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View Full Version : NBA ReDraft Playoffs 2nd Round: 2) Hartford vs. 3) Valencia



phlp_bj
10-15-2012, 09:31 PM
Welcome to the 2012 NBA ReDraft voting process. The redraft is exactly how it sounds. The rosters of every NBA team are cleared and then drafted again from scratch. Posters from the site draft full rosters under a salary cap and then there is a voting process to make the playoffs. We are now in the playoffs and the head to head matchups have begun. Please remember to vote for the roster and write-up you believe would win a 7 game series. Also remember that every player is considered as healthy for these playoffs. Thank you and enjoy the playoffs!

Hartford:
Kyle Lowry - Brandon Knight - Brian Scalabrine
Iman Shumpert - Shannon Brown - Brian Scalabrine
Jared Dudley - Vince Carter - Brian Scalabrine
Carlos Boozer - Drew Gooden - Brian Scalabrine
Andrew Bynum - Shelden Williams - Andre Drummond - Brian Scalabrine

Valencia:
PG: Chris Paul | Jannero Pargo
SG: Nick Young | Michael Redd | Keith Bogans
SF: Danillo Gallinari | Chris Singleton
PF: Taj Gibson | Kenyon Martin
C: Brook Lopez | Greg Stiemsma | Hamed Haddadi

Hartford Writeup

Cliff notes on why Hartford will win:
1) While Valencia has CP3, we have one of the top defensive point guards in the NBA to defend him.
2) Valencia has no one in the paint to defend the combination of Boozer-Bynum together.
3) Home court advantage for Hartford. (LOOKING AT YOU, JB - I HAVE T-MAC's COUSIN TOO!)
4) Dudley will match Gallo’s productivity.
5) Shumpert will shut down Young.
6) Boozer will out produce Gibson.
7) Hartford has a more productive bench.

Looking at the point guard matchup will show a clear advantage in Valencia’s favor, but Lowry is an excellent player in his own right. He is one of the top defensive point guards in the NBA, and he’s playing alongside Shumpert whom also happens to be an excellent perimeter defender. We believe that the two players paired together will be able to help contain Chris Paul. Paul is a great player, but he’s not going to carry an offense with his own point production. He’s best utilized setting up his teammates and attacking defenses when the opportunity arises…We feel that Lowry and Shumpert can limit those opportunities significantly. Paul and Lowry matched up twice in 2012, and both players shot the same percentage from the field in each matchup. Just looking at the names makes it look like a landslide advantage for Valencia, but Lowry can hold his own against Paul.

Looking at the matchup at shooting guard, I see an elite perimeter defender (Shumpert) matched up against a streaky, inconsistent wing scorer with a poor shot selection. Matching elite defense with a chucker means counter-productivity for Valencia. Nick Young will be forced to take poor shots due to Shumpert’s pressure defense, and he will do more harm for good in this series. Nick Young played with Chris Paul last year for the Clippers and he shot UNDER 40% from the field, while accounting for a pretty awful WS/48 of .040. ..Why would this year be any different? Young is hardly a starting quality guard for a playoff team right now, and Shumpert can absolutely shut him down over the length of a series.

Jared Dudley and Danilo Gallinari is a virtual wash. Last season:
http://i.imgur.com/lua33.png

Jared Dudley was a much more efficient offensive player than Danilo Gallinari last year. Dudley shot better percentages in every scenario, and he’s much more effective as a shooter. They rebounded at the same rate. The only thing Gallo does slightly better is facilitating for teammates. Dudley is my 4th option on offense. Gallo is Valencia’s second or third option. My fourth option is more efficient than their 2nd/3rd option.

Looking at the power forward matchup is interesting. Boozer vs. his backup. Gibson is a good defensive player for sure, but Boozer is the more complete player by a decent margin. Last season, Boozer averaged 15/8 on 53+% shooting. Valencia is going to try to sell you on Gibson’s defense, but lets look at the actual production:

http://i.imgur.com/CHYQN.png

Boozer outproduced Gibson across the board. He was starting for a reason. People want to credit Thibs for Boozer’s defensive metrics? The same asterisk should be placed upon Gibson. I’d take Boozer 10 times out of 10 over Gibson in this matchup.

Here’s the real laugher: Bynum vs Lopez. Lopez is an absolutely terrible defender, a pitiful rebounder, and his only saving grace as a player is his offensive ability. Bynum is a much better player than Lopez, and he would abuse him over the length of this series.

I’d compare Bynum’s season last year to Lopez’….But Lopez was injured the entire year..

Last year, Bynum took the next step as a player. He averaged 19 points, 12 rebounds, accounted for a .183 WS/48, and posted great rebound rates. We feel that he would be able to take advantage of Lopez with ease after what we saw this past season. Lopez might be a productive offensive player, but Bynum is much better overall.

