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chi-townlove1
09-17-2012, 04:45 PM
Will someone please explain to me the meaning of all those statistical words like war. etc. I have never completely understood the meaning of those terms and their significance to the game. I see people on psd arguing the better players. Some use hrs, avg, and rbis....others use war and win shares etc. Whats these suffixes true meanings and their significance to a players statistical records.

sexicano31
09-17-2012, 04:49 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/

Have at it

infernoscurse
09-17-2012, 07:28 PM
War is an organized, armed, and, often, a prolonged conflict that is carried on between states, nations, or other parties typified by extreme aggression

Cheezombie
09-17-2012, 07:30 PM
WAR = Wins Above Replacement. Replacement level = Average AAA player

kmo429
09-17-2012, 08:05 PM
All the advanced stats do is take legitimate statistics and put them into theoretical formulas that try to give you an accurate summary of either a player's overall game or just a portion of it. WAR and UZR and the like are solid statistics but all they do is make things relative, when real factual stats make things exact.

People should probably give more credit to the guy who gets on base 36% of the time and drives in 100 runs than the guy who has a high "Wins above replacement", but liek I said, WAR and other Sabermetric type stats work well in adding to an argument, but if theyre the basis, its not too credible.

2009mvp
09-17-2012, 08:18 PM
What the hell is a theoretical formula? A lot of these generalizations apply to UZR and UZR alone, and anyone who knows anything about anything will happily acknowledge the shortcomings of that one particular stat (and its role in fWAR).

7chuck7
09-17-2012, 08:48 PM
Will someone please explain to me the meaning of all those statistical words like war. etc. I have never completely understood the meaning of those terms and their significance to the game. I see people on psd arguing the better players. Some use hrs, avg, and rbis....others use war and win shares etc. Whats these suffixes true meanings and their significance to a players statistical records.

They are basically idiotic, meaningless statistics that people like to spout because it makes them feel intelligent at work, at home and forums like this.
The stats are garbage but people will defend them and ridicule those, like me and many others who know how useless they are. They would never admit to it because that would show they are not as smart as they want people to think they are.

Don't waste you time with those stats.

Jeffy25
09-17-2012, 08:49 PM
They are basically idiotic, meaningless statistics that people like to spout because it makes them feel intelligent at work, at home and forums like this.
The stats are garbage but people will defend them and ridicule those, like me and many others who know how useless they are. They would never admit to it because that would show they are not as smart as they want people to think they are.

Don't waste you time with those stats.

Would you like to explain how WAR is useless?

Because if your only defense is that they are stupid, that isn't exactly an argument

raidersrock99
09-17-2012, 08:53 PM
this thread has jeffy written all over it haha

1903
09-17-2012, 08:54 PM
WAR = Weenies Are Roasting

sexicano31
09-17-2012, 08:55 PM
They are basically idiotic, meaningless statistics that people like to spout because it makes them feel intelligent at work, at home and forums like this.
The stats are garbage but people will defend them and ridicule those, like me and many others who know how useless they are. They would never admit to it because that would show they are not as smart as they want people to think they are.

Don't waste you time with those stats.

Because wins and RBI are good ways to judge players, right? I mean, Ryan Howard has 46 RBI and would be on pace for 120 RBI this season if he played all the games. Hes doing awesome, right?

1903
09-17-2012, 09:06 PM
Because wins and RBI are good ways to judge players, right? I mean, Ryan Howard has 46 RBI and would be on pace for 120 RBI this season if he played all the games. Hes doing awesome, right?

Don't waste your time. Chuck boy has set a record for having threads closed in the Yankees forum.

7chuck7
09-17-2012, 09:08 PM
Will someone please explain to me the meaning of all those statistical words like war. etc. I have never completely understood the meaning of those terms and their significance to the game. I see people on psd arguing the better players. Some use hrs, avg, and rbis....others use war and win shares etc. Whats these suffixes true meanings and their significance to a players statistical records.

