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View Full Version : Ichiro Vs. Drew Hitting



Bos_Sports4Life
07-15-2012, 11:12 PM
Ok, I'm going STRICTLY hitting...

Which would score More runs, 9 JD Drews vs. 9 Ichiro's, Here's a few stats...

Im asking because I was called a "stat geek" and a "moron" for picking JD Drew as the better HITTER. Again, not factoring in fielding.


Ichiro

Basic

AVG- .323
OBP- .366
SLG- .418
OPS- .784

Advanced

wOBA- .345
wRC+ (Runs Created/Park adjusted) 114


JD Drew

Basic

AVG- .278 (45 points worse)
OBP- .384 (18 points higher)
SLG- .489 (71 points higher)
OPS- .873 (89 points higher)


Advanced

wOBA- .377 (32 points higher)
wRC+ (Runs Created/Park adjusted) 127 (13 higher)

giants73756
07-15-2012, 11:22 PM
Pretty obviously JD Drew.

JermanJaysFan
07-15-2012, 11:31 PM
Drew...

OpenAvalin
07-15-2012, 11:39 PM
I like this thread. Its interesting. However, I would still rather have 9 Ichiros. But good observation. There are more stats than just those that Ichiro leads in

bomber0104
07-15-2012, 11:44 PM
i'm not that up to date on some of these saber stats but does wRC factor in the speed..

When you have 9 Ichiros in your lineup, a lot of those singles (leading to the low slugging) end up being doubles with the stolen base ability

Az_Dodgers_Fan
07-16-2012, 12:41 AM
Ichiro because Drew would get a hangnail or his period would hit or something and he wouldn't be able to go.

Jeffy25
07-16-2012, 01:06 AM
Lol, it's Drew easily.

If all we are talking about is these two as hitters, it's easily J.D. Drew, he crushes Ichiro.

J.D. Drew created 1003 runs in 6153 career PA, Ichiro has created 1152 in 8444 PA

Know how bad of a hitter Drew would have to be to only created 149 more runs in his next 2300 PA? Horrible.

Their .377 wOBA to .345 should tell you everything you need to know.

Jeffy25
07-16-2012, 01:07 AM
i'm not that up to date on some of these saber stats but does wRC factor in the speed..

When you have 9 Ichiros in your lineup, a lot of those singles (leading to the low slugging) end up being doubles with the stolen base ability

He was only asking about these two as hitters. Their stolen base ability has nothing to do with their hitting abilities.

Bos_Sports4Life
07-16-2012, 01:37 AM
Lol, it's Drew easily.

If all we are talking about is these two as hitters, it's easily J.D. Drew, he crushes Ichiro.

J.D. Drew created 1003 runs in 6153 career PA, Ichiro has created 1152 in 8444 PA

Know how bad of a hitter Drew would have to be to only created 149 more runs in his next 2300 PA? Horrible.

Their .377 wOBA to .345 should tell you everything you need to know.

Quick question..Maybe you'll have an answer...


Why do some people STILL judge a hitter based largely on outdated methods such as Batting AVG/Total hits ect?

Jeffy25
07-16-2012, 01:42 AM
Quick question..Maybe you'll have an answer...


Why do some people STILL judge a hitter based largely on outdated methods such as Batting AVG/Total hits ect?

Because they don't know any better? :shrug:

That's my assumption at least.

It's usually people that haven't taken a lot of time to try to understand the more in depth methods of offensive analytics.

Every single person I have ever explained them to that had any interest in learning anything new have easily understood their value and it made sense to them. It didn't mean they could recite them or could explain them back, but understood the premise and quickly understand that batting average/total hits is....well as useless as RBI's and Wins for pitchers. It's usually just that people don't know enough about the information/stats to answer. Either that, or they choose to ignore it out of spite for hating sabr-metrics because it's cool to hate things.

I chalk it up to most people don't know enough about offensive analytics though, and there is nothing wrong with that. Especially if you don't want to be a very in depth baseball fan, which most people don't seem to want to be in the first place.

It's pretty easy to explain how J.D. Drew has been the better hitter compared to Ichiro over the years, even though he has less plate appearances.

