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View Full Version : Quarter of the way done the season



leafswin2011
05-19-2012, 03:07 AM
We are 40 games in and our record is 22-18.Projected to be 88-72 after 160 games.With boston and LA struggling and Baltimore playing well in the division beating teams 89 games just might be enough to get into 1 of the 2 wildcards.How does everyone feel about the team so far and what can we do to improve now that we have got rid of some loose baggage.

WhatSayYou
05-19-2012, 04:17 AM
Rotation: Pretty Solid

Overall the starters have exceeded expectations, Morrow and Alvarez have been great. Romero, Drabek, and Hutchison have been decent, but all three are handing out WAY too many free passes to have long term success. I believe Ricky will figure things out, while Hutchison is known as a control pitcher so hopefully he does as well. I think Drabek is the big question mark heading down the stretch.

Hitters: Getting Better

At times out hitters have been embarassing, but you can't argue results as we've been putting up runs. With Lind gone and Jose, Yunel, and JP finally hitting again things are looking alot better. As expect EE is slowing down but he has still given us great production for a guy no one though much of a year ago. I like what I see in KJ, he is a BB machine, while Lawrie has been respectable (His D has been great IMO). The biggest Q's have to be Thames and Rasmus. Thames has been alright, but I'd like to see more seeing as are playing him over Snider. Rasmus on the hand sure has been getting unlucky, but at the end of the day he's hitting .200, he's gotta improve.

BP: Terrible, but improving

Our BP has definitely been terrible, but as noted by Buck most of the damage had been done by our two "closers" Santos and Cordero. I have confidence in Santos, but Cordero is clearly done and now that Farell has realized this things should be better going forward. Jannsen looks good closing right now, while Frasor and Oliver have been quietly putting together very good seasons, while we have solid long men in Villanueva and Perez.

Overall, considering all our problems if the playoffs started today we'd be in! While teams like the Yanks and Angels are expected to make pushes, a team like O's one would expect would fall back to earth. I like our chances IF the rotation can keep it together, that means Ricky starts pitching like was last year.

masTOR_shake1
05-19-2012, 04:27 AM
honestly we just have to take wins away from t-bay, the o's and the two other teams, whatever their names are. division games are soo soo crucial given the dynamic of the division this year that they are almost worth 2 games and 6- 10 type divisional ball won't hack it down the stretch.

Lavy16
05-19-2012, 05:17 AM
Imagine what the Jays record would be if they could have closed out games. I know it's only early in the season, but wouldn't it suck if the Jays missed the playoffs by a couple of games.

Krylian
05-19-2012, 06:21 AM
On pace for about 89 wins is better than most predicted.

Take it.

SgtFloydPepper
05-19-2012, 07:42 AM
They come together and then they fall apart. They come together and then they fall apart and then just when it looks like they're coming together...

Projecting the win total is futile this season especially only a quarter of the way through - far too many variables to consider. Which Romero will turn up...will Hutch maintain his steady progress or will the league catch up to him...will Drabek's sinker be effective? Bullpen headaches? And since the bats are starting to heat up will they remain warm?

As it happens I fancy the batting to remain strong through the rest of the term which will obviously help matters and hopefully it will settle the pitching down. What I do enjoy is watching this team hustling for each other in the field which can make a massive difference in a game.

Farrell needs to be sharper - his decision making can really take some of the pressure off what is a young side. I'm just watching at the moment and enjoying the highs. We'll know better two weeks or so after the all star break.

damadmonk
05-19-2012, 08:27 AM
As far as I'm concerned, we are a player or two away at this point. We are in the playoffs.

North Yorker
05-19-2012, 08:30 AM
Our schedule has been weaksauce up to this point and we havent taken advantage of it. We'll have to improve our division record significantly if we want any shot at getting 88+ wins.

scottythegreat1
05-19-2012, 09:43 AM
Our schedule has been weaksauce up to this point and we havent taken advantage of it. We'll have to improve our division record significantly if we want any shot at getting 88+ wins.

