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View Full Version : Is Starlin Castro a top 3 short stop in the MLB?



theguruisback3
06-21-2012, 12:53 PM
Simple question.

I vote no.

Jeffy25
06-21-2012, 12:55 PM
no

NY_Heartbreak
06-21-2012, 12:57 PM
1. Tulo
2. Jose Reyes
3a. Asdrubal Cabrera
3b. Starlin Castro

IMO

ilstubirds
06-21-2012, 12:58 PM
So this is just a Yes/No question with no list of who the 3 are and why?

That's simple then.

Yes.

long ball
06-21-2012, 01:00 PM
no

Chi~TwnHawksFan
06-21-2012, 01:01 PM
to me, and im a Cubs fan :clap: WOO, but anyways, to me he is on the fence of top 3. Simply because of his errors

Jamiecballer
06-21-2012, 01:17 PM
no absolutely not. he doesn't have the plate discipline or enough pop at this point in time.

theguruisback3
06-21-2012, 01:20 PM
Not enough pop in his bat? He hit 10 homers last year, and will hit around 15 this year. That's good enough for a SS.

I don' think he's top 10 but it has everything to do with his low OBP, not how much pop is in his bat.

VRP723
06-21-2012, 01:24 PM
Right now no, but he's damn good

CubbieSteve
06-21-2012, 01:24 PM
Not yet. Only 22, he'll hold his spot down for a long time soon enough.

sixers247
06-21-2012, 01:24 PM
^ Not top ten? Didn't make a list so you could be right but i think that's a little low.

theguruisback3
06-21-2012, 01:26 PM
^ Not top ten? Didn't make a list so you could be right but i think that's a little low.

I meant top 3, my fault.

sixers247
06-21-2012, 01:27 PM
Ok makes more sense lol.

ahoda
06-21-2012, 01:29 PM
Definitely not top 3, but has the potential to be there. I don't know if he will put it all together though.

RedHeadsRule
06-21-2012, 01:30 PM
Probably not.

Tulo belongs in his own category. I think Elvis is a little better now, but in their primes, I think Starlin will surpass because of his offensive upside. I'd probably also take Reyes and Asdrubal over him as well. So maybe 5th?

Pinstripe pride
06-21-2012, 01:35 PM
not yet

Mousedog332
06-21-2012, 01:36 PM
I say YES.
The even greater thing is he is only 22 years old. Hes going to be getting better. He will be the top SS in the MLB in a couple years.

Jeffy25
06-21-2012, 02:06 PM
Not enough pop in his bat? He hit 10 homers last year, and will hit around 15 this year. That's good enough for a SS.

I don' think he's top 10 but it has everything to do with his low OBP, not how much pop is in his bat.

That doesn't make him a top 3

He is 7th in home runs by shortstops in the last 2 seasons.

8th in WAR
7th in wOBA
7th in wRC+


He is on his way, he is possibly top 5. He is not top 3 yet.

Tulo, Reyes, Asdrubal are safely ahead of him. You could probably add Escobar and maybe Jhonny Peralta. In two years from now, I bet he is a top 3 though. Andrus and Furcal and Lowrie are all in the argument as well.

Pierzynski4Prez
06-21-2012, 02:28 PM
Needs to improve his defense which I'm sure over time he will.

Jeffy25
06-21-2012, 02:29 PM
This year he has improved his defense fwiw

northsider
06-21-2012, 03:01 PM
With his big defensive strides this year he moves that much close and one could argue him into there. However I put him in the top 5 at this point and fringe top 3. Castro is a super special talent and will easily soon be a top 3 guy IMO.

northsider
06-21-2012, 03:04 PM
Needs to improve his defense which I'm sure over time he will.


