PDA

View Full Version : is adam dunn hof?



Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 04:34 AM
while he has a'lot of k's just look at these stats!!!!

1363hits,388 homers and 974 rbis

gonna reach 400 this year and 1,000 rbis this year!!

has hit 30 or more homers 8 times,hit 40 four times and that will be 5 times after this year

if he reaches 2,000 hits it's a no doubter to me

natepro
06-16-2012, 04:38 AM
He's often underrated, but I think this would be overrating him.

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 04:43 AM
he's only 32!!
still a'lot of time to pad up those stats

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 04:46 AM
could reach 500 homers

The SF Giant
06-16-2012, 04:46 AM
I'll be shocked if he doesn't get in.

LASportsFan1996
06-16-2012, 04:52 AM
You Know At First I'd Say No... But Looking More & More At It He Just May Have A Shot, I Believe He'll Reach 500 Homers, He's Got A .500+ Career Slug%, Near .900 Career OPS.. And For A Guy Who K's A-Lot He Also Walks A-Lot, Obviously A-Lot Due To IBB But Still... I Just Might Change My Opinion And Say Yes He Get's In...

PhillyFaninLA
06-16-2012, 04:52 AM
Great power hitter nothing more. He is nothing special but good in his time.

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 04:58 AM
nothing special?

prob will reach 500 homers and 2,000 hits how many have did that?

has a way better chance than todd helton imho

LASportsFan1996
06-16-2012, 05:00 AM
For Me Helton Is DEF. In...

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 05:02 AM
coors will have a big factor!

what does he hit on the road?

Method28
06-16-2012, 05:04 AM
Has a hof had a year like he did last season?

Idk....Dunn to me was never great...had some good years. Short peak, one-dimensional player imo.

LASportsFan1996
06-16-2012, 05:07 AM
coors will have a big factor!

what does he hit on the road?

Home Career: .351/.448/.616 ... 216 HR
Road Career: .290/.390/.477 ... 138 HR

Still A Pretty Solid Road Career...

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 05:08 AM
can't knock because that year,big deal and new team always been in the nl

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 05:09 AM
yea but look at how big the diff is in ba and homers

Method28
06-16-2012, 05:20 AM
can't knock because that year,big deal and new team always been in the nl

Of course you can knock him for having one of the most horrific seasons ever

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 05:21 AM
i can answer back on that

who has hit 40 homers 5 times?

LASportsFan1996
06-16-2012, 05:24 AM
Of course you can knock him for having one of the most horrific seasons ever

:laugh2: I Agree...

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 05:27 AM
dunn>helton or abreu

LASportsFan1996
06-16-2012, 05:35 AM
IDK For Me Helton Is A Lock For HOF, But Dunn Is Borderline...

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 05:39 AM
coors will hurt him watch what i tell u

metswon69
06-16-2012, 05:41 AM
If Dunn hit's the magic number and over i don't see how he wouldnt be in....

He's probably gonna end up with 550 or more home runs in his career if he stays healthy and is consistent.

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 05:43 AM
thank you sir that's what i'm saying he had a awful year and still will get 500 homers

STL Don
06-16-2012, 05:52 AM
He just doesn't look like a Hall Of Fame type player. :shrug:

metswon69
06-16-2012, 05:53 AM
I mean the guy could legitimately put up another 3 40 homer seasons including this year considering his age.

That could mean by the end of his career he ends up with 9 40 homer years (and 2 with 38).

He also hit 40 homers 6 years in a row...

How many guys can say that?

I find a lot of comparisons between him and Jim Thome even though Thome has a much higher career batting average. I think Thome's a guaranteed HOF at 607 homers and counting and if Dunn gets anywhere close to that mark, how could you leave him out?

Dodgeloneyfan27
06-16-2012, 05:56 AM
i agree,i mean who has hit 40 homers like he has?

metswon69
06-16-2012, 06:02 AM
Do you guys realize that only 25 guys have hit 500 homers in their careers?

25 guys in the history of MLB, i don't know how you dont put him in if he gets there.

The steroid Era association might be the only thing holding him back but the truth is he's not connected to steroids like Sosa, Bonds, McGwire, Palmeiro and other guys were (at least not formally) so he shouldn't have that problem.

GrumpyOldMan
06-16-2012, 06:11 AM
I like Dunn, but it's tough getting in the HOF when you only do one thing great. Maybe if he gets to 600 like Thome, but he won't with 500 with his other stats and all those strikeouts. He has a long way to go in my opinion before he is HOF worthy.

metswon69
06-16-2012, 06:17 AM
I like Dunn, but it's tough getting in the HOF when you only do one thing great. Maybe if he gets to 600 like Thome, but he won't with 500 with his other stats and all those strikeouts. He has a long way to go in my opinion before he is HOF worthy.

Bill Mazeroski is in and did one thing great, that was being an outstanding fielding 2nd baseman.

I mean besides that the only other outstanding accomplishment he had was the 1960 WS winning home run against the Yankees.

Phil Rizzuto's is also in too and his only standout personal accomplishment is winning the MVP in 1950.

I am just saying there are guys in the Hall who were never great all around players but did one individual thing great.

bagwell368
06-16-2012, 06:54 AM
he's only 32!!
still a'lot of time to pad up those stats

I've been one of Dunn's biggest supporters on PSD for years - comparing him to Ichiro with the bat and Dunn is better production wise - clearly (not style wise).

But: Dunn's OF D is among the worst I've seen in 45 years. He's a plodding "base runner". Not a team leader. While he takes a lot of BB's and hits a lot of HR's if he got to say 510 career HR's I do not see him getting in. He'd have to get above 575 IMO, and that's not likely given his age and his physical condition.

If you use WAR, he's not even half way to being a HOF.

No.

bagwell368
06-16-2012, 06:56 AM
Do you guys realize that only 25 guys have hit 500 homers in their careers?

25 guys in the history of MLB, i don't know how you dont put him in if he gets there.

Tell me how many guys have gotten to 500 in the past 25? How many more still active? How many 1B/DH types (thankfully his OF days are passing out of collective memory) that are great hitters with no shot. HR and BB's are not everything.

bagwell368
06-16-2012, 06:59 AM
For Me Helton Is DEF. In...

Helton isn't even in the conversation. He's gotten a huge push from Coors. His power left him years ago. HE never won anything, and Larry walker was a far better player, with success before and outside of Coors and he's going to have a tough time getting in.

NO

GrumpyOldMan
06-16-2012, 07:00 AM
Mazeroski wasn't voted in. The veteran's committee let him in after his eligibility ran out. Like I said, I like Dunn, and if he becomes the best homerun hitter of his generation he will get in. If he doesn't get to that point though he will be like Dave Kingman. A great slugger who is just not HOF worthy. There is nothing wrong with that. The Hall of Fame is tough to get into.

Boston-Born
06-16-2012, 08:19 AM
I read the question fast and thought it asked if he was hot.

onlythisfar41
06-16-2012, 08:47 AM
Were getting to the point where 500 isnt an automatic in anymore. Prior to the last 25 years, it was very rare to get to 500 and therefore if you did you were guaranteed a spot in the hall. However now you see a new player every other year reach that mark and its taken away the magic of it.

Im in the camp that believes he needs to reach at least 575-600 to be considered to get in. Ive honestly never even thought about him having a chance to make it before this topic and I think theres something to be said for that. When you think of a HOF caliber player, generally they jump out at you when their name is mentioned.

If Dunn does get to the high 500's-600 then you would have to seriously consider it him even with the less then stellar rest of his game. There are just not enough players in the history of the game to hit that many and he should be awarded accordingly as a result.

fadedmario
06-16-2012, 10:20 AM
Last year pretty much makes it impossible. No HOFer ever had a season as horrendous as that, especially in their prime.

hoggin88
06-16-2012, 10:29 AM
Last year pretty much makes it impossible. No HOFer ever had a season as horrendous as that, especially in their prime.

I actually agree. Unless he goes ape **** for 6+ more years I don't see it happening because of that.

fadedmario
06-16-2012, 10:29 AM
He's killing this year though, that's for sure.

metswon69
06-16-2012, 10:40 AM
Mazeroski wasn't voted in. The veteran's committee let him in after his eligibility ran out. Like I said, I like Dunn, and if he becomes the best homerun hitter of his generation he will get in. If he doesn't get to that point though he will be like Dave Kingman. A great slugger who is just not HOF worthy. There is nothing wrong with that. The Hall of Fame is tough to get into.

The problem is that he will end up with considerably more home runs than Dave Kingman and Dave Kingman would have probably made it if he had gotten to 500 homers.

Hey, they have certain numbered criteria for a reason in baseball, and "500" is a magic number even if it has been tainted the last few years. If they hold true to that criteria he gets in regardless of the his other stats.

As for being voted in, technically he was, but yeah by the veteran's committee..

ManningToTyree
06-16-2012, 10:45 AM
This is why you can't just look at statistics. He is not a HOFer to me, and Helton is 10x the player Dunn has been.

metswon69
06-16-2012, 10:47 AM
Tell me how many guys have gotten to 500 in the past 25? How many more still active? How many 1B/DH types (thankfully his OF days are passing out of collective memory) that are great hitters with no shot. HR and BB's are not everything.

Yeah the last 20 years, you are talking 11 guys...

I understand that it possibly cheapens it a bit, but again a lot of those guys were loosely or directly connected to steroids. If the baseball writers accept that for the most part, that part of the game is over with the introduction of testing than it's gonna be hard to keep Dunn out if he gets pass the number.

Either that or they have to establish a cut off year, and decide stats before a certain time hold less weight than stats after 2004 for example when they originally started testing for HGH or establish a new "magic" number.

Mell413
06-16-2012, 10:47 AM
Assuming he gets to 500 and it doesn't take an empty stat line to get there I think he has a good shot. Guys like him don't age too well though so it could be an uphill battle for him. I get that his OF defense was bad, but it's hard for me to punish someone who was placed out of position.

quade36
06-16-2012, 01:55 PM
Come on people. This is another forum to say how much he sucks. Didn't we have enough of these pop up and get comments by cubs and tiger fans on how horrible he is and how he'll never rebound from last year? What was it, oh they said he'll be out of baseball in two years.

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 02:07 PM
No, and certainly not yet.

At his pace, he could find a way to hit 700 homers and still not be deserving.