I couldnt have said it better myself!!! Im sure we can do better against our division.

leafswin2011
05-19-2012, 10:49 AM
in august and sept we play...BOS 6 times,BAL 9 times,TB 10 times and NY 13 times!!!!if we are even 5 games over 500 going into august we better be adding a big player to this roster.we can make up a lot of ground in the last 2 months.

the_jon
05-19-2012, 11:47 AM
I predicted 87-88 wins for us in the predictions thread so we're right in line with what I thought right now.

the_jon
05-19-2012, 11:48 AM
Our schedule has been weaksauce up to this point and we havent taken advantage of it. We'll have to improve our division record significantly if we want any shot at getting 88+ wins.
Yeah that's my biggest concern. We should really be better than 22-18 right now. We've hardly even played the Red Sox and Yankees so far.

Twitchy
05-19-2012, 12:40 PM
Yeah that's my biggest concern. We should really be better than 22-18 right now. We've hardly even played the Red Sox and Yankees so far.

But the Red Sox aren't any good...

ktownguy31
05-19-2012, 12:52 PM
My question is why does every say the orioles have to fall back to earth...they have been bad for many yrs now ,so doesnt that mean they have to get better after so many yrs of last place?

2009mvp
05-19-2012, 01:43 PM
^^Because they have 2 and a half good hitters in their lineup and their rotation blows. I'd say the pen blows too but relievers are so damn fickle I wouldn't be shocked to see them continue to pitch pretty well through this season at least. They're not a completely terrible team I suppose, but they're not very good either.

ktownguy31
05-19-2012, 03:22 PM
Ok thanks for the info ...love baseball but im not as hardcore as some of you guys lol

mtf
05-19-2012, 03:33 PM
I couldnt have said it better myself!!!

You could have said it bigger though!!!!!!!!

StayOnBoard
05-19-2012, 08:02 PM
Yeah that's my biggest concern. We should really be better than 22-18 right now. We've hardly even played the Red Sox and Yankees so far.

But the Red Sox aren't any good...

Dont you miss those arguments in the mlb forum how the sox are the greatest team ever and toronto/tampa will never touch them or be competitive? Lol

Ahh the good ole days... :-)

nithanyo
05-19-2012, 08:21 PM
Hitting
C+

Starting Pitching
B

Relief pitching
C

Defence
B-

Im surprised were 23-18

lmallia
05-21-2012, 12:50 AM
Hitting
C+

Starting Pitching
B

Relief pitching
C

Defence
B-

Im surprised were 23-18

Damn you're a hard grader.. Starting Pitching a B but they are #1 in the AL in ERA..

Johann
05-21-2012, 01:21 AM
Hitting
C+

Starting Pitching
B

Relief pitching
C

Defence
B-

Im surprised were 23-18

Hitting: B : Decent.

Starting Pitching: A- : Romero, Morrow have pitched well (as we thought they would). Alvarez + Drabek have all surprised us, pitching very well to start the season, although hitting some rough patches. Even Hutchinson has pitched well as a rook.

Relief: C- : Really stunk, given all the hype going into the season. CoCo blew multiple saves. Perez/Janssen/Frasor/oliver have all turned it around of late, but Villanueva/CoCo weren't been able to hold a lead at the beginning of the season. With Santos coming back, hopefully our RP becomes a strength.

Defence: C+ : We made some sweet plays, but we're still in 27th place in terms of errors with 37

bartron_44
05-21-2012, 11:17 AM
^^Because they have 2 and a half good hitters in their lineup and their rotation blows. I'd say the pen blows too but relievers are so damn fickle I wouldn't be shocked to see them continue to pitch pretty well through this season at least. They're not a completely terrible team I suppose, but they're not very good either.

all I can say to this is WOW.

2 and a half good hitters? They lead the MAJORS in home runs (without Mark Reynolds doing anything), and are 6th in majors in runs scored.

Jones - .964
Reimold - .960 (before he got hurt)
Markakis - .800 (.900 in May)
Wieters - .799 (.937 in April)
Davis - .790 (.922 in April)
Hardy - .775 (.984 in May)


So they have had at least 3 guys in the heart of their lineup with an OPS over .900 pretty much the entire year. Reynolds has gotten off to a slow start, but has put up months of .900+ OPS production in the past. Pretty much their entire lineup is between the ages 26 and 28, so they have a lot of hitters in their prime.



