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View Full Version : Could the Jazz give the Spurs a run?



MiamiBoy77
04-24-2012, 11:29 PM
With a win tonight, the Jazz clinch the 8 seed in the West. Now many people have joked about the possibility of a Spurs Suns matchup and most people think there is almost no way the Suns win a game (i remember hearing I think Barry talking about it). But what about the Jazz?

They remind me alot of last years Grizz. The Jazz are better than your normal 8 seed. They have 3 VERY good bigs. They have a crafty point guard. And Heyward can play.

Im not saying the Jazz WILL beat the Spurs, Im saying they may give them a real run for their money.

shep33
04-24-2012, 11:33 PM
No chance. They have great size, but I don't know if people have noticed this, but the Spurs are so much better than last year.

Devin Harris has no chance against TP either

spurs4#5
04-24-2012, 11:45 PM
With a win tonight, the Jazz clinch the 8 seed in the West. Now many people have joked about the possibility of a Spurs Suns matchup and most people think there is almost no way the Suns win a game (i remember hearing I think Barry talking about it). But what about the Jazz?

They remind me alot of last years Grizz. The Jazz are better than your normal 8 seed. They have 3 VERY good bigs. They have a crafty point guard. And Heyward can play.

Im not saying the Jazz WILL beat the Spurs, Im saying they may give them a real run for their money.

they could barely beat the spurs with duncan, ginobili, and parker sitting out...dont let whats happening tonight fool you...the spurs would torch the jazz

Sadds The Gr8
04-24-2012, 11:57 PM
Depends on Devin Harris IMO. If he lets Tony Parker **** on him, then they have no chance. But if he can play well, the Jazz can take it to 6 or 7.

Cal827
04-24-2012, 11:58 PM
:laugh: I've got a better chance gaining a third testicle.

Raps08-09 Champ
04-24-2012, 11:59 PM
They could give some fits with their big man depth.


I expect the Suns in the playoffs though.

goose14741
04-25-2012, 12:02 AM
With a win tonight, the Jazz clinch the 8 seed in the West. Now many people have joked about the possibility of a Spurs Suns matchup and most people think there is almost no way the Suns win a game (i remember hearing I think Barry talking about it). But what about the Jazz?

They remind me alot of last years Grizz. The Jazz are better than your normal 8 seed. They have 3 VERY good bigs. They have a crafty point guard. And Heyward can play.

Im not saying the Jazz WILL beat the Spurs, Im saying they may give them a real run for their money.

um nnot cool? dude you stole my idea that i never told anyone haha yes they do have a chance, ive been saying to myself that big al is this years zeebo, ppl say no chance but they'll see, big al has been coming up big and is automatic in the 4th the past couple of weeks

Blitzbolt
04-25-2012, 12:07 AM
I really think they have a chance they are pretty big and if they attack Bonner/Splitter and Blair I think they could take the Spurs to 7.

Big Al is ZBO like dowlow.

ManningToTyree
04-25-2012, 12:11 AM
No way. Spurs won't get upset in the 1st round again. I would not expect the series to exceed 5 games

DR_1
04-25-2012, 12:36 AM
I really think they have a chance they are pretty big and if they attack Bonner/Splitter and Blair I think they could take the Spurs to 7.

Big Al is ZBO like dowlow.

Agreed.

TRF929
04-25-2012, 12:36 AM
Not a chance, Spurs are just on another level than they were last year. Jazz struggled to win against the Spurs when they sat the big 3, let alone with em (I'm sure they thanked the refs for that game). Either way they have no chance, and if anyone thinks so I would gladly make a kind bet with you somehow or another

Raph12
04-25-2012, 12:38 AM
TP is going to destroy those guys and it will be a great tuneup series for the Spurs, gets them ready for LAC/Memphis.

mdm692
04-25-2012, 12:40 AM
michael redd sighting :D

TRF929
04-25-2012, 12:41 AM
They may have some good bigs, but the Spurs will run them all down with Parker, Manu, Neal, Green, Capt. Jack, even Patty Mill. Spurs guards are really good and Utah has no match against any of em

spurs4#5
04-25-2012, 12:45 AM
the spurs destroyed the lakers the past two meetings and bynum and gasol are a lot better than any bigs the jazz can throw at the spurs

tmacmamba
04-25-2012, 01:03 AM
The Jazz are a well balanced team and they just might take the Spurs to 6 but that's as far as they will go because the Spurs are stronger and better than last year and have crazy depth.

