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rockbottom2010
03-16-2012, 07:45 AM
I could predict the future for the jays will have.

C Travis D'Arnaud
1B Jose Bautista
2B ???????? (unless its Hechavarrhia)
SS Escobar or Hechavarrhia
3B Lawrie
LF Snider
CF Gose
RF Marisnick
DH Thames or Lind

Starting Pitching

Romero
Drabeck
Alvarez
Synnergaurd
Hutchinson

Closer - Santos

I really think they will make a package for a 2B or a SS....maybe even a starting pitcher.

I think Lind, Thames, Rasmus, Morrow, and Arencibia aren't going to be there for the long run.

wamco
03-16-2012, 08:17 AM
about time this thread came out. someone dig up the one from a few years ago for this year

BlueJayFanDan
03-16-2012, 08:38 AM
Why does it feel like we have this thread every couple of months? Hmm. Oh well.
Anyways, as long as we have Marisnick and Lawrie in that lineup, no one else matters. Lawrie + Marisnick = Greater than god.

Dol-Fan
03-16-2012, 08:41 AM
about time this thread came out. someone dig up the one from a few years ago for this year

C - Thigpen
1B - Cooper
2B - Hill
3B - Ahrens
SS - J. Jackson
LF - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Snider

BlueJayFanDan
03-16-2012, 08:42 AM
C - Thigpen
1B - Cooper
2B - Hill
3B - Ahrens
SS - J. Jackson
LF - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Snider

Wow, definite Championship contender right there. Sexy team.

Dol-Fan
03-16-2012, 08:50 AM
Wow, definite Championship contender right there. Sexy team.

:drool:

idrinkpepsi
03-16-2012, 09:10 AM
C - Thigpen
1B - Cooper
2B - Hill
3B - Ahrens
SS - J. Jackson
LF - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Snider

When do we start lining up for the parade?

:drool:

TRIUMPHATOR
03-16-2012, 10:04 AM
C - Thigpen
1B - Cooper
2B - Hill
3B - Ahrens
SS - J. Jackson
LF - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Snider

Wow, what happened to that team? And it just goes to show how far superior our prospects are now. Cooper now isn't even in our top 25 anymore.

TO Rapz
03-16-2012, 10:58 AM
C - Thigpen
1B - Cooper
2B - Hill
3B - Ahrens
SS - J. Jackson
LF - Lind
CF - Wells
RF - Snider

:drool:

Kelly Gruber
03-16-2012, 11:13 AM
Haha exactly, baseball is as hard a sport as any to predict how things will turn out in the future. Best not to even try, let it play out and enjoy the ride.

pebloemer
03-16-2012, 11:39 AM
Wow, what happened to that team? And it just goes to show how far superior our prospects are now. Cooper now isn't even in our top 25 anymore.

I agree to that. But I'd also say it shows how much can change in a couple years.

Sanyo
03-16-2012, 12:06 PM
big difference three years ago when the jays had a bottom 3 farm system. they now have a top three farm system -- how many of those guys besides snider made anyone's top 100 or even 200 list 3 years ago? (referring to ahrens, jackson, thigpen, cooper).

lind has the potential, he is not a 4 hitter though, doesnt mean he's bad -- he's better with having protection behind him and there is nothing wrong with that -- production is production whether he's hitting 3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th, 1st, etc. some guys are meant to be at certain spots of the lineup -- lind is not a cleanup hitter, he is a sweet swinging 3rd or maybe even 6th hitter -- he can hit .300 again if they move him out of cleanup, which could potentially happen once lawrie emerges...

es0terik
03-16-2012, 12:08 PM
Wow, what happened to that team? And it just goes to show how far superior our prospects are now. Cooper now isn't even in our top 25 anymore.

How does it go to show how far superior our prospects are? It goes to show how often prospects bust and how people need to stop overvaluing every Jays player out their ***. Yeah our prospects are much better now, but the fact that Snider is fighting for his life and Lind is worth less than a paper plate has nothing to do with that. It's the fact that the exact way that people are treating guys like Marisnick, Gose and d'Arnaud has godly untouchables right now is the exact thing they did throughout past years with Drabek, Ahrens and J.Jax.

