PDA

View Full Version : David Thorpe and Henry Abbot talk new team clutch stats



ManRam
04-17-2012, 01:35 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40941/truehoop-tv-thorpe-on-clutch-stats


A few interesting things I saw in the video...

1. The Lakers lead the league in +/- in crunch time. This is weird because Kobe has obviously had a lot of flack this year, but the team as a whole I guess has performed tremendously well.

2. Over the past 5 years, the best team in crunch time was the 2007-2008 Cavaliers.

3. The last 5 years Mike Brown has coached, his teams have lead the league in this crunch time +/- thing. That's pretty cool.

4. LeBron, Rose, Dirk, Kobe and Paul have 24 seasons with this data, and every season their team has been in the positive...except this year Dirk and CP3 are flirting with the negative this year. Superstar STRENGTH!

These guys have been noted LeBron supporters, which is no shock because they're stat geeks and immensely smart people. LeBron individually might not be clutch in your eyes, but his teams have ALWAYS been very "clutch". Shows his all-around impact. Team success is all that matters, right?



And then they debate whether or not "clutch" exists...and I love that.

Biggest take away: "we don't know very much". "We thought we knew everything, and now what we know is that we don't know".

Here's the article, and the chart they talk about. Cool stuff.

So, here are their words.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40886/outscoring-opponents-in-the-clutch



Some of what we noticed:
The Cavaliers of LeBron James and Mike Brown were unreal in crunch time, leading the league by a hefty margin for three straight years, with the best performances of any teams in the record. It's easy to see that LeBron James matters here -- once he left for Miami the Cavaliers’ plus/minus plummeted. The Cavs averaged plus-113 with James during those three seasons, and plus one in the two seasons since. Meanwhile, before James, the Heat weren't good in crunch time, but have since become very solid.

Mike Brown emerges as an interesting character in crunch time. With James in Cleveland three straight years, and now in Los Angeles after a year off, his teams led the league by this metric every year he has coached in the last half-decade. In this period, neither team has been as good with other coaches, either.

The Lakers have by far the best crunch time plus/minus this season (plus-79, the Pacers are second at plus-65). Pau Gasol (plus-78) has been their biggest individual star, followed closely by Andrew Bynum (plus-74). Kobe Bryant ranks third at plus-58. The Lakers achieved this number with the NBA's second-best clutch offense (behind the Magic) and the eighth-best defense.

Three teams have shone for five straight years: The Lakers, Celtics and Magic. The Nuggets are flirting with joining that club, too.

Superstars matter. Or, at least some do. LeBron James, Derrick Rose, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul almost always end the season positive in this regard -- the only exceptions are Paul and Nowitzki this year, which could still change. Other big names, like Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade have had more mixed results.

Good teams in general do well in crunch time. The top six teams in crunch time plus/minus this season have already locked up playoff spots, for instance (Lakers, Pacers, Hawks, Magic, Spurs and Bulls). But it's hardly a perfect correlation. In fact, surely a lot of what we're seeing in this chart appears to be simple randomness. The Pacers, terrible for a long time, are suddenly leaders. The Kings are excellent crunch time defenders this season. The Hawks are a solid team that is way better than solid late in games. And plenty of good teams -- the Sixers, the Knicks -- are pretty bad with the game on the line.

Over the past half-decade, just two teams, the Knicks and Timberwolves, haven't had a single season in positive territory.

The top ten late-game offensive teams this season are the Magic, Lakers, Grizzlies, Bulls, Hawks, Pacers, Rockets, Thunder, Spurs and Knicks.

The Pacers are by far this season's best defensive team late in close games. They are followed by the Hawks, Kings (!), Spurs, Heat, Magic, Bulls, Lakers, Thunder and Clippers.

The Dallas Mavericks have been very good for the last five years, but also have had the biggest drop-off in crunch time performance, from a league-leading plus-117 last season to an anemic minus-16 this season.

The Hawks have been good in crunch time for four straight years.

The Spurs and Thunder have been up and down.

The Houston Rockets (plus-31) and Memphis Grizzlies (plus-28) are the best crunch time teams this season that have yet to lock up a playoff spot. The Los Angeles Clippers (minus-9) are the only playoff team with a negative clutch plus/minus.

justinnum1
04-17-2012, 01:37 PM
good read

Cal827
04-17-2012, 01:43 PM
Yup, but in before a random bulls fan calls this stat a joke, or that random clipper troll gets mad over CP3 hovering negative.

On a side note, Pau's clutch stat is gonn just give hellcrooner more ammunition when he returns :D

Those Cleveland teams marks are incredible lol... Also surprised philly aint negative still.... They have had some terrible endings.

ManRam
04-17-2012, 01:46 PM
I was surprised to see a Paul-led Clipper team flirting with the negative honestly...especially because individually he has been SO good in the clutch. My guess: defense. They're BAD defensively, and especially in the clutch. Since this factors in both ends, that half of the basketball court matters...

