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natsbats
10-08-2012, 05:39 PM
If WAR is such a great tool, How do you explain this:

Baltimore - 25th in WAR, 15.3...93 wins

Brewers - 2nd in WAR, not even close to making playoffs.

Padres - 10th in WAR, ten games below .500

Angels - 1st in WAR by a decent amount, missed playoffs.

Jeffy25
10-08-2012, 05:54 PM
WAR isn't a team stat.

Easy.

It's only for individuals



And you are only looking at WAR from the offensive side, and didn't even bring up pitching


also, don't use fWAR for results, use rWAR (baseball-reference) if you want to find accuracies.

Jeffy25
10-08-2012, 06:00 PM
For instance

rWAR pitching leaders in order

1. Cin
2. Tex
3. Det
4. Oak
5. TBR

Offensively
1. LAA
2. SFG
3. STL
4. NYY
5. MIL

Combined?
While LAA had a 37.7 rWAR offensively, they only had a 2.6 rWAR pitching
so a little more than a 40 rWAR


Also, teams don't end up in the standings exactly like the runs they create and allowed.

For example, the Cardinals went 88-74, but their pyth record was 93-69

You will notice that rWAR in combined numbers basically go in pyth record order.

natepro
10-09-2012, 12:21 AM
If WAR is such a great tool, How do you explain this:

Baltimore - 25th in WAR, 15.3...93 wins

Brewers - 2nd in WAR, not even close to making playoffs.

Padres - 10th in WAR, ten games below .500

Angels - 1st in WAR by a decent amount, missed playoffs.

Take a look at what the Angels' bullpen did all season, and what the Angels' starters did in August as they were climbing back into contention, and you'll understand.

popo85
10-09-2012, 12:21 AM
The bullpen collapsed in the 2nd half and 1st bad month that's why they didn't make the playoffs. Also since you bring up WAR the Angels had the best record in the west after Trout's call up.

WrightStuff82
10-09-2012, 12:57 AM
Well way to help the guy understand. Your input is so valuable.

When anti-WAR people are irrational and closed-minded, it's pointless to try to educate them.

They have no interest in conforming.

albo23
10-09-2012, 01:16 AM
When anti-WAR people are irrational and closed-minded, it's pointless to try to educate them.

They have no interest in conforming.
I do not see any posts confirming irrationality or closed-mindedness from him in this topic. All he did as pose a question, offer some statistics and requested an explanation.

Either attempt to educate him, or if you think he's a troll, ignore him.

giants73756
10-09-2012, 05:21 AM
And you are only looking at WAR from the offensive side, and didn't even bring up pitching

:laugh:

Halladay
10-09-2012, 05:57 AM
If you're going to start an argument like this please, for the love of god, at least present, and understand, the facts about the statistic.

salukisam
10-09-2012, 10:50 AM
WAR isn't a team stat.

Easy.

It's only for individuals



And you are only looking at WAR from the offensive side, and didn't even bring up pitching


also, don't use fWAR for results, use rWAR (baseball-reference) if you want to find accuracies.


Wins are a team stat

ReJo
10-09-2012, 11:25 AM
^
Exactly
The only team stat that matters is wins and losses

sexicano31
10-09-2012, 11:33 AM
Wins are a team stat

wut

Jeffy25
10-09-2012, 04:35 PM
Wins are a team stat

And WAR isn't calculated for a team, it's calculated for the individual

It's just using the value of the runs created by the player

-Lavigne43-
10-09-2012, 07:05 PM
Out of curiosity I added the team totals for position player fWAR and pitching fWAR just to see how it lined up when compared to run differential.

AL East
Yankees: 51.3 fWAR | +136
Rays: 45.6 fWAR | +120
Red Sox: 34.5 fWAR | -72
Blue Jays: 33.4 fWAR | -68
Orioles: 31.9 fWAR | +7

AL Central
Tigers: 46 fWAR | +56
White Sox: 37.2 fWAR | +72
Royals: 32.4 fWAR | -70
Twins: 28.2 fWAR | -131
Indians: 19.8 fWAR | -178

AL West
Rangers: 50.5 fWAR | + 101
Angels: 47.5 fWAR | +68
Athletics: 41.9 fWAR | +99
Mariners: 27 fWAR | -32

