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View Full Version : Should The Nationals Regret the Strasburg Shutdown?



Nomar
10-13-2012, 10:28 AM
How big of a difference would he have made? Discuss

HowFit
10-13-2012, 10:49 AM
What I was thinking about earlier this morning...

7chuck7
10-13-2012, 10:50 AM
How big of a difference would he have made? Discuss

They would have beat the Cards without a doubt. The guy is healed and can pitch. What a shame. Now he will have to deal with the fact he was not there to help his team even though it was not his wish to sit. Whoever made that decision should be run out of D.C.

1908_Cubs
10-13-2012, 11:02 AM
On one hand, it may have helped this year. But if it keeps him out of harms way another year and they go on and win a world series, it's worth it. Thing is, we'll never know because we cannot see alternate scenarios, but this could have been the best thing they could have done.

I watched the Cubs run Mark Prior straight into the ground. Would I rather have had him in 2003? Or would I rather still have him as the ace of my staff in 2013? I'd rather have him still.

Twitchy
10-13-2012, 11:11 AM
The Nats still could have made the playoffs, kept Strasburg's innings down AND used him in the playoffs. Either shut him down mid season or start him a month later so that he starts the season in May instead of April. Or his skip his starts a few times. Any or all of these things would have allowed them to use him in the playoffs.

It's their own fault for not having him in the playoffs.

Considering the fact they had a 2 run lead in the ninth to win the series it wouldn't have mattered whether they had used him or not if they won the game. They should have won the game, and their closer blew it. Having Stras would have helped, but the bottom line is that they should have won the series even without him and they blew it when all they needed to do was get 3 outs with a 2 run lead.

It's also worth pointing out the Nats got outscored by 20 runs. Stras might have helped lower that total, but it's pretty clear the Cardinals outplayed the Nats with or without Stras.

I can see both sides of the argument. I think they made a mistake not using him, but we wouldn't be having this conversation had Storen got 3 outs without allowing any runs.

TrueYankee
10-13-2012, 11:11 AM
They did the right thing. Haters gonna hate.

Bombtista
10-13-2012, 11:13 AM
Yes. He would have won a game for them and theres no reason to expect that he wouldn't

SenorGato
10-13-2012, 11:23 AM
One of their 5 best players is over 30...Werth amongst the two Zimmermans, himself, Harper, and Strasburg. Two of those guys are not even 25 and those are the two highest ceiling players.

Theyll have one or two more opportunities, if not significantly more.

Twitchy
10-13-2012, 11:28 AM
Just an interesting thought experiment - which game would they have won if Stras pitched?

If you leave Gonzalez in game 1 (because he won), that limits Strasburg to games 2-4. Probably don't want to pitch him in game 4 either, since they won that game too.

So if he pitches game 2 - he goes 6 innings, maybe 7. He never went more than 7 in the regular season and I don't think they'd push him more than that here. Guess what? That was the game one of their top relievers gave up 4 runs in the 8th. Maybe that doesn't happen again, but it's important to keep in mind.

If Stras only goes 6, it's likely Stammen comes into the game. AKA, the guy who went 1/3 of an inning and gave up 2 runs. Or Burnett. The guy who gave up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning in game 2.

So it's not clear Stras would have saved the day here either. Fair to say he would have done better than Zimmermann did, but we saw the Cards destroy the Nats bullpen in game 2 (hell, pretty much every game) and they likely would have been asked to pitch 2-3 innings. Considering that only two of their relievers (Clippard and Garcia) had an ERA under 6, it's pretty likely that the pen would have given up a run or two. Especially when you consider that Garcia/Clippard likely wouldn't have been the guys coming into the game in the 7th, if Stras only goes 6. And Stras could have allowed a run or two in 6-7 innings. So it might have only been 4-1 or 4-2 when he left. As we saw last night, 2 run leads aren't the safest thing for the Nats bullpen.

If he pitches game 3 - they still lose, cause the Nats got shut out.

They won game 4 -so we're not going to remove Detwiler here.

And Stras ain't pitching game 5 cause we let Gonzalez pitch game one.

So if Stras pitches in game 3 they still lose. Really the only chance they had was game 2. So unless he threw a 7 inning shutout here, they probably lose game 3 too.

Still a terrible decision to leave him off the roster, but I don't think him not pitching cost them the series.

YanksNats1987
10-13-2012, 12:07 PM
Just an interesting thought experiment - which game would they have won if Stras pitched?

If you leave Gonzalez in game 1 (because he won), that limits Strasburg to games 2-4. Probably don't want to pitch him in game 4 either, since they won that game too.

So if he pitches game 2 - he goes 6 innings, maybe 7. He never went more than 7 in the regular season and I don't think they'd push him more than that here. Guess what? That was the game one of their top relievers gave up 4 runs in the 8th. Maybe that doesn't happen again, but it's important to keep in mind.

If Stras only goes 6, it's likely Stammen comes into the game. AKA, the guy who went 1/3 of an inning and gave up 2 runs. Or Burnett. The guy who gave up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning in game 2.

So it's not clear Stras would have saved the day here either. Fair to say he would have done better than Zimmermann did, but we saw the Cards destroy the Nats bullpen in game 2 (hell, pretty much every game) and they likely would have been asked to pitch 2-3 innings. Considering that only two of their relievers (Clippard and Garcia) had an ERA under 6, it's pretty likely that the pen would have given up a run or two. Especially when you consider that Garcia/Clippard likely wouldn't have been the guys coming into the game in the 7th, if Stras only goes 6. And Stras could have allowed a run or two in 6-7 innings. So it might have only been 4-1 or 4-2 when he left. As we saw last night, 2 run leads aren't the safest thing for the Nats bullpen.

If he pitches game 3 - they still lose, cause the Nats got shut out.

They won game 4 -so we're not going to remove Detwiler here.

And Stras ain't pitching game 5 cause we let Gonzalez pitch game one.

So if Stras pitches in game 3 they still lose. Really the only chance they had was game 2. So unless he threw a 7 inning shutout here, they probably lose game 3 too.

Still a terrible decision to leave him off the roster, but I don't think him not pitching cost them the series.

Thanks for laying out the game by game reality, which most don't want to consider. Although people will still complain.