Looking at the two benches also paints an advantage in Hartford’s favor. We’re bringing FIVE NBA starters off of our bench, as well as a draft lotter pick. Brandon Knight, Shannon Brown, Vince Carter, Drew Gooden and Shelden Williams all played major minutes as starters for stretches of last season, and we’re bringing them off the bench as reserves! To add to that, we have Andre Drummond, one of the most athletic players in the draft, and an excellent defensive player to help our front court rotation. Our bench has everything you could need: Shooters, defenders, floor spacers, slashers, big men that can rebound and defend…we have it all.

Looking at my team you will see that every player has a defined role that they fit into very well.

Lowry is a great spot up shooter, excels at running the pick and roll, and is one of the best defensive guards in the NBA.

Iman Shumpert is a premiere perimeter defender, and is great at finishing in transition and cutting to the hoop off down screens.

Jared Dudley is one of the best spot up shooters in the NBA, and he’s a lengthy defender with good size at the 3. Also very good in finishing on the break.

Carlos Boozer is one of the best pick and roll/pop forwards in the NBA. He fits perfectly with Kyle Lowry running high pick and rolls and crashing the boards.

Bynum is the second best center in the NBA, and some even consider him the best. He’s an absolute menace on the block, and he’s one of the best rebounders in the league, and he’s great at stopping penetration in the paint on the defensive end.

Everyone fits a role…We have distributers, defenders, shooters, slashers, pick and roll forwards, low post players, depth...Our team’s balance is better than any other team in the re-draft.

Thank you for reading, and I hope you see the cohesion that is exhibited with our roster.


Valencia's Writeup

Congratulations to Corey and Superdude for advancing the second round of the playoffs. We hold both of these GMs in the highest respect given their track records in the last few games. They built an outstanding team in this ReDraft well deserving of its second round berth and we wish them luck in this series.

As in the last series, our superstar point guard will have to produce against a stout perimeter defense led by Lowry and Iman Shumpert. While we concede Lowry is a high quality defender for his position, his numbers defensively don't quite correlate to his reputation. Last season he yielded a PER of 15.7 to his opponents while producing a PER of 18.7 himself. He also surrendered a 40% scoring rate to the pick and roll last season on an abysmal 48% shooting from the field. His defense against the spot up shot was among the worst in the league last year as he yielded a 46% scoring rate 1.12 points per possession. Those two plays composed nearly 70 percent of the ones Lowry defended in '11-'12.

Coincidentally those were two of Chris Paul's most prominent source of scoring last season. So while Hartford will surely argue that they have the personnel to hang with Paul on the perimeter, the numbers argue quite the opposite.

Just like in the previous series, Hartford cannot afford to rely on the efforts of both Shumpert and Lowry more than the obvious when we have Gallinari and Young on the perimeter. Gallinari is more than capable of breaking down a defense himself and his ability to take pressure off Paul outside offensively, a luxury CP3 has yet to have in his professional career, will cost Hartford's defense should they try.

On the wing, Danilo Gallinari has the edge over Jared Dudley. At first glance, Dudley was suprisingly (and quite admirably) a more efficient offensive player than Gallo last season. With Paul, as opposed to Ty Lawson, initiatng an offense for him and Brook Lopez to draw attntion in the paint, Gallinari will have more slack to operate on our team than he does with the real life Nuggets.

While Lowry is a quality point guard, he's not near the distributor Steve Nash is and with so little offensive production coming from Dudley's wingman (Shumpert), Dudley is highly unlikely to produce at the same clip he has in Phoenix the last few seasons. And given the personnel we have surrounding Gallinari, there's every reason to believe he'll be even more effective on our roster than he is in Denver.

Carlos Boozer is a quality offensive player and a strong rebounder. But to be as delicate as possible, he completely wilts in the postseason. In his last two postseason runs with the Bulls:




PER TS% eFG% PPG TOV%
Regular Season '10-'11: 18.8 .542 .510 17.5 13.5
Postseason '10-'11: 15.2 .494 .433 14.3 12.0




PER TS% eFG% PPG TOV%
Regular Season '11-'12: 19.7 .549 .532 15.0 11.3
Postseason '11-'12: 9.8 .435 .422 14.6 19.8

It's also worth noting that Boozer has been frequently benched in favor of our starting power forward, Taj Gibson. This has been especially true in the playoffs where Gibson's tenacity, physicality, and willingness to defend at a high level come in handy more than what Boozer brings to the table.

We don't expect Gibson to shut Boozer down completely but the heightened physicality of the playoffs combined with Gibson's acumen at the defensive end of the floor will likely lead to just another severely underwhelming series for Boozer.

It would be even more foolish for us to pretend that Andrew Bynum won't have an advantage over Brook Lopez down low. He's a better defender, rebounder, and a more efficient offensive player. He's also far more foul prone, less durable than Brook, and Hartford's depth behind Bynum is alarmingly poor.