Jayrich28
04-25-2012, 01:06 AM
The jazz can still move to 7th if dallas loses to atl and jazz win their last game

jimbobjarree
04-25-2012, 01:15 AM
I expect the Suns in the playoffs though.

Big Al just took a huge dump on your expectations

BlondeBomber41
04-25-2012, 01:23 AM
No question they can give the Spurs some trouble.

1. Millsap, Jefferson, Favors are all very good big men who will give the Spurs front court some trouble. If Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Darrell Arthur killed the Spurs I don't see how Millsap/Jefferson/Favors is any different.

2. Gordon Hayward has turned into a beast. Great shooter, scorer and a good passer.

3. Devin Harris is playing really well and when Harris was a Maverick he always played his best against Tony Parker and the Spurs. It's one of the biggest reasons alot of Mavs fans were pissed we traded him, because he always smoked the Spurs and his speed/size at PG helped somewhat contain Tony Parker. Interestingly enough, Josh Howard always played his best against the Spurs, and he comes off the bench for Utah.

Am I saying Utah will beat San Antonio? No. Am I saying they have a shot? Absolutely. The NBA is about matchups, not about who is in what seed.

Giraffes Rule
04-25-2012, 01:24 AM
Nope. The Spurs won pretty easily against the Jazz earlier, then barely lost the next matchup without the big 3. They're nowhere near the Grizzlies' level from last year, and the Spurs are much better (and healthy) than they were last year as well.

J4KOP99
04-25-2012, 01:27 AM
TP is playing the best ball of his life. Duncan is healthy/rested and is playing better than he has down the stretch this year than any other season over the last 3 or 4 yars. Manu is healthy.

The spurs are arguably the deepest team in the playoffs and have found a way to get younger while still keeping their core in tact. They can hit 3's, get penetration, and have a reliable post presence.

Unlike last year, when they were unhealthy and clearly rundown, this team is a serious contender.

---oh yeah, and they have the best coach currently doin' it.

Jazz may get swept.

J4KOP99
04-25-2012, 01:28 AM
The jazz can still move to 7th if dallas loses to atl and jazz win their last game

really? a Dallas v. SAS 1st round match up would be great.

spurs4#5
04-25-2012, 01:43 AM
really? a Dallas v. SAS 1st round match up would be great.

no dallas would move up to 6th and denver would move down to 8th

Jayrich28
04-25-2012, 01:46 AM
Yeah denver would have to lose not dallas

J4KOP99
04-25-2012, 01:50 AM
no dallas would move up to 6th and denver would move down to 8th

den. v. sas would be interesting too. So if Dallas loses and Utah wins, Dallas has the tiebreaker?

spurs4#5
04-25-2012, 01:54 AM
against playoff teams this year the spurs are 25 and 9

Jayrich28
04-25-2012, 01:57 AM
den. v. sas would be interesting too. So if Dallas loses and Utah wins, Dallas has the tiebreaker?

Must be.....denver plays at okc and min so I guess the 6-8 seeds will be decided on which team denver feels they can beat btw la, okc, and sa

Jayrich28
04-25-2012, 02:06 AM
Only thing I might add is that whoever plays utah betta be ready cuz utah has ben playing playoff ball all month just to get in....all the multi ot games and elimination games they have played they playing with a ton of confidence.

Lakerhead4ever
04-25-2012, 02:10 AM
the spurs destroyed the lakers the past two meetings and bynum and gasol are a lot better than any bigs the jazz can throw at the spurs

what does the lakers have to do with this thread? I hope your not getting carried away with those two wins you guys got.

and also the jazz have size and shooters, and great athleticism from their young guys. Only thing they lack is experience, which is why they will fall to the spurs in no more than 6 games

Baller1
04-25-2012, 02:14 AM
Sorry, but I don't think Utah wins a game.

iam brett favre
04-25-2012, 02:16 AM
:laugh: I've got a better chance gaining a third testicle.

This will be in my sig forever when the Jazz beat them.

Jarvo
04-25-2012, 07:42 AM
They maybe can make it close, But Spurs win.

Patman
04-25-2012, 08:20 AM
what does the lakers have to do with this thread? I hope your not getting carried away with those two wins you guys got.

and also the jazz have size and shooters, and great athleticism from their young guys. Only thing they lack is experience, which is why they will fall to the spurs in no more than 6 games

They have Size yes but their Starting PF is not exactly Big at 6-8. And where do you get that they have good shooters? There is 1 Guy that shoots over 40% from 3PT range, no other player that actually takes more then 1 Attempt a game comes close.

