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View Full Version : Bats starting to awaken?



StubbsMcClapp
04-16-2012, 12:11 AM
Hey everyone, Have looked at threads for a long time on here and always enjoyed the ideas and passion of the Blue Jays community on here. I have finally decided to join the ranks.

I know the Blue Jays bats had been lagging the pitching, with only KJ and Edwin being hot to start the season, and Yunel to an extent. But after today's big game, do you think it was the type of outing that will propel the bats going forward and really jumpstart what could be quite a potent offence? We have seen flashes here and there, Colby the last couple games was hitting the ball well, Lawrie has started to swing a hotter bat and even Rajai Davis coming through when he has been called upon. But the unit as a whole has not done great and has let down what has been quite effective pitching, even by the young starters. The Blue Jays have had some clutch hitting and have hit well with 2-strikes, as noted, but some of those close games could have been lost due to a lack of scoring, and in some cases, they have lost because of that (not to mention relievers giving up untimely home runs :facepalm:). Sometimes it only takes one game to really get everyone going, could this be that game?

JermanJaysFan
04-16-2012, 12:26 AM
Welcome to the forums!

Just like I caution folks against small sample sizes when getting all down on the team like people were 24hours ago, I would also caution against assuming a 7 run inning means we are on top of the offensive heap.

That said, leading up to today's games, to me there were signs that some guys were getting ready to bust out, so I hope you're right.

Toxeryll
04-16-2012, 12:30 AM
i wouldnt be surprised if we get shut down next series considering its the rays

mtf
04-16-2012, 12:48 AM
i wouldnt be surprised if we get shut down next series considering its the rays

Well, the Jays won't be facing Shields or Moore in this series so that is a plus. Niemann, Price and Hellickson haven't fared too well this season so far but I agree with you that they could potentially shut down the Jays lineup.

Tmath
04-16-2012, 12:53 AM
If we face Kevin Gregg everyday we will be in great shape.

koreancabbage
04-16-2012, 12:56 AM
Bautista really needs protection bad. Miggy is going to have a career year with Fielder behind him. It would be nice to have Fielder just about now. Bautista is probably going to get his rhythm back eventually but Lind and Encarnacion is ridiculous poor.

looks like attendance will be strong if the Jays continue to win- no doubt about it. I think they had pretty good attendence with the Orioles in town no?

i think we easily average 30K + attendence if we got Fielder. I don't know what the return on Fielder is with his huge millionaire contract however in relation to ticket sales/ jersey sales/ promotions/ wins .

Sanyo
04-16-2012, 12:58 AM
It'll depend on what the Rays pitchers bring. All three pitchers have the potential to shut down the Jays but on the flip side the Jays pitchers can do the same thing.

Will be a fun series, think I'll try to make the thursday Hellickson/Alvarez match up, looks good!

Tmath
04-16-2012, 01:12 AM
Bautista needs to start looking at other pitches to hit other than fast balls. I've noticed they seem to be throwing him off speed pitches for strikes early to get him in the hole because they know he is only looking for fast balls.

mtf
04-16-2012, 03:16 AM
Bautista really needs protection bad. Miggy is going to have a career year with Fielder behind him. It would be nice to have Fielder just about now. Bautista is probably going to get his rhythm back eventually but Lind and Encarnacion is ridiculous poor.

looks like attendance will be strong if the Jays continue to win- no doubt about it. I think they had pretty good attendence with the Orioles in town no?

i think we easily average 30K + attendence if we got Fielder. I don't know what the return on Fielder is with his huge millionaire contract however in relation to ticket sales/ jersey sales/ promotions/ wins .

Yeah I agree. Top and bottom, the Jays lineup is pretty good, not flawless but still good. The middle of the lineup is frustrates me... to watch Bautista walk and then have Lind ground into a double play. It's so predictable.

nithanyo
04-16-2012, 08:03 AM
Its one game. The rays just got swep of boston and are out for blood. If we can manage at least 5 runs off the rays' hurlers we might have ourselves an awakened offense lol

ILDD
04-16-2012, 08:33 AM
Positive signs but I think it was more to do with Gregg than anything else.