Last year's postseason was the first in Bynum's career, and there have been many, in which he logged a significant amount of minutes. The opposing frontcourts for the Lakers in those two playoff series? Javale McGee, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Kenneth Faried...hardly worldbeaters at the offensive end.

Say what you like about Brook Lopez. The man can produce. He's managed to score at a high level against every big man he's ever played against. His ability to operate inside, complemented by Paul's distribution, is likely to put Bynum in foul trouble for at least a few games during this series. With Bynum sidelined, they're forced to turn to either Shelden Williams or the rookie Andre Drummond to man the center position. Should Bynum's offensive repertoire complicate Lopez's playing time with foul trouble, we could easily turn to Taj Gibson at center or bring Kenyon Martin off the bench.

Both teams have one quality interior defender and one slouch inside. They have a more productive frontcourt; we have the more productive perimeter. We have the best player in the series and favorable match-ups at three out of five positions in the starting lineup. Ultimately a combination of those match-ups, the play of Paul, our defense, and ability to score from literally anywhere on the floor between Paul, Gallo, and Lopez will net us the victory.

LakersMaster24
10-15-2012, 09:56 PM
I like the defense Hartford is offering.

NYMetros
10-15-2012, 09:56 PM
I'll wait til Valencia's writeup to vote, I really like Hartford though

Corey
10-15-2012, 10:43 PM
I'm very confident in our matchups in this series.

We have the defenders to help contain Paul, and we have a huge advantage in the paint.

The_Jamal
10-15-2012, 11:10 PM
I like Hartford too much in this series. They have two highly capable defenders on Paul and a large advantage in the post. Gallo is a much bigger advantage than Hartford says, but it's not enough to overcome the post advantage and Paul not having the ability to run over everybody this series

Catfish1314
10-15-2012, 11:26 PM
Valencia's Write-up (sorry for the delay):


3 Valencia Armada vs. 2 Hartford Halers

Congratulations to Corey and Superdude for advancing the second round of the playoffs. We hold both of these GMs in the highest respect given their track records in the last few games. They built an outstanding team in this ReDraft well deserving of its second round berth and we wish them luck in this series.

As in the last series, our superstar point guard will have to produce against a stout perimeter defense led by Lowry and Iman Shumpert. While we concede Lowry is a high quality defender for his position, his numbers defensively don't quite correlate to his reputation. Last season he yielded a PER of 15.7 to his opponents while producing a PER of 18.7 himself. He also surrendered a 40% scoring rate to the pick and roll last season on an abysmal 48% shooting from the field. His defense against the spot up shot was among the worst in the league last year as he yielded a 46% scoring rate 1.12 points per possession. Those two plays composed nearly 70 percent of the ones Lowry defended in '11-'12.

Coincidentally those were two of Chris Paul's most prominent source of scoring last season. So while Hartford will surely argue that they have the personnel to hang with Paul on the perimeter, the numbers argue quite the opposite.

Just like in the previous series, Hartford cannot afford to rely on the efforts of both Shumpert and Lowry more than the obvious when we have Gallinari and Young on the perimeter. Gallinari is more than capable of breaking down a defense himself and his ability to take pressure off Paul outside offensively, a luxury CP3 has yet to have in his professional career, will cost Hartford's defense should they try.

On the wing, Danilo Gallinari has the edge over Jared Dudley. At first glance, Dudley was suprisingly (and quite admirably) a more efficient offensive player than Gallo last season. With Paul, as opposed to Ty Lawson, initiatng an offense for him and Brook Lopez to draw attntion in the paint, Gallinari will have more slack to operate on our team than he does with the real life Nuggets.

While Lowry is a quality point guard, he's not near the distributor Steve Nash is and with so little offensive production coming from Dudley's wingman (Shumpert), Dudley is highly unlikely to produce at the same clip he has in Phoenix the last few seasons. And given the personnel we have surrounding Gallinari, there's every reason to believe he'll be even more effective on our roster than he is in Denver.

Carlos Boozer is a quality offensive player and a strong rebounder. But to be as delicate as possible, he completely wilts in the postseason. In his last two postseason runs with the Bulls:


PER TS% eFG% PPG TOV%
Regular Season '10-'11: 18.8 .542 .510 17.5 13.5
Postseason '10-'11: 15.2 .494 .433 14.3 12.0


PER TS% eFG% PPG TOV%
Regular Season '11-'12: 19.7 .549 .532 15.0 11.3
Postseason '11-'12: 9.8 .435 .422 14.6 19.8

It's also worth noting that Boozer has been frequently benched in favor of our starting power forward, Taj Gibson. This has been especially true in the playoffs where Gibson's tenacity, physicality, and willingness to defend at a high level come in handy more than what Boozer brings to the table.

We don't expect Gibson to shut Boozer down completely but the heightened physicality of the playoffs combined with Gibson's acumen at the defensive end of the floor will likely lead to just another severely underwhelming series for Boozer.

