PDA

View Full Version : Lineup/Rotation Projection Of All 30 Clubs



Pages : [1] 2

quinnjack
10-25-2012, 04:52 PM
I put this together for giggles while stuck on a VERY long flight. Figured I'd post it and see what you guys thought of it.

Boston Red Sox

C: Ryan Lavarnway
1B: Garrett Jones
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Elvis Andrus
3B: Will Middlebrooks
LF: Jerry Sands
CF: Jackie Bradley, Jr.
RF: Cody Ross
DH: David Ortiz

SP1: Jon Lester
SP2: Clay Buchholz
SP3: Anibal Sanchez
SP4: John Lackey
SP5: Felix Doubront

New York Yankees

C: Mike Napoli
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Robinson Cano
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Alex Rodriguez
LF: Brett Gardner
CF: Curtis Granderson
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH: Grady Sizemore

SP1: C.C. Sabathia
SP2: Hiroki Kuroda
SP3: Kyle Lohse
SP4: Phil Hughes
SP5: Andy Pettitte

Tampa Bay Rays

C: Russell Martin
1B: James Loney
2B: Ryan Roberts
SS: Ben Zobrist
3B: Evan Longoria
LF: Alfonso Soriano
CF: Desmond Jennings
RF: Matt Joyce
DH: Travis Hafner

SP1: James Shields
SP2: David Price
SP3: Matt Moore
SP4: Chris Archer
SP5: Alex Cobb

Baltimore Orioles

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Robert Andino
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Manny Machado
LF: Angel Pagan
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Jim Thome/Nolan Reimold

SP1: Wei-Yin Chen
SP2: Jason Hammel
SP3: Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP4: Chris Tillman
SP5: Jake Arrieta

Toronto Blue Jays

C: Travis d'Arnaud
1B: Adam Lind
2B: Mike Aviles
SS: Adeiny Hechavarria
3B: Brett Lawrie
LF: Colby Rasmus
CF: Coco Crisp
RF: Jose Bautista
DH: Edwin Encarnacion

SP1: Brandon Morrow
SP2: Ricky Romero
SP3: Edwin Jackson
SP4: Henderson Alvarez
SP5: Brett Cecil

Chicago White Sox

C: A.J. Pierzynski
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Gordon Beckham
SS: Alexei Ramirez
3B: Placido Polanco
LF: Dayan Viciedo
CF: Alejandro De Aza
RF: Alex Rios
DH: Adam Dunn

SP1: Chris Sale
SP2: Jake Peavy
SP3: Gavin Floyd
SP4: John Danks
SP5: Chris Young

Cleveland Indians

C: Carlos Santana
1B: Matt LaPorta
2B: Jason Kipnis
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera
3B: Lonnie Chisenhall
LF: Ryan Ludwick
CF: Michael Brantley
RF: Shin-Soo Choo
DH: Jonny Gomes

SP1: Dan Haren
SP2: Ubaldo Jimenez
SP3: Justin Masterson
SP4: Roberto Hernandez
SP5: Zach McAllister

Detroit Tigers

C: Alex Avila
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Omar Infante
SS: Jhonny Peralta
3B: Miguel Cabrera
LF: Melky Cabrera
CF: Austin Jackson
RF: Brennan Boesch
DH: Victor Martinez

SP1: Justin Verlander
SP2: Doug Fister
SP3: Max Scherzer
SP4: Ryan Dempster
SP5: Rick Porcello

Minnesota Twins

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Alexi Casilla
SS: Trevor Plouffe
3B: Maicer Izturis
LF: Josh Willingham
CF: Ben Revere
RF: Oswaldo Arcia
DH: Ryan Doumit

SP1: Carl Pavano
SP2: Scott Diamond
SP3: Liam Hendriks
SP4: Jair Jurrjens
SP5: Scott Baker

Kansas City Royals

C: Salvador Perez
1B: Eric Hosmer
2B: Johnny Giavotella
SS: Alcides Escobar
3B: Mike Moustakas
LF: Alex Gordon
CF: Lorenzo Cain
RF: Wil Myers
DH: Billy Butler

SP1: Ervin Santana
SP2: Jeremy Guthrie
SP3: Luke Hochevar
SP4: Bruce Chen
SP5: Jake Odorizzi

Los Angeles Angels

C: Chris Iannetta
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Howie Kendrick
SS: Erick Aybar
3B: Mark Trumbo
LF: Vernon Wells
CF: Mike Trout
RF: Torii Hunter
DH: Kendrys Morales

SP1: Jered Weaver
SP2: Zack Greinke
SP3: C.J. Wilson
SP4: Brandon McCarthy
SP5: Garrett Richards

Texas Rangers

C: J.P. Arencibia
1B: Mike Olt
2B: Ian Kinsler
SS: Jurickson Profar
3B: Adrian Beltre
LF: David Murphy
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
RF: Nelson Cruz
DH: Michael Young

SP1: Yu Darvish
SP2: Josh Johnson
SP3: Matt Harrison
SP4: Derek Holland
SP5: Colby Lewis

Oakland Athletics

C: Derek Norris
1B: Chris Carter
2B: Jemile Weeks
SS: Yunel Escobar
3B: Josh Donaldson
LF: Yoenis Cespedes
CF: Chris Young
RF: Josh Reddick
DH: Seth Smith

SP1: Jarrod Parker
SP2: Tommy Milone
SP3: A.J. Griffin
SP4: Brett Anderson
SP5: Dan Straily

Houston Astros

C: Jason Castro
1B: Brett Wallace
2B: Jose Altuve
SS: Jed Lowrie
3B: Matt Dominguez
LF: J.D. Martinez
CF: Jordan Schafer
RF: Delmon Young
DH: Carlos Pena

SP1: Bud Norris
SP2: Lucas Harrell
SP3: Jordan Lyles
SP4: Dallas Keuchel
SP5: Jarred Cosart

Seattle Mariners

C: Jesus Montero
1B: Justin Smoak
2B: Dustin Ackley
SS: Carlos Triunfel
3B: Kyle Seager
LF: Mike Carp
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Franklin Gutierrez
DH: Kevin Kouzmanoff

SP1: Felix Hernandez
SP2: Shaun Marcum
SP3: Jason Vargas
SP4: Hector Noesi
SP5: Hisashi Iwakuma

Washington Nationals

C: Wilson Ramos
1B: Adam LaRoche
2B: Danny Espinosa
SS: Ian Desmond
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
LF: Michael Morse
CF: Jayson Werth
RF: Bryce Harper

SP1: Stephen Strasburg
SP2: Gio Gonzalez
SP3: Jordan Zimmermann
SP4: Carlos Villanueva
SP5: Ross Detwiler

Atlanta Braves

C: Brian McCann
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Dan Uggla
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Martin Prado
LF: Denard Span
CF: Michael Bourn
RF: Jason Heyward

SP1: Tim Hudson
SP2: Brandon Beachy
SP3: Tommy Hanson
SP4: Kris Medlen
SP5: Paul Maholm

Philadelphia Phillies

C: Carlos Ruiz
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Kevin Youkilis
LF: Darin Ruf
CF: B.J. Upton
RF: Domonic Brown

SP1: Roy Halladay
SP2: Cole Hamels
SP3: Cliff Lee
SP4: Vance Worley
SP5: Joe Saunders

Miami Marlins

C: Rob Brantly
1B: Mitch Moreland
2B: Emilio Bonifacio
SS: Jose Reyes
3B: Zack Cox
LF: Logan Morrison
CF: Kevin Mattison
RF: Giancarlo Stanton

SP1: Mark Buehrle
SP2: Ricky Nolasco
SP3: Martin Perez
SP4: Jacob Turner
SP5: Jonathan Sanchez

New York Mets

C: Josh Thole
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Daniel Murphy
SS: Ruben Tejada
3B: David Wright
LF: Jason Bay
CF: Andres Torres
RF: Lucas Duda

SP1: Johan Santana
SP2: R.A. Dickey
SP3: Matt Harvey
SP4: Jon Niese
SP5: Mike Pelfrey

Cincinnati Reds

C: Devin Mesoraco
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Billy Hamilton
3B: Todd Frazier
LF: Scott Hairston
CF: Drew Stubbs
RF: Jay Bruce

SP1: Johnny Cueto
SP2: Mat Latos
SP3: Homer Bailey
SP4: Bronson Arroyo
SP5: Tony Cingrani

Milwaukee Brewers

C: Jonathan Lucroy
1B: Corey Hart
2B: Rickie Weeks
SS: Jean Segura
3B: Aramis Ramirez
LF: Ryan Braun
CF: Carlos Gomez
RF: Josh Hamilton

SP1: Yovani Gallardo
SP2: Francisco Liriano
SP3: Mike Fiers
SP4: Mark Rogers
SP5: Tyler Thornburg

Chicago Cubs

C: Welington Castillo
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Darwin Barney
SS: Starlin Castro
3B: Josh Vitters
LF: David DeJesus
CF: Brett Jackson
RF: Bryan LaHair

SP1: Matt Garza
SP2: Jeff Samardzija
SP3: Jeff Niemann
SP4: Chris Volstad
SP5: Travis Wood

Pittsburgh Pirates

C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B: Gaby Sanchez
2B: Neil Walker
SS: Clint Barmes
3B: Pedro Alvarez
LF: Starling Marte
CF: Andrew McCutchen
RF: Travis Snider

SP1: A.J. Burnett
SP2: James McDonald
SP3: Wandy Rodriguez
SP4: Carlos Zambrano
SP5: Gerrit Cole

St. Louis Cardinals

C: Yadier Molina
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Daniel Descalso
SS: Rafael Furcal
3B: David Freese
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Carlos Beltran
RF: Allen Craig

SP1: Adam Wainwright
SP2: Chris Carpenter
SP3: Roy Oswalt
SP4: Jake Westbrook
SP5: Lance Lynn

Arizona Diamondbacks

C: Miguel Montero
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Aaron Hill
SS: Cliff Pennington
3B: Ryan Wheeler
LF: Jason Kubel
CF: Adam Eaton
RF: Justin Upton

SP1: Ian Kennedy
SP2: Daniel Hudson
SP3: Trevor Cahill
SP4: Wade Miley
SP5: Trevor Bauer

San Francisco Giants

C: Buster Posey
1B: Brandon Belt
2B: Freddy Sanchez
SS: Marco Scutaro
3B: Pablo Sandoval
LF: Nick Swisher
CF: Gerardo Parra
RF: Hunter Pence

SP1: Matt Cain
SP2: Tim Lincecum
SP3: Madison Bumgarner
SP4: Barry Zito
SP5: Ryan Vogelsong

San Diego Padres

C: Yasmani Gandal
1B: Yonder Alonso
2B: James Darnell
SS: Stephen Drew
3B: Chase Headley
LF: Will Venable
CF: Cameron Maybin
RF: Carlos Quentin

SP1: Edinson Volquez
SP2: Cory Luebke
SP3: Casey Kelly
SP4: Andrew Cashner
SP5: Ivan Nova

Los Angeles Dodgers

C: Tim Federowicz
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Mark Ellis
SS: Dee Gordon
3B: Hanley Ramirez
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: Matt Kemp
RF: Andre Ethier

SP1: Clayton Kershaw
SP2: Chad Billingsley
SP3: Josh Beckett
SP4: Chris Capuano
SP5: Aaron Harang

Colorado Rockies

C: Wilin Rosario
1B: Todd Helton
2B: Kelly Johnson
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
3B: Josh Rutledge
LF: Carlos Gonazlez
CF: Dexter Fowler
RF: Michael Cuddyer

SP1: Jhoulys Chacin
SP2: Drew Pomeranz
SP3: Jeff Francis
SP4: Alex White
SP5: Christian Friedrich

sexicano31
10-25-2012, 04:55 PM
god damn thats way to much work

quinnjack
10-25-2012, 05:00 PM
god damn thats way to much work

When you're flying to Australia you've got to pass the time somehow.

DodgerB24
10-25-2012, 05:01 PM
Dodgers:

C: AJ Ellis
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Mark Ellis
SS: Luis Cruz
3B: Hanley Ramirez
LF: Joc Pederson/Crawford/Castanellos
CF: Matt Kemp
RF: Andre Ethier

SP1: Clayton Kershaw
SP2: Jake Peavey
SP3: Chad Billingsley
SP4: Josh Beckett
SP5: Matt Magill/Ted Lilly/Harang

Kelly Gruber
10-25-2012, 05:03 PM
Blue Jays got worse I see... Well that sucks...

Ares
10-25-2012, 05:03 PM
Giants:

C:Buster Posey
1B: Brandon Belt
2B: Marco Scutaro
SS: Brandon Crawford
3B: Pablo Sandoval
LF: Melky Cabrera
CF: Angel Pagan
RF: Nick Swisher

SP: Matt Cain
SP: Madison Bumgarner
SP: Ryan Vogelsong
SP: Tim Lincecum
SP: Barry Zito

Fly
10-25-2012, 05:04 PM
Braves:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Dan Uggla
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Martin Prado
LF: Nick Swisher
CF: Denard Span
RF: Jason Heyward

SP1: Tim Hudson
SP2: Kris Medlen
SP3: Mike Minor
SP4: Paul Maholm
SP5: Randall Delgado

quinnjack
10-25-2012, 05:06 PM
Dodgers:

C: AJ Ellis
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Mark Ellis
SS: Luis Cruz
3B: Hanley Ramirez
LF: Joc Pederson
CF: Matt Kemp
RF: Andre Ethier

SP1: Clayton Kershaw
SP2: Jake Peavey
SP3: Chad Billingsley
SP4: Josh Beckett
SP5: Matt Magill/Ted Lilly/Harang

Where do you expect Carl Crawford to go? And Joc Pederson is 19 years old, and hasn't played above AA.

Young2Kinsler
10-25-2012, 05:14 PM
If all the Rangers add is JPA and Ellsbury, while losing Hamilton and Andrus, and STILL have Michael Young at DH next year, I will take pics in a fairy costume.

Tkais9009
10-25-2012, 05:21 PM
St. Louis Cardinals

C: Yadier Molina
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Daniel Descalso
SS: Rafael Furcal
3B: David Freese
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Carlos Beltran
RF: Allen Craig

SP1: Adam Wainwright
SP2: Chris Carpenter
SP3: Roy Oswalt
SP4: Jake Westbrook
SP5: Lance Lynn


C - Yadi
1B - Craig
2B - Descalso/Wong/Carpenter
3B - Freese
SS - Furcal
LF - Holliday
CF - Jay
RF - Beltran

SP - Wainwright
SP - Carpenter
SP - Lynn
SP - Miller/Garcia
SP - Westbrook/Garcia

SenorGato
10-25-2012, 05:21 PM
If I could have my way:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Rizzo
2B: Barney
SS: Castro
3B: Wright (far more realistically: Mark Reynolds with a platoon partner)
LF: Soriano
CF: Upton
RF: DeJesus

Garza
Shark
Porcello/Masterson
Liriano
McCarthy/Correia/Wood

As far as this:


C: Welington Castillo
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Darwin Barney
SS: Starlin Castro
3B: Josh Vitters
LF: David DeJesus
CF: Brett Jackson
RF: Bryan LaHair

SP1: Matt Garza
SP2: Jeff Samardzija
SP3: Jeff Niemann
SP4: Chris Volstad
SP5: Travis Wood

Its an abomination. No FA pitchers? Chris Volstad in the 4 spot? Vitters, Jackson, and LaHair ALL starting? Even just handing the catching job to Castillo is too much of a stretch. Give me Wade Davis over Niemann at least...

Somehow, that team might actually be *worse* than the one the Cubs fielded this year.

gocubs2118
10-25-2012, 05:22 PM
That Cubs team is losing 115 games. Both Vitters and Jackson are starting at AAA next year.

DodgerB24
10-25-2012, 05:23 PM
Where do you expect Carl Crawford to go? And Joc Pederson is 19 years old, and hasn't played above AA.

In the case that Crawford isn't ready, Pederson would be the likely fill in. (Excluding Castenallos)

It's a long shot, I know.

quinnjack
10-25-2012, 05:37 PM
If I could have my way:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Rizzo
2B: Barney
SS: Castro
3B: Wright (far more realistically: Mark Reynolds with a platoon partner)
LF: Soriano
CF: Upton
RF: DeJesus

Garza
Shark
Porcello/Masterson
Liriano
McCarthy/Correia/Wood

As far as this:



Its an abomination. No FA pitchers? Chris Volstad in the 4 spot? Vitters, Jackson, and LaHair ALL starting? Even just handing the catching job to Castillo is too much of a stretch. Give me Wade Davis over Niemann at least...

Somehow, that team might actually be *worse* than the one the Cubs fielded this year.

That's pretty optimistic if you ask me. I'm being objective, youre being a fan boy.

Also who the hell is Shark?

Ares
10-25-2012, 05:39 PM
That's pretty optimistic if you ask me. I'm being objective, youre being a fan boy.

Also who the hell is Shark?

Shark is Jeff Samardzija.

Also, there is a ~1% chance that David Wright is the starting 3B for the Cubs next season opener.

Lastly, Porcello is trash.

OldStyleCubbies
10-25-2012, 05:39 PM
Braves:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Dan Uggla
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Martin Prado
LF: Nick Swisher
CF: Denard Span
RF: Jason Heyward

SP1: Tim Hudson
SP2: Kris Medlen
SP3: Mike Minor
SP4: Paul Maholm
SP5: Randall Delgado

Should be a Cub :(.

And not to nitpick but Billy Hamilton is being moved to CF, presumably to take Drew Stubbs spot.

SenorGato
10-25-2012, 05:40 PM
That's pretty optimistic if you ask me. I'm being objective, youre being a fan boy.

Also who the hell is Shark?

In what way is it optimistic?


Cubs president Theo Epstein said Thursday that Josh Vitters and Brett Jackson will open 2013 at Triple-A Iowa.

http://cubbiescrib.com/2012/10/07/josh-vitters-and-brett-jackson-to-start-2013-in-iowa/

Those guys aren't being handed ****.

jej
10-25-2012, 05:42 PM
SS: Carlos Triunfel[/B]
3B: Kyle Seager
LF: Mike Carp
CF: Shane Victorino
RF: Franklin Gutierrez
DH: Kevin Kouzmanoff

SP1: Felix Hernandez
SP2: Shaun Marcum
SP3: Jason Vargas
SP4: Hector Noesi
SP5: Hisashi Iwakuma


Stopped reading here.

All of these are wrong. Highly doubt we sign an overrated CF, we already have one.
And where is Saunders? He was our best hitter last year and you leave him out for Smoak.

Bravo95
10-25-2012, 05:52 PM
Braves:

C: Brian McCann
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Dan UGH-la
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Martin Prado
LF: Justin Upton (position/pitching prospects to ARZ)
CF: Denard Span (Hanson + pitching prospects to MIN)
RF: Jason Heyward

SP: Zach Greinke
SP: Kris Medlen
SP: Tim Hudson
SP: Mike Minor
SP: Paul Maholm

*Beachy likely out until the All-Star break or later

Jeffy25
10-25-2012, 05:54 PM
I'm sure everyone else is just critiquing their teams, and I appreciate the time you put into this but



C: Yadier Molina
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Daniel Descalso
SS: Rafael Furcal
3B: David Freese
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Carlos Beltran
RF: Allen Craig

SP1: Adam Wainwright
SP2: Chris Carpenter
SP3: Roy Oswalt
SP4: Jake Westbrook
SP5: Lance Lynn


Jon Jay is the Cardinals Centerfielder, he isn't going anywhere, and Beltran can't play center any longer.

Which means Craig is stuck at first base, and Jay is entrenched in center.

Matt Adams is tradeable, but Craig is our first basemen.

Matt Carpenter will likely be our OD second basemen, and Furcal is a question mark at short, so Kozma, Furcal, and Descalso will all get time, unless they sign someone like a Stephen Drew, Jason Bartlett type for one season.


As for the rotation.

Oswalt isn't going to be a Cardinal, and they won't be signing any free agents, although it's not a bad idea.

Shelby Miller will be in the OD rotation barring injury or a setback, and Jaime as you apparently noticed, will be out as of OD but should be back soon after.


Again, I appreciate the time you put into this, you did a good job. But I can pretty safely say what will happen in St. Louis this off-season.

Jeffy25
10-25-2012, 05:54 PM
Braves:

C: Brian McCann
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Dan UGH-la
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Martin Prado
LF: Justin Upton (pitching/position prospects to ARZ)
CF: Denard Span (Hanson + pitching prospects to MIN)
RF: Jason Heyward

SP: Zach Greinke
SP: Kris Medlen
SP: Tim Hudson
SP: Mike Minor
SP: Paul Maholm

*Beachy likely out until the All-Star break or later



You are getting Greinke, Span, and Upton in one off-season?

Jeffy25
10-25-2012, 05:57 PM
If I could have my way:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Rizzo
2B: Barney
SS: Castro
3B: Wright (far more realistically: Mark Reynolds with a platoon partner)
LF: Soriano
CF: Upton
RF: DeJesus

Garza
Shark
Porcello/Masterson
Liriano
McCarthy/Correia/Wood

As far as this:



Its an abomination. No FA pitchers? Chris Volstad in the 4 spot? Vitters, Jackson, and LaHair ALL starting? Even just handing the catching job to Castillo is too much of a stretch. Give me Wade Davis over Niemann at least...

Somehow, that team might actually be *worse* than the one the Cubs fielded this year.

What on earth makes you think the Cubs are going to make so many moves?

It's likely going to be a quiet off-season for the Cubs.

Jeffy25
10-25-2012, 05:58 PM
That's pretty optimistic if you ask me. I'm being objective, youre being a fan boy.

Also who the hell is Shark?

Jeff Samardijziqaasdasajio

I can never spell the last part of his last name.

SenorGato
10-25-2012, 05:59 PM
What on earth makes you think the Cubs are going to make so many moves?

It's likely going to be a quiet off-season for the Cubs.

~80 million in freed up payroll just in the past two years and a FO that has stated multiple times that they will be spending at least some of that. Epstein just said the other day that they absolutely need to bring in at least two starting pitchers as well as an OFer.

It's really easy to say that it will be a quiet offseason for the Cubs, which I believe is 90% of why that gets parroted around. I'll believe this FO actually plans to sit on their hands until prospects give the OK when I see it.

Oldmantrash
10-25-2012, 06:22 PM
New York Mets

C: Josh Thole
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Daniel Murphy
SS: Ruben Tejada
3B: David Wright
LF: Jason Bay
CF: Andres Torres
RF: Lucas Duda

SP1: Johan Santana
SP2: R.A. Dickey
SP3: Matt Harvey
SP4: Jon Niese
SP5: Mike Pelfrey

This is sad, but could be true

LASportsFan1996
10-25-2012, 06:40 PM
Dodgers:

C: AJ Ellis
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Mark Ellis
SS: Hanley Ramirez
3B: Luis Cruz
LF: Carl Crawford
CF: Matt Kemp
RF: Andre Ethier

SP1: Clayton Kershaw
SP2: Greinke/Peavy
SP3: Josh Beckett
SP4: Chad Billingsley :pray:
SP5: Aaron Harang

Green_Monster
10-25-2012, 07:30 PM
If all the Rangers add is JPA and Ellsbury, while losing Hamilton and Andrus, and STILL have Michael Young at DH next year, I will take pics in a fairy costume.

Also, they add Josh Johnson.

Nomar
10-25-2012, 07:43 PM
Also, they add Josh Johnson.

And theres several FA pitching options if they didnt want to trade for Johnson. Peavy, Haren, ect.

I dont think its fair to say your "losing Hamilton" when youre the one letting him walk. You lose a guy in FA, but you have an opportunity to gain others through the same process. Thats got nothing to to with if a trade is good or bad for the team.

quinnjack
10-25-2012, 07:50 PM
I'm sure everyone else is just critiquing their teams, and I appreciate the time you put into this but



C: Yadier Molina
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Daniel Descalso
SS: Rafael Furcal
3B: David Freese
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Carlos Beltran
RF: Allen Craig

SP1: Adam Wainwright
SP2: Chris Carpenter
SP3: Roy Oswalt
SP4: Jake Westbrook
SP5: Lance Lynn


Jon Jay is the Cardinals Centerfielder, he isn't going anywhere, and Beltran can't play center any longer.

Which means Craig is stuck at first base, and Jay is entrenched in center.

Matt Adams is tradeable, but Craig is our first basemen.

Matt Carpenter will likely be our OD second basemen, and Furcal is a question mark at short, so Kozma, Furcal, and Descalso will all get time, unless they sign someone like a Stephen Drew, Jason Bartlett type for one season.


As for the rotation.

Oswalt isn't going to be a Cardinal, and they won't be signing any free agents, although it's not a bad idea.

Shelby Miller will be in the OD rotation barring injury or a setback, and Jaime as you apparently noticed, will be out as of OD but should be back soon after.


Again, I appreciate the time you put into this, you did a good job. But I can pretty safely say what will happen in St. Louis this off-season.

It's all good, man. By all means give critiques/opinions, that's the fun part, the discussion.

I did this without the Internet, I knew I'd leave a player or two out.

quinnjack
10-25-2012, 07:51 PM
Stopped reading here.

All of these are wrong. Highly doubt we sign an overrated CF, we already have one.
And where is Saunders? He was our best hitter last year and you leave him out for Smoak.

Forgot about Saunders, my bad.

SB75
10-25-2012, 07:59 PM
Quinnjac...... Why would we spend big money re-signing Bourn and then trade for Span, on a team that's already left handed hitting heavy?

Just doesn't make sense for us.

MetsFanatic19
10-25-2012, 08:01 PM
LOL the Mets stayed exactly the same.

SB75
10-25-2012, 08:03 PM
Braves:

C: Brian McCann
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Dan UGH-la
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Martin Prado
LF: Justin Upton (position/pitching prospects to ARZ)
CF: Denard Span (Hanson + pitching prospects to MIN)
RF: Jason Heyward

SP: Zach Greinke
SP: Kris Medlen
SP: Tim Hudson
SP: Mike Minor
SP: Paul Maholm

*Beachy likely out until the All-Star break or later

I like.... I like alot!...... However if we trade for Justin Upton, I think the push will come to sign BJ and pair them around Jason and Freddie for the next 3 seasons. Wouldn't mind your plan at all and I do think the Braves will part with some pitching this off-season. I also think we will at least offer Greinke a deal. But if your plan goes through, I will be a happy Braves fan.

GA16Angels
10-25-2012, 08:12 PM
This is what I foresee for the Angels:

C- Chris Iannetta
1B- Albert Pujols
2B- Howie Kendrick
3B- Eric Chavez/Alberto Callaspo
SS- Erick Aybar
LF- Mike Trout
CF- Peter Bourjos
RF- Mark Trumbo
DH- Kendrys Morales

SP:
1. Jered Weaver
2. Zack Greinke
3. Jake Peavy
4. CJ Wilson
5. Garret Richards

Driven
10-25-2012, 08:12 PM
Baltimore Orioles

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Robert Andino
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Manny Machado
LF: Angel Pagan
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Jim Thome/Nolan Reimold

SP1: Wei-Yin Chen
SP2: Jason Hammel
SP3: Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP4: Chris Tillman
SP5: Jake Arrieta

Chris Davis will be the full-time DH and spot starter in the field when needed. I doubt they don't bring Reynolds back, and I doubt Andino is the team's starting second basemen. Even if they don't make any changes, Flaherty would be their starting 2B, and don't forget about Brian Roberts who will try to play once again and is due $10 million.

Thome could come back, but in a pinch hitting and spot DH role. Reimold could certainly be a starter, but if he is, he will be the LF. I expect them to bring McLouth back.

There's no reason to think they'd go after Dice-K, and there's no reason to think that Miguel Gonzalez will not be in the rotation.

Arrieta's days are numbered. Matusz has a better chance of starting the year in the rotation.

I expect Hardy is going to be on the trade block this summer, as well.

Sick Of It All
10-25-2012, 08:27 PM
The Mets will be a bit different.

C-??? Maybe they re-sign Shoppach or bring back Thole, but it sounds like their will be changes.
1b- Ike Davis
2b- Daniel Murphy
3b- David Wright
SS- Ruben Tejada
LF- Bay, but likely he will be a part time guy, so him and Duda in LF
CF- Nieuwenhuis
RF- ???????

P- Santana
P- Dickey
P- Niese
P- Gee
P- Harvey

Vintage
10-25-2012, 08:31 PM
I don't see why the Yankees an aging team would add Napoli and Sizemore, two very boom or bust injury prone players and why the Mets would make not one legitimate move at all.

Regardless, this is awesome and you deserve credit for doing this.

tp13baby
10-25-2012, 10:15 PM
C: Wilin Rosario
1b: Michael Cuddyer
2b: Josh Rutledge
3b: Pacheco
SS: Tulo
LF: Cargo
CF: Dexter Fowler
RF: Tyler Colvin

Start Pitch
Chacin
Pomeranz
De La Rosa
(Free Agent)
Christian Friedrich

YankeeFan16
10-25-2012, 11:41 PM
New York Yankees

1. Derek Jeter- Ss
2. Ichiro Suzuki- LF
3. Robinson Cano- 2B
4. Mark Texeira- 1B
5. Justin Upton- RF
6. Alex Rodriguez- DH
7. Brian McCann/Russell Martin- C
8. Anthony Rendon- 3B
9. Brett Gardner- CF

SP1: C.C. Sabathia
SP2: Hiroki Kuroda
SP3: Andy Pettite
SP4: Haren/Lohse/peavy/or Hughes if not traded.
SP5: Ross Detweiler

How did Detweiler, Rendon, Mccann, & Upton get on the Yankees you might ask? Here's how vv

Arizona Get: Chase Headley, Eduardo Nunez, & Adam Warren

Padres Get: Chris Johnson, Ivan Nova, & a pitching prospect from Dbacks

Yankees: Justin Upton and 1 mid tier prospects from both Dbacks and Padres.


Nationals Get: Granderson, Chamberlain, Betances, & Phelps

Yankees Get: Anthony Rendon, Tyler Moore and Ross Detweiler

Braves Decline option on McCann and yanks pick him up on two year deal. If not Russell Martin comes back.

Jeffy25
10-26-2012, 12:08 AM
So, Upton, McCann, Lohse, Detwiller, Rendon, Moore?


Are you just saying what you wish could happen?

Because none of that is happening

Jeffy25
10-26-2012, 12:14 AM
~80 million in freed up payroll just in the past two years and a FO that has stated multiple times that they will be spending at least some of that. Epstein just said the other day that they absolutely need to bring in at least two starting pitchers as well as an OFer.

It's really easy to say that it will be a quiet offseason for the Cubs, which I believe is 90% of why that gets parroted around. I'll believe this FO actually plans to sit on their hands until prospects give the OK when I see it.