Overall I've been impressed with EE, Johnson and Rasmus - assuming that Bautista, Escobar and Lawrie come round there's a solid core.

Arencibia will be fine, his offensive output doesn't need to be that high to provide value but I hope this has stopped the JPA to 1B or DH nonsense.

Thames is what he is - a good fourth outfielder on a contending team. There are plenty of long-term options here.

Lind is the big worry. That level of production from first base is not good enough and he's been doing it for 2 years now. I just hope that someone comes up to take over RF and move Bautista to 1B

mtf
04-16-2012, 08:38 AM
Positive signs but I think it was more to do with Gregg than anything else.

Overall I've been impressed with EE, Johnson and Rasmus - assuming that Bautista, Escobar and Lawrie come round there's a solid core.

Arencibia will be fine, his offensive output doesn't need to be that high to provide value but I hope this has stopped the JPA to 1B or DH nonsense.

Thames is what he is - a good fourth outfielder on a contending team. There are plenty of long-term options here.

Lind is the big worry. That level of production from first base is not good enough and he's been doing it for 2 years now. I just hope that someone comes up to take over RF and move Bautista to 1B

Lawrie is batting over .300 currently isn't he? I thought he lead their regulars in BA

ILDD
04-16-2012, 08:56 AM
Lawrie is batting over .300 currently isn't he? I thought he lead their regulars in BA

He's over 0.300 but he hasn't looked good to me, his peripherals tell the real story.

His BABIP is 0.357 saying he's been "lucky" and a few of his hits "should" have been outs with more normal luck. He's walked 5% of the time and struck out 20% of the time. His ISO is way down at 0.083.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll come round but he's not really producing right now, along with Bautista and Escobar.

Dol-Fan
04-16-2012, 09:05 AM
He's over 0.300 but he hasn't looked good to me, his peripherals tell the real story.

His BABIP is 0.357 saying he's been "lucky" and a few of his hits "should" have been outs with more normal luck. He's walked 5% of the time and struck out 20% of the time. His ISO is way down at 0.083.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll come round but he's not really producing right now, along with Bautista and Escobar.

I agree with the point about ISO, he hasn't been hitting the ball hard consistently, but I don't know about BABIP and Brett Lawrie. I think he's gonna be the type to consistently outplay his BABIP. He knows how to place the ball (very, very good at smacking it back up the middle) because of his great bat control. You'll also see him consistently beating out close plays with his legs.

Not disagreeing with you on the conclusion, he needs to pick it up a bit, I just don't think BABIP is a good way to judge Lawrie because of the above factors.

JermanJaysFan
04-16-2012, 09:30 AM
He's over 0.300 but he hasn't looked good to me, his peripherals tell the real story.

His BABIP is 0.357 saying he's been "lucky" and a few of his hits "should" have been outs with more normal luck. He's walked 5% of the time and struck out 20% of the time. His ISO is way down at 0.083.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll come round but he's not really producing right now, along with Bautista and Escobar.
You can't make this claim. The sample size is way too small, and we don't have a good career baseline for Lawrie's "normal" BABIP yet- there is no way to say whether .357 is high for him or not. In fact, looking at his minor league BABIP numbers and judging him as a player (speedy, good bat control, hits balls hard), there is solid evidence to assume that he could be a player the consistently outperforms the quoted ".300" BABIP mark.

Bombtista
04-16-2012, 11:27 AM
Bautista really needs protection bad. Miggy is going to have a career year with Fielder behind him. It would be nice to have Fielder just about now. Bautista is probably going to get his rhythm back eventually but Lind and Encarnacion is ridiculous poor.

looks like attendance will be strong if the Jays continue to win- no doubt about it. I think they had pretty good attendence with the Orioles in town no?

i think we easily average 30K + attendence if we got Fielder. I don't know what the return on Fielder is with his huge millionaire contract however in relation to ticket sales/ jersey sales/ promotions/ wins .

I think Bautista needs to work on his own game considering Edwin has been equally as productive as Cabrera to this point. If you want protection hes the guy you want right now, we all know how streaky he can be.

I went to the Morrow game during the Orioles series and the attendance was a lot higher than I had typically seen last year. I assume as long as we are winning fans are going to go.