Compare him to Jim Thome for a moment


Dunn - .243/.374/.506 - .376 wOBA, 127 wRC+
Thome - .277/.403/.556 - .406 wOBA, 145 wRC+ (4000 more plate appearances thus far)

If you are going to be an offensive player only, then you need to be one of the best hitters of your generation to get in. Beltran has been a better hitter than Dunn (and plenty of people don't think he is a hall of famer either and he played a good CF in his career). He will only get consideration for his counting stats, and that isn't enough, in fact, that's a terrible barometer.


And plenty of people are already on the fence about Thome, who is clearly deserving.

Dunn has a really long way to go to get to the hall. He would need to start posting Bonds like 01-04 type numbers for a few years to get there. He is the kind of player you would love to have on your team and fill a roll, but he isn't a hall of famer.

sexicano31
06-16-2012, 02:09 PM
He's often underrated, but I think this would be overrating him.

yes

sexicano31
06-16-2012, 02:10 PM
Great power hitter nothing more. He is nothing special but good in his time.

So a better version of Ryan Howard

rocket
06-16-2012, 02:10 PM
I don't think so.

utl768
06-16-2012, 02:11 PM
he should have no chance but in this day and age he will probably be voted in 10 years after he retires

sexicano31
06-16-2012, 02:11 PM
coors will have a big factor!

What does he hit on the road?

.290/.390/.477

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 02:14 PM
nothing special?

prob will reach 500 homers and 2,000 hits how many have did that?

has a way better chance than todd helton imho

And won't have 35 WAR lol.


How many players have done that?

Almost 300 guys have 2000 base hits in their big league careers


And ALL 24 500 home run members have 2000 base hits. You play long enough and have a solid enough career, you are going to get 2000 base hits, that isn't that big of an accomplishment. Doing it in 10-12 years would be (Pujols, Ichiro). If Dunn reaches 2000 hits, it's gonna take him another 5 seasons.


For Dunn to become a deserving hall of famer, he will need to literally double his career and play until his mid 40's.

His slash line with
with 776 home runs, 2726 base hits, 2230 walks, 3818 strike outs and almost 14,000 plate appearances.

There is no way he ever gets to a point where he is actually deserving of being in the hall of fame. He won't play long enough to get there, or he will have to drastically improve his current rate stats.

metswon69
06-16-2012, 02:26 PM
I still wonder if the magic number has any meaning anymore....

He's an interesting case Dunn because he is a lot like Dave Kingman, not great at anything else besides being a power hitter.

But he's going to end his career with a significantly more amount of home runs than Kingman most likely.

If the magic number has lost it's value he's not a HOF by any means, but it should be interesting to see when he retires.

sexicano31
06-16-2012, 02:28 PM
I still wonder if the magic number has any meaning anymore....

He's an interesting case Dunn because he is a lot like Dave Kingman, not great at anything else besides being a power hitter.

But he's going to end his career with a significantly more amount of home runs than Kingman most likely.

If the magic number has lost it's value he's not a HOF by any means, but it should be interesting to see when he retires.
It all depends whos voting when his time comes. Lets say he plays for 5 more years, that means hes eligible for the ballot in 10 years and that 10 years could mean that guys like Keith Law(example) have votes. Because of this, people like Dunn wont make it while people like Arod have a chance. If the old guys who LOOOOOVEEEE HR and RBI totals are still there then he has a shot

metswon69
06-16-2012, 02:30 PM
It all depends whos voting when his time comes. Lets say he plays for 5 more years, that means hes eligible for the ballot in 10 years and that 10 years could mean that guys like Keith Law(example) have votes. Because of this, people like Dunn wont make it while people like Arod have a chance. If the old guys who LOOOOOVEEEE HR and RBI totals are still there then he has a shot

Yeah if it's predominantly a newer school of voting, he has no chance.

No arguments there....

B'sCeltsPatsSox
06-16-2012, 02:33 PM
When I first read the title I thought it said "is Adam Dunn hot?" :laugh2:


But anyways, as of right now, no. He'll need some more great seasons to get in there

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 02:46 PM
It all depends whos voting when his time comes. Lets say he plays for 5 more years, that means hes eligible for the ballot in 10 years and that 10 years could mean that guys like Keith Law(example) have votes. Because of this, people like Dunn wont make it while people like Arod have a chance. If the old guys who LOOOOOVEEEE HR and RBI totals are still there then he has a shot

yup

nirvana235
06-16-2012, 03:14 PM
If Jim Rice is in, I don't see a reason to care about the HOF anymore.

Like Omar Visquel is going to make it...

It's a complete joke.

metswon69
06-16-2012, 03:39 PM
If Jim Rice is in, I don't see a reason to care about the HOF anymore.

Like Omar Visquel is going to make it...

It's a complete joke.

If Aparicio is in, Vizquel needs to be in.

You are talking 2 of the best defensive SS's of all time.

Jim Rice deserves to be in, he was one of the most dominant hitters in MLB from the late 70s till the late 80s, and he would have been in sooner if he didn't have such a terrible relationship with the media.

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 03:41 PM
If Aparicio is in, Vizquel needs to be in.

You are talking 2 of the best defensive SS's of all time.

Jim Rice deserves to be in and he would have been in sooner if he didn't have such a terrible relationship with the media.

Aparacio was a little better defensively, they were the same offensively.

But Aparacio shouldn't be in either. Ozzie is the only all defensive shortstop that belongs in. And that's because he DESTROYED everybody but Mark Belanger defensively at short, and Belanger only played half as many innings. And because Ozzie played long enough and average enough offense that he actually is there with other hall of famers in positive runs for his team and wins earned.

As for Jim Rice, no way. He should never have even gotten close. He isn't even close to being deserving.

nirvana235
06-16-2012, 03:44 PM
If Aparicio is in, Vizquel needs to be in.

You are talking 2 of the best defensive SS's of all time.

Jim Rice deserves to be in, he was one of the most dominant hitters in MLB from the late 70s till the late 80s, and he would have been in sooner if he didn't have such a terrible relationship with the media.

All I can say is :facepalm:.

ManRam
06-16-2012, 03:47 PM
All time ranks:

225th in OBP
83rd in SLG
96th in OPS
195 in OPS+
73rd in walks
8th in Ks (could break the all time record)

A really good power hitter, but one of the absolute all time bests? I guess strictly in terms of HRs, and his 14.5 AB per HR rate is pretty impressive (8th best ever)...but everything else suggests he's more fit for the Hall of Very Good rather than the Hall of Fame. Plus, he is easily one of the worst defensive players ever.

He's got some work to do...and if he gets in, it will only be because of that magical 500 number.

metswon69
06-16-2012, 03:47 PM
Aparacio was a little better defensively, they were the same offensively.

But Aparacio shouldn't be in either. Ozzie is the only all defensive shortstop that belongs in. And that's because he DESTROYED everybody but Mark Belanger defensively at short, and Belanger only played half as many innings. And because Ozzie played long enough and average enough offense that he actually is there with other hall of famers in positive runs for his team and wins earned.

As for Jim Rice, no way. He should never have even gotten close. He isn't even close to being deserving.

Seems the HOF writers and Veteran's committee appreciates great defense when it comes to putting in guys like Mazeroski, Aparacio, Rizzuto, etc etc.

Offensively i can't justify any of those guys being in but the criteria is different for middle infielders considering they were no thought of as overly offensive positions.

metswon69
06-16-2012, 03:49 PM
All I can say is :facepalm:.

What :facepalm:?

Jim Rice is a HOF...

You can argue Vizquel and i don't agree with great defense being a qualification for the HOF but if they are gonna put in Aparacio then you have to at least consider Vizquel.

nirvana235
06-16-2012, 03:51 PM
Aparacio, there's an argument for because he played in an era where shortstops couldn't hit. I still don't think he should be in though... Ozzie on the other hand was head and shoulders above everyone else defensively.

Visquel played in an era where shortstops could actually hit so there's no way he should be in the HOF

metswon69
06-16-2012, 03:55 PM
Aparacio, there's an argument for because he played in an era where shortstops couldn't hit. I still don't think he should be in though... Ozzie on the other hand was head and shoulders above everyone else defensively.

Visquel played in an era where shortstops could actually hit so there's no way he should be in the HOF

Again i don't think predominantly great defensive players who have little offensive value should be in either but the HOF feels differently.

As for Rice, he would have been in sooner if it wasn't for his terrible relationship with the media.

nirvana235
06-16-2012, 03:58 PM
Again i don't think predominantly great defensive players who have little offensive value should be in either but the HOF feels differently.

As for Rice, he would have been in sooner if it wasn't for his terrible relationship with the media.

Rice might be a HOFer in voter's eyes but his numbers are not nearly HOF worthy.

Vandelay16
06-16-2012, 04:11 PM
Hell, if he stays healthy long enough he could hit 600 HR

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 04:18 PM
Aparacio, there's an argument for because he played in an era where shortstops couldn't hit. I still don't think he should be in though... Ozzie on the other hand was head and shoulders above everyone else defensively.

Visquel played in an era where shortstops could actually hit so there's no way he should be in the HOF

Aparacio and Vizquel both have an OPS+ of 82.

That's park and league adjusted, including era

Pujolsfan91
06-16-2012, 04:22 PM
I read the question fast and thought it asked if he was hot.

As did I :facepalm:

1903
06-16-2012, 04:24 PM
Dunn should get in for his nickname.

bagwell368
06-16-2012, 05:12 PM
I still wonder if the magic number has any meaning anymore....

He's an interesting case Dunn because he is a lot like Dave Kingman, not great at anything else besides being a power hitter.

But he's going to end his career with a significantly more amount of home runs than Kingman most likely.

If the magic number has lost it's value he's not a HOF by any means, but it should be interesting to see when he retires.

Different era....

Let's look at neutralized batting:

Dunn: .239/.369/.499

Kingm:.244/.313/.495

Dunn takes more walks. Good.

It says Kingman would have 477 HR's and Dunn 381 - but Dunn is 944 PA's behind Kingman.98 HR's to catch up in 944 PA's? Don't think so.

Plus Dunn will be declining and wrecking his slash numbers as well.

Kingman had no support for the HOF, Dunn won't either. He's not getting to 600.

bagwell368
06-16-2012, 05:13 PM
Rice might be a HOFer in voter's eyes but his numbers are not nearly HOF worthy.