Apparently with Strasburg people think baseball becomes a 1 man game and not 25.

infernoscurse
10-13-2012, 12:12 PM
hindsight

nothing is a given, they could have lost even with strasburg

Beltrans Mole
10-13-2012, 12:21 PM
There's no defending the GMs move in my eyes...even before a heart-breaking Game 5 loss in which he should've started in the first place.

abe_froman
10-13-2012, 12:24 PM
not really hindsight,alot of people said this was a really possibility of happening and shouldnt do it when he was shut down because this would happen(including our very own guru jeffy....if you want to bring that thread back from the dead).

not saying he would have swung it for dc,but he gave them their best shot at winning.which is why it was stupid to do it

metswon69
10-13-2012, 12:26 PM
Well he certainly could have pitched in some of those spots even out of the pen if they really needed him and who knows if he wins game 1 or game 2 that series might have never gone 5 games.

Saying that, the Nationals had their opportunity to win that series, they blew a 6-0 lead in the deciding game.

There is really no excuse for that either way.

metswon69
10-13-2012, 12:29 PM
Either way long term, they have a very good team with very good pieces.

There is no reason why they shouldn't win that division next year barring injury.

The Braves are going to be weaker, the Phillies have some work to do if they want to get back in that race, the Mets suck, and the Marlins are a disgrace of a franchise that as you can see by their dismantling last year aren't in the business of winning baseball games.

Twitchy
10-13-2012, 12:43 PM
Well he certainly could have pitched in some of those spots even out of the pen if they really needed him and who knows if he wins game 1 or game 2 that series might have never gone 5 games.

Saying that, the Nationals had their opportunity to win that series, they blew a 6-0 lead in the deciding game.

There is really no excuse for that either way.

The Nats did win game one.

metswon69
10-13-2012, 12:46 PM
The Nats did win game one.

Yeah i meant if Strasburg had pitched it winning that game.

Then Gio is in his more natural spot as the 2nd starter (even though he did pitch like an Ace all year, i still think they would have tapped Strasburg for game 1 in that series)

That series could have been completely different if Strasburg was available.

Max Power
10-13-2012, 12:51 PM
I hope they never get back and he bolts first chance he gets. They screwed the current roster, the fans, and him.

seikou8
10-13-2012, 12:53 PM
Yeah i meant if Strasburg had pitched it winning that game.

Then Gio is in his more natural spot as the 2nd starter (even though he did pitch like an Ace all year, i still think they would have tapped Strasburg for game 1 in that series)

That series could have been completely different if Strasburg was available.

true nothing is given ,man this postseason makes happy the yankees have had mo all this years even more then before

AWC713
10-13-2012, 12:56 PM
you can say what you want but starting pitchers for WAS didnt lose the series. Storen did.

zookman65
10-13-2012, 12:56 PM
Either way long term, they have a very good team with very good pieces.

There is no reason why they shouldn't win that division next year barring injury.
The Braves are going to be weaker, the Phillies have some work to do if they want to get back in that race, the Mets suck, and the Marlins are a disgrace of a franchise that as you can see by their dismantling last year aren't in the business of winning baseball games.

Famous last words that countless teams have thought. No reason Angels should have missed the playoffs this year and that is even before we knew how Trout would blow-up. Any playoff series loss is a lost opportunity that you will never get back. So many people on this board have argued that Stras couldnt have made much of a difference in the Cards series that the Nats might as well just trade him for some prospects since having him on the roster doesnt apparently increase your chances of winning a series - I'm just sayin...

xxplayerxx23
10-13-2012, 12:59 PM
Straz on this team is a championship caliabar team. You don't know what's going to happen for years to come. They should of went with it. IMO stupid choice, Strazburg could of pitched in the playoffs.

zookman65
10-13-2012, 01:00 PM
you can say what you want but starting pitchers for WAS didnt lose the series. Storen did.

Yes well if Storen had Verlander errr Strasburg hand him a 6 run lead it might have been easier to hold. In a 5 game series it is nice to have an ace pitch 7,8, or 9 shut out innings in games 1 and 5. You dont know what affect Stras.. would have had. Of course it is a foregone conclusion that the Nats will win the NL East next year - I almost forgot that..

oballers
10-13-2012, 01:01 PM
Yes! I mean this emphatically. This shows their lack of commitment to winning and overall poor planning. If you want to give him rest do it at the beginning of the season or peper the beginning and middle with days off.

This was Strassburg's chance to lead them to a championship and they flat out blew it. They may never even sniff the playoffs again. Nothing is guaranteed. For that matter Strassburg could trip over a cofffee table or be hit by a bus ans never walk let alone play baseball again and then what? Do you know who would regret it the most... Strassburg. He could've led his team to a World Series win. Now ita just wait and see.

Well rhats a big wait and see. Just think about how many teams actually repeat as WS champions. Or all those teams that are in the playoffs one year and then out for 10. How many years was it between the Yanks last 2 WS wins? Are Werth and Zimmerman and the other vets getting any younger? Could key pitchers like Gio and others blow out their arms next year? And again the year? Its happened many times.

Most importantly willcertain other teams get even better via trades, FA Markey, rookies devloping? Who knows? There are no guarantees in baseball and tbe Nationals totally and utterly blew it.

This is like a mother locking her child in its room all winter becaus er she's afraid he'll catcj a cold outside. Great no cold, but now what have you done? You probably have one emotionally f##ked up kid.

metswon69
10-13-2012, 01:03 PM
Famous last words that countless teams have thought. No reason Angels should have missed the playoffs this year and that is even before we knew how Trout would blow-up. Any playoff series loss is a lost opportunity that you will never get back. So many people on this board have argued that Stras couldnt have made much of a difference in the Cards series that the Nats might as well just trade him for some prospects since having him on the roster doesnt apparently increase your chances of winning a series - I'm just sayin...

The Braves are possibly gonna lose Bourn and Ross through FA (with Chipper retiring but i know they have Gattis who they like a lot a C)

The Phillies need a makeover, their core is getting older, their bullpen was atrocious, and their SP wasn't as great as it was in previous years (although that's the team i would look to see the Nationals best competition if they spend money this offseason)

The Marlins are a joke of a franchise and the Mets are a complete mess with no bullpen and no offense (Those 2 teams have no chance next year)

My previous post hasn't changed.