ILDD
04-16-2012, 11:34 AM
You can't make this claim. The sample size is way too small, and we don't have a good career baseline for Lawrie's "normal" BABIP yet- there is no way to say whether .357 is high for him or not. In fact, looking at his minor league BABIP numbers and judging him as a player (speedy, good bat control, hits balls hard), there is solid evidence to assume that he could be a player the consistently outperforms the quoted ".300" BABIP mark.

He may very well out perform the 0.300 "norm" but he's at 0.357 so far this season, that's a historically high number.

I obvisouly haven't looked through every player in history, I merely looked at the guy whose number I thought would be highest - Ichiro has a career BABIP of 0.351. I don't think Lawrie will outperform Ichiro in terms of BABIP so I assumed Lawrie's will fall over time.

Jay
04-16-2012, 12:21 PM
Brett Lawrie's BA looks a lot better than it really is because of his speed. I'd like to know how many infield singles he has so far this season.

I'm not saying that it's a bad thing. It's an asset for sure; much how Ichiro did it back in his prime.

DeRozan10
04-16-2012, 01:48 PM
Man the crazy thing with Lawrie (I know its a small sample size) ... Is that he is hitting .300 and he has really only squared up one, maybe two balls and hit them hard.

JermanJaysFan
04-16-2012, 03:23 PM
He may very well out perform the 0.300 "norm" but he's at 0.357 so far this season, that's a historically high number.

I obvisouly haven't looked through every player in history, I merely looked at the guy whose number I thought would be highest - Ichiro has a career BABIP of 0.351. I don't think Lawrie will outperform Ichiro in terms of BABIP so I assumed Lawrie's will fall over time.
.357 is certainly high, but not unheard of. Shin-Soo Choo, Derek Jeter, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto are all current players who have career BABIPs over .350, and there are a host of more historical players who have done the same thing and more.

But that's kind of besides my point. Even if Lawrie's true BABIP skill is, say, .320- the sample size for this season is still way to small. If just one of his hits had instead been an out, his BABIP would sink to .320. If 2 of his Ks had been outs in play, his BABIP would be .330. There is far too much noise in such a small sample to try to draw conclusions.

town123
04-16-2012, 05:23 PM
If we face Kevin Gregg everyday we will be in great shape.

Nice.....lol

GNick
04-22-2012, 10:09 PM
Rasmus reminds me of Alex Rios. You can see the great talent....hit 2 homeruns one day strikeout 4 times the next game

mtf
04-22-2012, 10:13 PM
Rasmus reminds me of Alex Rios. You can see the great talent....hit 2 homeruns one day strikeout 4 times the next game

This is just the nature of the game. Different day, different weather, different pitcher, sometimes facing a different team altogether.

Admittedly, you'd like to see some level of consistency but a span of 2 days is tough to use to make a judgement of someone. Rasmus had been playing very well for the past 2 weeks, and I still look forward to seeing him bat each time through the lineup.

Raps08-09 Champ
04-22-2012, 11:06 PM
Everyone except Bautista.

MrForever
04-23-2012, 01:14 PM
I think it's impressive that the team is producing quite well even with Jose's slow start. It really is a testament to the depth this line up has.

koreancabbage
04-25-2012, 10:23 AM
I think it's impressive that the team is producing quite well even with Jose's slow start. It really is a testament to the depth this line up has.

oh for sure!

imagine if we actually HAD that big bat to ease pressure off of Bautista?

miller74
04-25-2012, 10:37 AM
oh for sure!

imagine if we actually HAD that big bat to ease pressure off of Bautista?

Imagine if the big bat we already had was hitting?

koreancabbage
04-25-2012, 11:50 AM
Imagine if the big bat we already had was hitting?

it would be amazing nonetheless, but you can't fault one guy with pressure on his hitting the only thing that will sink or swim this Jays team from going far. Huge pressure on him this year, as the Jays are going to try to compete for a playoff spot. Last two years, no such expectations. And plus, he gets very limited chances as he AND Johnson are getting walked like crazy.

like come on. pitchers rather face the 4,5,6 hitters...Thank goodness Lawrie and Encarncion is producing, but they aren't the bonafide scary 4th batter on most teams.