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View Full Version : Justin Verlander R.A. Dickey Matt Cain or Stephen Strasburg



R8Rfriar
06-22-2012, 01:22 AM
Game 7 of the world series, who would you trust to win the Game?

DodgerB24
06-22-2012, 01:26 AM
Matthew.Thomas.Cain.

Or Verlander. I'm not picky.

t327
06-22-2012, 01:27 AM
I chose Verlander. Tough choice between him and Cain, though. Verlander is the better pitcher.

T 980
06-22-2012, 01:28 AM
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lincecum=future
06-22-2012, 01:30 AM
Verlander

AlexGordon4
06-22-2012, 01:30 AM
dickey

R8Rfriar
06-22-2012, 01:31 AM
sorry for my Ignorance..no H at the end of strasburg:facepalm:

sexicano31
06-22-2012, 01:34 AM
Cain/Verlander
Stras




Dickey

YanksNats1987
06-22-2012, 01:37 AM
sorry for my Ignorance..no H at the end of strasburg:facepalm:

Little known fact: Stephen Strasburgh and Pittsburgh are sister cities.

As far as the poll question I'd go Verlander. Can't pass up on a fellow Old Dominion guy.

rocket
06-22-2012, 01:39 AM
Verlander

Kings Analyst
06-22-2012, 01:41 AM
Cain
Verlander
Strasburg
Dickey

RTL
06-22-2012, 01:59 AM
I saw Matt Cain go the entire 2010 playoffs without giving up a run so the choice is very clear to me.

Lakers + Giants
06-22-2012, 02:31 AM
Cain. Been there before. No runs given up in the playoffs.

Public Enemy #1
06-22-2012, 02:53 AM
Tough choice between Verlander and Cain. I would go with Cain. No runs allowed in the playoffs... BEAST

KingPosey
06-22-2012, 02:58 AM
I homered it and went Cain. I know his stuff well, and I trust him. He didnt give up a run in the playoffs when we won the WS.

KingPosey
06-22-2012, 03:00 AM
No disrespect to the Big Dick, but KNuckleballers scare me. When their knuckles dont knuckle, they are ****ed.

The SF Giant
06-22-2012, 06:05 AM
Strasburg all day err day

ahoda
06-22-2012, 07:04 AM
Verlander sucks in the post season.

I'd probably go with Strasburg in this scenario.

freedas
06-22-2012, 07:21 AM
I saw Matt Cain go the entire 2010 playoffs without giving up a run so the choice is very clear to me.

What he said

mtf
06-22-2012, 07:38 AM
Strasburg would be my choice. I know he doesn't have the track record of Verlander or Cain yet, but I think he's someone who can take on the best line-ups in baseball and destroy them.

Pinstripe pride
06-22-2012, 08:09 AM
Stephen Strasburgh and his bionic arm

NYMETS2889
06-22-2012, 08:40 AM
i went homer and picked Dickey-i dont expect him to get much love-for the rest of baseball he is just catching on now and getting the fame he deserves but ive seen him be one of baseballs most underrated top pitchers ive seen

btw id take any of them over strasburg this year because strasbrug will not be pitching passed 160 which is way before when game 7 will be played

waveycrockett
06-22-2012, 08:42 AM
Dickey!!

Seriously though I'd probably have to go with Strassyburger. His stuff is definitely the best on this list right now.

oak2455
06-22-2012, 08:46 AM
Justine...Matt .... Steven... Than the Dickster

todu82
06-22-2012, 09:06 AM
Verlander

Ill21
06-22-2012, 09:12 AM
Verlander

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 12:23 PM
Stras or Verlander. The other two are not on the same level.

1903
06-22-2012, 12:30 PM
Verlander.

NYMets0507
06-22-2012, 12:32 PM
Matt Cain. Has been to the WS before, and it was mentioned that he hasn't given up a run in the playoffs. Wowza.

SportsNY
06-22-2012, 01:27 PM
Justin Verlander.

masTOR_shake1
06-22-2012, 01:52 PM
dickey shouldn't be an option imo, not at top 4 pitcher

OneTuzSea
06-22-2012, 02:01 PM
If you picked RA Dickey you should be ashamed of yourself. Or you're a Mets fan... Actually if you're a Mets fan you're probably ashamed of yourself anyway.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 02:17 PM
If you picked RA Dickey you should be ashamed of yourself. Or you're a Mets fan... Actually if you're a Mets fan you're probably ashamed of yourself anyway.

haha

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 02:17 PM
We can remove Dickey and put Halladay or Lee on there

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 02:18 PM
Strasburg would be my choice. I know he doesn't have the track record of Verlander or Cain yet, but I think he's someone who can take on the best line-ups in baseball and destroy them.

