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View Full Version : Are we that much better from 2011?



nithanyo
04-13-2012, 12:43 AM
Just had an argument with my friend yesterday. Just wondering why we seem to have so much optimism bout this season. Our starting pitching or offence hasnt gotten any upgrades. Sure we get a full year of Lawrie and a better bullpen on paper but are we really that much better?

(btw the average fan doesnt know who anthony gose or Travis D'arnaud are so i dont think the deep farm system is a reason)

Could it just be the good looking jersey and hat??

StealingSigns
04-13-2012, 12:49 AM
Yes.

The enthusiasm only resides in the new jersey and hat...

StealingSigns
04-13-2012, 12:51 AM
Look, if you can't see the dramatic change in talent from opening day 2011 vs opening day 2012, you are not a true fan of baseball.

Dol-Fan
04-13-2012, 12:53 AM
You're talking about a Jays team that regularly fielded Corey Patterson, Jayson Nix, John McDonald, Juan Rivera, Brett Cecil, JoJo Reyes. I mean, that team had some ugly names for the first half of the year.

Yes, this 2012 team is much improved from last year. Whether that results in a substantial increase in wins is yet to be seen, but there is no question that the talent level is substantially higher.

nithanyo
04-13-2012, 12:58 AM
Look, if you can't see the dramatic change in talent from opening day 2011 vs opening day 2012, you are not a true fan of baseball.

k before we start any personal attacks or challenging if anyone is a true fan or i argued that we were a better team but wanted the forums opinion on this.

Im not attacking you or anything. I think youre a true fan of baseball tho :).

StealingSigns
04-13-2012, 01:04 AM
k before we start any personal attacks or challenging if anyone is a true fan or i argued that we were a better team but wanted the forums opinion on this.

Im not attacking you or anything. I think youre a true fan of baseball tho :).

Totally not a personal attack against you; I guess I should have framed my response a little better.

hendrix
04-13-2012, 01:07 AM
You're talking about a Jays team that regularly fielded Corey Patterson, Jayson Nix, John McDonald, Juan Rivera, Brett Cecil, JoJo Reyes. I mean, that team had some ugly names for the first half of the year.

Yes, this 2012 team is much improved from last year. Whether that results in a substantial increase in wins is yet to be seen, but there is no question that the talent level is substantially higher.


This. Plus also add Hill to that mix.


Comparing early/mid-last year to right now, we are improved at 3b, 2b, cf, DH, bullpen, and could see some marginal improvment from experience at SP, and C.

mtf
04-13-2012, 01:10 AM
It depends how you look at the team.

If you look at it from the perspective of the final game last season to the first game this season, the only changes (significant or otherwise) was to the bullpen. The lineup is the same 9, the rotation has the same pieces as well. Nothing new here.

If you look at it in the most optimistic way possible, then you compare the rosters from opening day 2011 vs. opening day 2012, in which case yes there are many spare parts that have been replaced with full-time players (nix/encarnacion replaced with lawrie, rajai davis replaced with colby rasmus, etc).

I don't see anything inherently wrong with looking at it from either position.

I tend to just look at the current team (without comparing it to anything in the past) and say that it's good and I'm excited to see the games, but I wish it was better. I love watching Brett Lawrie, Kelly Johnson, Colby Rasmus, Yunel Escobar, Jose Bautista, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez and Kyle Drabek. I'm frustrated with Adam Lind, Eric Thames, and the current merry-go-round with the 5th starter position. I'm also not yet decided on JP Arencibia or Edwin Encarnacion.

Overall, I see more positives than negatives, but the negatives are more abundant than I'd like to see from a potential playoff contender and I see no willingness from management to cut ties with Adam Lind especially and bring in a real clean-up hitter.

StealingSigns
04-13-2012, 01:10 AM
It is a better team. When you go through all 25 roster spots, and compare it to 2011, there is no way you can argue this is not an improved team.

The changes aren't even that subtle though. Big improvements in defence, huge production increase at 3b and 2b (as compared to what Hill was delivering) and JPA is defying expectations defensively as well.