Barring injury, i think the Nationals are still the favorite in that division and only have two others in the same breath as them in the division.

-Lavigne43-
10-13-2012, 01:14 PM
It would have been the same result. Detwiler took his spot and he gave them their best and most important start.

And people who are hoping that they never make the playoffs again because of this decision and how unfair it was to the fans/team are lying. They are really hoping the Nationals don't make the playoffs again because the Nationals are a scary team with an owner willing to spend big. They will be back many times.

koreancabbage
10-13-2012, 01:22 PM
they are going to be good, but who knows, they might have went all the way if Strasburg pitches game 1 and 4? limit to 6-7innings max? too many variables.

They might not even make the playoffs next year due to other injuries in the batting lineup. Its already hard enough to make the playoffs (a little easier with additional wild card) but its still a 162 game grind.

Azzacadabra
10-13-2012, 01:27 PM
Cardinals won it more than the Nationals lost it.

oballers
10-13-2012, 01:34 PM
It would have been the same result. Detwiler took his spot and he gave them their best and most important start.

And people who are hoping that they never make the playoffs again because of this decision and how unfair it was to the fans/team are lying. They are really hoping the Nationals don't make the playoffs again because the Nationals are a scary team with an owner willing to spend big. They will be back many times.

Go ask Angels and Rangers fans how easy it is to repeat and or surpass what you did before. For that matter in the Yanks and Red sox have both won only twice in 10 years and the cards have won only twice in 30 years. (Bos 2x in 100).

Winning is nit guaranteed nor easy and if you are dedicated to it then you do all that you can to increase your chances of it happening. Period.

metswon69
10-13-2012, 01:44 PM
Go ask Angels and Rangers fans how easy it is to repeat and or surpass what you did before. For that matter in the Yanks and Red sox have both won only twice in 10 years and the cards have won only twice in 30 years. (Bos 2x in 100).

Winning is nit guaranteed nor easy and if you are dedicated to it then you do all that you can to increase your chances of it happening. Period.

Did you guys watch how good the Nationals were this year?

The Rangers did repeat btw, and made the playoffs three years in a row with the same core of guys.

That team is built to compete long term with guys like Strasburg, Gio, Detweiller, Espinosa, Ramos, Desmond, Harper, Morse, Zimmerman, Laroche and a list of other guys that they could re-sign or sign in FA going forward.

They are stacked with talent and are very young.

There is no reason why they shouldn't have a run at that division for the next 2 or 3 years and you can eliminate 2 teams right off the bat next year (the Marlins and the Mets)

Hawkize31
10-13-2012, 01:55 PM
They would have beat the Cards without a doubt. The guy is healed and can pitch. What a shame. Now he will have to deal with the fact he was not there to help his team even though it was not his wish to sit. Whoever made that decision should be run out of D.C.

There's ZERO CHANCE Strasburg has a bad game?

The correct answer is, they may have won, they may have lost. Almost impossible to say. I think Strasburg playing would have increased their chances for sure.

One thing I see, though, and the Natinals execs/management will key on this I'm sure, is that they had a lead in the decisive game in the 9th inning. They were exactly where they wanted to be. Their bullpen blew it, and Strasburg couldn't have done anything about that.

oballers
10-13-2012, 02:03 PM
Did you guys watch how good the Nationals were this year?

The Rangers did repeat btw, and made the playoffs three years in a row with the same core of guys.

That team is built to compete long term with guys like Strasburg, Gio, Detweiller, Espinosa, Ramos, Desmond, Harper, Morse, Zimmerman, Laroche and a list of other guys that they could re-sign or sign in FA going forward.

They are stacked with talent and are very young.

There is no reason why they shouldn't have a run at that division for the next 2 or 3 years and you can eliminate 2 teams right off the bat next year (the Marlins and the Mets)

In order of comments:

Yes, I did. Which is why I think they should have gone all-in this year. It was their year to lose or win it.


Which consecutive WSs did Texas win again? How did they do this year?
3 consecutive playoff visits????? So what?

You play to win the World Series not to get into the playoffs! The playoffs are just a necessary step toward an ultimate goal.

Once again nothing is guaranteed. The Marlins could easily stock up on FAs and buy a world series like they did almost 10 years ago. The Mets could be next year's Oakland A's especially with Dickey.

There are no guarantees at all, because outside baseball there is real life too. Go ask Pittsburgh about what happened to Arriba or the Yanks about Tugboat.

1903
10-13-2012, 02:04 PM
It would have gave them a better chance. I will take a top 3 of Gio, Strasburg, and Zimmerman instead of Jackson being in there. Perhaps they win the first 2 and it's a different series. More pressure on the Cards to win 3 straight.

oballers
10-13-2012, 02:05 PM
There's ZERO CHANCE Strasburg has a bad game?

No, but you take your chances and put your best foot forward. Man you could have used him in the Bullpen!

gattaca
10-13-2012, 02:09 PM
YES!
Huge mistake shutting him down, because now the Nats and their fans will never know what could have happened if he played

metswon69
10-13-2012, 02:09 PM
In order of comments:

Yes, I did. Which is why I think they should have gone all in this year. It was their year to lose or win it.


Which consecutive WSs did Texas win again? How did they do this year?
3 consecutive playoff visits????? So what?

You play to win the World Series not to get into the playoffs! The playoffs are just a necessary step toward an ultimate goal.

Once again nothing is guaranteed. The Marlins could easily stock up on FAs and buy a world series like they did almost 10 years ago. The Mets could be next year's Oakland A's especially with Dickey.

There are no guarantees at all, because outside baseball there is real life too. Go ask Pittsburgh about what happened to Arriba or the Yanks about Tugboat.

All you need to do is get in to the playoffs.

The Texas Rangers have built a consistent winner, and if they had a better closer maybe they would have won the WS last year (or blew 2 late inning leads for that matter).

And if they re-sign Hamilton i am sure they will be there to the end again next year.

You can build consistent winners in MLB, this isn't the NFL.

Look at the Phillies. They won the division 5 years in a row up until this year.

It's not impossible and you don't need to be the Yankees to pull it off.

The Marlins have no interest in winning (i doubt very highly they go after FA after blowing it up last year halfway through the season) and the Mets have no shot when they have an owner unwilling to add payroll.