Absolutely this

RTL
06-22-2012, 02:33 PM
Just like Cain did in 2010:)

1903
06-22-2012, 02:35 PM
We can remove Dickey and put Halladay or Lee on there

Lee's last few games in the post-season do nothing to deter me from picking him.

nirvana235
06-22-2012, 02:37 PM
Gimme the Dickster.

GamerFTW
06-22-2012, 02:46 PM
Right now it's a tie between Cain and Verlander. But in a couple of years, probably Strasburg.

northsider
06-22-2012, 02:54 PM
Strasburg
Cain
Verlander








Dickey.

Pakman
06-22-2012, 02:57 PM
Weaver. On a serious note. Verlander. His stuff is nasty.

NYMetropolitans
06-22-2012, 03:17 PM
Was between Verlander and Cain, picked Verlander but he's been shaky in the postseason. Have faith that eventually when he gets back there he'll turn it on.

NYMETS2889
06-22-2012, 03:20 PM
dickey shouldn't be an option imo, not at top 4 pitcher

just the best pitcher in baseball-but youre right he isnt top 4:facepalm:

game 7 this year i would take him over any of these guys he has had 1 bad start-his only loss-obviously non mets fans will hesitate to buy in and its understandable you guys get caught up in being able to blow the ball by people (something verlander/cain/stras have in common) but results show this year dickey has been better then all 3-take who you want ill take RA and beat you

NYMetropolitans
06-22-2012, 03:20 PM
We can remove Dickey and put Halladay or Lee on there

Why can we do that? As of right now he is one of the best MLB pitchers. We're talking about right now. Not the past. Which is why I picked Verlander, because if I had looked at his history I would say no...he's terrible in October.

Dickey deserves to be in this conversation as of right now.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 04:00 PM
Why can we do that? As of right now he is one of the best MLB pitchers. We're talking about right now. Not the past. Which is why I picked Verlander, because if I had looked at his history I would say no...he's terrible in October.

Dickey deserves to be in this conversation as of right now.

Over the last two months, sure Dickey has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

But I would rather pick from someone who has been one of the best pitchers in the game for the last 5 years. Not 2 months.

anyway, if I had just one game, I'm all in on Strasburg, he is as close to impossible to hit as anyone in the game, yes, even over the guy with back to back one hitters.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 04:02 PM
just the best pitcher in baseball-but youre right he isnt top 4:facepalm:

game 7 this year i would take him over any of these guys he has had 1 bad start-his only loss-obviously non mets fans will hesitate to buy in and its understandable you guys get caught up in being able to blow the ball by people (something verlander/cain/stras have in common) but results show this year dickey has been better then all 3-take who you want ill take RA and beat you

Mets fans have got to get off Dickey being the best pitcher in baseball. 2 months does not a pitcher make.


He has been great as of late, but he is just reaching the level that other guys have been maintaining for a very long time.

He is not the best pitcher in baseball. He is pitching great right now, lot's of strike outs, very few walks and keeping the ball in the yard. There are guys that are obviously better options that have been better pitchers for a lot longer.

scaramantula
06-22-2012, 04:34 PM
wheres other?

scottythegreat1
06-22-2012, 05:07 PM
Out of those 4, Verlander. If I had a choice Id take Halladay.

Nymfan87
06-22-2012, 05:33 PM
Over the last two months, sure Dickey has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

But I would rather pick from someone who has been one of the best pitchers in the game for the last 5 years. Not 2 months.

anyway, if I had just one game, I'm all in on Strasburg, he is as close to impossible to hit as anyone in the game, yes, even over the guy with back to back one hitters.

Dating back to 2010, Dickey has the 6th lowest ERA among starters in baseball. Pretty sure that's enough to make you one of the best pitchers in the game. I wouldn't take him for a game 7 situation unless you could guarantee me that the weather would be perfect though. ERA is all that matters for Dickey because he's a knuckleballer.

NYMETS2889
06-22-2012, 05:36 PM
Mets fans have got to get off Dickey being the best pitcher in baseball. 2 months does not a pitcher make.


He has been great as of late, but he is just reaching the level that other guys have been maintaining for a very long time.

