Craig has youth and cheapness on his side, Holliday isn't overpaid and is one of the best hitters in baseball at a more difficult position than 1B.

It's not fair to use Holliday's position when he's an absolute butcher out there.

Jeffy25
11-26-2012, 08:38 PM
It's not fair to use Holliday's position when he's an absolute butcher out there.

This was his first year to not be a positive defensive left fielder, and he is far from a 'butcher'


By UZR, DRS, the eye test, Fielding Bible, etc.

He was slightly negative this year, and has been positive or neutral every year prior to 2012.


Meanwhile, he consistently creates over 100 Runs Created every year and is a heads up base runner. A perennial top 10 MVP candidate (or rather he should be, he is usually barely on the outside looking in though).

keymax
11-26-2012, 08:41 PM
This was his first year to not be a positive defensive left fielder, and he is far from a 'butcher'


By UZR, DRS, the eye test, Fielding Bible, etc.

He was slightly negative this year, and has been positive or neutral every year prior to 2012.


Meanwhile, he consistently creates over 100 Runs Created every year and is a heads up base runner. A perennial top 10 MVP candidate (or rather he should be, he is usually barely on the outside looking in though).


A neutral left fielder is still a butcher ;)

Tryptamine
11-26-2012, 08:43 PM
This was his first year to not be a positive defensive left fielder, and he is far from a 'butcher'


By UZR, DRS, the eye test, Fielding Bible, etc.

He was slightly negative this year, and has been positive or neutral every year prior to 2012.


Meanwhile, he consistently creates over 100 Runs Created every year and is a heads up base runner. A perennial top 10 MVP candidate (or rather he should be, he is usually barely on the outside looking in though).

Those same metrics show Soriano as being a good to great defender in 6 of the last 7 years, yet everyone is convinced that he's absolutely terrible. Outside of that, I never said Holliday can't hit. The guy is fantastic at the plate.

Jeffy25
11-26-2012, 08:45 PM
Those same metrics show Soriano as being a good to great defender in 6 of the last 7 years, yet everyone is convinced that he's absolutely terrible. Outside of that, I never said Holliday can't hit. The guy is fantastic at the plate.

I think Soriano isn't that bad (personally) compared to the rest of the league in left (and I watch a good number of Cubs games).

I hate his little 'hop' he does/did though.

Tryptamine
11-26-2012, 08:51 PM
I think Soriano isn't that bad (personally) compared to the rest of the league in left (and I watch a good number of Cubs games).

I hate his little 'hop' he does/did though.

I was also pretty happy he stopped that hopping nonsense last year. I still can't believe last year was the first time anyone actually took the time to show him how to play the outfield.

jrice9
11-26-2012, 09:11 PM
Isn't Craig fairly bad defensively in the infield?

Tryptamine
11-26-2012, 09:12 PM
Isn't Craig fairly bad defensively in the infield?

I believe that's why he was moved off 2B.

Jeffy25
11-26-2012, 09:47 PM
Isn't Craig fairly bad defensively in the infield?

Not at first, at third and second he was.


He was originally a shortstop, but he needed to be moved to third immediately, and really, he wasn't the best there either.

He really needs to be in left or right, where he is best suited, but both positions are locked by veterans that have first priority basically.

He'll end up being a first basemen likely the rest of his career unless the Cardinals trade him (and that team intends to play him elsewhere).

Twitchy
11-26-2012, 09:53 PM
I agree with Adam Jones but what makes you feel that way about Gordon? Dude is a great defender, has solid on base skills and is an elite gap hitter. He's a perfect 1 or 2 hitter.

Gordon is a good player but he's certainly not a top 50 in baseball player, let alone a top 50 asset. He's an above average hitter who isn't an elite defender, contrary to what UZR says. I just don't see how in the world he could be a +10 defensive LF, let alone +14. Especially next year when Gardner might be in LF, or Trout.

His contract isn't bad, but none of his skills are valued highly in the market. Defence, lots of walks, high average, low home run total. You may consider him valuable, but the market doesn't reward that skillset with a high dollar value.

He's the exact same player as Adam Jones, except he plays a tougher defensive position. I just don't see how you can agree on one and disagree on the other. Either you like both or you hate both.

jej
11-26-2012, 10:10 PM
I wouldn't put Alex Gordon or Adam Jones on this list to be honest, but then I think both are quite overrated.

6 WAR is overrated? If anything he is underrated. Great defense, above average bat (especially if he is closer to 2011 than 2012), and speed. Plus he is signed for 3 years at a reasonable rate.

He would probably take Nick Franklin and one of the Mariners big 3, probably one of the better two. That's two top specs in the league. Pretty valuable.

What makes you say he isn't an elite defender?

Ian.
11-26-2012, 10:42 PM
Gordon is a good player but he's certainly not a top 50 in baseball player, let alone a top 50 asset. He's an above average hitter who isn't an elite defender, contrary to what UZR says. I just don't see how in the world he could be a +10 defensive LF, let alone +14. Especially next year when Gardner might be in LF, or Trout.