The Cubs are going to be very quiet this off-season, they are rebuilding this organization from scratch and the focus is on stop gaps and prospects.


The Cubs payroll will remain low until guys like Rizzo are getting closer to free agency.


When Epstein said that, it's going to be guys like Paul Maholm (not necessarily him, but that kind of player again), maybe Bedard, and an outfielder like Angel Pagan or someone like that.

They won't be spending much of that money this off-season.


No offense, but it seems like Cubs fans do this every season. And right now it's beyond clear how important it is for the team to rebuild and save their resources for the future. I don't see them spending but maybe 15-20 in free agency for 2013, and they have several positions to fill. I bet they don't pay any individual more than 5 mil for 2013 that is an incoming free agent.

SenorGato
10-26-2012, 02:22 AM
The Cubs are going to be very quiet this off-season, they are rebuilding this organization from scratch and the focus is on stop gaps and prospects.

Yes, the Cubs are looking for prospects and stop gaps. Know what else they're looking for? Talent. Long term talent, and not the David DeJesuses of the world.


The Cubs payroll will remain low until guys like Rizzo are getting closer to free agency.


O rly? Why?


When Epstein said that, it's going to be guys like Paul Maholm (not necessarily him, but that kind of player again), maybe Bedard, and an outfielder like Angel Pagan or someone like that.


Yeah, and Francisco Liriano is a guy who's put up an ERA over 5 in his last 280 innings spread over 2 seasons. This isn't a big money superstar here.

Angel Pagan >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the current version of Brett Jackson, and even then I fully expect they'll be in on Upton.


They won't be spending much of that money this off-season.

Yeah, about as effective as when you opened with something similar. Reiterating it doesn't make it any more true.


No offense, but it seems like Cubs fans do this every season. And right now it's beyond clear how important it is for the team to rebuild and save their resources for the future. I don't see them spending but maybe 15-20 in free agency for 2013, and they have several positions to fill. I bet they don't pay any individual more than 5 mil for 2013 that is an incoming free agent

Its also beyond clear that they've done alot of saving over the past 2 years - some 80 million dollars worth. It's beyond clear they need talent. It's beyond clear there's no huge money FA on the market except for Hamilton and Greinke, neither of which I expect the Cubs to be in on. Its beyond clear that sitting around waiting for prospects is a pretty stupid way to build a team. It's beyond clear that Chicago is one of the top three biggest markets in this sport especially, and the Cubs do not have to operate and rebuild like the Royals, Pirates, and Rays waiting for their prospects to mature after making a decade's worth of top 5 picks. Its beyond clear there's a HUGE difference between not spending on Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, both who the Cubs looked at last year, and making 28 year old BJ Upton your FA headliner for an offseason. Its beyond clear that "Cubs fans seem to do this every year" is just a debate tactic, like repeating a non-truth as truth. Its beyond clear that Erik Bedard is not going to headline anyone's FA class (the guy hasn't thrown over 130 innings in 5 years) but sure he's entirely possible (though Kevin Correia is far more likely). It's beyond clear that there's zero chance BJ Upton for 4-5 years, Reynolds for a year maybe two, Martin/Shoppach/Laird/Someone for a year maybe two, Liriano for a year maybe two, and whoever is not going to come close to destroying the Cubs' ability to make further moves in future season. It's beyond clear that the Cubs have secured the one player, Castro, that they needed to lock up and now have to work on surrounding him with more quality talent that isn't 18 and 4 years away. It's beyond clear that in under the new CBA a team locking up good veterans to 1-2 year deals is putting themselves in very good position to make deadline deals. It's beyond clear that "hey, come break the longest championship drought in sports for one of the more well liked loser franchises in sports in one of the biggest cities for American sport" is a pretty damn good sales pitch for FAs, particularly when this franchise is entirely capable of paying a little extra for someone they reeeeeeally want (and there's no magic date set for when that is allowed to happen).

This future isn't going to magically pop up one year because prospects. There's no way this FO is going to be so stupid to pin all their hopes on prospects as guys like Castro, Rizzo, Barney, Samardzija, and Garza blow through their 20's.

And who in the heeeeeeeeeelll is signing for 5 million dollars as a FA? You already threw out Angel Pagan. What is his incentive to take 5 million? He 4.8 putting up 4 bWAR this year and has put up 10 bWAR in his past 3 seasons. He waits 6 years to hit FA for a 200K raise? Give me a break....Paul Maholm got more than 5 million, and he's the benchmark for all Hoyer signings amongst you and every Cubs fan who actually believes they plan to sit and collect prospects until the prospects say its OK.

Some actual quotes from the FO:


“We will have financial flexibility. We’ve been diligent to make sure we do have flexibility and we’re efficient going forward. We’ll obviously be active in the free agent market. That’s a big part of our research and work now is evaluating free agents. We have some money to spend and we’ll focus on it heavily.”


“We certainly have to be aggressive with starting pitching over the Winter. I think that hardly makes us unique among major league teams. We will certainly have competition to find starting pitching but we certainly will need to bolster our rotation …. Starting pitching we’ve had some good performances, but we need to add depth over the Winter. We obviously traded Paul and Ryan and have to replace those guys moving forward.”


Free agency is definitely a nice way to add talent to an organization without giving up talent...


"It's just a matter of where we're going to spend that money and who is available, and whether it's obvious free agents we know will be free agents, or non-tenders and all that kind of stuff," Sveum said. "Right now it's kind of hard to say. You just don't know who will be available. But yeah, we'll spend money somewhere."


"There might be some tough things we have to tell (fans) along the way, and there might be another trading deadline in our future where we trade away 40 percent of a really good rotation," Epstein said.

Right now the Cubs have 40% of a really good rotation in Garza and Samardzija. It's finding three more that will actually make it possible to do some selling and add those precious prospects who will one day deliver us.


First and foremost, Epstein confirmed that the Cubs are looking to add at least two starting pitchers.

And in the outfield, the Cubs are focused on adding either a center fielder or a right fielder and depending on what they land, David DeJesus will take over the remaining position.

The Cubs aren’t too keen on looking for a long-term option at third base right now.


I know I know...Mark Reynolds isn't my idea of a long term 3B? Ca-razy.

The Cubs are faaaaaaaaaaar more likely to be the Orioles of next year than they will be the Astros or the 2012 Cubs again. This is the same franchise who's been heavily rumored to be willing to pay as much as 90% of Soriano's remaining contract just to get back real talent. This rebuild isn't about hoarding money for One Day when the the magical prospects of The Future allow it. You don't magic a rebuild with pixie dust and hope. You get talent with the resources available, and the Cubs are loaded with resources (plenty of money to spend, a deep farm system probably a year away from ranking in the top 5-6 in the game). That isn't even a big spending offseason.

Just a reminder: This is the same FO that turned Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson into a top 50 prospect/3 time top 100 prospect power arm. I'm pretty sure they can find someone willing to give up something nice for a low commit starting C with playoff experience, a 35 HR 3B, or maybe a revitalized power left handed starter (or whoever they trade).

Jeffy25
10-26-2012, 03:11 AM
Yeah, repeating it doesn't make it more true. Yes, the Cubs are looking for prospects and stop gaps. Know what else they're looking for? Talent. Long term talent, and not the David DeJesuses of the world. They couldn't even move DeJesus...

You won't be getting that signing Upton and Wright to long term deals at top of the market rates



O rly? Why?
Because they don't have enough pieces to sustain the team they have and be competitive, it's going to be several years before the team is in a position to win. When they are, they will add free agents and lock up their own talent.



Yeah, and Francisco Liriano is a guy who's put up an ERA over 5 in his last 280 innings spread over 2 seasons. This isn't a big money superstar here.

Yes, but David Wright?

B.J. Upton (I'm assuming that's the Upton you meant)

And Rick Porcello/Justin Masterson?


Angel Pagan >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the current version of Brett Jackson, and even then I fully expect they'll be in on Upton.
That would shock the hell out of me.

He is going to make 5/60-70 most likely, or at least demand it.

Upton is a league average hitter, and a slightly above average defender in center. Why pay that kind of money for someone when Brett Jackson has that upside and he is already locked up over those years for a fraction of the price? It makes no sense to sign him.

All you need are platoon outfielders, a third basemen, and a few starters. You aren't likely to win next season, so why spend a lot of money on guys long term when those resources should be spent or rather saved for when the team is good?

And Upton is most likely going to get a qualifying offer, you ready to give up your second round draft pick for him on top of paying him?






Its also beyond clear that they've done alot of saving over the past 2 years - some 80 million dollars worth. It's beyond clear they need talent. It's beyond clear there's no huge money FA on the market except for Hamilton and Greinke, neither of which I expect the Cubs to be in on. Its beyond clear that sitting around waiting for prospects is a pretty stupid way to build a team.
What?!!

It's beyond the best way!

It's how you create a lean, strong, long term organization with a stable future.

6 years of team control for a strong group of players together. It is absolutely the best way to build your organization. You develop, develop, develop. Every time the Cubs spend big money in free agency it has back fired. Every time. By now, you would think Cubs fans would have caught on how horrible that plan has worked out. Theo seems to know that as well, since his only mistakes in Boston were his free agent signings.

You have to develop your own big league talent to have a sustainable winning organization for the future. It's how every successful franchise is where they are today. Because they developed the vast majority of their players. Then you use your payroll resources to lock those guys up long term in order to maintain the group. It's what Texas did, it's what the Cardinals have done, it's what the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, and every successful baseball team has done. You have to have your own talent that you develop, and that comes from the farm system. It's where a bad team's focus should be. The Cubs are looking at another 60-70 win team next season. You should keep payroll down for future payroll considerations, and continue to develop your team. Spend money on development resources, training facilities, signing bonus', scouting, etc.

Not on free agents that are most likely not going to pan out, and won't help a bad team enough to be a contender. Especially not consistently enough.

It's by far the most efficient and best way to develop an organization. Of all teams, Cubs fans should be the most aware of this.


It's beyond clear that Chicago is one of the top three biggest markets in this sport especially, and the Cubs do not have to operate and rebuild like the Royals, Pirates, and Rays waiting for their prospects to mature after making a decades worth of top 5 picks. Its beyond clear there's a HUGE difference between not spending on Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, both who the Cubs looked at last year, and making 28 year old BJ Upton your FA headliner. Its beyond clear that "Cubs fans seem to do this every year" is just a pretty weak debate tactic, like repeating a non-truth as truth. Its beyond clear that Erik Bedard is not going to headline anyone's FA class (the guy hasn't thrown over 130 innings in 5 years) but sure he's entirely possible (though Kevin Correia is far more likely). It's beyond clear that there's zero chance BJ Upton for 4-5 years, Reynolds for a year maybe two,
It's not that you don't have to rebuild like smaller markets. It's that you SHOULD rebuild. You should be patient, rebuild, save your money, and sign stop gaps. David Wright?

How about Kevin Youkilis on a one year deal for 5 million? And maybe Vitters can start to come along better, or hell, let him start instead. And keep developing at third. Even Mark Reynolds. He wants back in Baltimore, but are you ready to spend the near 10 million he might get this off-season on a guy whose value comes in streaks on a below .500 team? Why waste the money? Unless you can get him for 4-5 million, there is no point in going after him.



You do not need to have a headliner in free agency. That's very naive. The Cardinals won't be signing anyone this season other than maybe a situational lefty, and possible a platoon shortstop. Is that going to keep a team whose OD roster will be over 70% draft developed players from likely making the playoffs again next season?

You don't need any headliners.

Brandon McCarthy....good choice
Kelly Shopach.....good choice

These are the kinds of guys that will help, be cheap, and if and likely when the Cubs are out of it, you might be able to trade off for a prospect piece at the deadline. If not, it doesn't matter because of how little you spent on them.

You should be looking at the organizational depth chart of the Cubs and seeing the long term pieces at each position (and hopefully you have a few at each position) and then filling out the MLB roster with very inexpensive pieces in the interim until those guys are developed where you want them to be. That's how you build a sustainable product in the MLB.


Martin/Shoppach/Laird/Someone for a year maybe two, Liriano for a year maybe two, and whoever is not going to come close to destroying the Cubs' ability to make further moves in future season.
Never said they would.

I'm talking about B.J. Upton and David Wright.


This future isn't going to magically pop up one year because prospects. There's no way this FO is going to be so stupid to pin all their hopes on prospects as guys like Castro, Rizzo, Barney, Samardzija, and Garza blow through their 20's.
The Cubs future lies in the last two draft classes, and their next two. The goal is to have guys like Castro, Rizzo, and Barney still around to be the veterans when those guys have developed to help out. Theo has basically said all of this (but not in so many words).

Your organization needs to be developed. You don't have enough to win by adding free agents to this group.

As a Cards fan, I hope as hell you do, it will keep the Cubs sucking for another decade. You have to develop your big league talent to be a long term, sustainable successful major league baseball organization.

The Cubs are in their rebuilding process now because of the Zambrano, Soriano, Garza trade, type of deals they have made. Not necessarily picking on any of them specifically, but it's that win-now mentality that they pursued that has put them in this position to need to rebuild now....most of that is attributed to Jim Hendry thinking he needed to buy pieces to win now. Theo is the god-send that will hopefully be patient and watch the team develop, since it's what he did in Boston.


And who in the heeeeeeeeeelll is signing for 5 million dollars as a FA? You already threw out Angel Pagan. What is his incentive to take 5 million? He 4.8 putting up 4 bWAR this year and has put up 10 bWAR in his past 3 seasons. He waits 6 years to hit FA for a 200K raise? Give me a break....Paul Maholm got more than 5 million, and he's the benchmark for all Hoyer signings amongst you and every Cubs fan who actually believes they plan to sit and collect prospects until the prospects say its OK.

There are several good pieces you can sign for 5 million bucks

Kevin Youk
Kelly Shoppach
Brandon McCarthy
Shaun Marcum
Gavin Floyd
Carlos Villanueva

These are the kinds of stop gaps that you can sign to one year deals for cheap (some of these guys will get multi-year deals, but these are the guys you should be pursuing, the B and C-type free agents that need a rebound season somewhere fresh) and they might even stick around for another year beyond this. They are temporary options that are both cheap and affordable, as well they could be good enough to help you win in any given season depending how the team does. If the team sucks, then you can essentially unload each of them if you had to.



I know I know...Mark Reynolds isn't my idea of a long term 3B? Ca-razy.

Why are being all snarky and sarcastic about this?


The Cubs are faaaaaaaaaaar more likely to be the Orioles of next year than they will be the Astros or the 2012 Cubs again.
Completely disagree, 100% and the Cubs fan sitting next to me rolled his eyes when I repeated your statement.


The Cubs have a long way to go. You have a few strong pieces, but not nearly enough. It COULD happen, but it's very very unlikely. We don't know what they will do this off-season, but you are looking at a 70 win season next year.

I swear I have this conversation with Cubs fans every year. You HAVE to be patient and let the rebuilding process develop. And it hasn't done that yet. You have your first group of guys up (Castro, Rizzo, Barney, etc). But you don't have much in the way of pitching prospects and the rest of your good specs are in low A. Brett Jackson and Vitters could still be something, but that is yet to happen (we'll see). But this organization needs to be focused on the long term solutions, and not on trying to get immediate answers.



This is the same franchise who've been heavily rumored to be willing to pay as much as 90% of Soriano's remaining contract just to get back real talent. This rebuild isn't about hoarding money for One Day when the the magical prospects of The Future allow it. You don't magic a rebuild with pixie dust and hope. You get talent with the resources available, and the Cubs are loaded with resources (plenty of money to spend, a deep farm system probably a year away from ranking in the top 5-6 in the game).

The Cubs have a deep farm system?

Sickels has them 20th
Keith Law has them 20th
Fangraphs has them 22nd
Goldstein has them 20th

How in the hell are they a top 5-6 system in the game?

You have money, and that's a great resource, but save it, don't block future players, and don't forfeit draft picks to be a little better now when you can be the Red Sox or Yankees one day with your resources. You'll just end up repeating the last decade or being like the Mets. Save your resources for when the organization is actually ready to be strong enough to compete.

If I were Theo.

My focus would be on the upcoming draft
Sign a guy like Kevin Youkilis to a 5-7 mil deal since his option will be decline (if he wants more than that, there is nothing wrong with just giving Vitters the job if they believe he has earned it.
If the Mets let Shoppach get away, a 4 mil deal would be fair for both sides

(assuming who will be available and at what price)
Sign two of Shaun Marcum, Francisco Liriano, Joe Blanton, Brandon McCarthy, Guthrie/Sanchez, Floyd, Villanueva

I wouldn't go more than 2 years on anybody, and I wouldn't top 10 mil a season at any cost. You aren't going to be good this year most likely, so there really isn't any reason for shooting for the stars and wasting resources when the team isn't there yet. Develop the guys that are low in the system like Baez, Vogelbach, Lake, Maples, etc. That should be the focus.

Kings Analyst
10-26-2012, 03:28 AM
Oakland Athletics

C: Derek Norris
1B: Brandon Moss
2B: Scott Sizemore
SS: Stephen Drew
3B: Josh Donaldson
LF: Yoenis Cespedes
CF: Chris Young
RF: Josh Reddick
DH: Seth Smith

SP1: Jarrod Parker
SP2: Brett Anderson
SP3: A.J. Griffin
SP4: Tommy Milone
SP5: Dan Straily

At this point, this is what I'm thinking.

Jeffy25
10-26-2012, 03:37 AM
At this point, this is what I'm thinking.

Looks like a good, controllable group.

I don't know about a repeat, but it should be a .500 team at least.

RevHokALugie
10-26-2012, 04:03 AM
New York Yankees

1. Derek Jeter- Ss
2. Ichiro Suzuki- LF
3. Robinson Cano- 2B
4. Mark Texeira- 1B
5. Justin Upton- RF
6. Alex Rodriguez- DH
7. Brian McCann/Russell Martin- C
8. Anthony Rendon- 3B
9. Brett Gardner- CF

SP1: C.C. Sabathia
SP2: Hiroki Kuroda
SP3: Andy Pettite
SP4: Haren/Lohse/peavy/or Hughes if not traded.
SP5: Ross Detweiler

How did Detweiler, Rendon, Mccann, & Upton get on the Yankees you might ask? Here's how vv

Arizona Get: Chase Headley, Eduardo Nunez, & Adam Warren

Padres Get: Chris Johnson, Ivan Nova, & a pitching prospect from Dbacks

Yankees: Justin Upton and 1 mid tier prospects from both Dbacks and Padres.


Nationals Get: Granderson, Chamberlain, Betances, & Phelps

Yankees Get: Anthony Rendon, Tyler Moore and Ross Detweiler

Braves Decline option on McCann and yanks pick him up on two year deal. If not Russell Martin comes back.

All signs point to Braves picking it up McCanns option. No way would they let him slip through, still too much value.

OneTuzSea
10-26-2012, 08:23 AM
I would be ecstatic if the Indians signed Dan Haren.

SenorGato
10-26-2012, 12:00 PM
You won't be getting that signing Upton and Wright to long term deals at top of the market rates

This isn't even English.


Because they don't have enough pieces to sustain the team they have and be competitive, it's going to be several years before the team is in a position to win. When they are, they will add free agents and lock up their own talent.

Again, this is nonsensical. What is this even supposed to mean? They don't have pieces to sustain the team they have?



Yes, but David Wright?

Hence, Mark Reynolds. Wright's a minor rumor at this point.

B
.J. Upton (I'm assuming that's the Upton you meant)

And Rick Porcello/Justin Masterson?


That would shock the hell out of me.


Yes, it usually is shocking when a 100 loss team gets better. It's also extremely easy for that 100 loss team to do if they have plenty of cash to make it happen.


He is going to make 5/60-70 most likely, or at least demand it.

Again, not breaking the bank, especially for a prime aged CF talent who's averaged 3.9 fWAR in his career as a starter.


Upton is a league average hitter, and a slightly above average defender in center. Why pay that kind of money for someone when Brett Jackson has that upside and he is already locked up over those years for a fraction of the price? It makes no sense to sign him.

Lol stop. Brett Jackson was striking out in a third of his PAs in AAA. It makes tons of sense to sign if him if you take the time to live in reality with prospects rather than propping them up to players they are not.


All you need are platoon outfielders, a third basemen, and a few starters. You aren't likely to win next season, so why spend a lot of money on guys long term when those resources should be spent or rather saved for when the team is good?

Oh yeah that's cheap and easy. 15 million should cover that. Insisting they're unlikely to win, which who cares, is not a reason to not add talent. Again, a completely nonsensical thought process...No, hoarding resources on the assumption that it will have the same value moving forward is a terrible idea at it's best.


And Upton is most likely going to get a qualifying offer, you ready to give up your second round draft pick for him on top of paying him?

Lol yes, it's a second round pick.


What?!!

It's beyond the best way!

It's how you create a lean, strong, long term organization with a stable future.

Yes, and despite your insistence signing a few FAs does not throw the train off the tracks. Stop treating this franchise like they're the Royals or Pirates, because they are not.


6 years of team control for a strong group of players together. It is absolutely the best way to build your organization. You develop, develop, develop. Every time the Cubs spend big money in free agency it has back fired. Every time. By now, you would think Cubs fans would have caught on how horrible that plan has worked out. Theo seems to know that as well, since his only mistakes in Boston were his free agent signings.


Are you fn kidding me? How many times have the Cubs spent big on FA? Didn't doing it in 2007 help them to field the best regular season team in baseball in 2008? Isn't this FO WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY better at evaluating players than Jim Hendry and the 2-3 other guys who worked in the FO at the time?

And yet, there is he and is GM are...talking about pursuing FAs. Somehow missing on two FAs in Boston isn't causing them to live in fear.

Also, like many things Cubs related, you are 100% clueless as to how many Cubs fans here would actually agree with you. They buy the fear.


You have to develop your own big league talent to have a sustainable winning organization for the future. It's how every successful franchise is where they are today. Because they developed the vast majority of their players. Then you use your payroll resources to lock those guys up long term in order to maintain the group. It's what Texas did, it's what the Cardinals have done, it's what the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, and every successful baseball team has done. You have to have your own talent that you develop, and that comes from the farm system. It's where a bad team's focus should be. The Cubs are looking at another 60-70 win team next season. You should keep payroll down for future payroll considerations, and continue to develop your team. Spend money on development resources, training facilities, signing bonus', scouting, etc.

So......Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, Jeff Samardzija, Darwin Barney, James Russell, and Carlos Marmol...they're not Cubs products? They're just here to fill the gap of time until truly stud prospects come up and save the franchise? What nonsense....


Not on free agents that are most likely not going to pan out, and won't help a bad team enough to be a contender. Especially not consistently enough.

Yeah, BJ Upton is a 2013 only acquisition. His expiration date is actually 2014. More completely baseless analysis...


It's by far the most efficient and best way to develop an organization. Of all teams, Cubs fans should be the most aware of this.

Yeah guess what? The goal isn't to be 100% efficient. There is no such thing. The Yankees haven't won the most games in baseball over the past 15 or so years because they're fn efficient. The Cubs do not have to operate like less profitable and historic franchises, and THAT is why Epstein took the job. It's absolutely ridiculous to think they would actually sit around waiting for friggin 18 year olds to drag the franchise out of the hole.


It's not that you don't have to rebuild like smaller markets. It's that you SHOULD rebuild. You should be patient, rebuild, save your money, and sign stop gaps. David Wright?

They've been rebuilding for 3 years now. Yes, David Wright.


How about Kevin Youkilis on a one year deal for 5 million? And maybe Vitters can start to come along better, or hell, let him start instead. And keep developing at third. Even Mark Reynolds. He wants back in Baltimore, but are you ready to spend the near 10 million he might get this off-season on a guy whose value comes in streaks on a below .500 team? Why waste the money? Unless you can get him for 4-5 million, there is no point in going after him.


Kevin Youkilis is 34 years old next year, has battled injuries the past 3 years, probably wants nothing to do with what you're saying (lose lose lose until prospects give the OK), and he's a mediocre defensive 3B at best at this point in his career. It's a mediocre idea, but sure.

Yes, I would be very interested in a 28 year old 3B who averages almost 35 HRs a year as a starter. It's common sense. It makes infinitely more sense than signing a 34 year old who was the first to be moved from a franchise who decided losing in 2012 was their best option. If he costs 10 million for a year or two then go right ahead, the Cubs have the money and he's not tying this organization into a knot.


You do not need to have a headliner in free agency. That's very naive. The Cardinals won't be signing anyone this season other than maybe a situational lefty, and possible a platoon shortstop. Is that going to keep a team whose OD roster will be over 70% draft developed players from likely making the playoffs again next season?

Don't care about the Cardinals in the slightest, headliners is a word dude not a need, and certainly don't care what percentage of players they drafted. Signing a few FAs does not mean the Cubs suddenly won't have a largely homegrown roster, so please don't try to spin the conversation that way.


Brandon McCarthy....good choice
Kelly Shopach.....good choice

Yeah, no ****. I'll continue....

BJ Upton...good choice.
Mark Reynolds...good choice.
Francisco Liriano...good reclamation project.
Russell Martin...good choice.


These are the kinds of guys that will help, be cheap, and if and likely when the Cubs are out of it, you might be able to trade off for a prospect piece at the deadline. If not, it doesn't matter because of how little you spent on them.

Once again, cheap is not the #1 goal. TALENT is the goal. GETTING BETTER is the goal. Not this drivel about losing, losing, losing until we're the most efficient big market team in the world with mad prospects.


You should be looking at the organizational depth chart of the Cubs and seeing the long term pieces at each position (and hopefully you have a few at each position) and then filling out the MLB roster with very inexpensive pieces in the interim until those guys are developed where you want them to be. That's how you build a sustainable product in the MLB.

A few at each position? What? You build a sustainable product by having talent. You need starting talent first and foremost, because there is no depth where there are no starters. BJ Upton is a certifiable starter in his prime. Mark Reynolds is a certifiable stop gap starter. Russell Martin is a starter. Of the three, ONE is in my mind is on the roster past 2014.


The Cubs future lies in the last two draft classes, and their next two. The goal is to have guys like Castro, Rizzo, and Barney still around to be the veterans when those guys have developed to help out. Theo has basically said all of this (but not in so many words).


Barney will be gone by 2015. He's a 2 WAR player, a solid starter, who isn't making millions yet. He'll start making that by 2014/2015. Hopefully Baez can take 2B by then. No, Theo has not said all this, that is another blatantly false statement.


Your organization needs to be developed. You don't have enough to win by adding free agents to this group.

Yeah, and you develop by acquiring talent. You don't sit on your hands to acquire talent. The second sentence is just a completely ignorant view of FA...It's not only about putting final touches on a roster because that completely murders an entire avenue of acquiring talent. This is common sense.


As a Cards fan, I hope as hell you do, it will keep the Cubs sucking for another decade. You have to develop your big league talent to be a long term, sustainable successful major league baseball organization.

Yeah, again, insisting it's a crippling offseason plan doesn't make it so. You're doing alot of insisting, and anyone who takes three seconds can see the holes. There is not some arbitrary amount of talent necessary to go out and acquire FA talent, especially young FA talent still in their 20's. You're following the absolute most basic logic and thought process, and it's already outdated. Did the Padres destroy their future by resigning Quentin and Street to two year deals? Seriously...and they don't even have the financial power of the Cubs.


The Cubs are in their rebuilding process now because of the Zambrano, Soriano, Garza trade, type of deals they have made. Not necessarily picking on any of them specifically, but it's that win-now mentality that they pursued that has put them in this position to need to rebuild now....most of that is attributed to Jim Hendry thinking he needed to buy pieces to win now. Theo is the god-send that will hopefully be patient and watch the team develop, since it's what he did in Boston.

Lol yeah Garza was a real crippler. The Cubs are in rebuilding mode because that 2008 team got old, got old fast, and the farm system stopped producing talent. Carlos Zambrano fell from pseudo-ace to garbage in like 3 years, and all in his late 20's. Derrek Lee's wrist killed his production. This is what brought the Cubs down. It is *not* because they spent a little money. What a narrow minded and completely unfounded view...



There are several good pieces you can sign for 5 million bucks

Kevin Youk
Kelly Shoppach
Brandon McCarthy
Shaun Marcum
Gavin Floyd
Carlos Villanueva

Shaun Marcum is taking 5 million? Brandon McCarthy? Youkilis? Really now?

5 million is far more likely to land you the Kevin Correias of the world, and I've already said that he makes plenty of sense for the Cubs.


Why are being all snarky and sarcastic about this?

Because you have no idea how popular your thinking is amongst Cubs fans, and even less of an idea of how off you are. The Royals and Pirates have been trying to put an organization together for 20 years using prospects and top 5 picks. It is an incredibly inefficient way to build a franchise.


Completely disagree, 100% and the Cubs fan sitting next to me rolled his eyes when I repeated your statement.

Oh did he? Dial 1-800-CARE.


The Cubs have a long way to go. You have a few strong pieces, but not nearly enough. It COULD happen, but it's very very unlikely. We don't know what they will do this off-season, but you are looking at a 70 win season next year.


What # of pieces is "enough?" Lets be exact about it. How many prospects have to come up before you and your Cubs fan friend next to you give permission to make moves on outside talent?

BTW, another no duh on the long way to go thing. I realize...and I'm going out on the edge here...that signing BJ Upton and friends does not magically fix everything with the franchise. That is not the point of signing BJ Upton and friends, and once you understand that you will understand my thinking. You so clearly do not.


The Cubs have a deep farm system?

Sickels has them 20th
Keith Law has them 20th
Fangraphs has them 22nd
Goldstein has them 20th

How in the hell are they a top 5-6 system in the game?


1. Read.

2. Please don't pretend you know anything about the Cubs farm system.


If I were Theo.

My focus would be on the upcoming draft

Lol the draft is a year away.

ZHawk1123
10-26-2012, 12:12 PM
This isn't even English.



Again, this is nonsensical. What is this even supposed to mean? They don't have pieces to sustain the team they have?



Hence, Mark Reynolds. Wright's a minor rumor at this point.

B

Yes, it usually is shocking when a 100 loss team gets better. It's also extremely easy for that 100 loss team to do if they have plenty of cash to make it happen.



Again, not breaking the bank, especially for a prime aged CF talent who's averaged 3.9 fWAR in his career as a starter.



Lol stop. Brett Jackson was striking out in a third of his PAs in AAA. It makes tons of sense to sign if him if you take the time to live in reality with prospects rather than propping them up to players they are not.



Oh yeah that's cheap and easy. 15 million should cover that. Insisting they're unlikely to win, which who cares, is not a reason to not add talent. Again, a completely nonsensical thought process...No, hoarding resources on the assumption that it will have the same value moving forward is a terrible idea at it's best.



Lol yes, it's a second round pick.



