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View Full Version : Jays Break Out Player of 2012 is?



bljay29
02-28-2012, 06:18 PM
Who is the 1 or 2 players that might surprise us this year? There is numerous candidates that might surprise like Lind, Snider, Morrow, Cecil.. etc..

My darkhorse pick is Snider, I think with Thames kinda pushin him it might help him focus and work harder..

My other pick would be Morrow, this might be the year he puts it all together for the season instead of showing flashes of it here and there

Jays Claw
02-28-2012, 06:52 PM
I actually think both Drabek and Snider break out this season. We'll see, so let's hope I'm right.

PJ Awesome
02-28-2012, 06:58 PM
Snider and either Drabek/Morrow.

jaysnraptors44
02-28-2012, 07:00 PM
I have this gut feeling that Mike McCoy is going to Break out this year

Krylian
02-28-2012, 07:22 PM
Morrow

AND

Thames

I also think McGowan will make some big strides and set himself up for a real good 2013.

nithanyo
02-28-2012, 07:39 PM
I'm gonna go with Morrow, Drabek and Thames as well

Make or break years for Cecil, Snider and Rasmus.

I have a bad feeling about Romero

JMac4PM
02-28-2012, 07:58 PM
Cecil, Drabek, Wojchiechowski, and Lind.

scottythegreat1
02-28-2012, 08:11 PM
Morrow!!! honourable mention goes to Cecil

Sanyo
02-28-2012, 09:05 PM
If he uses that changeup effectively this year, then Morrow by a long shot -- but if he flounders again he becomes a AJ Burnett in my eyes -- though Morrow in the pen would not be a bad option if he can't get it together this year.

I think Cecil, Drabek, Thames should all have solid years-- Im on the fence with Snider but if they just let him play and let him hit the way he likes and play him everyday, he could break out as well.

Either way this should be a more experienced team with the core all back together --

toronto#1fan
02-28-2012, 09:08 PM
remember this post, thames will become a 280 25-30 hrs batting second in front of bautista, cecil will have a great year, henederson and drabek will have years were all the fans will think they are the future of the rotation. Romero will have an average year 15-10 3.5 era ( I hope i am wrong) and for rasmus and snider i just don't see it in them. Hopefully rasmus proves me wrong and become one of the best centre fiealders in the game. And bullpen will be amongst the best

BlueJaysFan
02-28-2012, 09:55 PM
Cecil

fatkev78
02-28-2012, 10:00 PM
Thames, Snider, Rasmus, Lawrie, Lind, JPA, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez & McGowan.....I wanted to name a couple more, but I wanted to play it covservative for fear of looking like a homer ;-)

Sanyo
02-28-2012, 10:01 PM
Thames, Snider, Rasmus, Lawrie, Lind, JPA, Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez & McGowan.....I wanted to name a couple more, but I wanted to play it covservative for fear of looking like a homer ;-)

Well considering how young the team is, its not conservative at all to think that virtually all of these guys should have somewhat better seasons -- granted a few wont but I think most of them will (barring any injuries).

jackstar
02-28-2012, 10:08 PM
im going to go with Mcgowan and cecil, and im really hoping Snider

aman_13
02-28-2012, 10:47 PM
I like everyones' picks but how about Edwin?

BlueJaysFan
02-28-2012, 10:50 PM
Jeff Mathis

Krylian
02-28-2012, 10:53 PM
Shea Hillenbrand.

henderson56
02-28-2012, 10:57 PM
Really surprised nobody has said Kelly Johnson, Hes my breakout player, I can easily see him having a career year batting in front of Bauts and playing at Rogers for half the year.

wagnall
02-28-2012, 10:57 PM
I like everyones' picks but how about Edwin?


EE is a hope and a prayer he can put 3 good months together.

For me its Thames and Lawrie , I'm going to throw in Cecil in there as well as I really think he worked hard in the off season losing all that weight. Shows dedication and knowing he had to get better to be in the rotation.

With honorable mentions in the do or go away catagory, Johnson, Rasmus, Snider, EE and Lind.
Man thats a lot of players. :)

AA09-?
02-28-2012, 11:20 PM
I'm going to go with Morrow.

AA09-?
02-28-2012, 11:21 PM
Also, Cecil and Drabek

DeRozan10
02-28-2012, 11:39 PM
I'm expecting big things in the lineup from Rasmus & Thames

I'm expecting big things on the mound from Morrow and Santos

Hopething that McGowan has a great year as well.