He is not the best pitcher in baseball. He is pitching great right now, lot's of strike outs, very few walks and keeping the ball in the yard. There are guys that are obviously better options that have been better pitchers for a lot longer.

i have to assume the question means this season-and RIGHT NOW this season you would be an idiot to take anyone else-he may not have the resume the other guys have but again (assuming the question is RIGHT NOW) its RA no way around it

now if they question is a pitcher for game 7-give me 2000 pedro, 1985 doc gooden, randy johnson on the d backs, greg maddux any point in his career really

but if its not any pitcher and we are going off of the here and now there is no way around RA those arguing against him are answering the question of any pitcher in the last 5 years who would you take i under stand not taking him off 2 months-but thats not the question and thats why you are all wrong

northsider
06-22-2012, 05:45 PM
i have to assume the question means this season-and RIGHT NOW this season you would be an idiot to take anyone else-he may not have the resume the other guys have but again (assuming the question is RIGHT NOW) its RA no way around it

now if they question is a pitcher for game 7-give me 2000 pedro, 1985 doc gooden, randy johnson on the d backs, greg maddux any point in his career really

but if its not any pitcher and we are going off of the here and now there is no way around RA those arguing against him are answering the question of any pitcher in the last 5 years who would you take i under stand not taking him off 2 months-but thats not the question and thats why you are all wrong

You would without a doubt not be an idiot to take any of those other guys over Dickey. Strasburg would be my pick without hesitation as he is about as nasty as they get and a guy who I would trust to mow down on any given day and at worse still have a quality start.

1903
06-22-2012, 05:46 PM
i have to assume the question means this season-and RIGHT NOW this season you would be an idiot to take anyone else-he may not have the resume the other guys have but again (assuming the question is RIGHT NOW) its RA no way around it

now if they question is a pitcher for game 7-give me 2000 pedro, 1985 doc gooden, randy johnson on the d backs, greg maddux any point in his career really

but if its not any pitcher and we are going off of the here and now there is no way around RA those arguing against him are answering the question of any pitcher in the last 5 years who would you take i under stand not taking him off 2 months-but thats not the question and thats why you are all wrong

Taking Strasburg or Verlander makes one an idiot? That's a clown comment bro.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 05:54 PM
i have to assume the question means this season-and RIGHT NOW this season you would be an idiot to take anyone else-he may not have the resume the other guys have but again (assuming the question is RIGHT NOW) its RA no way around it

You act as if no one else has pitched to a level even close to R.A. Dickey thus far this year


Dickey - 9.36 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 83.8 LOB%, 53.1 GB%, 2.72 FIP, 2.70 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR, 99.0 IP

Very good, no doubt

Other pitchers on the same level

Verlander - 8.78 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 71.9 LOB%, 40.5 GB%, 2.62 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 3.6 fWAR, 108.2 IP
Greinke - 9.83 K/9, 2.07 BB/9, 0.31 HR/9, 74.4 LOB%, 53.3 GB%, 2.01 FIP, 2.44 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR, 87.0 IP
Gio - 10.74 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 0.11 HR/9, 74.5 LOB%, 48 GB%, 2.06 FIP, 2.96 xFIP, 3.1 fWAR, 84.2 IP
Strasburg - 11.79 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 0.64 HR/9, 78.4 LOB%, 45.6 GB%, 2.25 FIP, 2.39 xFIP, 2.9 fWAR, 84.0 IP
Sale - 9.19 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, 77.2 LOB%, 45.4 GB%, 2.55 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 2.7 fWAR, 80.1 IP
Sabathia - 9.06 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 72.8 LOB%, 49.3 GB%, 3.21 FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR, 101.1 IP
Cain - 9.00 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 77.6 LOB%, 34.6 GB%, 2.81 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR, 100.0 IP


He is not the best pitcher in baseball right now. He has plenty of competitors for that title on the season. And every single one of these guys (except for Sale) has been doing it longer, and probably have a higher chance of keeping it up.

Only a Mets fan is going to say he is running away with it as the best pitcher in baseball right now.


now if they question is a pitcher for game 7-give me 2000 pedro, 1985 doc gooden, randy johnson on the d backs, greg maddux any point in his career really

but if its not any pitcher and we are going off of the here and now there is no way around RA those arguing against him are answering the question of any pitcher in the last 5 years who would you take i under stand not taking him off 2 months-but thats not the question and thats why you are all wrong

Looks like we aren't. Dickey isn't blowing anyone away. He is good company though.

RevHokALugie
06-22-2012, 06:13 PM
Could think of a handful of pitchers I'd use before Dickey, uh.. list wise would be Cain, Verlander, Strarsburgh.

