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elements1985
07-21-2012, 11:10 AM
Suppose you're CC's agent, and trying to 'sell' the player to GM's around the league. Would you shift the focus to Runs Created?

People have suggested the Crawford signing had nothing to do with baseball, but I'm wondering if the BRS were somewhat swayed by that stat?

bagwell368
07-21-2012, 11:45 AM
Suppose you're CC's agent, and trying to 'sell' the player to GM's around the league. Would you shift the focus to Runs Created?

People have suggested the Crawford signing had nothing to do with baseball, but I'm wondering if the BRS were somewhat swayed by that stat?

Crawford's RC and wRC were good in 2009-2010 both because that was his peak and because the averages of LF hitters had sunk to a low point over the past few decades (including looking at the depressed numbers overall of the last six years). He was 6th in the AL in 2010, that's his only top 10 finish. Too bad more mundane concerns such as Crawford's miserable historic slash in Fenway were not accorded more of a factor (in particular his horribly weak HR numbers).

OTOH CC's RC in Fenway overall and since the start of 2011 is miserable, his fielding has slid, and his health has taken a dive.

If I really needed a spark plug player like CC, I'd stick him in a large LF, bat him 2nd, and work a deal in which I was paying about $9M a year on, the Sox can eat the rest.

The people that dared compare CC to Clemente can now see for themselves that CC is nothing like that. CC is just like Ells - but he can't hit first or in the bottom 3, can't play CF, and gets tossed out more stealing bases by percentage and has since 2006, has less (much) HR power in Fenway, he can't even contend with the media or his Manager the piece of dog crap. CC is inferior to Ells in almost every way, and we ourselves set the floor for Ells next contract by offering that stiff CC that insane contract.

May CC burn for not taking the Angels money that he KNEW would make him happier, and may whomever was the main decision maker(s) in offering him that deal get trussed up for an eternal high colonic.

Pavelb1
07-21-2012, 11:53 AM
I would use his 'Tito turned me into a bad player' tactic, and point out how BV has him looking like the CC of old. (SSS but it's all I have to work with)

I'd also lie about his health and say how the 'TJS down the road is overblown'.

Nomar
07-21-2012, 12:31 PM
I would use his 'Tito turned me into a bad player' tactic, and point out how BV has him looking like the CC of old. (SSS but it's all I have to work with)

I'd also lie about his health and say how the 'TJS down the road is overblown'.

It sort of is though. A lot of people think he needs TJS after this season, when in reality hes only going to need to have have it when his elbow blows out. We don't know when that will happen though.

elements1985
07-21-2012, 12:53 PM
Crawford's RC and wRC were good in 2009-2010 both because that was his peak and because the averages of LF hitters had sunk to a low point over the past few decades (including looking at the depressed numbers overall of the last six years). He was 6th in the AL in 2010, that's his only top 10 finish. Too bad more mundane concerns such as Crawford's miserable historic slash in Fenway were not accorded more of a factor (in particular his horribly weak HR numbers).

OTOH CC's RC in Fenway overall and since the start of 2011 is miserable, his fielding has slid, and his health has taken a dive.

If I really needed a spark plug player like CC, I'd stick him in a large LF, bat him 2nd, and work a deal in which I was paying about $9M a year on, the Sox can eat the rest.

The people that dared compare CC to Clemente can now see for themselves that CC is nothing like that. CC is just like Ells - but he can't hit first or in the bottom 3, can't play CF, and gets tossed out more stealing bases by percentage and has since 2006, has less (much) HR power in Fenway, he can't even contend with the media or his Manager the piece of dog crap. CC is inferior to Ells in almost every way, and we ourselves set the floor for Ells next contract by offering that stiff CC that insane contract.

May CC burn for not taking the Angels money that he KNEW would make him happier, and may whomever was the main decision maker(s) in offering him that deal get trussed up for an eternal high colonic.

So wRC is weighted by each position? Not sure how that works to be honest.

I guess the point of this thread is largely about the value of players with CC's skill set. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like the following theme runs through most advanced stats (offensively at least): OBP + SLG --> TB --> RC --> WAR

We know Crawford's OPS shouldn't command $20+ million in salary, but could SB's somehow compensate his deficiencies in OBP and SLG with respect to RC (I've seen formulas where stolen bases are included).

