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View Full Version : Votto...again I know.



JaysFan87
04-02-2012, 12:55 PM
I know its just another thread about him but I think its significant enough to warrant a thread.


According to Tim Dierkes and Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLBTradeRumors.com, the Reds are nearing an extension with Joey Votto that "could surpass $200 million."

Dont know if its true or not but it could be another player that is unavailable through FA.

Disclaimer
I am not posting this becasue he is Canadian and I want him here for that reason. I want him becasue he is a damn good player.

StealingSigns
04-02-2012, 01:00 PM
If true, that is some crazy coinage. Good for him, not so good for the Jays....

Bombtista
04-02-2012, 01:06 PM
Damn. He would make around that if he hits FA so I dont see him declining if he gets a 200+ million contract.

Whos the next stud first baseman close to FA?

JermanJaysFan
04-02-2012, 01:34 PM
Damn. He would make around that if he hits FA so I dont see him declining if he gets a 200+ million contract.

Whos the next stud first baseman close to FA?

Can't really think of one.

I wouldn't be surprised if we fill that position with Jose a couple years down the line, assuming 3 of Snider/Rasmus/Gose/Marisnick/Thames pan out.

Kelly Gruber
04-02-2012, 01:35 PM
Who cares we have Lind...

But seriously only hope we have now is the negotiations turn really ugly suddenly. But he wasn't coming here anyways...

torontosports10
04-02-2012, 02:07 PM
Well Jose will be at first in 2-3 years when Gose and Marinsick are ready for the OF

Converged
04-02-2012, 02:08 PM
It was always a pipe dream for him to come to TO anyways. Would have loved to have him, but didn't see it happening. Maybe I'm a pessimist lol.

bomber0104
04-02-2012, 02:42 PM
i'm not surprised one bit.. this was the year to get that big 1B and the Jays pussied out. Can't fault them either. Its gonna be almost impossible for the Jays to get a stud 1B in the near future.. I can't think of any that might become available and we sure aren't developing one soon

GNick
04-02-2012, 03:00 PM
At least it puts closure on Votto coming here

Sanyo
04-02-2012, 03:09 PM
1B are a dime a dozen in terms of converting them. You can even try out Snider at 1b and get him some time there. Batista is another guy who could be there in 3 years. Sure they dont have the power of a guy like Votto or Pujols, but all is not lost...

wagnall
04-02-2012, 03:18 PM
At least it puts closure on Votto coming here

Amen, else we would spend another year wanting him. If he gets over 200m from them then I guess it makes more sence to give a 28 year old 200m than 240m to a 32 year old. Even though no one is worth that much money. :)

2009mvp
04-02-2012, 03:26 PM
No one else finds it pretty damn cool that an Etobicoke boy not only reached the bigs but has an MVP award and a 200M contract under his belt? I mean it was great seeing all those guys from out in BC excel but this is a real hometown kid. Awesome stuff, even if it's with the wrong team.

rapsjaysfan88
04-02-2012, 03:43 PM
maybe we sign swisher 2 play 1b...

The_Jet11
04-02-2012, 03:46 PM
Jose will have to become our slugging 1B in a couple years. With that though, it will be difficult to find a bat like Votto's anywhere else on the diamond. I think by 2014, you could expect to see a line-up something along these lines (using only guys under contract, and if no trades or FAs are brought in):

CF - Gose (L)
2B - Escobar (R)
3B - Lawrie (R)
1B - Bautista (R)
DH - Lind/Arencibia (L/R)
C - D'Arnaud/Arencibia (R)
LF - Snider/Rasmus (L)
RF - Marisnick (R)
SS - Hechevarria (R)

I doubt we'll keep both JP and D'Arnaud, but if JP could eventually play a Napoli sort of role, it might be a great way to ensure that we have protection for an injury to a C, and that whoever is back there can actually produce with the stick!

I'm not sure how the 2B/SS situation will shake out.

Also, I'd like to see a big bopper brought in to hit 5th, but i'm not sure it'll happen...

Imagine the damage guys like Gose (40+ steals), Marisnick (25+), Lawrie (20+), Snider (15+) and Hechevarria (20+) could do on the basepaths?!

Ace Drivers
04-02-2012, 03:47 PM
If the white sox are serious about a rebuild, they should send Konerko our way...he maybe the only guy worth a trade not already locked up for years...maybe Micheal young?

Both old guys who could shore up the position for a year or two while we figure out another plan...