This youtube link will give you the best understanding.

http://youtu.be/r-bA9FYB8HY

7chuck7
09-17-2012, 09:10 PM
Don't waste your time. Chuck boy has set a record for having threads closed in the Yankees forum.

Nice to see you out trolling and starting trouble..... your favorite hobby. Do you ever actually talk about baseball? I doubt it.

"Ace"ves
09-17-2012, 09:11 PM
WAR = Wins Above Replacement. Replacement level = Average AAA player

Something that in my opinion, cannot be measured as accurately as most suspect.

7chuck7
09-17-2012, 09:12 PM
Because wins and RBI are good ways to judge players, right? I mean, Ryan Howard has 46 RBI and would be on pace for 120 RBI this season if he played all the games. Hes doing awesome, right?

Show me the thread where I said wins and RBI are good ways to judge players.
I am waitng.

otatop
09-17-2012, 09:15 PM
Nice to see you out trolling
Pot meet kettle?

sexicano31
09-17-2012, 09:17 PM
Show me the thread where I said wins and RBI are good ways to judge players.
I am waitng.

Never said you made a thread. Show me where I said you made a thread
I am waiting.

ATL#22
09-17-2012, 09:26 PM
Something that in my opinion, cannot be measured as accurately as most suspect.

That might be true but if every ML player is based on that same criteria it doesn't really matter

Pfeifer
09-17-2012, 09:42 PM
So if it is wins above replacement than if there is a really bad player in 'AAA' does it help your WAR?

sexicano31
09-17-2012, 09:44 PM
So if it is wins above replacement than if there is a really bad player in 'AAA' does it help your WAR?

No. The way WAR is calculated is constant and has nothing to do with a single minor league player

Jeffy25
09-17-2012, 09:44 PM
So if it is wins above replacement than if there is a really bad player in 'AAA' does it help your WAR?

It is based on the league average for the entire league (MLB not AAA), it isn't based on any individual players (the replacement level context)


The AAA level starter reference made earlier is simply the level a 0.0 WAR player is likely worth.

WAR's base-line numbers are all based on the MLB league average, which while it does vary each year, it is mostly constant.

7chuck7
09-17-2012, 10:06 PM
Never said you made a thread. Show me where I said you made a thread
I am waiting.

You are weak at trying to look witty. Never said 'made a thread'
Said show me the thread where I said it no matter who started the thread. You got caught making a statement about me that I never said and you can't accept looking bad.

Show me the thread, or reply or anywhere where I said 'wins and RBI are a good way to judge a player'

Poor attempt at squirming out of being wrong.

sexicano31
09-17-2012, 10:10 PM
You are weak at trying to look witty. Never said 'made a thread'
Said show me the thread where I said it no matter who started the thread. You got caught making a statement about me that I never said and you can't accept looking bad.

Show me the thread, or reply or anywhere where I said 'wins and RBI are a good way to judge a player'

Poor attempt at squirming out of being wrong.

You dont like advanced statistics. That leaves RBI, wins, batting average. TADAAAAAAAAA

Rush
09-17-2012, 10:42 PM
They are basically idiotic, meaningless statistics that people like to spout because it makes them feel intelligent at work, at home and forums like this.
The stats are garbage but people will defend them and ridicule those, like me and many others who know how useless they are. They would never admit to it because that would show they are not as smart as they want people to think they are.

Don't waste you time with those stats.

What's wrong with evolving and finding better ways to judge players? Must we only use BA, HR, RBI, ERA, BAA, Fielding %, etc. to judge players nowadays?

SuperiorState
09-17-2012, 11:40 PM
I feel some people rely way too much on stats like WAR and discredit way too much on stats like RBI's. Not saying WAR is bad or that RBI's are the end all be all of stats but I think a good balance of both can help gauge how a player rates among others.

sexicano31
09-17-2012, 11:47 PM
I feel some people rely way too much on stats like WAR and discredit way too much on stats like RBI's. Not saying WAR is bad or that RBI's are the end all be all of stats but I think a good balance of both can help gauge how a player rates among others.