Most of the anti-CC discussions have mentioned the following paradox: an athletic base-stealer who doesn't get on base. But I'm curious.... Who creates more runs: the .350 OBP player who steals 40 bases or the .385 who steals 10?

I dunno, the whole idea of runs contributed seems bring up an interesting conversation on speedy/athletic players vs. the traditional boppers.... And then you get the Ellsburys, who are a hybrid between both.

If it's all about creating and preventing runs in the abstract, it seems like there's a case to be made for CC's skill set.

tc2deuce
07-21-2012, 03:28 PM
Carl Crawford has gotten thrown under the bus faster than any Sox player I have ever seen! When he was 100% healthy and broken in, he was batting above .300 then he got hurt and some fans write him off. Now I want him gone because he doesn't deserve this BS. He signed a huge contract which any of us would do and he has had an injury....GIVE THE DUDE A BREAK! Meanwhile, Beckett continues to rob us and remain a cancer in the clubhouse........TRADE HIM!

Pavelb1
07-21-2012, 03:31 PM
Carl Crawford has gotten thrown under the bus faster than any Sox player I have ever seen! When he was 100% healthy and broken in, he was batting above .300 then he got hurt and some fans write him off. Now I want him gone because he doesn't deserve this BS. He signed a huge contract which any of us would do and he has had an injury....GIVE THE DUDE A BREAK! Meanwhile, Beckett continues to rob us and remain a cancer in the clubhouse........TRADE HIM!

coughjddrewcough

Crawford has never HAD AN ON BASE PCT over .295 for the Sox last year...nevermind a .300 batting average.

Nomar
07-21-2012, 03:31 PM
Carl Crawford has gotten thrown under the bus faster than any Sox player I have ever seen! When he was 100% healthy and broken in, he was batting above .300 then he got hurt and some fans write him off. Now I want him gone because he doesn't deserve this BS. He signed a huge contract which any of us would do and he has had an injury....GIVE THE DUDE A BREAK! Meanwhile, Beckett continues to rob us and remain a cancer in the clubhouse........TRADE HIM!

even if he won MVP this year and next year the contract we gave him would still be awful

elements1985
07-21-2012, 04:06 PM
As if u would turn away from 40 more million.

But you're missing the point: if feeling secure and wanted are the necessary requisites to CC performing at a high-level -- natural needs, of course; but they're especially important for Crawford -- why not go to the better fit for less money?

MagicBucsSox
07-22-2012, 10:50 AM
But you're missing the point: if feeling secure and wanted are the necessary requisites to CC performing at a high-level -- natural needs, of course; but they're especially important for Crawford -- why not go to the better fit for less money?

And how was LAA a better fit? He's been the guy we wanted since he's gotten back. Trade him for Hanley? Fine but the guy is ballin right now. Let him be.

Ps 40mil is 40mil. He's gonna feel "secure" rest his life

elements1985
07-22-2012, 11:59 AM
And how was LAA a better fit? He's been the guy we wanted since he's gotten back. Trade him for Hanley? Fine but the guy is ballin right now. Let him be.

Ps 40mil is 40mil. He's gonna feel "secure" rest his life

LAA play a more small-ball game -- or they used to at least -- so CC's skill set better fits their system.... Not to mention the more benign media and relaxed So Cal environment....

And Crawford is far from 'ballin' right now -- his AB's are pitiful. 9/10 they go: first pitch strike, foul ball, slider away (K)/ground ball (PO).... He lacks the ability work deep into counts.... Watch Gonzalez, on the other hand: he can start 0-2 and work his way back to a walk.... Same with Pedroia....

Another frustrating element of CC game is the lack of power. Speed is usually a corollary of strength (strength --> power --> speed). For someone at 215 lbs. with that quickness, the SLG should be much higher (.515+).

bagwell368
07-22-2012, 12:29 PM
It wasn't 40 more million, the final offer of the Angels was just a few dollars under.

bagwell368
07-22-2012, 12:36 PM
And how was LAA a better fit? He's been the guy we wanted since he's gotten back. Trade him for Hanley? Fine but the guy is ballin right now. Let him be.