Couple that with the farm system which is bursting at the seams, this team is VASTLY improved from last years team that took the field on opening day.

lexecutioner
04-13-2012, 01:16 AM
By team standard yes the Jays are so much better. Lawrie,KJ,Rasmus,Thames anyday over Nix,Hill,Davis,Patterson. As for pitching Ill take RR, a maturing year of Morrow, Hendo, Drabek over Cecill and Jojo Reyes. On the managing side we got a more experienced Farrell that so far is calling better shot than last year. SO yeah no doubt 2012 Jays is better than 2011 Jays. Not drastically just better. That being said other teams improve aswell so for them to translate that betterness into wins is not a guarantee. But for sure ill take The Jays with Smexy uniform than the one Juan Rivera wears last year.

Sanyo
04-13-2012, 01:35 AM
Arencibia is a year older. His defense has improved much more than last year (it showed in Cleveland and for most of the Boston series, minus the one mishap with the Bautista throw).

Lind is Lind. Can't get any worse and so far has played better.

Johnson is an improvement over Hill who clearly need a change of scenary.

Escobar is Escobar.

Lawrie over Nix -- need I say more?

Bautista is Bautista --- regression is possible but not enough to off-set the other positives.

Rasmus is an improvement over Davis except on the bases but thats why Davis is our benchwarmer.

Thames over Rivera.

Starters are a year older and hopefully they can look more like their 1st starts (Romero 2nd) then last year. Morrow will be a stud this year and breakout. Alvarez will be awesome and I see him getting better. Drabek is 10 times better than last year and you can see him definitely improve on his composure. If this was Drabek last year during the jam he got in with the Sox he would have flipped out and lost more focus. This year you can see him clearly thinking things through in his head!

Bullpen is improved. I like Francisco, he got a bad deal in the 1st half but was probably the best AL closer in the 2nd half of the season. Overall, still better in 2012.

Bench - well the only thing we regressed with this year was backup catcher, Jose Molina was amazing for us last year. Other than that the bench is the bench.


So yeah this team is much improved! And I haven't seen them play the Sox like that in a series in God knows how many years! I know the Sox have their issues right now but they are still a threat and they can still pour in the runs (as they showed in the last game of the Tigers series scoring 12 runs in a losing cause).

Team will only get better and better. I expect Hutch will be the 5th starter in the 2nd half of the season.

Overall, much improved over last year -- based on what was acquired and just plain sheer experience...

JermanJaysFan
04-13-2012, 02:06 AM
I'm gonna quote a post by twitchy from that MLB roundtable thread in the MLB forum. Sums it up real well. This is in reply to jeffy saying that the Jays won't be much over .500 this year (ie. not a whole lot improved from last year):


That last comment is crazy. As a team the Jays were 29/30 in CF last year (-0.9 WAR, thanks to guys like Rajai Davis and Corey Patterson), 28/30 in 2B (0.5 WAR, and Hill was below replacement level), worthless at 3B till Lawrie came up (they used Jayson Nix, John McDonald and EE when he was making errors on every other play). They also gave 275 AB to guys like Juan Rivera who was exactly replacement level. At worst EE is a one win upgrade over his 80 wRC+.

Those guys have been replaced by Rasmus (who even if he hits like he did with the Cards last season would have been worth 2 WAR, AKA a 3 win upgrade from last year), Kelly Johnson (who even at 2 WAR would be a 2 win upgrade, and I'd bet on the over), Lawrie (he played in August/September but he's a 2-3 win upgrade over John McDonad/Jayson Nix and friends for 4 months last season).

That's before we get to the pitching - Jo Jo Reyes got 110 innings (4.63 FIP, 5.40 ERA), Brett Cecil (123 innings, 5.10 FIP), and another 20 starts from Villanueva and Litsch who had 5 or so FIP as SP. That's about 300-350 innings of 5 FIP guys.

