PDA

View Full Version : Shohei Otani, Japanese Teenager With 100 MPH Fastball Coming To America; Declares FA



xabial
10-23-2012, 07:41 PM
This article is about how the Yankees are interested in him, but it really provides a good Scouting Report on the "Japanese" Aroldis Chapman.

Stiff penalties are now inflicted now for exceeding $2.9M To Sign Any International Free Agent. How badly do Teams want him? Is He worth giving up Future Draft Picks for, and Paying expensive Tax Penalties for exceeding the $2.9M Cap?

To be honest I kind of miss the old days where Team's tried to outbid each other for Int Fa's, because you never know who might win. (ex- Reds with Chapman)

But Anyways, Who do you think signs him?



Still soured by the Kei Igawa disaster, the Yankees passed on Yu Darvish last winter. Will they jump back into the Japanese pitching market this offseason?

High school sensation Shohei Otani has declared that he will make the jump directly to the majors this winter, bypassing the Japanese leagues for the United States.

Otani, a 6-foot-4 righthander has a blazing fastball that clocks in at 99-100 mph, making him one of the more intriguing names to watch for this offseason. Several big-league teams have reportedly scouted him, as Reuters cited Japanese media in saying the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers are among eight teams “leading the chase” to sign Otani.

Unlike Darvish, Igawa and Daisuke Matsuzaka, signing Otani would not require paying a posting fee. That could make him one of the hottest commodities on this year’s free-agent market.

Otani was expected to go in the first round of Thursday’s amateur draft, but he announced that he would make the move to the majors instead.

“I agonized over the decision,” Otani said, according to Reuters. “But I have decided to play in America. It’s been my dream to play in the majors since I started school.

“I want to play over there as early as possible. I will learn the hard way. I understand the risks. It’s not about the money. It’s about following my dream.”

The Yankees currently have CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, David Phelps and a rehabbing Michael Pineda under contract for next season. They are hoping to bring back veterans Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda in 2013. Given Otani’s age and lack of professional experience, it’s likely he would begin his pro career in the minors next season no matter which team signs him.



Source- http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yanks-intrigued-japanese-teen-phenom-100-mph-fastball-article-1.1189826

Jeffy25
10-23-2012, 07:43 PM
I do want to inform people of one thing I noticed on him.

Those 100 MPH pitches are with the smaller balls they use in Japan.

For example, Darvish lost about 5 MPH from coming over here.



But yes, he throws hard.

I randomly guess the M's or O's take a shot at him.

He sounds like he would be a mid 3rd rounder from what I hear.

VenezuelanMet
10-23-2012, 07:45 PM
I do want to inform people of one thing I noticed on him.

Those 100 MPH pitches are with the smaller balls they use in Japan.

For example, Darvish lost about 5 MPH from coming over here.



But yes, he throws hard.

I randomly guess the M's or O's take a shot at him.

He sounds like he would be a mid 3rd rounder from what I hear.

Huh? I'm pretty sure Darvish didn't throw consistent 98-99 in Japan... 5mph might be an hyperbole on your part, lol.

"Ace"
10-23-2012, 07:47 PM
Does he have other pitches other than a fastball? And nice observation Jeffy.

Nomar
10-23-2012, 07:51 PM
He's done talking to teams already.

The teams who are in the running: Rangers, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Orioles.

According to Buster Olney the Rangers and Red Sox have been the most active in his recruitment, but I don't much stock in that.

Jeffy is right. He probably would max out around 96 here, but thats pretty impressive for an 18 year old. I've heard he has a 1st round draf pick quality arm.

Fly
10-23-2012, 07:55 PM
Huh? I'm pretty sure Darvish didn't throw consistent 98-99 in Japan... 5mph might be an hyperbole on your part, lol.

I can't find average FB speed from his Japan days but scouting reports said he was consistently at mid to upper nineties, and his average FB velocity this year was 92.8 MPH.

LASportsFan1996
10-23-2012, 07:59 PM
Shohei Otani, the Japanese pitching prospect who intends to pursue a career in MLB, appears to be an elite talent comparable to those selected in the top half of the first round of baseball’s amateur draft. The right-hander had been a potential first overall pick in Japan before he announced his intention to play for an MLB organization. And, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America, Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Japanese reporters that Otani could go first overall if he were eligible for the MLB draft.

However, the 18-year-old free agent won’t be draft eligible. Otani will be subject to spending restrictions as an international amateur, which means teams will face consequences if they exceed the $2.9MM international bonus threshold to sign him. Teams will be taxed at a rate of 100% for exceeding the 2.9MM threshold by more than 15%. These clubs would also forfeit the right to spend more than $250K on an international player during the following year’s signing period.