It comes down to 3 teams next year for that division and the Phillies need to improve before you can even throw them in that discussion to be honest.

Like i said in my other 2 posts, the Nationals are incredibly talented and barring injury they will win that division again next year.

gattaca
10-13-2012, 02:10 PM
There's ZERO CHANCE Strasburg has a bad game?

The correct answer is, they may have won, they may have lost. Almost impossible to say. I think Strasburg playing would have increased their chances for sure.
.

this

metswon69
10-13-2012, 02:11 PM
Nothing is a guaranteed in life (except that old adage death & taxes) but the likelihood of the Nationals being the best team in that division is incredibly high.

They have payroll flexibility, they have a very talented core, and their main competition the Braves and Phillies might possibly get worse this offseason, not better.

Maybe that changes if Strasburg or Gio go down in game 1 next year but i still think even if that's the case they would be a playoff team (they are that good imo)

raidersrock99
10-13-2012, 02:16 PM
does strasburg close? then no it doesnt matter

Ian.
10-13-2012, 02:20 PM
does strasburg close? then no it doesnt matter

Did Zimmerman or Stammen close?

Nope. They gave up seven earned runs in a start that should have been Strasburg's.

He goes seven innings of one run ball, this could be an entirely different situation.

I understand the thinking of the front office. Preserve his future. Well, the entire reason for playing in the MLB is to win a championship. Benching your best player and one of the most talented pitchers in baseball before the playoffs even begin is just silly to me. If they don't make the playoffs for another couple years, this looks even worse.

rickshaw
10-13-2012, 02:36 PM
No, first of all it wasn't worth the risk, long term.

Second, he would started in place of Detwiler, who started a game which the Nats won anyway. Edwin Jackson and Zimmerman still would have pitched and Gio would have still pitched games 1 and 5.

Ian.
10-13-2012, 02:46 PM
No, first of all it wasn't worth the risk, long term.

Second, he would started in place of Detwiler, who started a game which the Nats won anyway. Edwin Jackson and Zimmerman still would have pitched and Gio would have still pitched games 1 and 5.

I'd have started him game two. Then again, I'm not a major league manager that just advanced to the NLCS

Oh wait

netsgiantsyanks
10-13-2012, 02:57 PM
the real question is: what the **** happened last night? last time i checked it was 6-0.

rickshaw
10-13-2012, 03:01 PM
I'd have started him game two. Then again, I'm not a major league manager that just advanced to the NLCS

Oh wait

OK, and you still have Zimmerman and Jackson starting games 3 & 4, and Gio game 5...

bootleg42
10-13-2012, 03:04 PM
You get a Steven Strasburg to pitch in the playoffs and get you world series titles.

Even though they're good, what makes you 100% sure the Nationals will make the playoffs again?????

If they were controlling innings, they could have shut him down in August because they had a big lead in the division. Heck, if they were confident in going into the playoffs without him, what difference would it have made if they had let him get a 2 - 1.5 month rest from August??? That way they could have had a well rested Ace for October.

Would it have made sense for the Mets to shut down Dwight Gooden in 1986???? or 1988???? No. This was a dumb move and if I were a Nationals fan, I'd be upset beyond belief.

oballers
10-13-2012, 03:07 PM
A lot of you guys get baseball, but you don't understand winning. When you are shown a window of opportunity you go for it full bore... There's no other way. Plan from day one to be in the WS or don't play.

Maybe you gotta be a Yankee fan to get what I am talking about. Put it to you this way I could give a crap about all our playoff appearances in the last 10 years all I care about are thd hdhe two WS wins.

I know a lot of people that can tell you every WS champion from 1970 to today. There are a few people who could tell you who they played in the WS. Nobody save probably an idiot savant that likly can't dress or feed themselves can tell you who made the playoffs, let alone who lost in the AL or NLCS.

zookman65
10-13-2012, 03:07 PM
Either way long term, they have a very good team with very good pieces.

There is no reason why they shouldn't win that division next year barring injury.

The Braves are going to be weaker, the Phillies have some work to do if they want to get back in that race, the Mets suck, and the Marlins are a disgrace of a franchise that as you can see by their dismantling last year aren't in the business of winning baseball games.

Yes and there was no reason the Rangers and Angels shouldnt have beat out the Oakland ****ing As who were picked by most before the season to finish behind the Mariners. You are missing the point - yes they have a very good team with a strong core however I can tell you with mathematical certainty there odds of making the playoffs in 2012 was 100% (since it already happened) and you can only guess on next year and beyond. Shouldnt have shut him down since that decision was based on management emotion not SCIENCE.

metswon69
10-13-2012, 03:12 PM
Yes and there was no reason the Rangers and Angels shouldnt have beat out the Oakland ****ing As who were picked by most before the season to finish behind the Mariners. You are missing the point - yes they have a very good team with a strong core however I can tell you with mathematical certainty there odds of making the playoffs in 2012 was 100% (since it already happened) and you can only guess on next year and beyond. Shouldnt have shut him down since that decision was based on management emotion not SCIENCE.

I understand that but they there opportunities to win this series including a 6-0 lead in the deciding game. Detweiller pitched fine in Strasburg's absence, they blew it.

Like you said nobody can guarantee anything, but as a fan of this division who watches all 162 games a year the Nationals are the best team.

Could something incredibly radical happen to change that next year? Yeah but i can guarantee you it wont come from the Mets or Marlins.

My argument was never about shutting him down btw, my argument is that they had an opportunity to win without him and whether or not they still have the best team in the NL East next year.

They'll be other opportunities for that team to take a bite out of the apple.

TyrionLannister
10-13-2012, 03:56 PM
Which game/s are they starting him in?

I figured if he was playing they'd start, in order:

Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmerman, Jackson, Strasburg

Just my guess.

ccugrad1
10-13-2012, 04:35 PM
It was bad regardless. When was the last time you saw a team shut down it's "ace" unless he was hurt? To me, when they shut Strasburg down, they told me they had no interest in winning!

STL Don
10-13-2012, 04:53 PM
Well STL didn't have a healthy Lance Berkman either...so the Nats weren't just the only team without one of their better players.

Nomar
10-13-2012, 05:08 PM
Hard to say hindsight is 20/20 because it is blatant that they are a worse team without Strasburg.