Others off the top of my head before Dickey

Gio
Cliff Lee
Kershaw
CC
Beachy

javaid64
06-22-2012, 06:18 PM
I'll pick the guy that leads the majors in ERA, WINS, WHIP

1903
06-22-2012, 06:25 PM
I'll pick the guy that leads the majors in ERA, WINS, WHIP

We all know that wins are not a team stat right? :rolleyes:

NYMETS2889
06-22-2012, 06:26 PM
You act as if no one else has pitched to a level even close to R.A. Dickey thus far this year


Dickey - 9.36 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 83.8 LOB%, 53.1 GB%, 2.72 FIP, 2.70 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR, 99.0 IP

Very good, no doubt

Other pitchers on the same level

Verlander - 8.78 K/9, 2.24 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 71.9 LOB%, 40.5 GB%, 2.62 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 3.6 fWAR, 108.2 IP
Greinke - 9.83 K/9, 2.07 BB/9, 0.31 HR/9, 74.4 LOB%, 53.3 GB%, 2.01 FIP, 2.44 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR, 87.0 IP
Gio - 10.74 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 0.11 HR/9, 74.5 LOB%, 48 GB%, 2.06 FIP, 2.96 xFIP, 3.1 fWAR, 84.2 IP
Strasburg - 11.79 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 0.64 HR/9, 78.4 LOB%, 45.6 GB%, 2.25 FIP, 2.39 xFIP, 2.9 fWAR, 84.0 IP
Sale - 9.19 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, 77.2 LOB%, 45.4 GB%, 2.55 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 2.7 fWAR, 80.1 IP
Sabathia - 9.06 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 72.8 LOB%, 49.3 GB%, 3.21 FIP, 3.18 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR, 101.1 IP
Cain - 9.00 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9, 77.6 LOB%, 34.6 GB%, 2.81 FIP, 3.45 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR, 100.0 IP


He is not the best pitcher in baseball right now. He has plenty of competitors for that title on the season. And every single one of these guys (except for Sale) has been doing it longer, and probably have a higher chance of keeping it up.

Only a Mets fan is going to say he is running away with it as the best pitcher in baseball right now.



Looks like we aren't. Dickey isn't blowing anyone away. He is good company though.

my point is people acting like taking RA is dumb-and they bring up history (which since he came to the mets he has been a VERY good pitcher) but if you want to bring in playoffs the only guy on the list to take is cain-verlander has not been good in october and strasburg is as unknown as dickey

and to the guy saying at least a quality start-another stat dickey is leading mlb in quality start percentage

Nymfan87
06-22-2012, 06:29 PM
fWAR is stupid for pitchers because it uses a predictor stat to determine a player's value. Plus, Dickey is a knuckleballer, so he is the definition of an outlier. You can't use a stat that predicts the performance of traditional pitchers on a knuckleballer. You just can't.

FIP is trying to tell me that the Mets defense, which ranks 2nd to last in baseball in UZR, has saved Dickey 0.72 runs per 9 innings. If you honestly believe that...I don't know what to say.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 07:05 PM
fWAR is stupid for pitchers because it uses a predictor stat to determine a player's value.
What predictive stat?
FIP?

That isn't a predictive stat



Plus, Dickey is a knuckleballer, so he is the definition of an outlier. You can't use a stat that predicts the performance of traditional pitchers on a knuckleballer. You just can't.

No one is using anything predictive for him.
Predictive would be something like ZIPS

ZIPS sees him finishing 18-6 with a 2.80 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.05 BB/9

But FIP is not a predictive stat, it is calculated much the way you calculate ERA.


FIP is trying to tell me that the Mets defense, which ranks 2nd to last in baseball in UZR, has saved Dickey 0.72 runs per 9 innings. If you honestly believe that...I don't know what to say.

That isn't what FIP is doing at all. You might want to read up on what FIP really is and how it is calculated.

It is completely dependent on the things the pitcher can control, regardless of outcome. His strike outs, his walks, and his home runs allowed by his innings pitched. It's dependent of defense or anything else and is NOT a predictive statistic.

5pointer
06-22-2012, 07:28 PM
You can't ever trust a knuckleballer. You have to go Verlander/Cain

Nymfan87
06-22-2012, 07:36 PM
What predictive stat?
FIP?

That isn't a predictive stat

No one is using anything predictive for him.
Predictive would be something like ZIPS

ZIPS sees him finishing 18-6 with a 2.80 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 8.08 K/9, 2.05 BB/9

But FIP is not a predictive stat, it is calculated much the way you calculate ERA.

That isn't what FIP is doing at all. You might want to read up on what FIP really is and how it is calculated.

It is completely dependent on the things the pitcher can control, regardless of outcome. His strike outs, his walks, and his home runs allowed by his innings pitched. It's dependent of defense or anything else and is NOT a predictive statistic.

FIP predicts ERA. That's really all there is to it. On its own, FIP does nothing to tell you what actually happened in terms of runs being scored. If one guy goes 6 innings, gives up 5 runs, and walks 0 and strikes out 9 and doesn't give up a HR, FIP thinks he pitched better than his counterpart who went 6 innings, gave up 2 runs, walked 1, K'd 4, and gave up a HR. FIP says that on average, pitcher 1 will give up fewer runs than pitcher 2 over time if his FIP is lower. It doesn't mean a guy has been better, despite people trying to use it like that.