Yes, and despite your insistence signing a few FAs does not throw the train off the tracks. Stop treating this franchise like they're the Royals or Pirates, because they are not.



Are you fn kidding me? How many times have the Cubs spent big on FA? Didn't doing it in 2007 help them to field the best regular season team in baseball in 2008? Isn't this FO WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY better at evaluating players than Jim Hendry and the 2-3 other guys who worked in the FO at the time?

And yet, there is he and is GM are...talking about pursuing FAs. Somehow missing on two FAs in Boston isn't causing them to live in fear.

Also, like many things Cubs related, you are 100% clueless as to how many Cubs fans here would actually agree with you. They buy the fear.



So......Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, Jeff Samardzija, Darwin Barney, James Russell, and Carlos Marmol...they're not Cubs products? They're just here to fill the gap of time until truly stud prospects come up and save the franchise? What nonsense....



Yeah, BJ Upton is a 2013 only acquisition. His expiration date is actually 2014. More completely baseless analysis...



Yeah guess what? The goal isn't to be 100% efficient. There is no such thing. The Yankees haven't won the most games in baseball over the past 15 or so years because they're fn efficient. The Cubs do not have to operate like less profitable and historic franchises, and THAT is why Epstein took the job. It's absolutely ridiculous to think they would actually sit around waiting for friggin 18 year olds to drag the franchise out of the hole.



They've been rebuilding for 3 years now. Yes, David Wright.


Kevin Youkilis is 34 years old next year, has battled injuries the past 3 years, probably wants nothing to do with what you're saying (lose lose lose until prospects give the OK), and he's a mediocre defensive 3B at best at this point in his career. It's a mediocre idea, but sure.

Yes, I would be very interested in a 28 year old 3B who averages almost 35 HRs a year as a starter. It's common sense. It makes infinitely more sense than signing a 34 year old who was the first to be moved from a franchise who decided losing in 2012 was their best option. If he costs 10 million for a year or two then go right ahead, the Cubs have the money and he's not tying this organization into a knot.



Don't care about the Cardinals in the slightest, headliners is a word dude not a need, and certainly don't care what percentage of players they drafted. Signing a few FAs does not mean the Cubs suddenly won't have a largely homegrown roster, so please don't try to spin the conversation that way.



Yeah, no ****. I'll continue....

BJ Upton...good choice.
Mark Reynolds...good choice.
Francisco Liriano...good reclamation project.
Russell Martin...good choice.



Once again, cheap is not the #1 goal. TALENT is the goal. GETTING BETTER is the goal. Not this drivel about losing, losing, losing until we're the most efficient big market team in the world with mad prospects.



A few at each position? What? You build a sustainable product by having talent. You need starting talent first and foremost, because there is no depth where there are no starters. BJ Upton is a certifiable starter in his prime. Mark Reynolds is a certifiable stop gap starter. Russell Martin is a starter. Of the three, ONE is in my mind is on the roster past 2014.



Barney will be gone by 2015. He's a 2 WAR player, a solid starter, who isn't making millions yet. He'll start making that by 2014/2015. Hopefully Baez can take 2B by then. No, Theo has not said all this, that is another blatantly false statement.



Yeah, and you develop by acquiring talent. You don't sit on your hands to acquire talent. The second sentence is just a completely ignorant view of FA...It's not only about putting final touches on a roster because that completely murders an entire avenue of acquiring talent. This is common sense.



Yeah, again, insisting it's a crippling offseason plan doesn't make it so. You're doing alot of insisting, and anyone who takes three seconds can see the holes. There is not some arbitrary amount of talent necessary to go out and acquire FA talent, especially young FA talent still in their 20's. You're following the absolute most basic logic and thought process, and it's already outdated. Did the Padres destroy their future by resigning Quentin and Street to two year deals? Seriously...and they don't even have the financial power of the Cubs.



Lol yeah Garza was a real crippler. The Cubs are in rebuilding mode because that 2008 team got old, got old fast, and the farm system stopped producing talent. Carlos Zambrano fell from pseudo-ace to garbage in like 3 years, and all in his late 20's. Derrek Lee's wrist killed his production. This is what brought the Cubs down. It is *not* because they spent a little money. What a narrow minded and completely unfounded view...



Shaun Marcum is taking 5 million? Brandon McCarthy? Youkilis? Really now?

5 million is far more likely to land you the Kevin Correias of the world, and I've already said that he makes plenty of sense for the Cubs.



Because you have no idea how popular your thinking is amongst Cubs fans, and even less of an idea of how off you are. The Royals and Pirates have been trying to put an organization together for 20 years using prospects and top 5 picks. It is an incredibly inefficient way to build a franchise.



Oh did he? Dial 1-800-CARE.



What # of pieces is "enough?" Lets be exact about it. How many prospects have to come up before you and your Cubs fan friend next to you give permission to make moves on outside talent?

BTW, another no duh on the long way to go thing. I realize...and I'm going out on the edge here...that signing BJ Upton and friends does not magically fix everything with the franchise. That is not the point of signing BJ Upton and friends, and once you understand that you will understand my thinking. You so clearly do not.



1. Read.

2. Please don't pretend you know anything about the Cubs farm system.



Lol the draft is a year away.

:speechless:
Holy post! I'm surprised you didn't break PSD

JOSKOMANG4
10-26-2012, 01:21 PM
Trade:

1. Blue Jays acquire IF D.Murphy, OF J.Bay, & RHP D.Gee. Mets acquire IF Y.Escobar, 1b/OF A.Lind, & C JP Arecendia

Mets Lineup:

C- JP Arecendia
1b- Lind
2b- Tejada
SS- Escobar
3b- Wright
LF- Duda
CF- Niewenheis
RF- I.Davis

Rotation:
LHP Santana
RHP Dickey
LHP Niese
RHP Harvey
RHP C.Young

Farsight
10-26-2012, 01:36 PM
Trade:

1. Blue Jays acquire IF D.Murphy, OF J.Bay, & RHP D.Gee. Mets acquire IF Y.Escobar, 1b/OF A.Lind, & C JP Arecendia

Mets Lineup:

C- JP Arecendia
1b- Lind
2b- Tejada
SS- Escobar
3b- Wright
LF- Duda
CF- Niewenheis
RF- I.Davis

Rotation:
LHP Santana
RHP Dickey
LHP Niese
RHP Harvey
RHP C.Young

I like Daniel Murphy, but why would the jays do this? He has had 1 good year in the majors.The jays are not going to eat 18 million dollars from the Jason Bay contract (hes not even serviceable). Gee is the back of the rotation starter. Escobar is coming off a down year, JPA has some value as he projects to be an average catcher, and Lind... Hes a platoon bat against RHP. The jays lose this trade handsdown.

Maybe the Mets trade Murphy for JPA+ a mid level prospect... But Jason bays contract is ridiculous. If he was mentioned in trade talks, AA would hangup the phone.

Nomar
10-26-2012, 01:48 PM
Trade:

1. Blue Jays acquire IF D.Murphy, OF J.Bay, & RHP D.Gee. Mets acquire IF Y.Escobar, 1b/OF A.Lind, & C JP Arecendia

Mets Lineup:

C- JP Arecendia
1b- Lind
2b- Tejada
SS- Escobar
3b- Wright
LF- Duda
CF- Niewenheis
RF- I.Davis

Rotation:
LHP Santana
RHP Dickey
LHP Niese
RHP Harvey
RHP C.Young

Davis in RF? Youre crazy.

HowFit
10-26-2012, 02:07 PM
I like.... I like alot!...... However if we trade for Justin Upton, I think the push will come to sign BJ and pair them around Jason and Freddie for the next 3 seasons. Wouldn't mind your plan at all and I do think the Braves will part with some pitching this off-season. I also think we will at least offer Greinke a deal. But if your plan goes through, I will be a happy Braves fan.

I agree...

SenorGato
10-26-2012, 02:10 PM
:speechless:
Holy post! I'm surprised you didn't break PSD

Holy crap I didn't even notice that. Jeebus. If it helps the idea that the Cubs are and can only build through prospects until an arbitrary time period were they spend is just duuuuuuumb to me and something I am probably passionate about.

Just to thow it out there on the farm system...Those were preseason rankings Jeffry posted. In just two years the Cubs have spent close to 60 million on amateur talent...nobody else really comes close. The vast majority of the farms talent hasn't even reached High A, most are teenagers, but three of them are three of the top 100, maybe even 50, prospects in baseball (one has played a full season).

This is all before making the #2 pick in the upcoming draft and having the second largest IFA pool in baseball.

Basically, this is a farm system that can explode, and sooner (2013/2014) rather than later. The idea that we can't spend because there aren't enough prospects is a completely baseless one if you took the time to do any research on the Cubs. This is an ideal offseason to invest in the major league roster.

HowFit
10-26-2012, 02:10 PM
New York Yankees

1. Derek Jeter- Ss
2. Ichiro Suzuki- LF
3. Robinson Cano- 2B
4. Mark Texeira- 1B
5. Justin Upton- RF
6. Alex Rodriguez- DH
7. Brian McCann/Russell Martin- C
8. Anthony Rendon- 3B
9. Brett Gardner- CF

SP1: C.C. Sabathia
SP2: Hiroki Kuroda
SP3: Andy Pettite
SP4: Haren/Lohse/peavy/or Hughes if not traded.
SP5: Ross Detweiler

How did Detweiler, Rendon, Mccann, & Upton get on the Yankees you might ask? Here's how vv

Arizona Get: Chase Headley, Eduardo Nunez, & Adam Warren

Padres Get: Chris Johnson, Ivan Nova, & a pitching prospect from Dbacks

Yankees: Justin Upton and 1 mid tier prospects from both Dbacks and Padres.


Nationals Get: Granderson, Chamberlain, Betances, & Phelps

Yankees Get: Anthony Rendon, Tyler Moore and Ross Detweiler

Braves Decline option on McCann and yanks pick him up on two year deal. If not Russell Martin comes back.

Braves won't decline McCann's option and neither will Headley will go anywhere after signing that contract unless Padres were just blown away with an offer...

Pinstripe pride
10-26-2012, 02:37 PM
When you're flying to Australia you've got to pass the time somehow.

a full day to be exact

Jeffy25
10-26-2012, 03:06 PM
Over 25,000 characters, had to go to two posts



Oh did he? Dial 1-800-CARE.
So you use the argument
'you have no idea how popular your thought process is around Cubs fans' as an argument

and then you shoot this down in such a rude way?

If you are going to continue with this in a condescending manner, I simply won't respond to you anymore.




What # of pieces is "enough?" Lets be exact about it. How many prospects have to come up before you and your Cubs fan friend next to you give permission to make moves on outside talent?
It isn't a specific amount. It's when the team only needs a couple of small pieces to be competitive for the division without those pieces.

I.e. you have an 80-85 win team on paper, and signing a guy like David Wright to play third base, a 5-7 WAR third basemen, can help you become a 90 win team. It doesn't have to be prospects, but that is by far the most efficient route, and you don't have enough help coming along the way soon enough to think the team can withstand some bad signings at this point. You can't be aggressive now in hopes of winning now, and then it fail and just be back where you are. You will have to restart the entire process because you will have ignored some important steps on the way.

It's just an example of not being self-aware enough of the organization and where they are heading.

This is a 70 win team on paper, are you going to be able to add 20 wins on this free agent market?

Because if you spend, and you don't get it, you are stuck with those guys for likely years to come (Upton is going to need a 5 year deal, Wright maybe 6 or 7). I'm not talking about the one year deals. Those are fine, although no point in overpaying for a one year stop-gap. I'm arguing the Wright and Upton choices. You lose a draft pick (which you need all those you can get) which also helps control your signing bonus allotment, and you are stuck with that player until his deal dies, regardless of his performance.

The team needs to be stronger with a stronger foundation before you get aggressive with compensatory free agents that are going to require more than 50 million dollars. Get Castro, Baez, Rizzo, Jackson and everyone to be a 80 win team (at least on paper, not necessarily in reality) before you worry about adding expensive pieces.

Free agency isn't a place to go construct a team. It's too expensive, regardless of your resources. It's the place you go to add your complimentary pieces to complete your roster. It's where you add that one player at that one weak position to finish the roster. It's not where you go and create your roster. It won't be successful, and the history of baseball has repeatedly shown this. I'm not just spewing rhetoric, it's a historical fact of the game. If you have an essentially empty roster (which you do, by that I don't mean you don't have good players, it means that you don't have enough of a good team at the core to sustain winning at this point) and take the division to pursue the playoffs. And you don't. You lack pitching big time. You have Garza and Shark. And that's really it. Your bullpen is laughably weak, your rotation has no depth, and Shark isn't even guaranteed to do what he did last year. For many organizations, he is the kind of guy you want in your 4 spot. I assume he can repeat, but that isn't the consensus is all I mean.

Your position player roster. You don't have a catcher (a captain), you have a rookie first basemen, a two year shortstop, a two year second basemen, and none of whom have put up the all-star seasons yet that you hope and assume they could in the future. You don't have a third basemen, and your outfield is weak as well.

Adding B.J. Upton and David Wright would make the Cubs better in 2013. But what, 5-7 wins better overall? This isn't a team that is anywhere close to winning the Central next year, and the division has put itself in a position to be taken over. At best, you could probably take over the Brewers. This organization needs a lot to be successful, so why waste resources when you can continue to develop future options that can yield awesome returns if done correctly?

I want the Cubs to be good, I honestly, genuinely do. I have always rooted for them when they have been in the playoffs. But this team just isn't anywhere close yet to being able to win. If you can find guys like a J.J. Reddick, or a Desmond Jennings in free agency, then by all means, load up. But the guys you are talking about are very expensive, and will only be getting older at this point. And you are adding them to a rather weak roster. You will be wasting money. Money that you would rather have available to lock up guys like Rizzo, Shark etc when they get closer to free agency, or in buying free agents at that point and having a lean roster so that when you add those expensive free agents, you don't have anymore Soriano's on the roster that you would have to eat the contract to get him off the roster.

Let's say you sign Upton and Wright
Let's say Upton gets 5/70 and Wright get 7/120. Both are considered decent and reasonable benchmarks by mlbtraderumors (Wright might get more than that, but it's the Zimmerman comp)

So next year, the Cubs win 77 games (just shooting it out there) and the team continues to develop talent and get a little better, a stronger farm system, even with the lost draft pick

Let's say they graduate someone like Baez and a pitching prospect. Let's say Baez is a 4 WAR second basemen (or shortstop and Castro is moved, whatever), Rizzo develops into a 5 WAR first basemen, Wright regresses 5%, Upton is a 3 WAR CFer, Jackson is now in center as a 3 WAR leftfielder, and you have a more complete team. That's maybe a 80-85 win team.

Then after this season, you have several guys entering arb (like Rizzo), Garza is now gone, or given 60-80 million to stay, and you are still paying Wright and Upton to be on the roster for a combined 30 million. Your payroll is back over 120 million, and you want to add an all star right fielder like Jay Bruce or Giancarlo Stanton (just random names) to come complete your roster and get you over that 90 win hump.

You are running out of payroll flexibility, still need more pitching, who knows how good the bullpen is yet, and you have an aging third basemen on the payroll for another 5 years and a starting to age Upton.

Why not wait to add guys like Wright and Upton in a few years when the roster is ready to add those pieces?


BTW, another no duh on the long way to go thing. I realize...and I'm going out on the edge here...that signing BJ Upton and friends does not magically fix everything with the franchise. That is not the point of signing BJ Upton and friends, and once you understand that you will understand my thinking. You so clearly do not.
So why are you wanting him then?




1. Read.

2. Please don't pretend you know anything about the Cubs farm system.

Care to show me then how they are a top 5 farm system in baseball instead of being condescendingly ignorant and rude and showing absolutely nothing to support your argument other than you just saying it?



Lol the draft is a year away.

And it's crazy important for the future of the Cubs, especially with the second overall pick in this years draft. You could get a Justin Verlander in that pick, or you could get a Greg Reynolds. It's a very important moment for the Cubs as a franchise.




I am unaware how you have some keen understanding of the Cubs over how I might. Because I'm not an everyday Cubs fan, am I somehow unable to understand their organization and what things other baseball organizations have done to become successful that created this wildly condescending post?

Jeffy25
10-26-2012, 03:06 PM
This isn't even English.



Again, this is nonsensical. What is this even supposed to mean? They don't have pieces to sustain the team they have?
If this is how you are going to conduct this conversation, what is the point?


Yes, it usually is shocking when a 100 loss team gets better. It's also extremely easy for that 100 loss team to do if they have plenty of cash to make it happen.

and you won't do it in free agency in one season.

It's never happened, and it most likely will never happen. You could buy every free agent on the market this upcoming off-season and not be a 100 win team next year.



Lol stop. Brett Jackson was striking out in a third of his PAs in AAA. It makes tons of sense to sign if him if you take the time to live in reality with prospects rather than propping them up to players they are not.
Jackson has that POTENTIAL. Are you prepared to make declarations on a players next 6 seasons based on 142 PA as a 23 year old? Yes Jackson strikes out a ton. But he plays good defense, and is capable of producing an .800 OPS at the big league level. But he has to be given the opportunity, and there is no better time to do it then now, while the team is being developed. He very well could be as good as or better than Upton over the next 5 seasons. He might not, but he will obviously cost a fraction of as much as Upton and there is no better time to give him the chance than now.





Oh yeah that's cheap and easy. 15 million should cover that. Insisting they're unlikely to win, which who cares, is not a reason to not add talent. Again, a completely nonsensical thought process...No, hoarding resources on the assumption that it will have the same value moving forward is a terrible idea at it's best.
Considering it's what the Red Sox did for a decade before being awesome and winning two titles, sure.....I'll go with non-sensical. Look at their organization prior to 98, and again prior to 02. They built their organization from the ground up.

You aren't even responding to an argument with an argument. You are just saying it's non-sensical with nothing to support it.




Lol yes, it's a second round pick.
It's the 33rd overall pick in this upcoming draft.

A rebuilding team is ready to blow that off for a player they likely already have to give him multi-milions a year on a last place team?






Yes, and despite your insistence signing a few FAs does not throw the train off the tracks. Stop treating this franchise like they're the Royals or Pirates, because they are not.
Is there something that says large market teams shouldn't rebuild and form their organization from the farm?


The best teams in baseball have developed their own talent. You can not buy a winning organization in free agency.

Literally, you could add Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, Zach Greinke, and every free agent on the market this upcoming off-season, and the Cubs still might not be the favorite in the division.

You aren't just a few pieces away from winning, you are several. You don't just need a Prince Fielder bat, or a Zack Greinke arm.

You need several arms, a ton more depth, and some impact bats. Something you argubly don't have any of at the moment.




Are you fn kidding me? How many times have the Cubs spent big on FA? Didn't doing it in 2007 help them to field the best regular season team in baseball in 2008? Isn't this FO WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY better at evaluating players than Jim Hendry and the 2-3 other guys who worked in the FO at the time?

Spent a ton of money in 2007
Wins by year
2008 - 97
2009 - 83
2010 - 75
2011 - 71
2012 - 61

You will notice that this trend is consistent with all teams that go boom or bust for big free agents looking for a headliner.

Look where it got them. A good season in 08, and then consistent regression.

You added a few pieces that completed the roster. The Cubs of 2007 were an 85 win team that they added a few high cost pieces to gain 12 wins.

12 wins over the 2012 Cubs gets them to 73 wins.


And yet, there is he and is GM are...talking about pursuing FAs. Somehow missing on two FAs in Boston isn't causing them to live in fear.
I can promise you you won't be signing any qualifying offer free agents this off-season. At least not without it backfiring like crazy on the organization.

If Theo does it, he is going against everything he said he was going to do when he was hired in his first press conference.

I'm not saying he won't do it. I'm saying it would be incredibly stupid.


Also, like many things Cubs related, you are 100% clueless as to how many Cubs fans here would actually agree with you. They buy the fear.
Every year Cubs fans get all excited about the team.

I got into discussions last year how the team would be a .500 team. Every year there is a lot of optimism.

And yet, my brother-in-law, who works in pro baseball, is far more realistic about the team, does completely agree with me, and expected a 100 loss team this past season and wasn't surprised when it did happen.

I am not, and you are not....the authority on Cubs fans. I don't doubt that you have optimistic fans for next season. But the Cubs will not be pulling a Baltimore Orioles in 2013. I would be very shocked to see them pull out a .500 season.




So......Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, Jeff Samardzija, Darwin Barney, James Russell, and Carlos Marmol...they're not Cubs products? They're just here to fill the gap of time until truly stud prospects come up and save the franchise? What nonsense....
That isn't even close to what I said, there is no point in discussing if you aren't even going to read.




Yeah, BJ Upton is a 2013 only acquisition. His expiration date is actually 2014. More completely baseless analysis...
How many free agents that are signed to 5 year deals play to their previous 6 years as an arb player in those 5 year deals?

It's less than 20%



If your expectation is to get a 3 rWAR or even a 4 rWAR player out of him over the next five seasons, you are dreaming. He is in the middle of his expected peak, he isn't likely to improve at this point.

I would assume another 10 rWAR over his next 5 seasons. That worth the 33rd overall pick in next years draft, sending Brett Jackson back to Iowa and paying him 60-70 million dollars?

The guy creates 75 runs per season offensively, the projection on Brett Jackson next season is 60 with a 10% improvement each season through the age of 28 with Upton declining 5% each year once he reaches 30.0.

Upton also has averaged a negative defensive runs saved each year since 2009 (between -5 and -10) while Jackson projects to be exactly neutral.

It makes no sense to sign Upton. And your only argument back has been 'that's nonsense and non-sensical' That's not even an argument. All you are doing is disagreeing. How about explaining why?




Yeah guess what? The goal isn't to be 100% efficient. There is no such thing. The Yankees haven't won the most games in baseball over the past 15 or so years because they're fn efficient. The Cubs do not have to operate like less profitable and historic franchises, and THAT is why Epstein took the job. It's absolutely ridiculous to think they would actually sit around waiting for friggin 18 year olds to drag the franchise out of the hole.
The Yankees also have a team full of hall of fame (or borderline) players that they developed

Mariano, Posada, Jeter, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, Cano and many other awesome players as well.


you don't have much of a choice, the organization has to be rebuilt. You are no where close to maintaining a sustainable long term winning product. You aren't in a much better place then the Astros. It has to be rebuilt, and Theo knows that.

Why is it that Theo took the Cubs over the Red Sox? Each organization is basically the same. It's not like he has to have a different game plan.

He didn't take the job because the Cubs lack constraint/resistance vs the Red Sox. If anything, the Red Sox have more resources.




They've been rebuilding for 3 years now. Yes, David Wright. It takes more than 3 years, you realize that....right?

You are going to sign David Wright to a 100+ million dollar contract to a last place team to do what exactly? Get older? His 5-7 WAR seasons would be completely wasted. You might get a few good seasons of him when the team is decent before he declines hard. But you certainly would be wasting his production and salary in 2013.



Yes, I would be very interested in a 28 year old 3B who averages almost 35 HRs a year as a starter. It's common sense. It makes infinitely more sense than signing a 34 year old who was the first to be moved from a franchise who decided losing in 2012 was their best option. If he costs 10 million for a year or two then go right ahead, the Cubs have the money and he's not tying this organization into a knot.
You gonna give Reynolds 10+ million to hit those 35 home runs on a 70 win team?

And Reynolds hit 23 home runs this year in the most homer friendly ballpark in baseball and carried a .763 OPS, 107 OPS+.

That isn't worth very much, and he arguably should be playing first base only at this point defensively.



Don't care about the Cardinals in the slightest, headliners is a word dude not a need, and certainly don't care what percentage of players they drafted. Signing a few FAs does not mean the Cubs suddenly won't have a largely homegrown roster, so please don't try to spin the conversation that way.


There is no spin, your literal statement was showing a concern for having a headliner in free agency.






Once again, cheap is not the #1 goal. TALENT is the goal. GETTING BETTER is the goal. Not this drivel about losing, losing, losing until we're the most efficient big market team in the world with mad prospects.

Do you want one and two year shots, or do you want a long term sustainable organization?

Do you want to be the Rangers or do you want to be the Mets? Good every few years vs having a long term strong organization.


What do you think my argument is here? You think because I'm a Cards fan that I want the Cubs to suck or something? I prefer them to be good, the rivalry is boring when they suck. But what you are asking for (and I'm mainly only talking about the mentality and the B.J. Upton and David Wright examples, not the rest) is not going to help the Cubs out in the long term. Baseball history has shown this, repeatedly.



A few at each position? What? You build a sustainable product by having talent. You need starting talent first and foremost, because there is no depth where there are no starters. BJ Upton is a certifiable starter in his prime. Mark Reynolds is a certifiable stop gap starter. Russell Martin is a starter. Of the three, ONE is in my mind is on the roster past 2014.

The latter two are fine, Upton doesn't make any sense for the Cubs though.

an at best 3 WAR player (don't use Fangraphs WAR if you can help it, way to influenced by UZR).

there is no point in paying a player more than 10 million a season to be on a last place team and to give up a draft pick in the process.


Barney will be gone by 2015. He's a 2 WAR player, a solid starter, who isn't making millions yet. He'll start making that by 2014/2015. Hopefully Baez can take 2B by then. No, Theo has not said all this, that is another blatantly false statement.

I didn't say he has said this, in fact I said he hasn't specifically said any of this. I said he has inferred most of this, and he has.

He has multiple times said that the team has to be built the 'right way' which is through the farm.

Tribune 3 days ago
“It kind of flashed out how great it would be playing baseball this time of year at Wrigley,” Epstein said. “That’s the goal, to get there in a way that allows us to do it year in and year out. You can’t help but look at what the Cardinals are doing, and the Giants now, and teams that are able to be factors in October year in and year out. ... There is urgency (to win), but that urgency will be paid back through hard work to get us there to stay. It won’t necessarily translate into a panic to get us there, or a shot at getting us there quicker, if it means a less healthy organization.”

Article from 3 days ago titled
"Win later: Theo looking to pass on big free agents"




Yeah, and you develop by acquiring talent. You don't sit on your hands to acquire talent. The second sentence is just a completely ignorant view of FA...It's not only about putting final touches on a roster because that completely murders an entire avenue of acquiring talent. This is common sense.
There isn't anything in free agency this year that is a long term, efficient piece that you or I are going to notice. And it certainly isn't someone like B.J. Upton or David Wright.




Yeah, again, insisting it's a crippling offseason plan doesn't make it so. You're doing alot of insisting, and anyone who takes three seconds can see the holes. There is not some arbitrary amount of talent necessary to go out and acquire FA talent, especially young FA talent still in their 20's. You're following the absolute most basic logic and thought process, and it's already outdated. Did the Padres destroy their future by resigning Quentin and Street to two year deals? Seriously...and they don't even have the financial power of the Cubs.
Nice Strawman. I never said those things.

You have to have some core pieces to build around. In my eyes, you don't have enough of those pieces yet. You do need long term talent, and FA can be a place to find that. But it's at the top of the market pricing, and has less room for errors. If you buy one or even two free agents and they don't help this team in 2015 be competitive, you could have regressed your rebuilding project.






Lol yeah Garza was a real crippler. The Cubs are in rebuilding mode because that 2008 team got old, got old fast, and the farm system stopped producing talent. Carlos Zambrano fell from pseudo-ace to garbage in like 3 years, and all in his late 20's. Derrek Lee's wrist killed his production. This is what brought the Cubs down. It is *not* because they spent a little money. What a narrow minded and completely unfounded view...

It is because they stopped developing minor league talent.

This was obvious by 2009 that the Cubs were going to be like this today. Same with the Astros in fact.

The White Sox and Brewers are heading there next.

What your farm system has today, gives you a snap-shot view of what your team is going to look like in 3-5 years from now. You have to continue to develop at all times. The Cubs and specifically Jim Hendry completely stopped doing that.

The Phillies being great the last few years is because they had Victorino, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Werth, Ruiz, Bourn, Hamels, and the pieces to trade for Halladay in their system. That's why they were so great. Not because they signed Adam Eaton and Jon Leiber. They developed that team.

It's the same with every successful team. The Giants today.
Bumgarner, Lincecum, Sandoval, Posey, Belt, Romo, Wilson, Cain etc.

Developed players. They have added pieces to the organization as the organization has moved along, but other than Zito, they haven't spent a lot of money on free agents, and now they can lock up these players if they want to when they do reach free agency (like Cain).



Shaun Marcum is taking 5 million? Brandon McCarthy? Youkilis? Really now?

5 million is far more likely to land you the Kevin Correias of the world, and I've already said that he makes plenty of sense for the Cubs.
and that's fine. I just said those are the guys you should pursue, and really I just meant pursue first. If they pass, then you move on those guys.

I think Alberto Cabrera could be in your 2013 rotation as well. Maybe a long shot, but he could.



Because you have no idea how popular your thinking is amongst Cubs fans, and even less of an idea of how off you are. The Royals and Pirates have been trying to put an organization together for 20 years using prospects and top 5 picks. It is an incredibly inefficient way to build a franchise.

And each were headlined by incompetent GM's

DM especially. He is epically stupid.

The Pirates getting Huntington is a god-send, and they should be very good next season. Before he came in, the team just kept trying to rebuild, and then would abandon it every 2-3 years and sign someone like Matt Morris and then they would have to restart their process. And they drafted horribly and didn't spend money on their draft picks.

The Royals and Pirates are where they are because of incompetent management. And from abandoning their rebuilding process way too easily and quickly for a need to 'win-now' when the organization wasn't ready.

And it doesn't help when you waste your first overall pick on Bryan Bullington and Kris Benson.

Muttman73
10-26-2012, 03:17 PM
Have much free time? I'm impressed

Jeffy25
10-26-2012, 03:29 PM
Holy crap I didn't even notice that. Jeebus. If it helps the idea that the Cubs are and can only build through prospects until an arbitrary time period were they spend is just duuuuuuumb to me and something I am probably passionate about.

Just to thow it out there on the farm system...Those were preseason rankings Jeffry posted. In just two years the Cubs have spent close to 60 million on amateur talent...nobody else really comes close. The vast majority of the farms talent hasn't even reached High A, most are teenagers, but three of them are three of the top 100, maybe even 50, prospects in baseball (one has played a full season).

This is all before making the #2 pick in the upcoming draft and having the second largest IFA pool in baseball.

Basically, this is a farm system that can explode, and sooner (2013/2014) rather than later. The idea that we can't spend because there aren't enough prospects is a completely baseless one if you took the time to do any research on the Cubs. This is an ideal offseason to invest in the major league roster.

I don't see how they are a top 5-6 farm system in baseball, which is exactly what you said

Having 3 guys in the top 100 prospects, possibly top 50 is not top 5-6


and again, stop strawmanning, I never said that last paragraph.


