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View Full Version : 2012 Beat the Streak thread



JMac4PM
04-14-2012, 12:22 PM
I thought maybe a thread where we can talk about the Beat the Streak contest would be a good idea...

We can post what our current streak is at and our picks for the day.

My current streak: 3
Todays picks: Hamilton and Cargo

bomber0104
04-14-2012, 01:48 PM
lost mine yesterday.. got Hamilton and holliday going today

hamilton already got a hit

The_Realist
04-14-2012, 01:57 PM
I thought about entering this contest, but even assuming I can guess the correct player 60% of the time (which is very optimistic), I've calculated the odds to be 2.26x10^-13.

Not worth my time, but have fun guys.

JMac4PM
04-14-2012, 02:08 PM
60% correct guess rate is very low.... You can just pick 1 top player (like Miguel Cabrera for example) and be right about 75-80% of the time. Optimistic result would be about 90%.

BlueJaysFan
04-14-2012, 02:11 PM
Anyone play fangraphs game?

bomber0104
04-14-2012, 02:47 PM
60% correct guess rate is very low.... You can just pick 1 top player (like Miguel Cabrera for example) and be right about 75-80% of the time. Optimistic result would be about 90%.

yeah you should definitely be able to beat 60% considering you can pick any top hitter that is facing a scrub who they have hit in the past..

bomber0104
04-14-2012, 02:48 PM
Cardinals game better not get rained out i got holliday

BBB
04-14-2012, 03:00 PM
I haven't played this since they first released the game. Which was around 10 years ago.

ILDD
04-14-2012, 04:19 PM
I play, it's free, takes about 5 minutes per day and could win you $2.7M

What's not to like?

I'm only at 2 so far, I had 8 earlier but Robinson Cano screwed me.

bomber0104
04-14-2012, 05:27 PM
**** u holliday.. 0-4 against volstad

es0terik
04-14-2012, 07:33 PM
The guy in first place (21) lost today. He picked David Freese and the Cards scratched him off the lineup and didn't even let him play.

ILDD
04-14-2012, 07:51 PM
The guy in first place (21) lost today. He picked David Freese and the Cards scratched him off the lineup and didn't even let him play.

You don't lose for that unless he came in late in the game and got an AB.

JMac4PM
04-14-2012, 08:10 PM
ugh Colorado is sitting Cargo tonight.... hopefully they keep him on the bench I got a 4 game streak riding on him.

The_Realist
04-14-2012, 10:27 PM
Hey guys. You are right that my calculations are in error. Sorry. Let's try again.

Let's say that you only choose good hitters who are on streaks, hitting in hitter friendly parks, and are against bad starting pitching. I would say that for every at bat, your batter would have a batting average of about .360-.380, and he would have 4 at bats per game. Let's choose a batting average of .370. That means that on that particular game, the chances of getting at least one hit are about 84%. For those statistically minded, I'm using a binomial distribution.

Note that the 84% is a LOT higher than my initial estimate of 60%. When you account for this, the chances that you will beat the streak increase to 4.83x10^-5 or 0.00483%.

Now let's also not forget that you can fail and try again. So let's say that you try this five times. That increases your chances to 0.0241% (24 in 100000).

Those odds still aren't good enough for me to want to play, but they are WAY better than the lottery and it's free. I'm convinced that all of the people who buy lottery tickets should become baseball fans and play the contest instead of wasting their money.

JMac4PM
04-15-2012, 10:08 AM
I dont play this to just win 5.6m... its also fun. Free entertainment for the win! No more hookers!

Hit streak at 4 games

going with Hamilton and Michael Young today

es0terik
04-15-2012, 12:41 PM
I'm going to go balls out today and pick Bautista and Lawrie.

Btw, stuff like this is what the Off-Topic Thread is for lol

bomber0104
04-15-2012, 12:57 PM
Hey guys. You are right that my calculations are in error. Sorry. Let's try again.

Let's say that you only choose good hitters who are on streaks, hitting in hitter friendly parks, and are against bad starting pitching. I would say that for every at bat, your batter would have a batting average of about .360-.380, and he would have 4 at bats per game. Let's choose a batting average of .370. That means that on that particular game, the chances of getting at least one hit are about 84%. For those statistically minded, I'm using a binomial distribution.

Note that the 84% is a LOT higher than my initial estimate of 60%. When you account for this, the chances that you will beat the streak increase to 4.83x10^-5 or 0.00483%.

Now let's also not forget that you can fail and try again. So let's say that you try this five times. That increases your chances to 0.0241% (24 in 100000).

Those odds still aren't good enough for me to want to play, but they are WAY better than the lottery and it's free. I'm convinced that all of the people who buy lottery tickets should become baseball fans and play the contest instead of wasting their money.