Trust me, I know what FIP is. I know how it's calculated. But that doesn't mean I don't know that it is flawed in many cases.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 07:51 PM
FIP predicts ERA. That's really all there is to it.


No it doesn't, it has nothing to do with ERA. It is it's own independent statistic.

Multiply home runs by 13, multiply walks by 3, multiply strike outs by 2. Add answer of walks and home runs and subtract strike outs, divide by innings pitched, add 3.20.

It is not to predict ERA, it is used to show what the pitcher has earned based on the things he can control. Other things affect ERA, FIP is under the pitchers control. The things he has control over by himself that have nothing to do with the defense behind him. He controls his walks, his strike outs, and his home runs allowed and his innings pitched. He to some extent does control contact and ground balls etc. But it's still debatable how much they actually can control that.


On its own, FIP does nothing to tell you what actually happened in terms of runs being scored.
Yes, it has nothing to do with runs allowed. It is telling you what the pitcher can control. He can't control if his shortstop can't make a play on a ground ball, or if his outfield can't catch a bloop single that scores two runs with two outs. The pitcher had no control over that happening, his defense did. That is why FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) has nothing to do with runs scored. Because a lot of runs scored are out of the pitchers control. And many times his defense can save his *** without him doing anything to earn that saving.



If one guy goes 6 innings, gives up 5 runs, and walks 0 and strikes out 9 and doesn't give up a HR, FIP thinks he pitched better than his counterpart who went 6 innings, gave up 2 runs, walked 1, K'd 4, and gave up a HR. FIP says that on average, pitcher 1 will give up fewer runs than pitcher 2 over time if his FIP is lower. It doesn't mean a guy has been better, despite people trying to use it like that.

You are right, it is saying the first pitcher is better. The first pitcher looks like he pitched a better game but either gave up some timely hits, or everything landed against him.

Just look at what each pitchers babip would be (assuming no double plays or hbp). The first pitcher had to give up at least 6 hits, and probably several extra base hits. At the very best, his babip is .250. The second pitcher could have given up only one hit, the home run. and his babip could be as low as .100.

These two pitchers don't control what happens after the ball leaves the bat.


Trust me, I know what FIP is. I know how it's calculated. But that doesn't mean I don't know that it is flawed in many cases.

Well you seem to think it's predictive, and it isn't.

Nymfan87
06-22-2012, 08:02 PM
No it doesn't, it has nothing to do with ERA. It is it's own independent statistic.

Multiply home runs by 13, multiply walks by 3, multiply strike outs by 2. Add answer of walks and home runs and subtract strike outs, divide by innings pitched, add 3.20.

It is not to predict ERA, it is used to show what the pitcher has earned based on the things he can control. Other things affect ERA, FIP is under the pitchers control. The things he has control over by himself that have nothing to do with the defense behind him. He controls his walks, his strike outs, and his home runs allowed and his innings pitched. He to some extent does control contact and ground balls etc. But it's still debatable how much they actually can control that.

Yes, it has nothing to do with runs allowed. It is telling you what the pitcher can control. He can't control if his shortstop can't make a play on a ground ball, or if his outfield can't catch a bloop single that scores two runs with two outs. The pitcher had no control over that happening, his defense did. That is why FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) has nothing to do with runs scored. Because a lot of runs scored are out of the pitchers control. And many times his defense can save his *** without him doing anything to earn that saving.

You are right, it is saying the first pitcher is better. The first pitcher looks like he pitched a better game but either gave up some timely hits, or everything landed against him.

Just look at what each pitchers babip would be (assuming no double plays or hbp). The first pitcher had to give up at least 6 hits, and probably several extra base hits. At the very best, his babip is .250. The second pitcher could have given up only one hit, the home run. and his babip could be as low as .100.

These two pitchers don't control what happens after the ball leaves the bat.

Well you seem to think it's predictive, and it isn't.

If FIP isn't predictive of ERA, why do they scale it to adjust to the league ERA? It's not its own independent statistic. It relies on ERA.

Nymfan87
06-22-2012, 08:08 PM
Let me put it this way: would you say that Dickey has been a little lucky so far and that his ERA should go up? If so, what would you say his ERA should eventually climb to?

kmoneyjuice
06-22-2012, 08:55 PM
Cain/Verlander
Stras




Dickey

This

R8Rfriar
06-22-2012, 09:58 PM
wheres other?

Hiding :rolleyes:

R8Rfriar
06-22-2012, 10:05 PM
The question is based on Pitchers performing at a high level right now..Roy Halladay is an elite pitcher but he has not performed that way this season


IDK how I forgot about Kershaw and Gio Gonzalez :facepalm:

will get the other option up

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 10:16 PM
If FIP isn't predictive of ERA, why do they scale it to adjust to the league ERA? It's not its own independent statistic. It relies on ERA.