And Theo disagrees in this off-season being an ideal time. He sees this free agent market as incredibly weak and most of the players he would want are going to be too expensive to fit them economically (I'm paraphrasing from the quotes I read earlier). And the focus is on the Cubs core.


"I think there were a lot of positives. That core, at least in my mind, went from one player to half a dozen, and if we can do that again in 2013, and we look up and we have close to a dozen players in our core, I'll feel great about the overall health of the organization.

GA16Angels
10-26-2012, 03:42 PM
C: Wilin Rosario
1b: Michael Cuddyer
2b: Josh Rutledge
3b: Pacheco
SS: Tulo
LF: Cargo
CF: Dexter Fowler
RF: Tyler Colvin

Start Pitch
Chacin
Pomeranz
De La Rosa
(Free Agent)
Christian Friedrich

If I was the Rockies I would trade Fowler for a starting pitcher rather than spend on a free agent. The Braves would be a good fit probably.

Nomar
10-26-2012, 04:27 PM
Jesus i just read the longest post of my life. I need a gatorade or something.

tp13baby
10-26-2012, 04:27 PM
If I was the Rockies I would trade Fowler for a starting pitcher rather than spend on a free agent. The Braves would be a good fit probably.

They said they would listen. I wouldn't mind it, but I would prefer trading Cuddy.

The lineup I want to see is
C:Wilin Rosario
1b: Josh Pacheco
2b: Josh Rutledge
ss:Tulo
3rd: Chris Nelson/ Nolan Arenando (if he wakes up)
LF: Cargo
CF: Fowler
RF: Colvin

I think we all know Todd Heltons time as a starter is about up. I would like to see him retire as a Rockie, but want him to win. A winner, please give us a low spec for him just to see him win it. I don't think the Rockies have a shot with their pitching.

SenorGato
10-26-2012, 04:57 PM
I don't see how they are a top 5-6 farm system in baseball, which is exactly what you said

Having 3 guys in the top 100 prospects, possibly top 50 is not top 5-6


and again, stop strawmanning, I never said that last paragraph.


And Theo disagrees in this off-season being an ideal time. He sees this free agent market as incredibly weak and most of the players he would want are going to be too expensive to fit them economically (I'm paraphrasing from the quotes I read earlier). And the focus is on the Cubs core.

I'm going to address this first before compressing the FA conversation, though I can probably compress it here.

1) I did not call the Cubs farm system a CURRENT top 5 farm system. You're not even comprehending what was said. So once again you mischaracterize what has been said to fit the picture you want to paint (the same with the idea that signing/acquiring Upton/Wright constitutes as building solely through FA - it's two players and two high quality players at that).

2) Having three guys already so highly regarded in a system is huge. Again, two of those players have not even spent a full season in the minors. There is an enormous amount of room for this threesome (Baez, Almora, and Soler) to go up. Obviously there is room to go down as well, but considering how well regarded these three are they would have to absolutely suck next year to not gain any ground and/or drop.

3) After those three there are a myriad of players that are legitimate prospects despite not being top 100 guys. This includes named like Vitters, Jackson, Szczur, L. Watkins, Junior Lake, Trey McNutt, Dan Vogelbach, Gioskar Amaya, Jae Hoon Ha, Dillon Maples, Shawon Dunston Jr., Tayler Scott, Duane Underwood, Paul Blackburn, Stephen Bruno, Juan Carlos Paniagua (a big 2013 breakout candidate for the almighty lists), Jeimer Candelario, Arismendy Alcantara, Jeffry Baez, Alberto Cabrera, Rafael Dolis, Carlos A. Rodriguez, Rashard Crawford, Tony Zych, Marco Hernandez, Christian Villanueva, Arodys Vizcaino, Pierce Johnson, Ronald Torreyes, Frandy de la Rosa, Carlos Penalver, Ben Wells...Obviously most will not make it overall but the vast majority of these guys are legitimate prospects as teenagers. This is alll before making the number two overall pick in 2013.

One willing to use their thinking brain will hypothesize that this is clearly a farm system on the way up. It's deep, the pool is young, there's plenty of bonus babies from the past two amateur periods....Any logical reason why they won't be flying up farm rankings the next year or two? Tons of growth potential here.

YoungStuna
10-26-2012, 05:07 PM
Jesus i just read the longest post of my life. I need a gatorade or something.

:laugh:

I was too intimidated so I didn't even try

YoungStuna
10-26-2012, 05:13 PM
To the David Wright to Cubs rumor, just kill that dream because it's not happening. The Mets are going to sign him to an extension or at the very least pick up his option. Dickey on the other hand may get traded, but I doubt it for some reason.

My Mets prediction:

C-Nick Hundley
1B-Ike Davis
2B-Daniel Murphy
SS-Ruben Tejada
3B-David Wright
LF-Lucas Duda/Jason Bay
CF-Coco Crisp
RF-Kirk Nieuwenhuis/Reed Johnson

Dickey
Santana
Niese
Harvey
Gee

if Dickey is traded:

Santana
Niese
Harvey
Gee
Pelfrey/Wheeler

SenorGato
10-26-2012, 05:55 PM
To the David Wright to Cubs rumor, just kill that dream because it's not happening. The Mets are going to sign him to an extension or at the very least pick up his option. Dickey on the other hand may get traded, but I doubt it for some reason.

It was acknowledged from post 1 that it's an extreme long shot. Mark Reynolds was acknowledged as the far more likely acquisition.

I'm not breaking down that whole post. It's a bunch of repetition anyway on both sides but main points:


Free agency isn't a place to go construct a team.

This is unbelievably obvious to everyone. That is not what is happening. Signing BJ Upton, Mark Reynolds, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Correia, and a couple of relievers (JP Howell, Mark Lowe in particular) is not constructing a team. You are working the extremes because your argument depends on them, but no one is suggesting that those guys complete the roster. They inject real major league talent into a roster that desperately needs MLB talent. Just as it is foolish to build a roster completely through FAs, which you desperately try to characterize what I'm saying into, it is extremely foolish to sit back and wait for prospects to give the OK before adding some outside, veteran talent. Particularly veteran talent that isn't even 30.


This is a 70 win team on paper, are you going to be able to add 20 wins on this free agent market?

Yes, and the A's and Orioles were 100 loss teams on paper.


Adding B.J. Upton and David Wright would make the Cubs better in 2013.

Significantly better, and they would be better in 2014, 2015, and 2016 as well. That is what adding superior talent does. Also once again, BJ Upton has been a 3.9 WAR CF on average as a starter. That is significantly better than a 3 WAR CF, which is still perfectly fine.


You lose a draft pick (which you need all those you can get)

The 2013 draft does not depend on a second round pick. It is about the #2 overall pick, which gives the organization their third straight shot at a top tier amateur talent.


The team needs to be stronger with a stronger foundation before you get aggressive with compensatory free agents that are going to require more than 50 million dollars. Get Castro, Baez, Rizzo, Jackson and everyone to be a 80 win team (at least on paper, not necessarily in reality) before you worry about adding expensive pieces.

How do you plan to get Castro, Barney, Rizzo, and friends to an 80 win team? Magic? Who are the other 20+ players on the roster? Where are they coming from? They're *all* coming from the farm system, including the majority of starters? Why would I want to bring up Baez and everyone else into a losing environment and throw the expectations of not only adjusting to MLB life and competition but dragging the franchise up too? How is that in any way reasonable?


It isn't a specific amount.

Hey, there's a shock. At least you admit to it being completely arbitrary.


And it's crazy important for the future of the Cubs, especially with the second overall pick in this years draft. You could get a Justin Verlander in that pick, or you could get a Greg Reynolds. It's a very important moment for the Cubs as a franchise.

Yeah, and I'm pretty sure you don't take your eyes off of every avenue of talent for an event almost a year away. To even pretend that focusing on FAs and the offseason is somehow ignoring the draft is yet *another* ridiculous idea being tossed out.


Why not wait to add guys like Wright and Upton in a few years when the roster is ready to add those pieces?

Oh true, they can always go to the Wright and Upton tree and just pick it. Duh. Why didn't I think of that?


I am unaware how you have some keen understanding of the Cubs over how I might. Because I'm not an everyday Cubs fan, am I somehow unable to understand their organization and what things other baseball organizations have done to become successful that created this wildly condescending post?

From what's been written, yes. Sorry but you and I are thinking on two completely different levels as far as how to construct a roster as a major market franchise (and how to use FA) that is rebuilding, and there's no way I'm budging an inch on this.

Wow there was more...


It takes more than 3 years, you realize that....right?

No, I think the 2013 roster I put out is the only roster they can and will be able to put out for the next 5 years. You realize how just inane this logic you're using is, right?


Article from 3 days ago titled
"Win later: Theo looking to pass on big free agents"

An article title? From the Tribune? Oh man, I'm so wrong then.


Nice Strawman. I never said those things.

No, it's just heavily implied and easily can be viewed as the focal point in your argument. But now that you're changing your mind - good on you to acknowledge it does nothing to slow down the rebuild but rather it speeds it up and puts far less pressure on the extremely young talents on the roster to become superstars. It allows them mature naturally using the organization's vastly improved coaching and development, rather than feeling the need to come right in and be a superstar.


It is because they stopped developing minor league talent.

Lol, so then you admit it's not about the money they spent on MLB talent? Some progress at least...Now go ahead and try to make the argument that Hoyer making FA moves somehow stops them from producing farm talent like Baez, Almora, Soler, Paniagua, Johnson, and whoever else.


Tribune 3 days ago
“It kind of flashed out how great it would be playing baseball this time of year at Wrigley,” Epstein said. “That’s the goal, to get there in a way that allows us to do it year in and year out. You can’t help but look at what the Cardinals are doing, and the Giants now, and teams that are able to be factors in October year in and year out. ... There is urgency (to win), but that urgency will be paid back through hard work to get us there to stay. It won’t necessarily translate into a panic to get us there, or a shot at getting us there quicker, if it means a less healthy organization.”

Article from 3 days ago titled
"Win later: Theo looking to pass on big free agents"

None of this is proof that they won't make a move on FAs. Lol Epstein doesn't say anything towards it, and I gave you direct quotes from the GM of the franchise that they not only have the money to spend but that they actively worked to free up that money so that they can make some ML roster moves this offseason.

The big FAs are Hamilton and Greinke, not BJ Upton, Mark Reynolds, Francisco Liriano, and friends. None of those guys are getting the 100 million dollar deals that Hamilton and Greinke will get, and *those* are the kinds of deals the Cubs will be avoiding until the roster is more complete.

LASportsFan1996
10-26-2012, 07:54 PM
Jesus i just read the longest post of my life. I need a gatorade or something.

:laugh::laugh:

Kings Analyst
10-26-2012, 08:23 PM
Looks like a good, controllable group.

I don't know about a repeat, but it should be a .500 team at least.

Possibly, but then again people thought we'd lose a 100 games this year, so you never know. Anyways Beane still has decisions/moves to make including Gomes, Crisp, McCarthy, plus more. Our young pitchers have a year under their belt and most likely will be better plus our bullpen is extremely good, especially with Cook, Doolittle, Balfour.

WOwolfOL
10-26-2012, 09:50 PM
Gato is absolutely correct when he says we have to add talent when it's there. The Cubs are too starved of talent, especially pitching. They can't sell their fans a 4 year plan, Jeffy. That's the most important aspect. The Cubs' market will not allow for Theo Epstein, of all people, to come in, and take a half damn decade to deliver. I mean, hell, that's terrible. They can't just presume that all of the pieces will be there in FA when they finally need them.

They have to add pieces all the while, if they can. Not when they can.

WOwolfOL
10-26-2012, 09:51 PM
And BTW, this thread is pretty impressive, and the OP is a G for this one.

YoungStuna
10-26-2012, 09:54 PM
It was acknowledged from post 1 that it's an extreme long shot. Mark Reynolds was acknowledged as the far more likely acquisition.

It's not even an extreme long shot. There is a 0% chance that the Mets trade Wright to the Cubs, and <1% chance they trade him at all. The only way Wright becomes a Cub, is if the Mets fail to sign him to an extension and he just signs with you guys outright, but why would he sign with a terrible team? He might as well re-sign with the Mets.

SenorGato
10-26-2012, 10:07 PM
It's not even an extreme long shot. There is a 0% chance that the Mets trade Wright to the Cubs, and <1% chance they trade him at all. The only way Wright becomes a Cub, is if the Mets fail to sign him to an extension and he just signs with you guys outright, but why would he sign with a terrible team? He might as well re-sign with the Mets.

Why would the Cubs' chances to land Wright be less than other teams if he were to hit the market? Who *doesn't* want to be a Cub and be part of the team that brings winning baseball to the north side? It's the easiest sales pitch in sports at this point, especially given who is running the FO.

In the end, the Mets trade him to whoever offers the most for him if he gets traded at all. The Cubs will most certainly be in that conversation. Wright's a great player and that is the bar the FO is looking to set.

YoungStuna
10-26-2012, 11:31 PM
Why would the Cubs' chances to land Wright be less than other teams if he were to hit the market? Who *doesn't* want to be a Cub and be part of the team that brings winning baseball to the north side? It's the easiest sales pitch in sports at this point, especially given who is running the FO.

In the end, the Mets trade him to whoever offers the most for him if he gets traded at all. The Cubs will most certainly be in that conversation. Wright's a great player and that is the bar the FO is looking to set.

He won't hit the trade market though dude. They are absolutely not trading David Wright.

If you want him, hope that we don't re-sign him after this upcoming season.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 12:06 AM
Well yeah, my argument is that if there's a <1% chance that they trade him, then there's not a 0% chance they trade him to the Cubs.

YoungStuna
10-27-2012, 12:19 AM
Well yeah, my argument is that if there's a <1% chance that they trade him, then there's not a 0% chance they trade him to the Cubs.

I was being generous with less than 1%, he's not getting traded.

quinnjack
10-27-2012, 09:11 AM
And BTW, this thread is pretty impressive, and the OP is a G for this one.

Thanks, man.

NJBASEBALL22
10-27-2012, 09:52 AM
Any idea what kind of cash McCarthy is looking for????

Something like 36m over 4y soundabout right?

Like McCarthy and think he is very underrated... Groundball pitcher that is starting to K ppl... watch out. He'd be perfect in pinstripes.

Actually nevermind... doesnt look like he isan FA until after next season.

ilovesports
10-27-2012, 10:14 AM
Can we edit the thread title to say you must only reply in 1000 words or more?

And agreed the op is a boss for the effort!

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 02:35 PM
It was acknowledged from post 1 that it's an extreme long shot. Mark Reynolds was acknowledged as the far more likely acquisition.

I'm not breaking down that whole post. It's a bunch of repetition anyway on both sides but main points:



This is unbelievably obvious to everyone. That is not what is happening. Signing BJ Upton, Mark Reynolds, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Correia, and a couple of relievers (JP Howell, Mark Lowe in particular) is not constructing a team. You are working the extremes because your argument depends on them, but no one is suggesting that those guys complete the roster. They inject real major league talent into a roster that desperately needs MLB talent. Just as it is foolish to build a roster completely through FAs, which you desperately try to characterize what I'm saying into, it is extremely foolish to sit back and wait for prospects to give the OK before adding some outside, veteran talent. Particularly veteran talent that isn't even 30.



Yes, and the A's and Orioles were 100 loss teams on paper.

Neither were in fact


Significantly better, and they would be better in 2014, 2015, and 2016 as well. That is what adding superior talent does. Also once again, BJ Upton has been a 3.9 WAR CF on average as a starter. That is significantly better than a 3 WAR CF, which is still perfectly fine.

They are going to be better when these guys are aging?


The 2013 draft does not depend on a second round pick. It is about the #2 overall pick, which gives the organization their third straight shot at a top tier amateur talent.

This isn't the NBA or the NFL. Baseball is about having strong depth in the draft top to bottom. Not about drafting an individual superstar. The 33rd overall pick is a big deal.



How do you plan to get Castro, Barney, Rizzo, and friends to an 80 win team? Magic? Who are the other 20+ players on the roster? Where are they coming from? They're *all* coming from the farm system, including the majority of starters? Why would I want to bring up Baez and everyone else into a losing environment and throw the expectations of not only adjusting to MLB life and competition but dragging the franchise up too? How is that in any way reasonable?
Development.

It isn't magic, it's development.




Hey, there's a shock. At least you admit to it being completely arbitrary.
And I'm done talking any further with you, you are being wildly condescending and for absolutely no reason. I'm done and not going any further


Summary:

The Cubs will not, and should not be adding free agents that receive qualifying offers.

The Cubs are no where close to being good enough and they are not in a position to win.



Gato is absolutely correct when he says we have to add talent when it's there. The Cubs are too starved of talent, especially pitching. They can't sell their fans a 4 year plan, Jeffy. That's the most important aspect. The Cubs' market will not allow for Theo Epstein, of all people, to come in, and take a half damn decade to deliver. I mean, hell, that's terrible. They can't just presume that all of the pieces will be there in FA when they finally need them.

They have to add pieces all the while, if they can. Not when they can.

I understand and appreciate the need to win, but you can't abandon a rebuilding project for an opportunity to win in one season. This team needs to be built for the long run.



Why would the Cubs' chances to land Wright be less than other teams if he were to hit the market? Who *doesn't* want to be a Cub and be part of the team that brings winning baseball to the north side? It's the easiest sales pitch in sports at this point, especially given who is running the FO.

In the end, the Mets trade him to whoever offers the most for him if he gets traded at all. The Cubs will most certainly be in that conversation. Wright's a great player and that is the bar the FO is looking to set.

You are fairly naive about how the Cubs are viewed. They lost 101 games this season, who the hell would want to go there unless it's an opportunity to start over an opportunity they would not have else where. The Cubs are known for losing, their facilities are the most depleted, and there isn't a sign that the Cubs are going to be any better next season. The only bright side is that it is in Chicago, and the Cubs can pay a lot for an individual.

No way Wright leaves the Mets, but if he did....it wouldn't be for the Cubs. Think Angels, Dodgers, O's, etc. A team with a healthy chance to win next season and the year after and has a need at third base and the money to lock him up. Regardless, he will be a Met for life.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 02:40 PM
Gato is absolutely correct when he says we have to add talent when it's there. The Cubs are too starved of talent, especially pitching. They can't sell their fans a 4 year plan, Jeffy. That's the most important aspect. The Cubs' market will not allow for Theo Epstein, of all people, to come in, and take a half damn decade to deliver. I mean, hell, that's terrible. They can't just presume that all of the pieces will be there in FA when they finally need them.

They have to add pieces all the while, if they can. Not when they can.

They allow it in NY with the Mets, why not with the Cubs who have a history of being perennial losers?

Even more so than the Mets..

Epstein will get ample time to turn that team around and i am sure he will.

YoungStuna
10-27-2012, 02:46 PM
New York City has 3x as many people than Chicago so it's the much larger and more important market.

Our payroll is a disgrace.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 02:47 PM
No way Wright leaves the Mets, but if he did....it wouldn't be for the Cubs. Think Angels, Dodgers, O's, etc. A team with a healthy chance to win next season and the year after and has a need at third base and the money to lock him up. Regardless, he will be a Met for life.

This..

It will only be a team who is willing to pay market or more than market value and who is in position to win now if he leaves.

This is different from the Reyes situation, the Mets looked at him as expendable if they couldn't get him for the money they wanted him for.

Wright is the face and the leader of the franchise and not signing him just sends an unbelievably horrible message to the fans.

They've been sending enough of those messages the last 3 years.

I think the Wilpons and Sandy understand this is a completely different beast.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 02:49 PM
New York City has 3x as many people than Chicago so it's the much larger and more important market.

Our payroll is a disgrace.

Yeah but their attendance trumps ours and again will next year.

Cubs fans still show up religiously regardless of how bad the team is, they've bought into that "Lovable Loser" moniker hard even though obviously i am sure they would love to win.

With Met fans that doesn't fly.

Attendance will continue to drop if the Mets continue to suck.

abe_froman
10-27-2012, 03:01 PM
Gato is absolutely correct when he says we have to add talent when it's there. The Cubs are too starved of talent, especially pitching. They can't sell their fans a 4 year plan, Jeffy. That's the most important aspect. The Cubs' market will not allow for Theo Epstein, of all people, to come in, and take a half damn decade to deliver. I mean, hell, that's terrible. They can't just presume that all of the pieces will be there in FA when they finally need them.

They have to add pieces all the while, if they can. Not when they can.

of course they can.the cubs arent the yankees that make much of their money off bandwagoners and are expected to compete for a title every year.there have been more than enough 100 loss seasons ,over 100 years without a title ,with fans still coming in a record numbers every year to show that "rebuilding" wont affect fan support.losing doesnt matter,hell its expected much of the time.so they can take all the time they want and still have no dropoff to warrent change of plans.

and they have a rich owner who knew/knows that it'll be a tough but things have to be done the right way(i've seen enough interviews with him where he admits it),and who has put all his faith in theo to save them and committed to whatever he wants to do

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 03:08 PM
IIRC Cubs have been having their lowest attendances of the past ten years in the last three. People want a winning team, and not starting five years from now because prospects.

abe_froman
10-27-2012, 03:12 PM
IIRC Cubs have been having their lowest attendances of the past ten years in the last three. People want a winning team, and five years from now because prospects.

they're lowest attendance is still top 10 every year and no they're right in line,its always hovering around 3 mil every year

i get the desire of some who are tired of watching the losing,wanting to be in the winner convo.i respect that,losing sucks..it hurts.but its not going to change plans that they have set.it'll be tough,it has been.but you'll get there,dont worry

TooMutch14
10-27-2012, 03:17 PM
As a Twins fan I really really hope Pavano's not in the rotation. And no Maicer either, need more pitching

TooMutch14
10-27-2012, 03:17 PM
but i know you were just bored lol so i'll let it slide :P

Vintage
10-27-2012, 03:19 PM
After reviewing this carefully, some of the moves here make me scratch my head big time.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 03:45 PM
they're lowest attendance is still top 10 every year and no they're right in line,its always hovering around 3 mil every year

i get the desire of some who are tired of watching the losing,wanting to be in the winner convo.i respect that,losing sucks..it hurts.but its not going to change plans that they have set.it'll be tough,it has been.but you'll get there,dont worry

So? It's still lower. It's not just about being in the winning convo, it's that it should not take so long to put a competent product on the field. It's nothing more complicated than that. I'm not eve worried about getting there because I know we will, it's more the internet conversation of how they *should* do it. The avoid FA like the plague except for Paul Maholms and David DeJesuses and wait for prospects strategy is as horribly inefficient as piling up long term FA deals.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 04:01 PM
You are fairly naive about how the Cubs are viewed. They lost 101 games this season, who the hell would want to go there unless it's an opportunity to start over an opportunity they would not have else where. The Cubs are known for losing, their facilities are the most depleted, and there isn't a sign that the Cubs are going to be any better next season. The only bright side is that it is in Chicago, and the Cubs can pay a lot for an individual.

And most were very wrong about the 2012 A's and O's were viewed, how the 2008 Rays were viewed....Who cares how they're viewed? This is about how not to be viewed that way. While the Cubs require some effort (really? It's not easy? Dammit then I'm wrong!) they are not some decade project that will lag behind for all of Epstein's 5 year deal. Their job isn't just stack prospects because Future.

Signs the Cubs will be better next season:

Castro will be another year older, a 4th year player at 23. He finished the season very strong, and showed significantly better patience in the second half under Rowson.
Rizzo will be playing his first full season and was a significantly improved player during his second callup to the majors.
The infield trio of Rizzo, Barney, and Castro is a strong defensive infield and a major improvement over LaHair, Barney, and a younger more raw Castro.
The coaching staff improved the defense as a whole.
Samardzija will pitch a full season.
Garza will be back.
Wood showed some competence as a backend starter last year and has his experience to gain from.
No more Volstad.
The team has saved 80 million in the past two+ years and has the flexibility to add major league talent.
The team has spent 60+ million in the past two years on amateur talent and now has some flexibility to make some deal for better, more ML pieces.

Signs the Cubs won't be better:

They were bad in 2012.


No way Wright leaves the Mets, but if he did....it wouldn't be for the Cubs. Think Angels, Dodgers, O's, etc. A team with a healthy chance to win next season and the year after and has a need at third base and the money to lock him up. Regardless, he will be a Met for life.

1. Cubs are just as legitimate an option as those teams and the etc. Insistence is not proof otherwise.

2. The Cubs, with Wright, have a healthy chance of doing some damage in 2013, 2014, 2015, and beyond. Period. It's really not a complicated thought process. You get to be a good team by having good players, and there is not just one single way to get good players before you're allowed to use the more monetarily expensive route.

3. You keep going back to Wright when it's long established that I consider him a long shot and that Reynolds might even make more sense. You need Wright for your argument, I don't. He's one player, even if he's a great player, and there's other avenues they can take that might not have the upside or longevity but can make them better in 2013 and maybe even help in 2014 somehow.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 04:08 PM
1. Cubs are just as legitimate an option as those teams and the etc. Insistence is not proof otherwise.

2. The Cubs, with Wright, have a healthy chance of doing some damage in 2013, 2014, 2015, and beyond. Period. It's really not a complicated thought process. You get to be a good team by having good players, and there is not just one single way to get good players before you're allowed to use the more monetarily expensive route.


Wright is gonna want to go a team who can win now, he's done enough losing in NY that his priority will be to win as soon as possible if he doesn't sign with his boyhood team.

Can the Cubs pay him market value? Yeah but so can a list of other teams that are ready to win much sooner.

Again your point about Wright is really irrelevant, he is not leaving the Mets either way.

They will re-sign him at most likely all costs and if that consists of trading RA Dickey to do so they will do that too.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 04:09 PM
This isn't the NBA or the NFL. Baseball is about having strong depth in the draft top to bottom. Not about drafting an individual superstar. The 33rd overall pick is a big deal.


Not being the NBA or NFL draft is all the more reason the second round pick is of less value. 2nd round picks in the NBA or NFL actually can see the field and start maybe even as rookies.

If you get one superstar out of any sport's draft that draft is a win, so there's another place we disagree. The #2 overall pick is far, far, far more likely to land a superstar than even the #3 pick, let alone some second round pick. There's a reason the baseball draft is 50 rounds deep and not 2 or 7 like the NFL and NBA. That reason is that it is not so easy to find guys who are starter caliber in the MLB draft (which is why this is the sport with the largest minor leagues) past the first round. .

The Cubs will not pass on a starting caliber talent in their prime like a BJ Upton because of the #33 overall pick. That player has far more value than the opportunity to draft and coach yet another prospect, of which the Cubs have many they just drafted or signed and need heavy coaching. If the Twins can give up their second round pick for Josh Willingham and still outspend everyone in the draft, then the Cubs can do it too.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 04:16 PM
Yeah, I'm starting to get the feeling that you guys just can't get over that I said David Wright. Let it go. It has been admitted multiple times, even in the post that launched this conversation, that Wright is an extreme long shot. What I want the Cubs to do does not hover around Wright, who would cost both organizational talent in the form of prospects as well as an extension. If he's available then great, they'll go after him. Since it's likely he isn't then hello Mark Reynolds or Eric Chavez or someone not Wright. It's not a hang up, and the idea that he's not an easy get is an easily acceptable one.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 04:25 PM
Not being the NBA or NFL draft is all the more reason the second round pick is of less value. 2nd round picks in the NBA or NFL actually can see the field and start maybe even as rookies.


Some Noteable 2nd round picks:
Kipnis, Giancarlo Stanton, Jordan Zimmerman, Freddie Freeman, Zach Cozart, Trevor Cahill, Jon Jay, Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson, Chris Tillman, Yunel Escobar, Chase Headley, Dustin Pedroia, Hunter Pence, Yovanni Gallardo, Kurt Suzuki, Andre Ethier, Scott Baker, Joey Votto, Jon Lester, Brian McCann, Jonahthan Broxton, Dan Haren, JJ Hardy, Joel Hanrahan, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Ludwick, Adam Dunn, Brandon Inge, Chase Utley, Randy Wolf, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Beltran, Jarrod Washburn, Sean Casey, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen, Jeff Suppan, Todd Helton, Jason Giambi, Arthur Rhodes, Albert Belle, Kevin Tapani, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Al Leiter, Barry Bonds, Barry Larkin, David Wells.....shall I go on?



If you get one superstar out of any sport's draft that draft is a win, so there's another place we disagree. The #2 overall pick is far, far, far more likely to land a superstar than even the #3 pick, let alone some second round pick. There's a reason the baseball draft is 50 rounds deep and not 2 or 7 like the NFL and NBA. That reason is that it is not so easy to find guys who are starter caliber in the MLB draft (which is why this is the sport with the largest minor leagues) past the first round. .
We are not, and never were comparing the second overall pick to the second round pick.

But you are forfeiting the second round pick by signing a guy that receives a qualifying offer, and you are a rebuilding team.



The Cubs will not pass on a starting caliber talent in their prime like a BJ Upton because of the #33 overall pick. That player has far more value than the opportunity to draft and coach yet another prospect, of which the Cubs have many they just drafted or signed and need heavy coaching. If the Twins can give up their second round pick for Josh Willingham and still outspend everyone in the draft, then the Cubs can do it too.

Josh Willingham didn't cost the Twins a draft pick, they drafted Jose Berrios with the 32nd overall pick last year.

That's why the signed him and let Michael Cuddyer go (or part of the reason) because Cuddyer netted them an additional spec.

LakersA's49ers
10-27-2012, 04:33 PM
Athletics

C: Derek Norris/George Kottaras PLATOON
1B: Brandon Moss/Chris Carter PLATOON
2B: Jemile Weeks/Scott Sizemore Depending on ST results
SS: Stephen Drew(If Resigned)
3B: Josh Donaldson
LF: Yoenis Cespedes
CF: Chris Young I believe Coco will be traded
RF: Josh Reddick
DH: Chris Carter/Jonny Gomes(If Resigned)

SP: Brett Anderson/Brandon McCarthy/Jarrod Parker/Tom Milone/AJ Griffin

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 05:12 PM
Yes, you can draft and find great draft talents in the entire history of the second round. It's also true (http://baseballanalysts.com/wardraft4.gif) that you are far more likely to get a talent with the #2 overall pick than the #33 pick. Losing 101 games was not about the #33 pick in the draft, and the draft is not just about depth (ESPECIALLY for a rebuilding franchise).


We are not, and never were comparing the second overall pick to the second round pick.


No, but we are talking about the #33 overall pick. I am addressing it's value. It's not so valuable that the Cubs will miss it if the pick is forfeited to sign a prime aged starter at a premium position of need like BJ Upton.


But you are forfeiting the second round pick by signing a guy that receives a qualifying offer, and you are a rebuilding team.