NL East
Nationals: 51.3 fWAR | +137
Braves: 48.9 fWAR | +100
Phillies: 44 fWAR | +4
Mets: 33.1 fWAR | -59
Marlins: 31.8 fWAR | -115

NL Central
Cardinals: 53.7 fWAR | +117
Brewers: 51.5 fWAR | +43
Reds: 48.2 fWAR | +81
Pirates: 33.8 fWAR | -23
Cubs: 22.4 fWAR | -146
Astros: 18.7 fWAR | -211

NL West
D'backs: 49 fWAR | +46
Giants: 46 fWAR | +69
Dodgers: 38.3 fWAR | +40
Padres: 32.6 fWAR | -59
Rockies: 31.2 fWAR | -132

The biggest gripe will probably be the Orioles. Many have argued that fWAR undervalues relievers, the Orioles would serve as a point for this. Same with the Angels and Brewers who had bullpen issues. I don't know much of what happened with the D'backs. Pitching fWAR can also be more predictive since FIP is a major component. Pitching rWAR would probably give a more accurate list for results. The list is not perfect but it's better than any list based off one stat (minus rWAR of course).

iam brett favre
10-09-2012, 07:23 PM
There's really no need to bother explaining it. Far too much stock is put into WAR as it is.

Farsight
10-09-2012, 07:27 PM
Out of curiosity I added the team totals for position player fWAR and pitching fWAR just to see how it lined up when compared to run differential.

AL East
Yankees: 51.3 fWAR | +136
Rays: 45.6 fWAR | +120
Red Sox: 34.5 fWAR | -72
Blue Jays: 33.4 fWAR | -68
Orioles: 31.9 fWAR | +7

AL Central
Tigers: 46 fWAR | +56
White Sox: 37.2 fWAR | +72
Royals: 32.4 fWAR | -70
Twins: 28.2 fWAR | -131
Indians: 19.8 fWAR | -178

AL West
Rangers: 50.5 fWAR | + 101
Angels: 47.5 fWAR | +68
Athletics: 41.9 fWAR | +99
Mariners: 27 fWAR | -32

NL East
Nationals: 51.3 fWAR | +137
Braves: 48.9 fWAR | +100
Phillies: 44 fWAR | +4
Mets: 33.1 fWAR | -59
Marlins: 31.8 fWAR | -115

NL Central
Cardinals: 53.7 fWAR | +117
Brewers: 51.5 fWAR | +43
Reds: 48.2 fWAR | +81
Pirates: 33.8 fWAR | -23
Cubs: 22.4 fWAR | -146
Astros: 18.7 fWAR | -211

NL West
D'backs: 49 fWAR | +46
Giants: 46 fWAR | +69
Dodgers: 38.3 fWAR | +40
Padres: 32.6 fWAR | -59
Rockies: 31.2 fWAR | -132

The biggest gripe will probably be the Orioles. Many have argued that fWAR undervalues relievers, the Orioles would serve as a point for this. Same with the Angels and Brewers who had bullpen issues. I don't know much of what happened with the D'backs. Pitching fWAR can also be more predictive since FIP is a major component. Pitching rWAR would probably give a more accurate list for results. The list is not perfect but it's better than any list based off one stat (minus rWAR of course). The season Baltimore had is unique, and i believe you are right when you point out that fWAR undervalues relief pitching. However, if you were to ask most writers from baseball references, or fangraphs... More than likely, most would say that it would be really hard for Baltimore to replicate this season next year. Thats to take nothing away from them, their bullpen was amazing, but as many know, bullpens in general are bi-polar and are hard to predict because of the relative small sample size year to year. I think Baltimore for the most part is an outlier.

Jeffy25
10-09-2012, 07:41 PM
Out of curiosity I added the team totals for position player fWAR and pitching fWAR just to see how it lined up when compared to run differential.