It isn't scaled to ERA.

It is it's own independent statistic. It is scaled to look similar to ERA, but the league doesn't have the same FIP as ERA.



Let me put it this way: would you say that Dickey has been a little lucky so far and that his ERA should go up? If so, what would you say his ERA should eventually climb to?

Just because a pitcher has a better or worse FIP then ERA does not mean that pitcher is lucky or unlucky. Look at Matt Cain and his entire career. He has always beaten his FIP with his ERA because he strands runners incredibly well. He is the oddity, usually after 1000 innings pitched, ERA's look a lot like their FIPs. Because eventually your ERA is going to trend toward your FIP, what your true skill is.

Obviously Dickey's ERA is likely to go up, no starting pitcher in baseball can sustain a sub 3 ERA for a pro-longed period of time. You can do it in intervals, but you can't sustain it. No starter in this era can sustain a sub 3 ERA any longer. And Dickey isn't going to be that exception. But he is pitching very well. If he can lower his home run rate, he could continue to improve.

FIP is a skill statistic, not a value statistic (which is why I disagree with Fangraphs using it for WAR, but it's an easy barometer I guess). Baseball-reference doesn't use it for their pitchers WAR stats, they use run prevention as their barometer.

But yes, Dickey's ERA is obviously going to go up. But not because his FIP is higher than his ERA. But because no pitcher can sustain that type of ERA for a pro-longed period of time. Based on his peripheral statistics and the things the pitcher can control, it should go up to the 3 range anyway, which is about as good as you can ask for out of starting pitcher. 200 innings on a season though, you can certainly top it (pitchers do it every year). But overall 200 innings is actually a pretty small sample size. That's about 30-35 starts and you can have two horrible starts and it throw everything off. But just because a pitchers FIP doesn't match his ERA does it mean that pitcher has been lucky or unlucky or is destined to get better or worse. FIP doesn't account for men left on base, bast hits allowed, the amount of extra base hits a guy gives up, etc. It's nothing more than an individual skill statistic to monitor the skill level that the pitcher has produced. It isn't predictive. It is simply a skill statistic. If you were to trade for a pitcher, you would want something like FIP so you can see the type of quality skill set that pitcher has over the things that we know for a fact that he can control. And then you would build from that, like GB%, and other barometers that the pitcher might be able to control.

ERA isn't really at the pitchers control though.

A good example is Jair Jurrjens last year. He was carrying an unreal low ERA at this point last season. Braves fans everywhere were screaming Cy Young from him. But everything peripheral based, including his FIP, said he was getting insanely lucky. And he was. His LOB% was over 90%, and everything that he could control he wasn't doing that great. He was being taken out in the 6th inning after throwing 100 pitches, walking 3 guys, striking out 5, and giving up a lot of hits. But he would keep leaving the bases loaded and getting out of it. But he only had 90 innings pitched, it wasn't enough of a sample size.

At this point, you can tell that Dickey is having a great season, and he is in the discussion for best pitcher in the NL and even baseball this year. But he isn't clearly the best pitcher, and he has a lot of things that say he should regress every so slightly. If he wants to maintain what he is doing, he needs to....well....just keep doing it. Striking out a lot of guys, walking very few, and keeping the ball in the park. The things he can control, he has been doing, and in order to keep that success, he will need to keep doing that. His home run rate, his worst statistic, he has greatly improved over his last 5 starts. Doing that, and sustaining that will make him a good Cy Young candidate.

Nymfan87
06-22-2012, 10:29 PM
I've seen Dave Cameron say before that ERA and FIP are on the same scale. Also, you're basically trying not to use the word FIP when you say "things he can control." So because of his peripherals, basically the things that make up FIP, his ERA should climb. Is that not what you said?

And obviously, FIP does have its merits, like the JJ case that you mentioned. But it just doesn't make sense to me to use FIP for a knuckleballer, especially when his FIP is not that far behind his ERA, and his FIP has lagged behind his ERA for the last 3 years. FWIW, Phil Niekro's ERA for his career was 0.27 runs better than his FIP. Wakefield's was 0.31 better than his FIP. Joe Niekro's was 0.20 runs better than his FIP. Dickey won't pitch to the tune of a 2.00 ERA for the entire season, but so far, he has been the best pitcher in baseball this year.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 10:43 PM
I've seen Dave Cameron say before that ERA and FIP are on the same scale. Also, you're basically trying not to use the word FIP when you say "things he can control." So because of his peripherals, basically the things that make up FIP, his ERA should climb. Is that not what you said?