Really we have a ton of guys that could either be elite players or duds or something in between this year .

scaramantula
02-29-2012, 12:03 AM
alot of people seem to be really high on thames, i don't see it, someone care to explain?
my pick goes to morrow, also EE will have his comeback, i also think lind may have a good year.
And then theres McGowan, hoping he does well it would be such an awesome story if he makes the rotation and performs well

Sanyo
02-29-2012, 02:06 AM
alot of people seem to be really high on thames, i don't see it, someone care to explain?
my pick goes to morrow, also EE will have his comeback, i also think lind may have a good year.
And then theres McGowan, hoping he does well it would be such an awesome story if he makes the rotation and performs well

Thames has always been a very good hitter -- check out his college and minor league stats -- he's big, powerful, can swat you homers but also has a sweet enough swing to get extra base hits. No one is going to confuse Thames in the outfield for Ken Griffey but he would make a perfect DH for the Jays...

Sanyo
02-29-2012, 02:10 AM
Speaking of Thames here's a good article from Sportsnet on him -- talks about his workout regime during the off-season, shorting his swing and working on his throwing arm (among other topics).

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/02/28/davidi_jays_thames_feature/

DeRozan10
02-29-2012, 02:50 AM
alot of people seem to be really high on thames, i don't see it, someone care to explain?
my pick goes to morrow, also EE will have his comeback, i also think lind may have a good year.
And then theres McGowan, hoping he does well it would be such an awesome story if he makes the rotation and performs well

Thames has hit well everywhere he has been.

He put fairly decent numbers last year in his first taste of major league ball.

He seems to have a fantastic attitude and a gritty approach to the game.

It sounds as if he really dedicated himself this off season and put in the time to become a better all around player.

I am definately expecting big things from him this year. Hope he plays well!

Ragin' Cajun
02-29-2012, 10:06 AM
I'm going with Lawrie and Alvarez. I am really hoping that Rasmus can have a solid year for us.

lexecutioner
02-29-2012, 10:06 AM
im gonna nominate Henderson Alvarez on this one..

watching him last year he came out and didnt get easily rattled. Pitched very well and he is just gonna improve more. ill say 10+ win with 3.50 ish ERA

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 10:07 AM
I really like Thames, but he's lacking the on base ability needed to be a very good hitter in this league.

Canadian hemi
02-29-2012, 10:09 AM
I will pick, Lind!! I'm hoping his gets an BA of 280 and 30 Hr's!!! But I wouldn't be surprised if it's 180 hahaha.

Anyway..here's hoping

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 10:10 AM
I will pick, Lind!! I'm hoping his gets an BA of 280 and 30 Hr's!!! But I wouldn't be surprised if it's 180 hahaha.

Anyway..here's hoping

He could bat .180, and I'd be fine with that. If he walks 120 times.LOL

pebloemer
02-29-2012, 10:29 AM
Speaking of Thames here's a good article from Sportsnet on him -- talks about his workout regime during the off-season, shorting his swing and working on his throwing arm (among other topics).

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2012/02/28/davidi_jays_thames_feature/

Thanks for posting that. It definitely was a very good read. Nice to see so much optimism surrounding our players.

rubeus
02-29-2012, 11:09 AM
I see Lind as much improved from the last 2 years.
I'd say 30 HR's and at least .265 avg with at least 50 walks.

I think McGowan and Drabek as stepping it up
if they get the chance.

I see Snider as grabbing a role.

Kelly Johnson and Rasmus, have to improve over the last year.

But I see possible steps backward for Lawrie, Romero,

town123
02-29-2012, 11:29 AM
Wow... we can only pick 1 or 2 players.

Stick - Carnation Milk

Hurler - McG



Darkhorse - David Cooper

scaramantula
02-29-2012, 11:39 AM
I see Lind as much improved from the last 2 years.
I'd say 30 HR's and at least .265 avg with at least 50 walks.

I think McGowan and Drabek as stepping it up
if they get the chance.

I see Snider as grabbing a role.

Kelly Johnson and Rasmus, have to improve over the last year.