I saw more of Rice than any PSD poster and he's not a HOF'er. Dwight Evans was a better player, Reggie Smith too.

metswon69
06-16-2012, 05:30 PM
Different era....

Let's look at neutralized batting:

Dunn: .239/.369/.499

Kingm:.244/.313/.495

Dunn takes more walks. Good.

It says Kingman would have 477 HR's and Dunn 381 - but Dunn is 944 PA's behind Kingman.98 HR's to catch up in 944 PA's? Don't think so.

Plus Dunn will be declining and wrecking his slash numbers as well.

Kingman had no support for the HOF, Dunn won't either. He's not getting to 600.

Yeah well that's why i wasn't sure myself because i guess it really comes down to the generation of baseball writers who have the vote for the Hall Of Fame.

With all the advanced statistics out there and even just the stuff that's on the back of a baseball card, he's not a HOF.

But if "500" is still the magic number to even this generation of baseball writers, he's in... Isn't he?

And the other question is what stats of Dunn's are considered pre steroid era and post steroid era? I mean you have to say he's been overly consistent when it comes to the power numbers so i don't see steroids being an issue in reference to his career.

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 05:36 PM
75% of the voters won't care about the 'magic number'

Havoc Wreaker
06-16-2012, 05:36 PM
So we went from Adam Dunn is done to HoF in a couple of months? :laugh2:

It was funny when people thought he was done and should retire

gmanthree15
06-16-2012, 05:57 PM
If McGwire ever gets in the HOF then Dunn should. The only difference between them is that McGwire juiced. Dunn hits just as many HRs, strikes out just as much, and walks just as much as McGwire if you regress McGwire's numbers back towards none juicing cheating trash numbers.

majestic
06-16-2012, 06:07 PM
well considering he is horrendous in the field and played in the n.l. almost his whole career. no

Ty Fast
06-16-2012, 07:44 PM
no

LOOTERX9
06-16-2012, 08:50 PM
nope

bagwell368
06-16-2012, 09:28 PM
Jim Rice deserves to be in, he was one of the most dominant hitters in MLB from the late 70s till the late 80s, and he would have been in sooner if he didn't have such a terrible relationship with the media.

No way. He had his last elite year at age 26. He didn't take walks. He was a meh fielder that also DH'd a fair amount. He was NOT NOT the best hitter of his time. In fact his 5 year peak is one of the weakest since 1950 for a "HOF" player at the hitting positions: 1B/LF/RF/DH

Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Eddie Muarry were all better. Others were better that didn't overlap as much.

He started off great and got the press for that, but his eyes went early, his career was short, he wasn't a leader or a winner. He was a surly jerk most of his career, one of the "leaders" of the 25 player, 25 cabs Red Sox of his time. I bet I saw over 900 of his games - at least 50 live. No.

bagwell368
06-16-2012, 09:32 PM
Yeah well that's why i wasn't sure myself because i guess it really comes down to the generation of baseball writers who have the vote for the Hall Of Fame.

With all the advanced statistics out there and even just the stuff that's on the back of a baseball card, he's not a HOF.

But if "500" is still the magic number to even this generation of baseball writers, he's in... Isn't he?

And the other question is what stats of Dunn's are considered pre steroid era and post steroid era? I mean you have to say he's been overly consistent when it comes to the power numbers so i don't see steroids being an issue in reference to his career.

No, Dunn is almost as much a parody as he is a player. Putting him in the HOF would IMO seem to debase that HOF. He doesn't get in on style points, 5 tool points, or value arguments. He's merely a productive hitter that you must play at DH or 1B. He's probably been in the top 35 for oWAR at least 7 times in his career, but he's probably never been in the top 17. So he's not a great in his own time, just a well above average bat that can't do anything else but walk well.

Driven
06-16-2012, 09:37 PM
I'll be shocked if he doesn't get in.
I'm shocked that you would be shocked.

Driven
06-16-2012, 09:39 PM
yea but look at how big the diff is in ba and homers
Production is production. And you have no idea how the splits affected him. Just because he hits better at home, doesn't mean it was because of Coors. Most players play much better at home, anyways.

Dunn played in a bandbox, too.

bagwell368
06-16-2012, 09:47 PM
I wrote this here in 2009:

[Rice is] An animal? Yeah, an animal for GDIP maybe.

In his career Rice's offense (EQR - runs created) + his defense was:

1367 + -55 = 1312 runs / 2089 games = .628 runs/game

Evans:

1606 + +66 = 1672 runs / 2606 games = .642 runs/game

So in a career that had 517 more games, and 2.2% more productive for Evans, somehow everyone forgot him, and you want to elevate Rice to the HOF when his team mate was a better player for longer? Please.

As for the best of his era - please...

During his years (at least a handfull at the same time) here are guys that were better, or at least better at their position, then Rice at his:

Jackson, Carew, Brett, Fisk, Lynn, Evans, Molitor, Yount, Grich, Murray, RH, Trammell, Boggs, Ripken, Winfield, Puckett

others of note:

McRae, Bostock, Singelton, Hisle, Baylor, Oliver, Mattingly

Rice had a crappy .352 career OBP, and a meager 128 OPS+ in LF/DH. At 3B or CF these are big stats but for a LF? Nuh Unh...

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 09:47 PM
If McGwire ever gets in the HOF then Dunn should. The only difference between them is that McGwire juiced. Dunn hits just as many HRs, strikes out just as much, and walks just as much as McGwire if you regress McGwire's numbers back towards none juicing cheating trash numbers.

That and.....McGwire was a way better hitter.

McGwire .415 wOBA, 157 wRC+, .263/.394/.588

Dunn is lower in all 5 offensive rate statistics by a good margin....oh and oWAR, and all other offensive statistics. They don't compare at all.


And McGwire struck out less (20% to 28%) and walked more (17% to 16%)

They don't compare in any way other than both being power hitters, and McGwire was a much better power hitter (.263 to .325 ISO)

It's a laughable comparison, Dunn is no where near McGwire, roids or not.

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 09:51 PM
I wrote this here in 2009:

[Rice is] An animal? Yeah, an animal for GDIP maybe.

In his career Rice's offense (EQR - runs created) + his defense was:

1367 + -55 = 1312 runs / 2089 games = .628 runs/game

Evans:

1606 + +66 = 1672 runs / 2606 games = .642 runs/game

So in a career that had 517 more games, and 2.2% more productive for Evans, somehow everyone forgot him, and you want to elevate Rice to the HOF when his team mate was a better player for longer? Please.

As for the best of his era - please...

During his years (at least a handfull at the same time) here are guys that were better, or at least better at their position, then Rice at his:

Jackson, Carew, Brett, Fisk, Lynn, Evans, Molitor, Yount, Grich, Murray, RH, Trammell, Boggs, Ripken, Winfield, Puckett

others of note:

McRae, Bostock, Singelton, Hisle, Baylor, Oliver, Mattingly

Rice had a crappy .352 career OBP, and a meager 128 OPS+ in LF/DH. At 3B or CF these are big stats but for a LF? Nuh Unh...
And you are a Red Sox fan lol.

That's how obvious it is

iam brett favre
06-16-2012, 11:00 PM
has a way better chance than todd helton imho

Wait...What? :laugh:

Jeffy25
06-16-2012, 11:04 PM
nothing special?

prob will reach 500 homers and 2,000 hits how many have did that?

has a way better chance than todd helton imho

No way.

Helton is borderline in at this point.

A fantastic hitter. Like whoa a great hitter, even on the road. Coors helped him, but not to the point that is all his offensive value.


In what way has Helton been better than Dunn?

SACNYY
06-16-2012, 11:46 PM
No.

iam brett favre
06-17-2012, 12:41 AM
No way.

Helton is borderline in at this point.

A fantastic hitter. Like whoa a great hitter, even on the road. Coors helped him, but not to the point that is all his offensive value.


In what way has Helton been better than Dunn?

Wait. So are you arguing for or against Helton? Because if anyone thinks that Helton isn't a sure fire, 1st ballot HOF they aren't very smart.

sexicano31
06-17-2012, 12:56 AM
No way.

Helton is borderline in at this point.

A fantastic hitter. Like whoa a great hitter, even on the road. Coors helped him, but not to the point that is all his offensive value.


In what way has Helton been better than Dunn?

RBI bro, RBI

SportsNY
06-17-2012, 01:04 AM
nothing special?

prob will reach 500 homers and 2,000 hits how many have did that?

has a way better chance than todd helton imho

WHAT?!:speechless:

Adam Dunn is a career .243 hitter, while Todd Helton is a career .321 hitter.

iam brett favre
06-17-2012, 01:05 AM
RBI bro, RBI

Not the 90+ point difference in OPS? Or the 40 point difference in OBP? Or the 40 point difference in SLG? Or the, although irrelevant to you but certainly not hall of fame voters, 70 point difference in BA?

sexicano31
06-17-2012, 01:09 AM
Not the 90+ point difference in OPS? Or the 40 point difference in OBP? Or the 40 point difference in SLG? Or the, although irrelevant to you but certainly not hall of fame voters, 70 point difference in BA?

That entire last post did not click with me. Just disregard what I said. Btw, whoever said I disregard BA?


Edit: Wait a minute...what the **** is going on in that post

dodgerdave
06-17-2012, 02:39 PM
That and.....McGwire was a way better hitter.

McGwire .415 wOBA, 157 wRC+, .263/.394/.588

Dunn is lower in all 5 offensive rate statistics by a good margin....oh and oWAR, and all other offensive statistics. They don't compare at all.


And McGwire struck out less (20% to 28%) and walked more (17% to 16%)

They don't compare in any way other than both being power hitters, and McGwire was a much better power hitter (.263 to .325 ISO)

It's a laughable comparison, Dunn is no where near McGwire, roids or not.

McGwire's slash stats were only .244/.351/.488 through his 1991 season, which is comparable to Dunn's current .243/.374/.506 line. Big Mac had to juice up in order to save his career after his bad 1991 season.

Jeffy25
06-17-2012, 02:40 PM
Wait. So are you arguing for or against Helton? Because if anyone thinks that Helton isn't a sure fire, 1st ballot HOF they aren't very smart.

He isn't a sure fire first ballot hall of famer, but he is borderline in and deserves to go in, especially if he can post a couple more decent seasons.