I think they realized how hard it is and added the option of having 2 hitters going per day

bomber0104
04-15-2012, 12:58 PM
Today i'm going with Konerko vs. Porcello and Lawrie vs. Matusz

Toxeryll
04-15-2012, 01:12 PM
i have furcal and yunel today

bomber0104
04-15-2012, 03:03 PM
Lawrie and Konerko get their hits.. on to tomorrow

BlueJaysFan
04-15-2012, 04:07 PM
Streaks at 4 woo now to pick tomorrows hits

Toxeryll
04-15-2012, 04:10 PM
got mine too. i have miggy and cargo tomorrow

BlueJaysFan
04-15-2012, 04:15 PM
Edit: Wrong thread lol

es0terik
04-15-2012, 04:19 PM
got mine too. i have miggy and cargo tomorrow

Going with Miggy and Pujols tomorrow

Toxeryll
04-15-2012, 06:02 PM
Going with Miggy and Pujols tomorrow

Miggy is in a slump so I changed my pick to Jeter

JMac4PM
04-15-2012, 09:37 PM
streak is at 6 games

picked Jeter and Cargo....

bomber0104
04-15-2012, 10:48 PM
Jeter and Mauer for me.. i had Miggy but i'm worried about Duffy walking him

Toxeryll
04-15-2012, 10:59 PM
streak is at 6 games

picked Jeter and Cargo....

i just started, im at 3 games. i have the same picks man

es0terik
04-15-2012, 11:41 PM
Even though Cabrera is amidst a huge slump and he's facing a pitcher who would have no problem walking him, I'm going to go with my original gut instinct and keep my pick on him.

#YOLO

JMac4PM
04-16-2012, 09:44 AM
i just started, im at 3 games. i have the same picks man

I was thinkin bout taking Cano instead of Jeter... hope it doesnt back fire...

bomber0104
04-16-2012, 07:39 PM
both jeter and mauer get their hits in the 1st.. 4 gamer for me

BlueJaysFan
04-16-2012, 08:08 PM
Have Desmond and Miguel Cabrera today. Desmond already got a hit so I need cabrera here

JMac4PM
04-16-2012, 08:29 PM
Cargo not playing again today! wtf is goin on there thats 2 days off he had this week!

JMac4PM
04-16-2012, 08:30 PM
is he injured?

Toxeryll
04-17-2012, 12:12 AM
Cargo not playing again today! wtf is goin on there thats 2 days off he had this week!

i picked him. does that mean my streak ends??

bomber0104
04-17-2012, 12:23 AM
Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez for me so far..

Not sure though because Miggy is only hitting .222 but has dominated Chen in the past
A-Gon is 6 for 7 against Lewis but Lewis has been pitching great

Toxeryll
04-17-2012, 12:46 AM
my streak is now at 4 games. i have jeter and AGon for tomorrow.

ILDD
04-17-2012, 07:48 AM
Back down to 0 - I have Longoria to blame:mad:

Nels@Ryerson
04-17-2012, 08:23 AM
Back down to 0 - I have Longoria to blame:mad:

how do you play? and where?

sorry im a noob!

JMac4PM
04-17-2012, 08:29 AM
hittin streak at 7... went with Miggy and Agon...

Chen and Lewis are hittable pitchers and Miggy is due for a hit so I like my chances...

es0terik
04-17-2012, 11:21 AM
Picking Bautista and Lawrie for today

JMac4PM
04-17-2012, 12:36 PM
I would stay away from Bautsita in gthis kinda game.... he gets walked too much.

BlueJaysFan
04-17-2012, 04:59 PM
how do you play? and where?

sorry im a noob!

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/bts/y2012/splash_index.jsp

BlueJaysFan
04-17-2012, 05:04 PM
Jeter and Kemp for today. Streaks at 0, thanks a lot miguel :(

bomber0104
04-17-2012, 06:02 PM
I would stay away from Bautsita in gthis kinda game.... he gets walked too much.

yeah thats how you got to look at those things... I try to stay away when a guy is facing a pitcher that walks people like Duffy yesterday .. and Bautista is always tricky for obvious reasons.

i'm sticking with Miggy and AGon for today

albertajaysfan
04-17-2012, 06:26 PM
I like this game it gives me an added reason to follow more players then just Jays players. So far I am at 6. Went with AGon and Lawrie today.

BlueJaysFan
04-17-2012, 09:04 PM
Jeter and Kemp got a hit today , my streak is now at 2

bomber0104
04-17-2012, 10:19 PM
Miggy and AGon both hit.. 6 for me.. on to tomorrow

es0terik
04-17-2012, 10:37 PM
Joey and Brett both homered so I start a new streak at 2

Toxeryll
04-17-2012, 10:59 PM
6 games for me. going with prince and hamilton for tomorrow.