Callis suggests these restrictions won’t be too much of a deterrent for interested MLB teams. Boston GM Ben Cherington confirmed today that the Red Sox met with Otani, Alex Speier of WEEI.com reports (on Twitter). The Red Sox and Rangers “have done the most work in this arena,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported today. Meanwhile, the Angels aren’t expected to be heavily involved, Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com reports (on Twitter).

. Intresting

xabial
10-23-2012, 08:05 PM
He's done talking to teams already.

The teams who are in the running: Rangers, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Orioles.

According to Buster Olney the Rangers and Red Sox have been the most active in his recruitment, but I don't much stock in that.

Jeffy is right. He probably would max out around 96 here, but thats pretty impressive for an 18 year old. I've heard he has a 1st round draf pick quality arm.

100 at 18 is really impressive. His body's still growing too.

And, Not to sound racist, but am I the only one who feels relieved that a Japanese International FA is declaring he's "18", rather than a International Free Agent from a Hispanic Country. Just feels like there's more credit to his age if he's Japanese.

Nomar
10-23-2012, 08:13 PM
I know what you mean xabial, lots of DR players lie about their age.

Really hoping the Sox can land this guy

SenorGato
10-23-2012, 08:21 PM
If you actually expect an 18 year old who is said to hit 99-100 to sit at that velocity then you have gone mad with expectation.

The fact that he hits those velocities is more important in that it shows he has supreme arm strength to go with his ideal pitchers frame, not what you should expect to see all the time.

If he comes to the states and can sit in the low-mid 90s during his starts then thats pretty much meeting expectations.

Nomar
10-23-2012, 08:23 PM
If you actually expect an 18 year old who is said to hit 99-100 to sit at that velocity then you have gone mad with expectation.

The fact that he hits those velocities is more important in that it shows he has supreme arm strength to go with his ideal pitchers frame, not what you should expect to see all the time.

If he comes to the states and can sit in the low-mid 90s during his starts then thats pretty much meeting expectations.

x2

Just so everyone knows the article never said he sits at 99, even in Japan. Given him frame he probably could eventually sit around 95 if he progresses well in whatever team's farm system.

HowFit
10-23-2012, 08:25 PM
Wow, an impressive kid!

metswon69
10-23-2012, 08:26 PM
There's also the idea that he is still maturing physically and could add velocity as he adds mass and strength.

Whatever the difference in translation to velocity is, a kid that can throw that hard that young has potential as long as he continually develops his secondary pitches and his control.

LakersA's49ers
10-23-2012, 08:35 PM
keep him away from the AL West please. I want no part of him. Even though the A's handled Darvish well this season, haha

ciaban
10-23-2012, 08:41 PM
keep him away from the AL West please. I want no part of him. Even though the A's handled Darvish well this season, haha

the dodgers have been super in on him too, we could use him to beat up on the giants for you.

Jeffy25
10-23-2012, 08:45 PM
Huh? I'm pretty sure Darvish didn't throw consistent 98-99 in Japan... 5mph might be an hyperbole on your part, lol.

He hit 96 consistently in Japan, and hit as high as 98 a few times, I an distinctly remember MLB fans thinking he would sit 98 over here.

In the MLB this season, his fastball average 93-94, and he hit 96 a couple of times.


They use a smaller baseball in Japan, that's all it is.

And I don't recall Otani hitting 100. But with his age, you have to assume he could do it eventually in the MLB.

YouCan'tBeatLA
10-24-2012, 12:03 AM
He hit 96 consistently in Japan, and hit as high as 98 a few times, I an distinctly remember MLB fans thinking he would sit 98 over here.

In the MLB this season, his fastball average 93-94, and he hit 96 a couple of times.


They use a smaller baseball in Japan, that's all it is.

And I don't recall Otani hitting 100. But with his age, you have to assume he could do it eventually in the MLB.

He hit 160km/h which is about 99.5 mph.

metswon69
10-24-2012, 12:11 AM
He hit 160km/h which is about 99.5 mph.

Smaller baseball

SenorGato
10-24-2012, 12:51 AM
I should say if he sits in the low 90's and flashes the higher velocities then things are going well.

Jeffy25
10-24-2012, 01:07 AM
He hit 160km/h which is about 99.5 mph.

In Japan?

I thought 98 was his top speed.


Either way, he never came close to that here.


If people don't believe me, notice the drop in velocity from 2009 to 2012 from Darvish

http://cdn.brooksbaseball.net/player_cards/card_imgs/506433.mph.L.png


They use a smaller baseball in Japan, so it's only natural that there is going to be a little more velocity (although not much). If he hit 99.5 in Japan, then seeing him top out about 96 here makes sense, especially since he is probably a little more advanced since joining the MLB.