Except RBI tell you absolutely nothing about a batter

Rush
09-17-2012, 11:56 PM
I feel some people rely way too much on stats like WAR and discredit way too much on stats like RBI's. Not saying WAR is bad or that RBI's are the end all be all of stats but I think a good balance of both can help gauge how a player rates among others.

RBI is totally dependent on the players in front of the batter. Players on better teams benefit from more runners on base than hitters on poor hitting teams that don't have many runners on base. It's doesn't really give you a good gauge on a player.

SuperiorState
09-18-2012, 12:36 AM
Well yes and no.

Are RBI's a good gauge of a player? probably not.

But even if the ducks get on the pond you still have to drive them in.

so to call them completely useless is just false.

sexicano31
09-18-2012, 01:00 AM
Well yes and no.

Are RBI's a good gauge of a player? probably not.

But even if the ducks get on the pond you still have to drive them in.

so to call them completely useless is just false.
No, they are useless. If you want to see a players ability to drive runners in look at they're % of runners batted in. I believe one year Howard and Votto both had around 20% but Howard had about 40 more RBI because he had more guys on base.

For his first 5 years in the bigs Ryan Howard had by far the most runners on base. Hell, he would be on pace for 120 RBI this year if he played the entire season. Think of that and go look at how hes doing this year. Useless

Pfeifer
09-18-2012, 01:02 AM
So WAR is essentially a +\- player rating based upon statistical data conceived of a particular formula. My only concern is that there is no way to rate ones effect on his teammates in practice and as a general mentor, or what kind of negative effect he will have on the team at a personal level. It's cliche to talk about team chemistry but usually tight teams play harder.

sexicano31
09-18-2012, 01:05 AM
Is there any empirical evidence to back that up? The stuff you mentioned doesnt really effect ones performance

Nomar
09-18-2012, 01:09 AM
War is an organized, armed, and, often, a prolonged conflict that is carried on between states, nations, or other parties typified by extreme aggression

lmao winner

Pfeifer
09-18-2012, 01:35 AM
Is there any empirical evidence to back that up? The stuff you mentioned doesnt really effect ones performance

There is no way to measure it really, and just my opinion from playing many different sports, if you like eachother you play better because you are happier, just like your job in life. If you enjoy it you work better and more efficient. Also better players are usually more willing to teach younger players if they like them which can be huge for player development depending on the organization of course. An example would be Roy Halladay in Toronto. Not only was he, in my opinion, the best pitcher in baseball, but he effected so many players in ways unmeasurable by advanced stats. I'm not saying this is a huge part of player evaluation but it is an aspect missed by alot of people. That said WAR seems to be a very logical way of evaluation. Even though I don't really understand it yet, pretty much everything in baseball can be measured on field.

WadeKobe
09-18-2012, 02:20 AM
Something that in my opinion, cannot be measured as accurately as most suspect.

Whether that's true or not, it's immaterial to both the purpose and the formulation of WAR.

Everything is based upon the league-average production, adjusted to the player's particular position. From there, average cannot be the baseline, because an average player in the MLB is valuable. Therefore, there needs to be a baseline upon which to measure players which reflects the value of an average player. This is where the "replacement level" comes in. All that really is needed is a baseline which is constant for all players and reflects their playing time/Plate apperances.

Yankees90.
09-18-2012, 05:06 AM
I prefer the more traditional stats, in some cases....minus Wins for a pitcher.

Wins are about as meaningful to a pitcher as Post Counts are to a PSD poster.

Some use the traditional, others advanced metrics. Metrics never really change my mind on how good or bad I think a player is. It replaces imperfect stats with other imperfect stats, and makes some players that blow look slightly better.

In regards to WAR, I see why some people use it, and understand it, but at the same time you still can't say what a AAA player coming to the majors is going to do.