This year he has improved his defense fwiw

He has. The metrics like him but, even in his case the eye test is beyond belief in his transition this year. Far better footwork, his range is ridiculous, amazing arm, and literally his throws are on a rope to the chest this year. He showed flashes last year but, this year he looks a whole lot different and very very comfortable at the position. Actually last year in the second half he started to ease into the position as it seems he was just trying to do too much and not letting his natural talents do the work for him.

The arm accuracy this year has been impressive. The strength was always there though.

C-ross12
06-21-2012, 03:14 PM
As a cubs fan, hes not top 3 yet. But if he puts everything together he could be the best at SS in the game. He has a truly elite hit tool. Hopefully power and approach follow.

RowBTrice
06-21-2012, 03:18 PM
No, not yet.

Nymfan87
06-21-2012, 03:21 PM
I'd say he's behind Tulo, Reyes, Cabrera, and Andrus. If Lowrie can keep this up I'd say he's ahead of Castro, but for now I'd put Castro at 5.

harlequin018
06-21-2012, 03:34 PM
As future potential, he might be the second most valuable shortstop in the league behind Tulo. But because his defense is suspect, he ranks somewhere around the 5 spot. Tulo, Jose Reyes and Elvis Andrus are right now in a league of their own.

onlythisfar41
06-21-2012, 03:36 PM
No but hes great and still very young. Hes got more then enough time to cement himself in that category.

WOwolfOL
06-21-2012, 03:46 PM
People need to stop using errors as their indicators for bad defense. For one thing: he had 7 or 8 in the first month alone, and now has 12, which isn't a horrible number for a SS at this point. Just watch the guy in the field and you will see he has fantastic range and he's a lot, lot more fundamentally sound on footwork and the basic machinations of a SS. I hate the fact that he has a 2% walk rate as much as anybody but he should hit around 60 XBH this year, which is awesome for a 22 y/o SS.

I could honestly see him hitting 20 homers this year as the weather heats up. Add 25-30 (if he picks up the pace) doubles and 10 triples and that's a pretty nice batting line.

northsider
06-21-2012, 03:50 PM
Yeah the whole defense thing is being put to rest. Anyone who watched last year knew they were fixable mental errors and just him not being comfortable. He has been practically a completely different player on the field let alone he is still only 22 years old and made big strides in defense. I really think people are stuck on what they heard about him last year that I felt was over blown as well.

His defense is at a + this year and it's not by accident as it will prob. continue to be that way and get better.

WOwolfOL
06-21-2012, 04:05 PM
And I'm a big Andrus fan for his plate discipline but he is showing mediocre power to say the least. His ISO peak might be 125 or thereabouts.

metswon69
06-21-2012, 04:07 PM
Yeah he is certainly a top 3 potential talent, just needs to get his head in the game more.

He has some mental lapses at times but he is supremely talented.

waveycrockett
06-21-2012, 04:15 PM
I like starlin he is a good classic young short stop. Good range, great arm, contact hitter but he is never going to be on that level that Tulo, HanRam and Reyes were on.

HickCaesar
06-21-2012, 06:31 PM
My biggest problem with him is that he doesn't walk. That'll keep him from ever reaching Tulo levels of greatness. Well that and the power. Also he will have a hard time ever being as good of a fielder.

Tulo is awesome.

waveycrockett
06-21-2012, 06:37 PM
My biggest problem with him is that he doesn't walk. That'll keep him from ever reaching Tulo levels of greatness. Well that and the power. Also he will have a hard time ever being as good of a fielder.

Tulo is awesome.

Not just that but his defense isn't exactly world class either and he doesn't possess Reyes type speed either, I think he just is good at alot but not great at any one thing.

C-ross12
06-21-2012, 07:18 PM
My biggest problem with him is that he doesn't walk. That'll keep him from ever reaching Tulo levels of greatness. Well that and the power. Also he will have a hard time ever being as good of a fielder.

Tulo is awesome.

I think he will when he fills out some more. I actually think Castro will end up like Cano. Some of those singles he hits will start going for Homeruns. When that happens more frequently pitchers will start pitching him much more carefully.