Assuming of course Lind continues his inconsistent ways

BlueJayFanDan
04-02-2012, 04:01 PM
Meh, Votto was always a pipe dream, and for that kind of money I am happier without him.

wagnall
04-02-2012, 04:02 PM
I want to see what Thames does this year before I blow him off the 2014 line up. And I am fairly certain that AA is committing to Lind for this season and if he falls off the rails by TD, then maybe AA makes a deal or if Gose is looking good for 2013 and Rasmus gets his bat put back together, I would move Rasmus to RF . Gose to centre and put Bautista at 1st for 2013. JMHO

The_Jet11
04-02-2012, 04:02 PM
hopefully one of Lind, Cooper or McDade will jump up and grab the bull by the horns, for years to come, but i'm not sure any of them are a long term solution..

Cabby
04-02-2012, 04:14 PM
Cain is nearing extension as well. Just another FA ace off the market.

2009mvp
04-02-2012, 04:16 PM
Yup, FA market is pretty thin for the forseeable future. I'm all for giving Hamels a blank cheque at this point. Or Greinke, though I think Hamels will age well.

Ace Drivers
04-02-2012, 04:18 PM
Cain is nearing extension as well. Just another FA ace off the market.

Seems like this is the new trend...big name free agents are going to become harder to come by, as in they will stay with their teams...I was actually very surprised Pujols left...

wamco
04-02-2012, 04:20 PM
At least it puts closure on Votto coming here

no crap

wamco
04-02-2012, 04:23 PM
maybe we sign swisher 2 play 1b...

I suggested that as well the other day. I read comments from swisher about his strong preference to play for NY though and combine that with noone pushing him out of his position and it would be a shock if he isn't in NY next year. "i know how I'd write the story" alluding to resigning.

1903
04-02-2012, 04:23 PM
Jays never would have signed him anyways if he was going to command that type of deal as a FA. Rogers is too reluctant to let go of their bags of money.

wamco
04-02-2012, 04:24 PM
Cain is nearing extension as well. Just another FA ace off the market.

hence why signing a premier free agent and "wasting" a year in a non competing year isn't the worst thing in the world. It certainly was ok with bautista.

mtf
04-02-2012, 04:35 PM
Jays never would have signed him anyways if he was going to command that type of deal as a FA. Rogers is too reluctant to let go of their bags of money.

Agreed

JaysFan87
04-02-2012, 04:40 PM
Cain is nearing extension as well. Just another FA ace off the market.

Im far far more hesitant to give big money and especially term to older pitchers than hitters. They are a ton more risky and tend to have short peaks in their careers than hitters. If i had too choose id rather give teh big money to a hitter.

Big Hurt
04-02-2012, 05:08 PM
You need to pay market value for a FA. Not too many favorite team discounts out there for sure.
Hopefully Jose will still be a beast when our young prospects are contributing.

Eagles4Lyfe
04-02-2012, 05:30 PM
Hearing this angers me more but whatever. I still have hope in this team to make the playoffs and what not but not giving Jose protection for a couple years is pretty sad. Unless Lawrie this year can fill that gap

Krylian
04-02-2012, 05:46 PM
Damn. He would make around that if he hits FA so I dont see him declining if he gets a 200+ million contract.

Whos the next stud first baseman close to FA?

Bautista will be the Jays 1B as soon as 2013.

2009mvp
04-02-2012, 07:26 PM
10/225. Safe to say (for better or for worse) he nor any other player is gonna be a Blue Jay at that price.

es0terik
04-02-2012, 08:23 PM
If Arencibia could raise his average this year, I'd LOVE to have him at first base. I really don't want to trade the guy, he seems to be the heartbeat of the clubhouse. I also don't want to give him a job over d'Arnaud. I would love to have him at first base if he showed that he could hit for average. And after 2013 EE also goes out, JP could be the DH too.

The_Jet11
04-02-2012, 08:30 PM
i like JP as a Napoli type of player. keep him and D'Arnaud, unless you get a sweetheart deal for one of them.

