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View Full Version : Morrow a top SP in 2012?



JMWerner
03-19-2012, 12:35 PM
A lot of Morrow's stats are trending in the right direction, especially walks. And according to a lot of ERA indicators, he's been highly unluckly since becoming a Blue Jay.

So what do you guys think? Can he become a top flight starter in 2012?

Here's a pretty good argument if you need convincing:

http://releasepoints.com/2012/03/19/brandon-morrow-will-become-one-of-the-best-in-baseball-in-2012

the_jon
03-19-2012, 12:57 PM
If Morrow does what his peripherals say he should be doing, we've got a pretty good 1-2 to build on. Always liked Morrow since I saw him in Seattle. Really hope he breaks out in a big way.

FlakeyFool
03-19-2012, 01:12 PM
that was an extremely interesting article

bartron_44
03-19-2012, 01:41 PM
If Morrow can keep his velocity in the mid 90's every start instead of bouncing between high 90's and low 90's then he should be more consistent. I know he averaged over 94mph, but that because he was throwing 98mph on several occasions to balance out the the days he only was throwing 91-93mph. When he throws over 95mph , he straight up dominates hitters.

I am excited to see what he can do this year.

nithanyo
03-19-2012, 02:03 PM
consistency is key with him. You see flashes of an ace i him and you see flashes of a scrub in him. When its all said and done i think he would make a nice number 3 in this rotation.

He reminds me a lot of Burnett. Similar fastball. But both of them got better as they learned to pitch rather than throw. I can see morrow having a better career if he can get his act together

JermanJaysFan
03-19-2012, 02:05 PM
If Morrow can keep his velocity in the mid 90's every start instead of bouncing between high 90's and low 90's then he should be more consistent. I know he averaged over 94mph, but that because he was throwing 98mph on several occasions to balance out the the days he only was throwing 91-93mph. When he throws over 95mph , he straight up dominates hitters.

I am excited to see what he can do this year.
Yeah- he has been most effective when he has straddled the line between overthrowing and slowing it down- he was most effective working around 94-95 last year.

I am pretty optimistic that he will show us something this year- at least a bit of a move towards the mid-3 ERA he "should" be posting as opposed to the mid-4. My biggest hope is that he can start getting a bit more efficient and working deeper into games.

McJoe
03-19-2012, 02:06 PM
I'm not very confident in Morrow and I'm certainly not one of his supporters, but if he pulls that off at all, I'd be beyond ecstatic. If he becomes a legit 2, I'll be excited, let alone if he does what the article suggests he could do...

JermanJaysFan
03-19-2012, 02:10 PM
I'm not very confident in Morrow and I'm certainly not one of his supporters, but if he pulls that off at all, I'd be beyond ecstatic. If he becomes a legit 2, I'll be excited, let alone if he does what the article suggests he could do...Just curious- why not? He has all the physical "stuff" tools to be a top starter, and has been showing fairly consistent improvement in trouble areas since becoming a full-time starter.

DeRozan10
03-19-2012, 02:10 PM
I am definately very optimistic about Morrow, and I think he can become a great SP

BUT

At the same time ..... Around this time last year he was pitching great in ST and a similar aticle came out about how good his stuff had been the year before, but now he was learning how to become and starting pitcher and all this stuff and the he was gonna be an absolute beast that year.

Got me so amped on him last year. But it didnt quite work out.

Bombtista
03-19-2012, 02:26 PM
Its so surprising to me that he is comparable to so many great pitchers in so many ways but just hasn't been able to keep it together for even 2 or 3 starts in a row.

Definetly the Jays biggest breakout candidate and in a big way which is exciting for a team with pitching as its weak point.

BlueJayFanDan
03-19-2012, 03:15 PM
I genuinely do not like Morrow and have little to no confidence in him, but I really hope he breaks out. He has so much potential, but he has basically the worst control ever. We will see what happens.

wamco
03-19-2012, 03:21 PM
he could take a step forward but so could clay b, matusz, w.davis, and hughes in our division

kanersen
03-19-2012, 03:44 PM
After reading that article, yeah I'm on-board this bandwagon, sign me up.

es0terik
03-19-2012, 03:49 PM
Love that article.

"His SIERA over the past two seasons is 3.31, the eighth lowest mark in baseball, trailing only Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke, Felix Hernandez, and Justin Verlander."

That part sent chills down my spine. That is the company in which Morrow will be in less than a year from now if he can finally figure it out.

Though I will say that I've been supporting Morrow since the day we traded for him. This guy is a sleeping monster.

Toxeryll
03-19-2012, 03:52 PM
hes my favorite pitcher in mlb and i certainly hope he finally breaks out this season

es0terik
03-19-2012, 03:57 PM
hes my favorite pitcher in mlb and i certainly hope he finally breaks out this season

This.

Sanyo
03-20-2012, 01:07 AM
I already predicted, barring any injuries, Morrow will lead the AL in strikeouts and drastically improve his stats...and certainly if he can develop that change up and work a little more on control, he could even become better than Ricky Romero -- Romero and Morrow could even be one of the top 1,2 in the league...

es0terik
03-20-2012, 01:42 AM
Except that while Morrow is incredibly underrated, Romero is overrated. He didn't have anything more than a decent season last year and even that was with the third lowest BABIP in the league. It's kind of dangerous when your staff ace is due to regress after an already unspectacular year. This is kind of why we really need Morrow and even Alvarez to step up. Romero is pretty much the ace by default right now but he doesn't have any business being at the top of a contending rotation.

the_jon
03-20-2012, 11:53 AM
Romero wasn't elite last year but he wasn't bad as far as number 1 starters around the league go.

darth helmet
03-20-2012, 12:26 PM
Romero is an OK ace but a really good #2 guy. Morrow has the stuff to be an ace and we've all seen him demonstrate that, only time will tell if he can figure out how to be more consistent with it. I'm certainly rooting for him, his 1 hitter against the Rays was one of the most exciting games I've seen lately. I'd love to see more of that.

bljay29
03-20-2012, 01:58 PM
Morrow can be great for 4-5 starts then the next 4-5 he will pitch so badly, i hope he has a break out season but i thought he was primed for a break out last year..