It would be even more foolish for us to pretend that Andrew Bynum won't have an advantage over Brook Lopez down low. He's a better defender, rebounder, and a more efficient offensive player. He's also far more foul prone, less durable than Brook, and Hartford's depth behind Bynum is alarmingly poor.

Last year's postseason was the first in Bynum's career, and there have been many, in which he logged a significant amount of minutes. The opposing frontcourts for the Lakers in those two playoff series? Javale McGee, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins, Kenneth Faried...hardly worldbeaters at the offensive end.

Say what you like about Brook Lopez. The man can produce. He's managed to score at a high level against every big man he's ever played against. His ability to operate inside, complemented by Paul's distribution, is likely to put Bynum in foul trouble for at least a few games during this series. With Bynum sidelined, they're forced to turn to either Shelden Williams or the rookie Andre Drummond to man the center position. Should Bynum's offensive repertoire complicate Lopez's playing time with foul trouble, we could easily turn to Taj Gibson at center or bring Kenyon Martin off the bench.

Both teams have one quality interior defender and one slouch inside. They have a more productive frontcourt; we have the more productive perimeter. We have the best player in the series and favorable match-ups at three out of five positions in the starting lineup. Ultimately a combination of those match-ups, the play of Paul, our defense, and ability to score from literally anywhere on the floor between Paul, Gallo, and Lopez will net us the victory.


Good luck to Corey and Superdude :)

Corey
10-15-2012, 11:48 PM
I like Hartford too much in this series. They have two highly capable defenders on Paul and a large advantage in the post. Gallo is a much bigger advantage than Hartford says, but it's not enough to overcome the post advantage and Paul not having the ability to run over everybody this series

In terms of pure talent, sure.

In terms of actual on-court production? Nope.

ChiSox219
10-15-2012, 11:49 PM
Gallo with CP3 will far outproduce Dudley without Nash.

Super.
10-15-2012, 11:51 PM
Gallo with CP3 will far outproduce Dudley without Nash.

Lowry is quite the capable PG, and Bynum and Boozer will far outproduce their counterparts.

ChiSox219
10-15-2012, 11:53 PM
Lowry is quite the capable PG, and Bynum and Boozer will far outproduce their counterparts.

Uh ok, but Gallo >>> Dudley

Sadds The Gr8
10-15-2012, 11:54 PM
Hartford in 6. I think Bynum dominates the series, and they have great perimeter defenders to defend CP3, and Bynum at the rim to contest the drives.

Super.
10-16-2012, 12:08 AM
Uh ok, but Gallo >>> Dudley

Dudley is a better 3 point shooter, eFG%, better TS%. Is Gallo the better all around player? Sure. But he's not head and shoulders above Gallo.

Corey
10-16-2012, 12:19 AM
Uh ok, but Gallo >>> Dudley

More talent than Dudley, but that doesn't mean he'll out produce him.

Dudley's the more efficient offensive player. Much better spot up shooter. He's our 4th option, he'll get open looks all series.

DR_1
10-16-2012, 01:30 AM
Dudley and Gallo a wash? :laugh2:

The_Jamal
10-16-2012, 03:34 AM
Dudley and Gallo a wash? :laugh2:

Yea, it's a big reach they are trying to sell. Put Dudley as the #1 option of Denver last season and we'll see how "efficient" he really can be.

Corey
10-16-2012, 07:18 AM
Dudley and Gallo a wash? :laugh2:


Yea, it's a big reach they are trying to sell. Put Dudley as the #1 option of Denver last season and we'll see how "efficient" he really can be.
Nowhere did I say that Dudley was a better overall player than Gallo. Nowhere did I say that Dudley would make a better #1 option than Gallo.

I'm simply stating that in this matchup, Dudley will match Gallo's production based on what both players did last season.

Dudley is a more efficient offensive player, and I see no reason for his efficiency numbers to take a hit considering he's the #4 option behind Bynum, Lowry and Boozer. He'll be getting open looks all series.

Gallo's production will likely go up a bit playing with Paul, which would put his percentages right around Dudley's.

I'm not arguing that Dudley is 'as good' as Gallinari, I'm arguing that he's capable of matching Gallo's production.

Last season per36:
http://i.imgur.com/lua33.png

Dudley shot better percentages while rebounding at the same rate. He was a more efficient player last year, and that's all the evidence we have to go by: What they've done on the court up until now.

The_Jamal
10-16-2012, 10:30 AM
Nowhere did I say that Dudley was a better overall player than Gallo. Nowhere did I say that Dudley would make a better #1 option than Gallo.

I'm simply stating that in this matchup, Dudley will match Gallo's production based on what both players did last season.

Dudley is a more efficient offensive player, and I see no reason for his efficiency numbers to take a hit considering he's the #4 option behind Bynum, Lowry and Boozer. He'll be getting open looks all series.