AL East
Yankees: 51.3 fWAR | +136
Rays: 45.6 fWAR | +120
Red Sox: 34.5 fWAR | -72
Blue Jays: 33.4 fWAR | -68
Orioles: 31.9 fWAR | +7

AL Central
Tigers: 46 fWAR | +56
White Sox: 37.2 fWAR | +72
Royals: 32.4 fWAR | -70
Twins: 28.2 fWAR | -131
Indians: 19.8 fWAR | -178

AL West
Rangers: 50.5 fWAR | + 101
Angels: 47.5 fWAR | +68
Athletics: 41.9 fWAR | +99
Mariners: 27 fWAR | -32

NL East
Nationals: 51.3 fWAR | +137
Braves: 48.9 fWAR | +100
Phillies: 44 fWAR | +4
Mets: 33.1 fWAR | -59
Marlins: 31.8 fWAR | -115

NL Central
Cardinals: 53.7 fWAR | +117
Brewers: 51.5 fWAR | +43
Reds: 48.2 fWAR | +81
Pirates: 33.8 fWAR | -23
Cubs: 22.4 fWAR | -146
Astros: 18.7 fWAR | -211

NL West
D'backs: 49 fWAR | +46
Giants: 46 fWAR | +69
Dodgers: 38.3 fWAR | +40
Padres: 32.6 fWAR | -59
Rockies: 31.2 fWAR | -132

The biggest gripe will probably be the Orioles. Many have argued that fWAR undervalues relievers, the Orioles would serve as a point for this. Same with the Angels and Brewers who had bullpen issues. I don't know much of what happened with the D'backs. Pitching fWAR can also be more predictive since FIP is a major component. Pitching rWAR would probably give a more accurate list for results. The list is not perfect but it's better than any list based off one stat (minus rWAR of course).

Nationals: +137
Yankees: +136
Rays: +120
Cardinals: +117
Rangers: + 101
Braves: +100
Athletics: +99
Reds: +81
White Sox: +72
Giants: +69
Angels: +68
Tigers: +56
D'backs: +46
Brewers: +43
Dodgers: +40
Orioles: +7
Phillies: +4
Pirates: -23
Mariners: -32
Padres: -59
Mets: -59
Blue Jays: -68
Royals: -70
Red Sox: -72
Marlins: -115
Twins: -131
Rockies: -132
Cubs: -146
Indians: -178
Astros: -211



And WAR, ranked by run differential
Nationals - 20.7 + 20.2= 40.9
Yankees - 27.2 + 20.7= 47.9
Rays - 18.6 + 22.5= 41.1
cards - 27.7 + 11.5= 39.2
rangers - 18.6 + 23.4= 42.0
braves - 23.2 + 11.7= 34.9
a' - 19.4 + 23.0= 42.4
reds - 14.3 + 26.4= 40.7
white sox - 16.0 + 21.8= 37.8
Giants - 28.8 + 5.5= 34.3
angels - 37.9 + 2.6= 40.5
tigers - 13.7 + 23.2= 36.9
d'backs - 17.7 + 13.3= 31.0
brewers - 23.4 + 6.0= 29.4
dodgers - 12.4 + 19.4= 31.8
O's - 11.4 + 21.7= 33.1
phillies - 15.0 + 10.8= 25.8
pirates - 15.2 + 5.8= 21.0
mariners - 14.2 + 13.6= 27.8
padres - 19.9 + 2.5= 22.4
mets - 10.5 + 9.4= 19.9
blue jays - 17.8 + 5.0= 22.8
royals - 15.1 + 9.6= 24.7
red sox - 17.7 + 1.2= 18.9
marlins - 4.2 + 11.1= 15.3
twins - 22.1 + -3.3= 18.8
rockies - 5.9 + 15.5= 21.4
cubs - 11.8 + -0.1= 11.7
indians - 14.9 + -1.5= 13.4
astros - 2.1 + 5.4= 7.5


This shows the O's more in line with where their run differential belongs.

A few teams jump up to 3 spots, but no more than that, and some of the teams have identical run differentials, so ranking one above the other could appears misleading.

Jeffy25
10-09-2012, 08:03 PM
Sorry, I accidentally deleted the top of my above post

Baseball-Reference WAR was used


I would argue that for relievers, instead of using fWAR, you should use WPA


And I really hate fWAR for results, since it doesn't value run prevention.


Doing the same for rWAR

-Lavigne43-
10-09-2012, 09:33 PM
That list looks pretty good, definitely correlates better. The Astros 7.5 is ridiculous.

Pinstripe pride
10-10-2012, 08:56 AM
i explain it with song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX7V6FAoTLc