Pinstripe pride
09-18-2012, 08:32 AM
war is a made up stat to make inferior players look better

bagwell368
09-18-2012, 10:27 AM
What's wrong with evolving and finding better ways to judge players? Must we only use BA, HR, RBI, ERA, BAA, Fielding %, etc. to judge players nowadays?

Nothing. But some folks are lazy and don't want to have to spend time seeing things in new ways. This usually extends beyond baseball.

A beat up junk 1962 Caddy's "parked" in the side yard comes to mind.

7chuck7
09-18-2012, 11:16 AM
Is there any empirical evidence to back that up? The stuff you mentioned doesnt really effect ones performance

"empirical evidence"

lmao

sexicano31
09-18-2012, 11:33 AM
"empirical evidence"

lmao

And whats funny about that? I mean, do you have arguments? So far you've put nothing to support yourself.

But hey, if trolling is working for you then keep going

bagwell368
09-18-2012, 12:06 PM
"empirical evidence"

lmao

Heurisitcs is actually closer to the mark IMO.

Edited from wiki:

Heuristics may be used in conjunction with optimization algorithms to improve their efficiency (e.g., they may be used to generate good seed values).

Results about NP-hardness in theoretical computer science make heuristics the only viable option for a variety of complex optimization problems that need to be routinely solved in real-world applications.



Basically it means you start with an approximate idea, and by sifting huge amounts of data, and refining the model you end up with a result and a method to gain results which is the best available in the now.

wOBA=\frac{(0.72*NIBB) + (0.75*HBP) + (0.90*\mathit{1}B) + (0.92*RBOE) + (1.24*\mathit{2}B) + (1.56*\mathit{3}B) + (1.95*HR)}{PA}

wOBA is a closer answer to truth than other available methods in this space. Just because some fail to acknowledge that, or have no means available to understand the math it does not render this equation false.

TheIlladelph16
09-18-2012, 12:21 PM
War is an organized, armed, and, often, a prolonged conflict that is carried on between states, nations, or other parties typified by extreme aggression

:clap:

7chuck7
09-18-2012, 12:22 PM
Heurisitcs is actually closer to the mark IMO.

Edited from wiki:

Heuristics may be used in conjunction with optimization algorithms to improve their efficiency (e.g., they may be used to generate good seed values).

Results about NP-hardness in theoretical computer science make heuristics the only viable option for a variety of complex optimization problems that need to be routinely solved in real-world applications.



Basically it means you start with an approximate idea, and by sifting huge amounts of data, and refining the model you end up with a result and a method to gain results which is the best available in the now.

wOBA=\frac{(0.72*NIBB) + (0.75*HBP) + (0.90*\mathit{1}B) + (0.92*RBOE) + (1.24*\mathit{2}B) + (1.56*\mathit{3}B) + (1.95*HR)}{PA}

wOBA is a closer answer to truth than other available methods in this space. Just because some fail to acknowledge that, or have no means available to understand the math it does not render this equation false.

"Heurisitcs is actually closer to the mark IMO."

My thoughts pricisely!

lol, please
09-18-2012, 09:37 PM
They are basically idiotic, meaningless statistics that people like to spout because it makes them feel intelligent at work, at home and forums like this.
The stats are garbage but people will defend them and ridicule those, like me and many others who know how useless they are. They would never admit to it because that would show they are not as smart as they want people to think they are.

Don't waste you time with those stats.
:laugh2:

this thread has jeffy written all over it haha

This :laugh2:

Pinstripe pride
09-19-2012, 08:03 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX7V6FAoTLc

TrueYankee
09-19-2012, 09:00 AM
Hahahaha

People actually arguing over 7Chuck7. Do. Not. Bother.

I got banned two days for telling him to go $$$$ himself.

I think you can see why. And how mods never do anything about him, is beyond me.

I'll stop there

Jeffy25
09-19-2012, 04:44 PM
"Heurisitcs is actually closer to the mark IMO."

My thoughts pricisely!

Do you even know what he is saying?

I'm not trying to be rude, but your last two posts are just quoting the first part of his first sentence and adding a laugh or an agreement.