People have to get used to the fact that two years from now, we'll all be laughing at the lists we made now because there is no way that all of these guys pan out. You'd be incredibly lucky to guess half of the roster right. Just look at last year. If in March of last year you asked people to make a future roster, nobody would have had Henderson Alvarez on it, and now many people will.

es0terik
03-16-2012, 12:11 PM
big difference three years ago when the jays had a bottom 3 farm system. they now have a top three farm system -- how many of those guys besides snider made anyone's top 100 or even 200 list?

Off the top of my head, over the last three years, JP, Drabek, Snider and Rasmus were all Top 10 prospects. And different people have major issues with each of the four of them. It goes to show you how hard it is to predict a prospect and that a Top 100 list really doesn't mean much. I mean does anybody really expect Bryce Harper to ever meet the disgustingly infallible expectations people have set for him?

TRIUMPHATOR
03-16-2012, 12:37 PM
How does it go to show how far superior our prospects are? It goes to show how often prospects bust and how people need to stop overvaluing every Jays player out their ***. Yeah our prospects are much better now, but the fact that Snider is fighting for his life and Lind is worth less than a paper plate has nothing to do with that. It's the fact that the exact way that people are treating guys like Marisnick, Gose and d'Arnaud has godly untouchables right now is the exact thing they did throughout past years with Drabek, Ahrens and J.Jax.

People have to get used to the fact that two years from now, we'll all be laughing at the lists we made now because there is no way that all of these guys pan out. You'd be incredibly lucky to guess half of the roster right. Just look at last year. If in March of last year you asked people to make a future roster, nobody would have had Henderson Alvarez on it, and now many people will.

I'm with you with how irrelevant future lists are but it is fun to dream. But you don't really think that this upcoming group will be busts like that prevoius list. There are too many high ceiling guys far all of them to suck.

es0terik
03-16-2012, 12:55 PM
I definitely think there will be a lot of busts but I also think that there will be a number of guys who come out of the blue and become monster prospects. We've already got two guys that came out of nowhere with Alvarez and Carreno. Of course we'll have a few of our top prospects make it too.. I mean everything about Brett Lawrie just screams future success. The way he handles the game, his mechanics, his ability, his ceiling. Unless he gets screwed over by some sort of intangible, Brett Lawrie will be an above average major leaguer for years to come. We WILL have prospects like this that come up. But something like predicting our future rotation or our future outfield, it's next to impossible in a system that has so many of each of those types of prospects.

So I wouldn't say that they'll be busts, the same way I can't say they'll all be successful. I guess in simplest terms: expect the worst and hope for the best. Then whatever happens, it happens.

Farsight
03-16-2012, 06:10 PM
accidental post lol

wamco
03-17-2012, 04:35 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dose-reality-prospect-watchers

A Dose of Reality for Prospect Watchers

by Erik Manning - September 10, 2009


All of the minor league regular seasons are officially over, and it will soon be one of my favorite seasons of the year — prospect evaluation and ranking time. I personally love reading the various scouting reports and rankings; I devour it as much of it as I can stand. Now excuse me while I become a wet blanket.

I think as we look at minor league stats and read scouting reports, if we are not careful we can get rose-colored glasses when it comes to our outlook of the future of these players. The truth is most of these players we find ourselves pulling for simply won’t ever make it.

Victor Wang has done some tremendous research about prospects and their value. In determining their value he had to find the rate of which players bust in each category he divided them into. This is a healthy dose of realism to keep in mind when we’re looking at the any one club’s farm system.

* 10% of top 10 hitting prospects bust.
* 31% of top 10 pitching prospects bust.
* 21% of top 11-25 hitting prospects bust.
* 32% of top 11-25 pitching prospects bust.
* 35% of top 26-50 hitting prospects bust.
* 33% of top 26-50 pitching prospects bust.
* 45% of top 51-75 hitting prospects bust.
* 39% of top 51-75 pitching prospects bust.
* 43% of top 76-100 hitting prospects bust.
* 43% of top 76-100 pitching prospects bust.
* 59% of ‘B grade’ hitting prospects bust.
* 52% of ‘B grade’ pitching prospects bust.
* 83% of ‘C grade’ hitting prospects bust.
* Around 75% of all ‘C grade’ pitching prospects bust.