Rain City
10-13-2012, 05:18 PM
im prolly hugely outnumbered on this but i like wut nats did.

even w/ stras they weren't going to win it all.... they proved last night they are too inexperienced, and it was going to get the best of em.

do you guys know the % of a guy getting an arm injury the year after he increases his innings by more than 20%?.... its practically a given at close to 80%... throw in he is only 2 yrs removed from TJ....

remember wut happened to prior and woods after dusty threw caution to the wind and let them go?! it costed them a dynasty and ruined 2 SURE FIRE HOF careers.

also, they are dynasty-minded.... u got to love that.... the majority of their roster just entered or not even reached their prime.... throw in stras building up to 200innings next yr.... they will be back.

in the playoffs u cant monitor a pitcher... its too intense... u either shut him down or let him go.... nats were rightfully scared to death to let strasburg go.... they know a millenium will go by before they get another chance to draft a strasburg.

good job nats! i believe in time they will be applauded.

More-Than-Most
10-13-2012, 05:45 PM
Yes but lets be realistic they should have won yesterday but shat themselves.

If Stras plays maybe they get swept :shrug:

LOOTERX9
10-13-2012, 05:56 PM
It's the dumbest , softest, and most candy assed move done in awhile by a baseball team . The Nats volunteered to keep their ace out of a playoff series even though he was not injured. WTF? If I were a NATS fan I would be utterly angry at that organization for a long time

Texas Holders
10-13-2012, 06:00 PM
im prolly hugely outnumbered on this but i like wut nats did.

even w/ stras they weren't going to win it all.... they proved last night they are too inexperienced, and it was going to get the best of em.

do you guys know the % of a guy getting an arm injury the year after he increases his innings by more than 20%?.... its practically a given at close to 80%... throw in he is only 2 yrs removed from TJ....

remember wut happened to prior and woods after dusty threw caution to the wind and let them go?! it costed them a dynasty and ruined 2 SURE FIRE HOF careers.

also, they are dynasty-minded.... u got to love that.... the majority of their roster just entered or not even reached their prime.... throw in stras building up to 200innings next yr.... they will be back.

in the playoffs u cant monitor a pitcher... its too intense... u either shut him down or let him go.... nats were rightfully scared to death to let strasburg go.... they know a millenium will go by before they get another chance to draft a strasburg.

good job nats! i believe in time they will be applauded.

He increased his innings pitched by 563% from 2011, does that mean his arm will fall off?

HowFit
10-13-2012, 06:23 PM
Either way long term, they have a very good team with very good pieces.

There is no reason why they shouldn't win that division next year barring injury.

The Braves are going to be weaker, the Phillies have some work to do if they want to get back in that race, the Mets suck, and the Marlins are a disgrace of a franchise that as you can see by their dismantling last year aren't in the business of winning baseball games.

How are the Braves gonna be weaker? You won't know til you see what they'll do with the 25 million to their lineup this offseason...

GottaBelieve
10-13-2012, 06:32 PM
Opportunities to win the world series don't come around every year.

Sure, the nats should get another shot with their team, but you just don't know.

When you have the best record in the game, you should go for it all.

WadeKobe
10-13-2012, 08:29 PM
Just an interesting thought experiment - which game would they have won if Stras pitched?

If you leave Gonzalez in game 1 (because he won), that limits Strasburg to games 2-4. Probably don't want to pitch him in game 4 either, since they won that game too.

So if he pitches game 2 - he goes 6 innings, maybe 7. He never went more than 7 in the regular season and I don't think they'd push him more than that here. Guess what? That was the game one of their top relievers gave up 4 runs in the 8th. Maybe that doesn't happen again, but it's important to keep in mind.

If Stras only goes 6, it's likely Stammen comes into the game. AKA, the guy who went 1/3 of an inning and gave up 2 runs. Or Burnett. The guy who gave up 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning in game 2.

So it's not clear Stras would have saved the day here either. Fair to say he would have done better than Zimmermann did, but we saw the Cards destroy the Nats bullpen in game 2 (hell, pretty much every game) and they likely would have been asked to pitch 2-3 innings. Considering that only two of their relievers (Clippard and Garcia) had an ERA under 6, it's pretty likely that the pen would have given up a run or two. Especially when you consider that Garcia/Clippard likely wouldn't have been the guys coming into the game in the 7th, if Stras only goes 6. And Stras could have allowed a run or two in 6-7 innings. So it might have only been 4-1 or 4-2 when he left. As we saw last night, 2 run leads aren't the safest thing for the Nats bullpen.

If he pitches game 3 - they still lose, cause the Nats got shut out.

They won game 4 -so we're not going to remove Detwiler here.

And Stras ain't pitching game 5 cause we let Gonzalez pitch game one.

So if Stras pitches in game 3 they still lose. Really the only chance they had was game 2. So unless he threw a 7 inning shutout here, they probably lose game 3 too.

Still a terrible decision to leave him off the roster, but I don't think him not pitching cost them the series.

You see, I am in between on this. They decided to shut Stras down. Ok, sounds good. That should be our starting point. From there, why didn't they keep him on the roster and on hand in the bullpen for must-have situations?

He could have started game 5, though that might not have made a difference.

Well, the better scenario is this....

You stick to your 4-man rotation, start Gio game 5 and, when he has to be pulled, Stras is your reliever and you ride him. Your two best pitchers, and they can give you the entire game. It's what the Diamonbacks did with Randy and Curt and it worked.

I think the Nats win that game if Stras comes in relief and shuts the door on them. It never gets close enough to get blown in the 9th.

They could have used him in this capacity all playoffs long. Just in go-to situations in clinching or elimination games.

oballers
10-14-2012, 12:44 AM
You see, I am in between on this. They decided to shut Stras down. Ok, sounds good. That should be our starting point. From there, why didn't they keep him on the roster and on hand in the bullpen for must-have situations?

He could have started game 5, though that might not have made a difference.

Well, the better scenario is this....

You stick to your 4-man rotation, start Gio game 5 and, when he has to be pulled, Stras is your reliever and you ride him. Your two best pitchers, and they can give you the entire game. It's what the Diamonbacks did with Randy and Curt and it worked.

I think the Nats win that game if Stras comes in relief and shuts the door on them. It never gets close enough to get blown in the 9th.