Look the Spurs are my favorite Team and UTAH is my 2nd favorite Team. Naturally I hope that the Jazz can get to the 7th seed to avoid that 1st round matchup. But if it comes to that i can't see the Jazz beating the Spurs.

Raps08-09 Champ
04-25-2012, 08:45 AM
Big Al just took a huge dump on your expectations

:shrug:

I thought the Suns would step up but they didn't.

It is what it is.

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 08:47 AM
I really think they have a chance they are pretty big and if they attack Bonner/Splitter and Blair I think they could take the Spurs to 7.

Big Al is ZBO like dowlow.

I'd be shocked if it goes to 6 games. Diaw/Splitter are very solid defensively and offensively. You keep thinking it's Bonner/Blair going to get the minutes cause that's what you saw vs the Grizz last year. Last year is not this year just in case your forgot

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 08:50 AM
No question they can give the Spurs some trouble.

1. Millsap, Jefferson, Favors are all very good big men who will give the Spurs front court some trouble. If Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Darrell Arthur killed the Spurs I don't see how Millsap/Jefferson/Favors is any different.

2. Gordon Hayward has turned into a beast. Great shooter, scorer and a good passer.

3. Devin Harris is playing really well and when Harris was a Maverick he always played his best against Tony Parker and the Spurs. It's one of the biggest reasons alot of Mavs fans were pissed we traded him, because he always smoked the Spurs and his speed/size at PG helped somewhat contain Tony Parker. Interestingly enough, Josh Howard always played his best against the Spurs, and he comes off the bench for Utah.

Am I saying Utah will beat San Antonio? No. Am I saying they have a shot? Absolutely. The NBA is about matchups, not about who is in what seed.

Like I said...Last year is not this year. Pop played Blair/Bonner on Zach/Gasol. What else would you expect? Diaw/Splitter are light years ahead of them defensively. (In fact Bonner is better than Blair which says a lot) Not to sound cocky, but no Utah has no shot.

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 08:51 AM
The jazz can still move to 7th if dallas loses to atl and jazz win their last game

Good point

Blitzbolt
04-25-2012, 09:52 AM
I'd be shocked if it goes to 6 games. Diaw/Splitter are very solid defensively and offensively. You keep thinking it's Bonner/Blair going to get the minutes cause that's what you saw vs the Grizz last year. Last year is not this year just in case your forgot

First it was Mcdyess Duncan.And second Splitter and Diaw are solid but not enough to stop BIGS in the West.

MrfadeawayJB
04-25-2012, 09:56 AM
They will play well in the paint as did my grizz last year. Defense is not as good as the grizz, and dont forget this is not the same spurs team as last year

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 10:00 AM
First it was Mcdyess Duncan.And second Splitter and Diaw are solid but not enough to stop BIGS in the West.

They seem to have done a good job thus far vs LA and Memphis and Utah (since apparently you consider them a serious threat)

And Dice was in foul trouble often and there was a TON of times it was Bonner/Blair in there. Diaw is big enough and quick to stay in front of most bigs and Splitter is tall enough and quick enough to stay in front. Maybe not strong enough, but they can get the job done. Surely better than Bonner/Blair did last year

jimbobjarree
04-25-2012, 10:11 AM
Sorry, but I don't think Utah wins a game.

I appreciate your apology

tcav701
04-25-2012, 10:21 AM
Hollinger thinks Utah has a better shot at winning the title.

And hes a genius........

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 10:25 AM
Hollinger thinks Utah has a better shot at winning the title.

And hes a genius........

Better shot than who? :confused:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

THE_FLASH_21
04-25-2012, 10:40 AM
:laugh: I've got a better chance gaining a third testicle.


SMH :facepalm: Whatever funny guy. It sucks when people try to be funny on PSD and aren't. And you sir AREN'T... anything is possible. No number 1 seed is ever untouchable. It's going to be a great series and great games throughout..

KB-Pau-DH2012
04-25-2012, 10:45 AM
In a 7 game series, I still don't trust the frontcourt of old Duncan (on his last legs), Splitter, undersized ACL-man Blair, and not physical 3 pt shooting big man Bonner.

The youth, power, speed, and athleticism of Jazz bigs can be very overwhelming.


It depends if Raja Bell can come back healthy and try to do some damage defensively on either Parker or Ginobili, but that's asking too much for him.

THE_FLASH_21
04-25-2012, 10:47 AM
Like I said...Last year is not this year. Pop played Blair/Bonner on Zach/Gasol. What else would you expect? Diaw/Splitter are light years ahead of them defensively. (In fact Bonner is better than Blair which says a lot) Not to sound cocky, but no Utah has no shot.