VRP723
06-17-2012, 02:58 PM
Helton is one of if not the most underrated player from this era. A lot of people play in Coors. No one does so as well as he does. (Except Larry Walker)

agureghian
06-17-2012, 03:08 PM
you realize his life time batting average is .243 right?


If Fred McGriff doesnt get in, Dunn doesnt. 493 homers with a .284 BA.

Jeffy25
06-17-2012, 03:18 PM
McGwire's slash stats were only .244/.351/.488 through his 1991 season, which is comparable to Dunn's current .243/.374/.506 line. Big Mac had to juice up in order to save his career after his bad 1991 season.


In 91, McGwire was 27, just starting to hit his peak hitting age. Roids or not.


Dunn is 32, at the end of his peak, and his slash line doesn't even compare to McGwire through his entire career, pre and post peak years.

ATL#22
06-17-2012, 04:24 PM
In 2008 he hit 236/386/513 in 158 games and had a .9 WAR. That is some impressively bad D.

ATL#22
06-17-2012, 04:27 PM
Helton is one of if not the most underrated player from this era. A lot of people play in Coors. No one does so as well as he does. (Except Larry Walker)

This. He still had a .397 away OBP.

KingPosey
06-17-2012, 04:33 PM
could reach 500 homers

He will easily reach 500, the question is does he have enough to get to 600?

gmanthree15
06-17-2012, 04:54 PM
That and.....McGwire was a way better hitter.

McGwire .415 wOBA, 157 wRC+, .263/.394/.588

Dunn is lower in all 5 offensive rate statistics by a good margin....oh and oWAR, and all other offensive statistics. They don't compare at all.


And McGwire struck out less (20% to 28%) and walked more (17% to 16%)

They don't compare in any way other than both being power hitters, and McGwire was a much better power hitter (.263 to .325 ISO)

It's a laughable comparison, Dunn is no where near McGwire, roids or not.

He was better because he cheated. McGwire is no where near as naturally as big as Dunn. That's why he is walking around like a stick at 220lbs now that he no longer needs to ruin the game. Dunn matches all of McGwire's numbers if he was as willing to defraud the game as McGwire did.

DLCK
06-17-2012, 04:59 PM
If he was a Yankee Cub Red sox or Cardinal for most of his career he would be a 1st ballot already but since hes not so it will be up for debate.

Jeffy25
06-17-2012, 08:43 PM
He was better because he cheated. McGwire is no where near as naturally as big as Dunn. That's why he is walking around like a stick at 220lbs now that he no longer needs to ruin the game. Dunn matches all of McGwire's numbers if he was as willing to defraud the game as McGwire did.

McGwire does have the rookie record for homers in a season....49...he was 23 and was 6'5, 205 pounds then.

Dunn is country strong certainly. But I find it too subjective to argue when baseball players started cheating. But McGwire was a significantly more productive hitter in his career than Dunn.

cambovenzi
06-17-2012, 08:55 PM
Can I be in the hall of fame too?

eibbor
06-17-2012, 09:26 PM
You Know At First I'd Say No... But Looking More & More At It He Just May Have A Shot, I Believe He'll Reach 500 Homers, He's Got A .500+ Career Slug%, Near .900 Career OPS.. And For A Guy Who K's A-Lot He Also Walks A-Lot, Obviously A-Lot Due To IBB But Still... I Just Might Change My Opinion And Say Yes He Get's In...

Capitalizing every word not only makes your post lame, but also invalid.

WadeKobe
06-18-2012, 03:16 AM
I mean the guy could legitimately put up another 3 40 homer seasons including this year considering his age.

That could mean by the end of his career he ends up with 9 40 homer years (and 2 with 38).

He also hit 40 homers 6 years in a row...

How many guys can say that?

I find a lot of comparisons between him and Jim Thome even though Thome has a much higher career batting average. I think Thome's a guaranteed HOF at 607 homers and counting and if Dunn gets anywhere close to that mark, how could you leave him out?

The dude only has 26 WAR, .376 wOBA, and 127 wRC+. Those simply are not HoF numbers. Other than hitting home runs and walking, he didn't provide a lot of value doing other things throughout his career.

Thome was much more productive with both the stick and the glove throughout his career, as were every other player with many 40+ HR seasons who is in or will get into the hall.

Adam Dunn is in the Hall of Very Good. No chance he gets into the Hall of Fame.

WadeKobe
06-18-2012, 03:22 AM
No way.

Helton is borderline in at this point.

A fantastic hitter. Like whoa a great hitter, even on the road. Coors helped him, but not to the point that is all his offensive value.


In what way has Helton been better than Dunn?

I think you mean to say in what way has Dunn been better than Helton?

Helton has been better than done in almost every way....

Jeffy25
06-18-2012, 03:25 AM
I think you mean to say in what way has Dunn been better than Helton?

Helton has been better than done in almost every way....

Yeah, last sentence was in the wrong order lol.

Helton > Dunn

Pinstripe pride
06-18-2012, 08:36 AM
i doubt dunn gets in

metswon69
06-18-2012, 08:46 AM
The dude only has 26 WAR, .376 wOBA, and 127 wRC+. Those simply are not HoF numbers. Other than hitting home runs and walking, he didn't provide a lot of value doing other things throughout his career.

Thome was much more productive with both the stick and the glove throughout his career, as were every other player with many 40+ HR seasons who is in or will get into the hall.

Adam Dunn is in the Hall of Very Good. No chance he gets into the Hall of Fame.

The Baseball HOF is certainly not the NFL HOF (which is a real joke), but there are still players that were very good and not great in the baseball HOF.

All i am saying is 500 home runs used to guarantee you entrance into the HOF, just like 300 wins, and 3,000 hits. It didn't matter what the player's other statistics were or what position he played.

It's a matter of whether HOF voters still believe 500 home runs (without the player having a connection to steroids) guarantee a player's acceptance.

With the newer school of voters and the devaluing of the home run (when home runs were hit during the steroid era), yeah i can't argue he's hard to make a case for.

bagwell368
06-18-2012, 09:40 AM
Helton is borderline in at this point.

A fantastic hitter. Like whoa a great hitter, even on the road. Coors helped him, but not to the point that is all his offensive value.

We agree a large majority of the time, but not on this:

TH Home: .351/.448/.616 OPS+: 155

155? Thats #22-24 on the all time list. Aaron, DiMaggio, Ott - is anybody going to claim that's who he is?

TH Road: .290/.390/.477 OPS+: 115

115? That's #500-#515 on the list. Carlos Lee, Gus Zernial, and Amos Otis

TH's current OPS+ is 135 - that's Al Kaline, George Brett, and Brian Giles. But that is NOT Helton either. Helton's 135 career OPS+ is 20 points over his road number, the average ML hitter of his time is about 4 % (or points) better at home then the road. So what Helton really is a 119 OPS+ guy who had a very fine 6 year peak, that's lost his power (last 7 years (not inc '12): 20, 15, 17, 07, 15, 08, 14) and lost lots of games to injury (only 3 of last 4 years did he play a full season) that can hit for average and take walks. I.E. he went from near Albert to Mark Grace.

Helton never won anything and has done not much in MVP voting. Helton's post season slash also sucks: .211/.303/.281 in 66 PA's. He's also been out shined by a goodly degree over the past 25 years by more elite, more healthy, and more productive (outside of his freak home parks) 1B men. He doesn't belong in the HOF by position break down, or much else but the pumped up Coors stats.

He's clearly better then Dunn, and more deserving then Jim Rice - but that's faint praise. Larry Walker, Alan Trammell, Jeff Bagwell, Dwight Evans, and maybe even Jim Wynn and another 16+ guys have a better argument then Helton. Borderline - out.

Heatcheck
06-18-2012, 10:20 AM
no more deserving than biggio, and i think biggio is borderlne.

NYflightboy
06-18-2012, 10:30 AM
Dunn is not HOFer and neither is Helton. Jim Thome? Yes.

adab
06-18-2012, 11:14 AM
No. The only player currently in the HOF that MIGHT compre with Dunn is Reggie Jackson, but the number of WS rings, awards Reggie won is infinitely more than Dunn.
Plus, in the steroid era, hitting 400 or 500 HRs is not that impressive. Not saying that Dunn took steroids, PED, etc.. Just no way of difinitively knowing.

Bos_Sports4Life
06-18-2012, 12:03 PM
no more deserving than biggio, and i think biggio is borderlne.

I think of Biggio as a slam dunk...

* 3,000+ hits (21st all time)

* 14th all time in runs

* 31st all time in extra base hits

* 43rd all time in offensive WAR

* 4 silver sluggers/4 gold gloves

I think his counting stats alone get him in...

Bos_Sports4Life
06-18-2012, 12:07 PM
No. The only player currently in the HOF that MIGHT compre with Dunn is Reggie Jackson, but the number of WS rings, awards Reggie won is infinitely more than Dunn.
Plus, in the steroid era, hitting 400 or 500 HRs is not that impressive. Not saying that Dunn took steroids, PED, etc.. Just no way of difinitively knowing.

I think Jackson EASILY beats out dunn with #'s alone..

Dunn would need 175 more homers to catch up (not happening) and even if he comes close his rate stats will fall even further behind.

Jeffy25
06-18-2012, 01:25 PM
We agree a large majority of the time, but not on this:

TH Home: .351/.448/.616 OPS+: 155

155? Thats #22-24 on the all time list. Aaron, DiMaggio, Ott - is anybody going to claim that's who he is?

TH Road: .290/.390/.477 OPS+: 115

115? That's #500-#515 on the list. Carlos Lee, Gus Zernial, and Amos Otis

TH's current OPS+ is 135 - that's Al Kaline, George Brett, and Brian Giles. But that is NOT Helton either. Helton's 135 career OPS+ is 20 points over his road number, the average ML hitter of his time is about 4 % (or points) better at home then the road. So what Helton really is a 119 OPS+ guy who had a very fine 6 year peak, that's lost his power (last 7 years (not inc '12): 20, 15, 17, 07, 15, 08, 14) and lost lots of games to injury (only 3 of last 4 years did he play a full season) that can hit for average and take walks. I.E. he went from near Albert to Mark Grace.

Helton never won anything and has done not much in MVP voting. Helton's post season slash also sucks: .211/.303/.281 in 66 PA's. He's also been out shined by a goodly degree over the past 25 years by more elite, more healthy, and more productive (outside of his freak home parks) 1B men. He doesn't belong in the HOF by position break down, or much else but the pumped up Coors stats.