They could have used him in this capacity all playoffs long. Just in go-to situations in clinching or elimination games.

Yes this is 1 way. Totally agree or you can do what the yankees have often done and tighten your rotation in the AlCS to 3 or 4.

metswon69
10-14-2012, 02:58 AM
How are the Braves gonna be weaker? You won't know til you see what they'll do with the 25 million to their lineup this offseason...

They have to possibly replace Bourne, Chipper, and Ross.

Not going to be easy because the FA is weak this offseason, not to mention how do you know what and where they will spend payroll on.

McCann regressed last year offensively and Uggla didn't look particularly good either.

Unless they plug up some of those holes in FA or via trade, they won't win 94 games again next year.

Pinstripe pride
10-15-2012, 09:07 AM
absolutley

Ian.
10-15-2012, 10:48 AM
Hell, they could have used him out of the pen at very least. They sure needed it.

koreancabbage
10-15-2012, 10:52 AM
if you knew you were shutting him down and you were going to have a great chance to make the playoffs, you ease up his place in the rotation (6 -7 days rest or something like that)

or put him in the pen to save his arm to save for the post season. its def a mismanagement of an asset, regardless of if you think its right or not. There were many other ways to handle this than sitting out your best pitcher on a unproven theory that he just might break his arm in the post season. At the end of the day, they just went with a gut feeling.

milominderbinde
10-15-2012, 11:55 AM
if you knew you were shutting him down and you were going to have a great chance to make the playoffs, you ease up his place in the rotation (6 -7 days rest or something like that)

or put him in the pen to save his arm to save for the post season. its def a mismanagement of an asset, .

This.

One of the most inexplicable blunders of all time. I would be beyond furious if I were a Nats fan.

Jeffy25
10-15-2012, 01:24 PM
How big of a difference would he have made? Discuss

well, he would have started instead of Edwin Jackson, and he couldn't have been worse than Edwin.

And Strasburg would have likely started Games 1 and 5, so you have to think he helps them win.


Long term effects or not, it probably did cost them the NLDS.

Nationals ownership would probably not admit that, but considering this series came down to the last strike 3 times, you have to think having the best one game pitcher in this series would have made a difference. Pretty silly to dismiss it outright.

Jeffy25
10-15-2012, 01:25 PM
How to handle this incorrectly.........what the Nationals did


How to handle this correctly..........what the Braves did with Medlen.


Very very different.

Jeffy25
10-15-2012, 01:34 PM
if you knew you were shutting him down and you were going to have a great chance to make the playoffs, you ease up his place in the rotation (6 -7 days rest or something like that)

or put him in the pen to save his arm to save for the post season. its def a mismanagement of an asset, regardless of if you think its right or not. There were many other ways to handle this than sitting out your best pitcher on a unproven theory that he just might break his arm in the post season. At the end of the day, they just went with a gut feeling.

Or give him an extended spring training, which would have been the right move if they were worried about pitch counts.

Wouldn't you rather have him for Sept/Oct rather than April? A game in Sept is just as valuable as a game in April. But a game in October is immensely more valuable than any regular season game.

Jeffy25
10-15-2012, 01:45 PM
No, first of all it wasn't worth the risk, long term.

Second, he would started in place of Detwiler, who started a game which the Nats won anyway. Edwin Jackson and Zimmerman still would have pitched and Gio would have still pitched games 1 and 5.

Fairly certain Detwiller would have still started, it's Edwin Jackson that would have been knocked out

FIP, ERA
EJ - 3.85, 4.03
RD - 4.04, 3.40

And considering Jackson pitched Game 4, and Detwiller 3, and they were able to set their rotation in anticipation. I think it's pretty clear that Jackson would have been moved to the bullpen for long relief. Which, if necessary, maybe he could have helped out in Game 5 out of the pen and possibly saved the series as well.

It's pretty silly to think that a series that came down to the last strike 3 times, and that team lost the series, wouldn't have been aided by having the games best single game pitcher in their rotation.

And he probably would have started two games, Games 1 and 5. Moving Gio to Game 2, Zimmerman to 3, and either Detwiller or Jackson to 4. And then Detwiller or Jackson would have been moved to the pen, and Gio would have been available out of the pen as well in Game 5.

Hard to think that rotation doesn't pull this series out from the Cards, considering how close it was.

Jeffy25
10-15-2012, 01:55 PM
do you guys know the % of a guy getting an arm injury the year after he increases his innings by more than 20%?.... its practically a given at close to 80%... throw in he is only 2 yrs removed from TJ....


Not true.

The Verducci Effect has been consistently proven false.


Adam Wainwright seems to be doing just fine a year after TJ.

Verducci said Cain, Haren, and Felix Hernandez were destined for arm injuries because of their inning workloads at young ages. This was 6 years ago.

There are guys that get hurt, it obviously happens. And having a drastic increase in your pitch count from year to year is going to wear you down. But injuries for starting pitchers are a part of it. The more you pitch, the more prone you are to getting hurt by the simple fact of the sport. The way the game is played, the fact it is an unnatural motion that you make when you throw a baseball.

It isn't because of an increase in workload, and where you got 80% I have no idea.

Greedy22
10-15-2012, 02:07 PM
Aren't arm injuries caused by bad mechanics? I find Strausburg to have awful mechanics, why Verducci would list those 3 guys just shows how clueless he really is about the subject.

Nomar
10-15-2012, 02:21 PM
Medlen wasnt hyped up like Strasburg and probably wont be this good ever again. There's a difference.

Jeffy25
10-15-2012, 02:45 PM
Medlen wasnt hyped up like Strasburg and probably wont be this good ever again. There's a difference.

The difference is that Medlen was saved in anticipation of the post-season in case they needed/wanted him.

Strasburg was just used right out of the gate, full velocity and they were forced to shut him down due to their perception that he might be more susceptible to long term injuries.

Nomar
10-15-2012, 02:48 PM
The difference is that Medlen was saved in anticipation of the post-season in case they needed/wanted him.

Strasburg was just used right out of the gate, full velocity and they were forced to shut him down due to their perception that he might be more susceptible to long term injuries.