Top 100 prospects are Baseball America’s. B and C grades are as ranked by prospect wonk John Sickels.

Top ten hitting prospects are just about can’t miss. Not all of them reach the level of stardom, but they seldom fail to bring value to a team. Going on down the line, the rates of attrition obviously get higher and higher. I find the failure rates among top pitchers to be striking, and it’s interesting to see how things even out between hitters and pitchers as you go down the grades.

This isn’t anything really new, but it is something to keep in mind when reading these rankings. Reading some reports you would be almost led to believe that even the majority of C grade hitting or pitching prospects will end up being at least a major league utility players or a middle relievers, but that’s simply not the case.

Feel free to soak up all the prospect hype you can find, but always take it with a grain of salt.

JaysFan87
03-17-2012, 07:05 PM
Off the top of my head, over the last three years, JP, Drabek, Snider and Rasmus were all Top 10 prospects. And different people have major issues with each of the four of them. It goes to show you how hard it is to predict a prospect and that a Top 100 list really doesn't mean much. I mean does anybody really expect Bryce Harper to ever meet the disgustingly infallible expectations people have set for him?

Just for the record, Arencibia and Drabek were never top 10 prospects.

wamco
03-17-2012, 07:18 PM
even john sickels says that rating the farm systems is stupid.

DiPasquale7
03-17-2012, 07:44 PM
C - D'Arnaud
1B - Bautista
2B - Escobar
SS - Hechvarria
3B - Lawrie
RF - Marisnick
CF - Gose
LF - Snider
DH - Arencebia

#1 - Romero
#2 - Morrow
#3 - Alvarez
#4 - Hutchinson
#5 - McGuire

Trade assets to get a stud middle infielder: Lind, Thames, Drabek, Cecil, Rasmus, etc.

wamco
03-17-2012, 08:42 PM
im hoping hech aint a starter

JermanJaysFan
03-17-2012, 09:32 PM
C - D'Arnaud
1B - Bautista
2B - Escobar
SS - Hechvarria
3B - Lawrie
RF - Marisnick
CF - Gose
LF - Snider
DH - Arencebia

#1 - Romero
#2 - Morrow
#3 - Alvarez
#4 - Hutchinson
#5 - McGuire

Trade assets to get a stud middle infielder: Lind, Thames, Drabek, Cecil, Rasmus, etc.
The bolded dude should be in the list with the italicized dudes. Arencibia has by far the most value to this team behind the plate, whether that is catching here or catching for whatever team we trade him to.

im hoping hech aint a starter
I don't really understand this in the context of this thread. I hope he IS a starter, because that presumably means his bat has developed to the point where he can be a starter, doesn't it?

wamco
03-17-2012, 09:56 PM
but he'll never, ever, ever be a 750 ops player

JermanJaysFan
03-17-2012, 10:38 PM
but he'll never, ever, ever be a 750 ops player
He doesn't have to be if his D is as advertised. Alexei Ramirez puts up ~4 WAR seasons as a ~.730 OPS guy. Cliff Pennington was 4 WAR in 2010 with a .687 OPS.

Hell, Alcides Escobar is a 2.2 WAR guy with a .630 OPS.

Farsight
03-17-2012, 11:32 PM
He doesn't have to be if his D is as advertised. Alexei Ramirez puts up ~4 WAR seasons as a ~.730 OPS guy. Cliff Pennington was 4 WAR in 2010 with a .687 OPS.

Hell, Alcides Escobar is a 2.2 WAR guy with a .630 OPS. Currently Hech projects more as Alcides Escobar, as he does not have the power that Ramirez has shown. But Hech will make the majors one day just on defense alone. The issue is whether his bat is good enough to keep him as an everyday starter or utility player as you stated

Twitchy
03-18-2012, 12:56 PM
He doesn't have to be if his D is as advertised. Alexei Ramirez puts up ~4 WAR seasons as a ~.730 OPS guy. Cliff Pennington was 4 WAR in 2010 with a .687 OPS.

Hell, Alcides Escobar is a 2.2 WAR guy with a .630 OPS.