Ps 40mil is 40mil. He's gonna feel "secure" rest his life

You are using a 6 game sample size? Crawford has an 88 OPS+, zero xBH, has already cost his team 2 runs on defense, and got all 3 of his steals in one game.

H -- PA

1 for 4
3 for 4
1 for 4
1 for 4
1 for 4
0 for 4

Seriously... this is what you want? .318 OBP with a .318 SLG? With 1 BB and 1 RBI? One great game and 5 games of not bloody much... classic Carl.

No way I'll let him be. He always sucked in Boston before he came, he said Boston was his least liked place to play about 14 months before he signed the deal (in the local TB papers which appears to have been deleted).

F him. I was dead right on before he even came here about what a titanic bust he was going to be. You want to go down with the ship? Fine with me. He blows.

bagwell368
07-22-2012, 12:59 PM
So wRC is weighted by each position? Not sure how that works to be honest.

What I was going for was in the pool of LF's in 2009-2010 CC was quite high up in RC partly because those were his peak seasons and partially because the average AL LF was at a very low ebb over say the past 25 years.


Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like the following theme runs through most advanced stats (offensively at least): OBP + SLG --> TB --> RC --> WAR

OBP is king, and CC is barely a prince, and by LF/Fenway standards he's even lower. CC's HR power in Fenway is awful, his 2B power is good - still way short of historic Fenway LF'ers or $20.7M players.


We know Crawford's OPS shouldn't command $20+ million in salary, but could SB's somehow compensate his deficiencies in OBP and SLG with respect to RC (I've seen formulas where stolen bases are included).

They do not. His defense outside of Fenway is quite good and makes up a decent amount of his shortfall with the bat. Base running is much less important, and CC's base running as a percentage of times he could steal and his CS% rates have been slowly and steadily sinking since 2006 - something Theo must have known. The net value of his baserunning in a high run scoring/high 2B's/high OBP line-up would be damped down as well (Mgr not wanting to risk outs with a base runner with an SB% sinking into the 60's % range). Displacing the easily superior #2 hitter Pedroia further reduces the amount of runs the team will score due to CC's inferior OBP compared to Pedroia (and SLG% as well).


Most of the anti-CC discussions have mentioned the following paradox: an athletic base-stealer who doesn't get on base. But I'm curious.... Who creates more runs: the .350 OBP player who steals 40 bases or the .385 who steals 10?

I looked at this about 2 years ago. .330 with 40 SB (at a 67% rate) is about the same as a .355 with 10 SB's. So in your case the .385 should win handily.


If it's all about creating and preventing runs in the abstract, it seems like there's a case to be made for CC's skill set.

CC obviously has ML skills. BUT:

1. Boston's LF is the smallest of the 90 OF's in the Majors - 1/2 the season wasted skill (plus evidence is clear CC doesn't play the walls that well). I.E. paying for unused skill.

2. Boston's heavily LHH line-up with an existing elite #2 hitter pushes Pedroia out of his spot or CC to a spot he can't handle (IE the #7 slot disaster of last year).

3. CC seems spooked by the media, fans, and even the Manager. He's not a tough hard edged player. He's a soft small market player.

4. As I said his base running skill/abilities have been waning for some time. At some point if his CS% increases another 5-7% he'll end up costing the team runs if he keeps running. Bad news.

5. Crawfords's ridiculously low HR totals in Fenway continues from his day as a visiting player. His 2B and 3B counts are not too bad, but certainly keep him from anything near being an elite hitter.

He's not a $20.7M player. He's about a $7M player IMO - going back to day one in Boston to the end of that deal wherever he ends up.

MagicBucsSox
07-22-2012, 01:03 PM
Ok 16m more, but he was joining a team we all thought be the best in the league, this was a sinking angel team with no trout, pujols etc.

If u can move him for more flexability fine, but he's the least of the problem.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/11/report-the-angels-may-have-matched-bostons-offer-for-carl-crawford/