His contract isn't bad, but none of his skills are valued highly in the market. Defence, lots of walks, high average, low home run total. You may consider him valuable, but the market doesn't reward that skillset with a high dollar value.

He's the exact same player as Adam Jones, except he plays a tougher defensive position. I just don't see how you can agree on one and disagree on the other. Either you like both or you hate both.

Alex Gordon walks more, has better contact rates and is a much better defender. Adam Jones has cost his team on defense all years but two.

I think they're a lot closer with the bat than on defense. Defense is where Alex Gordon blows Jones out of the water and gains a lot of his value. He's had three seasons of plus-plus defense in the OF.

When I asked you, I wasn't actually inquiring on your opinion of the list. I just wanted to know why you thought of Gordon as overrated. I should have specified.

A lot of the reason I dislike Adam Jones is that he's a poor defender in the OF and has awful plate discipline. Poor plate discipline just really angers me.

Jeffy25
11-26-2012, 10:46 PM
Alex Gordon walks more, has better contact rates and is a much better defender. Adam Jones has cost his team on defense all years but two.

I think they're a lot closer with the bat than on defense. Defense is where Alex Gordon blows Jones out of the water and gains a lot of his value. He's had three seasons of plus-plus defense in the OF.

When I asked you, I wasn't actually inquiring on your opinion of the list. I just wanted to know why you thought of Gordon as overrated. I should have specified.

A lot of the reason I dislike Adam Jones is that he's a poor defender in the OF and has awful plate discipline. Poor plate discipline just really angers me.

But you need to remember that Gordon plays left.

Left vs center is at least 10 runs, and it's probably even more than that in reality.

They are probably closer defensively than you might realize.

Although, Gordon is damn fun to watch in left.

mike_noodles
11-26-2012, 10:50 PM
Gotta imagine that even with Matt Cain's contract he still fetches more in a trade than most of the others listed so far.

jammastershake
11-27-2012, 02:34 AM
Gotta imagine that even with Matt Cain's contract he still fetches more in a trade than most of the others listed so far.

Disagree. Not a great second half pitcher and I wouldn't trust him in a big playoff game. He is overpaid to boot.

lincecum=future
11-27-2012, 02:44 AM
^ can't trust him in a playoff game? In 2010 playoffs Matt Cain didn't allow an earned run. This year he was pretty good as well, don't know what you're talking about

VRP723
11-27-2012, 03:21 AM
They wouldn't trade Wade Miley for Yoenis Cespedes? Bahaha.

Greedy22
11-27-2012, 05:06 AM
Disagree. Not a great second half pitcher and I wouldn't trust him in a big playoff game. He is overpaid to boot.

What?

He gave up 3 ER in 5 2/3 innings against the Reds in Game 5, Pitched 5 2/3 shutout innings in Game 7 against the Cardinals, and then went 7 innings giving up 3 ER in Game 4 of the WS, weren't his best, but he still got the job done and he didn't give up an earned run in 2010 and was our best pitcher in the postseason for 2010.

joehieronymus
11-27-2012, 06:44 AM
alex gordon is one of the best left fielders in the bigs...salvador perez is not only a bargain/steal, but a bonafide future superstar at catcher...alcides escobar is the shortstop jesus on defense with added value at the plate & on the basepaths...& if mike moustakas develops consistency, he'll be an all-star...plus, the arrival of wil myers & (hopefully) the rebound of eric hosmer

all nine starters at age 28 or younger could lead to a potentially legendary offense in kansas city...i echo the author's sentiments & beg for some starting pitching this off-season...& yeah, re-signing zack greinke would be badassery

go royals!

SenorGato
11-27-2012, 10:53 AM
Anyone double take for Wade Miley?

Bravo95
11-27-2012, 11:40 AM
Based on Rule #4, Simmons should be higher. Kimbrel has earned Top 50 status.

Nomar
11-27-2012, 12:57 PM
Anyone double take for Wade Miley?

Yes. If thats true they should trade him now. I think he totally overperformed.

VRP723
11-27-2012, 02:32 PM
Wade Miley and Ian Desmond have NO business being on this list. I don't think Moustakas has earned his spot either tbh. You wouldn't trade Moustakas for Sandoval? I would.

ugafan
11-27-2012, 02:39 PM
If you open the link you see that the players are grouped in categories. It's not an exact science in the least.

keymax
11-27-2012, 02:40 PM
Agreed. Ian Desmond isn't that great and Moustakas so far has been prospect hype and a decent half of a season.

Jeffy25
11-27-2012, 03:00 PM
Wade Miley and Ian Desmond have NO business being on this list. I don't think Moustakas has earned his spot either tbh. You wouldn't trade Moustakas for Sandoval? I would.

