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View Full Version : Projecting Bryce Harper 2013



oaklandas19
09-29-2012, 12:46 PM
How do you think Harper will do in 2013?

EDIT: so far the results are... .270-.290 AVG. 25-30 HRs. .360-.380 OBP

Machinehead
09-29-2012, 12:57 PM
He'll be pretty solid

sexicano31
09-29-2012, 12:58 PM
100000 rbi

Il Mago50
09-29-2012, 01:03 PM
.315, 40, 110, 30 sb, nl mvp

Fly
09-29-2012, 01:05 PM
.300/.375 with 25 long balls.

canefandynasty
09-29-2012, 01:13 PM
635+ PA | 5.50+ fWAR/600 PA | 5.00+ rWAR/600 PA

2013 TROUT: 650+ PA | 8.10+ fWAR/600 PA | 7.50+ rWAR/600 PA
2013 STANTON: 550+ PA | 7.50+ fWAR/600 PA | 7.00+ rWAR/600 PA

Fly
09-29-2012, 01:14 PM
635+ PA | 5.50+ fWAR/600 PA | 5.00+ rWAR/600 PA

Are you ever gonna post in a format besides this?

canefandynasty
09-29-2012, 01:16 PM
Are you ever gonna post in a format besides this?

I'm a SABR stat geek.

rocket
09-29-2012, 01:22 PM
.315, 40, 110, 30 sb, nl mvp

no.

hell no

infernoscurse
09-29-2012, 01:30 PM
he will be mike trout lite

mike_noodles
09-29-2012, 01:41 PM
I think he will make Trout's #'s look mediocre.

Bean
09-29-2012, 01:46 PM
Triple crown, leads the MLB in stolen bases, cures cancer.

CarniifeX
09-29-2012, 01:46 PM
I think he will make Trout's #'s look mediocre.

Trout's numbers are historic. He's only 1 HR and 3 SB away from 30/50, a stat of which only two other players -- Eric Davis and Barry Bonds -- have ever accomplished.

Fly
09-29-2012, 02:18 PM
I'm a SABR stat geek.

There are more SABR stats than just WAR, though..

thrice4
09-29-2012, 02:20 PM
no.

hell no

Look like Brauny's numbers.

canefandynasty
09-29-2012, 02:21 PM
There are more SABR stats than just WAR, though..

WAR is the most important though, for obvious reasons. If I wanted to just compare certain aspects of their game, like hitting, then I won't use WAR.

Guppyfighter
09-29-2012, 02:23 PM
WAR is the most important though, for obvious reasons. If I wanted to just compare certain aspects of their game, like hitting, then I won't use WAR.

WAR is not the most important because it's accumulative. It doesn't tell you who is better if players have missed games.

canefandynasty
09-29-2012, 02:35 PM
WAR is not the most important because it's accumulative. It doesn't tell you who is better if players have missed games.
The WAR I use is a rate stat. It is in all my posts (fWAR/600 PA & rWAR/600 PA).

Rush
09-29-2012, 02:56 PM
.315, 40, 110, 30 sb, nl mvp

Joke?

Guppyfighter
09-29-2012, 03:06 PM
The WAR I use is a rate stat. It is in all my posts (fWAR/600 PA & rWAR/600 PA).

That's fair.

LoveMeOrHateMe
09-29-2012, 03:29 PM
.315, 40, 110, 30 sb, nl mvp

lol

Fly
09-29-2012, 04:13 PM
WAR is the most important though, for obvious reasons. If I wanted to just compare certain aspects of their game, like hitting, then I won't use WAR.

So you base all of your evaluation of a player on one statistic?

MetsFanatic19
09-29-2012, 04:14 PM
.300/.375/35 hr.

Toxeryll
09-29-2012, 05:04 PM
he'll have a career ending injury in spring training

Nomar
09-29-2012, 05:46 PM
100000 rbi

idk that sounds like a stretch

Nomar
09-29-2012, 05:48 PM
Lmao ^ messed up

Trouts numbers are definitely helped by his BABIP. I wouldnt be surprised if Harper has a better season that Trout next year, even though Trouts speed wont go anywhere.

canefandynasty
09-29-2012, 06:04 PM
So you base all of your evaluation of a player on one statistic?

Name another value stat that is nearly as detailed as WAR. VORP and WARP (baseballprospectus.com) are the only stats I can think of, and they don't really account for defense, just position.

As I mentioned earlier, it depends on how I am comparing the players. If I was just comparing offensive values strictly, then I would include multiple offensive stats like OPS+, wRC+, SB, wOBA, etc. If I'm comparing overall value, fWAR/600 PA & rWAR/600 PA would be most suitable.

Fly
09-29-2012, 06:11 PM
Name another value stat that is nearly as detailed as WAR. VORP and WARP (baseballprospectus.com) are the only stats I can think of, and they don't really account for defense, just position.

As I mentioned earlier, it depends on how I am comparing the players. If I was just comparing offensive values strictly, then I would include multiple offensive stats like OPS+, wRC+, SB, wOBA, etc. If I'm comparing overall value, fWAR/600 PA & rWAR/600 PA would be most suitable.