Gallo's production will likely go up a bit playing with Paul, which would put his percentages right around Dudley's.

I'm not arguing that Dudley is 'as good' as Gallinari, I'm arguing that he's capable of matching Gallo's production.

Last season per36:
http://i.imgur.com/lua33.png

Dudley shot better percentages while rebounding at the same rate. He was a more efficient player last year, and that's all the evidence we have to go by: What they've done on the court up until now.

The respective role they had on their teams are two totally different things though. Dudley thrived due to being next to one of the best creators in basketball with Nash and in an offensive system that puts up points with ease. Gallo was forced into a #1 option role which he isn't suited for at all in Denver. I'd fully expect a huge surge in Gallo's numbers playing with the likes of Cp3 and an offensive big like Lopez.

I voted for your squad lol, but using p/36 numbers to make your argument is highly indicative of how much of a stretch your trying to make here

Mile High Champ
10-16-2012, 11:01 AM
My biggest issue with taking Valencia remains Brook Lopez. I have argued over and over again that this guy is simply an overrated player. I also don't see him doing next to anything guarding Bynum in this series. I voted Valencia last time but the advantage in the front court is too big to ignore.

ChiSox219
10-16-2012, 11:37 AM
I think the Dudley over Gallo argument lacks context. You use the per 36 min stats but Gallo fractured his foot and thumb last year and had the worst percentages of his career. If you increase the sample to both players careers, Gallo has a slightly better TS% while also being more involved in the offense, with a higher USG%.


The respective role they had on their teams are two totally different things though. Dudley thrived due to being next to one of the best creators in basketball with Nash and in an offensive system that puts up points with ease. Gallo was forced into a #1 option role which he isn't suited for at all in Denver. I'd fully expect a huge surge in Gallo's numbers playing with the likes of Cp3 and an offensive big like Lopez.

I voted for your squad lol, but using p/36 numbers to make your argument is highly indicative of how much of a stretch your trying to make here

+1

Corey
10-16-2012, 02:13 PM
The respective role they had on their teams are two totally different things though. Dudley thrived due to being next to one of the best creators in basketball with Nash and in an offensive system that puts up points with ease. Gallo was forced into a #1 option role which he isn't suited for at all in Denver. I'd fully expect a huge surge in Gallo's numbers playing with the likes of Cp3 and an offensive big like Lopez.

I voted for your squad lol, but using p/36 numbers to make your argument is highly indicative of how much of a stretch your trying to make here

Dudley's efficiency numbers wouldn't take a hit at all, though. He's the 4th option on offense in this lineup, and he'd get just as many open looks as he did in Phoenix.

If you think Gallo would go from shooting 41% to high 40's just from playing with Chris Paul, that's your opinion, but I disagree. As I said in the last post, I'd expect his efficiency numbers to slightly increase, but they still wouldn't match Dudley's efficiency.

The only year Gallo shot over 42% from the field was his rookie year when he was playing 15 minutes per game.

@Chisox Why would you use career averages in a redraft context? The only data that is relevant is recent years.

Anywho, Gallo's averages since becoming a full time starter in 2009:

http://i.imgur.com/dFrUz.png

In that same three year span, Dudley has much more efficient offensive numbers. Better FG, 3pt%, TS%, eFG%, same REB% and AST%, and very similar defensive metrics.

Again, I'm not arguing that Dudley is as talented as Gallo, or has the upside of Gallo, but I'm speaking towards the CONCRETE on court production, which is all the facts we have to go by without making assumptions of production in different systems.

Catfish1314
10-16-2012, 02:29 PM
Lowry is quite the capable PG

Yes.


Bynum and Boozer will far outproduce their counterparts.

Pushing it. Boozer is trash in the month of May and say what you want about Brook Lopez but he scores against everybody.


My biggest issue with taking Valencia remains Brook Lopez. I have argued over and over again that this guy is simply an overrated player. I also don't see him doing next to anything guarding Bynum in this series. I voted Valencia last time but the advantage in the front court is too big to ignore.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=bynuman01&p2=lopezbr01

Granted that's not much of a sample size but if you look at the recent match-ups, there's no reason to believe what you just said is utterly false. And it pretty much is.

EDIT for the bold: It mystifies me as to why you keep posting this about Lopez as if you're the only one who has this opinion of him.

KnicksorBust
10-16-2012, 04:45 PM
The only reason Valencia is a believable team is because of Chris Paul and Hartford has Shumpert/Lowry to slow him down.

Alternatively, Valencia has arguably one of the worst defensive bigs to matchup against Hartford's #1 option.

I vote Hartford.

Corey
10-16-2012, 05:36 PM
The only reason Valencia is a believable team is because of Chris Paul and Hartford has Shumpert/Lowry to slow him down.

Alternatively, Valencia has arguably one of the worst defensive bigs to matchup against Hartford's #1 option.