JermanJaysFan
04-02-2012, 08:39 PM
If Arencibia could raise his average this year, I'd LOVE to have him at first base. I really don't want to trade the guy, he seems to be the heartbeat of the clubhouse. I also don't want to give him a job over d'Arnaud. I would love to have him at first base if he showed that he could hit for average. And after 2013 EE also goes out, JP could be the DH too.


i like JP as a Napoli type of player. keep him and D'Arnaud, unless you get a sweetheart deal for one of them.
Unless JPA really seriously develops a hitter beyond pretty much anyone's expectations, he doesn't carry much value at all as a 1B or DH. He's got a hell of a long way to go before he even comes close to producing the way Napoli did last year. The fact that he can catch gives him solid value on the trade market.

idrinkpepsi
04-02-2012, 09:01 PM
JPA would have to skyrocket on the average and OBP especially to even get consideration at first.

wamco
04-02-2012, 09:53 PM
yay, more talk of jpa at 1b. facepalm x 100. Some people just don't get it.

wamco
04-02-2012, 09:59 PM
This votto contract is IN ADDITION to the current contract so it goes until he is 40. Talk about a stupid contract.

StealingSigns
04-02-2012, 10:03 PM
i like JP as a Napoli type of player. keep him and D'Arnaud, unless you get a sweetheart deal for one of them.

There is no way that AA keeps JPA over d'Arnaud. JPA's bat only plays at catcher, he is not a Napoli type of player if you look at his stats beyond HR's.

wamco
04-02-2012, 10:15 PM
he meant barajas type player

The_Jet11
04-02-2012, 10:27 PM
Apparently you've all failed to realize, that until last year, Napoli wasn't what you're all framing as a "Napoli" type of player.

He had a terrific year last season, but I'm not ready to proclaim that he'll be .320/.414/.631 hitter year in and year out.

Take Napoli at what he's been over his career: a .264/.359/.514 hitter (including his career year!) with good power, suspect defense behind the plate, and some ability to play 1B.

I think Arencibia has a chance to become THAT type of player.

Consider Nap, in 2010 at age 28: .238/.316/.468/.784 with 26 HR, 68 RBI, 137 SO and 42 BB in 510 PAs.
Arencibia, as a rookie in 2011 (age 25): .219/.282/.438/.720 with 23 HR, 78 RBI, 133 SO and 36 BB in 486 PAs .. all while cutting his teeth with a big league pitching staff, and dealing with a lingering thumb injury for the second half of the season.

I would expect a modest improvement from JP this season too, so who is to say he can't put up numbers similar to Napoli's career averages.

stsparks72
04-02-2012, 10:29 PM
Whos the next stud first baseman close to FA?Votto was about the last big free agent 1B worthy of that kind of money. The Reds wanted to sign Votto to a long term deal prior to the start of the 2011 season. Votto and his agent were smart enough to realize that Pujols and Fielder would become free agents first allowing them to sit back and wait for the big contract. Bottom line, Votto will be a Red through the 2023 season making 22.5mil per year on the extension. The Reds are going to need to win at least one championship over the next 3 to 4 years to make it worthwhile.

BTW, any chance we Reds fans can get you to change your signature now? I never really liked that picture. LOL!

Eagles4Lyfe
04-02-2012, 10:47 PM
Wait wouldnt Jose play DH before 1B??

nithanyo
04-02-2012, 10:58 PM
Apparently you've all failed to realize, that until last year, Napoli wasn't what you're all framing as a "Napoli" type of player.

He had a terrific year last season, but I'm not ready to proclaim that he'll be .320/.414/.631 hitter year in and year out.

Take Napoli at what he's been over his career: a .264/.359/.514 hitter (including his career year!) with good power, suspect defense behind the plate, and some ability to play 1B.

I think Arencibia has a chance to become THAT type of player.

Consider Nap, in 2010 at age 28: .238/.316/.468/.784 with 26 HR, 68 RBI, 137 SO and 42 BB in 510 PAs.
Arencibia, as a rookie in 2011 (age 25): .219/.282/.438/.720 with 23 HR, 78 RBI, 133 SO and 36 BB in 486 PAs .. all while cutting his teeth with a big league pitching staff, and dealing with a lingering thumb injury for the second half of the season.

I would expect a modest improvement from JP this season too, so who is to say he can't put up numbers similar to Napoli's career averages.

this.

people don't give enough credit to JPA.

He was handling a young pitching staff, playing with an injured thumb and was second in major league catchers in home runs (i believe). Im expecting better numbers from him

scottythegreat1
04-02-2012, 11:19 PM
AA wouldnt go out and get an elite player that wants 7+ years, and I dont blame him. Ive seen enough of these mega million contracts to know that they are good for a few years, and then they die out after awhile. I bet Votto does well for the first 6 or so, then he will fade.

Dont be surprised if Votto gets traded away to the LA Dodgers or the Cubs in a few years when the Reds cant afford to keep him around.