1908_Cubs
06-21-2012, 07:27 PM
Yeah I don't think he's there yet. He's probably teetering on being a top 5 guy right now.

Going forward, as in, "future of the position" he's right up there with Tulo. And honestly, with the injuries he's been having, while he may never have the talent of Tulo, if he plays 150-155 games a year while Tulo plays 120, he may be more valuable if he can continue the defensive boost he's seen and can get the walks back up to around 5%. But that's a really long time in the future and not worth discussing yet as Tulo's clearly the best there is today.

1908_Cubs
06-21-2012, 07:28 PM
Not just that but his defense isn't exactly world class either and he doesn't possess Reyes type speed either, I think he just is good at alot but not great at any one thing.

Castro? Castro might have the single best hit tool in the league when it comes down to it. The guy makes unreal contact.

But you are correct, he doesn't possess Reyes speed. He doesn't have Tulo's power. He doesn't walk a ton. He doesn't have Ryan's defense. But none of those guys possess the contact-hit tool of Castro, either.

If there's anything that will make Castro great, it's his hit tool.

ParatroopersRus
06-21-2012, 07:30 PM
As long as Castro is a Cub he will never reach his true potential. Top 3 talent? Yes. But its whats between the ears that counts.

northsider
06-21-2012, 07:30 PM
Not just that but his defense isn't exactly world class either and he doesn't possess Reyes type speed either, I think he just is good at alot but not great at any one thing.

He is beyond great at hitting the ball and has a elite hit tool not many posses in the major leagues. He's 22 years old and has been handling ML pitching at a .300+ clip since he was 20. That's not good that is great.

C-ross12
06-21-2012, 07:33 PM
As long as Castro is a Cub he will never reach his true potential. Top 3 talent? Yes. But its whats between the ears that counts.

So he'd have to be traded to fulfil his potential? Is that what you're suggesting?

theLgndKllr35
06-21-2012, 07:36 PM
Nah, but you can make an argument for Top 5.

Top 4 are pretty much without question Tulo, Reyes, Andrus, Cabrera, but after that you can debate him for number 5.

1908_Cubs
06-21-2012, 07:49 PM
Nah, but you can make an argument for Top 5.

Top 4 are pretty much without question Tulo, Reyes, Andrus, Cabrera, but after that you can debate him for number 5.

Well....I agree he's not top 3. But could make an argument over Asdrubel.

2011:
Castro: 3.4 WAR
Cabrera: 3.6 WAR

2012:
Castro: 2.1 WAR
Cabrera: 2.3 WAR

As we all know, WAR isn't a science so .2 really doesn't mean much either way. Andrus, Reyes and Tulo all top Castro right now. However it's pretty much neck and neck between Cabrera and Castro for number 4, imo.

waveycrockett
06-21-2012, 07:51 PM
Castro? Castro might have the single best hit tool in the league when it comes down to it. The guy makes unreal contact.

But you are correct, he doesn't possess Reyes speed. He doesn't have Tulo's power. He doesn't walk a ton. He doesn't have Ryan's defense. But none of those guys possess the contact-hit tool of Castro, either.

If there's anything that will make Castro great, it's his hit tool.

I dont know about GREAT. Yeah I see him being a career .315-.320 hitter in his prime but again an OBP in the .350 because still because the guy never walks. I think he will be REALLY good, REALLY well rounded but I dont believe GREAT is a label I would apply. 4 WAR type player year in and out.

waveycrockett
06-21-2012, 07:53 PM
Well....I agree he's not top 3. But could make an argument over Asdrubel.

2011:
Castro: 3.4 WAR
Cabrera: 3.6 WAR

2012:
Castro: 2.1 WAR
Cabrera: 2.3 WAR

As we all know, WAR isn't a science so .2 really doesn't mean much either way. Andrus, Reyes and Tulo all top Castro right now. However it's pretty much neck and neck between Cabrera and Castro for number 4, imo.