Also, a bullpen that blows? 4 out of their top 5 guys have an ERA under 1.65:

Player IP ERA
Johnson - 19.2 0.92
Strop- 23.2 1.14
Ayala - 22.0 1.64
O'Day - 21.1 1.27
Lindstrom- 14.0 1.29


If the Orioles had a top of the rotation pitcher of another big bat to their order, they have a real good chance at making the playoffs. They are 15-6 on the road this year, and one of the hottest teams in baseball to start the season. I think people need to start giving them respect just like we want the Jays to get some around the league.

Dol-Fan
05-21-2012, 11:29 AM
If you're giving pitching and defense letter grades, you better be giving the D one better...they have bailed our pitchers out several times. Pay no mind to the errors. Our middle infield (throw Lawrie in there) gets to balls that most simply do not.

Hitting: C+
Gave them the plus because of a more patient approach for the most part. We are starting to force pitchers to make more pitches. Still a pull-happy approach and listening to the Mets broadcast over the weekend made it clear how much Buck and Tabs ignore. We don't even attempt to go the other way. Murphy has only now started to allow his guys to take walks. We can't afford to wait another year for this stubborn SOB to instruct guys to go the other way.

Starting pitching: B-
Morrow picks up most of this this grade. Romero has been OK but needs to pick it up. Drabek allowing too many baserunners but has shown improvement. Alvarez getting results but needs to strike guys out. Hutchison may not be ready yet but has battled and improved. The good: tons of ground balls, relatively low pitch counts. The bad: unsustainable LOB rates, way too many walks.

Relief pitching: B-
I'll be more lenient than some others. Santos and Cordero have made the BP look far worse than it really has been. Janssen started the year rough but has been very good since. Frasor and Oliver have been great. Perez has been pretty good, despite faltering after a dominant start to the year. Villanueva needs to pick it up. Overall, 4 of our relievers have been very reliable.

Defense: B+/A-
Infield has demonstrated plenty of range, made awesome plays, Butterfield has drawn up some great defensive formations. JPA has had some hiccups but overall has been pretty decent. He is already at his WAR from last year (although in-season WAR fluctuates like a *****). Despite below average range in right, Jose has made some great plays with his arm. Rasmus has looked very solid in CF. Only real weak spot has been LF, and that has been real weak, likely costing us several runs at this point. Thames' range is horrific and his arm is likely worse.

Twitchy
05-21-2012, 11:51 AM
I guess this is going to be the Grades thread then...

Hitting B+/A- = Anything less than that is just crazy. The Jays rank fifth in the majors in runs scored, and that's with Bautista JUST starting to turn things around, Rasmus struggling like crazy, and Lind being the clean up hitter.

Defence A+ = SS, 3B and CF have been phenomenal. RF/2B have been solid, and LF has been a disaster. Arencibia's still awful behind the plate, but overall the Jays are great at SS/CF and it's made a huge difference in making some of the below average pitchers look better, which is all you can ask for.

Rotation F - Biggest weakness on the team, and only Morrow hasn't been awful. He's been outstanding. They're doing well by ERA, but the pitching staff is second last in FIP, which is a testament to how amazing the defence is. Alvarez has been a disaster, which is disappointing. Drabek is getting by because of the GB rate nuking the runners but if he doesn't cut down the walks he's pretty worthless in the long run too. And the #5 spot is a joke.

I'm actually getting a bit worried that this is more than mechanics with Romero. All the walks, the drop in velocity, the drop in quality of his stuff (less swinging strikes) makes me worried he's hiding an injury. I have nothing to back that up though, and I hope I'm wrong and just paranoid.

Bullpen C - Frasor/Janssen/Oliver/Perez are outstanding but everybody else has been awful.

wamco
05-21-2012, 12:38 PM
Rotation F - Biggest weakness on the team, and only Morrow hasn't been awful. He's been outstanding. They're doing well by ERA, but the pitching staff is second last in FIP, which is a testament to how amazing the defence is. Alvarez has been a disaster, which is disappointing. Drabek is getting by because of the GB rate nuking the runners but if he doesn't cut down the walks he's pretty worthless in the long run too. And the #5 spot is a joke.