-Kobe24-TJ19-
04-17-2012, 01:46 PM
interesting...really interesting:nod:

DerekRE_3
04-17-2012, 01:47 PM
Funny how the kings are one of the best clutch defenses in the league....too bad they are atrocious for about 46 minutes.

smith&wesson
04-17-2012, 01:58 PM
A few interesting things I saw in the video...

1. The Lakers lead the league in +/- in crunch time. This is weird because Kobe has obviously had a lot of flack this year, but the team as a whole I guess has performed tremendously well.

2. Over the past 5 years, the best team in crunch time was the 2007-2008 Cavaliers.

3. The last 5 years Mike Brown has coached, his teams have lead the league in this crunch time +/- thing. That's pretty cool.

4. LeBron, Rose, Dirk, Kobe and Paul have 24 seasons with this data, and every season their team has been in the positive...except this year Dirk and CP3 are flirting with the negative this year. Superstar STRENGTH!

These guys have been noted LeBron supporters, which is no shock because they're stat geeks and immensely smart people. LeBron individually might not be clutch in your eyes, but his teams have ALWAYS been very "clutch". Shows his all-around impact. Team success is all that matters, right?



And then they debate whether or not "clutch" exists...and I love that.

Biggest take away: "we don't know very much". "We thought we knew everything, and now what we know is that we don't know".

Sounds like a socrates quote :laugh2:

dhopisthename
04-17-2012, 02:09 PM
what I find hilarious is what looks to be the most unclutch team in the past 5 years was the minnesota timberwolves at what almost looks like -100 and if you talked to any wolves fan last year they would always bring up how often they failed in the clutch

gbrl
04-17-2012, 02:23 PM
pacers top 10 in offense and defense thats awesome

Crackadalic
04-17-2012, 02:28 PM
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40941/truehoop-tv-thorpe-on-clutch-stats


A few interesting things I saw in the video...

1. The Lakers lead the league in +/- in crunch time. This is weird because Kobe has obviously had a lot of flack this year, but the team as a whole I guess has performed tremendously well.

2. Over the past 5 years, the best team in crunch time was the 2007-2008 Cavaliers.

3. The last 5 years Mike Brown has coached, his teams have lead the league in this crunch time +/- thing. That's pretty cool.

4. LeBron, Rose, Dirk, Kobe and Paul have 24 seasons with this data, and every season their team has been in the positive...except this year Dirk and CP3 are flirting with the negative this year. Superstar STRENGTH!

These guys have been noted LeBron supporters, which is no shock because they're stat geeks and immensely smart people. LeBron individually might not be clutch in your eyes, but his teams have ALWAYS been very "clutch". Shows his all-around impact. Team success is all that matters, right?



And then they debate whether or not "clutch" exists...and I love that.

Biggest take away: "we don't know very much". "We thought we knew everything, and now what we know is that we don't know".

Here's the article, and the chart they talk about. Cool stuff.

So, here are their words.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40886/outscoring-opponents-in-the-clutch

good read #BasedGod I mean #ManRam

Lakers + Giants
04-17-2012, 02:46 PM
Lakers 1st? :win: Pau and Bynum have been tremendous for us this year in the clutch, that's most likely why.

Chronz
04-17-2012, 02:57 PM
Kobe has been killing it this year, he hogs even more but his efficiency gos through the roof, leaving Bynum and Pau with the high efficient scraps. They have proven able to get it done without him on the strength of their defense but Kobe has been the main catalyst for the Lakers clutch offense. Its also probably why the Lakers are 4 games above their expected winning%

I was hoping our clutch offense would revert to CP3's historic norms but it could just be a cold hard lesson in randomness.

justinnum1
04-17-2012, 02:58 PM
kobe in the clutch
http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player.html#Kobe-Bryant|977;year=201112;season=r;splitType=clutch;s plitValue=all

Lakers + Giants
04-17-2012, 03:12 PM
kobe in the clutch
http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player.html#Kobe-Bryant|977;year=201112;season=r;splitType=clutch;s plitValue=all

:shush: haha. Seriously though, he started off horrible and hadn't hit a clutch shot til the hornets game (the one where he hit 3-21 and started off 0-16). Every game he played after that he hit clutch shots, i'm just glad he's hitting them at the end of the year instead of the beginning of the year. We've been pretty damn beast in the clutch, that should definitely help in the playoffs.

gbrl
04-17-2012, 03:30 PM
kobe in the clutch
http://www.nba.com/advancedstats/player.html#Kobe-Bryant|977;year=201112;season=r;splitType=clutch;s plitValue=all

just looked up granger with that link and he has a 88.1 defensive rating in clutch time, no wonder theyre one of the best. he also has a 65 percent TS%

5ass
04-17-2012, 03:44 PM
I was surprised to see a Paul-led Clipper team flirting with the negative honestly...especially because individually he has been SO good in the clutch. My guess: defense. They're BAD defensively, and especially in the clutch. Since this factors in both ends, that half of the basketball court matters...

i agree. there are a lot of factors involved, but Vinny del negro taking out jordan at the end of games is one of them. Still, not only does CP3 come up clutch on offense, he performs extremely well on defense as well. He always seems to come up with steals in the clutch, and bails out his team.