I dont think the Braces saw Medlen as more than a #3 or 4 starter. But the Nationals have proven o be incompetent planners

1903
10-15-2012, 03:35 PM
The plan was just horrible. Use him as much as possible from the start of the season and then shut him down when it becomes crunch time. The Yankees even had a 6 man rotation at one point last season and the Nats could have worked out something so that Strasburg would still be available for the post season.

Mr.SmackYoMama
10-15-2012, 04:25 PM
Well he certainly could have pitched in some of those spots even out of the pen if they really needed him and who knows if he wins game 1 or game 2 that series might have never gone 5 games.

Saying that, the Nationals had their opportunity to win that series, they blew a 6-0 lead in the deciding game.

There is really no excuse for that either way.


A Tribe Calle Quest! What's my prize??? LOL

LakersA's49ers
10-15-2012, 04:27 PM
absolutely the right call. the stats show guys coming off TJS with 200+ the year after is almost like the red ring in XBOX

todu82
10-15-2012, 06:58 PM
I think they may regret it. While it's good to protect him they could have gone to a 6 man rotation or something in August in order to have him there for the playoffs.

Rain City
10-15-2012, 07:18 PM
He increased his innings pitched by 563% from 2011, does that mean his arm will fall off?

so stupid.... you dont think he logged any innings in 2011 before being up in the bigs?

MetsFanatic19
10-15-2012, 07:22 PM
Stupid stupid stupid decision. They definitly would've had a great shot to win it all with him. And it being the first time a D.C team is in the playoffs since when? Why would you want to not win the World Series when you have a great chance?

Jeffy25
10-15-2012, 07:25 PM
absolutely the right call. the stats show guys coming off TJS with 200+ the year after is almost like the red ring in XBOX

The entire Cardinals rotation says 'what's up'

Jake Westbrok, TJ in 09
202 innings in 2010
Injuries since 2010 - oblique in 2012

Adam Wainwright, TJ in 11
198.2 innings in 2012
Injuries since - obviously none yet

Chris Carpenter, TJ in 07/08
192.2 innings in 2009
(followed by back to back seasons over 200 innings)
Injuries since - shoulder, separate from elbow, related to a neck spasm

Jaime Garcia, TJ in 08/09
163.1 IP in 2010
194.2 IP in 2011 (finally fully healthy)
Injuries since - shoulder, torn laburm. Separate from elbow


And just for kicks
Matt Morris, TJ in 99/00 (came back in middle of 2000)
216.1 IP in 2001
Managed to pitch exactly 1400 innings over the next 7 seasons, and he only pitched less because he was no longer effective, not hurt.


Either the Cardinals are the only team that this isn't a problem for, or it's completely false and unproven that it would lead to other long term injuries.


Oh, and the shoulder injuries are completely separate, and is well documented.

metswon69
10-15-2012, 08:17 PM
A Tribe Calle Quest! What's my prize??? LOL

Lol congratulations you've won a box of

Nomar
10-16-2012, 01:52 PM
I would only be afraid of another injury if he had funky mechanics. An athletic guy with a smooth delivery shouldnt essentially live/pitch in fear of another injury.

The Nationals are going to look ******** if he ends up getting hurt early on next season. If he does im going to say "I guess they shouldve limited him to 25 innings this year."

Capital G
10-16-2012, 02:05 PM
the nats played it poorly.

they should have skipped some starts w. that lead. still preserving his arm and having him for the playoffs.

its a shame.

Rain City
10-16-2012, 03:08 PM
The entire Cardinals rotation says 'what's up'

Jake Westbrok, TJ in 09
202 innings in 2010
Injuries since 2010 - oblique in 2012

Adam Wainwright, TJ in 11
198.2 innings in 2012
Injuries since - obviously none yet

Chris Carpenter, TJ in 07/08
192.2 innings in 2009
(followed by back to back seasons over 200 innings)
Injuries since - shoulder, separate from elbow, related to a neck spasm

Jaime Garcia, TJ in 08/09
163.1 IP in 2010
194.2 IP in 2011 (finally fully healthy)
Injuries since - shoulder, torn laburm. Separate from elbow


And just for kicks
Matt Morris, TJ in 99/00 (came back in middle of 2000)
216.1 IP in 2001
Managed to pitch exactly 1400 innings over the next 7 seasons, and he only pitched less because he was no longer effective, not hurt.


Either the Cardinals are the only team that this isn't a problem for, or it's completely false and unproven that it would lead to other long term injuries.


Oh, and the shoulder injuries are completely separate, and is well documented.

all these guys were much different scenarios than stras starting with being a once in a lifetime prospect who is being asked to pitch 200 innings for the first time when last year he was only able to rehab in time for 5 MLB starts.

staggering starts is not recommended either, 90+% pitchers are religious with their throwing program and when you stray it can affect command, velocity and greater chance of dead arm.

no way you can monitor a SP in the playoffs. NO WAY. each roster spot is too valuable. think nats coulda pulled stras in the 6th of a 1-1 game? NO WAY. think stras is going to say anything if he feels something?, very dangerous road.

Also, deeper in the season, especially playoffs, temp drops 30 degreez...may seem like a minor point but you add it to the equation.

nats deserve the criticism for being overly caution for a team with WS hopes, but there is alot of logic to their plan with strasburg, and i respect a team that sticks to their guns in the face of a s***storm.

Jeffy25
10-16-2012, 03:56 PM
I still want to know what future injuries they are trying to avoid by shutting him down?

Elbow issues should be a thing of the past for the most part.

He could have future forearm, leg, or shoulder issues. But shutting him down won't necessarily prevent or lower the probabilities of those things happening in the future

Twitchy
10-16-2012, 03:59 PM
The entire Cardinals rotation says 'what's up'

Jake Westbrok, TJ in 09
202 innings in 2010
Injuries since 2010 - oblique in 2012

Adam Wainwright, TJ in 11
198.2 innings in 2012
Injuries since - obviously none yet

Chris Carpenter, TJ in 07/08
192.2 innings in 2009
(followed by back to back seasons over 200 innings)
Injuries since - shoulder, separate from elbow, related to a neck spasm

Jaime Garcia, TJ in 08/09
163.1 IP in 2010
194.2 IP in 2011 (finally fully healthy)
Injuries since - shoulder, torn laburm. Separate from elbow

And just for kicks
Matt Morris, TJ in 99/00 (came back in middle of 2000)
216.1 IP in 2001
Managed to pitch exactly 1400 innings over the next 7 seasons, and he only pitched less because he was no longer effective, not hurt.