No shot?? WOW.. can you tell me the winning lotto numbers for tomorrow?? SMH
Utah is much younger and more athletic.. ANything can happen... To say a team has no shot is really ignorant.. Will the Spurs win? probably man... but will it be a real good series?? 6 or 7 games?? Yea maybe

Baller1
04-25-2012, 10:48 AM
I appreciate your apology

Anything for you jimbob.

tcav701
04-25-2012, 10:48 AM
Better shot than who? :confused:

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Utah's championship odds are identical the Lakers.

It was actually higher yesterday.

RaiderLakersA's
04-25-2012, 10:51 AM
The Jazz will compete, but I don't see any surprises in the first round. They really should take them back to the 5 game format for the first round. Fast forward to the second round, please. Spurs got this.

pakyofivetimes
04-25-2012, 10:56 AM
Nah nah. The Grizz can't be compared to the Jazz. If you remember their line-up, they have all-star cast just like Gay and Mayo plus M.Gasol. So I think the Jazz will never have a long run in playoffs.

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 10:57 AM
No shot?? WOW.. can you tell me the winning lotto numbers for tomorrow?? SMH
Utah is much younger and more athletic.. ANything can happen... To say a team has no shot is really ignorant.. Will the Spurs win? probably man... but will it be a real good series?? 6 or 7 games?? Yea maybe

Easy there tiger... SA almost won in Utah without Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili playing. They're playing at a different level right now. So when I say it I don't mean it to sound like a d**k, but just being a realist.

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 10:58 AM
Utah's championship odds are identical the Lakers.

It was actually higher yesterday.

LOL... Hollinger's formula's are weird. I don't even pretend to understand them

FraziersKnicks
04-25-2012, 11:04 AM
:laugh: I've got a better chance gaining a third testicle.

:laugh2:

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 11:08 AM
In a 7 game series, I still don't trust the frontcourt of old Duncan (on his last legs), Splitter, undersized ACL-man Blair, and not physical 3 pt shooting big man Bonner.

The youth, power, speed, and athleticism of Jazz bigs can be very overwhelming.


It depends if Raja Bell can come back healthy and try to do some damage defensively on either Parker or Ginobili, but that's asking too much for him.

You can say this for a bunch of teams. "can you trust Bynum's legs?" "Can you trust chicago's role players" "can you trust Lebron in the clutch" the list goes on. But SA has the top seed without trying, keeping Duncan fresh and in case you haven't watched him much he's in the best shape of his career physically. Not to mention Diaw has been a pleasant surprise on the defensive end as well.

And BTW, Bonner has improved a great deal defensively to the point that he's ahead of Blair in the rotation against bigger teams. I know people like to go off what they hear on ESPN, or go off last year, but this team has improved in terms of defending the post.

"The Spurs have actually done quite well against post-up plays this season. They rank 10th in points allowed per possession on post-ups, and opponents devote about 10 percent of their possessions against San Antonio to post-up chances, a league-average rate, per Synergy Sports. Opposing players are shooting an almost-unbelievable 26.5 percent (18-of-65) man to man against Bonner in the post. They have torched Blair to the tune of 51 percent in the post, and if recent lineup patterns are an indication, Blair may see his role cut during the playoffs — at least against some potential opponents."

http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/04/18/san-antonios-big-weakness-in-post/

Lo Porto
04-25-2012, 11:21 AM
Jazz fan here. The Spurs should win this series pretty handily. They have more experience, more talent (at this point in their careers) and the home court advantage. If the series goes to 6, I'd be surprised.

I'm not being a negative Jazz fan, but the Spurs are healthier, deeper and won't make the same mistakes as last postseason. And the NBA liked the idea of Memphis last year so things were called even. With Manu, Parker and Duncan playing, Utah won't get 50-50 from the refs. This will frustrate a very young roster when they don't get calls when they are obviously fouled or they get called for bogus fouls, and Utah will get out of games mentally.

The series will probably end 4-1 San Antonio.

RaiderLakersA's
04-25-2012, 11:22 AM
LOL... Hollinger's formula's are weird. I don't even pretend to understand them

I don't even think Hollinger understands them. But Pullingitoutofyourasstics is a rare analytical discipline that only few master...and most of the creme de la creme who do are employed by ESPN in their elite Fullashitology wing. Truly this is the pinnacle of sports science, and ESPN has it! Kudos to them.

whitvalid
04-25-2012, 12:03 PM
Those stats are sweet.

Utah has a .9% chance of winning the championship.