They've been replaced by Henderson Alvarez (who I think it's fair to say will beat that), and there's at least some upside in either Carreno/Drabek. Not saying they'll reach it, but I would expect something better than a 5 FIP.

That's before I mention the bullpen, and I have to think that Santos/Oliver/Janssen/Frasor/Cordero is another win or so better than Frank Fransisco, Jon Rauch, Shawn Camp etc.

There isn't a chance the Jays finish below, or at 500 unless they get hit hard with injuries. There's just too much upside for them to be merely as good as they were last year. I don't have an issue with the ranking, but I have to completely disagreed that they'll just be a 500 squad. I don't buy the divisional argument, but then I think Boston is fairly overrated and not nearly as talented as people give them credit for.

wamco
04-13-2012, 05:43 AM
It is a better team. When you go through all 25 roster spots, and compare it to 2011, there is no way you can argue this is not an improved team.

The changes aren't even that subtle though. Big improvements in defence, huge production increase at 3b and 2b (as compared to what Hill was delivering) and JPA is defying expectations defensively as well.

Couple that with the farm system which is bursting at the seams, this team is VASTLY improved from last years team that took the field on opening day.

How so? Dropping that bautista throw and allowing the 2 passed balls from santos has cost the team 2 games already.

Are the Rays, sox and yanks improved from last year's opening day? Of course.

Halladay
04-13-2012, 06:34 AM
How so? Dropping that bautista throw and allowing the 2 passed balls from santos has cost the team 2 games already.

Are the Rays, sox and yanks improved from last year's opening day? Of course.

But the Yanks and Sox really haven't improved. The Yankees are getting old, they can still outhit just about anyone but their pitching is suspect. Can't imagine what they'd do if CC went down. The Sox lost an elite closer, replaced him with Bailey who's now injured. Their rotation could go a million different ways as well. Youk seems to be regressing, there's absolutely no way IMO that Ellsbury can repeat his 2011 performance...The Sox will be a threat in the East but they aren't nearly as scary as in years past. I'd take the Rays pitching and D over either the Yanks or Sox...that's what I'm hoping for at least.

Valleyfella
04-13-2012, 08:30 AM
Only Romero, Bautista, Escobar and Janssen of the Jays who were with the team from start to finish had truly good years in 2011. There is no reason to believe any of the four will regress significantly. That is countered by a full year of Lawrie and Alvarez, a deeper bullpen with a true closer and a slew of players who should be able to improve on a poor or mediocre year ( Lind, Johnson, Drabek, Davis, Arencibia, Rasmus, etc... ).

StealingSigns
04-13-2012, 09:06 AM
How so? Dropping that bautista throw and allowing the 2 passed balls from santos has cost the team 2 games already.

Are the Rays, sox and yanks improved from last year's opening day? Of course.

The Rays are the only team of the three you listed who are improved. The Sox and Yankees have regressed. Massive long term contracts to aging stars have a tendency to do that to teams.

miller74
04-13-2012, 09:07 AM
Good young players, usually become better. Defense and bullpen is much much better.

miller74
04-13-2012, 09:08 AM
How so? Dropping that bautista throw and allowing the 2 passed balls from santos has cost the team 2 games already.

Are the Rays, sox and yanks improved from last year's opening day? Of course.

He def should have had the throw from bautista but one of the was a wild pitch

ramz.n
04-13-2012, 09:12 AM
well you have alvarez for the start of the season..+ you hopefully have the drabek who you traded for based on potential as a key building block..you have rasmus who has a change of scenary could have a impact year like escobar did when he had his first full season with the jays last year and hes starting over raj davis..and you have lawrie starting the season at 3B instead of EE..davis is coming off the bench like he should and provides speed along with francisco

Valleyfella
04-13-2012, 10:05 AM
Another factor is Morrow. He has "ace" stuff and is showing signs that he can harness it consistently. If so, he Romero and Alvarez could be a pretty lethal bulk of the rotation. Guys like Drabek, McGowan and whoever, then just need to be mediocre for the Jays to stay in the race.