I dont know if I can buy your argument. WAR says he isn't much worse so he is better?

the_jon
06-21-2012, 07:54 PM
Not right now but wouldn't be surprised if he's #1 or 2 in a few seasons

keymax
06-21-2012, 08:00 PM
UZR(unlike other metrics, at least not that drastic) hates Cabrera so his fWAR is a bit skewed. BR has Cabrera above Castro by a fair margin last year for example.

I am not a big believer in defensive metrics because of their tendency to fluctuate wildy, so by the good old eye test and every scouting report I read about Cabrera he is not the liability UZR makes him out to be.

WOwolfOL
06-21-2012, 08:09 PM
Andrus provides zero power, I really don't think he's clear-cut ahead of Castro personally.

Yankee Clipper
06-21-2012, 08:19 PM
Not right now, but he will likely get to that point shortly.

theLgndKllr35
06-21-2012, 09:29 PM
I dont know if I can buy your argument. WAR says he isn't much worse so he is better?

Pretty much my sentiments exactly. I think it would have been better if I had clarified the difference between 3 and 4 is far more so than the difference between 4 and 5.

bbcmillionaire
06-21-2012, 09:44 PM
As a cubs fan, not yet

1908_Cubs
06-21-2012, 10:25 PM
I dont know about GREAT. Yeah I see him being a career .315-.320 hitter in his prime but again an OBP in the .350 because still because the guy never walks. I think he will be REALLY good, REALLY well rounded but I dont believe GREAT is a label I would apply. 4 WAR type player year in and out.

In the last 2.5 years, only 9 players have more hits than him. This is with Castro having, essentially, 30 less games than anyone else considering he didn't come up until May. Albert Pujols trails him. Now, granted, part of this is because of a low walk total and I'm not using OBP here, I'm using flat out hit tool. And flat out hit tool, he's absolutely elite.

And you have to remember this as well: he's still the eighth youngest player in the MLB. During most of that, he was the youngest player in the MLB.

Yes. His hit tool makes him great. He's a 4 win player at age 22. Honestly, the sky is the limit here. He could very easily be a 6 win player in his prime.

1908_Cubs
06-21-2012, 10:28 PM
I dont know if I can buy your argument. WAR says he isn't much worse so he is better?

I didn't say he was better, did I? I said the argument can be made, and the OP claimed "no questions the top four was as follows". As we know with WAR, a .2 fluctuation means, essentially nothing. So it's silly to say one player is better because he's 4.1 WAR than another who is 3.9. Essentially, their value is the same.

Looking at WAR, they're .2 off from each other. Essentially, they are the same. Pretty easy concept to follow.

nirvana235
06-21-2012, 10:40 PM
Unbelievable people put so much stock into WAR, Brett Lawrie has 4 WAR according to baseball reference right now solely because of the shift.

Castro is going to be a star, a guy who can just flat out hit and being a SS is just even better. Most 22 year olds are in AA right now.

1908_Cubs
06-21-2012, 10:43 PM
Unbelievable people put so much stock into WAR, Brett Lawrie has 4 WAR according to baseball reference right now solely because of the shift.

Castro is going to be a star, a guy who can just flat out hit and being a SS is just even better. Most 22 year olds are in AA right now.

WAR isn't a science, it's just another quick reference tool and easily the best quick reference tool for a full player's body of work instead of just defense or just offense.. It's certainly got flaws it's just understanding the flaws inherent in the system. Things like: UZR tends to fluctuate at times, be careful how you use it, and, how WAR may not necessarily value wins exactly, but instead, should be used as a value tool.

I like it, just have to use it properly. Only reason I'm using it is to show that the gap between Castro and Cabrera isn't great, and that an argument simply could be made for Castro. Nothing more, really. Also, not attacking you, just further compounding your points really.

popo85
06-22-2012, 12:57 AM
Not right now, but he will likely get to that point shortly.