He's clearly better then Dunn, and more deserving then Jim Rice - but that's faint praise. Larry Walker, Alan Trammell, Jeff Bagwell, Dwight Evans, and maybe even Jim Wynn and another 16+ guys have a better argument then Helton. Borderline - out.

I think that is too abusive for the ballpark personally. You should look at what all Rockies hitters have hit since 93 on the road and at home.

All Rockies hitters since 93:
Home: .294/.366/.480 - .365 wOBA, 110 wRC+
Road: .241/.313/.380 - .304 wOBA, 70 wRC+

We are talking 66,000 plate appearances too. This year again, the Rockies are the best offensive team at home, and the second worst offensive team outside of Coors.

And you can't use statistics like that, some players are going to be better home hitters than road hitters throughout their careers. Just a random example, Grady Sizemore, neutral park, has .30 points better wOBA at home than on the road in his career. Some players are going to do that. Helton is one of the only Rockies to ever hit outside of Coors field, he and Larry Walker. You can't just say, okay, here are the road numbers, let's adjust 4%.

Something extreme happens when the Rockies leave Colorado, this is the biggest home/road split of any team in baseball history min 10,000 plate appearances.

The 135 is already park adjusted, he is about 35% above the league average hitter throughout his career. I think he is unfairly treated for having a friendly home ballpark. It's good that people are aware of the affects of Coors, but you can't completely cut out a players home numbers and look at their road numbers and say that's the hitter they would be elsewhere, that's ignoring literally half the games the player has played. You giving Helton a 119 OPS+, that is a slash line of .280/.365/.465. Helton is far better hitter than that, considering he is a career .321/.419/.547 hitter, even if inflated in Coors, all his park adjusted numbers show him to be hall of fame level hitter.

He is still a .290/.390/.477 hitter on the road, that's still Bobby Abreu. And again, that isn't how you can look at a players career. You can't just take a players road numbers because they hit in a hitter friendly ball park and ignore their home numbers. You are ignoring literally half their games played. I'm not a huge advocate for Helton, I think he is borderline in. I would like to see a few more good seasons personally, or at least solid seasons. But you can't throw out his home numbers because of his ballpark, that's clearly not fair to the player. Remember OPS+ is already park adjusted, and it's how the player compares to their era, park, and peers.

KingPosey
06-18-2012, 01:36 PM
He was better because he cheated. McGwire is no where near as naturally as big as Dunn. That's why he is walking around like a stick at 220lbs now that he no longer needs to ruin the game. Dunn matches all of McGwire's numbers if he was as willing to defraud the game as McGwire did.

Dunn has never even matched Mac's rookie year, so I dont see your angle.

DodgerBlue24
06-18-2012, 02:01 PM
I'm going to say no he wont get in... has the guy ever hit over .260? He is always around .240 or lower and how many years has he lead the league in Home Runs at the break and always left off the all star team...

KingPosey
06-18-2012, 02:04 PM
I think Jackson EASILY beats out dunn with #'s alone..

Dunn would need 175 more homers to catch up (not happening) and even if he comes close his rate stats will fall even further behind.

Not really. Not EASILY.

KingPosey
06-18-2012, 02:06 PM
I'm going to say no he wont get in... has the guy ever hit over .260? He is always around .240 or lower and how many years has he lead the league in Home Runs at the break and always left off the all star team...

first bold you have a point.

The 2nd bold doesnt mean anything.

Jeffy25
06-18-2012, 02:30 PM
Jackson and Dunn compare sort of

Jackson wasn't horrible defensively (not good though)
And Jackson hit in a horrible offensive era, and Dunn in an offensive explosive era (how much that matters is up to interpretation). As well, Dunn has enjoyed offensively favorable parks, Jackson overall ended up spending about all of his plate appearances in generally split parks.

Jackson - .262/.356/.490 - .375 wOBA, 139 wRC+, 81.4 fWAR - 11,416 PA
Dunn - .243/.374/.505 - .376 wOBA, 127 wRC+, 26.2 fWAR - 6846 PA

That wRC+ should tell you something about the era. Considering that Dunn's slash line is ever so slightly better, their wOBA are basically identical, but the Runs Created weighted is pretty far off into Jackson's favor.

That and.........Jackson had twice the plate appearances as Dunn. Dunn is gonna have to maintain his level of production and play into his 40's to reach Jackson. And no more playing defense.

Whoever brought up Jackson, it's a fair comparison, but Dunn is inferior.

bagwell368
06-18-2012, 10:13 PM
I think that is too abusive for the ballpark personally. You should look at what all Rockies hitters have hit since 93 on the road and at home.

And you can't use statistics like that, some players are going to be better home hitters than road hitters throughout their careers. Just a random example, Grady Sizemore, neutral park, has .30 points better wOBA at home than on the road in his career. Some players are going to do that. Helton is one of the only Rockies to ever hit outside of Coors field, he and Larry Walker. You can't just say, okay, here are the road numbers, let's adjust 4%.

We that use stats use them this way all the time. 4% might well not be accurate, but since it's the norm that's what we have. +40 OPS+ over road is not the norm, except for very very few players (if any). Without any convincing evidence for not using the norm, it's down to a subjective choice that claims 4% is not fair. While as I claim it, I'm being as true to the home/road split as I can be.


Something extreme happens when the Rockies leave Colorado, this is the biggest home/road split of any team in baseball history min 10,000 plate appearances.

See. You said it yourself. It's abnormal, and no amount of slithering changes that fact that some players looked like a super hero there a couple of years. It also went on with guys that left Coors and hit elsewhere, I can't think of one that continued to have a freak home/road split in their new home - Burks crazy 2000 season in SF is the exception.


The 135 is already park adjusted, he is about 35% above the league average hitter throughout his career.

And I say the adjustment isn't nearly enough. Mixing a ridiculous top tier HOF performance from Coors with a very good journeyman NON HOF hitter leads one to think he's an elite/borderline HOF hitter. He's not. The MVP voters don't think so. Watching him on the road proves he isn't elite either.


I think he is unfairly treated for having a friendly home ballpark. It's good that people are aware of the affects of Coors, but you can't completely cut out a players home numbers and look at their road numbers and say that's the hitter they would be elsewhere, that's ignoring literally half the games the player has played.

I didn't. I gave him his 4%. Let's look at his top 10 comps home/road +/-:

Edgar +/- 2%
Walker +/- 20%
Mize +/- 8.5%
Will Clark +/- 5%
Bagwell +/- 6%
Cepeda +/- 1%
Alou +/- 11.5%
Olerud +/- 1%
Vlad +/- 3%
Bernie Williams +/- 0%

Interesting. Walker's non Coors years were in the single digits, and Coors years like Helton up to the 30's. Let's set him aside. The other 9 guys: 4.22 plus at home. Geez, 4% seems pretty solid to me.


You giving Helton a 119 OPS+, that is a slash line of .280/.365/.465.

What BR says as I reported: TH Road: .290/.390/.477 OPS+: 115

I have no idea how you came up with "your" slash unless it was adjusted. The extra 4 points would raise it even higher above your slash line.

The neutralized slash is: .295/.391/.503 - better then the raw slash: .321/.419/.547 which is why everyone thinks Helton is so wonderful. He's a fraud - as a HOF wannabe.


Helton is far better hitter than that, considering he is a career .321/.419/.547 hitter, even if inflated in Coors, all his park adjusted numbers show him to be hall of fame level hitter.

Do you concur with me that Adrian Beltre's hitting charts in Safeco prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the "corrections" that were given to Beltre as an "average" hitter in Safeco were well short of being fair in reflecting his true value/potential? I argued this strongly before Beltre joined the Sox. Look at this following 2.3 years since. If you do, then how can you propound the notion that we should swallow Helton's combined/adjusted stats because they are inviolate - since they are on a web site? If you do not, then it's time for you to start looking at that specific topic as it provides the obvious and inescapable conclusion that averaged stats do not cover every player equally, AND it is worth pursuing the correct view, not the generic view.


He is still a .290/.390/.477 hitter on the road, that's still Bobby Abreu. And again, that isn't how you can look at a players career. You can't just take a players road numbers because they hit in a hitter friendly ball park and ignore their home numbers. You are ignoring literally half their games played. I'm not a huge advocate for Helton, I think he is borderline in. I would like to see a few more good seasons personally, or at least solid seasons. But you can't throw out his home numbers because of his ballpark, that's clearly not fair to the player. Remember OPS+ is already park adjusted, and it's how the player compares to their era, park, and peers.

Thanks, I know what OPS+ is, and what it isn't. Explain then the careers of: Bichette, Castilla, and Walker - IE pre/post Coors I/II.

Too bad Helton didn't leave Coors because then it would be clear he's a product of a ridiculous home park advantage.

HOF voters seem to be wary of Coors IMO. Hopefully he won't get in ever. Helton is easily overshadowed by the glut of great 1B since Killebrew. Helton did NOT prove he could make it in another home park. He hasn't won anything, and he's got six elite years in a 16 year career. He hasn't hit over 20 HR's since 2004. And finally - in Helton's "great" MVP year, his home park factor was an insane 129. Give me a break. HOF by juice is bad enough, but HOF by park? It's garbage.

Laces-Out
06-18-2012, 10:27 PM
500 will get him in after sometime...

bagwell368
06-18-2012, 10:56 PM
Jackson >>> Dunn

Neutralized Slash/HR:

Jackson: .277/.373/.517 HR: 618
A. Dunn: .239/.369/.498 HR: 381

Consider jackson played deep into his decline and Dunn is just getting to his.

Fielding (RTot):

Jackson -23
A. Dunn -62

In a much longer career, Jackson was a good deal better. Most only remember Jackson as a big K swing for the fence immobile player. First 1/2 of his career he could run the bases well. First 3rd he was a very good RF complete with wheels and decent arm.

Jeffy25
06-18-2012, 11:01 PM
We that use stats use them this way all the time. 4% might well not be accurate, but since it's the norm that's what we have. +40 OPS+ over road is not the norm, except for very very few players (if any). Without any convincing evidence for not using the norm, it's down to a subjective choice that claims 4% is not fair. While as I claim it, I'm being as true to the home/road split as I can be.