Cfrey
04-17-2012, 05:53 PM
Thought this was really interesting. Some very interesting numbers here.



Basketball geekery has delved into crunch time in various ways.

First there was individual field goal percentage. That's where we learned that the players we thought owned crunch time (for instance Kobe Bryant and Chauncey Billups) actually miss a lot.
A year ago, we added something new, looking at team offenses. That's a more important measure, assuming you value wins more than highlights. Who cares who gets the bucket, so long as they're on your team? That's where we learned that most teams were about the same, with some exceptions, including Chris Paul's Hornets, which were amazing.

But all that is only part of the picture. Because as much as we love clutch buckets, clutch wins also have a ton to do with defense. If you're going to point to any team as elite in the clutch, that must be included, and now it is.

As John Hollinger has explained, a lot of what teams do in crunch time is likely random. Looking at tiny parts of games creates some wacky results without a lot of predictive value ... anyone who says they know a team will do well in crunch time is likely fibbing. All teams do both well and poorly at different times. But defense may be a bit of an exception. Teams do seem to play defense with a certain consistency late in games.

Using NBA.com data from the last five years (current as of today), from games within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime, Trevor Ebaugh of ESPN Stats & Info. dug in and created this pretty Tableau table:



The Cavaliers of LeBron James and Mike Brown were unreal in crunch time, leading the league by a hefty margin for three straight years, with the best performances of any teams in the record. It's easy to see that LeBron James matters here -- once he left for Miami the Cavaliers’ plus/minus plummeted. The Cavs averaged plus-113 with James during those three seasons, and plus one in the two seasons since. Meanwhile, before James, the Heat weren't good in crunch time, but have since become very solid.

Mike Brown emerges as an interesting character in crunch time. With James in Cleveland three straight years, and now in Los Angeles after a year off, his teams led the league by this metric every year he has coached in the last half-decade. In this period, neither team has been as good with other coaches, either.
The Lakers have by far the best crunch time plus/minus this season (plus-79, the Pacers are second at plus-65). Pau Gasol (plus-78) has been their biggest individual star, followed closely by Andrew Bynum (plus-74). Kobe Bryant ranks third at plus-58. The Lakers achieved this number with the NBA's second-best clutch offense (behind the Magic) and the eighth-best defense.

Three teams have shone for five straight years: The Lakers, Celtics and Magic. The Nuggets are flirting with joining that club, too.

Superstars matter. Or, at least some do. LeBron James, Derrick Rose, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul almost always end the season positive in this regard -- the only exceptions are Paul and Nowitzki this year, which could still change. Other big names, like Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade have had more mixed results.

Good teams in general do well in crunch time. The top six teams in crunch time plus/minus this season have already locked up playoff spots, for instance (Lakers, Pacers, Hawks, Magic, Spurs and Bulls). But it's hardly a perfect correlation. In fact, surely a lot of what we're seeing in this chart appears to be simple randomness. The Pacers, terrible for a long time, are suddenly leaders. The Kings are excellent crunch time defenders this season. The Hawks are a solid team that is way better than solid late in games. And plenty of good teams -- the Sixers, the Knicks -- are pretty bad with the game on the line.

Over the past half-decade, just two teams, the Knicks and Timberwolves, haven't had a single season in positive territory.

The top ten late-game offensive teams this season are the Magic, Lakers, Grizzlies, Bulls, Hawks, Pacers, Rockets, Thunder, Spurs and Knicks.

The Pacers are by far this season's best defensive team late in close games. They are followed by the Hawks, Kings (!), Spurs, Heat, Magic, Bulls, Lakers, Thunder and Clippers.

The Dallas Mavericks have been very good for the last five years, but also have had the biggest drop-off in crunch time performance, from a league-leading plus-117 last season to an anemic minus-16 this season.

The Hawks have been good in crunch time for four straight years.

The Spurs and Thunder have been up and down.

The Houston Rockets (plus-31) and Memphis Grizzlies (plus-28) are the best crunch time teams this season that have yet to lock up a playoff spot. The Los Angeles Clippers (minus-9) are the only playoff team with a negative clutch plus/minus.


http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40886/outscoring-opponents-in-the-clutch

Check the link to look at the table.

Thought it was very interesting and just goes to show what LeBron means to his team during the clutch. He takes a lot of heat and I think most of it is unwarranted.

Cfrey
04-17-2012, 06:00 PM
Oh **** my bad manram

Cal827
04-17-2012, 06:50 PM
^^ :facepalm:...:laugh2:...:laugh:...:facepalm:

Cfrey
04-17-2012, 07:14 PM
lol shut up