-man, that is a case of sabremetrics gone crazy. While I agree that going forward, we may be in trouble, you can't argue with the results thus far. To say Romero, Alvarez and Drabek have been awful? "cmon man"

-I've been very pleased with KJ's D thus far. From the games I've seen, he has made more plays outside the norm than Rasmus.

madhatter04
05-21-2012, 01:33 PM
Rotation - Needs to become more consistent and stop walking guys, 4-5 walks a game isnt cutting it. Grade B-

Bull pen - With the exception of Cordero I give the pen a B. Generally they have gotten the job done, with a few slip ups earlier in the season. As the season moves on I see this being a real strength for this team. Grade B+

Hitting - Too many K's especially in the middle of the line up, they need to at least put the ball in play. Too many weak hitting guys on this team. We have at least 2 in this line up every night, Lind, Thames, Rasmus, Mathis, Francisco. Thames and Francisco need to go. Relying on the HR wont win many games. E5 is batting .195 in May. Finally Escobar and Bautista is warming up. Grade C+

Defense - Lot of great plays but a lot of errors. Cant have so many errors when your rotation is walking guys. You cant have Thames in LF if he isn't hitting the ball. He is a 4th OF at best. Grade B

Moves

Thames for Sierra - very good defender, excellent arm, with power!
Cooper for Francisco - Don't need another OF with Davis on the bench. Cooper doesnt K much, can take a walk and has very good contact, a guy that puts the ball in play.

wamco
05-21-2012, 01:57 PM
bulllpen= b?


they are the ones costing us 1st place. Damn I cant wait to sweep Baltt

Twitchy
05-21-2012, 02:03 PM
man, that is a case of sabremetrics gone crazy. While I agree that going forward, we may be in trouble, you can't argue with the results thus far. To say Romero, Alvarez and Drabek have been awful? "cmon man"

-I've been very pleased with KJ's D thus far. From the games I've seen, he has made more plays outside the norm than Rasmus.

I can argue with the results so far. Really not that hard. And I don't even need saber stats to do it.

Romero - A 3.64 ERA is slightly above average, yes. But he's now walked 14 in his last 17 innings. There's clearly an issue there. Even before that the walk rate was too high and the K rate was lower than last year. Not a good sign.

Drabek - Has walked nearly as many as he's struck out. 28 BB vs 38 K's. You're not gonna succeed doing that, and it's gonna bite him in the *** when his luck runs out. Let's not forget he started last year off well too, before all the walks came around to haunt him.

Alvarez - He has no breaking ball, no swing and miss pitch. At this point he's Jesse Litsch with more velocity. Games like last night against the Mets are going to happen more and more often because you can't rely that much on the defence. If you can't average 4-5 strikeouts per outing you're not going to succeed. Even guys like Lowe, Hudson and other extreme GB guys got 5-6 K/9. Alvarez is getting 2.

wamco
05-21-2012, 02:24 PM
and yet their results have been excellent. Noone, at least not me, is disputing their future success, but up until this point, I can't complain.

dballss
05-21-2012, 10:41 PM
we better be major buyers come trade time, we're good but not great

Toxeryll
05-21-2012, 11:00 PM
we better be major buyers come trade time, we're good but not great

yup we need a big bat and a good starter IMO

mtf
05-22-2012, 12:46 AM
yup we need a big bat and a good starter IMO

Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish would fit the bill.

damadmonk
05-22-2012, 02:09 AM
Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish would fit the bill.

$40 million dollars doesn't.

mtf
05-22-2012, 02:31 AM
$40 million dollars doesn't.

Why? Rogers is hurting for cash?

wamco
05-22-2012, 08:07 AM
hope 40M is no big deal as they are gonna have to shell out over 30M more per year since MLB welfare cut them off starting next season.

pebloemer
05-22-2012, 08:20 AM
But the Red Sox aren't any good...

They've been playing much better of late. 8-2 in their last 10 puts them back at .500. And this is while dealing with a plethora of injuries. I wouldn't write them off yet.

es0terik
05-23-2012, 02:51 AM
I never thought I'd say this but I've felt it ever since last September: the Red Sox are the most under-rated team in baseball.

Twitchy
05-23-2012, 08:57 AM
They've been playing much better of late. 8-2 in their last 10 puts them back at .500. And this is while dealing with a plethora of injuries. I wouldn't write them off yet.

They were never going to be a 200-300 win% team. Winning in the last 10 against Philly, Cleveland and Seattle doesn't make them a good team though.

For what it's worth I'm not saying this as a reaction to what happened this season as I've said since February they were an overrated team that isn't very good. They have no pitching, in the rotation or the bullpen. They have a strong lineup but that only gets you so far. There's no balance on the team.