See. You said it yourself. It's abnormal, and no amount of slithering changes that fact that some players looked like a super hero there a couple of years. It also went on with guys that left Coors and hit elsewhere, I can't think of one that continued to have a freak home/road split in their new home - Burks crazy 2000 season in SF is the exception.



And I say the adjustment isn't nearly enough. Mixing a ridiculous top tier HOF performance from Coors with a very good journeyman NON HOF hitter leads one to think he's an elite/borderline HOF hitter. He's not. The MVP voters don't think so. Watching him on the road proves he isn't elite either.



I didn't. I gave him his 4%. Let's look at his top 10 comps home/road +/-:

Edgar +/- 2%
Walker +/- 20%
Mize +/- 8.5%
Will Clark +/- 5%
Bagwell +/- 6%
Cepeda +/- 1%
Alou +/- 11.5%
Olerud +/- 1%
Vlad +/- 3%
Bernie Williams +/- 0%

Interesting. Walker's non Coors years were in the single digits, and Coors years like Helton up to the 30's. Let's set him aside. The other 9 guys: 4.22 plus at home. Geez, 4% seems pretty solid to me.



What BR says as I reported: TH Road: .290/.390/.477 OPS+: 115

I have no idea how you came up with "your" slash unless it was adjusted. The extra 4 points would raise it even higher above your slash line.

The neutralized slash is: .295/.391/.503 - better then the raw slash: .321/.419/.547 which is why everyone thinks Helton is so wonderful. He's a fraud - as a HOF wannabe.



Do you concur with me that Adrian Beltre's hitting charts in Safeco prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the "corrections" that were given to Beltre as an "average" hitter in Safeco were well short of being fair in reflecting his true value/potential? I argued this strongly before Beltre joined the Sox. Look at this following 2.3 years since. If you do, then how can you propound the notion that we should swallow Helton's combined/adjusted stats because they are inviolate - since they are on a web site? If you do not, then it's time for you to start looking at that specific topic as it provides the obvious and inescapable conclusion that averaged stats do not cover every player equally, AND it is worth pursuing the correct view, not the generic view.



Thanks, I know what OPS+ is, and what it isn't. Explain then the careers of: Bichette, Castilla, and Walker - IE pre/post Coors I/II.

Too bad Helton didn't leave Coors because then it would be clear he's a product of a ridiculous home park advantage.

HOF voters seem to be wary of Coors IMO. Hopefully he won't get in ever. Helton is easily overshadowed by the glut of great 1B since Killebrew. Helton did NOT prove he could make it in another home park. He hasn't won anything, and he's got six elite years in a 16 year career. He hasn't hit over 20 HR's since 2004. And finally - in Helton's "great" MVP year, his home park factor was an insane 129. Give me a break. HOF by juice is bad enough, but HOF by park? It's garbage.


Reading all of this, it doesn't change that Helton is the second greatest road hitter in Rockies history, second to Walker.

.368 wOBA, 112 wRC+



Walker - .380 wOBA, 115 wRC+


Based on the extreme difference that all Rockies hitters have had going to and from Coors over the years, I would say Helton being this solid on the road is worth something.

He is the fourth best hitter at Coors of all Rockies hitters btw

Cargo - .456 wOBA, 179 wRC+
Helton - .429 wOBA, 153 wRC+


Helton is 37th all time in wOBA (.409) that's Al Simmons, Jackie Robinson territory
And is 95th all time with his 134 wRC+ that's Paul Warner, Carlos Delgado, Tim Raines.

I think 95th is a fair place, I think you adjusting the park factors further than the experts already have is a little extreme, at least for me. I will appeal to authority here.

Helton as a hitter has been solid, not amazing. But enough plate appearances and he is going to push the envelope for deserving to belong in. By all WAR accounts, he is a top 25 first basemen of all time. Question is do you think a top 20 player for his position belongs in or not? That's why I said a few more good seasons and he belongs in. I think top 15 players belong in at every position.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-19-2012, 05:16 AM
My question to you all regarding Adam Dunn and making the HOF is 2 fold...

Does batting average mean absolutely nothing to you?

And

Does defense mean absolutely nothing to you?


I'm sorry, but I just don't view him as a hall of famer at the end of the day.

Jeffy25
06-19-2012, 05:20 AM
My question to you all regarding Adam Dunn and making the HOF is 2 fold...

Does batting average mean absolutely nothing to you?

And

Does defense mean absolutely nothing to you?


I'm sorry, but I just don't view him as a hall of famer at the end of the day.

I don't think he belongs in, or ever will.

But batting average.....it's pretty well meaningless when so many other statistics say everything that batting average does without the flaws that batting average carries.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-19-2012, 05:22 AM
It still means something to me.

Jeffy25
06-19-2012, 05:27 AM
It still means something to me.

And that's fine, but it's a pretty empty statistic.

You can see OBP, Slugging, wOBA, wRC+, wRC, OPS+, TAV, oWAR and many other offensive statistics and each one of them, by themselves, will tell you more about offensive production than batting average.

It's misleading. Ryan Theriot can bat .300, and Adam Dunn can bat .200 and Adam Dunn can be a far more valuable offensive player than Ryan Theriot because he gets on base at a better clip, creates more runs, and hits extra base hits.

It's just an empty stat. If I could see only one stat for a players offensive value, I would want to see wOBA, followed closely be wRC+ and then their overall slash line (which does include batting average, but it doesn't really have to).

I'm not trying to talk down on what means something to you. That's your choice/prerogative/value. But you should know if you don't already that there are many other statistics that will tell you a lot more about offensive production than batting average. I used to resist and still find a way to support the statistic because I grew up on it. But today, I just ignore it, I completely ignore it because it doesn't show anything in relation to value what-so-ever.

adab
06-19-2012, 10:06 AM
I think Jackson EASILY beats out dunn with #'s alone..

Dunn would need 175 more homers to catch up (not happening) and even if he comes close his rate stats will fall even further behind.

The key word was MIGHT. Not saying Jackson is definitely comparable. Just saying that his BA was the lowest among HOF hitters when he was inducted. Plus he had a propensity to skrtikeout on occasion something Dunn knows a lot about.
Lastly, neither were/are ever mistaken for GG caliber players.
In the end, I concluded that Reggie was a definitely HOF material and that Dunn is not.

JackB
06-19-2012, 10:19 AM
Of course he should get in. The HOF is open to all very good players now. You don't have to be elite anymore.

KingPosey
06-19-2012, 12:00 PM
And that's fine, but it's a pretty empty statistic.

You can see OBP, Slugging, wOBA, wRC+, wRC, OPS+, TAV, oWAR and many other offensive statistics and each one of them, by themselves, will tell you more about offensive production than batting average.

It's misleading. Ryan Theriot can bat .300, and Adam Dunn can bat .200 and Adam Dunn can be a far more valuable offensive player than Ryan Theriot because he gets on base at a better clip, creates more runs, and hits extra base hits.

It's just an empty stat. If I could see only one stat for a players offensive value, I would want to see wOBA, followed closely be wRC+ and then their overall slash line (which does include batting average, but it doesn't really have to).

I'm not trying to talk down on what means something to you. That's your choice/prerogative/value. But you should know if you don't already that there are many other statistics that will tell you a lot more about offensive production than batting average. I used to resist and still find a way to support the statistic because I grew up on it. But today, I just ignore it, I completely ignore it because it doesn't show anything in relation to value what-so-ever.

Its overrated but its not an empty stat. A single can mean a lot more than a walk. Its hard to equate little things like that.

bagwell368
06-19-2012, 02:23 PM
I think 95th is a fair place, I think you adjusting the park factors further than the experts already have is a little extreme, at least for me. I will appeal to authority here.

What experts? They didn't sit there and consider Coors and Helton individually. They set up a mathematical equation and ran numbers through it. The equation is designed for MOR cases, corner cases can and do prove that this averaging is not perfect and not even that close at times.

Helton is an above average BA hitter, a very very good OBP hitter, and a 2B's heavy with good HR counts in his prime SLG hitter. He's a fine fielder too, one of the better ones ever - and Coors has nothing to do with that. But his home and adjusted numbers put him into company that I do not believe who he is as a hitter - based on subjectives and objectives both.


Helton as a hitter has been solid, not amazing. But enough plate appearances and he is going to push the envelope for deserving to belong in. By all WAR accounts, he is a top 25 first basemen of all time. Question is do you think a top 20 player for his position belongs in or not? That's why I said a few more good seasons and he belongs in. I think top 15 players belong in at every position.

I don't buy his home numbers thus I cannot buy his WAR as is. However w/o getting into a long examination I can buy that he's ~25th all time 1B. For positional players a 20th doesn't get you in to most positions - if any. 3B? Guys rated 12-15 are not in. Catcher - same. CF - same. Look how high up in CF Edmonds is (7th I believe), most think he won't get in.

Helton will be 39 in August. He might keep up with his nice BA and OBP through the end of next year, but his SLG will continue to drop, and he won't get to any significant milestones that some voters looks for (HR and Hits). His fielding is liable to slide somewhat as well.

WadeKobe
06-19-2012, 03:14 PM
What experts? They didn't sit there and consider Coors and Helton individually. They set up a mathematical equation and ran numbers through it. The equation is designed for MOR cases, corner cases can and do prove that this averaging is not perfect and not even that close at times.

Helton is an above average BA hitter, a very very good OBP hitter, and a 2B's heavy with good HR counts in his prime SLG hitter. He's a fine fielder too, one of the better ones ever - and Coors has nothing to do with that. But his home and adjusted numbers put him into company that I do not believe who he is as a hitter - based on subjectives and objectives both.



I don't buy his home numbers thus I cannot buy his WAR as is. However w/o getting into a long examination I can buy that he's ~25th all time 1B. For positional players a 20th doesn't get you in to most positions - if any. 3B? Guys rated 12-15 are not in. Catcher - same. CF - same. Look how high up in CF Edmonds is (7th I believe), most think he won't get in.

Helton will be 39 in August. He might keep up with his nice BA and OBP through the end of next year, but his SLG will continue to drop, and he won't get to any significant milestones that some voters looks for (HR and Hits). His fielding is liable to slide somewhat as well.

I like Helton a lot, and would love to see him in, but I probably agree with this post more than any other.