And obviously, FIP does have its merits, like the JJ case that you mentioned. But it just doesn't make sense to me to use FIP for a knuckleballer, especially when his FIP is not that far behind his ERA, and his FIP has lagged behind his ERA for the last 3 years. FWIW, Phil Niekro's ERA for his career was 0.27 runs better than his FIP. Wakefield's was 0.31 better than his FIP. Joe Niekro's was 0.20 runs better than his FIP. Dickey won't pitch to the tune of a 2.00 ERA for the entire season, but so far, he has been the best pitcher in baseball this year.

If your definition of the best pitcher in baseball is simply the guy that has done the best job of preventing runs, than Peavy and Verlander are your two best pitchers (they have been doing that the best). I don't think it's within the pitchers control to prevent runs necessarily. He needs his defense to help him.

If you want to discuss it via ERA, then you have Beachy and Dickey I guess. I think ERA is too far out of the pitchers control. Dickey isn't allowing guys to reach base off him though, which is huge.

But in terms of actual skill, hard to ignore what Greinke has been doing.

The thing is, even if Dickey is the best pitcher in baseball thus far this year. He isn't clearly the best, and only Mets fans have said he is. Nobody else seems to think so. And there are too many other guys that are right there next to him.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 10:49 PM
Dickey's babip is 30 points lower than it was the last two years. But why?

His line drive rate is the same, his ground ball rate is up 3%, that isn't enough of a jump to answer that question. All his batted ball stats are the same as the last two years.

He has improved his K rates while his BB% is the same. But that has nothing to do with babip. And home runs don't count on babip. So you can probably assume some regression on balls in play at some point as well.

He does have 4% more infield pop ups though :)

NYMETS2889
06-22-2012, 11:14 PM
No it doesn't, it has nothing to do with ERA. It is it's own independent statistic.

Multiply home runs by 13, multiply walks by 3, multiply strike outs by 2. Add answer of walks and home runs and subtract strike outs, divide by innings pitched, add 3.20.

It is not to predict ERA, it is used to show what the pitcher has earned based on the things he can control. Other things affect ERA, FIP is under the pitchers control. The things he has control over by himself that have nothing to do with the defense behind him. He controls his walks, his strike outs, and his home runs allowed and his innings pitched. He to some extent does control contact and ground balls etc. But it's still debatable how much they actually can control that.


Yes, it has nothing to do with runs allowed. It is telling you what the pitcher can control. He can't control if his shortstop can't make a play on a ground ball, or if his outfield can't catch a bloop single that scores two runs with two outs. The pitcher had no control over that happening, his defense did. That is why FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) has nothing to do with runs scored. Because a lot of runs scored are out of the pitchers control. And many times his defense can save his *** without him doing anything to earn that saving.




You are right, it is saying the first pitcher is better. The first pitcher looks like he pitched a better game but either gave up some timely hits, or everything landed against him.

Just look at what each pitchers babip would be (assuming no double plays or hbp). The first pitcher had to give up at least 6 hits, and probably several extra base hits. At the very best, his babip is .250. The second pitcher could have given up only one hit, the home run. and his babip could be as low as .100.

These two pitchers don't control what happens after the ball leaves the bat.



Well you seem to think it's predictive, and it isn't.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jpmoore/the-15-worst-types-of-sports-fans

see number 10 please

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 11:17 PM
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jpmoore/the-15-worst-types-of-sports-fans

see number 10 please

I will never be embarrassed by searching for the objective analysis in baseball

mtf
06-22-2012, 11:18 PM
People don't need to recite numbers here, a little common sense is all it takes. This list should be composed of Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver, Stephen Strasburg, and Felix Hernandez. Which of these players would you honestly want at the end of the season pitching for your team in a 1 championship game (assuming all are healthy).

R.A. Dickey is a great story, and he's having a great couple of months. However, if you had this discussion at this time a couple years ago, you'd probably think Ubaldo Jimenez was the best pitcher in baseball. Small sample sizes are often misleading.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 11:24 PM
People don't need to recite numbers here, a little common sense is all it takes. This list should be composed of Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver, Stephen Strasburg, and Felix Hernandez. Which of these players would you honestly want at the end of the season pitching for your team in a 1 championship game (assuming all are healthy).

R.A. Dickey is a great story, and he's having a great couple of months. However, if you had this discussion at this time a couple years ago, you'd probably think Ubaldo Jimenez was the best pitcher in baseball. Small sample sizes are often misleading.


Excellent post

NYMETS2889
06-22-2012, 11:27 PM
People don't need to recite numbers here, a little common sense is all it takes. This list should be composed of Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw, Jered Weaver, Stephen Strasburg, and Felix Hernandez. Which of these players would you honestly want at the end of the season pitching for your team in a 1 championship game (assuming all are healthy).