JMac4PM
04-17-2012, 11:07 PM
9 games for me....

picked Jeter vs Marquis and Braun vs Capuano. Both at home and vs very hittable pitchers.

bomber0104
04-18-2012, 12:24 AM
So far I got Tulo vs. Richards (8 for 15) and Konerko vs. Hunter (3-6)

I might still give the Yankees lineup a look vs. Marquis. He is hittable but problem is, not many Yankees have seen him. I want to go with a hot Jeter but he hasn't faced him

es0terik
04-18-2012, 11:29 AM
Going with Bautista and Lawrie again

bomber0104
04-18-2012, 04:51 PM
and ****.. my fear is realized.. ****ing Rockies decide to give Tulo a mental day off because of all the errors... the guy is 8-15 vs. Richards i'm sure they could have waited a day..

but thats how they get you in this contest.. the fact that you have to pick the players before the first game starts means you won't be able to see the lineup for the later games before making you decision

still hoping he either sits the whole game or managers a hit as a pinch hitter

bomber0104
04-18-2012, 09:15 PM
Konerko already got his hit... Rockies winning 5-0 early so hopefully Tulo takes the whole day off

Toxeryll
04-18-2012, 10:16 PM
hamilton and prince got their hits so im at 8 games now.. i dont know who to pick for tomorrow

bomber0104
04-18-2012, 10:29 PM
Rockies pitcher should get another AB.. hoping its not Tulowitski that pinch hits

bomber0104
04-19-2012, 03:21 AM
With Tulo not playing and Konerko getting a hit, my streak at 7..

Keep in mind that there are 4 early games tomorrow and its a get away day so there might be some guys resting

JMac4PM
04-19-2012, 09:39 AM
Streak is at 0 because Braun forget to juice....

Going with Jeter and Joyce.

bomber0104
04-19-2012, 11:52 AM
Carlos Beltran and Derek Jeter for me

Toxeryll
04-19-2012, 12:51 PM
Carlos Beltran and Derek Jeter for me

i have the same picks.

bomber0104
04-19-2012, 01:25 PM
i liked Hanley and Castro and they both have hits in the 1st inning

bomber0104
04-19-2012, 03:59 PM
Beltran got a hit

BlueJaysFan
04-19-2012, 10:10 PM
Had Castro and willingham today, both got hits. Streaks back to 4

Toxeryll
04-19-2012, 11:55 PM
im at 10 games now. im going with laroche and young tomorrow.

bomber0104
04-20-2012, 12:18 AM
im at 10 games now. im going with laroche and young tomorrow.

i try to stick with good players and away from avg players that are just hot at the moment. Plus Zambrano is wild so who knows how many ABs he will get against him

bomber0104
04-20-2012, 12:19 AM
so far i have pedroia and Cano but i'm gonna give it further thought

Also liking Kemp vs. Happ
Castro vs. Bailey
Votto vs. volstad

Toxeryll
04-20-2012, 01:39 AM
i try to stick with good players and away from avg players that are just hot at the moment. Plus Zambrano is wild so who knows how many ABs he will get against him

**** ur right, i might change laroche to pedroia. :D

bomber0104
04-20-2012, 02:31 AM
**** ur right, i might change laroche to pedroia. :D

lol go with your gut feeling.. i dont want to take the blame

JMac4PM
04-20-2012, 08:32 AM
I picked EE and Butler... gonna stick to guys in bluejay games... makes it more enjoyable to watch.

bomber0104
04-20-2012, 12:19 PM
I'm saying with Pedroia and Cano.. Red Sox and Yankees will come to bat 5 times each in that game

bomber0104
04-20-2012, 04:14 PM
Pedroia and Cano with the early hits.. streak at 11

Toxeryll
04-20-2012, 08:31 PM
damn it, texas game got postponed. im at 11 as well bomber

bomber0104
04-20-2012, 11:51 PM
damn it, texas game got postponed. im at 11 as well bomber

Saved your *** from Laroche.. 0-3

bomber0104
04-20-2012, 11:58 PM
So far, i'm choosing between Ortiz, Castro (guy gets hits), Jeter (he's killing it), Kemp (.481)

I really want to stick to the Yankees-Redsox series.. these guys hit each other so well and play high scoring games

Toxeryll
04-21-2012, 12:37 AM
Saved your *** from Laroche.. 0-3

haha, tnx. i hate picking guys in the NL, im not quite familiar with the pitchers

Toxeryll
04-21-2012, 12:39 AM
So far, i'm choosing between Ortiz, Castro (guy gets hits), Jeter (he's killing it), Kemp (.481)

I really want to stick to the Yankees-Redsox series.. these guys hit each other so well and play high scoring games

i picked ortiz and kemp. kemp is unstoppable right now

bomber0104
04-21-2012, 12:50 AM
i picked ortiz and kemp. kemp is unstoppable right now

yeah reason i've stayed away from kemp last few days is because he is due for some bad luck with a .481 avg. Plus you fear teams start pitching around him in certain situations.