Im almost willing to bet that Votto starts the All-Star game now that Fielder and Pujols are in the American League. Only Ryan Howard can truly duel him for a starting spot now.

stsparks72
04-02-2012, 11:30 PM
Dont be surprised if Votto gets traded away to the LA Dodgers or the Cubs in a few years when the Reds cant afford to keep him around.Votto's new extension includes a no trade clause.

koreancabbage
04-03-2012, 12:08 AM
this.

people don't give enough credit to JPA.

He was handling a young pitching staff, playing with an injured thumb and was second in major league catchers in home runs (i believe). Im expecting better numbers from him

I think he gets his due justice from this forum, esp when they are saying he should be playing first (which is a huge compliment for Arencibia btw)

yes, he has value at being a catcher, but he would also help net us something that we would need in a package, when we have D'Arnaud is waiting in the wings- who is arguably a better offensive catcher. I would say its moot on the play calling (Arencibia was horrible when he first came up) and defense but its gotten a lit bit better for sure.

Bombtista
04-03-2012, 12:16 AM
I think he gets his due justice from this forum, esp when they are saying he should be playing first (which is a huge compliment for Arencibia btw)

yes, he has value at being a catcher, but he would also help net us something that we would need in a package, when we have D'Arnaud is waiting in the wings- who is arguably a better offensive catcher. I would say its moot on the play calling (Arencibia was horrible when he first came up) and defense but its gotten a lit bit better for sure.

What if d'Arnaud doesnt pan out? Both players were MVP's in the minors and its way to early to call the winner of the two yet.

Arencibia's power is real and could very well put up 30 home runs as early as next season if he plays well.

ghost dog
04-03-2012, 12:53 AM
Somebody say April fools please. Damn it's the second

saskjaysfan
04-03-2012, 01:42 AM
What if d'Arnaud doesnt pan out? Both players were MVP's in the minors and its way to early to call the winner of the two yet.

Arencibia's power is real and could very well put up 30 home runs as early as next season if he plays well.

I like D'Arnaud as a prospect but that is all he is. I feel fortunate to have Arencibia and all he brings to the team. This is a player who has really embraced the team and the country. He is a friend and mentor to Lawrie which is important. Arencibia is also a bridge between the pitchers and position players similar to the way Bautista is a bridge between the Latin and the North American Players. I can see D'Arnaud being traded to fill another organizational need if we are contending. Or the two catchers might split home plate with Arencibia starting 60 games behind the plate, 20 at first and 30 at DH.

saskjaysfan
04-03-2012, 01:47 AM
And about Votto, I am glad that we didn't sign him for that long. In two years Bautista will be playing first base as young outfields such as Gose, Marisnick, Rasmus, Snider, and maybe Thames or Sierra hopefully become established everyday players. Having a Votto would have been great as I remember the WBC from a few years back. But it was never any more realistic than getting Pujols or Fielder (passports aside).

wamco
04-03-2012, 04:21 AM
Take Napoli at what he's been over his career: a .264/.359/.514 hitter (including his career year!) with good power, suspect defense behind the plate, and some ability to play 1B.

I think Arencibia has a chance to become THAT type of player.

how

GNick
04-03-2012, 06:23 AM
Votto type of contract I cannot understand as I see it hard for a mid market team to spend 20-25% of total team payroll on one player. Don't have enough payroll left to surround him with good players. Can't win with 1 star player alone...sort of handcuffing oneself for next 10 years. We found that out with Delgado then Wells. At least in AL East.

wamco
04-03-2012, 06:48 AM
clearly would have been better off giving up tons of top prospects and this contract to votto rather than sign fielder. Now I see the light.

pebloemer
04-03-2012, 08:31 AM
Does this mean Brandon Phillips hits FA next year?

scottythegreat1
04-03-2012, 10:19 AM
Votto's new extension includes a no trade clause.

That doesnt mean that Votto wont waive his no-trade rights. Although, Im not familiar with Votto's preferences, Im sure that there's somewhere he would like to go if Cincinatti has to trade him. I was well aware of Votto's full-no trade clause, in fact, pretty much every deal longer than 5 years has a no-trade clause of some sort (usually a full no-trade clause).

adid727
04-03-2012, 10:23 AM
Say it ain't so Joe :(

GNick
04-03-2012, 04:17 PM
Does this mean Brandon Phillips hits FA next year?

I would say yes. Hard for mid market teams to keep these caliber of players when 1 star (Votto) is making 25% of total payroll. The Giants may run into same thing when they go to re-up Linecum.

rapsjaysfan88
04-03-2012, 05:24 PM
so many ppl disappointed, why? we weren't getting him anyways. we werent trading are farm or signing a 10 year contract. why you suprised?

wagnall
04-03-2012, 06:01 PM
This votto contract is IN ADDITION to the current contract so it goes until he is 40. Talk about a stupid contract.