ILDD
04-13-2012, 10:11 AM
Of course the team is better

Just looking at the problem positions from 2011 - the team got the following production from these (all figures fWAR)

2B 0.5
CF -0.9
3B 3.3
Reyes, Cecil and Litsch 300 IP, 2.0 WAR

Replace 2B with Kelly Johnson, say 3.0 WAR
Replace CF with Rasmus, say 3.0 WAR
Replace 3B with Lawrie, say 4.5 WAR
Replace those 300 IP with Alvarez and Drabek, say 3.5 WAR total

We replaced 2011 4.9 WAR with 14.0 WAR.

Yes, the team got significantly better without even saying Arencibia could improve, Morrow could improve, Lind almost has to improve, the bullpen likely will be improved.

wamco
04-13-2012, 10:33 AM
The Yankees are getting old, they can still outhit just about anyone but their pitching is suspect. Fangraphs put their pitching way above ours. Added pineda and kurado, that is an improvement of course.

es0terik
04-13-2012, 10:37 AM
You're talking about a Jays team that regularly fielded Corey Patterson, Jayson Nix, John McDonald, Juan Rivera, Brett Cecil, JoJo Reyes.

+ Rajai Davis, Mike McCoy, Aaron Hill, Edwin Encarnacion (3B), Jesse Litsch, Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel getting regular time at their positions.

We also got a load of useless at-bats from Snider while he was slumping, and a load of bad innings from Drabek when he was having trouble. We got a few at-bats from Mark Teahen, and we had no real 5th starter for a large chunk of the season (Drabek to Litsch to Villanueva to Perez to McGowan, etc).

darth helmet
04-13-2012, 10:39 AM
How so? Dropping that bautista throw and allowing the 2 passed balls from santos has cost the team 2 games already.

Are the Rays, sox and yanks improved from last year's opening day? Of course.

I'm not going to try and sell anyone on JPs defence but it's unfair to point fingers solely on him for the loss. Santos more than anyone contributed to what transpired that game with his lack of control. The balls shouldn't have been in the dirt in the first place for JP to have to block them. The situation shouldn't have been developed where Bautista has to beat out a runner at home plate. Even if JP caught that ball, the play was so close there was no guarantee he would have gotten him out anyway.

es0terik
04-13-2012, 10:51 AM
You can't point fingers to ANY ONE PERSON for a loss. There are 27 outs to be made, and 8 other batsmen that could have done something to ensure that even costing those runs wouldn't lose the game. Just because he may have cost the last run means nothing. There's a reason why one play like that doesn't automatically give you a -1.0 WAR.

craigerlee
04-13-2012, 10:52 AM
Jason Nix, Corey Patterson and Jojo Reyes. Nuff said.

alistar
04-13-2012, 10:57 AM
The Yankees are getting old, they can still outhit just about anyone but their pitching is suspect. Fangraphs put their pitching way above ours. Added pineda and kurado, that is an improvement of course.

It's funny how the argument is always the Yankees are old and their pitching is crap, yet they still make the playoffs almost every year.

scottythegreat1
04-13-2012, 11:12 AM
On paper, we are.

There shouldnt be that much turnover this year. Last year, we were shuffling the lineup, releasing players that didnt turn out as well, trading away our spare parts at the trade deadline for a potential superstar (Rasmus).

Honestly, We are lucky to have gone 4-2 at this point.....Santos has 2 blown saves, Romero had a rocky first start, Joel Carreno barely got through the 5th inning, and Jose Bautista is off to a slow start at the plate. Our defense has held the fort, and after Sergio Santos, the bullpen has done their job.

I know that Jose Bautista will turn around, many of the better hitters in the league are streaky, his home runs will likely come in bunches. So far, as least for me, the biggest surprise has been Edwin Encarnacion, leading the team in RBIs, who would have thought??

bomber0104
04-13-2012, 11:40 AM
How so? Dropping that bautista throw and allowing the 2 passed balls from santos has cost the team 2 games already.