By my calculations this makes Utah thirteen and a half million times more likely to win the championship than I was to win the mega millions, and I was pretty damn close to that so…… UTAH JAZZ 2012 NBA CHAMPIONS

[ .09 / (1/150,000,000) = 13,500,000 ]

todu82
04-25-2012, 12:12 PM
I think the Jazz win a game in the series but that'd be it. The Spurs will win such a series in 4 or 5 games.

Patman
04-25-2012, 01:22 PM
LOL... Hollinger's formula's are weird. I don't even pretend to understand them

It's not that strange if you understand how his predictor works. The input are the Power rankings from Hollinger. Which are based on record and more importantly on the margin of Victory and SOS (Strength of Schedule). It weighs the results of more recent games higher (the last 25% of games played totally). The Lakers margin is exactly 0.0 over the last 25% whereas Utahs margin is +3.4 with a slightly lower SOS. That leads to his Simulation giving the Jazz the Same chance (A PC/Server runs 5000 Simulation each night).

You may disagree with how he weights margin and SOS versus actual record, but the whole method is solid and transparent.

The Spurs have by far the highest chance because the last 25% of their games had a +13.8 (the next best team has 7.2) their SOS is a bit low but since the margin gap is so high it is not enough to counter it. Especially if you consider their high SOS for the whole season with a +7.2 margin. I would take the prediction with a huge grain of salt, since actual Playoff outcomes are pretty hard to predict.

futureman
04-25-2012, 01:50 PM
The jazz will be lucky to win 2 games against the spurs and this is coming from a huge jazz homer.

Those 2 wins will only come is if the devistatingly good defensive lineup of Favors, Millsap and Jefferson can play the way they have played the last 2 weeks.

Missing56&33
04-25-2012, 02:09 PM
Anything is possible in the playoffs. I would like to see if Al Jefferson and Devin Harris can take their respective games' to another level and win a few games in the playoffs.

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 02:14 PM
It's not that strange if you understand how his predictor works. The input are the Power rankings from Hollinger. Which are based on record and more importantly on the margin of Victory and SOS (Strength of Schedule). It weighs the results of more recent games higher (the last 25% of games played totally). The Lakers margin is exactly 0.0 over the last 25% whereas Utahs margin is +3.4 with a slightly lower SOS. That leads to his Simulation giving the Jazz the Same chance (A PC/Server runs 5000 Simulation each night).

You may disagree with how he weights margin and SOS versus actual record, but the whole method is solid and transparent.

The Spurs have by far the highest chance because the last 25% of their games had a +13.8 (the next best team has 7.2) their SOS is a bit low but since the margin gap is so high it is not enough to counter it. Especially if you consider their high SOS for the whole season with a +7.2 margin. I would take the prediction with a huge grain of salt, since actual Playoff outcomes are pretty hard to predict.

Thanks for explaining it. I've read how he does it, but don't usually pay it any mind. I respect it cause it's pretty cool, and fun for fans to use, but agree it holds no barrings as to what happens come post season

Joshtd1
04-25-2012, 02:19 PM
I like the Jazz mainly Big Al, but I think this series is 5 games maybe 6.

I just don't like the comparisons to the Grizz who actually tanked to get us when they could have been higher. Jazz don't have as good of a backcourt as the Grizz and Milsap/Al Jeff isn't as good as Z-Bo/Gasol last year.

Even if Al Jeff gets his 20, he is no where as close to as good as a defender as Gasol who did a damn good job on Duncan.

Giraffes Rule
04-25-2012, 02:33 PM
I like the Jazz mainly Big Al, but I think this series is 5 games maybe 6.

I just don't like the comparisons to the Grizz who actually tanked to get us when they could have been higher. Jazz don't have as good of a backcourt as the Grizz and Milsap/Al Jeff isn't as good as Z-Bo/Gasol last year.

Even if Al Jeff gets his 20, he is no where as close to as good as a defender as Gasol who did a damn good job on Duncan.

What people also seem to forget is that Duncan wasn't even healthy for the series against the Grizzlies. He tweaked his knee and rushed back for the playoffs and didn't have the speed he does this year. Even when he was healthy last year, he's playing better than that this year.

I also don't get how you can compare the Jazz frontcourt to the Grizzlies front court. The Jazz have depth, but they don't have anyone that's even close to bringing the defensive presence of Gasol. Al Jefferson isn't going to be able to stop Duncan all by himself, and then you can hit him with Diaw and Splitter as well. Splitter's feet move way too fast for Jefferson to handle. Favors is good, but very inconsistent and Millsap isn't exactly a towering presence in the paint. The Jazz don't have the talent to push the Spurs.