Either the Cardinals are the only team that this isn't a problem for, or it's completely false and unproven that it would lead to other long term injuries.


Oh, and the shoulder injuries are completely separate, and is well documented.

I think you're pretty awesome Jeffy. You know why? Because you just proved the exact point you were arguing against.

For virtually every case you mentioned, the Cardinals starters had pitched a significant number of innings prior to having TJ. I'm pretty sure all of them had a 200 inning season under their belt. Several in some cases. Except for Garcia.

As I'm sure you're aware, Garcia had pitched in the minors for quite some time. However, his career high for innings in the minors was 155. When he arrived in the majors, he only threw 16 or so innings before the 2010 season when he returned from TJ surgery.

You see, Garcia is a perfect example for how to treat a pitcher with little to no experience at the major leagues post Tommy John surgery. Garcia never threw 200 innings at any level, majors or minors. His career high, once again, was 155 innings. So the Cardinals took the cautious approach, and had him throw...163 innings in his first season after Tommy John. And after doing that, he was healthy enough to pitch 194 the following year.

So you're right - the Cardinals do have a good approach to dealing with pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery. And Jaime Garcia, like Zimmermann of the Nats, and now like Strasburg, were all handled in the exact same way. These three pitchers who hadn't thrown significant innings early in their careers were coming off TJ and all ended up throwing approximately 160 innings in their first season back from TJ.

And as you pointed out, so far everybody is healthy after TJ because they followed this approach.

So I'd say the approach the Nats took is pretty much standard operating procedure, and the same one followed by the Cardinals.

Once again - the Nats should have waited until May in order to keep Stras innings down. But they absolutely made the right call going to 160 innings, as you just helped me prove that's the standard way to deal with young pitchers coming off of TJ.

Nomar
10-16-2012, 04:06 PM
I think you're pretty awesome Jeffy. You know why? Because you just proved the exact point you were arguing against.

For virtually every case you mentioned, the Cardinals starters had pitched a significant number of innings prior to having TJ. I'm pretty sure all of them had a 200 inning season under their belt. Several in some cases. Except for Garcia.

As I'm sure you're aware, Garcia had pitched in the minors for quite some time. However, his career high for innings in the minors was 155. When he arrived in the majors, he only threw 16 or so innings before the 2010 season when he returned from TJ surgery.

You see, Garcia is a perfect example for how to treat a pitcher with little to no experience at the major leagues post Tommy John surgery. Garcia never threw 200 innings at any level, majors or minors. His career high, once again, was 155 innings. So the Cardinals took the cautious approach, and had him throw...163 innings in his first season after Tommy John. And after doing that, he was healthy enough to pitch 194 the following year.

So you're right - the Cardinals do have a good approach to dealing with pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery. And Jaime Garcia, like Zimmermann of the Nats, and now like Strasburg, were all handled in the exact same way. These three pitchers who hadn't thrown significant innings early in their careers were coming off TJ and all ended up throwing approximately 160 innings in their first season back from TJ.

And as you pointed out, so far everybody is healthy after TJ because they followed this approach.

So I'd say the approach the Nats took is pretty much standard operating procedure, and the same one followed by the Cardinals.

Once again - the Nats should have waited until May in order to keep Stras innings down. But they absolutely made the right call going to 160 innings, as you just helped me prove that's the standard way to deal with young pitchers coming off of TJ.

Westbrook and Carpenter were veterans already when they were hurt.

Sadds The Gr8
10-16-2012, 04:10 PM
it was ****in stupid. it'd be like the Chicago Bulls shutting down Derrick Rose right before the playoffs started, or Miami shutting down DWade...like wtf?

Jeffy25
10-16-2012, 05:19 PM
I think you're pretty awesome Jeffy. You know why? Because you just proved the exact point you were arguing against.

For virtually every case you mentioned, the Cardinals starters had pitched a significant number of innings prior to having TJ. I'm pretty sure all of them had a 200 inning season under their belt. Several in some cases. Except for Garcia.

As I'm sure you're aware, Garcia had pitched in the minors for quite some time. However, his career high for innings in the minors was 155. When he arrived in the majors, he only threw 16 or so innings before the 2010 season when he returned from TJ surgery.

You see, Garcia is a perfect example for how to treat a pitcher with little to no experience at the major leagues post Tommy John surgery. Garcia never threw 200 innings at any level, majors or minors. His career high, once again, was 155 innings. So the Cardinals took the cautious approach, and had him throw...163 innings in his first season after Tommy John. And after doing that, he was healthy enough to pitch 194 the following year.

So you're right - the Cardinals do have a good approach to dealing with pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery. And Jaime Garcia, like Zimmermann of the Nats, and now like Strasburg, were all handled in the exact same way. These three pitchers who hadn't thrown significant innings early in their careers were coming off TJ and all ended up throwing approximately 160 innings in their first season back from TJ.

And as you pointed out, so far everybody is healthy after TJ because they followed this approach.

So I'd say the approach the Nats took is pretty much standard operating procedure, and the same one followed by the Cardinals.

Once again - the Nats should have waited until May in order to keep Stras innings down. But they absolutely made the right call going to 160 innings, as you just helped me prove that's the standard way to deal with young pitchers coming off of TJ.

What did I argue against?

The post I responded to was 'the stats show that guys throwing 200 innings after having TJ surgery is like the Xbox Red Ring of Death'

And that is false. Plenty of pitchers do it.

Strasburg is a somewhat unique case in that no one has been extended to their first 200 innings pitch season the year after TJ surgery. There is no case to say it's going to increase or be an automatic for future injuries. We don't know for certain if shutting him down at 160 or so innings will help him or not because we don't have any data of a pitcher doing this.




I have said the whole time they should have had him throw an extended Spring Training and had his season start in May.

They also could have cautiously moved forward with him, closely monitoring his release point, look for signs of fatigue, and make sure no tearing or wearing was happening. They could have even spread out his starts.

I still think what the Braves did with Medlen was better than what the Nationals did with Strasburg. And I don't even know if that was the right move all the way, but it was certainly better in terms of a potential playoff team.