You said

They are basically idiotic, meaningless statistics that people like to spout because it makes them feel intelligent at work, at home and forums like this.
The stats are garbage but people will defend them and ridicule those, like me and many others who know how useless they are. They would never admit to it because that would show they are not as smart as they want people to think they are.

Don't waste you time with those stats.
But you don't seem to understand the argument, nor does it appear you are even reading them. But are quick to dismiss them.

hoggin88
09-20-2012, 12:02 AM
I prefer the more traditional stats, in some cases....minus Wins for a pitcher.

Wins are about as meaningful to a pitcher as Post Counts are to a PSD poster.

Some use the traditional, others advanced metrics. Metrics never really change my mind on how good or bad I think a player is. It replaces imperfect stats with other imperfect stats, and makes some players that blow look slightly better.

In regards to WAR, I see why some people use it, and understand it, but at the same time you still can't say what a AAA player coming to the majors is going to do.

What a AAA player might actually come up and do is irrelevant. WAR isn't comparing a MLB player to the actual AAA player who is next in line within their system. It compares each MLB player to a hypothetical AAA player, which just serves as a baseline for comparison.

SuperiorState
09-20-2012, 12:04 AM
What I don't understand about WAR is creating the baseline from AAA players. I understand why but don't understand how.

Do they use traditional stats to create the baseline because you cannot use WAR on them without creating another baseline which would be AA players and so on.

Is the fact that they are batting against AAA pitchers and not Major Leaguers factored in? Do they use like a negative handicap to factoer that fact in because alot of these guys in AAA will hit better off of a lifetime minor leaguer than say a Kershaw or Strasburg. (Yes I understand that only a small percent of AAA players are lifers and not all Major Leaguers deserve to be pitching but it was just a thought)

The other thing I don't understand is how the rate difficulty of positions. It seems like a subjective system. Do they use a more concrete objective method for this and what is it?

I'm seriously not trolling or being a dick. I am just trying to understand.

SuperiorState
09-20-2012, 12:05 AM
Nice to see you have calmed down. No need to go ballistic and bust an artery every time I post something. I think that 'time out' you got did some good.

Glad to have you back!!!!

We missed you!!!

you're baiting and it makes you look bad

Jeffy25
09-20-2012, 12:14 AM
What I don't understand about WAR is creating the baseline from AAA players. I understand why but don't understand how.

Do they use traditional stats to create the baseline because you cannot use WAR on them without creating another baseline which would be AA players and so on.

Is the fact that they are batting against AAA pitchers and not Major Leaguers factored in? Do they use like a negative handicap to factoer that fact in because alot of these guys in AAA will hit better off of a lifetime minor leaguer than say a Kershaw or Strasburg. (Yes I understand that only a small percent of AAA players are lifers and not all Major Leaguers deserve to be pitching but it was just a thought)

The other thing I don't understand is how the rate difficulty of positions. It seems like a subjective system. Do they use a more concrete objective method for this and what is it?

I'm seriously not trolling or being a dick. I am just trying to understand.
Here is your explanation of how
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

You probably want to read
'How to use WAR'
and
'The Concept of Replacement Players'

Instead of just reading the whole thing. You'll probably get the best answer you are looking for out of those two sections

SuperiorState
09-20-2012, 01:52 AM
Here is your explanation of how
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

You probably want to read
'How to use WAR'
and
'The Concept of Replacement Players'

Instead of just reading the whole thing. You'll probably get the best answer you are looking for out of those two sections

Thank you

Jeffy25
09-20-2012, 01:58 AM
Thank you

No problem.

I have no problem with people dismissing the use or value of the WAR statistic.

But when someone dismisses it without any knowledge of the statistic, or how it is/should be used, then that is nothing but ignorance.

I don't think anyone uses the stat like it's the best stat on earth and it's all you need for an argument (although that happens at times). But the statistic is very telling towards value it helps show the number of runs that player has been worth vs another player.