RowBTrice
06-19-2012, 03:59 PM
No.

bagwell368
06-19-2012, 04:29 PM
My question to you all regarding Adam Dunn and making the HOF is 2 fold...

Does batting average mean absolutely nothing to you?

And

Does defense mean absolutely nothing to you?


I'm sorry, but I just don't view him as a hall of famer at the end of the day.

BA does matter, but after many decades of fans worshiping batting averages, it's been found that other measures correlate better with scoring runs. wOBA, OPS, OPS+, etc. So it's an overstatement to say BA isn't important, but, after reigning for so long it's getting back lashed quite a bit the past 25 years.

Look at Joe Morgan vs Rod Carew. In their time Morgan was seen as a do everything player with a couple of great peak years on a great team that had a regrettable batting average. Carew was seen as the pure elegant hitter, well better with a bat then Morgan.

Well, adjusted for park, Morgan and Carew are actually quite close in value per PA - but Morgan played longer and stayed at 2B, Carew played more games at 1B then 2B (meaning his numbers were weaker vs his comps). Morgan was a better fielder (although the 5 GG overstate his abilities a fair amount). Morgan was a great base stealer (% too), a great taker of walks, excellent power for a 2B in his time. Morgan is arguably the greatest 2B of all time (at worst 3rd best), and Carew and his fancy .328 career BA are not.

Dunn bat alone is a more productive hitter then Ichiro - period. Ichiro is more entertaining and "skillful" perhaps, but, he doesn't produce runs as well as Dunn. OTOH, Ichiro crushes Dunn with glove and on the bases.

Dunn has none, zero, no, nada shot at the HOF. He's a productive player in his time. Somewhere around above average with the bat. His fielding at 1B is actually gotten OK in the last 3 years or so, so you can hide him there or at DH. He's going to end up like Inky at some point - sinking below a .200 BA with power , and he won't be asked back after that year, which is 1,2,3, or 4 years away. I hope he does reach 500 HR's because he won't get in the HOF and people can stop talking about 500 as a magic number.

Konerko, Ortiz, and Dunn are all on the move to 500. Not a HOF in the bunch. If they all make it, it would just make it even more clear that 500 is as dead as a doornail for deciding who gets in. Bagwell didn't make it to 500 or the HOF yet, and he's head and shoulders over all 3. Delgado and McGriff short of 500 are both better then those 3 too. Fact is HR's is just one metric to look at, and a lot of guys are hitting between 420 and 520 these last few decades.

Jeffy25
06-19-2012, 04:33 PM
Its overrated but its not an empty stat. A single can mean a lot more than a walk. Its hard to equate little things like that.

That's why we have wOBA. It gives value to the single and the walk, and the single has more value than the walk. wOBA recognizes that

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-19-2012, 05:57 PM
That's why we have wOBA. It gives value to the single and the walk, and the single has more value than the walk. wOBA recognizes that

Well, what does Dunn's wOBA look like?

LakersA's49ers
06-19-2012, 07:14 PM
if dunn reaches 500, that should be automatc. unless he is a palmeiro,sosa,or bonds

Jeffy25
06-19-2012, 08:50 PM
Well, what does Dunn's wOBA look like?

.376 that's 40th best since 2001 when Dunn entered the league

That puts him basically right next to Moises Alou (.304 batting average to Dunn's .243), Luis Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, Bobby Abreu

Bonds has a .499
Pujols has a .426
Votto has a .414
Holliday has a .397

League average over this time frame is .321, that's Mark Ellis, Delmon Young, Joe Crede

wOBA is pretty easy to calculate, it's based on the productivity of walks, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, etc to the proclivity of scoring runs.

OBP is flawed because it ignores that a double is more valuable than a single, it obviously is, and because it treats a walks as equal to a single, it isn't. Singles create more runs than walks, but not many.

SLUG is flawed because it treats a home run as equal to two doubles. That's not what a home run is worth, and that isn't what a double is worth.

And obviously batting average is flawed because it thinks every hit is of value, but no walks or hbp, or anything like that.

All of that is calculated in wOBA to the proclivity of scoring runs in an exact formula in relation to the league average of each positive offensive creation.

MetsFanatic19
06-19-2012, 09:38 PM
he'll come close but voters will look at the negatives (low batting avergae, poor fielder, high strikeouts) more than they do the positives.

Santana4Prez'08
06-19-2012, 11:50 PM
he'll come close but voters will look at the negatives (low batting avergae, poor fielder, high strikeouts) more than they do the positives.

hes one of the great sluggers to come out of the steroid era unscathed. hes probably one of the last, or near last because he was so young at the time. i think for him a 500 is a definite must, maybe even a little more. lets be honest, how are you going to tell a guy who hit 500 homers in his career during the steroid era cleanly while being a class act on and off the field and being one of the most dominant bats of the time that he is unworthy of being in the hall?

Jeffy25
06-19-2012, 11:53 PM
hes one of the great sluggers to come out of the steroid era unscathed. hes probably one of the last, or near last because he was so young at the time. i think for him a 500 is a definite must, maybe even a little more. lets be honest, how are you going to tell a guy who hit 500 homers in his career during the steroid era cleanly while being a class act on and off the field and being one of the most dominant bats of the time that he is unworthy of being in the hall?

Easily, because he isn't one of the most dominants bats of this time.

thaShady
06-20-2012, 12:17 AM
If Fred McGriff isnt in the HOF, then Adam Dunn can rot in Hell.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 01:47 AM
.376 that's 40th best since 2001 when Dunn entered the league

That puts him basically right next to Moises Alou (.304 batting average to Dunn's .243), Luis Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, Bobby Abreu

Bonds has a .499
Pujols has a .426
Votto has a .414
Holliday has a .397

League average over this time frame is .321, that's Mark Ellis, Delmon Young, Joe Crede

wOBA is pretty easy to calculate, it's based on the productivity of walks, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, etc to the proclivity of scoring runs.

OBP is flawed because it ignores that a double is more valuable than a single, it obviously is, and because it treats a walks as equal to a single, it isn't. Singles create more runs than walks, but not many.

SLUG is flawed because it treats a home run as equal to two doubles. That's not what a home run is worth, and that isn't what a double is worth.

And obviously batting average is flawed because it thinks every hit is of value, but no walks or hbp, or anything like that.

All of that is calculated in wOBA to the proclivity of scoring runs in an exact formula in relation to the league average of each positive offensive creation.

Ok, my question is...what exactly is this formula?

Is it a subjective thing...or is their an exact formula that can be mathematically calculated regardless of any subjectivity.

It smells a bit like Total QBR to me (that new Qb rating that measures things on a very subjective viewpoint...me no likey. I like subjective viewpoints, but mixing it within statistic calculations are a big no-no).

Speaking of subjective viewpoints, Dunn fails this test big time for me. I just don't love the way he plays the game. Its not about stats here...I just don't think he is consistent or good enough to warrant any sort of consideration of being a HOF player. I am sure you have some advanced stats to measure exactly why I feel this way.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 01:48 AM
Easily, because he isn't one of the most dominants bats of this time.

Bazinga! Lol

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 01:58 AM
Ok, my question is...what exactly is this formula?

Is it a subjective thing...or is their an exact formula that can be mathematically calculated regardless of any subjectivity.

Yes.

Enter the data. On row 1 of a spreadsheet, enter the following statistics: Column A: "Nonintentional walks," Column B: "Times hit by pitch," Column C: "Singles," Column D: "Times reached base on error," Column E: "Doubles," Column F: "Triples," Column G: "Home runs" and "Column H: Plate appearances." You may also enter the player's name in Column J.


Enter the formula in Cell I1: It is =(0.72*A1 + 0.75*B1 + 0.90*C1 + 0.92*D1 + 1.24*E1 + 1.56*F1 + 1.95*G1) /H1. The resulting number will be the wOBA for the player in row 1.


Enter into an excel spreadsheet and you have it. It is based on the league average OBP as the base line, and then is worked from there, so each year it is technically adjusted ever so slightly (the weights are based on the league average OBP). And each offensive output is based on the creation of runs by doing each action, from being non-intentionally walked to hitting a home run. Each one affects scoring at a different rate. There isn't anything subjective to it. But the amounts do vary year to year, however, the last two seasons they have remained the same because the offense in baseball the last two years has been pretty well consistent.

I hope that wasn't too much info, but you asked :shrug:


Speaking of subjective viewpoints, Dunn fails this test big time for me. I just don't love the way he plays the game. Its not about stats here...I just don't think he is consistent or good enough to warrant any sort of consideration of being a HOF player. I am sure you have some advanced stats to measure exactly why I feel this way.

Well last year he fell off the face of the earth, and if he hadn't Dunn (bahahah) that, then his numbers would look at lot better and you would probably think more highly of him (I am the same way). Having a crash year like that in the middle of your career doesn't scream hall of famer for a lot of reasons.

And he hasn't remained with one club, which always appeals to voters as well.

He doesn't seem like a hall of famer to me, and his numbers don't support him either.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 02:08 AM
Ok...so I am guessing that those random numbers that make up how the formula is configured is based on research that has been Dunn (lol) to project how runs are scored in the most effective way possible?

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 02:10 AM
I don't get why nonintential walks are more valuable as HBP...or why reaching bases by errors should even be counted in this equation. The rest makes sense.

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 02:13 AM
Ok...so I am guessing that those random numbers that make up how the formula is configured is based on research that has been Dunn (lol) to project how runs are scored in the most effective way possible?

It is nothing to do with projections, it's based on results.


For every walk you draw, you get so many points per plate appearance, for every single, double etc.

Basically that's how it works, it is calculated like you calculate OBP, Batting average, etc. Just a longer calculation, and a lot more accurate.


Basically every walk in baseball leads to so many of the total runs scored in baseball every season, same with home runs and everything else. How many of those were by Adam Dunn? That's how the numbers are calculated. You can basically stand by the current formula, any changes to it are really minor, like less than one tenth, and they only change when the entire game of baseball has changed it's offensive output.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 02:16 AM
Also, I stil don't see how any of this makes batting average an empty stat.

Just because other stats can tell a better story of the truth, doesn't mean that batting average is completely meaningless.

When the game is on the line, and you simply need a base hit...do you really want a .240 hitter at the plate? I don't think batting average is an empty stat in that particular situation, and that particular situation can come up in a big spot.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 02:17 AM
It is nothing to do with projections, it's based on results.