WAR has its flaws, just like every other stat. If you're going to evaluate players, it might not be as easy but it's better to include a variety of statistics.

canefandynasty
09-29-2012, 06:19 PM
WAR has its flaws, just like every other stat. If you're going to evaluate players, it might not be as easy but it's better to include a variety of statistics.

How?

sexicano31
09-29-2012, 06:20 PM
How?

By....looking at them?

FlakeyFool
09-29-2012, 09:56 PM
How?

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/250x250/27560060.jpg

ciaban
09-29-2012, 10:51 PM
i think he will hit about .280-.290 his OBP will be about 70 points above the average, with 35 plus home runs and 25+ stolen bases.

Farsight
09-29-2012, 11:16 PM
How?I like WAR, but you have to remember that it includes UZR, which by all means is the best defensive stat we have, but is really flawed as it takes about 3 years of defensive data to be equivalent to that to one year of at bats. Moreover, most would argue that UZR is sometimes to heavily calculated into WAR. The scale/value system of UZR is really misleading and can truly misrepresent a players value. Look at Franlkin Gutierrez 2009 season, he was amazing defensively and had an above average offensive season, but his 30 UZR made his a 6+ WAR player (i think the scale should range from -10+10, but thats my opinion)

Offensively, the two best stats you can look at when judging a player is wOBA and wRC+. When looking at a player defensively, as stated before, its best to look at it in 3 year sample

Hunter48MVP
09-29-2012, 11:49 PM
Harper will have good season next year but not like Mike Trout

Harper: .287/.369/.492 22HR/91RBI/30SB

Mike Trout: .339/.410/.698 40HR/115RBI/42SB

sexicano31
09-29-2012, 11:53 PM
Harper will have good season next year but not like Mike Trout

Harper: .287/.369/.492 22HR/91RBI/30SB

Mike Trout: .339/.410/.698 40HR/115RBI/42SB

lol

long ball
09-30-2012, 01:20 AM
I think he'll be awesome.

ciaban
09-30-2012, 01:53 AM
lol

your not laughing at the 40 hr are you? Because he has hit 30 this year and missed the first month and a half. I don't see why it's so impossible.

Nomar
09-30-2012, 10:26 AM
I dont see him hitting 35+ HRs, thats a serious power jump for one year.

yankkiller
09-30-2012, 10:44 AM
i believe the nats should keep him where he is at in the lineup so he can perform as an overall great player table setter with that said this is what i see as he can do

.286 AVG .345 OBP 32 HR 92 RBI 126 Runs 46 SB Gold Glove winner most OF assists and possibility of an MVP

canefandynasty
09-30-2012, 10:47 AM
Will he be better than Heyward next season?

Fly
09-30-2012, 12:59 PM
lol

I was loling at the .698 SLG%

Il Mago50
09-30-2012, 03:47 PM
Look like Brauny's numbers.

Exactly my point. He will have a Ryan Braun season.

NL MVP next year, mark my words.

Il Mago50
09-30-2012, 03:51 PM
I dont see him hitting 35+ HRs, thats a serious power jump for one year.

From 22 HRs...have you seen this kid hit before?

I wouldn't be surprised with 35-40 HRs next year, he's going to win that MVP unless he gets hurt.

Yahweh962
09-30-2012, 03:55 PM
If he makes it to next year I see a .270/.330/.450 slash line along with 18-22 home runs and 70-75 runs batted in. Sprinkle in about 15 steals and I'd say that is fairly accurate.

Fly
09-30-2012, 04:14 PM
If he makes it to next year I see a .270/.330/.450 slash line along with 18-22 home runs and 70-75 runs batted in. Sprinkle in about 15 steals and I'd say that is fairly accurate.

"If he makes it to next year"

is that a threat?

Yahweh962
09-30-2012, 04:20 PM
"If he makes it to next year"

is that a threat?

Nah. Just the fact that the guy is a cocaine addiction and car wreck waiting to happen.

Jeffy25
09-30-2012, 04:49 PM
I think he is going to be an absolute beast and break out.....if he doesn't get hurt first (he plays so damn hard)

Jeffy25
09-30-2012, 04:52 PM
Nah. Just the fact that the guy is a cocaine addiction and car wreck waiting to happen.

what?

Jeffy25
09-30-2012, 04:58 PM
From 22 HRs...have you seen this kid hit before?

I wouldn't be surprised with 35-40 HRs next year, he's going to win that MVP unless he gets hurt.

Kid, at the age of 19 has hit now 22 home runs.

He will continue to develop and hit more and more home runs.

The only other teenager to ever hit 20+ home runs in a season was Tony Conigliaro who hit 24 in 64, the next year, in only 138 games he hit 32, and he was never projected to be a big power hitter like Harper was (he wasn't as big as Harper, 30 pounds lighter at the same age).


Harper has always been projected to be a future 40 home run hitter in the big leagues, and there isn't any reason he won't be better next year. Not to mention, the additional 20 games.