Are the Rays, sox and yanks improved from last year's opening day? Of course.

how did that cost us 2 games when all these things happened in the same inning?

rubeus
04-13-2012, 02:22 PM
I'm not going to try and sell anyone on JPs defence but it's unfair to point fingers solely on him for the loss. Santos more than anyone contributed to what transpired that game with his lack of control. The balls shouldn't have been in the dirt in the first place for JP to have to block them. The situation shouldn't have been developed where Bautista has to beat out a runner at home plate. Even if JP caught that ball, the play was so close there was no guarantee he would have gotten him out anyway.

I'm just going to say in arencebia's defence, That throw from Bautista was
brutal.
I was at the game. HE bounced it twice. The first bounce near the base path.
From that shallow right field Bautista would usually fire a strike and
the runner would be out no problem.
HE just released it wrong.
Now of course if JP had of held on to it, it might have been a close play.

nithanyo
04-13-2012, 02:59 PM
I'd actually argue that going into the 2006-2008 Seasons the Onfield product was better

The 06 season saw us get Ryan, AJ, Glaus and Overbay to a core of a young Halladay Wells and Rios.

Going into 07 we had amazing seasons by Rios, Wells, Halladay, Glaus , Overbay and Ryan the new addition of DH of Thomas and a 87 win second place finish.

Going into 08 we had the strongest pitching staff in baseball and a payroll on the verge of $100 mill.

Again the average fan doesn't know about our deep farm. We had a the least active offseason since 04 when our prized signing was Corey koskie. So where did this rejuvenated enthusiasm come from

Ragin' Cajun
04-13-2012, 03:02 PM
The Jays have a better team start of this year than last year. If we have bounce back years from KJ and Rasmus we are a deadly offense and Solid D -Thames who should not be allowed on the field period.

wamco
04-13-2012, 03:41 PM
I'd actually argue that going into the 2006-2008 Seasons the Onfield product was better

The 06 season saw us get Ryan, AJ, Glaus and Overbay to a core of a young Halladay Wells and Rios.

Going into 07 we had amazing seasons by Rios, Wells, Halladay, Glaus , Overbay and Ryan the new addition of DH of Thomas and a 87 win second place finish.

Going into 08 we had the strongest pitching staff in baseball and a payroll on the verge of $100 mill.

Again the average fan doesn't know about our deep farm. We had a the least active offseason since 04 when our prized signing was Corey koskie. So where did this rejuvenated enthusiasm come from

Back then you could get free agents cheaper as well, which I pointed out then of course and was told to wait for the magical 2010 season...

Towelie
04-15-2012, 08:49 PM
You have to be optimistic at the start of a season, it's a fresh start and the team is solid. Hard not to get excited about it at this point.

TO Rapz
04-15-2012, 11:06 PM
http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=690968

Rogi10
04-16-2012, 12:11 AM
I'd actually argue that going into the 2006-2008 Seasons the Onfield product was better

The 06 season saw us get Ryan, AJ, Glaus and Overbay to a core of a young Halladay Wells and Rios.

Going into 07 we had amazing seasons by Rios, Wells, Halladay, Glaus , Overbay and Ryan the new addition of DH of Thomas and a 87 win second place finish.

Going into 08 we had the strongest pitching staff in baseball and a payroll on the verge of $100 mill.

Again the average fan doesn't know about our deep farm. We had a the least active offseason since 04 when our prized signing was Corey koskie. So where did this rejuvenated enthusiasm come from

08 had zero offense. Vdub led the team with 20hr's. 08was no doubt the best pitching staff of the past 10 years, but I'd argue that 12 is a much more complete team, with weaker pitching, but stronger offense.

ILDD
04-16-2012, 08:18 AM
08 had zero offense. Vdub led the team with 20hr's. 08was no doubt the best pitching staff of the past 10 years, but I'd argue that 12 is a much more complete team, with weaker pitching, but stronger offense.

Agreed, best pitching I can remember, such a shame that the offence was horrific that year.

I think that the current group has potential to be a better team, the pitching likely won't be as good but the bats are going to be an order of magnitude better.