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View Full Version : Hollinger's chances for teams to the Finals



NYSpirit1
04-22-2012, 05:48 PM
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds/_/sort/champsOdds

He has San Antonio as the favorites at 30.2%, Oklahoma City at 20.7%, Chicago at 13.5%, the Heat at 10.9% and the Knicks at 4.9%.

tcav701
04-22-2012, 05:51 PM
I dont get this dude.

The Celtics have a higher chance of making the finals than the Knicks, but the Kicks have a better chance of winning the championship than the Celtics?

Makes no sense lol.

Blitzbolt
04-22-2012, 05:54 PM
Grizzlies 1.7 -_-

bholly
04-22-2012, 06:17 PM
NYSpirit,
You don't need to make a thread for every thought that comes into your head.

Signed,
Everyone


I dont get this dude.

The Celtics have a higher chance of making the finals than the Knicks, but the Kicks have a better chance of winning the championship than the Celtics?

Makes no sense lol.

Makes plenty of sense.

Simple explanation - it thinks the Knicks are better (#5 in rankings compared to Celt's #6), but thinks they have a harder path to the finals (most likely #4 Miami then #8 Indy then #3 Chicago for NYK, while Celtics project to most likely have #9 Atlanta then #3 Chicago then #8 Miami, which is easier because of the Atlanta/Indy difference).

His odds essentially say NYK have a 45% chance of winning if they get to the finals, while Boston have a 33.6% chance of winning if they get to the finals - because it thinks the Knicks are better.
But even though it thinks the Knicks are better, they only have a 10.9% chance of making it through their tougher playoff matchups to get to the finals in the first place, while the worse Celtics have a 12.2% chance of making it through their easier ones.
The Knicks 45% - 33.6% difference in likelihood of winning a finals series overcomes their lesser likelihood of making it in the first place, to give them a .45 * .109 = 4.9% chance of winning a championship, while it gives Boston a .336 * .122 = 4.1% chance of winning a championship.

kozelkid
04-22-2012, 06:17 PM
I dont get this dude.

The Celtics have a higher chance of making the finals than the Knicks, but the Kicks have a better chance of winning the championship than the Celtics?

Makes no sense lol.

What's there not to get?

By the way, this is all formulas before someone gets pissed off on why their favorite team is being "shafted" by Hollinger again... :rolleyes:

Super.
04-22-2012, 06:20 PM
I dont get this dude.

The Celtics have a higher chance of making the finals than the Knicks, but the Kicks have a better chance of winning the championship than the Celtics?

Makes no sense lol.

It makes sense. He thinks that the Celtics match up better against East opponents better than the Knicks do, and the Knicks better against the team that comes out of the west.

tcav701
04-22-2012, 06:25 PM
It makes sense. He thinks that the Celtics match up better against East opponents better than the Knicks do, and the Knicks better against the team that comes out of the west.

Still doesnt change the fact that you have to make the finals to win them. The same confusion would have occurred if any two same conference teams had those same percentages.

What is this guys accuracy on his predictions BTW?

bholly
04-22-2012, 06:29 PM
Still doesnt change the fact that you have to make the finals to win them. The same confusion would have occurred if any two same conference teams had those same percentages.

What is this guys accuracy on his predictions BTW?

Not sure about the power rankings, but last year his pre-season predictions beat Vegas - the only halfway prominent ones to do so.

Neosheed
04-22-2012, 06:33 PM
An half way functional rose is better than any team but the heat and thunder and even if you bring him off the bench with the bench mob will but to much for them especially if he gets it going and what if he heals by the second rd ?o_0 but lol at sas clippers,thunder,and Memphis are better then them and don't let them play the lakers or Dallas b for they play them they won't have nothing left

kozelkid
04-22-2012, 06:34 PM
Still doesnt change the fact that you have to make the finals to win them. The same confusion would have occurred if any two same conference teams had those same percentages.

What is this guys accuracy on his predictions BTW?

Seriously, what don't you get?

The % of them winning the finals is less than their chance of making it. While one has a better chance of making it, that same one have a worse chance at beating a Western Conference foe than the other. It's enough of a difference where one is looked to be favored as a champion, but not in getting their in the first place. Overall, Hollinger's numbers suggest that they are very even if anything.

Sportfan
04-22-2012, 06:38 PM
Utah has a better chance of winning the title than LA?
lolwhat

lvlheaded
04-22-2012, 06:39 PM
I hope the Spurs win it if the Knicks don't. After basically being counted as too old they have played unreal this season

tcav701
04-22-2012, 06:40 PM
Utah has a better chance of winning the title than LA?
lolwhat

Yes but there is a 33% chance they wont be in the playoffs.

Makes perfect sense.

Evolution23
04-22-2012, 06:53 PM
I can just see Hollinger sitting at home with his calculator trying to figure this stuff out. What a joke.

Raph12
04-22-2012, 07:54 PM
I dont get this dude.

The Celtics have a higher chance of making the finals than the Knicks, but the Kicks have a better chance of winning the championship than the Celtics?

Makes no sense lol.

Maybe they've played better against the Western Conference teams...

KB-Pau-DH2012
04-22-2012, 07:56 PM
Here's a question. When's the last time any of John Hollinger's predictions ever came true?


Answer: NEVER

felixng2012
04-22-2012, 08:05 PM
Statistics do lie.

bholly
04-22-2012, 09:28 PM
Maybe they've played better against the Western Conference teams...

I don't think it takes into account conference stuff or matchups, I think it's just the strength of likely playoff matchups. I could be wrong, but I don't see that stuff anywhere in any of his explanations.


Here's a question. When's the last time any of John Hollinger's predictions ever came true?


Answer: NEVER

What are you basing that answer on? He beat Vegas last year. He was more accurate than anyone.

justinnum1
04-22-2012, 09:36 PM
Here's a question. When's the last time any of John Hollinger's predictions ever came true?


Answer: NEVER
nevermind

kjoke
04-22-2012, 10:07 PM
I'm wondering the exact way he did this. His stats have always been in Miami's favor, so I just want to see what the calculations are

effen5
04-22-2012, 10:13 PM
Here's a question. When's the last time any of John Hollinger's predictions ever came true?


Answer: NEVER

:facepalm:

Punk
04-22-2012, 10:24 PM
Makes sense. The weird part is the total domination in favor of the Spurs/Thunder in the West.

bholly
04-22-2012, 10:37 PM
Makes sense. The weird part is the total domination in favor of the Spurs/Thunder in the West.

Because it's based on the power rankings, which are based on points differential and weight heavily for recent play. The Thunder and Spurs are miles ahead of the West on points differential over the season, and have only increased the difference in recent weeks. They've also both done it against tough schedules - they're 2 and 4 in the league on SOS.

Add it up and their power rankings are so much higher than anyone else (especially as they have weak first round competition, while the middle 4 teams are all pretty tough) and they just blitz everyone in just about every time through the simulation.

still1ballin
04-22-2012, 11:56 PM
Maybe they've played better against the Western Conference teams...

dude who is the chick in your sig!!

Trueblue2
04-23-2012, 01:27 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if he was simulating these games on nba2k12.