But I see possible steps backward for Lawrie, Romero,

the only step back Romero is going to have is that hes not going to be the undisputed number 1 anymore. kelly johnson i'm not really worried about, worst case scenario hes just a stop gap till hech is ready to play

Ragin' Cajun
02-29-2012, 12:49 PM
the only step back Romero is going to have is that hes not going to be the undisputed number 1 anymore. kelly johnson i'm not really worried about, worst case scenario hes just a stop gap till hech is ready to play

What is a realistic time for Hechavaria to come in? 1 year 2 years?

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 12:54 PM
the only step back Romero is going to have is that hes not going to be the undisputed number 1 anymore. kelly johnson i'm not really worried about, worst case scenario hes just a stop gap till hech is ready to play

Hech won't be starting at 2B and most likely will never be full time SS with the Jays.

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 12:59 PM
I see Lind as much improved from the last 2 years.
I'd say 30 HR's and at least .265 avg with at least 50 walks.

I think McGowan and Drabek as stepping it up
if they get the chance.

I see Snider as grabbing a role.

Kelly Johnson and Rasmus, have to improve over the last year.

But I see possible steps backward for Lawrie, Romero,

This will be the biiiig challenge for him.

scaramantula
02-29-2012, 01:16 PM
Hech won't be starting at 2B and most likely will never be full time SS with the Jays.

hes not gonna be second base escobar is, and its shortstop, offense isnt a huge part of the position, if he can learn to be decent at the plate and take some walks he could be a good fit at the bottom of the order

scaramantula
02-29-2012, 01:18 PM
What is a realistic time for Hechavaria to come in? 1 year 2 years?

personally i would like to see him as a september call up see what he can do, and assess him from there. maybe have him splitting time at ss and second next year

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 01:24 PM
hes not gonna be second base escobar is, and its shortstop, offense isnt a huge part of the position, if he can learn to be decent at the plate and take some walks he could be a good fit at the bottom of the order

I highly doubt that Yunel will be moved to 2B, he's an elite 2-way SS. As for Hech, he posted a .622 OPS in AA. He probably couldn't hit any better than JMAC at this point.

rapsjaysfan88
02-29-2012, 01:44 PM
your not winning in the al east with a ss who will bat 200 you need an all star type talent at every position. not one dimensional players.

scaramantula
02-29-2012, 01:48 PM
I highly doubt that Yunel will be moved to 2B, he's an elite 2-way SS. As for Hech, he posted a .622 OPS in AA. He probably couldn't hit any better than JMAC at this point.

well its a good thing hes not gonna be in the majors yet. hes still really young give him more time to develop, also escobar is aging there will be a time when he doesn't have the same range as he does now, at which point we move him to second. and finally his defense isn't that great, we would not lose all that much moving him to 2nd

scaramantula
02-29-2012, 01:51 PM
your not winning in the al east with a ss who will bat 200 you need an all star type talent at every position. not one dimensional players.

i love how everyone just assumes hes going to be terrible before he even plays. also the yankees haven't had ss who puts up all star numbers in like 6 years, also bostons had scutero the last few years, also not an all star.

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 01:54 PM
i love how everyone just assumes hes going to be terrible before he even plays. also the yankees haven't had ss who puts up all star numbers in like 6 years, also bostons had scutero the last few years, also not an all star.

That's fine, but if you were to replace KJ with Hech the offense would take a definite hit.

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 01:55 PM
well its a good thing hes not gonna be in the majors yet. hes still really young give him more time to develop, also escobar is aging there will be a time when he doesn't have the same range as he does now, at which point we move him to second. and finally his defense isn't that great, we would not lose all that much moving him to 2nd

He's quickly running out of time under his current contract.

scaramantula
02-29-2012, 02:07 PM
He's quickly running out of time under his current contract.

hes definitively been good enough to get an extension, also johnson hasn't shown anything yet, he could be worse than last year for all we know, the tranistion to the al east for the nl west is a pretty intense one

miller74
02-29-2012, 02:08 PM
Omar Visquel or Mike Mccoy

Bombtista
02-29-2012, 02:25 PM
Omar Visquel or Mike Mccoy

McCoy does have above average speed which is sometimes useful off the bench. After Rajai Davis there is not much for us to rely on if we leave him in AAA.