Bos_Sports4Life
07-16-2012, 01:54 AM
Because they don't know any better? :shrug:

That's my assumption at least.

It's usually people that haven't taken a lot of time to try to understand the more in depth methods of offensive analytics.

Every single person I have ever explained them to that had any interest in learning anything new have easily understood their value and it made sense to them. It didn't mean they could recite them or could explain them back, but understood the premise and quickly understand that batting average/total hits is....well as useless as RBI's and Wins for pitchers. It's usually just that people don't know enough about the information/stats to answer. Either that, or they choose to ignore it out of spite for hating sabr-metrics because it's cool to hate things.

I chalk it up to most people don't know enough about offensive analytics though, and there is nothing wrong with that. Especially if you don't want to be a very in depth baseball fan, which most people don't seem to want to be in the first place.

It's pretty easy to explain how J.D. Drew has been the better hitter compared to Ichiro over the years, even though he has less plate appearances.

The problem is, These people THINK they know what they are talking about and for some reason are hardwired into thinking batting AVG is extremely important when in fact it has minimal impact..

They keep telling me i need to "prove it"..I just don't know where there is concrete proof..Maybe there's some links? No idea

A lot of the problem imo is ESPN has made the masses of casual fans even less educated. ESPN doesn't obviously talk about advanced stats much and are still more so geared towards traditional stats that have little to no meaning.

Jeffy25
07-16-2012, 02:01 AM
The problem is, These people THINK they know what they are talking about and for some reason are hardwired into thinking batting AVG is extremely important when in fact it has minimal impact..

They keep telling me i need to "prove it"..I just don't know where there is concrete proof..Maybe there's some links? No idea

A lot of the problem imo is ESPN has made the masses of casual fans even less educated. ESPN doesn't obviously talk about advanced stats much and are still more so geared towards traditional stats that have little to no meaning.

Well batting averages flaws are pretty easy to point out.


"When a hitter draws a walk, batting average acts like nothing happened. But OBP not only shows the players batting average, but also gives them credit for every time they reached base, regardless if it was a hit by pitch, a walk, etc"

Everyone can understand very quickly why OBP would be more valuable than AVG. It tells more.

But Slugging percentage also tells you more than batting average because a single isn't worth the same as a home run, or a double, or a triple. And a double isn't worth as much as a home run, or a triple. But batting average treats each extra base hit as the exact same as a single. And we know that isn't right. Because clearly a home run is worth more to a team than a single.

These are both pretty damn obvious, and anyone that choses to ignore this....is well....woefully ignorant. This is information that should be pretty well known by now to anyone that follows baseball even just a little. Even my 8 year old nephew knows the difference (it was discussed this weekend).

And we also know that OBP and Slugging have their flaws as well, but not to the extent of batting average. But that's a lot more typing than I feel like doing now, and I know that you (Bos Sports4Life) already know all of it :)

ESPN grabs the attention of the casual baseball fan. Or the fan that likes other sports maybe more than baseball. They give you the brief information about whatever is topical in baseball at that time, and that's it. And most people, that is really all they want.

I have seen some advanced stats displayed on ESPN, but I know it isn't shown much, or even talked about much.

Bos_Sports4Life
07-16-2012, 02:08 AM
Well batting averages flaws are pretty easy to point out.


"When a hitter draws a walk, batting average acts like nothing happened. But OBP not only shows the players batting average, but also gives them credit for every time they reached base, regardless if it was a hit by pitch, a walk, etc"

Everyone can understand very quickly why OBP would be more valuable than AVG. It tells more.

But Slugging percentage also tells you more than batting average because a single isn't worth the same as a home run, or a double, or a triple. And a double isn't worth as much as a home run, or a triple. But batting average treats each extra base hit as the exact same as a single. And we know that isn't right. Because clearly a home run is worth more to a team than a single.

These are both pretty damn obvious, and anyone that choses to ignore this....is well....woefully ignorant. This is information that should be pretty well known by now to anyone that follows baseball even just a little. Even my 8 year old nephew knows the difference (it was discussed this weekend).