Regardless, what SenorGato has said through all of this has been accurate.

YouCan'tBeatLA
10-24-2012, 01:21 AM
Smaller baseball

I understand that, but Jeffy said he didn't hit 100mph in Japan, he's probably well aware of the baseball being smaller.

AI
10-24-2012, 01:26 AM
It's between the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox. He already said he'd sign with one of those 3 teams.

YouCan'tBeatLA
10-24-2012, 01:28 AM
Velocity shouldn't/wouldn't be a concern for Shohei. I'm sure he's going to be a stud.

AI
10-24-2012, 01:30 AM
Otani was the potential No. 1 overall pick in this week's Japanese draft until he announced yesterday that he plans to play in the United States. The 18-year-old righthander is extremely athletic and projectable at 6-foot-4 and 190 pounds, and his fastball has been clocked in the upper 90s. He also throws a slider and a splitter, though his secondary pitches and command are still works in progress. After the Dodgers met with Otani in September, assistant GM Logan White told the Japanese press that Otani had the talent to be the top overall choice in the MLB draft.

Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, teams get $2.9 million with which to sign international amateurs. But unlike the restrictions for exceeding draft bonus pools, which could cost a club its next two first-round choices, the penalties for surpassing international bonus pools aren't as harsh. A team that blows past its international pool by 15 percent or more would pay a 100-percent tax on the overage and be forbidden to pay an international amateur more than $250,000 during next year's signing period.

For a player with Otani's upside, that's not much of a deterrent. Also consider that in the draft, a player of his caliber would be available only to the teams choosing at the very top. On the worldwide market, all 30 teams are in play. Clubs accustomed to picking at the bottom of the draft may be willing to pay dearly for the opportunity to sign him.

Three teams—the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox—have met with Otani in Japan, and he said yesterday that he plans on signing with one of them. We don't have access to how much money clubs have remaining in their international bonus pools, but Texas appears to have the most among those three teams. (The Rangers' $4.5 million signing of Beras doesn't count against the pool because it happened in February.) Boston, which spent a combined $1.36 million on Dominican righthander Jose Almonte, Dominican shortstop Wendell Rijo and Venezuelan lefty Dedgar Jimenez, has the least money among the three clubs.

But as I said, I don't think cap space is going to matter when it comes to signing Otani. For the same reason, I don't think he'll have to wait until next year's signing period to maximize his money. He'll need some time to develop, but Otani has a special arm and will get paid accordingly.

Callis

ciaban
10-24-2012, 01:39 AM
It's between the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox. He already said he'd sign with one of those 3 teams.

i hear the Yankees have been looking at him, and the orioles were interested too, i can't say with certainty that an 18 year old wont change his mind and surprise everyone, we see it with college recruits all the time.

Rad_Racing
10-24-2012, 02:11 AM
He hit 96 consistently in Japan, and hit as high as 98 a few times, I an distinctly remember MLB fans thinking he would sit 98 over here.

In the MLB this season, his fastball average 93-94, and he hit 96 a couple of times.


They use a smaller baseball in Japan, that's all it is.

And I don't recall Otani hitting 100. But with his age, you have to assume he could do it eventually in the MLB.

I think this came up a bit a few years back with the WBC. The Asian players had to get used-to the MLB ball. Not only does the size seem different, but the material is as well.

I've been to a couple games in Korea and picked up balls in the dugout type stores. I'm not certain they were official balls, but there was a noticeable
difference.

However, whether the kid throws 98 or 94 when he gets here, I think it will be interesting to see him develop though the minor leagues.

Sevilla91
10-24-2012, 02:29 AM
the ball is not smaller, the threads are more raised up from the ball....do your research please

PraiseJesus
10-24-2012, 02:49 AM
hes going Dodgers because it's closest to Japan.

/thread

AI
10-24-2012, 03:28 AM
i hear the Yankees have been looking at him, and the orioles were interested too, i can't say with certainty that an 18 year old wont change his mind and surprise everyone, we see it with college recruits all the time.

You can hear a lot of things, I'm hearing what came directly from his mouth.

Jeffy25
10-24-2012, 03:31 AM
the ball is not smaller, the threads are more raised up from the ball....do your research please

Apparently, by many, it is.


And the ball is wound more tightly as well.

Pinstripe pride
10-24-2012, 08:38 AM
baltimore loves japanese pitchers, so i say he goes there

Young2Kinsler
10-24-2012, 09:53 AM
the dodgers have been super in on him too, we could use him to beat up on the giants for you.