Patman
04-25-2012, 02:54 PM
Thanks for explaining it. I've read how he does it, but don't usually pay it any mind. I respect it cause it's pretty cool, and fun for fans to use, but agree it holds no barrings as to what happens come post season
Yeah i think it's nice to have a look at, and for who makes the playoffs it's not that bad as a predictor, but like all those systems it has it's flaws. SRS, a combination of SOS and margin can be a decent predictor for playoffs. But Matchups, hot streaks, slumps and injuries also play a role.

To put it in perspective in 65% of the Simulations the Spurs didn't win the title. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that the other 35% were right :)

JayW_1023
04-25-2012, 03:11 PM
I like this Spurs team a lot but I am through making bold statements. Wait an' see.

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 03:24 PM
I like this Spurs team a lot but I am through making bold statements. Wait an' see.

I'm joining you on that! :cheers:

Jumba
04-25-2012, 03:33 PM
I think defensively, and this is currently, that Favors has a bigger presence than Marc. If I need to reference anything, I will refer to Favors making a 15 and 10 man into a shell of himself last night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiGIbsc3oxE

LeonFSU
04-25-2012, 03:46 PM
For the Jazz to compete and win more than one game they will need some guys to step up and play significantly better than over the course of the season. Specifically they'll need Harris, Howard, and especially Favors to play their best basketball.

And anyone counting on Diaw to do anything more than play adequate post defense and make a few passes will be disappointed. He is huge, I'd be shocked if he could be a difference maker as out of shape as he is.

LeonFSU
04-25-2012, 03:47 PM
I think defensively, and this is currently, that Favors has a bigger presence than Marc. If I need to reference anything, I will refer to Favors making a 15 and 10 man into a shell of himself last night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiGIbsc3oxE

I don't know if Favors can be consistent, but his athleticism could cause any teams problems. I'd love to see him make a leap in the playoffs.

Jumba
04-25-2012, 03:49 PM
I don't know if Favors can be consistent, but his athleticism could cause any teams problems. I'd love to see him make a leap in the playoffs.

Recently in the past five or so games Favors has been on a tear. Averaging a double double, his confidence is peaking at the right time. I hope to see him not get in foul trouble which is the bane of his poor play. But I would love for him to destroy Timmy like he did Gortat.

LeonFSU
04-25-2012, 03:59 PM
Recently in the past five or so games Favors has been on a tear. Averaging a double double, his confidence is peaking at the right time. I hope to see him not get in foul trouble which is the bane of his poor play. But I would love for him to destroy Timmy like he did Gortat.

To me, the biggest thing that will hold him back is his playing time. I don't see Millsap at SF working very well against the Spurs.

nothappyinut
04-25-2012, 04:19 PM
Millsap guarded Rudy just fine and I don't see anyone on the spurs with Rudy gays ability at the 3 I think people will all underestimate Millsap at the 3 spot but if you look at the numbers they tell a different story. In about 150 mins when big al Millsap and favors all play together the Jazz are 304 to 232 points scored. That's holding a team to about 75 a night the league best is celtics and they are ten points higher. I'm not saying they can do it night in night out but I think they can come close. Favors is a game changer and if you watch the jazz you'd know. Favors is Dwight Howard but more advanced on offense then he was at this point of his career.

JayW_1023
04-25-2012, 04:26 PM
I don't understand why Millsap can't be a super sub. It's not like Al jefferson doesn't end up with 2 fouls with 10 minutes to play in the first quarter 80 percent of the time.

Joshtd1
04-25-2012, 04:55 PM
I think defensively, and this is currently, that Favors has a bigger presence than Marc. If I need to reference anything, I will refer to Favors making a 15 and 10 man into a shell of himself last night.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiGIbsc3oxE

As much as I like Gortat, a lot of his ability come from Nash. I believe 80% of his baskets are assisted. Anyway no Favors is no where near the level of defender Marc Gasol is currently. He may be a better shot blocker and may over time become a better defender, but Gasol is better then him. As someone else said though he needs more time to develop his true potential.