Rebuilding teams need impact talent, which the #2 pick is far more likely to offer than subsequent picks, not just depth. The Cubs have spent 60+ million building depth in the minors for the past 3 years.

You are right about the Twins pick. So there's that.

The rest of that piece the graph is from can be found here:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/the_draft_and_w.php


In conclusion, the following things can be said:

1) The first few draft picks are worth vastly more than later picks - a fact that is becoming more and more true as time goes by.

That is why losing 101 games for a top 3 pick is not significant. It is not because of a higher second round slot, though that is nice. The Cubs will pick at 2 for every other round, including the 11th, the round Hunter Virant (a borderline first round talent) fell to last year amongst others.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 05:15 PM
Yes, you can draft and find great draft talents in the entire history of the second round. It's also true (http://baseballanalysts.com/wardraft4.gif) that you are far more likely to get a talent with the #2 overall pick than the #33 pick. Losing 101 games was not about the #33 pick in the draft, and the draft is not just about depth (ESPECIALLY for a rebuilding franchise).



No, but we are talking about the #33 overall pick. I am addressing it's value. It's not so valuable that the Cubs will miss it if the pick is forfeited to sign a prime aged starter at a premium position of need like BJ Upton.
The value of the 33rd overall pick is about 4 million dollars. Maybe that's a small price to you, but a rebuilding team desperately needs every pick they can get.


It's pretty crazy for a team as the Cubs to not care about the 33rd overall pick.

quinnjack
10-27-2012, 05:22 PM
After reviewing this carefully, some of the moves here make me scratch my head big time.

Feel free to share specifics.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 05:28 PM
The value of the 33rd overall pick is about 4 million dollars. Maybe that's a small price to you, but a rebuilding team desperately needs every pick they can get.


It's pretty crazy for a team as the Cubs to not care about the 33rd overall pick.

What is that 4 million number based on? It's certainly not the slot price. You just threw out a number, left it completely without context, and claimed it as the true value. Not only that, but you're right in that this is a small number in this contextless state, and most likely stays that way if you add any context. The *fact* is that the top of the draft is where the best talent is, not the top of the second round, and tanking a season is about the #2 overall pick and not the #33 pick.

It's pretty crazy to overvalue a draft pick that much and pass up on actual prime aged ML talent for it.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 05:35 PM
What is that 4 million number based on? It's certainly not the slot price.

It's pretty crazy to overvalue a draft pick that much and pass up on actual prime aged ML talent for it.

It's based on the value of how often that player actually turns into a marquee player, and the net value that player attributes on average vs the rest of the draft picks.

I.e. you draft an eventual 20 WAR player in that spot over his first 6 years in the bigs vs the probability that you get nothing there.


And you are paying a player like Upton to take the place over a guy like Jackson who has the upside to do exactly what Upton is currently capable of doing, and passing on that draft pick, and paying Upton to get older on your roster and paying him his max value and he is joining a losing team.

The draft pick and his upside is more valuable than B.J. Upton to the Cubs.


The *fact* is that the top of the draft is where the best talent is, not the top of the second round, and tanking a season is about the #2 overall pick and not the #33 pick.
I never said any of that, you really need to stop strawmanning.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 05:42 PM
It's based on the value of how often that player actually turns into a marquee player, and the net value that player attributes on average vs the rest of the draft picks.

I.e. you draft an eventual 20 WAR player in that spot over his first 6 years in the bigs vs the probability that you get nothing there.


And you are paying a player like Upton to take the place over a guy like Jackson who has the upside to do exactly what Upton is currently capable of doing, and passing on that draft pick, and paying Upton to get older on your roster and paying him his max value and he is joining a losing team.

The draft pick and his upside is more valuable than B.J. Upton to the Cubs.

Holy crap are you overrating the crap out of Brett Jackson. Upton is not taking his place. Jackson's place is in AAA figuring out how not to strike out in 1/3 of his PAs at that level of pro ball. The guy came up from THAT and struck out 59 times in 142 major league PAs. That's a starter? I know you really wish and dream and hope the Cubs become good, but it's thought processes like that that will stop them from being good. Brett Jackson is not anywhere near a viable starter right now, let alone even close to a BJ Upton, who is a very good major league CFer in his prime.


Brett Jackson MIGHT be a similar player to BJ Upton if everything goes right for him moving forward. Most likely, he doesn't make enough contact to become that or even a viable starting caliber major leaguer. From that point, we're then looking at a guy who would be lucky to turn into a David DeJesus floating 2 WAR OFer type, let alone BJ Upton.

The Cubs will be paying BJ Upton to be the ~4 WAR CFer he's been in his pre-prime and early prime years for a high level team in a tough hitting environment. Getting older is part of living, that is not something anyone gets paid for.

Also, just admit the 4 million was made up. Based on the likeliness that that player turns into a marquee player? You priced a probability? And that's how you explained it? I've already delivered you the numbers that state a 20+ WAR player is *far* more likely to be found at the top of the draft than at pick 33. It's not even a contest, this is a fact. The #33 pick is not stopping any FA signings, period.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 05:46 PM
@senorgato

Do you remember in 2011 when the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford?

Everyone was complaining how unfair that was to the Tampa Bay Rays because the Rays couldn't afford to keep Crawford.

Not me. The Rays were excited. They got two draft picks, including the Red Sox first rounder, and they got to put Desmond Jennings in his place. Not only did the move end up helping the Rays beat the Red Sox by one game for the wild card, but it also netted the Rays two B level prospects in Taylor Guerrieri (pre-season 5th best spec for the Rays) and Tyler Goeddel (pre-season 13th best spec for the Rays).

You are better off letting another team take up on Upton, his salary, and pay him to decline and having a potential B level prospect join your farm system and letting Brett Jackson play every day. Far better off. These are the kinds of moves that build dynasties. You aren't going to be competitive in 2013, or likely in 2014. You need a farm system, badly. And passing on the 33rd overall draft pick for a .750 OPS CFer is dangerously risky and very unlikely to help the organization. Upton could be a helpful piece, but these are the kinds of moves that keep an organization in a constant rebuilding cycle. You need to rebuild, and rebuild only until this organization is developed and capable of winning with their own internal pieces. Then you can add free agents to win-now because your internal pieces are there to be your core for the future.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 05:48 PM
The draft pick and his upside is more valuable than B.J. Upton to the Cubs.



I never said any of that, you really need to stop strawmanning.


Ummm....Yeah.

The numbers are there, they support what I am saying about the #33 pick, and your insistence otherwise is taking that nowhere. You have no facts, just highly unsupported opinion and that has the value of any other unsupported opinion out there that is being directly contradicted by the facts of the situation.

That #33 pick does not have the same value to the Cubs that signing a BJ Upton would, period. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 05:56 PM
Holy crap are you overrating the crap out of Brett Jackson. Upton is not taking his place. Jackson's place is in AAA figuring out how not to strike out in 1/3 of his PAs at that level of pro ball. The guy came up from THAT and struck out 59 times in 142 major league PAs. That's a starter?
It didn't hurt Austin Jackson and his development. Striking out nearly 30% of the time in his first 2 seasons of pro ball. But if he can post a .700 OPS and play neutral defense in center in 2013, he will be worth it. Again, his projections post him to create 60 runs in center next season at the big league level. That's worth having and developing at this level. He doesn't have much to learn in AAA, considering his .800+ OPS there last season. He is ready, but he needs to be given the playing time, and probably be limited against lefites, considering he is awful against them at this point (.215 wOBA, 26 wRC+), but he is more than capable against righties, and was actually an above league average hitter for his position against them last year. He needs to be playing at this level in order to get better.


I know you really wish and dream and hope the Cubs become good, but it's thought processes like that that will stop them from being good. Brett Jackson is not anywhere near a viable starter right now, let alone even close to a BJ Upton, who is a very good major league CFer in his prime.
My thought process is exactly what has made the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers into dynasties.

Upton is a 2.5 rWAR CFer, something that Jackson can be as quickly as next season.



The Cubs will be paying BJ Upton to be the ~4 WAR CFer he's been in his pre-prime and early prime years for a high level team in a tough hitting environment. Getting older is part of living, that is not something anyone gets paid for.
You realize that Upton has always been a league average hitter in his career, and a slightly below league average defensive center fielder throughout his career.

fWAR is heavily in love with UZR, and that won't tell you much. He is a 2.5 rWAR CFer, which is more than replaceable.

2012
Upton
76 Runs Created
-4 Defensive Runs Saved
+2.5 Runs for positional adjustment
+4.0 Runs for baserunning
= 78.5 Runs created for Upton

Jackson's projection for 2013 is 70.

Is Upton worth the 33rd overall pick, 13-15 million in salary, and a commitment to him for the following 4 seasons worth the 8.5 runs you gain on a last place team?


Also, just admit the 4 million was made up.
No, because it's not. It's consistently spoken about. Sorry you have never heard of it. And quit being a ******* in your posts over stuff you don't understand. It's unbecoming.


Based on the likeliness that that player turns into a marquee player? You priced a probability? And that's how you explained it? I've already delivered you the numbers that state a 20+ WAR player is *far* more likely to be found at the top of the draft than at pick 33. It's not even a contest, this is a fact. The #33 pick is not stopping any FA signings, period.

Again, I never said that, so why the hell do you keep saying it and arguing it? That's a strawman, stop it. You are making up an argument, dismissing it, and saying I was wrong. I never even stated the argument, so stop.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 06:02 PM
Ummm....Yeah.

The numbers are there, they support what I am saying about the #33 pick, and your insistence otherwise is taking that nowhere. You have no facts, just highly unsupported opinion and that has the value of any other unsupported opinion out there that is being directly contradicted by the facts of the situation.

That #33 pick does not have the same value to the Cubs that signing a BJ Upton would, period. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.


By all means, go ahead. Take Upton, give the Rays the 33rd overall pick (they'll appreciate it) and watch how this move, as likened to several other moves, is consistent with why the Cubs have continued to suck for decades. You have to BUILD this organization if you want to be competitive, and you are trying to skip it. Go ahead, I don't really care that much what the Cubs do, but a move l like signing Upton (assuming he does get a qualifying offer of course) is an example of what keeps the Cubs a last place team. Until the organization commits to a long, thorough rebuilding process, they are going to be a last place team with a few seasons as good as .500 and then falling back to last. You have to develop the organization, you can't just skip ahead. It's what the Cubs have always tried to do, and it has never worked.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 06:03 PM
@senorgato


Do you remember in 2011 when the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford?

No.


Everyone was complaining how unfair that was to the Tampa Bay Rays because the Rays couldn't afford to keep Crawford.

Not I. It's a part of life as a poor team. They lose star talent. It's their job to overcome that somehow, just like big market teams have to figure out how to manage expensive rosters.


Not me. The Rays were excited. They got two draft picks, including the Red Sox first rounder, and they got to put Desmond Jennings in his place. Not only did the move end up helping the Rays beat the Red Sox by one game for the wild card, but it also netted the Rays two B level prospects in Taylor Guerrieri (pre-season 5th best spec for the Rays) and Tyler Goeddel (pre-season 13th best spec for the Rays).

Congrats to them. They're very good at being a poor team.



You are better off letting another team take up on Upton, his salary, and pay him to decline and having a potential B level prospect join your farm system and letting Brett Jackson play every day. Far better off.

No. No, they are not better off let alone far better off. Brett Jackson is historically bad at not being able to make contact with a baseball. He is striking out in 1/3 of his AAA PAs. That is not a major league starter, period.


These are the kinds of moves that build dynasties.


Total Rays WS rings: 0.


You aren't going to be competitive in 2013, or likely in 2014.

Says you, who seems to be fond of delivering narratives about nothing and unsupported opinions on stuff. I'll pass on buying that.


You need a farm system, badly.


You *might* know the basics of the Cubs current farm system, and you have a very basic mentality on how to utilize a farm system anyway. The Cubs have plenty of young talent to develop, and will be adding more with the #2 overall pick next year. What they need is major league talent.


And passing on the 33rd overall draft pick for a .750 OPS CFer is dangerously risky and very unlikely to help the organization. Upton could be a helpful piece, but these are the kinds of moves that keep an organization in a constant rebuilding cycle.


********. Starting Brett Jackson when Brett Jackson isn't even hitting AAA pitching is what keeps organizations in a perpetual rebuild.

BJ Upton has hit 51 HRs in the past 2 seasons as a CF. He's averaged 39 steals in 51 attempts (76%) per 162, and stolen 67 bases in 85 (79%) in his past two years. He's smacked 56 doubles and 7 3Bs in that time, and a .197 IsoSLG to go with a career .081 IsoOBP. This is the profile of a player with a very strong, projectable offensive game. There is no *could* be helpful in this, this is a very valuable, prime aged, premium positioned player.

These are the kind of moves smart organizations make when looking to add talent to the major league roster, which is the goal of the Cubs organization.


You need to rebuild, and rebuild only until this organization is developed and capable of winning with their own internal pieces. Then you can add free agents to win-now because your internal pieces are there to be your core for the future.

They ARE rebuilding, and rebuilding is not just about prospects. You don't get that, and that is fine and dandy for you, but it's incredibly naive to put so much faith into completely unproven talents.

You add talent when and where there is talent to be added. There is no time table. Stop insisting on this particularly since you cannot get *any* more specific of an answer than this when asked directly about how much talent is necessary before making a move.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 06:13 PM
It didn't hurt Austin Jackson and his development.

This is just getting sad.

Austin Jackson was 21/22 when he hit AAA. Brett Jackson was 23 for his time in AAA.

Austin Jackson K'd in 22% of his AAA PAs. Brett Jackson at 23, oh and in the PCL of all leagues, K'd in ~33% of his total AAA appearances.

Austin Jackson hit .300/.354/.405 as a 22 year old in AAA. Brett Jackson .269/.353/.502. So we're talking a high K guy who hit .300 vs. an extremely high K guy who hit .270. Oh, and the latter was 1.5 years older and in the biggest offensive league in the minors.

Austin Jackson peaked his K rate at 27% in 2011 with the Tigers, as a 24 year old. He had put up a 25% K rate as a .329 wOBA starting rookie in 2010. The last time Brett Jackson had a K rate as low as 27% was AA ball in early 2011.

Just stop it with the Brett Jackson nonsense. He's not starting next year, it's already been stated by the FO, and if he is worthy then bye bye David DeJesus. He's not stopping any OF acquisitions, and there is no rational reason he should.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 06:16 PM
It's truly amazing that you keep calling my arguments strawman when the best you've got is "signing BJ Upton is like signing Carl Crawford," "the #33 pick is worth 4 million just because and BJ Upton isn't worth that," and "the Cubs are rebuilding and rebuilding means only prospects."

It's going nowhere. You're not putting a dent into what I'm saying, and I'm not buying a word of what you're insisting.

I hope the Rays will enjoy the #33 pick if the Cubs sign Upton. There's no f'n animosity over it. They get what they need to survive, the Cubs get what they want to push their rebuild forward and add talent around Castro and friends.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 06:17 PM
@senorgato



No.



Not I. It's a part of life as a poor team. They lose star talent. It's their job to overcome that somehow, just like big market teams have to figure out how to manage expensive rosters.



Congrats to them. They're very good at being a poor team.




No. No, they are not better off let alone far better off. Brett Jackson is historically bad at not being able to make contact with a baseball. He is striking out in 1/3 of his AAA PAs. That is not a major league starter, period.
Strike outs haven't been the way to measure a player offensively since 1932.




Total Rays WS rings: 0.

Great critical thinking with this response. Reminds me of the Moneyball doesn't work in the playoffs thread.

The Rays have 458 wins in the last 5 seasons, 3rd most in baseball (behind the Phillies and Yankees)

They are a dynasty.



You *might* know the basics of the Cubs current farm system, and you have a very basic mentality on how to utilize a farm system anyway. The Cubs have plenty of young talent to develop, and will be adding more with the #2 overall pick next year. What they need is major league talent.

Which you can have by developing it.


********. Starting Brett Jackson when Brett Jackson isn't even hitting AAA pitching is what keeps organizations in a perpetual rebuild.

Usually when a 23 year old posts a .354 wOBA, 107 wRC+ in AAA in a full season after posting a .400 wOBA, and a 128 wRC+ with good defense at an empty position on the big league roster, he gets promoted.
When was he not hitting in AAA?


BJ Upton has hit 51 HRs in the past 2 seasons as a CF. He's averaged 39 steals in 51 attempts (76%) per 162, and stolen 67 bases in 85 (79%) in his past two years. He's smacked 56 doubles and 7 3Bs in that time, and a .197 IsoSLG to go with a career .081 IsoOBP. This is the profile of a player with a very strong, projectable offensive game. There is no *could* be helpful in this, this is a very valuable, prime aged, premium positioned player.

And he has 7.2 rWAR over the last 4 seasons.

Have fun paying him 60+ million to give you that.


These are the kind of moves smart organizations make when looking to add talent to the major league roster, which is the goal of the Cubs organization.


Do you see the Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers doing these moves? None of the three teams that are consistently ahead of the Cubs in the standings every year do any of these moves. None of them. What smart baseball organizations have had a 61 win team, and went out and signed qualifying offer free agents and turned it around? None. Because it doesn't work.

Hell the Marlins just went and spent a quarter of billion on free agents in one off-season and didn't improve (in fact, they won 3 less games). Because it doesn't work. Same with the Tigers (won 7 less games, sure they are in the WS, but that's not because of Prince), and the Angels (and they added a 10 WAR CFer). And the latter two teams were good teams at least when they added expensive pieces.


They ARE rebuilding, and rebuilding is not just about prospects. You don't get that, and that is fine and dandy for you, but it's incredibly naive to put so much faith into completely unproven talents.
It's what you HAVE to do. I realize you don't like it, but it's what you have to do. The Cubs have absolutely no depth. All they have is a few bright spots. The team needs to be built from the ground up.


You add talent when and where there is talent to be added. There is no time table. Stop insisting on this particularly since you cannot get *any* more specific of an answer than this when asked directly about how much talent is necessary before making a move.

Because there is no such thing as a magical number!

You are insisting finite information for an argument to be discredited, something that can never be done.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 06:19 PM
It's truly amazing that you keep calling my arguments strawman when the best you've got is "signing BJ Upton is like signing Carl Crawford," "the #33 pick is worth 4 million just because and BJ Upton isn't worth that," and "the Cubs are rebuilding and rebuilding means only prospects."

It's going nowhere. You're not putting a dent into what I'm saying, and I'm not buying a word of what you're insisting.

Do you know what a strawman is?


And if you think you just summarized my argument with your first paragraph, then I can understand why your 'not buying it' because it's obvious you haven't read it.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 06:38 PM
Strike outs haven't been the way to measure a player offensively since 1932.


Um, Brett Jackson isn't a major league baseball player. He's a prospect in AAA. If he was putting up .260/.340/.480 for the Cubs that would be amazing. He didn't even put that up in AAA this year. This is simple.


Do you know what a strawman is?

A word you keep parroting because you have no stronger argument here? Your arguments, as summarized previously?


And if you think you just summarized my argument with your first paragraph, then I can understand why your 'not buying it' because it's obvious you haven't read it.

It's a pretty accurate summary.

Here I'll keep playing:


And he has 7.2 rWAR over the last 4 seasons.

Have fun paying him 60+ million to give you that.

Will do, and he's had 14 fWAR in his past 4 years, and fWAR is generally accepted as the most predictive stat. On top of that, he's averaged 3.9 fWAR as a starter, and those numbers I put forward have plenty of predictive value (speed, power, patience are kind of a big deal for offense). Not to mention offensively he's been worth 9.7 rWAR over the past 3 years sooooo...there goes that.



Great critical thinking with this response. Reminds me of the Moneyball doesn't work in the playoffs thread.

The Rays have 458 wins in the last 5 seasons, 3rd most in baseball (behind the Phillies and Yankees)

They are a dynasty.

Your standards for dynasties suck. They are a very good major league team that does a great deal to stay competitive despite their low payroll. The Cubs do not operate on their level, and in fact can operate closer to how the Yankees and Phillies have and do operate. Critical thinking my balls....Don't label things they're not - you've spent this whole time doing it and I've yet to see a truly competent argument come of it.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 06:54 PM
Um, Brett Jackson isn't a major league baseball player. He's a prospect in AAA. If he was putting up .260/.340/.480 for the Cubs that would be amazing. He didn't even put that up in AAA this year. This is simple.
So you represent his AAA slash line as a 'if he did this in the MLB it would be amazing' and then dismiss it by saying, 'he didn't even put that up in AAA this year. This is simple.'

Do you see that, do you see how you are arguing?



A word you keep parroting because you have no stronger argument here.

I'm no longer worried about my argument lol. You have long given up trying to read and understand it, so there's really no point.

A strawman is simple to explain.

A strawman is taking my argument, but instead of refuting my statement, you make up an argument that I never stated in order to dismiss it. Such as you comparing the 33rd overall pick to the value of the 2nd overall pick. I never made that comparison. But you made that comparison in order to dismiss the value of the 33rd overall pick. You attempted to refute my argument without ever addressing it, but instead made up an argument to dismiss.

That's a strawman. There is no point in discussing with someone that does that, because they are not on topic.




It's a pretty accurate summary.

Since I never said any of it, it's really not an accurate summary.


Here I'll keep playing:



Will do, and he's had 14 fWAR in his past 4 years. Not to mention offensively he's been worth 9.7 rWAR over the past 3 years sooooo...there goes that.

Does he not play defense or something?
-2.1 dWAR over the last two seasons. I guess you want to calculate his WAR without defense or something?

He has a 6.4 rWAR over the last 3 seasons.

And again, fWAR is going to be useless. Unless you want to stand and say that Brendan Ryan has had a 8.8 fWAR over the last 4 seasons with a .279 wOBA, or that Brett Gardner had a 11.3 fWAR from 2010 and 2011 with his .333 wOBA.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 06:56 PM
Your standards for dynasties suck. They are a very good major league team that does a great deal to stay competitive despite their low payroll. The Cubs do not operate on their level, and in fact can operate closer to how the Yankees and Phillies have and do operate.

And what do the Yankees and Phillies have in common?

They developed core hall of fame caliber players, and THEN added free agents to that core to keep their competitive window open longer.

These were not 61 win teams that just started adding payroll to construct their team.

jlohm1
10-27-2012, 06:57 PM
I promise you the Reds won't look anything like that. Hamilton will not be up next year, Mesoraco may be in the minors, Stubbs is probably not going to be back, and Leake will be the 5th starter over Cingrani.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 06:58 PM
I promise you the Reds won't look anything like that. Hamilton will not be up next year, Mesoraco may be in the minors, Stubbs is probably not going to be back, and Leake will be the 5th starter over Cingrani.

I'm more curious if anything, what they will do with Ludwick (option obviously won't be picked up by Luddy).

will they re-sign him?

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 07:56 PM
And what do the Yankees and Phillies have in common?

They developed core hall of fame caliber players, and THEN added free agents to that core to keep their competitive window open longer.

These were not 61 win teams that just started adding payroll to construct their team.

Ah yes, now you need HOF caliber players to come up and give the freedom to make moves. I'm sure it needs to be obvious they're HOF caliber from the start, just like it was for Chase Utley when BA was calling him the 3B of the future.

The 1996 Yankees featured outsiders:

Tino Martinez - 28 yo star 1B from Seattle.
Paul O'Neill - Former Red, FA pickup in 1993.
Wade Boggs - Star Red Sox 3B, FA picked up 1993.
Dwight Gooden
Kenny Rogers
Jimmy Key
David Cone
Strawberry
Fielder
Sierra
Wetteland


All added before 1996, some years before 1996. But yeah, you're totally in the know on how to build a roster - they did it solely with their farm system producing 4 major players (Jeter, Williams, AP, and Rivera the set up man) that season. Which usurper allowed them to make so many moves before Jeter and others were well established super mega stars? Who DARED to break your completely made up rules back then? Here, I'll give you your out on this - The Yankees were in the playoffs the year before while the Cubs need prospects because they are Rebuilding for the Future.

The Cubs have put out a two time AS SS who isn't even 23 yet, a GG caliber 2B, a 22 yo 1B who absolutely dominated the PCL twice and came up and posted an .805 OPS for the Cubs, they traded for a very quality pitcher in Garza, and developed Samardzija into a strong looking starter. You keep repeating the same points over and over, brushing aside facts for anecdote reliant, non-specific rules to building. They have the room to add payroll, they have players on the roster who could be used to win now AND later, they have the need for talent, and they WILL be adding payroll and long term MLB talent while upping the ~50 million they have committed to next season.

Shadrach
10-27-2012, 08:06 PM
Don't think Haren would go to the Indians. Nor would
that be one of their target free-agents.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 08:08 PM
Does he not play defense or something?
-2.1 dWAR over the last two seasons. I guess you want to calculate his WAR without defense or something?

You yourself called him an above average fielder in this very conversation. What happened all of a sudden? bWAR has spoken? Upton doesn't have the defensive tools? Are we factoring out that the Cubs coaching staff's emphasis on positioning on defense allowed the Cubs to boost defensive performance of almost every starter on the roster?

Also, another attempt at playing obtuse. We're talking a player who's produced almost 10 bWAR offensively in a 3 year span - those players are very good players.

Keep trying though, I'm not doing shyte right now and this is not unfun.

Other things the Yankees and Phillies share:

Major markets that allow for significantly higher payrolls than most everyone else.
Farm systems that are never praised by Baseball America as tops in the world, but somehow produce talent and allow those teams to make trades for significant talents.
Buying pitching rather than developing pitching, but still capable of putting out a really good long term starter (Hamels and Pettitte).
Home runs - My boy BJ Upton has hit more HRs than all but 5 CFers in the past two years.

All completely 100% out of the realm of possibility for the Cubs because first and foremost - prospects. Pile up prospects and everything will be great - ask the Royals or Pirates. They're super.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 08:20 PM
Ah yes, now you need HOF caliber players to come up and give the freedom to make moves. I'm sure it needs to be obvious they're HOF caliber from the start, just like it was for Chase Utley when BA was calling him the 3B of the future.

The 1996 Yankees featured outsiders:

Tino Martinez - 28 yo star 1B from Seattle.
Paul O'Neill - Former Red, FA pickup in 1993.
Wade Boggs - Star Red Sox 3B, FA picked up 1993.
Dwight Gooden
Kenny Rogers
Jimmy Key
David Cone
Strawberry
Fielder
Sierra
Wetteland


All added before 1996, some years before 1996. But yeah, you're totally in the know on how to build a roster - they did it solely with their farm system producing 4 major players (Jeter, Williams, AP, and Rivera the set up man) that season. Which usurper allowed them to make so many moves before Jeter and others were well established super mega stars? Who DARED to break your completely made up rules back then? Here, I'll give you your out on this - The Yankees were in the playoffs the year before while the Cubs need prospects because they are Rebuilding for the Future.

The Cubs have put out a two time AS SS who isn't even 23 yet, a GG caliber 2B, a 22 yo 1B who absolutely dominated the PCL twice and came up and posted an .805 OPS for the Cubs, they traded for a very quality pitcher in Garza, and developed Samardzija into a strong looking starter. You keep repeating the same points over and over, brushing aside facts for anecdote reliant, non-specific rules to building. They have the room to add payroll, they have players on the roster who could be used to win now AND later, they have the need for talent, and they WILL be adding payroll and long term MLB talent while upping the ~50 million they have committed to next season.

Are you seriously comparing a Cubs team that lost 101 games last year to a Yankee team that was the best team in the AL in 1994 before the strike and in 1995 made the playoffs as the AL Wildcard?

Those teams were much closer than the Cubs regardless of the payroll flexibility the Cubs have going forward.

Jeter and Rivera didn't have huge impacts on that 95' team and Pettitte even though he won 12 games was very early in his major league development. They won with those guys playing much lesser roles than how they won in 96', 98', 99', and 00'

The Cubs have had diminishing success since 2008, that Yankee team was on the way up.

This Cub franchise although having blocks to build with were not where those middle 90s Yankees team were before the dynasty.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 08:23 PM
You yourself called him an above average fielder in this very conversation. What happened all of a sudden? bWAR has spoken? Upton doesn't have the defensive tools? Are we factoring out that the Cubs coaching staff's emphasis on positioning on defense allowed the Cubs to boost defensive performance of almost every starter on the roster?
No, I said he is slightly below average, go back and read it. He is a slightly below average defensive centerfielder, and a slightly above average offensive centerfielder.

And do you honestly think the Cubs positioning is better than the Rays?

Is that a joke?



Also, another attempt at playing obtuse. We're talking a player who's produced almost 10 bWAR offensively in a 3 year span - those players are very good players.
Do you mean 6.4?

There are exactly 100 guys (position players) that have done that in the last three seasons, including Will Venable, Sean Rodriguez, Jon Jay, Dexter Fowler, Jhonny Peralta, Darwin Barney, Mark Ellis, Marco Scutaro.


Other things the Yankees and Phillies share:

Major markets that allow for significantly higher payrolls than most everyone else.
Farm systems that are never praised by Baseball America as tops in the world, but somehow produce talent and allow those teams to make trades for significant talents.
Buying pitching rather than developing pitching, but still capable of putting out a really good long term starter (Hamels and Pettitte).
Yes, and while they share a market capability with the Cubs. The Cubs haven't done any of the rest of that.


Home runs - My boy BJ Upton has hit more HRs than all but 5 CFers in the past two years.
Houray? He is 12th in doubles, 21st out of 24 in batting average, 20th out of 24 in OBP, and 11th in Slugging percentage.


All completely 100% out of the realm of possibility for the Cubs because first and foremost - prospects. Pile up prospects and everything will be great - ask the Royals or Pirates. They're super.

Remember that word strawman?

I never said it works universally, you have to have a competent front office for it to work.

Or did you miss that like you omitted 87% of my last post to select this one statement to argue?

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 08:26 PM
Ah yes, now you need HOF caliber players to come up and give the freedom to make moves. I'm sure it needs to be obvious they're HOF caliber from the start, just like it was for Chase Utley when BA was calling him the 3B of the future.

The 1996 Yankees featured outsiders:

Tino Martinez - 28 yo star 1B from Seattle.
Paul O'Neill - Former Red, FA pickup in 1993.
Wade Boggs - Star Red Sox 3B, FA picked up 1993.
Dwight Gooden
Kenny Rogers
Jimmy Key
David Cone
Strawberry
Fielder
Sierra
Wetteland


All added before 1996, some years before 1996. But yeah, you're totally in the know on how to build a roster - they did it solely with their farm system producing 4 major players (Jeter, Williams, AP, and Rivera the set up man) that season. Which usurper allowed them to make so many moves before Jeter and others were well established super mega stars? Who DARED to break your completely made up rules back then? Here, I'll give you your out on this - The Yankees were in the playoffs the year before while the Cubs need prospects because they are Rebuilding for the Future.