And we also know that OBP and Slugging have their flaws as well, but not to the extent of batting average. But that's a lot more typing than I feel like doing now, and I know that you (Bos Sports4Life) already know all of it :)

ESPN grabs the attention of the casual baseball fan. Or the fan that likes other sports maybe more than baseball. They give you the brief information about whatever is topical in baseball at that time, and that's it. And most people, that is really all they want.

I have seen some advanced stats displayed on ESPN, but I know it isn't shown much, or even talked about much.


1 last quick question, Ive heard several advaned stats are 95%+ accurate. Do you know if these stats are judged against past games?

Like do they plug in a teams AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA/RC+ ect ect and it spits out a run total that is 95%+ accurate to the runs the teams really did score?

I was just curious how they meaure the accuracy of these stats (even though I obviously believe it is)

Jeffy25
07-16-2012, 02:18 AM
1 last quick question, Ive heard several advaned stats are 95%+ accurate. Do you know if these stats are judged against past games?

Like do they plug in a teams AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA/RC+ ect ect and it spits out a run total that is 95%+ accurate to the runs the teams really did score?

I was just curious how they meaure the accuracy of these stats (even though I obviously believe it is)

Sure. It's usually very high, the only thing that distracts from it is a teams LOB% and the amount of double plays they hit into.

Otherwise it should land right on.

If you gave me a teams AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA/ and wRC+ and the team name (stadium and DH and PA reasons why) I could tell you within 5% the teams total runs. The only factor left over would be the teams Left On Base Percentage (did they strand a ton of guys or hit awesome with 2 outs?) and the amount of double plays they hit into. That's going to erase some of those base hits and walks over the course of the season.

It's pretty damn accurate. Offensive statistics are easily the most advanced and accurate of all sabr-metrics in current use. Pitching metrics is a pretty distant second because it's difficult to judge how much the pitcher really controls and how much of it is between the ears etc. And then defensive metrics are still in the Iron Age comparatively. They are really really far behind but have been progressing pretty well the last 3 years.

NateyB24
07-16-2012, 02:34 AM
Just curious but how do you compare Career stats against another one when one has had less seasons? I get that you have to maintain that but wouldn't Ichiro have better stats say if he started at an earlier age like 22?? I realize his slugging wouldn't be better because he doesn't really have the type of swing to drive the ball.

Jeffy25
07-16-2012, 02:38 AM
Just curious but how do you compare Career stats against another one when one has had less seasons? I get that you have to maintain that but wouldn't Ichiro have better stats say if he started at an earlier age like 22?? I realize his slugging wouldn't be better because he doesn't really have the type of swing to drive the ball.

His counting stats sure would, but not his rate stats. He likely would have taken a few years to get to his peak rate stats that he carried from age 27-35 (rate as in AVG/OBP/SLUG).

He would certainly have more base hits, and more counting stats. But his rate stats would likely be negatively affected. Maybe two more peak seasons though.

It's difficult to project because it's the unknown, but we can compare him to what others have done, and what kind of numbers he was carrying when he came over.

Drew had less PA, and less value because of that, but in a side by side comparison, if you were to take their career average season and have to choose one of them to put in your lineup based on offensive numbers alone. Drew would be your choice.

Ichiro was elite at defense and base running though, and he was a more valuable ball player than Drew. But in terms of offensive value at the plate only. Drew > Ichiro.

It's funny that we talk about Ichiro playing less seasons, but he has 2300 more plate appearances than Drew.

NateyB24
07-16-2012, 02:45 AM
His counting stats sure would, but not his rate stats. He likely would have taken a few years to get to his peak rate stats that he carried from age 27-35 (rate as in AVG/OBP/SLUG).

He would certainly have more base hits, and more counting stats. But his rate stats would likely be negatively affected. Maybe two more peak seasons though.

It's difficult to project because it's the unknown, but we can compare him to what others have done, and what kind of numbers he was carrying when he came over.

Drew had less PA, and less value because of that, but in a side by side comparison, if you were to take their career average season and have to choose one of them to put in your lineup based on offensive numbers alone. Drew would be your choice.

Ichiro was elite at defense and base running though, and he was a more valuable ball player than Drew. But in terms of offensive value at the plate only. Drew > Ichiro.

It's funny that we talk about Ichiro playing less seasons, but he has 2300 more plate appearances than Drew.

Got it thanks.