12 years 251m. In about 6 years theres going to be 3 teams who'll look back and say what the hell did we do and what do we do with this guy for the next 4 years. AH the Wells dilemma only more expensive. :)

2009mvp
04-03-2012, 07:12 PM
12 years 251m. In about 6 years theres going to be 3 teams who'll look back and say what the hell did we do and what do we do with this guy for the next 4 years. AH the Wells dilemma only more expensive. :)

Then they'll look up at the division/league/World Series banners hanging and remember the answer. It's so lazy to just say 'zomg, so much money!' instead of looking at the positions these teams and baseball as a whole is in right now. There's a reason the Dodger franchise fetched 2 billion dollars.

craigerlee
04-03-2012, 08:10 PM
Then they'll look up at the division/league/World Series banners hanging and remember the answer. It's so lazy to just say 'zomg, so much money!' instead of looking at the positions these teams and baseball as a whole is in right now. There's a reason the Dodger franchise fetched 2 billion dollars.

You can't seriously be comparing the Dodger franchise to the Reds franchise? There's no money minting TV network to start up here for the Reds. I agree the Angels and possibly Detroit won't regret these deals, but the Reds surely will. This was just a bad contract on their behalf they didn't get any type of discount at all, they could of made this deal next year most likely. Guaranteeing a 28 year old 1B 12 years is crazy for probably the 3rd or 4th smallest MLB market. You just know this deal is gonna be stupidly backloaded too.

2009mvp
04-03-2012, 09:50 PM
You can't seriously be comparing the Dodger franchise to the Reds franchise? There's no money minting TV network to start up here for the Reds.

Not directly comparing the two, just pointing out that it is a sign of just how much money is in baseball right now. Obviously the TV rights are a huge chunk of that but not all.


I agree the Angels and possibly Detroit won't regret these deals, but the Reds surely will.

The Jays are by my account somewhere between the 8th-11th strongest team in baseball right now with about an 80M payroll. If the Reds can go 90-100M why can't they be a perennial NL title contender for the next 5+ years? Are they better with an extra 25M a year to spend on bit players or with an MVP level player at first base? Obviously the back-end will be a problem, but that's just reality when it comes to these kind of deals. I'm not saying they'll get 214M (or whatever the number is) of actual on-field production out of Votto by the end of the deal, but depending on how they value being competitive at the front end (and the increased revenue that brings) it's a perfectly justifiable gamble.


This was just a bad contract on their behalf they didn't get any type of discount at all, they could of made this deal next year most likely. Guaranteeing a 28 year old 1B 12 years is crazy for probably the 3rd or 4th smallest MLB market. You just know this deal is gonna be stupidly backloaded too.

That's the biggest knock on the deal. Much like the Braun and Tulo deals it was probably premature.

craigerlee
04-03-2012, 10:50 PM
Not directly comparing the two, just pointing out that it is a sign of just how much money is in baseball right now. Obviously the TV rights are a huge chunk of that but not all.



The Jays are by my account somewhere between the 8th-11th strongest team in baseball right now with about an 80M payroll. If the Reds can go 90-100M why can't they be a perennial NL title contender for the next 5+ years? Are they better with an extra 25M a year to spend on bit players or with an MVP level player at first base? Obviously the back-end will be a problem, but that's just reality when it comes to these kind of deals. I'm not saying they'll get 214M (or whatever the number is) of actual on-field production out of Votto by the end of the deal, but depending on how they value being competitive at the front end (and the increased revenue that brings) it's a perfectly justifiable gamble.



That's the biggest knock on the deal. Much like the Braun and Tulo deals it was probably premature.

Thing is they have Votto locked up for 2 years. That's their window, cause after that guys like Bruce, Cueto and Latos start to get pretty expensive. So they're definitely gonna be at that 90-100M payroll pretty quick without being able to add much. They have a pretty barren system right now after the Latos deal so I just don't know how they're gonna add the finishing pieces to make this team a perennial contender once they lose Phillips next year. I think they're best chance to win is right now, so why not wait a year at least and see if you win a championship before locking up Votto to this type of deal.

JaysFan87
04-03-2012, 10:51 PM
Then they'll look up at the division/league/World Series banners hanging and remember the answer. It's so lazy to just say 'zomg, so much money!' instead of looking at the positions these teams and baseball as a whole is in right now. There's a reason the Dodger franchise fetched 2 billion dollars.