For every walk you draw, you get so many points per plate appearance, for every single, double etc.

Basically that's how it works, it is calculated like you calculate OBP, Batting average, etc. Just a longer calculation, and a lot more accurate.


Basically every walk in baseball leads to so many of the total runs scored in baseball every season, same with home runs and everything else. How many of those were by Adam Dunn? That's how the numbers are calculated. You can basically stand by the current formula, any changes to it are really minor, like less than one tenth, and they only change when the entire game of baseball has changed it's offensive output.

Yeah, but how does a HBP or reaching base by error tell you anything about a player's skill level? These seem like cold calculations in an otherwise good formula.

Reaching base via error or getting hit by a pitch may help the team, but it doesn't say much or anything at all about a player's skill set.

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 02:19 AM
I don't get why nonintential walks are more valuable as HBP...or why reaching bases by errors should even be counted in this equation. The rest makes sense.

Well you can always adjust the equation yourself and keep the numbers for all baseball players yourself of course :)


It's based on how many runs you can score, and reaching base on errors does help create runs. If you don't think it's a skill based statistic, you can argue that.

Non-intentional walks lead to a different number of runs than hit by pitches, which is why they have a different amount. Can't really tell you why they do, but they do lol.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 02:19 AM
I'm not saying that AVG doesn't have its flaws, but if you can recognize its flaws and still see it for its strengths...I think it still holds some value when analyzing a given player.

I wouldn't call it an "empty stat". Not at all.

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 02:20 AM
When the game is on the line, and you simply need a base hit...do you really want a .240 hitter at the plate? I don't think batting average is an empty stat in that particular situation, and that particular situation can come up in a big spot.

I don't want a guy that strikes out a lot. I want that Ryan Theriot/Starlin Castro hitter because he is likely to at least put the ball in play. But when assembling a lineup, or acquiring players. Batting average is a bad way to do it. That's really all, stats like wOBA will tell you a lot more.

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 02:22 AM
Yeah, but how does a HBP or reaching base by error tell you anything about a player's skill level? These seem like cold calculations in an otherwise good formula.

Reaching base via error or getting hit by a pitch may help the team, but it doesn't say much or anything at all about a player's skill set.

You don't have to look at wOBA as a skill stat, I don't know that it necessarily is. It's a value stat. It's what they use to calculate the offensive side of WAR.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 02:24 AM
Well you can always adjust the equation yourself and keep the numbers for all baseball players yourself of course :)


It's based on how many runs you can score, and reaching base on errors does help create runs. If you don't think it's a skill based statistic, you can argue that.

Non-intentional walks lead to a different number of runs than hit by pitches, which is why they have a different amount. Can't really tell you why they do, but they do lol.

Reaching base on errors is not skill based. I don't see why anyone would believe that it should be evaluated that way. Thats not just my preference...thats just common sense.

And I think the whole HBP vs. Walks thing is a more about a pitcher just being wild and pitching poorly with no command. If anything...a non-intential walk takes more skill, makes the pitcher work harder, and is clearly more of a product of the offense player doing something positive than the pitcher merely ****ing up at his job...(at least compared to being HBP). I know that the research concluded that his formula is accurate to scoring runs, but that doesn't mean its an accurate picture of a given player's skill set.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 02:28 AM
I don't want a guy that strikes out a lot. I want that Ryan Theriot/Starlin Castro hitter because he is likely to at least put the ball in play. But when assembling a lineup, or acquiring players. Batting average is a bad way to do it. That's really all, stats like wOBA will tell you a lot more.

I agree with that.

Still, AVG does have some value if you understand its flaws and strenghts... when you are simply analyzing players, or deciding whether or not they are HOF worthy.

There are better stats out there, but its not an empty stat that should be ignored. Thats all I am saying.

And in big situations where I need a hit late in a game, I don't want Adam Dunn at the plate. That has to be a factor in determining if a player is HOF worthy or not. You mix that in with horrible defense, horrible speed, and inconsistency....thats why I don't view him as a HOF. Its not just because he had one bad year. He is a very streaky, one dimensional player in general...even during his good seasons.

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 02:29 AM
Reaching base on errors is not skill based. I don't see why anyone would believe that it should be evaluated that way. Thats not just my preference...thats just common sense.

And I think the whole HBP vs. Walks thing is a more about a pitcher just being wild and pitching poorly with no command. If anything...a non-intential walk takes more skill, makes the pitcher work harder, and is clearly more of a product of the offense player doing something positive than the pitcher merely ****ing up at his job...(at least compared to being HBP). I know that the research concluded that his formula is accurate to scoring runs, but that doesn't mean its an accurate picture of a given player's skill set.

I fully agree. But rarely does a player get hit more than 10 times a year. And most players reach on an error as much as everyone else, however, hustling can help create this.

HBP, while is more to the luck of the hitter, they still earned that and it shouldn't count against them. The same with the errors. And since the whole formula is calculated by dividing all the players plate appearances, it wouldn't really be fair to count those as outs for the player, at least not HBP. So they are added into this value stat.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 02:33 AM
Also, I have to say this...

I won't dispute that some of these advanced stats make sense and can't paint an accurate picture, but........

A simple slash line of AVG/OBP/SLUG when analyzed together paints a clear enough picture of accurately showing a player's offensive value IMO. You just need to not be a complete dummy, and understand the strengths and weaknesses of those particular statistics.

Using that with the good ole eye test has always been what I use...and I feel it has worked pretty well for me.

Thats just my 2 cents.

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 02:42 AM
Also, I have to say this...

I won't dispute that some of these advanced stats make sense and can't paint an accurate picture, but........

A simple slash line of AVG/OBP/SLUG when analyzed together paints a clear enough picture of accurately showing a player's offensive value IMO. You just need to not be a complete dummy, and understand the strengths and weaknesses of those particular statistics.

Using that with the good ole eye test has always been what I use...and I feel it has worked pretty well for me.

Thats just my 2 cents.

Well look at Reggie Jackson vs Adam Dunn. Dunn has a better slash line, and almost the same wOBA, but their wRC+ is very different because of ERAs and park (in favor of Jackson). The more information the better...always.

todu82
06-20-2012, 12:34 PM
I like Dunn and his power numbers give him a strong case for the HOF but I doubt he makes it.

metswon69
06-20-2012, 01:04 PM
Edit: already posted.

ShockerArt
06-20-2012, 01:13 PM
I don't want a guy that strikes out a lot. I want that Ryan Theriot/Starlin Castro hitter because he is likely to at least put the ball in play.

'Ryan Theriot' is never the answer to the question "who do you want at bat if ... ?"

Fla.SticKy
06-20-2012, 01:44 PM
Gonna say no to this one, but its kinda hard though! This is a question where PED's ERA comes into effect!

metswon69
06-20-2012, 03:15 PM
I think all these power hitters are going to dissected so much that you are going to need the world's biggest figurative microscope to find any trace of innocence.

Unfortunately guys connected to the steroid era are guilty by association and it's a shame if Dunn did it the right way when a lot of these other guys did it the wrong way.

Because "500" would have still meant something to the writers who voted for players in the time period of the "steroid era" if there hadn't been steroids.

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 03:32 PM
If Dunn roided, he got away with it for a very long time.

I 'feel' that he is clean. He was country strong, and he had a pretty standard power curve numbers wise throughout his career.

I mean if Galvis is a PED taker and not a power hitter. Why should we assume just because a guy is a power hitter that he roided?

Dunn was always a big boy that hit for power, roids or not.

metswon69
06-20-2012, 03:38 PM
If Dunn roided, he got away with it for a very long time.

I 'feel' that he is clean. He was country strong, and he had a pretty standard power curve numbers wise throughout his career.

I mean if Galvis is a PED taker and not a power hitter. Why should we assume just because a guy is a power hitter that he roided?

Dunn was always a big boy that hit for power, roids or not.

Well i think it's an assumption with a lot of power hitters now, especially the elite ones.

I'm in the same crowd as you when it comes to Dunn as a non roid user, but sadly when you hear a guys name like Pujols or Batista the first thing people think instead of maybe the guy is just a great hitter is that steroids made a good hitter into a great hitter.

Or the guy uses some form of PED to maintain his level of performance.

A guy like Ryan Braun is a good example, a lot of people after the positive test thought he would stop being an elite player when obviously as you can see this year is he on pace to do what he has done in prior seasons if not better.

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 03:45 PM
Well i think it's an assumption with a lot of power hitters now, especially the elite ones.

I'm in the same crowd as you when it comes to Dunn as a non roid user, but sadly when you hear a guys name like Pujols or Batista the first thing people think instead of maybe the guy is just a great hitter is that steroids made a good hitter into a great hitter.

Or the guy uses some form of PED to maintain his level of performance.

A guy like Ryan Braun is a good example, a lot of people after the positive test thought he would stop being an elite player when obviously as you can see this year is he on pace to due what he has done in prior seasons if not better.

Which is sad.

no matter what era we play in, there will always be some players that outperform the rest of the competition at an elite level (obviously, it's the nature of sports).

But what is sad is that we have to assume that the only way a player in this generation could have been great is if they took something to enhance their performance.

I wish it wasn't so :(

S.P.
06-20-2012, 03:53 PM
Can't wait til this thread fades because every time I see it I think it says "Is Adam Dunn Hot?" and then I have to answer that question to myself.

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 04:00 PM
Well look at Reggie Jackson vs Adam Dunn. Dunn has a better slash line, and almost the same wOBA, but their wRC+ is very different because of ERAs and park (in favor of Jackson). The more information the better...always.

Well, I wasn't talking about comparing players over different ERAs. Thats a whole different issue. Obviously you have to look at how a given player performs compared to others in his ERA rather than simply comparing the stats of two players from different ERAs.

And I have always strongly considered the ball park's in which certain players play in. I never put an exact number on it, but I always held that in high regard.

I guess its nice to put a number value on all these factors. I have always just let these different factors influence my opinions "by feel".

Jeffy25
06-20-2012, 04:01 PM
^ nothing wrong with that. I like the numbers :)

Wrigheyes4MVP
06-20-2012, 04:11 PM
I like the numbers too. I'm not an advanced stats guy, but I understand its merits.

If I was running a club, I wouldn't necessarily use them myself, but I would definitely have a team of advanced stats analysts in place to advise me on certain issues.