TRF929
04-25-2012, 05:08 PM
I'll say this real quick, I agree anything can happen in the playoffs, possibly the 4 top seeds getting beaten but I'm more confident of the Spurs coming out of the 1st round than either LA team or OKC. There's a chance but an improbable one if you watched how the Spurs played this season

tcav701
04-25-2012, 05:15 PM
It's not that strange if you understand how his predictor works. The input are the Power rankings from Hollinger. Which are based on record and more importantly on the margin of Victory and SOS (Strength of Schedule). It weighs the results of more recent games higher (the last 25% of games played totally). The Lakers margin is exactly 0.0 over the last 25% whereas Utahs margin is +3.4 with a slightly lower SOS. That leads to his Simulation giving the Jazz the Same chance (A PC/Server runs 5000 Simulation each night).

You may disagree with how he weights margin and SOS versus actual record, but the whole method is solid and transparent.

The Spurs have by far the highest chance because the last 25% of their games had a +13.8 (the next best team has 7.2) their SOS is a bit low but since the margin gap is so high it is not enough to counter it. Especially if you consider their high SOS for the whole season with a +7.2 margin. I would take the prediction with a huge grain of salt, since actual Playoff outcomes are pretty hard to predict.


The Celtics chances of making the finals went up 5% because they beat the heat bench last night.

The man is a fluke.

Joshtd1
04-25-2012, 05:15 PM
And it's not even guaranteed the Spurs face the Jazz. Slim chance, but still one we play the Nuggets.

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 06:24 PM
For the Jazz to compete and win more than one game they will need some guys to step up and play significantly better than over the course of the season. Specifically they'll need Harris, Howard, and especially Favors to play their best basketball.

And anyone counting on Diaw to do anything more than play adequate post defense and make a few passes will be disappointed. He is huge, I'd be shocked if he could be a difference maker as out of shape as he is.

Clearly you haven't watched the guy play in a Spurs uniform! He's anything but out of shape.

LeonFSU
04-25-2012, 06:35 PM
Clearly you haven't watched the guy play in a Spurs uniform! He's anything but out of shape.

You're right, I haven't seen him play more than a couple of times since he signed with the Spurs. But he was really out of shape when he played for Charlotte. And he was just playing terribly as well. It doesn't seem like he's been producing much for the Spurs yet either.

I still think he was a good signing, and if he played the way he has last year and and in Phoenix, he could be a huge difference maker. But he has had a bad year overall.

kdspurman
04-25-2012, 10:06 PM
You're right, I haven't seen him play more than a couple of times since he signed with the Spurs. But he was really out of shape when he played for Charlotte. And he was just playing terribly as well. It doesn't seem like he's been producing much for the Spurs yet either.

I still think he was a good signing, and if he played the way he has last year and and in Phoenix, he could be a huge difference maker. But he has had a bad year overall.

When we signed him I thought the same as you believe me :laugh2:. Another fat ***** to compete with Blair. I've been VERY surprised w/his quickness and footwork

Giraffes Rule
04-25-2012, 10:11 PM
You're right, I haven't seen him play more than a couple of times since he signed with the Spurs. But he was really out of shape when he played for Charlotte. And he was just playing terribly as well. It doesn't seem like he's been producing much for the Spurs yet either.

I still think he was a good signing, and if he played the way he has last year and and in Phoenix, he could be a huge difference maker. But he has had a bad year overall.

His production comes in defense and his passing. He really fits into the offense extremely well, and his chemistry with Tony and IQ and playoff experience is gonna be valuable. He also has hit shots when he's the best option, he just doesn't take many shots.

For the record, I was in the same boat as KD. I figured Diaw would just get garbage minutes, and now I think he's the best choice to start next to Duncan.

24/8
04-25-2012, 10:17 PM
Jazz will definitely beat the spurs if they meet up in the first round.

Last year told the real story-the spurs are not built for the playoffs. They better pray real hard that they dont have to face the Grizzlies if, by some miracle, they happen to squeak by Utah.

The Grizz are a matchup nightmare for the spurs.

Jayrich28
04-25-2012, 10:26 PM
Jazz vs spurs official denver beat okc

BlondeBomber41
04-25-2012, 11:30 PM
The Spurs depend alot on the 3 point shot as well. If they were to go cold they would be in real trouble against a team built to pound it inside.

Jumi
04-26-2012, 01:13 AM
The Spurs don't depend on the three point shot, they depend on the open shot! It's called ball movement, my friend! I really don't think many of these posters have actually watched the Spurs play this year!!

BlondeBomber41
04-26-2012, 02:07 AM
The Spurs don't depend on the three point shot, they depend on the open shot! It's called ball movement, my friend! I really don't think many of these posters have actually watched the Spurs play this year!!