You are right when you say that the banners will be there. But in this case specifically its really really hard envisioning the reds being perennial contenders that can support a player like votto taking up 20-25% of the payroll. These types of long term deals cripple a franchise like the reds where the do not generate enough money to support a larger payroll and a player like Votto where they will be paying him large large dollars in his declining years (likely for half the deal). Its a great deal now if they think they are going to be WS contenders in the next 3-5 years. But they will not be getting the same production out of him in his declining years and they wont be able to support the team by acquiring other players becasue he takes up soo much of their payroll. I think thats why the commentary here and in many parts of the US say that this a deal that will hurt them longer term.


Now again I'm not against long term deals but no one can predict with any certainty can predict teh performance of a play 10, 8, or even 6 years from now. Thats why these deals are incredible risky. But in the logical sense you can not with any reason whatsoever predict a player will be productive post 35. If history has shown anything almost every player gets into a severe nosedive once the mid 30's come around.

Now if you told me that votto was 25-27 and he signed a deal with that money that will pay him until 35 I would be more willing to accept that even if his skills decline it wont be an albatross of a deal. Its still a huge risk and one that as a GM i likely wont take (i would be in favour of less year and more money per) but is one that i would understand and be more likely to accept.

JaysFan87
04-03-2012, 10:56 PM
Not directly comparing the two, just pointing out that it is a sign of just how much money is in baseball right now. Obviously the TV rights are a huge chunk of that but not all.



The Jays are by my account somewhere between the 8th-11th strongest team in baseball right now with about an 80M payroll. If the Reds can go 90-100M why can't they be a perennial NL title contender for the next 5+ years? Are they better with an extra 25M a year to spend on bit players or with an MVP level player at first base? Obviously the back-end will be a problem, but that's just reality when it comes to these kind of deals. I'm not saying they'll get 214M (or whatever the number is) of actual on-field production out of Votto by the end of the deal, but depending on how they value being competitive at the front end (and the increased revenue that brings) it's a perfectly justifiable gamble.



That's the biggest knock on the deal. Much like the Braun and Tulo deals it was probably premature.

I strongly disagree. I would rather give these deals early than later on their career. You never know wht to expect from players down the line but give a young player (25-27) a deal like this is far far more liekly to pay off than giving a player this money till his 40. The obvious benifit is that you remove one factor that could result in poor performance...AGE! If the player is younger you that poor performance is far more likely to come due to an injury than declining skills.

StealingSigns
04-03-2012, 11:04 PM
As Gnick already mentioned, this is the equivalent of the Blue Jays signing Delgado to the monster contract. At the time, they had no intention of surrounding him with the talent required to take it to the next level. They languished.

The Reds will regret this. This is obscene coinage for a team with financial constraints.

2009mvp
04-03-2012, 11:30 PM
Thing is they have Votto locked up for 2 years. That's their window, cause after that guys like Bruce, Cueto and Latos start to get pretty expensive. So they're definitely gonna be at that 90-100M payroll pretty quick without being able to add much. They have a pretty barren system right now after the Latos deal so I just don't know how they're gonna add the finishing pieces to make this team a perennial contender once they lose Phillips next year.I think they're best chance to win is right now, so why not wait a year at least and see if you win a championship before locking up Votto to this type of deal.

I'm not at all disagreeing with that. They're assuming that A) they get two more consecutive years of elite production out of Votto AND B) he wouldn't have accepted 10/two hundred-whatever (sorry, don't remember the actual number) somewhere down the line. Seems like an awful lot of unnecessary risk on that part.


You are right when you say that the banners will be there. But in this case specifically its really really hard envisioning the reds being perennial contenders that can support a player like votto taking up 20-25% of the payroll. These types of long term deals cripple a franchise like the reds where the do not generate enough money to support a larger payroll and a player like Votto where they will be paying him large large dollars in his declining years (likely for half the deal).

Well, no ****. No offense, but I think I've posted enough around here where people should know I don't need to be told the baseball equivalent of 1+1=2. My point is we don't know where baseball and/or the Cincinnati organization is headed financially. Hell Heyman just reported that their owner "is said to have a bit of Steinbrenner in him," and that they've been pocketing a ton of cash from the revenue sharing system over the past few years. I think it was at least a year early and 2 years longer than it needed to be but at the same time I don't think the Reds just committed baseball suicide the way so many others seem to.