R.A. Dickey is a great story, and he's having a great couple of months. However, if you had this discussion at this time a couple years ago, you'd probably think Ubaldo Jimenez was the best pitcher in baseball. Small sample sizes are often misleading.

thats the thing though since he has joined the mets he has been one of baseballs best values-in 3 years on the mets (counting this year) he is 30-23 with a 2.86 ERA id hardly say he is a 2 month story just because no one else knew doesn't mean he hasn't been great just on a bad team

NYMETS2889
06-22-2012, 11:29 PM
I will never be embarrassed by searching for the objective analysis in baseball

its not meant to embarrass you-its meant to remind you there was a time before advanced statistics were constantly looked at-be real did your advanced stats have the cards winning last year? in 06? no they didn't they are good to look at but hardly a definitive argument there is more to the game then numbers

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 11:36 PM
thats the thing though since he has joined the mets he has been one of baseballs best values-in 3 years on the mets (counting this year) he is 30-23 with a 2.86 ERA id hardly say he is a 2 month story just because no one else knew doesn't mean he hasn't been great just on a bad team

With a FIP and xFIP more than a run greater than his ERA.

I understand the argument that knuckleballers are supposed to be better than their peripherals. But that's a little extreme.

Only John Cueto and Jeremy Hellickson are close (and Helly only has 300 innings since 2010).

Of the 120 qualifying pitchers, Dickey's 3.51 FIP is 31st, and his xFIP is 28th.

Maybe he is better than we have all thought, maybe.

Even in rWAR, which doesn't touch FIP at all, it's a run prevention value statistic, he is 12th, with a 10.0, and he is 3rd this year with a 3.5. His 132 ERA+, ties him for 17th with Cole Hamels.

Counting this year, his break out season, he is somewhere between the 10th and 30th best pitcher in my book. An ace, yes. One of the better pitchers in baseball? That's a stretch.

He was right btw, Ubaldo is a perfect mirror example from two seasons ago.

Ubaldo had an unreal first half of the season (15-1, 2.20 ERA) and he was coming off two Dickey like seasons in 08 and 09 (compares to Dickey's 10 and 11). And then he broke out.

Hopefully for the Mets and Dickey what happened to Ubaldo doesn't happen to Dickey. But the comparison is spot on

theLgndKllr35
06-22-2012, 11:37 PM
Verlander
Cain

Doesn't matter past this.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 11:40 PM
its not meant to embarrass you-its meant to remind you there was a time before advanced statistics were constantly looked at-be real did your advanced stats have the cards winning last year? in 06? no they didn't they are good to look at but hardly a definitive argument there is more to the game then numbers

Advanced stats should not be confused with predicting the future.

If you are going to say someone is the best pitcher in baseball, the objective analysis and statistics should certainly back that up, should they not?

silvTeg98
06-22-2012, 11:41 PM
jered weaver

Metsfan0791
06-22-2012, 11:47 PM
RA Dickey. I know he may not have the big game experience, or the resume, but this guy has balls. He will go out there and give it his all.. and probably confuse the crap out of everyone in that lineup with his knuckler. It's tough to pick him, but I will.

Tragedy
06-23-2012, 01:13 AM
Verlander and it's not even a little bit close.

Algmuskrats
06-23-2012, 02:06 AM
Cylander.

mtf
06-23-2012, 03:00 AM
thats the thing though since he has joined the mets he has been one of baseballs best values-in 3 years on the mets (counting this year) he is 30-23 with a 2.86 ERA id hardly say he is a 2 month story just because no one else knew doesn't mean he hasn't been great just on a bad team

I admit R.A. Dickey wasn't really on my radar before this year. So I just looked up his stats since you mentioned how great he was before this recent couple of months. His numbers while on the Mets (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dicker.01.shtml) were pretty good in 2010 and 2011, but not superstar caliber. He went from ERA's around 3.00 to 2.00, WHIPS of 1.20 to 0.89 and his K's/9 went from 5.6 to 9.4 this year.

I'm not saying he's going to flame out and be awful in the second half, but I am saying he's playing at a pace that is far better than what I'd expect from him in the future. Players like Strasburg, Verlander or Halladay are much more likely to maintain superstar numbers. Again, it's just an opinion.

******2017
06-23-2012, 04:06 AM
Dickey has been good. Strasburg is a special talent but right now I'm going with Cain because he has performed well in the post season. It's a tossup between Strasburg and Verlander for 2nd but I'd probably lean on the experience of Verlander even though he hasn't been all that great in the post season. My biggest beef with Strasburg is what happens to his stamina once he reaches his career high in innings pitched. Nobody knows if he'll be able to keep going or break down somehow.