I kind of like Desmond :shrug:

ilovesports
11-27-2012, 03:20 PM
here are the rest of them guys:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8627624/rating-players-contracts-major-league-baseball-part-2

VRP723
11-27-2012, 03:22 PM
I get the point of these lists, but most of them try being overly intellectual. I get Robinson Cano is a FA to be, but any general manager would trade Wade Miley for him in a heartbeat.

Jeffy25
11-27-2012, 03:29 PM
Trout and Stanton 1/2 I would guess.

Trout and harper


Stanton was listed 7th


Surprised Posey wasn't 3rd honestly.

keymax
11-27-2012, 03:30 PM
I know these llists are pointless, but which sane persoon ranks Gio Gonzalez over Verlander? That's so bad it's funny.

VRP723
11-27-2012, 03:31 PM
Here you go


Vincent ‏@VRP723
@jonahkeri You don't think the majority of GM's would trade Wade Miley for Robinson Cano, and figure out the money later? I sure do.


Jonah Keri ‏@jonahkeri
@VRP723 Fair point, but the list isn't quite that linear.

So for the point of the exercise, he grouped players and had fun with it. But it's not actually cut and dry. Like Kershaw below Gio Gonzalez? Come on now.

Jeffy25
11-27-2012, 03:32 PM
I love Keri

ilovesports
11-27-2012, 03:33 PM
I personally find some humor in Group 15: The Aces

Without even reading the blurb, how can Verlander and King Felix exist in the same sentence as Gio?? Nothing against him, but Verlander and Felix are the cream of the crop here...

beldugo
11-27-2012, 03:50 PM
The top ten seem very well made IMO, maybe Posey 3 and McCutchen 4 and that's it.

xnick5757
11-27-2012, 05:15 PM
first post updated with complete list

gmanthree15
11-27-2012, 08:01 PM
Not sure I agree with the 2B's being included in this list. IMO there are certain 3B (Wright) not on this list that could be elite, gold-glove caliber defenders at 2B if they weren't needed at the hot-corner.

YoungStuna
11-27-2012, 08:42 PM
This list is BS. There is not one Met on here.

How is Wright not on here? What about Jon Niese? He's under contract until after 2018, is 26 years old, left-handed, and just came off a 3.40 ERA season with solid peripherals. You could make a case for Dickey too. He's old, but knucklers have been known to last a long time and he's a Top 5 pitcher right now.

Also Matt Harvey should definitely be in the Top 50 somewhere. All of his pitches are swing and miss pitches and he averages 94.5 MPH on his fastball. He had a 2.73 ERA in his first 10 starts with 70 SO.

VRP723
11-27-2012, 08:44 PM
This list is BS. There is not one Met on here.

How is Wright not on here? What about Jon Niese? He's under contract until after 2018, is 26 years old, left-handed, and just came off a 3.40 ERA season with solid peripherals. You could make a case for Dickey too. He's old, but knucklers have been known to last a long time and he's a Top 5 pitcher right now.

Also Matt Harvey should definitely be in the Top 50 somewhere. All of his pitches are swing and miss pitches and he averages 94.5 MPH on his fastball. He had a 2.73 ERA in his first 10 starts with 70 SO.

You could make a case 38 year old Dickey is one of the most 50 valuable trade pieces in the game?

No, you couldn't.

YoungStuna
11-27-2012, 08:48 PM
You could make a case 38 year old Dickey is one of the most 50 valuable trade pieces in the game?

No, you couldn't.

He's still a top pitcher, and that has value.

But I'm more upset at the other guys not being on the list.

Wrench
11-27-2012, 09:03 PM
Aroldis Chapman is 17th but Craig Kimbrelnot even ranked?

Ian.
11-27-2012, 09:20 PM
He's still a top pitcher, and that has value.

But I'm more upset at the other guys not being on the list.

That has value, but just because he was a "top pitcher" doesn't mean he's one of the most valuable players. Age is completely relevant to this discussion

Ian.
11-27-2012, 09:22 PM
The one that stood out most to me is Mike Moustakas. I don't personally believe he belongs anywhere near top 50.

ATL#22
11-27-2012, 09:30 PM
I get the point of these lists, but most of them try being overly intellectual. I get Robinson Cano is a FA to be, but any general manager would trade Wade Miley for him in a heartbeat.

Thats where it gets tough because some teams wouldnt have the option to. If you don't have 15 million for Cano then Miley for 5 more years and relatively free now would have more value.

JesusWears24
11-27-2012, 09:38 PM
Where the **** is david wright? U gotta be ****ing joking me!

homie564
11-28-2012, 12:17 AM
Aroldis Chapman is 17th but Craig Kimbrelnot even ranked?

There's still some expectation that Chapman will be a starter, I'd say that's the only reason I can think of :shrug:

Also, The 1-2 are absolutely correct imo.. but I'd have to imagine, not just because of current hype, but Mike Stanton has to be #3 imo. I'd trade more for Stanton than I would for McCutchen.


Posey and Stanton are extremely close value wise, so maybe Stanton is 4 and Posey is in at 3.

Nomar
11-28-2012, 11:47 AM
I think Cespedes should be here too