I vote Hartford.
:nod:

I think we got good draws in each of the first two rounds. Having good defenders in the backcourt and great offensive post players give us the advantage in this series.

Also: Hartford has homecourt advantage and their bench consists of 5 players that started for stretches of last season, as well as a lottery pick.

The_Jamal
10-16-2012, 05:46 PM
Dudley's efficiency numbers wouldn't take a hit at all, though. He's the 4th option on offense in this lineup, and he'd get just as many open looks as he did in Phoenix.

If you think Gallo would go from shooting 41% to high 40's just from playing with Chris Paul, that's your opinion, but I disagree. As I said in the last post, I'd expect his efficiency numbers to slightly increase, but they still wouldn't match Dudley's efficiency.

The only year Gallo shot over 42% from the field was his rookie year when he was playing 15 minutes per game.

@Chisox Why would you use career averages in a redraft context? The only data that is relevant is recent years.

Anywho, Gallo's averages since becoming a full time starter in 2009:

http://i.imgur.com/dFrUz.png

In that same three year span, Dudley has much more efficient offensive numbers. Better FG, 3pt%, TS%, eFG%, same REB% and AST%, and very similar defensive metrics.

Again, I'm not arguing that Dudley is as talented as Gallo, or has the upside of Gallo, but I'm speaking towards the CONCRETE on court production, which is all the facts we have to go by without making assumptions of production in different systems.

Concrete on-court production lies to us if we don't use it in proper context when judging 2 players. Dudley was assisted on 76% of his baskets last season, and he spent just under 70% of his offensive plays in spot-up, transition, or off-screen situations. Also, he had a grand total of 40 offensive plays (5%) where he was the main creator of the offense in ISo or PnR situations.


Gallo, in contrast, was assisted on 62% of his baskets with 35% of his offensive plays being in ISO situations and as a PnR ball-handler while still putting up solid numbers. Dudley would not be near Gallo's production as the #1 option in Denver and you would see a significant rise in Gallo's numbers playing in PHX and with Nash

Corey
10-16-2012, 06:29 PM
Concrete on-court production lies to us if we don't use it in proper context when judging 2 players. Dudley was assisted on 76% of his baskets last season, and he spent just under 70% of his offensive plays in spot-up, transition, or off-screen situations. Also, he had a grand total of 40 offensive plays (5%) where he was the main creator of the offense in ISo or PnR situations.
Doesn't change the fact that he converted at higher rates than Gallo. Contextualize it all you want, but the fact is that Dudley was a more efficient offensive player last year.

Gallo, in contrast, was assisted on 62% of his baskets with 35% of his offensive plays being in ISO situations and as a PnR ball-handler while still putting up solid numbers. Dudley would not be near Gallo's production as the #1 option in Denver and you would see a significant rise in Gallo's numbers playing in PHX and with Nash

I never said Dudley would be as productive as a number 1 option.

That being said, you have no substance to backup the assertion that Gallo would suddenly become more productive in a lesser role. You have no data to make that claim, other than his rookie season when he was playing 15 minutes off the bench...which is hardly comparable.

If you want to hypothesize that Gallo would suddenly become much more efficient as a 2/3 option rather than a 1/2, then feel free, but there's no information to back it up...It's just an assumption.

The_Jamal
10-16-2012, 09:02 PM
Doesn't change the fact that he converted at higher rates than Gallo. Contextualize it all you want, but the fact is that Dudley was a more efficient offensive player last year.

Efficiency doesn't mean crap when you take it out of context like your doing. Dudley is a role player who lived off Nash and spot-up shots. Gallo was the focus of defenses and had to create for himself, unlike Dudley.



I never said Dudley would be as productive as a number 1 option.

That being said, you have no substance to backup the assertion that Gallo would suddenly become more productive in a lesser role. You have no data to make that claim, other than his rookie season when he was playing 15 minutes off the bench...which is hardly comparable.

If you want to hypothesize that Gallo would suddenly become much more efficient as a 2/3 option rather than a 1/2, then feel free, but there's no information to back it up...It's just an assumption.

Actually you are. If Dudley and Gallo are a virtual wash, then Dudley would be just as productive in Denver as he was with PHX and Nash right?

Of course I'm making that assumption. Everything about Gallo's offensive game says he would be incredibly effective playing off a great #1 or passer like Paul. He's one of the most diverse scorers in the game and one of the best non-PG passers as well. He's just stuck in a role too big for him in Denver currently.

No matter how you try and spin it, calling Gallo and Dudley a wash is a pretty lavish assumption that uses highly questionable statistics and using absolutely zero context to support your claim.

ChiSox219
10-16-2012, 11:36 PM
The only reason Valencia is a believable team is because of Chris Paul and Hartford has Shumpert/Lowry to slow him down.