Its a great deal now if they think they are going to be WS contenders in the next 3-5 years. But they will not be getting the same production out of him in his declining years and they wont be able to support the team by acquiring other players becasue he takes up soo much of their payroll. I think thats why the commentary here and in many parts of the US say that this a deal that will hurt them longer term.

Again...duh.



Now again I'm not against long term deals but no one can predict with any certainty can predict teh performance of a play 10, 8, or even 6 years from now. Thats why these deals are incredible risky. But in the logical sense you can not with any reason whatsoever predict a player will be productive post 35. If history has shown anything almost every player gets into a severe nosedive once the mid 30's come around.

Now if you told me that votto was 25-27 and he signed a deal with that money that will pay him until 35 I would be more willing to accept that even if his skills decline it wont be an albatross of a deal. Its still a huge risk and one that as a GM i likely wont take (i would be in favour of less year and more money per) but is one that i would understand and be more likely to accept.

Old players decline?!? Whoa, I never woulda thunk it.

But seriously, if we really wanna think about the player specifically instead of throwing the same blanket over players of all skills and all positions:


To do this, I pulled every first baseman in history who had at least 2,000 plate appearances and a wRC+ between 142 to 161 from ages 24-27. Those are the ages that Votto has been a big leaguer for, and gives us a nice four year window leading up a playerís prime. Since Votto has a wRC+ of 152 and a WAR of 22.9 and all the players in the sample have a weighted average wRC+ of 150 and a WAR of 22.0, this group is almost identical in terms of recent performance to Votto at this point in his career.

And from ages 28-39:


The weighted average of the groupís wRC+ dropped from 150 to 137, still a fantastic total. These nine players compiled +354 WAR from 28-39 for a straight average of +39 WAR per player. A weighted average pushes the total up to +42 per player, but because guys who were unlikely to keep producing were dropped from the league before they could bring down their total numbers, a weighted average isnít appropriate here.

Click (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-have-previous-joey-vottos-aged/) to see the actual data.

This:


The reality is that there are a good number of positive comparisons for Votto, and any analysis that suggests that this deal is obviously not worth the money isnít presenting the whole picture. This deal could go very wrong, but previous first baseman who have performed in a similar manner at the same ages as Votto have gone on to have highly productive careers even as they got older.

At some point in the next 12 years, Joey Votto will stop being worth $20 million per year. If heís worth $30 million per year for a number of seasons up to that point, though, the Reds wonít care.

sums up my thinking pretty well.

2009mvp
04-03-2012, 11:35 PM
I strongly disagree. I would rather give these deals early than later on their career. You never know wht to expect from players down the line but give a young player (25-27) a deal like this is far far more liekly to pay off than giving a player this money till his 40. The obvious benifit is that you remove one factor that could result in poor performance...AGE! If the player is younger you that poor performance is far more likely to come due to an injury than declining skills.

:laugh2: Seriously, that's what you thought I meant? I'm in the ****ing twilight zone or something, aren't I? Neither of us were referring to age specifically, what I meant was the monster extensions for all three players were all inked with at least two years of team control remaining. That's two years where a serious injury or a down year could affect their future value and a whole lot of (seemingly) unnecessary risk.

craigerlee
04-03-2012, 11:54 PM
I'm not at all disagreeing with that. They're assuming that A) they get two more consecutive years of elite production out of Votto AND B) he wouldn't have accepted 10/two hundred-whatever (sorry, don't remember the actual number) somewhere down the line. Seems like an awful lot of unnecessary risk on that part.


As long as you offer him that like St. Louis did with Pujols you still save face and he becomes the villian to the fans if he doesn't take it. If this team doesn't win in the next 2 years I really don't like they're chances of winning after that with less payroll flexibility as this deal isn't making them better or bringing more fans into the stands. I just think they would of been better off doing what St. Louis did with Pujols if they couldn't get a discount. Paying market value 2 years before he becomes a free agent is just ridiculous.

adid727
04-03-2012, 11:59 PM
Thing is they have Votto locked up for 2 years. That's their window, cause after that guys like Bruce, Cueto and Latos start to get pretty expensive. So they're definitely gonna be at that 90-100M payroll pretty quick without being able to add much. They have a pretty barren system right now after the Latos deal so I just don't know how they're gonna add the finishing pieces to make this team a perennial contender once they lose Phillips next year. I think they're best chance to win is right now, so why not wait a year at least and see if you win a championship before locking up Votto to this type of deal.