The Cubs have put out a two time AS SS who isn't even 23 yet, a GG caliber 2B, a 22 yo 1B who absolutely dominated the PCL twice and came up and posted an .805 OPS for the Cubs, they traded for a very quality pitcher in Garza, and developed Samardzija into a strong looking starter. You keep repeating the same points over and over, brushing aside facts for anecdote reliant, non-specific rules to building. They have the room to add payroll, they have players on the roster who could be used to win now AND later, they have the need for talent, and they WILL be adding payroll and long term MLB talent while upping the ~50 million they have committed to next season.

Did you seriously just compare the 101 loss Cubs team of 2012 to the Yankees prior to 1996? When were the Yankees ever in a position as bad as the Yankees? The Yankees were horrible for years in the early 90's and 80's, but again, never as bad as the Cubs right now, and they have a history of developing awesome players. Something the Cubs have not done yet either.


For once, why doesn't your organization actually try, and commit to a philosophy that has worked successfully in other organizations like the Rays, A's, Rangers, etc?


I gotta run, cya.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 08:28 PM
So you represent his AAA slash line as a 'if he did this in the MLB it would be amazing' and then dismiss it by saying, 'he didn't even put that up in AAA this year. This is simple.'


Did this have a point? I'm actually curious. Do you think AAA lines translate exactly? Do they usually? Why should a 24 year old who's struck out so often over the past year and a half, while losing walks btw, be handed anything? Aren't you all about the Cubs getting good again? Weren't you playing that card? How does Brett Jackson make the Cubs better? By sucking for cheap if handed a starting job?

Why do I get the feeling that if I was raving about Brett Jackson, like you are in this thread (you've called him a guy who will become a 3 WAR player, someone who Upton would be pushing aside unnecessarily, and various other unfounded, similar statements), that you would be taking the exact stand I'm taking? That stand being that it is completely and utterly ridiculous to assume a kid who struck out in 1/3 of his minor league PAs at any level is going to turn into a starter let alone the kind of player you keep saying he will be.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 08:33 PM
Are you seriously comparing a Cubs team that lost 101 games last year to a Yankee team that was the best team in the AL in 1994 before the strike and in 1995 made the playoffs as the AL Wildcard?


Lol can I call it?

Is this game all about playing obtuse? Yeah, the point I was making was that the Cubs and Yankees were in the exact same position. Signing O'Neill, Key, and Boggs in 1993 (amongst others - JW before 1995) had no effect on 1994, 1995, and 1996. What dummies their FO were to make moves for those guys...they weren't even the big stars of 1996! How dare they! Those stupid FAs with their stupid inability to be productive once they hit FA! And boy did they halt the Yankees from developing anymore talent and winning future games.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 08:38 PM
For once, why doesn't your organization actually try, and commit to a philosophy that has worked successfully in other organizations like the Rays, A's, Rangers, etc?


Dallas Green and Andy McPhail were all about the prospects. Both came in and promised to build the farm, and both were successful at it. Guess how that turned out....

The Cubs have imitated the Rays for the past 3 years btw...Top picks and amateur spending to fill up the minors while saving money on an older ML roster. But lets ignore that because you've decided what's best with minimal amounts of facts.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 08:40 PM
Lol can I call it?

Is this game all about playing obtuse? Yeah, the point I was making was that the Cubs and Yankees were in the exact same position. Signing O'Neill, Key, and Boggs in 1993 (amongst others - JW before 1995) had no effect on 1994, 1995, and 1996. What dummies their FO were to make moves for those guys...they weren't even the big stars of 1996! How dare they! Those stupid FAs with their stupid inability to be productive once they hit FA! And boy did they halt the Yankees from developing anymore talent...

Did you read my point?

Or are you playing strawman again?

I said those teams were in much better position to compete than a 101 loss team that has a weaker farm system and very few players of talent.

You guys have building blocks like Rizzo, Barney, Castro, Samardzija etc etc but even with that talent they still won only 61 games.

Those are not teams you start bringing big time FA in to fix.

You keep working with the draft, adding IFAs, acquiring mid level talent, and making a few impact trades then when you start reaping some of your patience W-L wise that's when you get into big time FA spending.

Taking a 61 win team and turning them into in a 95 win doesn't happen with signing BJ Upton and next year adding Corey Hart (just hypothetical examples)

It obviously takes time.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 08:47 PM
It also helps when you get two HOF players that developed from those prospects and one of the best playoff SP in the modern era.

You aren't talking any ordinary specs.

If the guys you have can guarantee that type of success within 2 years of coming up, then yeah be my guest go buy Josh Hamilton and BJ Upton now.

Especially if you guys also have a catcher who hits 275 homers and has over 1000 RBIs in his career coming down the pipeline to go with your new generation Rivera, Jeter, and Pettitte.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 08:53 PM
Did you read my point?

Yeah, it was exactly what I said it would be.

Signing Upton doesn't stop Baez, Almora, Soler, Paniagua, Vizcaino, Vogelbach, the 2 pick, and so on from developing. It's so sad you guys can't wrap your head around that.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 08:55 PM
Yeah, it was exactly what I said it would be.

Yeah because a 61 win Cubs team in 2012 is exactly the same as a 76 win Yankee team in 1992?

That's not a significant difference at all.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 09:01 PM
Signing Upton doesn't stop Baez, Almora, Soler, Paniagua, Vizcaino, Vogelbach, the 2 pick, and so on from developing. It's so sad you guys can't wrap your head around that.

It doesn't but you are sacrificing possibly the 33rd pick which has value and guys like Baez, Almora, Soler, Paniagua, and the number 2 pick next year are a ways away from having an impact.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 09:05 PM
So just to get this clear - everyone knew Jeter, Posada, Williams, Pettitte, Utley, and so on were HOF and borderline HOF talents from the start? How are you not writing for BA or something right now? That's a hell of an eye.

I suppose Almora, the 6 pick like Jeter...Soler, one of the most touted Cubans in recent history...Baez, a guy Callis said could be a top 15 prospect right now...Paniagua, a big money IFA that the Yankees are still pissed at missing out on...They're normal prospects. #2 pick is a normal prospect. Dime a dozen.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 09:08 PM
Yeah because a 61 win Cubs team in 2012 is exactly the same as a 76 win Yankee team in 1992?

That's not a significant difference at all.

Yeah and therefore there is nothing can be taken from what they did. You have to KNOW you have HOFers coming up in the farm before you sign FAs, and if that's not the case then you have to be about to win even without those meddlesome FAs. It's all about the prospects baby.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 09:09 PM
So just to get this clear - everyone knew Jeter, Posada, Williams, Pettitte, Utley, and so on were HOF and borderline HOF talents from the start? How are you not writing for BA or something right now? That's a hell of an eye.

I suppose Almora, the 6 pick like Jeter...Soler, one of the most touted Cubans in recent history...Baez, a guy Callis said could be a top 15 prospect right now...Paniagua, a big money IFA that the Yankees are still pissed at missing out on...They're normal prospects. #2 pick is a normal prospect. Dime a dozen.

You're not reading my points.

To have that type of success you need to hope those prospects develop like Jeter, Pettitte and Rivera did in conjunction with having a solid team around them.

As good as those teams were though without those guys becoming what they became do the Yankees win 4 titles in 5 years?

Probably not.

Again my point hasn't changed those minor leaguers unless they are going to have an immediate impact in the next year its really pointless to go spend all that money on a FA like Upton.

Keep improving then find an OF better than Upton when you starting reaping the fruit of the team's patience.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 09:10 PM
Did this have a point? I'm actually curious. Do you think AAA lines translate exactly?

Did you not gather that you posted his AAA slash line, and then said 'he didn't even post that this year'?


You don't see that? You again, present an argument that isn't the argument and then dismiss your new argument as if that somehow disproves what I said.

This is called a strawman, and it's the only argument you keep making. You have done it consistently, so there is no point in continuing this discussion if that is all you are going to do. You can't stay on topic

metswon69
10-27-2012, 09:11 PM
Yeah and therefore there is nothing can be taken from what they did. You have to KNOW you have HOFers coming up in the farm before you sign FAs, and if that's not the case then you have to be about to win even without those meddlesome FAs. It's all about the prospects baby.

Yeah it might also help to be 15 games better first before you worry about playoffs in the near future.

Tell me they have those most of those prospects coming in a year or two knowing they are going to make significant impacts along with a team juxtaposed that looks ready to compete for the playoffs if they add another FA or two, then you can start talking Upton type players.

That's what the Yankees did in 1993 and going forward.

There is a big difference between losing a 101 games and losing 86 games in reference to possibly competing short term.

Metaphorically speaking, when comparing teams one needs a botox injection or two, the other needs an entire facial reconstruction.

Jeffy25
10-27-2012, 09:12 PM
You're not reading my points.
He doesn't.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 09:15 PM
He doesn't.

Well then no more debating...

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 09:23 PM
He doesn't.

I thought you left, guy who's argument centered on how buying two (or one) prime aged FAs = building your roster with FAs and halting the farm?

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 09:38 PM
So after a 1992 season where they lost 86 games the 1993 the Yankees bought Paul O'Neill, Jimmy Key, and Wade Boggs. Those guys would all be key players three years later in 1996 and ONeill would become a fan favorite into the early 2000s.

This is OK in your eyes because secretly they knew they were going to be pumping out huge playoff runs and future HOFers over the next few years. Meanwhile the Cubs can't do something similar because, according to you two, the prospects need to be obviously special for this to happen. The Cubs have special prospects but unlike the Yankees 1995 crop of Pettitte, Jeter, and Rivera the crop of Almora, Soler, Baez, Paniagua, and Vizcaino is not heading to the HOF and aren't close like those guys were when those three FAs signed.

Got it. Peeeeefectly logical and not a DROP of hindsight. I see the err of my ways.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 09:53 PM
I can't speak for Jeffy.

All i can say is that with the % of young prospects that fail and the fact the Cubs were 100+ loss baseball team last year, yeah picking up a BJ Upton is not a good idea.

Although no specs are guaranteed everyday major league players nevermind all stars or HOF, it would be nice to see some of them succeed past rookie or A ball first before you start gauging their future with them.

Look at where Jeter, Pettitte and Rivera were in 1994 and there's a big difference in development that coincided with a much better major league Yankee team.

That didn't guarantee them to win 4 out of 5 WS but it certainly suggested they would be a perennial playoff contender with a budding roster.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 10:06 PM
I can't speak for Jeffy.

All i can say is that with the % of young prospects that fail and the fact the Cubs were 100+ loss baseball team last year, yeah picking up a BJ Upton is not a good idea.

Although no specs are guaranteed to be HOF, it would be nice to see some of them succeed past rookie or A-ball first before you start gauging their future with them.

Picking up Paul O'Neill was a bad idea. After 86 losses what was the point of a 30 year old COF who only topped 20 HRs once and a .750 OPS twice? In the meat of tThat's a flexibility killing move! Not only that but their best prospects were still two years away and the only young stud on the roster was a 23 year old CF who hadn't broken out offensively yet....

The argument just gets weaker and weaker...It took me two seconds to learn this stuff about the 1992 Yankees and how that 1996 team was put together.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:13 PM
Picking up Paul O'Neill was a bad idea. After 86 losses what was the point of a 30 year old COF who only top 20 HRs and a .750 OPS twice? That's a flexibility killing move! Not only that but their best prospects were still two years away and the only young stud on the roster was a 23 year old CF who hadn't broken out offensively yet....

The argument just gets weaker and weaker...It took me two seconds to learn this stuff about the 1992 Yankees and how that 1996 team was put together.

Good go for Upton, Hamilton, whoever you want.

When you end up like the Marlins did this year with the same quick fix philosophy and less payroll flexibility (because you won't be able to deal those guys away so quickly) and still lose 90 games then you can come back in a year and say what a waste of money they were.

You are looking at this team like they are one or two big time FAs away in conjunction with young players that haven't proven anything yet.

I guess there is no way to build a team anymore besides picking up big time FA either or adding significant payroll through trade.

I mean its all about spending money that's why the Red Sox, the Mets, the Dodgers, and the Angels all had great postseasons this year.

Oh wait...

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:18 PM
I guess you really don't see the significant difference between a 101 loss team and a 86 loss team.

Well until you can there is really no point in continuing this discussion.

You make the Paul O'Neill/ BJ Upton type moves when you are definitively closer to competing.

This Cubs team is not no matter how much hype the young guys have.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:34 PM
I wouldn't even advocate picking up BJ Upton as a Mets fan and to be that into perspective we were 13 games better than you guys were with 2 minor league guys that will have significantly more impact in the near future (at least in terms of being almost ready in Wheeler and Flores) than some of the guys you mentioned.

He is not a player that will improve the team enough to merit spending 60+ million on him when you are nowhere near competing.

You guys need a game changer when some of those guys come up and make major league impacts, along with having a solid foundation that coincides with budding specs.

Then i could understand pursuing a Jason Heyward or a Justin Upton.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 10:36 PM
I can't speak for Jeffy.

All i can say is that with the % of young prospects that fail and the fact the Cubs were 100+ loss baseball team last year, yeah picking up a BJ Upton is not a good idea.

Although no specs are guaranteed to be HOF, it would be nice to see some of them succeed past rookie or A-ball first before you start gauging their future with them.

Picking up Paul O'Neill was a bad idea. After 86 losses what was the point of a 30 year old COF who only top 20 HRs and a .750 OPS twice? That's a flexibility killing move! Not only that but their best prospects were still two years away and the only young stud on the roster was a 23 year old CF who hadn't broken out offensively yet....

The argument just gets weaker and weaker...It took me two seconds to learn this stuff about the 1992 Yankees and how that 1996 team was put together.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:37 PM
Picking up Paul O'Neill was a bad idea. After 86 losses what was the point of a 30 year old COF who only top 20 HRs and a .750 OPS twice? That's a flexibility killing move! Not only that but their best prospects were still two years away and the only young stud on the roster was a 23 year old CF who hadn't bLz
roken out offensively yet....

The argument just gets weaker and weaker...It took me two seconds to learn this stuff about the 1992 Yankees and how that 1996 team was put together.

You made this argument already..

Scroll up.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 10:40 PM
And Wade Boggs and Jimmy Key? Those guys would be dead before the Yankees righted the ship, amirite!?!?!

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:43 PM
And Wade Boggs and Jimmy Key? Those guys would be dead before the Yankees righted the ship, amirite!?!?!

Again strawmanning my points.

Get an 75-80 win team with a more immediate direction before you talk about big time FAs will ya.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 10:44 PM
I wouldn't even advocate picking up BJ Upton as a Mets fan and to be that into perspective we were 13 games better than you guys were with 2 minor league guys that will have significantly more impact in the near future (at least in terms of being almost ready in Wheeler and Flores) than some of the guys you mentioned.

He is not a player that will improve the team enough to merit spending 60+ million on him when you are nowhere near competing.

You guys need a game changer when some of those guys come up and make major league impacts, along with having a solid foundation that coincides with budding specs.

Then i could understand pursuing a Jason Heyward or a Justin Upton.

Paul O'Neill is not a player that will improve the team enough to merit spending 19 million 1993 dollars on him. The Yankees need a game changer when their prospects come up and make major league impacts, and they need a more solid foundation than Bernie Wholliams before they're allowed to sign FAs if they have any brians at all. Once that foundation is established, then they can pursue Rondell White or some other younger star.

Wade Boggs and Jimmy Key are too old to be useful in 3 years.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 10:45 PM
Again strawmanning my points.

Get an 75-80 win team with a more immediate direction before you talk about big time FAs will ya.

You realize your point is built on a strawman right? If this is the best counter you have to it then you're not making much of a point.

BJ Upton is not a big time FA. 75-80 wins does not mean you have a future great team. These are stupid, arbitrary bars that mean nothing but you really want to give value to because you're married to this nonsensical position.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:47 PM
Paul O'Neill is not a player that will improve the team enough to merit spending 19 million dollars on him. The Yankees need a game changer when their prospects come up and make major league impacts, and they need a more solid foundation than Bernie Wholliams before they're allowed to sign FAs if they have any brians at all. Once that foundation is established, then they can pursue Rondell White or some other younger star.

Again 76 wins compared to 61...

Pickup those three guys in 93' along with improving roster and they won 88 games in 1993.

Then were on pace to win the division in 94' before the Jeter, Pettites, and the Riveras of the world ever made an impact.

There is no comparison between teams so stop trying to make it.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:49 PM
I can see why you keep making the same argument when you can't see the difference in the 92' Yankees and the 12' Cubs.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:50 PM
You realize your point is built on a strawman right? If this is the best counter you have to it then you're not making much of a point.

BJ Upton is not a big time FA. 75-80 wins does not mean you have a future great team. These are stupid, arbitrary bars that mean nothing but you really want to give value to because you're married to this nonsensical position.

No it means your team is in much better position to compete because as you move upward there are more building blocks year to year.

You aren't the Mets with 140 million dollar payroll in 2011 with a limited minor league system and no direction.

You have guys cemented in certain positions along with a young farm system that could (operative word COULD) produce very productive players.

The problem is that you are nowhere close to being even a 75 win ballclub and BJ Upton is not a deal you make when you aren't.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 10:53 PM
Again 76 wins compared to 61...

Pickup those three guys in 93' along with improving roster and they won 88 games in 1993.

Then were on pace to win the division in 94' before the Jeter, Pettites, and the Riveras of the world ever made an impact.

There is no comparison between teams so stop trying to make it.

No comparison?

4th in their divisions.
By far the largest market in the division.
One young star looking player on the 1992 roster (Williams). One young star looking player for the Cubs (Castro).
Young, sabermetrically inclined FOs not impeded by ownership to do what they have to do to get the job done.

But yeah, keep using your gift of hindsight to pretend there's *nothing* these two teams share in common. It's literally all you've got.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 10:58 PM
No it means your team is in much better position to compete because as you move upward there are more building blocks year to year.

You aren't the Mets with 140 million dollar payroll in 2011 with a limited minor league system and no direction.

You have guys cemented in certain positions along with a young farm system that could (operative word COULD) produce very productive players.

The problem is that you are nowhere close to being even a 75 win ballclub and BJ Upton is not a deal you make when you aren't.

Which is why the Mets won't be a factor in FA. The Cubs? Not so much.

You're not making an argument. You're just stating your opinion as fact and saying it's the truth. It's not. You don't need 75-80 wins to think you can win moving forward. You don't need HOF bound prospects giving you permission to make moves that benefit the franchise in 2013 and moving forward. You're making all this stuff up - there is no basis in fact for it - and that is why your argument does not involve facts beyond "the Cubs lost alot of games, even more than the Yankees' last bad team before 2008." It's all opinion, and opinions are like *******s - we all have them and most people really think theirs don't stink even when there's nothing to support that.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 10:59 PM
No comparison?

4th in their divisions.
By far the largest market in the division.
One young star looking player on the 1992 roster (Williams). One young star looking player for the Cubs (Castro).
Young, sabermetrically inclined FOs not impeded by ownership to do what they have to do to get the job done.

But yeah, keep using your gift of hindsight to pretend there's *nothing* these two teams share in common. It's literally all you've got.

Keep pretending 76 wins is no big difference to 61.

Oh yeah biggest market in your division and how has that served you in the last 30 years?

They were left handed power hitting inclined with good pitching predominantly.

Playing to the strengths of that ballpark was Gene Michael's philosophy and that came from Brian Cashman's mouth himself (not to mention the same philosophy he has followed since)

metswon69
10-27-2012, 11:08 PM
Which is why the Mets won't be a factor in FA. The Cubs? Not so much.

You're not making an argument. You're just stating your opinion as fact and saying it's the truth. It's not. You don't need 75-80 wins to think you can win moving forward. You don't need HOF bound prospects giving you permission to make moves that benefit the franchise in 2013 and moving forward. You're making all this stuff up - there is no basis in fact for it - and that is why your argument does not involve facts beyond "the Cubs lost alot of games, even more than the Yankees' last bad team before 2008." It's all opinion, and opinions are like *******s - we all have them and most people really think theirs don't stink even when there's nothing to support that.

I said 2011 Mets not 2012 but its a moot point anyway because that's an entirely different subject on the Wilpons being the worst big market owners in baseball.

Yeah opinions are like *******s much like yours is about BJ Upton and what he signifies or how he improves the team enough to merit spending all that money on him when you guys won 61 games last year.

He's not a centerpiece guy like a Miggy, Trout, or he is even Giancarlo Stanton.

Those are the guys you build around if you want to spend a large amount of money in FA but even then you have to question that methodology when you are so far away from being a legitimate playoff contender.

Believe whatever you want but BJ Upton will have a minimal impact on the Cubs unless a whole bunch of other things change in conjunction and you guys are nowhere near that amount of positive change yet.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 11:09 PM
Keep pretending 76 wins is no big difference to 61.

It isn't. That stuff doesn't roll over. The Cubs record in 2012 has no bearing on what their 2013 record will be, just as their 2012 offseason has no bearing on what the 2013 offseason will be.


Oh yeah biggest market in your division and how has that served you in the last 30 years?

Oh, good argument. It's allowed the Cubs have payrolls that are 20 even 30-40 million higher than the next closest in the division. Of course, since the same FO has been running the Cubs this whole time, your point is totally relevant and having a huge market is not a factor. I'm getting killed here.


The Yankees had the most money in baseball to spend then too btw.

Ah, and the Cubs are way out of the realm of possibility. Chicago is a small town with low revenue clubs...Nothing like NY. It's not the biggest, oldest, and most relevant city in the mid-west or anything. A couple farms, maybe a few cows and horses...


Yankees weren't sabermetrically inclined by the way. They were left handed power hitting inclined with good pitching.

Ooph. You know as much about the Yankees as you do the Cubs. No wonder this conversation is where it is...


Playing to the strengths of that ballpark was Gene Michael's philosophy and that came from Brian Cashman's mouth himself.

Yep, and this was all done without the numbers to back it. They just guessed, as the Yankees are wont to do. It's not like Cashman wrote MoneyBall, and stats were a secret until Beane wrote that book.


I wouldn't consider paying guys like O'Neill or Boggs finding market inefficiencies in value.

Your consideration is not relevant, inefficiencies aren't what sabermetrics are about. The Yankees don't have to play that game, though they can and have because they're smart.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 11:17 PM
It isn't. That stuff doesn't roll over. The Cubs record in 2012 has no bearing on what their 2013 record will be, just as their 2012 offseason has no bearing on what the 2013 offseason will be.



Oh, good argument. It's allowed the Cubs have payrolls that are 20 even 30-40 million higher than the next closest in the division. Of course, since the same FO has been running the Cubs this whole time, your point is totally relevant and having a huge market is not a factor. I'm getting killed here.



Ah, and the Cubs are way out of the realm of possibility. Chicago is a small town with low revenue clubs...Nothing like NY. It's not the biggest, oldest, and most relevant city in the mid-west or anything. A couple farms, maybe a few cows and horses...



Ooph. You know as much about the Yankees as you do the Cubs. No wonder this conversation is where it is...



Yep, and this was all done without the numbers to back it. They just guessed, as the Yankees are wont to do. It's not like Cashman wrote MoneyBall, and stats were a secret until Beane wrote that book.



Your consideration is not relevant, inefficiencies aren't what sabermetrics are about. The Yankees don't have to play that game, though they can and have because they're smart.

More strawmanning of course.

Yeah and moneyball has nothing to do with market inefficiencies.

I know nothing about the Yankees living in Brooklyn and being surrounded by Yankee fans. Neither are they on television with Yes or on the radio with guys like Brian Cashman, Sweeney Murti, and Mike Francesca everyday talking about ways to improve the team.

Do you notice? I can do sarcasm too.

Keep going with esoteric diatribes and circling the points all you want.

If you think picking up BJ Upton is a great move stand in front of Wrigley Field all winter and wait for Theo to come to the stadium one day to talk to him about it.

Honestly i don't care.

All i was saying is that BJ Upton is not a guy that will significantly help a team so far away from being a playoff contender.

If you believe otherwise so be it but i'm done.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 11:20 PM
Yeah opinions are like *******s much like yours is about BJ Upton and what he signifies or how he improves the team enough to merit spending all that money on him when you guys won 61 games last year.

I've not said anything about how many wins Upton adds to the roster. I have spoken on his numbers, how they are good numbers, how they represent the potential to be an even better offensive player moving forward, and how he adds to the talent level of the roster in 2013 and beyond.

You keep clinging to those 61 wins, you need it.


He's not a centerpiece guy like a Miggy, Trout, or he is even Giancarlo Stanton.

Oh and you're right - that's how I'm pitching him. As a franchise player...a FA franchise player not on a 100 million dollar contract in the 21st century...you know...like all of them.

I wasn't aware the only players you make moves on in FA are franchise players. Those stupid Yankees could have had Bobby Bonilla and his career .835 OPS (O'Neill's was just .769) and gotten themselves some real impact!


Those are the guys you build around if you want to spend money in FA but even then you have to question that methodology when you are so far away from being a legitimate playoff contender.

^More arbitrary, unsupported nonsense on the one way to build a roster^


Believe whatever you want but BJ Upton will have a minimal impact on the Cubs unless a whole bunch of other things change in conjunction and you guys are nowhere near that amount of positive change yet.

Um, no ****? Just like Paul O'Neill would have minimal impact if the Yankees' HOF prospects don't become HOF players. Just like Jayson Werth would have no impact if Bryce Harper, Steve Strasburg, and friends never live up to their potential. Just like Cespedes goes to waste if the rest of the young A's can't play. Just like Adam Jones might go to waste if the O's don't improve their roster. Just like Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw were being wasted on mediocre Dodgers teams - and look how the Dodgers get treated when they do make moves to improve the talent around those two superstars.

Fact is, people are going to ***** either way, your way isn't the best way just because you insist on it, and you're not even bothering to give any kind of proof besides "zomg 61 wins!" as to why the Cubs should sit on their hands for the next few years.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 11:24 PM
Fact is, people are going to ***** either way, your way isn't the best way just because you insist on it, and you're not even bothering to give any kind of proof besides "zomg 61 wins!" as to why the Cubs should sit on their hands for the next few years.

Nobody is saying sitting on their hands btw.

There are ways to improve a team through FA that doesn't include just the big money ones (that aren't particularly great and would be overpaid quite a bit).

You guys have been doing it with the IFAs, the draft, and trading for guys like Rizzo (which was a steal) and Garza.

Btw all of that **** is supposed to be obvious to a Cubs fan in regards to the rest of my post.

Arbitrary nonsense is subjective btw, although you keep saying my point about 61 wins is all i have, it doesn't change the fact that was what your team's record was and how bad they were.

Neither does it change the fact that BJ Upton is not worth 60+ million dollars with a cumulative rWAR of 6.8 the last 3 seasons.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 11:27 PM
More strawmanning of course.

Rotfl. "You need 75-70 wins to know you might compete, STOP STRAWMANNING!"


Yeah and moneyball has nothing to do with market inefficiencies.

Lol wut? MoneyBall and sabermetrics...and at this point I'm just hoping you're being obtuse rather than actually believing yourself - are two separate things.


I know nothing about the Yankees living in Brooklyn and being surrounded by Yankee fans. Neither are they on television with Yes or on the radio with guys like Brian Cashman, Sweeney Murti, and Mike Francesca everyday talking about ways to improve the team.

Yet somehow you don't know that the Yankees were amongst the first organization to use, and the Michaels/Watson/Cashman FO used them heavily. Weird. Also, your location means nothing. I live in NY, grew up in NJ, know plenty of Yankee fans, and none of them know or knew how heavy the Yankees are on numbers.


Do you notice? I can do sarcasm too.

I hate to be mean, I really do, but you do it as well as you make competent arguments on the one and only way to build a winning roster.


If you think picking up BJ Upton is a great move stand in front of Wrigley Field and hope you find Theo so you can talk to him about it this offseason.

Good one? Jesus this is getting worse....


Honestly i don't care.

Yet you keep debating me with nothing but your opinion to support your opinion.


All i was saying is that BJ Upton is not a guy that will significantly help a team so far away from being a playoff contender.

And all I was doing was agreeing with you. Paul O'Neil is a mediocre COFer who won't make an impact with the Yankees. He's just not that kind of talent.


If you believe otherwise so be it but i'm done.

Praise Jah.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 11:31 PM
Nobody is saying sitting on their hands btw.

There are ways to improve a team through FA that doesn't include just the big money ones (that aren't particularly great and want a crapload of money).

You guys have been doing it with the IFAs, the draft, and trading for guys like Rizzo (which was a steal) and Garza.

Yes you are, you're just trying to make it sound like you're not now. Signing FAs doesn't stop the Cubs from making trades. In fact, it allows for quality talent to be added to the roster WITHOUT costing the franchise multiple prospects for one player who would then have to be extended. They can now focus on using the many, many bat prospects in the system to land pitching - which is not so easy to find in FA.

Signing FAs doesn't stop the Cubs from signing IFAs or developing draft picks. In fact, next year they'll have more room to spend than all but one other franchise in the sport.

Signing FAs doesn't do anything but add a quality player to a roster replete of quality talent outside of the few young players the Cubs have gained from using their farm system (Castro, Barney, Russell, Rizzo, Samardzija, Garza, Marmol-ish, Wood).

You keep pretending I'm treating Upton as the big money signing that launches the franchise into years of success. With this and "61 WINZ!!" you have the foundation of a mediocre argument to not do it.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 11:35 PM
Yes you are, you're just trying to make it sound like you're not now. Signing FAs doesn't stop the Cubs from making trades. Signing FAs doesn't stop the Cubs from signing IFAs or developing draft picks. Signing FAs doesn't do anything but add a quality player to a roster replete of quality talent outside of the few young players the Cubs have gained from using their farm system (Castro, Barney, Russell, Rizzo, Samardzija, Garza, Marmol-ish, Wood).

You keep pretending I'm treating Upton as the big money signing that launches the franchise into years of success. With this and "61 WINZ!!" you have the foundation of a mediocre argument to not do it.

No i didn't say that, i just think you think you are a lot closer to competing with 1 or 2 big money FA as a foundation to go with the players you have and the specs you believe will become impact major leaguers.

You are not.

But ultimately it really doesn't matter, Theo wont make that move.

Losing a 33rd pick in the draft (if a qualifying offer is made and i am sure the Rays will make it not to lose the pick) could be a very big deal.

There are plenty of great 2nd rounders like many of the ones Jeffy mentioned.

Where did i say sit on your hands or suggested it in a round about way for that matter?

All i said was BJ Upton doesn't particularly make your team better or put your team in any better position where they are currently located for the money he will be asking for.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 11:39 PM
Lol wut? MoneyBall and sabermetrics...and at this point I'm just hoping you're being obtuse rather than actually believing yourself - are two separate things.


