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DenButsu
04-17-2012, 09:19 AM
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

Here, I'm only including the lowest locked in playoff team and the highest locked in lottery team in each conference, and all teams in between. So this thread is about those teams whose playoff fate is still undecided.

Who's going to make the cut? How will the order shake out?


East % chance

Orlando 100.0
New York 94.9
Philadelphia 79.0
---
Milwaukee 26.1
Detroit 0.0


West % chance
Memphis 100.0
Dallas 94.0
Denver 90.8
Phoenix 51.5
---
Utah 33.5
Houston 30.2
Portland 0.0

Corey
04-17-2012, 09:22 AM
I want Milwaukee in. They're more fun to watch than Philly.

LakersIn5
04-17-2012, 09:44 AM
i want bucks to make it and philly to lose. im glad that phoenix finally have the 8th seed. with that roster nash should be a mvp contender. but media gives it to the best player of one of the teams with the most wins not the player which would suck the most without him.

jimbobjarree
04-17-2012, 10:12 AM
I think Utah has the easier remaining games than Phoenix. Portland twice without Aldridge, Orlando without Howard, and Phoenix at our place. Winning out is achievable.

DragonJaii
04-17-2012, 01:24 PM
bucks over philly please. philly is boring.

cbreezy34
04-17-2012, 01:31 PM
boring enough to beat the Bulls what.... 3 out of 4 times this year?

smith&wesson
04-17-2012, 01:34 PM
i want the 76ers and bucks to make it. and hope that magic slide out. magic are boring to watch with out howard.

DragonJaii
04-17-2012, 01:43 PM
boring enough to beat the Bulls what.... 3 out of 4 times this year?

didnt know philly beat us 3 out of 4 times.

king4day
04-17-2012, 01:48 PM
Suns have a very tough schedule remaining.
OKC
LAC
Denver
@Utah
Spurs

I see the most realistic being LAC, Denver, Spurs (if they rest their starters). Utah will be a real pain on the road and that game might determine who's in.

Baller1
04-17-2012, 01:50 PM
I want to see Milwaukee get in as well. I think they could put a scare into Chicago or Miami.

PleaseBeNice
04-17-2012, 02:11 PM
Echoing other statements, Milwaukee over philly please. Also I want Dallas to fall out

Kashmir13579
04-17-2012, 02:12 PM
Steve Nash in the playoffs PLEASE

Sinestro
04-17-2012, 02:25 PM
I don't wanna see Philly in the playoffs but Milwaukee seems beatable their big men don't scare me at all

Cubsfan365
04-17-2012, 02:25 PM
boring enough to beat the Bulls what.... 3 out of 4 times this year?
That's interesting considering the Bulls won 2 out of 3 against the 76ers this year.

DLeeicious
04-17-2012, 02:28 PM
Need Philly to make it in, I've been having trouble falling asleep lately and could use all the help I can get

bholly
04-17-2012, 07:01 PM
FWIW, I think these overrate the Sixers. They're based on his rankings, which take into account points differential rather than wins - the assumption being there's a whole lot more randomness in record, because of variance in late game situations, than there is in points differential. The result is they implicitly assume that every team is about the same in late game situations.
That overrates the Sixers a lot. Even if the original premise is true (which statistically it seems to be), in the Sixers case it isn't just variance ****ing us over late in the game - we're genuinely terrible.
So the rankings that assume we're the same as everyone else late overrate us, and the playoff odds based on them also do.
I honestly think we're closer to 60/40 to make it, maybe even a little worse.

Most likely it'll all come down to Philly @ Milwaukee on the second last day of the season, which will determine the tiebreaker as well as influence their record.

Lake_Show2416
04-17-2012, 07:15 PM
Utah will squeeze into the final spot

bholly
04-18-2012, 07:38 AM
Sixers are now 68.2% to Milwaukee's 33.0%. I still stand by his rankings overrating us, and I think it's much closer to 50/50, maybe even Milwaukee favourites.

They'll be decent favourites when they host us on April 25, and if they win that they win the tiebreaker and only need to catch up 0.5 games in the rest of the season. With Philly 3-7 in the last 10 and facing @CLE, @IND, @NJN, @MIL, @DET, have to think Milwaukee can catch up half a game given they're 6-4 in the last 10 and face @WAS, @IND, vsNJN, vsTOR, vsPHI, @BOS.

The've got one more really tough game than us (@BOS, with the two @IND games a wash), but their remaining 3 games they'll be big favourites in each, while Philly have lost vsNJN, vsORL (w/o Dwight or RA), vsTOR, @WAS in the last couple of weeks, and would already be genuine underdogs @DET.

I genuinely Milwaukee are close to a 50% chance, and maybe even favourites. It'll come down to the last two nights of the season.

DenButsu
04-18-2012, 09:31 AM
Sixers are now 68.2% to Milwaukee's 33.0%. I still stand by his rankings overrating us, and I think it's much closer to 50/50, maybe even Milwaukee favourites.

They'll be decent favourites when they host us on April 25, and if they win that they win the tiebreaker and only need to catch up 0.5 games in the rest of the season. With Philly 3-7 in the last 10 and facing @CLE, @IND, @NJN, @MIL, @DET, have to think Milwaukee can catch up half a game given they're 6-4 in the last 10 and face @WAS, @IND, vsNJN, vsTOR, vsPHI, @BOS.

The've got one more really tough game than us (@BOS, with the two @IND games a wash), but their remaining 3 games they'll be big favourites in each, while Philly have lost vsNJN, vsORL (w/o Dwight or RA), vsTOR, @WAS in the last couple of weeks, and would already be genuine underdogs @DET.

I genuinely Milwaukee are close to a 50% chance, and maybe even favourites. It'll come down to the last two nights of the season.

I haven't examined the tiebreaker or strength of (remaining) schedule situation for Philly/Milwaukee closely, but I'd guess that those could be two of the factors resulting in that 68/33 separation. At the very least, those playoff odds are all based on stats, so there's something there in the numbers generating that result. Of course, whether or not that's accurate is another question.