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WrightStuff82
07-15-2012, 04:27 PM
For any particular pitcher vs batter matchup, how did you split the statistics between the two for your outcome probability? 50-50?

WrightStuff82
07-15-2012, 04:39 PM
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/scholars/levitt/articles/batter_pitcher_matchup.htm

Wow, I shoulda just did a little google work. And my instincts were correct:



Assuming a .260 league average, the .290 pitcher is worse than average. Therefore, the batter should hit for a higher average against this pitcher than his overall average.

WrightStuff82
07-15-2012, 05:04 PM
I used James' formula on 5 different variables. Line Drives %, GB%, FB%, BB%, K% and previously where they added up to 1, they are now adding up to .973 after using his formula. Not sure what I did wrong.

Hitter:
LD% - .2144
GB% - .3103
FB% - .2553
BB% - .0782
K% - .142

Totals 1.0002


Pitcher
LD% - .1591
GB% - .2095
FB% - .3268
BB% - .0828
K% - .2218

Totals 1.0000

Using James Formula (Batter * Pitcher * / League) / B*P/L + ((1-B)*(1-P)/(1-L) is coming up with:

LD% - .2271
GB% - .1975
FB% - .3070
BB% - .0799
K% - .1612

.9727


Thoughts?

WrightStuff82
07-15-2012, 05:06 PM
Nevermind, I found it. One of my league average numbers was off a little. I now got 1.0069 and 1.0035 with another matchup. Good enough :D.