Agreed.

AlexGordon4
06-22-2012, 01:13 AM
being only 22 and the talent that he has i say yes

sexicano31
06-22-2012, 01:38 AM
I'm impressed with the cubs fans on this subject

Someone show this to CubDUK so he can come tell us how stupid we all are

HickCaesar
06-22-2012, 01:43 AM
I don't see him ever being as good as Tulo. Not drawing walks is something that really bugs me when we talk about true superstar players. Somebody like Andrew McCutchen seems like he's on a different level (yeah I know he plays a different position).

That being said, he's only 22, so he has a lot of room and time to improve. He'll certainly be a top 3 SS for a long time.

1908_Cubs
06-22-2012, 02:03 AM
I don't see him ever being as good as Tulo. Not drawing walks is something that really bugs me when we talk about true superstar players. Somebody like Andrew McCutchen seems like he's on a different level (yeah I know he plays a different position).

That being said, he's only 22, so he has a lot of room and time to improve. He'll certainly be a top 3 SS for a long time.

I think what will ultimately make him on Tulo's level is health. Tulo seems to, once a year, miss 6-8 weeks. To this point, Castro isn't just healthy, he plays almost every day.

On any given day, Tulo's probably going to always trump Castro. Throughout the course of a season, the extra 4-6 weeks will potentially put Castro above him on their given courses.

A lot of this is predicated on Castro's health, but I think if he's healthy and Tulo continues his injury woes of the last few seasons, there's a decent chance Castro trumps him on seasonal worth.

WOwolfOL
06-22-2012, 12:31 PM
Has Castro had a day off this year or are we still pushing him to break Cal's record? Lol

hoggin88
06-22-2012, 01:37 PM
Has Castro had a day off this year or are we still pushing him to break Cal's record? Lol

Every couple of months he gets benched for a game due to something stupid he does on the field. It's kind of a tradition.

hoggin88
06-22-2012, 01:42 PM
I'll be honest, as a lifelong diehard Cubs fan, I have very little confidence in Castro when he comes to the plate. He is constantly down 0-2 and he pretty much either swings at a ball outside the zone for a dribbler or magically loops one (still out of the zone) into the gap. Too much flailing. I really like Castro and want him to develop but I mean, come on, the guy has six walks this year. S-I-X!

His lack of plate discipline drives me absolutely crazy. Nevertheless, he is still close to a top 3 shortstop at this point and I'm still glad he's on the Cubs.

WOwolfOL
06-22-2012, 01:46 PM
Ha ha I wonder if anybody has ever had more triples than walks on a full season. This should be an interesting race.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 02:21 PM
Castro has 6 walks


He has 6 home runs
7 triples
has hit into 6 double plays
and has been caught stealing 8 times

6 walks is insane for 300 plate appearances

He has an ISOb of .13


He has a walk rate of 2% (obviously)

Only twice has a player had a lower walk rate in the last decade. Ivan Rodriguez and Tony Pena, both in 2007 were at 1.7% and 1.9% respectively Pudge had a .013 ISOb, Pena's was higher due to HBP. And both of them struck out less then Castro.

1903
06-22-2012, 02:34 PM
That's a clown question bro.

KingPosey
06-22-2012, 02:35 PM
I think he will when he fills out some more. I actually think Castro will end up like Cano. Some of those singles he hits will start going for Homeruns. When that happens more frequently pitchers will start pitching him much more carefully.

Maybe some of his doubles will start going as homeruns, but singles dont generally get the extra 200ft needed for a hr....

C-ross12
06-22-2012, 03:07 PM
Maybe some of his doubles will start going as homeruns, but singles dont generally get the extra 200ft needed for a hr....

He hits mistake pitches for singles.. I'm assuming as he fills out he'll start hitting mistakes for homeruns.

pacofunk64
06-22-2012, 03:21 PM
He's not quite there yet but he's getting closer. Once he learns better plate discipline his power numbers will go up. I've thought he compared to Jeter in many ways for a couple of years now. Numbers are very a like in many categories but again he is on his way to becoming a star.