Alternatively, Valencia has arguably one of the worst defensive bigs to matchup against Hartford's #1 option.

I vote Hartford.

It's an ideal supporting cast for CP3 really well put together team. Bynum probably has a good series but Boozer will be invisible. CP3 slows down Lowry way more than the other way around. Shumpert won't do any better I call that a mismatch even.

Baller1
10-17-2012, 01:22 AM
Valencia.

Super.
10-17-2012, 01:37 AM
Valencia.

great reasoning.

Corey
10-17-2012, 01:41 AM
Of course I'm making that assumption. Everything about Gallo's offensive game says he would be incredibly effective playing off a great #1 or passer like Paul. He's one of the most diverse scorers in the game and one of the best non-PG passers as well. He's just stuck in a role too big for him in Denver currently.Lol.

So you can go out and make baseless assumptions with no evidence to support your claim other than your opinion, but I cant make assertions that are backed up by statistics?

Okie doke.

Fact remains: Last season Dudley was a more efficient scorer than Gallo was. It's dumb for you to assume that Gallo's efficiency would go up or down in a different offense -- you have no base of comparison to make that assertion.

Baller1
10-17-2012, 01:53 AM
great reasoning.

I think Valencia is a better team, so I voted for Valencia.

Super.
10-17-2012, 02:04 AM
I think Valencia is a better team, so I voted for Valencia.

More fantastic reasoning. Almost as good as player a > player b arguments.

The_Jamal
10-17-2012, 02:41 AM
Lol.

So you can go out and make baseless assumptions with no evidence to support your claim other than your opinion, but I cant make assertions that are backed up by statistics?

Okie doke.

Fact remains: Last season Dudley was a more efficient scorer than Gallo was. It's dumb for you to assume that Gallo's efficiency would go up or down in a different offense -- you have no base of comparison to make that assertion.

:shrug:

1. I cited plenty of statistics that showed Gallo would succeed not being a #1 option. He's an extremely versatile scorer that can score all over the floor. If he's not the focus of a defense, he'll have a lot more room to operate and get more open looks. 2. It's not a far-fetched assumption whatsoever to say his play would greatly improve with 2 great offensive players like Brook and Paul.

Good luck with your "statistics" backed claim that Dudley and Gallo are a virtual wash. It's a bit of a surprise to even see you try and defend something that ridiculous.

The_Jamal
10-17-2012, 02:48 AM
I did vote Hartford and think they would win this series in 6. A significant advantage in the post, the bench, and 2 excellent defenders to pressure Paul all series long is the perfect recipe to top Valencia.

It wouldn't be the playoffs without some kind of debate :)

Baller1
10-17-2012, 03:28 AM
More fantastic reasoning. Almost as good as player a > player b arguments.

You're right, my bad.

Team Valencia > Team Hartford.

PocketKings
10-17-2012, 10:18 AM
Bump! Need MOAR votes. :)

Super.
10-17-2012, 10:24 AM
We never claimed that Gallo and Dudley are a wash. Gallo is clearly the better all around player. We're just saying that Dudley has been a better shooter, and with his role on this team it's not going to change. Dudley's job is to camp out by the 3 point line and look for open kick outs from others.

Not to mention that Lopez most likely wont be able to take Bynum alone, which either gives Boozer more open looks, or Dudley.

Corey
10-17-2012, 11:51 AM
:shrug:

1. I cited plenty of statistics that showed Gallo would succeed not being a #1 option. He's an extremely versatile scorer that can score all over the floor. If he's not the focus of a defense, he'll have a lot more room to operate and get more open looks. 2. It's not a far-fetched assumption whatsoever to say his play would greatly improve with 2 great offensive players like Brook and Paul.

Good luck with your "statistics" backed claim that Dudley and Gallo are a virtual wash. It's a bit of a surprise to even see you try and defend something that ridiculous.

You cited nothing, because there's no actual evidence to support that Gallinari would be any more efficient as a #2 or #3 option. He never has been. You're basing your argument off the assumption that his percentages would increase in a lesser role -- there's no evidence to back up this claim.

Dudley shoots higher percentages across the board. He's the better catch and shoot player. He's shooting above 40% from deep for his career.

Gallo has more talent, but that doesn't mean his on court production is going to be significantly better.

Corey
10-17-2012, 11:52 AM
Anywho, I'll reiterate:

Hartford has two premiere defenders to guard Chris Paul.

Hartford has a major advantage in the post.

Hartford has 5 players to bring off the bench that were primary NBA starters last season, as well as an NBA lottery pick.

Hartford has home court advantage.

Hartford has a balanced starting lineup where every player fits a specific role.

Offensively, Hartford has a great facilitator who also shoots very well, a slasher, a shooter, a high pick and roll big man, and a low post big man. Defensively, we have the best starting backcourt to defend their best player, and the second best center in the league guarding the post.

Our bench contains shooters, defenders, slashers, and quality big men that can score and defend.