Although i admitted made a mistake on this one, that's neither here nor there anyway because all FO are sabermetrically inclined nowadays.

Everyone is looking for measures of players through advanced statistics and what coincides with that is obviously trying to find value in lesser FA acquisitions also.

It's part of the game.

SenorGato
10-27-2012, 11:43 PM
No i didn't say that, i just think you think you are a lot closer to competing with 1 or 2 big money FA as a foundation.

You are not.

If this is what you think then you're 100% incapable of following my line of thinking. Even WITH the Yankees example, which highlights...That's just mind numbing, and I'm sorry your mind is so inflexible.

Actually you know what...I do think we're closer to competing than most. I don't think it will be easy, but I don't think anything should be easy. Easy is for *****es. There's plenty to work with, and in a 2-4 years there will be plenty of prospects knocking on the door (though hopefully a few are traded for real players because the world needs ditch diggers too).


But ultimately it really doesn't matter, Theo wont make that move.

The move may not happen, sure. There's one thing you have right, though of course you have to go to the extreme because you're frustrated.



Losing a 33rd pick in the draft (if a qualifying offer is made and it looks like the Rays will make it) could be a very big deal

There are plenty of great 2nd rounders like many of the ones Jeffy mentioned.

Could be, maybe. More likely? It's not and the pick is forgotten in time.


Where did i say sit on your hands or suggested it for that matter?

Heavily implied in your whole "wait for the prospects" pitch.


All i said was BJ Upton doesn't particularly make your team better or put your team in any better position where they are currently located for the money he will be asking for.

Yeah, just like Paul O'Neill. It does nothing. The Cubs will be a worse team for it, and all farm progress will grind to a halt because he's robbed the franchise of the #33 pick and is not Barry Bonds or someone of similar ilk. I get it. It makes total sense. The logic is infallible.

metswon69
10-27-2012, 11:49 PM
Heavily implied in your whole "wait for the prospects" pitch.

It wasn't the sole point i made.

I also mentioned in one of my earlier posts that getting players of impact through trade is important and signing lesser FA (that aren't the BJ Uptons of the world)

Like Cody Ross for example.

Solid mid market move that could help that team and give them more flexibility to acquire other players as well.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 12:31 AM
It wasn't the sole point i made.

I also mentioned in one of my earlier posts that getting players of impact through trade is important and signing lesser FA (that aren't the BJ Uptons of the world)

Like Cody Ross for example.

Solid mid market move that could help that team and give you more flexibility to acquire other players as well.

The Cubs aren't mid-market. They signed their Cody Ross in David DeJesus. Time for phase 2, and a little bit higher of a standard.

Why is Cody Ross a better signing than Upton? I'm going to take the guess that we all know is right - price. Price is not the issue - talent is objective. It's doubtful that Upton's contract buries this franchise.

Trades, believe it or not, are still entirely possible. In fact for my roster I threw in Justin Masterson or Rick Porcello as rotation pieces to trade for. The Indians are a smaller dollar franchise in the early stages of a rebuild, and Porcello does not fit the Tigers as a groundball pitcher in front of the worst defensive infields in the league. I'm hoping the Cubs can take advantage of that to land either one of those sinkerballers to put in front of the Rizzo, Barney, Castro, probably a passable or better defensive 3B who can hit some HRs.

You build a roster by making moves. If you are a big market team there is a little more room to be a little inefficient in your spending, which is where FAs come into play.

The 1998 Yankees were a *much* better team than the 1996 team that won. That 1996 roster was a jumble of FAs, some big prospects that came up and performed, the breakout of Williams (who was good in '93, better in '94, very good in 1995, and broke out the power in 1996), and then league JAGs playing up. The 1998 roster featured their home grown stars and now there were 5 legitimate homegrown studs. Their earliest prime aged FA signing held up (O'Neill), and they landed better pitching. That's how you continue winning. The building doesn't stop with one FA. The 2007 Red Sox were a much better team than the 2004 Red Sox, and featured more home grown players than the first team. FAs are a way of keeping a roster competent as the farm system helps drag down the average salary (or whatever the organization would use) of the players on the roster. If you pick the right FAs, a good profile being multi-skilled prime aged guys who are prototypical/excellent athletes for the position and sport as well as obviously the obvious superstars. Those guy usually are not your obvious superstars (though they are productive and liked in the scouting community obviously) and require actual scouting and analysis to find and land. Some can even be coached up and break out like Paul O'Neill would for the Yankees or Matt Garza did when he was traded to the Cubs. BJ Upton, to me, is likely to be a good buy at the contract he will be getting because he's set a nice benchmark for performance as hits the middle of his prime. That is the type of FA that helps make the rebuild a little easier and faster while helping less the load on prospects/extremely young players like Castro, Rizzo, and those below them.

So many words.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 12:40 AM
More numbers on Upton...

It was brought up that he didn't hit a ton of doubles in the past 2 years. He's in 12th place there. From '08-'10 the only CF who hit more doubles was Marlon Byrd. Upton was aged 23-25 in that period of time. As he's aged, more doubles have gone over the fence - hence being 6th amongst CFers in HRs over the past two years. This is normal. When a player hits their prime, they tend to hit more HRs. Only Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen beat him out in both HRs and 2Bs over the past two years.

Only Bourne, Crisp, Stubbs, and Revere are ahead of him in SBs over the past two seasons. He's stealing those bases at a 79% (actually 78.8%) clip. From ages 23 to 25 only Bourn stole more bases.

He's averaged ~.195 ISO over the past 3 years.

He's also walked in 9.1% of his PAs, above league average of ~8, he walked at 11% in 2011, and his career BB% is at 10.6%.

These are all good signs for a long term contract.



dWAR on Fangraphs has him at -1.6 wins in '10, -.4 wins in '11, and -.1 wins in '12. Is he improving defensively? He certainly has the tools to be a strong defensive CFer through his contract. His ARM (Fangraphs' stat for an OFers arm) is 6th in the past 2 years and 4th in the past 5. Tools are there, and he has the arm to play RF if/when Almora takes CF in the middle of his contract.



This can be viewed here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2012&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,d

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2010&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=7,d

metswon69
10-28-2012, 12:52 AM
Hey i understand your approach even i don't agree with it.

Their fWAR's weren't entirely that much different Upton's and Ross's (3.3 to 2.4) and the odds are Ross will make a significantly less amount of money (although i do understand they play different positions)

That's why giving him 60+ million dollars is harder to justify as well because he'll be only marginally better than a player probably making less than half his money annually (aside from not being close to contention)

I know big market teams can be more lenient with their expenses but that isn't an excuse to be willy nilly with larger FA contracts.

That's how teams acquire underachievers like Carl Crawford and that's another thing while on the subject.

Can Upton play in a big market? Some of these guys crumble when they find more undue pressure and the spotlight is particularly more intense. At least we know Ross can.

I guess we will find out this winter.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 12:52 AM
Good stuff chaps. Pip pip.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 01:01 AM
Hey although i understand your approach even i don't agree with it.

Their fWAR's weren't entirely that much different Upton's and Ross's (3.3 to 2.4) and the odds are Ross will make a significantly less amount of money.

That's why giving him 60+ million dollars is harder to justify as well because he'll be only marginally better than a player making half his money annually.

I know big market teams can be more lenient with their expenses but that isn't an excuse to be willy nilly with bigger market contracts. Like I said, David DeJesus is just fine as their Cody Ross, and Ross is coming off a season that might get him overrated on the FA market anyway.

That's how teams acquire underachievers like Carl Crawford, and that's another factor.

Can Upton play in a big market? Some of these crumble when they find more undue pressure and the spotlight is more intense.

We will see this winter.

Cody Ross being as productive in 1 year out of 7 is not a reason to sign him. The guy is 4 years older and Upton was still better than him in his best season since 2008.

Carl Crawford still has 5 years left on his deal. That story is hardly over.

Upton was an elite amateur talent who was one of the key players in the Rays' rise to an elite franchise. I have little doubt he can play in a big market. He was pivotal in their playoff run to the WS in 2008.

All the information is out there to make a strong hypothesis on all these things even now, if you're willing.

metswon69
10-28-2012, 01:13 AM
Cody Ross being as productive in 1 year out of 7 is not a reason to sign him. The guy is 4 years older and Upton was still better than him in his best season since 2008.

Carl Crawford still has 5 years left on his deal. That story is hardly over.

Upton was an elite amateur talent who was one of the key players in the Rays' rise to an elite franchise. I have little doubt he can play in a big market. He was pivotal in their playoff run to the WS in 2008.

All the information is out there to make a strong hypothesis on all these things even now, if you're willing.

Well truth is Upton has averaged a 2.4 rWAR per year since 2007.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonbj01.shtml

Cody Ross has averaged a 1.8 rWAR per year since 2007.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossco01.shtml

The difference isn't that significant for a player who will make far less money.

Ross will be 32 in December, that isn't ancient neither should he be on the complete downswing of his career yet.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 01:28 AM
3.1 offensively and 3.8 per 162 offensively. Again, a good player. Offense is what the Cubs need, and the coaches seem to have some ability to coach up the defense. Ross is at 2.7 oWAR per 162 and 1.6 on average. That's huge.

The difference between 2.4 WAR and 1.8 WAR is the same difference between Miguel Cabrera and Aramis Ramirez's fWAR this year. Which one do I want for the next 5-6 years?

You know what is much less ancient than 32? 28. Also happens to be the age of the better player.

metswon69
10-28-2012, 01:30 AM
3.1 offensively and 3.8 per 162 offensively. Again, a good player. Offense is what the Cubs need, and the coaches seem to have some ability to coach up the defense. Ross is at 2.7 oWAR per 162 and 1.6 on average. That's huge.

The difference between 2.4 WAR and 1.8 WAR is the same difference between Miguel Cabrera and Aramis Ramirez's fWAR this year. Which one do I want for the next 5-6 years?

You know what is much less ancient than 32? 28. Also happens to be the age of the better player.

Fair enough but that 1.8 rWAR player also allows you to add another significant FA signing or at least more pieces to continually build whereas Upton may not.

Sometimes it's addition by subtraction.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 01:31 AM
If there's a veteran OFer I would sign for less years and money than Upton it would be Victorino and it's not even close. Fast, plays D, has decent power, gets on base, avoids the double play, good baserunner, good postseason veteran...He's going to be a surprisingly good pickup for some contender.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 01:37 AM
Fair enough but that 1.8 rWAR player also allows you to add another significant FA signing or at least more pieces to continually build whereas Upton may not.

Sometimes it's addition by subtraction as well.

Yes, and now you need two players to beat what one Upton gives you. Two roster spots are a big deal to beat one player you could have had for probably a good price in the grand scheme of things. A 28 year old starting CF who can hit to tune of 3+ oWAR in Tropicana is going to be a good buy for someone, particularly someone with a smaller CF to patrol like Wrigley.

Also again, Upton does not stop the continuous build. That's the ultimate strawman in this conversation. The Cubs have their 1.7 WAR OF on a small deal in David DeJesus. It's time for improving on that - the money and player are there.

metswon69
10-28-2012, 01:43 AM
I think Victorino is gonna be overpaid by someone (having made 9.5 million dollars in 2012 alone)

His fWAR dropped considerably this year from last year (5.9 to 3.3)

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1677&position=OF

The wOBA, OPS, and WRC+ weren't particular impressive either. Speed becomes more regressive as a player gets older obviously and he doesn't have that advantage of hitting in the bandbox that was Citizen's Bank anymore.

I don't think he will get the money he expects to get on the FA market.

metswon69
10-28-2012, 01:48 AM
Yes, and now you need two players to beat what one Upton gives you. Two roster spots are a big deal to beat one player you could have had for probably a good price in the grand scheme of things. A 28 year old starting CF who can hit to tune of 3+ oWAR in Tropicana is going to be a good buy for someone, particularly someone with a smaller CF to patrol like Wrigley.

Also again, Upton does not stop the continuous build. That's the ultimate strawman in this conversation. The Cubs have their 1.7 WAR OF on a small deal in David DeJesus. It's time for improving on that - the money and player are there.

Maybe you and me have different expectations of Upton as well.

I think he is overrated and will be overpaid this offseason because it's a weak OF FA market.

Either way, i guess we will find out sooner than later who will have paid for his services.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 01:52 AM
Wouldn't teams be less inclined to pay Victorino big money given his numbers falling? He was under contract for that 9.5, and it came a year after he put up 5.2 bWAR.

I think he gets maybe a 2-4 year deal at ~10 million, and that's not a bad price for a guy who's been a 3.5 bWAR guy over the past 5 years. He's also capable of playing any position in the OF, and has been willing to do so for the better of the team.


I think he is overrated and will be overpaid this offseason because it's a weak OF FA market

A weak OF market is as likely to get guys like Cody Ross overpaid as it is a BJ Upton. The best thing to do is pay the best player for a good price, and 60 million over 5 for Upton is not close to a bad FA price.

metswon69
10-28-2012, 01:57 AM
Wouldn't teams be less inclined to pay him big money given his numbers falling? He was under contract for that 9.5, and it came a year after he put up 5.2 bWAR.

I think he gets maybe a 2-4 year deal at ~10 million, and that's not a bad price for a guy who's been a 3.5 bWAR guy over the past 5 years. He's also capable of playing any position in the OF, and has been willing to do so for the better of the team.

Overpaid in the sense that i believe he will continue to regress and given his money based on his numbers in Philadelphia.

He's still a valuable player but speed for a player over 30 is not something you want to give 10+ million dollars a year to.

There is an interesting article on Fangraphs about him.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/shane-victorinos-one-dimensional-bat/


But then again, maybe the Reds didn’t want a short-side platoon outfielder. That’s what Victorino has been this season, hitting a tremendous .312/.393/.570 (159 wRC+) against lefties but flailing against right-handers with a .234/.294/.328 (68 wRC+) line. Victorino has presented to buying teams a switch-hitter in name only. If the Reds report is true, his one-dimensional bat is scaring teams away.

Victorino has never been a typical switch-hitter. As opposed to a zero-split we see with many switch-hitters, Victorino has always favored hitting right-handed, posting a career .381 wOBA against lefties as opposed to .322 versus righties. He walks less, hits for significantly less power, and has a 17-point lower BABIP as a left-handed batter. This is who Victorino has been for the last four seasons.

Victorino lost the ability to use left field as a left-handed batter in 2010, when he posted a .191 wOBA (8 wRC+) to the opposite field. Since then, Victorino has just eight extra base hits to left — seven doubles and a triple — with five of them coming in the 2011 season. This year, the power to the pull field has disappeared as well. For the first time in his career (outside of 2003′s cup of coffee) Victorino has a wRC+ below 100 as a lefty going to right field, at 73.

Instead of lofting the ball for doubles and home runs, Victorino is pounding the ball into the ground on the right side for outs. His 68.2% ground ball rate is a career high and his 11.4% line drive rate in the split is a career low. And the fly balls aren’t leaving the yard — his 16.7% HR/FB ties a career low (2006, 2008, and 2009 as well).

Victorino still has real value to offer a team, but he hasn’t looked like an everyday major league player this season. His deficiencies as a left-handed batter are getting too widespread to ignore, and it’s unlikely teams will be willing to give up major-league ready talent for a platoon outfielder.

That's a lot of money for a guy some people consider is a platoon OF.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 02:02 AM
Overpaid in the sense that i believe he will continue to regress and given his money based on his numbers in Philadelphia.

He's still a valuable player but speed over 30+ is not something you want to give 10+ million dollars to.


So Cody Ross is a good 30's buy because he had his first good season in years but Victorino is a bad 30's buy for going from star caliber to merely a good starter?

He's averaged 53 XBHs a year over the past three years, including 15 HRs on top of giving you speed, defense, and OBP. Speed will keep going down, but unlike Michael Bourn or Juan Pierre he can hit HRs in the mid-double digits as he has gotten older.

Even better to preserving his longevity under contract - he is a good platoon candidate when platoons are going to be all the rage in the coming years.

metswon69
10-28-2012, 02:09 AM
So Cody Ross is a good 30's buy because he had his first good season in years but Victorino is a bad 30's buy for going from star caliber to merely a good starter?

He's averaged 53 XBHs a year over the past three years, including 15 HRs on top of giving you speed, defense, and OBP. Speed will keep going down, but unlike Michael Bourn or Juan Pierre he can hit HRs in the mid-double digits as he has gotten older.

Even better to preserving his longevity under contract - he is a good platoon candidate when platoons are going to be all the rage in the coming years.

He wasn't particularly good in 53 games with the Dodgers.

His stats in August and September took quite a hit from his time in Philly.

His ISO, wOBA, and OPS also took considerable hits from previous seasons.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/victosh01.shtml

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1677&position=OF

Like i said speed is a tricky attribute and the stats associated with it as well when a player is over 30.

It's easier to guage a Cody Ross because power is a less regressive attribute.

Ross has been a consistent 2 fWAR type player outside of last year. I don't think you can consider that a "first good season in years"

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1760&position=OF

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 02:33 AM
He wasn't particularly good in 53 games with the Dodgers.

Picked up 1.1 WAR in 235 PAs (vs. 1.3 in 431 for the Phillies) total 2.4 for 2012. That's not particularly bad either, and it's a more balanced than Ross' 1.6 bWAR.

Ross was worth 1.6 bWAR last year. He was worth -.1 in 2011, 1.6 in 2010, and 1.4 in 2009. David DeJesus was a slightly better player than Ross, better defensively, ~the same age and price, and is already on the roster. They need another OFer, and the goal should be higher than another but lesser version of David DeJesus.

metswon69
10-28-2012, 03:15 AM
Well defensive metrics are less reliable as we all know.

As for FA, it all depends on what the teams needs are.

Sometimes you sacrifice in other areas to address a specific problem.

Ross, if he doesn't command a lot of money in the FA market can allow you to fill a CO spot and address other areas of need.

The money Upton will get this offseason can afford multiple impact players instead of one especially if he is going to command 60+ million over the next 4-5 years.

Victorino doesn't excite me in the slightest bit either way but it's no doubt Upton provides solid power and a solid SB threat.

So we'll see what he commands in FA.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 03:56 AM
Ross, if he doesn't command a lot of money in the FA market can allow you to fill a CO spot and address other areas of need.

The same can be said of Upton despite the jump in contract he'll get. Upton does not break the Cubs' bank, period. Some poor team can overpay for Cody Ross' 2012.


The money Upton will get this offseason can afford multiple impact players instead of one especially if he is going to command 60+ million over the next 4-5 years

It will take two Ross's to outproduce one Upton, which might cost the same as having one Upton without using two roster spots. Now you have less places to put these multiple floating impact players just waiting for the Cubs to have enough prospects to arrive and accept their pleas to play for them after a half decade of losing.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 04:15 AM
Sometimes you sacrifice in other areas to address a specific problem.

Like payroll, where they have the flexibility to acquire short (1-2) and medium (3-5 maybe 6 if it really came to it) term talent. That makes the roster better, and when the prospects arrive they are making the league minimum to help balance the salary layout of the roster. Their age gives a nice mix with the veterans on the roster as well.

FA should not be expected to be efficient, just as coming up with a great roster built internally should not be expected to be efficient. Both come with their own pluses and minuses, and a good team has a blend of both.

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 04:24 PM
You realize your point is built on a strawman right? If this is the best counter you have to it then you're not making much of a point.

BJ Upton is not a big time FA. 75-80 wins does not mean you have a future great team. These are stupid, arbitrary bars that mean nothing but you really want to give value to because you're married to this nonsensical position.

You really have no idea how to debate and you still have no concept of what a strawman is.


My advice on the topic: Read the Extra 2% by Jonah Keri, then discuss with us further.

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 04:32 PM
The same can be said of Upton despite the jump in contract he'll get. Upton does not break the Cubs' bank, period. Some poor team can overpay for Cody Ross' 2012.



It will take two Ross's to outproduce one Upton, which might cost the same as having one Upton without using two roster spots. Now you have less places to put these multiple floating impact players just waiting for the Cubs to have enough prospects to arrive and accept their pleas to play for them after a half decade of losing.

LOL, seriously?

Cody Ross is a far better signing for the Cubs.

It allows you to move DeJesus to center if you think Jackson isn't ready, and he is just as likely to repeat his 2012 as B.J. Upton is.

In which case, you are probably better off.

Ross
Runs created - 73

wOBA - .345, 113 wRC+

Upton
Runs Created - 76

wOBA- .323, 107 wRC+


Cody Ross will demand what? 5-9 million and hope for a 2-3 year deal?

Upton will get a qualifying offer, cost whoever signs him their 33rd overall pick, and demand more than 13 million per season, and hope for a 5 year deal.


And you want Upton over Ross?

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 04:37 PM
Like payroll, where they have the flexibility to acquire short (1-2) and medium (3-5 maybe 6 if it really came to it) term talent. That makes the roster better, and when the prospects arrive they are making the league minimum to help balance the salary layout of the roster. Their age gives a nice mix with the veterans on the roster as well.

FA should not be expected to be efficient, just as coming up with a great roster built internally should not be expected to be efficient. Both come with their own pluses and minuses, and a good team has a blend of both.

It's been fun showing your debate to a Cubs fan. He just keeps facepalming.


This is NOT how you build a successful organization, in fact, you can't even point to one time in baseball history where something similar was done to a team in the Cubs position and was built successfully.

1. It's stupid. You don't construct your team in free agency, as a Cubs fan, you should be insanely well aware of this after watching your team try to do that very thing several times and it failing repeatedly
2. It won't happen. Theo will not do it. You will sign big named free agents....eventually. But it's not happening this season. Mainly because Theo isn't an idiot. While he isn't amazing or anything, he isn't that stupid, and you have to assume he has learned from his mistakes.
3. You have zero concept how to debate, it's both frustrating and comical. Because I have viewed you as a constructive poster on here, but you have an inability to remain on topic and actually address comments directly. You dance around them like a teenager talking to his parents. This was a good discussion, but there really is no point if you can't be on topic and can't actually debate.

I hope the Cubs do well in the future, but the way you are hoping they do (adding Justin Masterson, B.J. Upton, and hoping for David Wright) isn't going to make it happen, and it won't be happening.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 05:48 PM
It's been fun showing your debate to a Cubs fan. He just keeps facepalming.

Who cares? That's as irrelevant and strawman as the has majority of your argument here.

Mell413
10-28-2012, 06:08 PM
Gato you're wasting your time. Jeffy is one that over values prospects. It's just that simple. i do agree with you though. I'd be pretty pissed if we pass on productive major leaguers because of the 33rd overall pick. Most 2nd round picks sucks. If it was a first round pick that changes things, but I'd take a productive major leaguer over a 2nd round pick everyday of the week. Also, did I really hear someone refer to the Rays as a dynasty? Don't you have to win a WS at least before you get to that point? They have made the playoffs what 3 times in 11 seasons. That doesn't sound like a dynasty to me

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 06:26 PM
Also, did I really hear someone refer to the Rays as a dynasty?

Same person.

See - the Rays did it The Right Way. That, of course, means winning alot of games for a low low price, the goal of every franchise.

That said: AREN'T YOU AND WOLF CUBS FANS?!?!?! Facepalm me! This is real debating!

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 06:31 PM
LOL, seriously?

And you want Upton over Ross?

BJ Upton: 23.1 fWAR in 966 games

Cody Ross: 13.6 fWAR in 887 games

Upton: 13.5 bWAR with 19 oWAR

Ross: 10.6 bWAR with 9.3 oWAR

LOL

LOL seriously!?!?

Upton: 28 HRs in 2012 at the Trop

Ross: 22 HRs in 2012 in Fenway

Upton: 232 SBs

Ross: 20 SBs

Upton: 10.6 BB%

Ross: 7.4 BB%

Upton: CF

Ross: LF/RF, neither of which he's a good defender at

LOL yes, I do take Upton over Ross 10 times out of 10 and I bet I win 9 times out of 10.

Your way of building is stupid, plain and simple. You overvalue prospects and mediocrity, and I am looking for the real thing. In short, Cody Ross is the definition of mediocrity and we already have one of those (DeJesus), and building through solely prospects ensures that MAYBE the Cubs can be where the Royals and Pirates are in 20 years.

metswon69
10-28-2012, 06:31 PM
Also, did I really hear someone refer to the Rays as a dynasty? Don't you have to win a WS at least before you get to that point? They have made the playoffs what 3 times in 11 seasons. That doesn't sound like a dynasty to me

When you have won the 3rd most games in the last 5 years behind the Yankees and the Phillies with a payroll that is a 1/3 of the Phillies and in the case of the Yankees almost 1/5, you can consider that a dynasty.

The consistency that franchise has been able to have without the benefit of adding significant payroll is one of the more amazing things in sports.

Mell413
10-28-2012, 06:37 PM
They made the playoffs 3 times. They haven't even won a WS yet. Yes I realize the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot, but I think my point still stands. Let's wait a few years before we start calling them a dynasty. Your standards are pretty low. I'd argue this last Phillies run is more of a dynasty than TB. TB is on a nice run, but it's not near a dynasty. I don't see what payroll has to do with anything

metswon69
10-28-2012, 06:40 PM
They made the playoffs 3 times. They haven't even won a WS yet. Yes I realize the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot, but I think my point still stands. Let's wait a few years before we start calling them a dynasty. Your standards are pretty low. I'd argue this last Phillies run is more of a dynasty than TB. TB is on a nice run, but it's not near a dynasty

Do you know how difficult it is to compete with those type of payrolls?

They aren't competing even in the same planet or galaxy payroll wise as the Yankees and Phillies are.

Again 3rd most wins in the last 5 years comparatively to two of the biggest markets in sports is really impressive no matter which way you spin it.

How many teams are able to compete year in and year out with the one of the 2 or 3 worst attendances in baseball?

Btw its 3 times in the playoffs in the last 5 years.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 06:41 PM
They made the playoffs 3 times. They haven't even won a WS yet. Yes I realize the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot, but I think my point still stands. Let's wait a few years before we start calling them a dynasty. Your standards are pretty low. I'd argue this last Phillies run is more of a dynasty than TB. TB is on a nice run, but it's not near a dynasty. I don't see what payroll has to do with anything

Yeah but payroll and contracts. Come on, those are the two most important things. The Rays don't win WSs at 1/3 of the price of the Phillies. Dynasty baby.



Btw its 3 times in the playoffs in the last 5 years.

Which is every playoff appearance in the 15 year history of the franchise.

So this means the early 2000's A's were a dynasty? They won more games than the Rays did, fielded more dominant teams, and also couldn't win a WS. A's or Rays - which is the greatest dynasty in history?


How many teams are able to compete year in and year out with the one of the 2 or 3 worst attendances in baseball?

In actuality the Rays have competed for 1/3 of their franchise's short existence, which happen to be the most recent years.

What they've done is great for themselves and maybe is a model to poor teams/cheap owners who don't want to spend some of the massive amounts of ad revenue owners are raking in. To actually tie the word dynasty to them you have to do a little more, except apparently in your world where things are easy, obvious, and everyone is a winner.

Mell413
10-28-2012, 06:46 PM
Do you know how difficult it is to compete with those type of payrolls?

They aren't competing even in the same planet or galaxy payroll wise as the Yankees and Phillies are.

Again 3rd most wins in the last 5 years comparatively to two of the biggest markets in sports is really impressive no matter which way you spin it.

How many teams are able to compete year in and year out with the one of the 2 or 3 worst attendances in baseball?

Btw its 3 times in the playoffs in the last 5 years.

Never said it wasn't impressive. It's a nice run, but it's not a dynasty, which is all I was trying to say. They have to do a little more before I start believing their way is the only way you can win. I thought this board says money doesn't mean anything, but now all of the sudden people use payroll as a reason to elevate the Rays. They have made the playoffs 3 times in the last 5 years, but their previous seasons count too. Nice run? Sure. Dynasty? Hell no

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 06:48 PM
Gato you're wasting your time. Jeffy is one that over values prospects. It's just that simple. i do agree with you though. I'd be pretty pissed if we pass on productive major leaguers because of the 33rd overall pick. Most 2nd round picks sucks. If it was a first round pick that changes things, but I'd take a productive major leaguer over a 2nd round pick everyday of the week. Also, did I really hear someone refer to the Rays as a dynasty? Don't you have to win a WS at least before you get to that point? They have made the playoffs what 3 times in 11 seasons. That doesn't sound like a dynasty to me

I'd say having the third most wins over the last 5 seasons is some version of a productive dynasty. Being in the AL East isn't their fault.

And noteable second round picks
Kipnis, Giancarlo Stanton, Jordan Zimmerman, Freddie Freeman, Zach Cozart, Trevor Cahill, Jon Jay, Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson, Chris Tillman, Yunel Escobar, Chase Headley, Dustin Pedroia, Hunter Pence, Yovanni Gallardo, Kurt Suzuki, Andre Ethier, Scott Baker, Joey Votto, Jon Lester, Brian McCann, Jonahthan Broxton, Dan Haren, JJ Hardy, Joel Hanrahan, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Ludwick, Adam Dunn, Brandon Inge, Chase Utley, Randy Wolf, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Beltran, Jarrod Washburn, Sean Casey, Troy Glaus, Scott Rolen, Jeff Suppan, Todd Helton, Jason Giambi, Arthur Rhodes, Albert Belle, Kevin Tapani, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Al Leiter, Barry Bonds, Barry Larkin, David Wells

metswon69
10-28-2012, 06:48 PM
Tampa Bay's Payroll in 2008: $ 43,745,597 (97-65) Lost to the Phillies in the WS.

Payroll in 2010: 72,847,133 (96-66) Lost to Rangers in DS. (Only year with semi competitive payroll and even that isn't competitive compared to much of their competition in the AL East)

Payroll in 2011: 42,171,308 (91-71) Lost to Rangers in DS.

Compare those numbers to the Yankees

2012: $209,792,900
2011: $207,047,964
2010: $213,359,389
2009: $201,449,189
2008: $209,081,577

Or the Phillies

2012: $172,093,902
2011: $165,976,381
2010: $138,178,379
2009: $113,004,046
2008: $ 98,269,880

And the Rays were 7 games better than the Phillies in 2012 with a 1/3 of their payroll.

You're right though there is no distinct advantage there...

Mell413
10-28-2012, 06:52 PM
I didn't say you couldn't find decent picks in the second round. Nice list, but still doesn't change the fact that MOST 2nd round picks suck. Also Utley was a first rounder. Doesn't mean a whole lot, but it's worth mentioning

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 06:58 PM
I didn't say you couldn't find decent picks in the second round. Nice list, but still doesn't change the fact that MOST 2nd round picks suck. Also Utley was a first rounder. Doesn't mean a whole lot, but it's worth mentioning

Was drafted by the Dodgers in 97 in the second round, but didn't sign.