Toxeryll
04-21-2012, 12:59 AM
yeah reason i've stayed away from kemp last few days is because he is due for some bad luck with a .481 avg. Plus you fear teams start pitching around him in certain situations.

this is my first time picking him, hopefully he doesnt fail me :pray:

bomber0104
04-21-2012, 01:00 PM
kemp and castro for me

JMac4PM
04-21-2012, 03:32 PM
Bombtista and Butler for me.

bomber0104
04-21-2012, 05:20 PM
catro got his hit.. will have to wait on Kemp

both Jeter and Ortiz have already gotten hits too

bomber0104
04-22-2012, 01:32 AM
13 games for now.. i think i have konerko so far for tomorrow but i won't lock it till tomorrow

Toxeryll
04-22-2012, 01:52 AM
man so tough to choose for tomorrow. i have konerko so far, i dont if i'll go with cabrera or young tomorrow

bomber0104
04-22-2012, 02:27 AM
man so tough to choose for tomorrow. i have konerko so far, i dont if i'll go with cabrera or young tomorrow

yeah i would love to go to the Sox Yankees matchup but Bard is tricky and CC is too good of a pitcher

might have to stick to Konerko for the day and thats it. there just aren't many options

Toxeryll
04-22-2012, 04:02 AM
yeah i would love to go to the Sox Yankees matchup but Bard is tricky and CC is too good of a pitcher

might have to stick to Konerko for the day and thats it. there just aren't many options

yea, im gambling with cabrera. hopefully i dont regret it

bomber0104
04-22-2012, 12:24 PM
Locked in Konerko vs. Millwood and Michael Young vs. Smyly

by far the least confidence i've been in my picks this year

Toxeryll
04-22-2012, 05:56 PM
Locked in Konerko vs. Millwood and Michael Young vs. Smyly

by far the least confidence i've been in my picks this year

we extend our streak to 15.. :hi5:

bomber0104
04-22-2012, 05:57 PM
young and konerko with hits.. run at 15.. i assume a lot of people lost today with kemp going 0-2 before being pulled

bomber0104
04-22-2012, 05:58 PM
we extend our streak to 15.. :hi5:

one fourth the way there

Toxeryll
04-22-2012, 06:23 PM
for tomorrow, im going with jeter vs. holland (.417 AVG) and big papi vs marquis

big papi has hit well in target field. same thing with jeter in rangers ballpark

bomber0104
04-22-2012, 08:11 PM
for tomorrow, im going with jeter vs. holland (.417 AVG) and big papi vs marquis

big papi has hit well in target field. same thing with jeter in rangers ballpark

haven't looked yet but i will definitely look at the Marques - redsox matchup.. that dude can't get AL hitters out

bomber0104
04-23-2012, 03:32 PM
I locked in Posey vs. Batista and A-Gon vs. Marques...

i think your only chance of winning this thing is to stay away from the obvious choices every now and then.. because there are so many people already ahead of you so if you keep making the same popular choices they're making, even if you get them right, the'll win before u

bomber0104
04-23-2012, 11:05 PM
****.. need the sox to go to extras to give A gon another chance

Toxeryll
04-24-2012, 12:07 AM
streak now at 17 games. going with miggy and beltran tomorrow.

mac1183
04-24-2012, 04:07 PM
just found this thread.

looks like some ppl in here are just guessing wildly and some have a strategy.

I'm @ 12 going into today and took starlin castro & Nate Schierholtz

last night was matt kemp and alex rios

bomber0104
04-24-2012, 04:56 PM
i'm gonna have to start a new one with gonzalez ******** hte bed last night

Toxeryll
04-24-2012, 09:51 PM
****.. looks like my streak is gonna end tonight. beltran needs one more chance.

Toxeryll
04-24-2012, 10:25 PM
damn it. beltran walked in his last AB.

Toxeryll
04-24-2012, 10:57 PM
OMG wow. cubs tied it up in the bottom of the 9th. i think beltran will get one more chance. :pray:

WhatSayYou
04-30-2012, 06:36 PM
Anyone having any luck? I'm sitting at 8 games atm going with Kemp and M.Cabrera for tonight.

bomber0104
04-30-2012, 06:51 PM
i stopped but i'm gonna get back on it today

Toxeryll
05-01-2012, 01:48 AM
im at 5 games right now. going with jeter and wright for tomorrow.

es0terik
05-02-2012, 02:06 PM
Stopped playing