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=522144

WOwolfOL
06-22-2012, 06:15 PM
Castro has 6 walks


He has 6 home runs
7 triples
has hit into 6 double plays
and has been caught stealing 8 times

6 walks is insane for 300 plate appearances

He has an ISOb of .13


He has a walk rate of 2% (obviously)

Only twice has a player had a lower walk rate in the last decade. Ivan Rodriguez and Tony Pena, both in 2007 were at 1.7% and 1.9% respectively Pudge had a .013 ISOb, Pena's was higher due to HBP. And both of them struck out less then Castro.

Has anyone ever had more triples than walks in the live ball era with 550 PA?

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 06:21 PM
Has anyone ever had more triples than walks in the live ball era with 550 PA?

Chief Wilson in 1912 is the only time that I can find, and that wasn't in the live ball era

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 11:12 PM
Has anyone ever had more triples than walks in the live ball era with 550 PA?

I went back and did an actual close search, since 1951

Gary Templeton 1979 - 18 BB, 19 3B
Gary Templeton 1977 - 15 BB, 18 3B

Surprisingly, a lot of people have gotten close too.

WOwolfOL
06-22-2012, 11:18 PM
Yea its really a hard thing to accomplish, as your research shows. Its one of those Jayson Stark statistical anomalies.

Jeffy25
06-22-2012, 11:20 PM
Yea its really a hard thing to accomplish, as your research shows. Its one of those Jayson Stark statistical anomalies.

I like looking for that sort of thing :)


I didn't mean for this, but Templeton is a lot more like Castro than Cubs fans would like to probably admit

I'm sure Castro will end up better, but when Templeton was 22, he looked an awful lot like Castro at 22.

Hopefully for the Cubs he doesn't turn out like Templeton though.

BcEuAbRsS
06-22-2012, 11:34 PM
No. I don't find him as "untouchable" as most Cubs fans... He has flaws in his game that don't look promising IMO...

Metsfan0791
06-22-2012, 11:50 PM
He CAN be, but he's not.

C-ross12
06-22-2012, 11:56 PM
I like looking for that sort of thing :)


I didn't mean for this, but Templeton is a lot more like Castro than Cubs fans would like to probably admit

I'm sure Castro will end up better, but when Templeton was 22, he looked an awful lot like Castro at 22.

Hopefully for the Cubs he doesn't turn out like Templeton though.

Yea I could see that. Castro's a bit bigger, so hopefully his power numbers come along. He will most certainly have to improve his approach to take steps foward with his hitting.

sager729
06-23-2012, 09:57 AM
People need to stop using errors as their indicators for bad defense. For one thing: he had 7 or 8 in the first month alone, and now has 12, which isn't a horrible number for a SS at this point. Just watch the guy in the field and you will see he has fantastic range and he's a lot, lot more fundamentally sound on footwork and the basic machinations of a SS. I hate the fact that he has a 2% walk rate as much as anybody but he should hit around 60 XBH this year, which is awesome for a 22 y/o SS.

I could honestly see him hitting 20 homers this year as the weather heats up. Add 25-30 (if he picks up the pace) doubles and 10 triples and that's a pretty nice batting line.

How much hotter do you want it to be? It has been as hot as it is going to get hopefully.

WOwolfOL
06-23-2012, 11:42 AM
That's probably true.

DR_1
06-23-2012, 05:05 PM
This is an obvious yes. He's firmly entrenched at that #3 spot IMO

SenorGato
06-23-2012, 09:18 PM
Probably is right now, but soon enough the #1 spot will be is. People make way too much out of this walks nonsense, particularly since he's been a 5% guy the vast majority of his time as an MLB player. He needs them to be an elite offensive player, but I'm not too worried about that in the long term.