And for a rebuilding team, the 33rd overall pick is important. It's a huge part of the process. Maybe that specific pick won't pan out, but it's the overall mentality that you should be stocking up every pick you can.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 07:06 PM
And for a rebuilding team, the 33rd overall pick is important.

# of facts you've used to support this: 0.

# of opinions you've used to support this: Entirely too many.

The #33 pick is not a huge part of the process. You don't lose 101 wins to gain the #33 pick. The #2 pick is what will make or break the 2013 MLB draft for the Cubs, period. It is FACTUALLY, and I've linked you the data as well as spelled it out in earlier posts, proven the first is where the Cubs are most likely to get a talent at all, let alone an impact talent.

Your overall mentality hands Brett Jackson the CF job because he was once hyped as a good prospect. I'll pass on that mentality, it's a losing one.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 07:11 PM
Since we can't judge the 2012, 2011, and 2010 #33 overall picks yet - here's a look at '09 and before:

'09 - Steve Baron
'08 - Bradley Holt
'07 - Jon Gilmore
'06 - Emmanuel Burriss
'05 - John Drennen
'04 - Justin Orenduff
'03 - Omar Quintanilla
'02 - Luke Hagerty
'01 - Jeff Mathis
'00 - Dustin McGowan

Lol. Two of those were even relevant as prospects (Mathis and McGowan)...This is such a joke.

Nothing on the other side of this conversation is supported by a significant amount of facts.

Mell413
10-28-2012, 07:23 PM
Was drafted by the Dodgers in 97 in the second round, but didn't sign.

And for a rebuilding team, the 33rd overall pick is important. It's a huge part of the process. Maybe that specific pick won't pan out, but it's the overall mentality that you should be stocking up every pick you can.

If the Cubs are depending on second round picks to turn this thing around we are in trouble. If we are talking about first round picks that changes things slightly. However, why would a team that wants to win pass on productive major league players because of a 2nd round pick? If you go back to the great draft of 2005 and look at those second round picks there were 4 guys that turned out to be good major leaguers (Headley, Hundley, Slowey, Escobar). 4/30 doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence in that pick turning out. Passing on major league players for 2nd round picks seems like something a losing team would do. Since the Cubs like losing they will probably do this

Edit: I forgot you were talking about the # 33, which was in the supplemental round. Still I think my point stands that MOST of the talent is in the first

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 08:55 PM
If the Cubs are depending on second round picks to turn this thing around we are in trouble.
You are obviously not depending on the second rounder. But he, along with all the other picks in this next draft are important for the future of the franchise, as are all their drafts.

Ideally, you never lose any draft picks because of free agent signings.

The Cardinals for example have not since the Jason Isringhausen signing in 2002.

I'm not saying the Cardinals are the example you should follow, but they put together basically 90 win teams each year with over 50% players each roster coming through the farm system because of the draft. It's important facet of the game, that teams shouldn't ignore, especially rebuilding teams.


If we are talking about first round picks that changes things slightly. However, why would a team that wants to win pass on productive major league players because of a 2nd round pick? If you go back to the great draft of 2005 and look at those second round picks there were 4 guys that turned out to be good major leaguers (Headley, Hundley, Slowey, Escobar). 4/30 doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence in that pick turning out. Passing on major league players for 2nd round picks seems like something a losing team would do. Since the Cubs like losing they will probably do this
It's just the overall mindset. If you continously ignore the draft to pay for top priced free agents, the organization will eventually be too weak to sustain. Signing someone like Upton could be more valuable on the field than what that second round pick could ever be, that's certainly possible.

It should be noted, that not having that second round pick will also lower the Cubs signing bonus budget in next years draft as well.

This years 33rd overall pick was high schooler Zach Effin

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1201503-zach-eflin-to-padres-video-highlights-scouting-report-and-analysis

(I know it's bleacher report, but still)

Wouldn't the Cubs like to have a kid like that added to their system that they have control of for his first 6 years in the big leagues? It would certainly help. If he does make it, he would certainly be productive for the Cubs when they need him the most.

By adding Upton, he is joining a last place team, he will add them what, 3 wins? This isn't an 80-90 win team were talking about. He isn't going to make them a first place team, or help them win the division or make the playoffs. He is being paid to block a potential prospect, lose a prospect, and play outfield on a last place team. This is a lot like the Alfonso Soriano signing. Know what pick it cost the Cubs in the second round to sign Soriano?

Jordan Zimmerman.

3rd pick in the second round was forfeited in the 07 draft by the Cubs, to the Nationals as compensation for the Cubs signing Soriano after his 40/40 season.

Bet the Cubs wish they had Jordan Zimmerman instead of Alfonso Soriano

This is in many ways, the same thing.


Edit: I forgot you were talking about the # 33, which was in the supplemental round. Still I think my point stands that MOST of the talent is in the first
I never said it wasn't, and never disputed that. I have never compared the value of a second round pick to that of a first round pick. Senor made that argument in a strawman attempting to diminish the value of the second rounder. Obviously more talent comes from the first round, I've never said anything to the contrary.

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 09:00 PM
# of facts you've used to support this: 0.

# of opinions you've used to support this: Entirely too many.

The #33 pick is not a huge part of the process. You don't lose 101 wins to gain the #33 pick. The #2 pick is what will make or break the 2013 MLB draft for the Cubs, period. It is FACTUALLY, and I've linked you the data as well as spelled it out in earlier posts, proven the first is where the Cubs are most likely to get a talent at all, let alone an impact talent.

Your overall mentality hands Brett Jackson the CF job because he was once hyped as a good prospect. I'll pass on that mentality, it's a losing one.


I said I'm not responding to you any further on this topic because all you do is strawman (which you again did twice in this post). You can't stay on topic, and you can't discuss like an adult. Mell on the other hand, I am happy to discuss with.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 09:01 PM
Wouldn't the Cubs like to have a kid like that added to their system that they have control of for his first 6 years in the big leagues?

1. He has to make the big leagues AND be really good to really care about the 6 years.

2. The Cubs have plenty of guys like Zach Effin. They need more guys like Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Garza, Jeff Samardzija, James Russell, and better.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 09:04 PM
I said I'm not responding to you any further on this topic because all you do is strawman (which you again did twice in this post). You can't stay on topic, and you can't discuss like an adult. Mell on the other hand, I am happy to discuss with.

It's OK to admit that I made my points better than you did. No need to cry strawman every time you struggle to make a counterpoint. It's not a get out of jail free card, you make no competently written and supported counter to anything. It's actually insulting to the intelligence of other posters that all you keep doing is crying strawman and thinking that's a way out out of saying things that have little to no foundation in fact and logic.

Also, every point you think you have made so far is a strawman. Also also, I will keep replying to you as you say a bunch of things that make no sense that I plan to continue calling out.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 09:16 PM
Bet the Cubs wish they had Jordan Zimmerman instead of Alfonso Soriano

Between 2007 and 2012 the Cubs have gotten ~20 fWAR out of Soriano. Zimmerman has picked up 8.5 fWAR over parts of 4 seasons.

In 2007 and 2008, when the Cubs were one of the best teams in NL and first in the Central, Soriano was worth 11 WAR. Zimmerman in 2007 and 2008 was working his way up the minors.

So now the agenda is that it's not just when you're rebuilding that you avoid FAs, it's avoiding them altogether. None of it is based in hindsight, revisionist history, and/or strawman points. None at all. Nope. Not a drop of hindsight.

northsider
10-28-2012, 09:25 PM
Just popped in to say that while it most likely isn't next year, I call BS on thinking it is going to be a few years before we try to be competitive. In fact I would bet my life he doesn't sit on his hands and the money we have in order to wait to strike gold on a few lottery ticket minor leaguers.

It's also funny that people think Theo won't open a pocket book when it was heavily reported he was in on the Fielder/Pujols/Darvish/Cespedes sweepstakes. He will pick and choose his battle but, must agree with Gato in there technically is no wrong or right time to go in on a FA market.

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 09:25 PM
Soriano has 6.3 rWAR as a Cub and has been paid 97 million thus far

Zimmerman has had 7.6 rWAR as a National, and has been paid 3.05 million.

Zimmerman is under team control for another 3 seasons. Soriano is under team control for 2 more seasons at 36 million.

There is no argument that the Cubs would be better off with Soriano than with with Zimmerman.

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 09:27 PM
Just popped in to say that while it most likely isn't next year, I call BS on thinking it is going to be a few years before we try to be competitive. In fact I would bet my life he doesn't sit on his hands and the money we have in order to wait to strike gold on a few lottery ticket minor leaguers.

It's also funny that people think Theo won't open a pocket book when it was heavily reported he was in on the Fielder/Pujols/Darvish/Cespedes sweepstakes. He will pick and choose his battle but, must agree with Gato in there technically is no wrong or right time to go in on a FA market.
I'm sure he will make some moves and some signings, but the draft is his focus, along with a new scouting director. It will be the focus of the organization.

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 09:27 PM
It's OK to admit that I made my points better than you did. No need to cry strawman every time you struggle to make a counterpoint. It's not a get out of jail free card, you make no competently written and supported counter to anything. It's actually insulting to the intelligence of other posters that all you keep doing is crying strawman and thinking that's a way out out of saying things that have little to no foundation in fact and logic.

Also, every point you think you have made so far is a strawman. Also also, I will keep replying to you as you say a bunch of things that make no sense that I plan to continue calling out.

How do you still not know what a strawman is?

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 09:41 PM
How do you still not know what a strawman is?

According to how you use it pretty much any argument that disagrees with you to a point where you can't competently refute it with proof is a strawman.


Soriano has 6.3 rWAR as a Cub and has been paid 97 million thus far

Zimmerman has had 7.6 rWAR as a National, and has been paid 3.05 million.

Zimmerman is under team control for another 3 seasons. Soriano is under team control for 2 more seasons at 36 million.

There is no argument that the Cubs would be better off with Soriano than with with Zimmerman

No hindsight involved at all.

There is a 100% winnable argument that the Cubs of 2007 and 2008, division winners and the 2008 team won the most games in baseball, are better off with Soriano than with their precious draft pick. There is no garauntee the Cubs draft Zimmerman if they had that pick. There is no guarantee that Zimmerman comes out of the Cubs system the same way he comes out of the Nationals system. This is all nonsense, but you continue to trot out weak arguments like this.

Straw. Man. Hindsight based strawman at that...

Oh and again, I thought you approved of spending on FAs to complete a roster? Soriano was one of the top players on one of the top rosters in the league during 2007 and 2008, and even last year he was putting up another 3 fWAR season. Again I ask - now you switch your agenda to no FAs, contending or not? You can't even keep your points straight that's how bad this has gotten...

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 09:43 PM
According to how you use it pretty much any argument that disagrees with you to a point where you can't competently refute it with proof is a strawman.



No hindsight involved at all.

There is a 100% winnable argument that the Cubs of 2007 and 2008, division winners and the 2008 team won the most games in baseball, are better off with Soriano than with their precious draft pick. There is no garauntee the Cubs draft Zimmerman if they had that pick. There is no guarantee that Zimmerman comes out of the Cubs system the same way he comes out of the Nationals system. This is all nonsense, but you continue to trot out weak arguments like this.

Straw. Man. Hindsight based strawman at that...

Dude, look up the definition. I already gave you an explanation, but since you don't read the posts, I guess you didn't notice it. Just look it up.

You don't stay on topic, there is zero point in discussing with you. Your posts were repeatedly rude and condescending without merit and you strawmanned. You created arguments that were not there to refute my statements. For example:

I said the 33rd overall pick is important.

You say it's not important because it's not as important as the first round pick pick.

Well no ****, but I never said that, never alluded to that, never inferred that, I just said the 33rd overall pick is important, and that's it. You saying the first rounder is more important so the 33rd overall pick doesn't matter is a strawman, I never said that.

This is why you can't be debated with, because you make up arguments that were never stated to make yourself seem correct, when in fact, you never even addressed the discussion, you just created your own discussion and went from there.

I have no problem standing behind the argument that signing an overpriced outfielder to decline on your team much like Alfonso Soriano did and has is worse than drafting Jordan Zimmerman. Cubs fans would fall over themselves if they could trade Soriano for Zimmerman straight up, contracts traded too.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 09:53 PM
Dude, look up the definition.

Dude, come up with a competent, supported argument on your points. Dude, stop strawmanning me with strawman arguments. Dude, do something besides offer me your opinion, as fact, on how the Cubs and teams in a similar situation should be building their roster (based around strawman points). Dude, stop overrating prospects, especially Brett Jackson for some reason. Dude, stop trying to placate all of that by telling me that you really want the Cubs to be good and that all I'm offering you are strawman arguments.

This has been embarrassing for you and your facepalming Cubs fan friend sitting next to you or behind you or wherever that person is. Three other Cubs fans have come into this thread to offer their opinion in this debate, and all have disagreed with your ideas of how the roster should be built. You offer no specifics, little to no proof, no insight, and just keep pumping out the same opinions over and over insisting they are right. That is not how you debate, it's not how I have debated with you, and our interactions in this thread is all the worse for it.

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 10:11 PM
I said the 33rd overall pick is important.

And I have proven to you that it is not. The career expected WAR from the #33 pick is at less than 3 WAR. The #1-3 picks are far more likely to have a 20+ WAR career than any other spots in the draft. These are facts. These were linked. You choose to ignore them and keep regurgitating out this opinion of yours. It's not true, and you should stop insisting that it is.


You say it's not important because it's not as important as the first round pick pick.

No, it's not important because it's *far* less productive. The fact that this can not sink in with you does not make it any less true. The fact that you can not even comprehend what I have shown you and said to you about this is puzzling at best. Having a prospect just for the hell of having a prospect is not what building great minor league farm systems and major league rosters is about. You don't get that, and that is on you.


Well no ****, but I never said that, never alluded to that, never inferred that, I just said the 33rd overall pick is important, and that's it. You saying the first rounder is more important so the 33rd overall pick doesn't matter is a strawman, I never said that.

For about the 100th time:

The value in expected first 6 year WAR and career WAR drops dramatically after the first three picks in the draft. The #33 pick is not an important pick to the rebuild because historically you do not find great talents there. This remains true even if you can go out and find me players who were drafted in the second round and become very good to even great MLB players.


This is why you can't be debated with, because you make up arguments that were never stated to make yourself seem correct, when in fact, you never even addressed the discussion, you just created your own discussion and went from there.

And you cannot be debated with because you refuse to even acknowledge anything that disproves what you opine to be true. You insist on being right rather than arguing your point well enough that others can acknowledge you being right. These are not good qualities.


I have no problem standing behind the argument that signing an overpriced outfielder to decline on your team much like Alfonso Soriano did and has is worse than drafting Jordan Zimmerman. Cubs fans would fall over themselves if they could trade Soriano for Zimmerman straight up, contracts traded too.

Another strawman, another hindsight based strawman, another who cares point.

So then you are willing to acknowledge and accept that you contradict your own point, that you buy FAs to tighten up good rosters, to make this new point? This is your standard of a good debater?

Jeffy25
10-28-2012, 10:13 PM
And you wonder why I'm done communicating with you :laugh2:

SenorGato
10-28-2012, 10:14 PM
And you wonder why I'm done communicating with you :laugh2:

You can't even keep that straight. You've replied over and over, and this is just a reply without a quote.

Jesus this is sad...

Mell413
10-29-2012, 12:09 AM
You are obviously not depending on the second rounder. But he, along with all the other picks in this next draft are important for the future of the franchise, as are all their drafts.

Ideally, you never lose any draft picks because of free agent signings.

The Cardinals for example have not since the Jason Isringhausen signing in 2002.

I'm not saying the Cardinals are the example you should follow, but they put together basically 90 win teams each year with over 50% players each roster coming through the farm system because of the draft. It's important facet of the game, that teams shouldn't ignore, especially rebuilding teams.


It's just the overall mindset. If you continously ignore the draft to pay for top priced free agents, the organization will eventually be too weak to sustain. Signing someone like Upton could be more valuable on the field than what that second round pick could ever be, that's certainly possible.

It should be noted, that not having that second round pick will also lower the Cubs signing bonus budget in next years draft as well.

This years 33rd overall pick was high schooler Zach Effin

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1201503-zach-eflin-to-padres-video-highlights-scouting-report-and-analysis

(I know it's bleacher report, but still)

Wouldn't the Cubs like to have a kid like that added to their system that they have control of for his first 6 years in the big leagues? It would certainly help. If he does make it, he would certainly be productive for the Cubs when they need him the most.

By adding Upton, he is joining a last place team, he will add them what, 3 wins? This isn't an 80-90 win team were talking about. He isn't going to make them a first place team, or help them win the division or make the playoffs. He is being paid to block a potential prospect, lose a prospect, and play outfield on a last place team. This is a lot like the Alfonso Soriano signing. Know what pick it cost the Cubs in the second round to sign Soriano?

Jordan Zimmerman.

3rd pick in the second round was forfeited in the 07 draft by the Cubs, to the Nationals as compensation for the Cubs signing Soriano after his 40/40 season.

Bet the Cubs wish they had Jordan Zimmerman instead of Alfonso Soriano

This is in many ways, the same thing.


I never said it wasn't, and never disputed that. I have never compared the value of a second round pick to that of a first round pick. Senor made that argument in a strawman attempting to diminish the value of the second rounder. Obviously more talent comes from the first round, I've never said anything to the contrary.

There's a lot to read here. Give me some time and I will respond back when I have more time

SenorGato
10-29-2012, 07:32 AM
It should be noted, that not having that second round pick will also lower the Cubs signing bonus budget in next years draft as well.

Like many things, this was acknowledged at the beginning.

xxplayerxx23
10-29-2012, 10:25 AM
Stupid Yankees, Not going to bring Pineda up :pity:

quinnjack
10-29-2012, 01:24 PM
Stupid Yankees, Not going to bring Pineda up :pity:

What?

jlohm1
10-29-2012, 02:03 PM
I'm more curious if anything, what they will do with Ludwick (option obviously won't be picked up by Luddy).

will they re-sign him?
sorry i didn't see this post sooner.
all I've read is that the Reds are "interested" in re-signing Luddy. I suspect they will, unless the Reds find a leadoff hitter that plays LF.

they are moving Hamilton to CF, i think they can let Stubbs go since he's arbitration eligible, either way I doubt he will be here next year, but Hamilton won't be here until 2014 at the earliest. so think they'll re-sign Ludwick and then try to get another CF to bat leadoff.

Jeffy25
10-29-2012, 02:50 PM
^ I always thought you would end up with Denard Span personally

jlohm1
10-29-2012, 03:07 PM
^ I always thought you would end up with Denard Span personally

It's possible. I think they may want to go with a cheaper player with only a 1-2 year commitment though

Black Betsy
10-30-2012, 04:28 AM
Arizona Diamondbacks
Rotation
1.Felix Hernandez
2.Daniel Hudson
3.Trevor Cahill
4.Wade Miley
5. Trevor Bauer

C-Miguel Montero
1b-Paul Goldschmidt
2b-Aaron Hill
3b-Matt Davidson
SS-Elvis Andrus
RF-Justin Upton
CF-Adam Eaton
LF-Gerrado Parra

Black Betsy
10-30-2012, 04:44 AM
And we are coming for Ryan Zimmerman to.

Jeffy25
10-30-2012, 09:59 AM
So Felix Hernandez, Elvis Andrus (and you retain Justin Upton) and you get Ryan Zimmerman?

Black Betsy
10-30-2012, 10:26 AM
So Felix Hernandez, Elvis Andrus (and you retain Justin Upton) and you get Ryan Zimmerman?

Ian Kennedy,Ryan Wheeler,Archie Bradley,Wille Bloomquest for Felix Sounds possible to much holes to fill for the M's and the d'backs still want a starter

Jason Kubel,Tyler Skaggs,a low spec for elvis this will give Texas a big bat a young top of the rotation pitcher, the snakes want to get ride of one outfielder either Parra or Kubel I think they will keep para because of how valuable he is on Defense.

Now Zimmerman is maybe not going to happen but a Corbin,Davidson,holemberg trade will make sense.

rkelly7
10-30-2012, 12:38 PM
Baltimore Orioles

Yours:


C: Matt Wieters
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Robert Andino
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Manny Machado
LF: Angel Pagan
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Jim Thome/Nolan Reimold

SP1: Wei-Yin Chen
SP2: Jason Hammel
SP3: Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP4: Chris Tillman
SP5: Jake Arrieta

Mine:

Baltimore Orioles

C: Matt Wieters (signs an extension that covers two free agent years)
1B: Mark Reynolds (11 mill option declined, signs 2 year 17 mill extension)
2B: Jeff Keppinger (1 year, 5 million)
SS: J.J. Hardy
3B: Manny Machado
LF: Nolan Reimold/Nate McLouth
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Chris Davis

SP1: Dan Haren (2 year, 27 million dollar deal)
SP2: Jason Hammel
SP3: Wei-Yin Chen
SP4: Miguel Gonzalez
SP5: Chris Tillman

rkelly7
10-30-2012, 12:47 PM
Braves:

C: Russell Martin
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Dan Uggla
SS: Andrelton Simmons
3B: Martin Prado
LF: Nick SwisherCF: Denard Span
RF: Jason Heyward

SP1: Tim Hudson
SP2: Kris Medlen
SP3: Mike Minor
SP4: Paul Maholm
SP5: Randall Delgado

Why wouldn't you just pony up a little more moneyand retain Bourne? Bourne> Swisher

rkelly7
10-30-2012, 01:11 PM
Chris Davis will be the full-time DH and spot starter in the field when needed. I doubt they don't bring Reynolds back, and I doubt Andino is the team's starting second basemen. Even if they don't make any changes, Flaherty would be their starting 2B, and don't forget about Brian Roberts who will try to play once again and is due $10 million.

Thome could come back, but in a pinch hitting and spot DH role. Reimold could certainly be a starter, but if he is, he will be the LF. I expect them to bring McLouth back.

There's no reason to think they'd go after Dice-K, and there's no reason to think that Miguel Gonzalez will not be in the rotation.

Arrieta's days are numbered. Matusz has a better chance of starting the year in the rotation.

I expect Hardy is going to be on the trade block this summer, as well.

Only way the O's are trading hardy is if we get an ace back in the deal. Moving Machado to third and Reynolds to first solidifed the O's defense as the best in the bigs over the last two months of the season. Hardy is affordbale, 7 mill a year, plays amazing D, and can swat homers as a SS. That's very hard to find. Unless we get a legit ace and a third baseman to replace Machado (since he'd be moving tio SS) I find this very unlikely.

On the other hand, a near elite SS with a 2 year 14million left on his contract would look enticing to just about every MLB team..

rkelly7
10-30-2012, 01:35 PM
New York Yankees

1. Derek Jeter- Ss
2. Ichiro Suzuki- LF
3. Robinson Cano- 2B
4. Mark Texeira- 1B
5. Justin Upton- RF
6. Alex Rodriguez- DH
7. Brian McCann/Russell Martin- C
8. Anthony Rendon- 3B
9. Brett Gardner- CF

SP1: C.C. Sabathia
SP2: Hiroki Kuroda
SP3: Andy Pettite
SP4: Haren/Lohse/peavy/or Hughes if not traded.
SP5: Ross Detweiler

How did Detweiler, Rendon, Mccann, & Upton get on the Yankees you might ask? Here's how vv

Arizona Get: Chase Headley, Eduardo Nunez, & Adam Warren

Padres Get: Chris Johnson, Ivan Nova, & a pitching prospect from Dbacks

Yankees: Justin Upton and 1 mid tier prospects from both Dbacks and Padres.


Nationals Get: Granderson, Chamberlain, Betances, & Phelps

Yankees Get: Anthony Rendon, Tyler Moore and Ross Detweiler

Braves Decline option on McCann and yanks pick him up on two year deal. If not Russell Martin comes back.

Cashman is going to give up more than ova, Nunezz and Warren if he wants to land Upton...

IMO, Yanks would be VERY smart to trade the Grandy man, just don't know if the Nats are a fit.

Black Betsy
10-30-2012, 02:26 PM
Cashman is going to give up more than ova, Nunezz and Warren if he wants to land Upton...

IMO, Yanks would be VERY smart to trade the Grandy man, just don't know if the Nats are a fit.

Upton is worth the whole yankee's farm

rkelly7
10-30-2012, 02:38 PM
with Betances and Banuelos flopping, I'd have to agree. No way they land Upton. Unless it's BJ and they trade grandy.

Jeffy25
10-30-2012, 02:45 PM
I wouldn't trade Gary Sanchez and Mason Williams for Justin Upton

Mr. LA
10-30-2012, 02:46 PM
Dodgers will get two more HUGE contarct players... bank on it

Vintage
10-30-2012, 03:39 PM
SS Derek Jeter (R)
CF Michael Bourn (L)
RF Justin Upton (R)
2B Robinson Cano (L)
1B Mark Teixeira (S)
DH Raul Ibanez (L)
3B Alex Rodriguez (R)
C Russell Martin (R)
LF Brett Gardner (L)

Nunez - SS / 3B
(backup)

Black Betsy
10-30-2012, 05:39 PM
I wouldn't trade Gary Sanchez and Mason Williams for Justin Upton

seriously? two prospects that really haven't proved nothing? for a 25 year old mvp type player.Especially a catcher, catcher's are mostly flops. Especially Yankee's catcher's( Navarro,montero"Maybe",duncan,just to many to name)
I wouldn't trade Upton for the yankee's top 3 prospects to be honest.

Black Betsy
10-30-2012, 05:44 PM
Mason might not see the majors till 2015 plus what? hasn't he been hurt like twice in the last 2 seasons and I mean serious injuries? Gary sanchez is a catcher that hasn't seen low A ball,plus his defense somehow gets worst and worst.

GA16Angels
10-30-2012, 05:50 PM
It's possible. I think they may want to go with a cheaper player with only a 1-2 year commitment though

Coco Crisp would probably be a good option for you guys.

GA16Angels
10-30-2012, 05:52 PM
SS Derek Jeter (R)
CF Michael Bourn (L)
RF Justin Upton (R)
2B Robinson Cano (L)
1B Mark Teixeira (S)
DH Raul Ibanez (L)
3B Alex Rodriguez (R)
C Russell Martin (R)
LF Brett Gardner (L)

Nunez - SS / 3B
(backup)

I thought the Yankees were trying to lower payroll. I suspect they'll look to improve the bullpen and rotation before looking to upgrade the offense.

Jeffy25
10-30-2012, 06:08 PM
Mason might not see the majors till 2015 plus what? hasn't he been hurt like twice in the last 2 seasons and I mean serious injuries? Gary sanchez is a catcher that hasn't seen low A ball,plus his defense somehow gets worst and worst.

He was in High A for 185 PA this season and is heading to Double A next season at the age of 20....and he can catch defensively at the major league level.

Both are highly projectable, and Upton has shown issues, mainly the .785 OPS for a corner outfielder.

He is young, he is good, but he is going to be expensive, and who knows if he will ever really be that consistent .900 OPS Right Fielder.

If I'm the Yankees, I would have to not give up too much to get Upton when there are other possibilities out there.

Upton is an exciting player, no question....but he just shows flashes of it, he doesn't seem to maintain it. Consistency is important.

Black Betsy
10-30-2012, 06:18 PM
He was in High A for 185 PA this season and is heading to Double A next season at the age of 20....and he can catch defensively at the major league level.

Both are highly projectable, and Upton has shown issues, mainly the .785 OPS for a corner outfielder.

He is young, he is good, but he is going to be expensive, and who knows if he will ever really be that consistent .900 OPS Right Fielder.

If I'm the Yankees, I would have to not give up too much to get Upton when there are other possibilities out there.

Upton is an exciting player, no question....but he just shows flashes of it, he doesn't seem to maintain it. Consistency is important.

Upton was hurt all season and the Yankee's caring about 3 year 38mil? It's hard developing young catchers, the Yankee's would do anything for a right handed bat in that line up. plus Upton really didn't have a bad year even with that thumb injury.

carljam1
10-30-2012, 06:33 PM
seriously? two prospects that really haven't proved nothing? for a 25 year old mvp type player.Especially a catcher, catcher's are mostly flops. Especially Yankee's catcher's( Navarro,montero"Maybe",duncan,just to many to name)
I wouldn't trade Upton for the yankee's top 3 prospects to be honest.

Just saying, Duncan wasn't a catching prospect.

And all prospects are hit or miss, look how many "can't miss" prospects did just that. But Upton had a very down year this year, sure he has great abilities, but he hasn't been able to put up consistent MVP numbers like he is capable of. Also, he definitely has some attitude issues, whether or not those are resolved I don't know.

I wouldn't take Upton for those two prospects because I don't like Upton, and I question how well he would fair in NY. You like Upton and wouldn't take a trade from the Yankees for him. We should both hope they don't do business then.

GasMan
10-30-2012, 09:31 PM
You can't even keep that straight. You've replied over and over, and this is just a reply without a quote.

Jesus this is sad...

I read through all the posts and think you and Jeffy are arguing different things.

I think you are making the point that Upton and Wright are significantly better players than what the Cubs fielded last year at those positions which would make the club better in 2013. Because a lot of the better players on the Cubs are younger or in the minors, you see the team getting better around these marque players over their contracts possibly drastically over the next couple years because you think the farm system has improved and the Cubs have money to spend even if it may be inefficient spending. Is that close?

I think the point Jeffy is making is that he doesn't see Upton and Wright making the Cubs good enough to make the playoffs and so it's not worth the money. I think what he is advocating is that if the Cubs wait a couple more years to let their good young players and prospects improve to point where they are a better team (85 win-ish?) then adding a couple free agents could get them to a playoff team. I think he sees buying into marque player premature because they are on the downside of their career which means as your young players are getting better, they are getting worse. (Sorry if I misrepresented your argument)

You want your team to always try to get better than the last year and don't think that spending money now conflicts with continuing that progress because they have the brains and the cash.

The argument against this is that spending money to not make the playoffs is pointless and could hamper your ability to stockpile prospects and maintain financial flexibility to make moves when your prospect start paying dividends.

Different philosophies.

I think the closest precedent that you can look to is the Tigers 2004-06. Coming off their record bad year in 03' they signed a few high priced FA's over those years (I. Rod, Ordoņez, K. Rodgers) signed some pieces (Guillen, Polanco, Casey) along with some homegrown players (Granderson, Verlander, Bonderman, Inge) to get to the WS. I'm not sure this is a good model though because at least in this case it turned out to be unsustainable. Fortunately the Marlins gave us Cabrera for prospects that didn't pan out for them allowing the Tigers to get back to success. I will tell you, we were all counting the days till Guillen, Ordonez, Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis and Bonderman were off the books.

Tampa is the obvious example of Jeffy's philosophy although SF, StL, NYY, and BSox used a less rigorous version to build successful teams.