This is one of those times you have to look a little deeper to realize how bad Escobar is. With SS who had 400 PA or more Alcides Escobar ranked 18th in the majors. And that was in a career year for him, offensively (643 OPS).

Alexei Ramirez is a completely different story. He's a league average hitter, and a league average bat that is a plus defender is extremely valuable. Ramirez has a career 94 wRC+ (park and league adjusted, like OPS+ but based on wOBA), whereas Alcides Escobar had 73 in a career year. Ramirez has only had one year below 95, whereas Escobar's best is 73.

Same deal with Pennington. Once you account for park factors, he's just as good a hitter as Ramirez. He's got a career wRC+ of 94.

So while Escobar is between 25-30% below league average in his best years, Ramirez and Pennington are 5-6%. It's not a good comparison.

I'd argue that Hech's glove needs to be better than advertised if he hopes to be a remotely useful player if his bat is in the low 600's (OPS).

JermanJaysFan
03-18-2012, 04:11 PM
This is one of those times you have to look a little deeper to realize how bad Escobar is. With SS who had 400 PA or more Alcides Escobar ranked 18th in the majors. And that was in a career year for him, offensively (643 OPS).

Alexei Ramirez is a completely different story. He's a league average hitter, and a league average bat that is a plus defender is extremely valuable. Ramirez has a career 94 wRC+ (park and league adjusted, like OPS+ but based on wOBA), whereas Alcides Escobar had 73 in a career year. Ramirez has only had one year below 95, whereas Escobar's best is 73.

Same deal with Pennington. Once you account for park factors, he's just as good a hitter as Ramirez. He's got a career wRC+ of 94.

So while Escobar is between 25-30% below league average in his best years, Ramirez and Pennington are 5-6%. It's not a good comparison.

I'd argue that Hech's glove needs to be better than advertised if he hopes to be a remotely useful player if his bat is in the low 600's (OPS).
My point in mentioning Alcides Escobar was just to show an example that a high-calibre defensive shortstop pretty much doesn't even have to bring his bat to the ballpark in order to be at least semi valuable. I'd personally hope for more out of Hech than that.

I agree- unless Hech is legendary defensively, a low .600s OPS isn't going to cut it for us. But I think there is reason to assume he can attain somewhere more along the lines of a Pennington-like line with wRC+ values in the high 80s or something, and maybe a little bit extra defensive value than Pennington. But I guess at this point it boils down to how optimistic each individual poster is about Hech's future developments on offense.

rockbottom2010
03-22-2012, 11:39 AM
jays have all sorts of assets....they really need a 2b soo badly

AA09-?
03-22-2012, 05:00 PM
jays have all sorts of assets....they really need a 2b soo badly

Not right now. They're clearly hoping KJ will bounce back and post a .800 OPS or more.

StealingSigns
03-22-2012, 08:49 PM
jays have all sorts of assets....they really need a 2b soo badly

KJ is certainly no slouch. Explain.

rockbottom2010
03-25-2012, 02:38 PM
KJ is certainly no slouch. Explain.

do u really think KJ is there for the long run...they only picked up his option...either is because hechavarrhia is not ready...or they don't have a legit prospect

mtf
03-25-2012, 03:04 PM
Why does it feel like we have this thread every couple of months?

If by months, you mean days, then I fully agree. It's overkill and just really uninteresting. We all know who the prospects are and who the young big leaguers are.

rockbottom2010
03-26-2012, 06:13 PM
espn has high hopes on the jays present and future...which to me is suprising

Kenny Powders
03-27-2012, 08:15 AM
espn has high hopes on the jays present and future...which to me is suprising

How so?

wamco
03-28-2012, 07:55 AM
perceived espn hate of espn. Rogers prob just bought espn

wamco
03-28-2012, 12:38 PM
hopefully all these question marks can mature swiftly when they get to the bigs to make an immediate impact before Bautista starts to decline. Remember we shouldn't add payroll on free agents until the team is one player away. I haven't checked this theory out but I assume if I go to the angels board they are up in arms about their offseason. Coming off only 86 wins they went out and wasted their non-bottomless pit owner's money on pujols and cj wilson.