Problem with the Dodgers is I think they have much less off their international spending cap left than Texas and Boston, the other 2 teams who seem to be in the final 3

sexicano31
10-24-2012, 10:52 AM
Doesn't he have a good amount of mileage on his arm already?

Halladay
10-24-2012, 10:59 AM
but i have decided to play in america

</3

kyubi256
10-24-2012, 11:10 AM
18 year old with arm = First pick material. But also such a raw talent

Vixious
10-24-2012, 03:39 PM
The Nippon Ham Fighters are saying they are going to draft him first overall in the Japanese draft regardless of where he wants to go. If they do this, it'll delay American teams for many months before they can sign him again. Something around March.

Nomar
10-24-2012, 03:40 PM
The Nippon Ham Fighters are saying they are going to draft him first overall in the Japanese draft regardless of where he wants to go. If they do this, it'll delay American teams for many months before they can sign him again. Something around March.

Theyre vaginas, either way hes coming here. Theyll just lose a pick in the end.

LASportsFan1996
10-24-2012, 06:47 PM
The Nippon Ham Fighters are saying they are going to draft him first overall in the Japanese draft regardless of where he wants to go. If they do this, it'll delay American teams for many months before they can sign him again. Something around March.

**** those dumb *****es :facepalm:

jlohm1
10-24-2012, 07:03 PM
I remember the Red Sox really wanted Chapman so I could see them making a serious big for him

papipapsmanny
10-24-2012, 10:21 PM
I do want to inform people of one thing I noticed on him.

Those 100 MPH pitches are with the smaller balls they use in Japan.

For example, Darvish lost about 5 MPH from coming over here.



But yes, he throws hard.

I randomly guess the M's or O's take a shot at him.

He sounds like he would be a mid 3rd rounder from what I hear.

Dude do you just pull things from your ***? Everywhere Ive read is that he would be a 1st round pick, and more towards the top.

SenorGato
10-24-2012, 10:22 PM
Not sure if posted but Sickels did a piece that linked to a really nice article on Otani:

http://www.npbtracker.com/2012/10/who-is-shohei-otani/#content


I’ve only seen one Otani pitch one full game, his appearance in this spring’s Koshien Senbatsu tournament against fellow draft phenom Shintaro Fujinami. It was a frustrating game to watch, as the raw quality of Otani’s stuff was evident, but his command was non-existent. He featured a fastball ranging from about 145-152 km/h (90-95 mph), a slider around 132-136 km/h (82-84 mph) and curve around 125 km/h (77 mph). Everything had movement, and his wildness was of the effective variety until the 6th inning, when he and his defense faltered, before melting down (video) in the 7th. For the day, Otani struck out 11, walked 11 and gave up nine runs (five earned) while taking the loss. That looks bad, but Otani was facing a quality lineup with aluminum bats on a big stage, and his manager left him out for 173 pitches. The raw talent is there, but it was clearly just that in that game – raw.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbGI1e4_fJE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQvbx3SvMdY&feature=related

Second video is from the game where he hit 99.

MetsFanatic19
10-24-2012, 10:49 PM
Mets :pray:

metswon69
10-24-2012, 10:51 PM
Mets :pray:

You know the answer to your prayers right?

Jeffy25
10-25-2012, 01:57 AM
Struck out 11.....but walked 11?!?!?!?!?

lol, please
10-25-2012, 02:27 AM
Future Giant?

SenorGato
10-25-2012, 10:35 AM
Otani went #1 overall in the NPB draft.

Young2Kinsler
10-25-2012, 11:10 AM
Otani went #1 overall in the NPB draft.

Hope he still walks away, but it's a lot tougher now.

Nomar
10-25-2012, 11:10 AM
Future Giant?

not possible

Young2Kinsler
10-25-2012, 01:12 PM
Rotoworld still seems to think he is going to come to America.

Nomar
10-25-2012, 02:51 PM
He'll definitely still get a deal here if he waits it out. Hopefully he does.

Akagaminosteven
10-25-2012, 07:55 PM
Watching the news last night at a bar here, he basically said "Thanks, but I still want to go to the US."

Nomar
10-25-2012, 08:12 PM
Watching the news last night at a bar here, he basically said "Thanks, but I still want to go to the US."

Haha nice.

Akagaminosteven
10-26-2012, 06:47 PM
Can we just accept the fact that japanese players suck over here? Stop hyping every single one up.

I guess that line of thinking would be appropriate if you didn't watch baseball. There have been a lot of duds for various reasons, but I would hardly say Ichiro, Darvish, Matsui, Saitou, Nomo, and Kuroda have sucked.

Besides, a chance at developing in the minors over here could do a lot to relieve some of the differences that have contributed to past disappointments.