Yeah, I've watched them play PLENTY. Danny Green, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, Manu Ginobili, Stephen Jackson, even Kawhi Leonard.... leads to alot of 3 pointers attempted. They are 7th in the league in attempts and 1st in the league in percentage, which goes back to my point. If they were to cool off for a stretch it could lead to some trouble for them.

billsftw
04-26-2012, 02:08 AM
i like the spurs so i hope they make it to the wcf

kdspurman
04-26-2012, 09:05 AM
Yeah, I've watched them play PLENTY. Danny Green, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, Manu Ginobili, Stephen Jackson, even Kawhi Leonard.... leads to alot of 3 pointers attempted. They are 7th in the league in attempts and 1st in the league in percentage, which goes back to my point. If they were to cool off for a stretch it could lead to some trouble for them.

They're also +7.1 in points in the paint (which ranks 5th) and +7.0 in Outside points the paint (which ranks 6th). This team attacks you in a variety of ways. They won plenty of games where they struggled from 3 because they've got a dependable post presence, and 2 of the best when it comes to attacking their basket. The only reason they take a ton of 3's is because when Tony/Manu are driving they're wide open!

Cooling off will not cause trouble like it did last year. Last year was literally live by the 3 and die by the 3. I remember several games where they shot poorly from 3 and still won.

Becks2307
04-26-2012, 09:15 AM
the spurs had one of the most amazing seasons ever, so many players so much teamwork, love it.

SanAntonioSpurs23
04-26-2012, 10:29 AM
I'm pretty sure I said back in Febuary that Diaw would be bought out and join the Spurs where he will start come PO time. It's somewhere in the Spurs forum, anyway Diaw is not out of shape and he's going to help a lot. He doesn't need to score for us, we have plenty of guys who can score. Diaw has a very high basketball IQ, is a solid defender, and a great passer. This isn't Charlottes Diaw. Anyway not to take anything away from the Jazz because they have some young talent, but the Spurs are just playing out of their minds. If the Spurs continue the way they have been playing they win in 5.

Antwerp_nr1
04-26-2012, 10:54 AM
It's the playoffs, strange stuff happens. However this year I think the spurs will come with extra determination because of last years nightmare.

Jdawg
04-26-2012, 10:58 AM
The Spurs just beat a Suns team with out our Big 4 (including Pop). The same Suns team that was competing with the Jazz a night earlier. Obviously I am a big Spurs fan, but objectively I can't see the Jazz giving the Spurs a good run. We may lose Game 1 due to rust, otherwise I think it should be 4-0.

daboywonder2002
04-26-2012, 01:03 PM
yes the jazz will give the spurs a run. because they are gonna give spurs same problems memphis did. INSIDE SCORING AND REBOUNDING. yes, kawil and jackson are great additions. but they aren't bigs. if devin harris can stay in attack mode and go right back at parker. if jefferson/milsap can duplicate what gasol/randolph did last year. you damn right they have a chance

dhopisthename
04-26-2012, 01:10 PM
if run means get lucky for 1-2 wins sure jazz have an awesome home court advantage, but no chance the jazz can win the series unless like tp and manu get hurt

TRF929
04-26-2012, 01:33 PM
yes the jazz will give the spurs a run. because they are gonna give spurs same problems memphis did. INSIDE SCORING AND REBOUNDING. yes, kawil and jackson are great additions. but they aren't bigs. if devin harris can stay in attack mode and go right back at parker. if jefferson/milsap can duplicate what gasol/randolph did last year. you damn right they have a chance

Thats a lot of IF right there. Here's an IF for ya, if Duncan continues playing at the level he's been playing at, it doesn't matter how many IFs the Jazz have, they'll have no chance. Jazz def is no where near what MEM had last year and the Spurs have learned to play different with bigger teams, as this year has shown. Spurs blowing out LAL which have 2 very dominant big men, provides justification for my reason. MEM being swept this year also shows that

DaVille
04-26-2012, 01:44 PM
nope, 5game series max. Spurs too strong this year.

Jdawg
04-26-2012, 06:31 PM
If Manu is healthy, no team in the West is beating us. Manu wasn't healthy against Memphis.

JayW_1023
04-26-2012, 06:48 PM
Neither was Duncan, for that matter. People have short memories.

kdspurman
04-26-2012, 06:51 PM
Neither was Duncan, for that matter. People have short memories.

Hobbled in to the playoffs. The whole team did basically, had a 6 game losing streak, finished 4-8 in our lat 12 games. Memphis wasn't stupid they saw all that happening. It's amazing how people keep assuming last year has anything to do with this year

beasted86
04-26-2012, 06:54 PM
I honestly don't see the Jazz winning a game. No joke, no hate.