Good luck to everyone involved.

The_Jamal
10-17-2012, 12:53 PM
You cited nothing, because there's no actual evidence to support that Gallinari would be any more efficient as a #2 or #3 option. He never has been. You're basing your argument off the assumption that his percentages would increase in a lesser role -- there's no evidence to back up this claim.

Dudley shoots higher percentages across the board. He's the better catch and shoot player. He's shooting above 40% from deep for his career.

Gallo has more talent, but that doesn't mean his on court production is going to be significantly better.

What? Gallo will outproduce Dudley because he's better on both ends of the court. Sure, Dudley's more efficient, but we've firmly established that it's because of the different role's the play for their respective teams. There is plenty of evidence to show Gall could be more effective in a lesser role; you just choose to ignore it.


Never mind the fact that Gallo is a much better defender, passer, and unlike Dudley, can actually create his own shot for himself and others. They are not a "virtual wash" as you stated in your write-up or even close to it; no matter how you try and spin an argument in your favor

The_Jamal
10-17-2012, 12:55 PM
We never claimed that Gallo and Dudley are a wash. Gallo is clearly the better all around player. We're just saying that Dudley has been a better shooter, and with his role on this team it's not going to change. Dudley's job is to camp out by the 3 point line and look for open kick outs from others.

Not to mention that Lopez most likely wont be able to take Bynum alone, which either gives Boozer more open looks, or Dudley.

Which I absolutely agree with. However, Corey stated twice in the write-up that they are a "virtual wash" and that they would have "equal production" in this series.

Corey
10-17-2012, 01:26 PM
In terms of actual point production, yes. I believe that there will be a very similar output from the two players assuming they're taking the same amount of shots.

Sadds The Gr8
10-17-2012, 02:00 PM
Once again Gallo getting overrated on PSD. Yes he's better than Dudley but you guys are acting like they're worlds apart. He's a more talented player and can do more things, but it's not far-fetched to say that Dudley can match his scoring production, especially in the playoffs, where Gallo has sucked *** in his career. Gallinari is a tease...he has the potential to put up big numbers but still hasn't done it, so you can't assume that he'll "own" Dudley. Dudley won't pass like him, but he can put up close to the amount of points Gallo can put up from the open shots he'll get. Gallo isn't taking over or dominating any series.

Super.
10-17-2012, 03:30 PM
Once again Gallo getting overrated on PSD. Yes he's better than Dudley but you guys are acting like they're worlds apart. He's a more talented player and can do more things, but it's not far-fetched to say that Dudley can match his scoring production, especially in the playoffs, where Gallo has sucked *** in his career. Gallinari is a tease...he has the potential to put up big numbers but still hasn't done it, so you can't assume that he'll "own" Dudley. Dudley won't pass like him, but he can put up close to the amount of points Gallo can put up from the open shots he'll get. Gallo isn't taking over or dominating any series.

PSD Rep +1

Catfish1314
10-17-2012, 03:43 PM
I'm really surprised this Gallo-Dudley thing has gone on so long. I'm pretty sure nobody's been fooled.

Raidaz4Life
10-17-2012, 03:51 PM
I'm really surprised this Gallo-Dudley thing has gone on so long. I'm pretty sure nobody's been fooled.

I am as well since I don't find that matchup will impact the overall outcome.

Catfish1314
10-17-2012, 08:58 PM
Forum going down killed our comeback. Still down one. Keep voting people :)

How serious am I?

Corey
10-17-2012, 09:09 PM
I'm really surprised this Gallo-Dudley thing has gone on so long. I'm pretty sure nobody's been fooled.

I am as well since I don't find that matchup will impact the overall outcome.yeppp.

Hartford has the defenders to help contain Paul, a clear advantage in the paint, a stronger bench, AND home court

Catfish1314
10-17-2012, 09:28 PM
contain Paul

No such thing.


clear advantage in the paint

Boozer in May. Garbage. No back-up for Bynum and his fouls either.

Anyway looks like you guys got it. I hate to see us lose by one point especially when five hours of the voting period was robbed (yes, a hollow point considering more votes could have gone to Hartford in that span), but heck of a series.

Congrats to Corey and Superdude. Good luck to both of you next round :)

Corey
10-17-2012, 09:32 PM
Paul isn't going to take over a series with individual scoring, especially with two elite perimeter defenders on him.

Catfish1314
10-17-2012, 09:34 PM
Paul isn't going to take over a series with individual scoring, especially with two elite perimeter defenders on him.

Pushing it. Pushing it so hard. Especially when all kinds of numbers suggest otherwise.

For the record, you won already.

Corey
10-17-2012, 09:37 PM
I'll save my Boozer defense for next round I guess. Thanks for the fun debates in this thread guys. I don't expect anyone to take any of this personally.

phlp_bj
10-17-2012, 10:14 PM
Hartford advances