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View Full Version : Draft Lottery Procedures: Tie-Breakers



Cal827
04-27-2012, 06:24 PM
A few threads have addressed the results of the tie-breakers, and I'll repost them:

Cleveland wins Tiebreaker over New Orleans (3/4)

Sacremento wins Tiebreaker over New Jersey (5/6)

Golden State wins Tiebreaker over Toronto (7/8)


The way that the results were obtained: Coin Flips. Although it is a unbiased way to determine the order, some teams might be annoyed that they drop because of a coin flip. So I'm curious what you guys think. Would you keep it the same, or would you prefer the splitting of the odd splits.

By the splitting I mean that each team would have equal odds at the top three picks. As well as picking at their slots or lower. For example, if miraculously a few teams move up from below them, Toronto and Golden State would have equal odds at picking in lower slots as well.

Another possible move would be to go on record tie-breakers.. The possible problem with this is that if it's a tie with two teams in different conferences, the head to head tiebreaker might not be enough. So it would likely be conference record first.

Thoughts? Remember, we are assuming that everything isn't rigged right off the bat..

kenzo400
04-27-2012, 06:35 PM
The draft lottery needs to change drastically. The amount of teams that tanked on purpose this season shows the problem with the system. When it comes down to actual players not trying hard enough, so their team gets better odds than something needs to be done. It's the equivalent of getting paid to throw a game.

The credibility of the league is in question and they really need to institute a better system. I wouldn't mind all non playoff teams being given the same chance. I know that isn't completely fair either, but then again its not the NBA's fault that teams like Charlotte exist. It's terrible owners like Jordan that get them in that position.

Cal827
04-27-2012, 07:30 PM
The draft lottery needs to change drastically. The amount of teams that tanked on purpose this season shows the problem with the system. When it comes down to actual players not trying hard enough, so their team gets better odds than something needs to be done. It's the equivalent of getting paid to throw a game.

The credibility of the league is in question and they really need to institute a better system. I wouldn't mind all non playoff teams being given the same chance. I know that isn't completely fair either, but then again its not the NBA's fault that teams like Charlotte exist. It's terrible owners like Jordan that get them in that position.

I understand your problems with it. I too, was annoyed with all of the tanking. Using Detroit record as an example. They finished 25-41 this season. In a regular season, they would be on pace for about 31-51. There's no way that 8 teams should finish worse than that. The issue I would have with the equal odds would be that people would get really mad if a team fighting for their playoff lives... just miss out, and end up with a franchise player. I mean, suppose that Lebron and Wade miss a big chunk of next season and Miami finishes 9th in the east. If they win the lottery and the projected top pick is god forbid a center, the rest of the league would go ballistic as the next season, they would have a healthy Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Center.

Another possible solution would be to guarantee that if a team is found tanking, they are guaranteed to fall to the lowest possible pick in the lottery. For example, if it was found that the Bobcats were tanking this season (On a serious note, I don't think they were exactly tanking, no team tanking would willingly make themselves worst team of all time), they would fall to 4th overall in the draft (since they are the projected 1st overall pick).

Example for this year: Yesterday in the tie-breaker game between the Nets and Raptors, the Nets rested Humphries, Wallace, have been resting Williams (uncertainty if he's gonna stay) and started Deshawn Stevenson at PF. Instead of picking 5th overall, they could automatically fall/be locked to 8th, with their percentages of winning being split among the legitimate lotto teams (assuming that they would be found tanking)...A bunch of teams could be in trouble for this though... But this issue might be brought up in the next CBA (you know, unless the same owners are on the bottom 5 years from now lol)

arkanian215
04-27-2012, 07:34 PM
0a

Cal827
04-27-2012, 07:41 PM
I think agents play a big part in who plays for teams down the stretch, especially guys who are probably gonna get large contracts this summer. Deron is opting out and neither he nor his agent is going to risk a 5 year 100+ deal for a team struggling to be the 8th worst team. Same goes for Hump. Gerald Wallace is opting out as well and we know how injury prone crash has been.

That may be true, but the odds of a catastrophic injury are minimum and probably could happen anywhere (torn ACL). I understand Wallace though. Humphries/Williams would likely recover from most bad injuries (E.g. Broken hand) in 6 months, when the next year starts and Williams would probably still get a max deal, even with a bad injury since we all saw what he could do lol

I'm sorry for using your team as an example, but since I'm a Raptor fan, their actions last night were most obvious to me (Stevenson at PF :laugh:). The Raptors aren't exactly innocent either... I believe they sat some guys too.

arkanian215
04-27-2012, 07:51 PM
0a

xILLN355
04-27-2012, 07:52 PM
i say ban the op
:hide:

Cal827
04-27-2012, 08:05 PM
:laugh:

fadeaway3s
04-27-2012, 08:22 PM
The odds of winning are actually still split. If you notice based on the article that was posted in the other thread. GS has 36 ping pong balls and the raptors have 35. (they split the difference). had the teams not tied there would be more than a .1% difference between winning the lottery for teams 7 and 8. The coin flip only means that if neither win GS gets 7th pick and the raps get 8th

edit: and in regards to tiebreaker being a flip of the coin vs. head to head record. The coin flip discourages tanking because teams don't know what will happen where as if they knew they'd win because of the head to head match up they would be mor elikely to chase a particular record that might leave them tied

nolafan33
04-27-2012, 08:38 PM
A coin flip is kind of silly.

In all honesty, the Hornets lost one chance because of a coin flip. That's nothing.

jimbobjarree
04-27-2012, 08:42 PM
that Sacramento/New Jersey one is deja vu from last year, weird.

kenzo400
04-27-2012, 09:35 PM
The issue I would have with the equal odds would be that people would get really mad if a team fighting for their playoff lives... just miss out, and end up with a franchise player.

I don't see why people should get mad. At the end of the day its about management. I don't believe the NBA needs to cater to losing teams because their GM cannot put together a good team. Jordan has been given enough chances and he's completely screwed up the Bobcats. I don't see why they are deserving of one of the top picks this year anymore than the Bucks.

The fact that they are a much worse team isn't a good enough reason.




I mean, suppose that Lebron and Wade miss a big chunk of next season and Miami finishes 9th in the east. If they win the lottery and the projected top pick is god forbid a center, the rest of the league would go ballistic as the next season, they would have a healthy Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Center.

This is a big "IF". Plus this scenario could happen even under the current rules. 13th or 14th worst team in the league could still win the lottery. It happened with the Bucks in the 2006 draft.

Their odds would be increased but the chances of this scenario happening in the first place is very unlikely.




Another possible solution would be to guarantee that if a team is found tanking, they are guaranteed to fall to the lowest possible pick in the lottery. For example, if it was found that the Bobcats were tanking this season (On a serious note, I don't think they were exactly tanking, no team tanking would willingly make themselves worst team of all time), they would fall to 4th overall in the draft (since they are the projected 1st overall pick).

There are many other ways to improve a team. In fact through the draft often doesn't work out as well as most hope. The Clippers had top ten picks in drafts for 20 years lol. They only got lucky with Griffin, and they still would have been a bad team had they not pulled the Chris Paul trade.

kenzo400
04-27-2012, 09:38 PM
The coin flip only means that if neither win GS gets 7th pick and the raps get 8th

Which is a "HUGE" difference. Because chances are that neither team will actually win. So GS picking 7 and Raptors 8 is probably going to be the case.

bholly
04-27-2012, 10:43 PM
Great news for GSW fans.