R. Johnson#3
03-20-2012, 04:05 PM
No, he will not be.

Twitchy
03-20-2012, 04:38 PM
It's pretty simple, either Morrow learns to pitch with runners on base or he's not going to be an elite starter. His peripheral stats are great overall but he's fairly worthless with runners on base and it's not a one year thing. He has to change his approach or he's going to be no better than Brett Cecil, which believe it or not is how well he's performed the past two years (in terms of results, anyways).

Cecil - 4.43 ERA between 2010-2011
Morrow - 4.62 ERA between 2010-2011.

He's actually done worse. Ouch.

es0terik
03-20-2012, 06:17 PM
Romero is an OK ace but a really good #2 guy.

*Romero is an OK #2 but a really good #3 guy.

es0terik
03-20-2012, 06:21 PM
Cecil - 4.43 ERA between 2010-2011
Morrow - 4.62 ERA between 2010-2011.

He's actually done worse. Ouch.

I'm actually incredibly surprised that you of all people used a single stat, and ERA at that, to decide which player had been better the past two years... Not even factoring in the fact that Cecil had what seems to have been a career year in 2010 while Morrow had just been converted from a reliever to a starter and then had also just been traded.

Twitchy
03-20-2012, 07:08 PM
I'm actually incredibly surprised that you of all people used a single stat, and ERA at that, to decide which player had been better the past two years... Not even factoring in the fact that Cecil had what seems to have been a career year in 2010 while Morrow had just been converted from a reliever to a starter and then had also just been traded.

Well the point is that saber stats don't reflect Morrow's performance because as I said, despite the awesome peripherals, his inability to pitch with runners on base is why he posts the high ERA.

AKA he sucks with guys on and dominates with nobody on base. So the saber stats are misleading. Until he pitches out of the stretch his ERA is a better indication of his talent.

es0terik
03-20-2012, 09:06 PM
Well the point is that saber stats don't reflect Morrow's performance because as I said, despite the awesome peripherals, his inability to pitch with runners on base is why he posts the high ERA.

AKA he sucks with guys on and dominates with nobody on base. So the saber stats are misleading. Until he pitches out of the stretch his ERA is a better indication of his talent.

I'm not saying that I agreed or disagreed, I was just pointing out my disapproval of using only ERA to determine who's a better player.

Though on-topic, I do believe Morrow is far superior than Cecil. Always has been, always will be.

R. Johnson#3
03-21-2012, 07:07 AM
*Romero is an OK #2 but a really good #3 guy.

Yeah I guess his 1.14 WHIP isn't that good.

Twitchy
03-21-2012, 08:39 AM
I'm not saying that I agreed or disagreed, I was just pointing out my disapproval of using only ERA to determine who's a better player.

Though on-topic, I do believe Morrow is far superior than Cecil. Always has been, always will be.

Most players end up having their ERA trend towards their FIP. But there are exceptions - Ricky Nolasco (4.50 ERA vs 3.83 FIP), Brandon Morrow (4.37 ERA vs 3.85 FIP), Jorge De La Rosa (4.90 ERA vs 4.43 FIP).

So yeah, at this point FIP isn't a very good representation of Morrow's performance. Because as I said, he struggles while pitching from the stretch. That could change this year, and I'm not saying it won't. But if his ERA isn't close to his FIP this year, then yes, ERA will be a much better indicator of his talent going forwards. There are always exceptions, and he might be one of them.

I didn't say ERA was the only stat to use. I just said based on his ERA, which is a better reflection of Morrow's talent given that he doesn't pitch well with guys on base, that he was about as effective as Brett Cecil over the past two years. Obviously I expect Morrow to be better going forward, but it also shows how ineffective Morrow has been the past two years.

mtf
03-21-2012, 12:02 PM
Romero wasn't elite last year but he wasn't bad as far as number 1 starters around the league go.

Well, depends on what teams you're comparing the Jays with. If you're comparing them with contenders, then no, Romero isn't good enough. But if you're comparing him to teams like the Astros or Orioles, then ya he looks amazing.

I really like Romero, and he'd be an excellent #2 or #3 on a true contender. Someone with a higher ceiling just needs to take a step up or Anthopoulos can try to make a move to get someone like Matt Cain.

MrForever
03-21-2012, 12:34 PM
Well, depends on what teams you're comparing the Jays with. If you're comparing them with contenders, then no, Romero isn't good enough. But if you're comparing him to teams like the Astros or Orioles, then ya he looks amazing.

I really like Romero, and he'd be an excellent #2 or #3 on a true contender. Someone with a higher ceiling just needs to take a step up or Anthopoulos can try to make a move to get someone like Matt Cain.

I wonder who San Fran would more willing to part with... Linecum or Cain.

ah nuts
03-21-2012, 12:58 PM
sounds like romero is still improving his stuff.
also valuing romero, one can consider he is a AL east pitcher. What would his ERA be without boston?... which hopefully he will improve on this year.