Exactly, it's not like votto would have asked for 300 million next year. He will still ask for 225 million. So their best option was wait one year to make sure everything is right and votto is still healthy before making any decisions. What if votto suffers a serious injury this year that would affect his future? the reds will look really stupid for rushing the deal.

adid727
04-04-2012, 12:01 AM
:laugh2: Seriously, that's what you thought I meant? I'm in the ****ing twilight zone or something, aren't I? Neither of us were referring to age specifically, what I meant was the monster extensions for all three players were all inked with at least two years of team control remaining. That's two years where a serious injury or a down year could affect their future value and a whole lot of (seemingly) unnecessary risk.

exactly.

JaysFan87
04-04-2012, 12:12 AM
:laugh2: Seriously, that's what you thought I meant? I'm in the ****ing twilight zone or something, aren't I? Neither of us were referring to age specifically, what I meant was the monster extensions for all three players were all inked with at least two years of team control remaining. That's two years where a serious injury or a down year could affect their future value and a whole lot of (seemingly) unnecessary risk.

I would rather overpay early and limit the age factor than pay for even mroe declining years. I saw your post above and its interesting. But for me it comes down to paying early and limiting yourself to less factors that lead to declining performance.

2009mvp
04-04-2012, 12:32 AM
As long as you offer him that like St. Louis did with Pujols you still save face and he becomes the villian to the fans if he doesn't take it. If this team doesn't win in the next 2 years I really don't like they're chances of winning after that with less payroll flexibility as this deal isn't making them better or bringing more fans into the stands. I just think they would of been better off doing what St. Louis did with Pujols if they couldn't get a discount. Paying market value 2 years before he becomes a free agent is just ridiculous.

Agreed, though I will concede that we don't really know what market value will be in two years. I mean, A-Gon signed basically a year ago and that's already looking like a steal compared to Pujols/Votto/Fielder (I know A-Gon's a bit older, so ignore the first couple years of Votto/Prince and it's still a favorable deal). With the Dodgers looming and a limited supply of elite free agents coming in the next few years I wouldn't be all that surprised if that turns out to be less than he could have gotten on the free market. It would obviously have to be an awful lot less to justify taking on the extra risk of signing him this early though, which probably isn't the case.

2009mvp
04-04-2012, 12:45 AM
I would rather overpay early and limit the age factor than pay for even mroe declining years. I saw your post above and its interesting. But for me it comes down to paying early and limiting yourself to less factors that lead to declining performance.

So...close...to using stupid facepalm...

All three deals were extensions, as in, in addition to the years the players were already under contract. No one was overpaying on the front end or 'limiting the age factor,' all they were doing was extending the player earlier than they needed to. We're talking about say a 7 year extension on top of a 2 year contract versus a 7 year extension on top of a 1 year contract, in which case the age of the player is still the same at the end of the deal. Now you could argue that as time goes on without an extension the player's desire to stay in a city might wane or that the market may expand in a years time, but stop spitting the same drivel about age.

JaysFan87
04-04-2012, 12:54 AM
So...close...to using stupid facepalm...

All three deals were extensions, as in, in addition to the years the players were already under contract. No one was overpaying on the front end or 'limiting the age factor,' all they were doing was extending the player earlier than they needed to. We're talking about say a 7 year extension on top of a 2 year contract versus a 7 year extension on top of a 1 year contract, in which case the age of the player is still the same at the end of the deal. Now you could argue that as time goes on without an extension the player's desire to stay in a city might wane or that the market may expand in a years time, but stop spitting the same drivel about age.

In this case Im not talking about Votto or the other extensions maybe I should have made myself clear. Im talking in the general sense. I would rather pay early on and hope the skills stay legit (and they are more liekly to the younger the player) than pay for far more likely declining years. In the general overall scheme of things.


But for clarification sake the in Tulo's case they ripped up the old contract while in Brauns case they added to it.

2009mvp
04-04-2012, 01:22 AM
In this case Im not talking about Votto or the other extensions maybe I should have made myself clear. Im talking in the general sense. I would rather pay early on and hope the skills stay legit (and they are more liekly to the younger the player) than pay for far more likely declining years. In the general overall scheme of things.

Which again, is pretty obvious, no? Who was disputing any of that?


But for clarification sake the in Tulo's case they ripped up the old contract while in Brauns case they added to it.

The old contract was set to expire after 2014. The only difference in the new contract up to that point is an extra million in 2014, his salary this season and next remained the same.

StealingSigns
04-04-2012, 01:35 AM
This thread is sort of redundant at this point, no?