I hope Visquel makes it and can be productive in a more meaningful way

Sanyo
02-29-2012, 02:46 PM
What I dont get is why everyone is predicting regression for Romero? Granted he had a very good year last year, but I think Romero is panning into being that ace. Yes some of his numbers can be somewhat worse but if other pitchers can pick it up (and they should) any potential regression from Romero (which I dont see) should be offset by the other guys in the rotation...

mtf
02-29-2012, 02:52 PM
I don't wanna go ahead and predict everyone who had bad or mediocre seasons last year (Morrow, Lind, Johnson, Rasmus, Cecil, Thames, Encarnacion, Drabek, Snider) because, let's be honest, that's what everyone is going to do in this thread. :p Instead I'll go with someone I'd like to see get their first shot and hopefully make the most of it; Drew Hutchison.

Canadian hemi
02-29-2012, 04:21 PM
I orginally said Lind, as my break out player, but I want to change that (or maybe add)

I say J.P. ARENCIBIA will show everyone (including all the haters) that he is someone to look out for in our lineup!!

bljay29
02-29-2012, 06:54 PM
I orginally said Lind, as my break out player, but I want to change that (or maybe add)

I say J.P. ARENCIBIA will show everyone (including all the haters) that he is someone to look out for in our lineup!!


I agree, everyone seems to want to run JPA out of town already, no idea why though, he has improved his defense and yes his BA wasn't great but he is a catcher out side of a few most catchers never hit for a great avg.. not to mention if Lind stinks it up at the plate again i could see JPA making the move there and D' arnaud being moved to the major's sooner then thought

nithanyo
02-29-2012, 07:32 PM
I love JPA. He's the first homegrown catcher in a while to make an impact. I guess people are impatient with him because of the depth we have at that position. He seems like the glue keeping the pitchers and hitters together. In most clubhouses the batters and pitchers are two different cliques

Plus he has the potential for 25+ home runs consistently

wamco
02-29-2012, 10:15 PM
and a 300 obp with awful defense. I don't get the love affair.

wamco
02-29-2012, 10:20 PM
i love how everyone just assumes hes going to be terrible before he even plays. also the yankees haven't had ss who puts up all star numbers in like 6 years, also bostons had scutero the last few years, also not an all star.

they are basing on his "play" in AA.


ops past five years. jeter vs yunel escobar

840 vs 837
771 vs 766
871 vs 812
710 vs 655
743 vs 782

the_jon
02-29-2012, 10:44 PM
Bautista!

JaysFan87
02-29-2012, 10:52 PM
I agree, everyone seems to want to run JPA out of town already, no idea why though, he has improved his defense and yes his BA wasn't great but he is a catcher out side of a few most catchers never hit for a great avg.. not to mention if Lind stinks it up at the plate again i could see JPA making the move there and D' arnaud being moved to the major's sooner then thought

No one is looking to run him out of town (at least not me) but he needs to improve on pretty much every facet of the game next year. his power is good but everything else needs to improve. Of the 19 Catcher who had at least 400 Ab last year in the MLB he was 18th in OBP. Just ahead of Olivo and right behind Suzuki. Not the greatest company. I dont care if he hit 23 HR, he was an Out machine last year. Whats worse he also wasnt even producing productive outs (that value is also capped becasue its not like he can beat out DP or anything like that). He led the same group of catchers in SO5 at a disgusting 27%. And even with all those HR's his SLG5 was 9th among those 18 catchers. Im sorry but if that is the same level of prosecution that he provides next year then you have to at least see what D'Arnaud can do at some point next year (barring injury to him).

StealingSigns
02-29-2012, 10:54 PM
and a 300 obp with awful defense. I don't get the love affair.

:nod:

bljay29
03-01-2012, 12:31 PM
and a 300 obp with awful defense. I don't get the love affair.

his defense wasn't as awful as 1 thinks, it takes a lot to catch.. your in control of every pitch, its not like every pitch in the dirt bounces the same way, if the pitchers don't hold runners very well it doesn't matter how great your arm is because they are getting huge jumps.. Plus on top of that you have to recall the scouting report on the hitter at the plate, know what your pitcher is throwing good that day and adjust accordingly.. It is a lot to digest in a short time.. Now all that said he does need to improve but he was a rookie so from me he gets some slack.. As far as his hitting it will improve because all he was concentrating on was his defense and getting to know the pitchers..

darth helmet
03-01-2012, 01:26 PM
My vote goes to McGowen. I've been hearing he's throwing some incredible stuff so far this spring.

Cooshman
03-01-2012, 02:11 PM
Is it me or does McGowan look like he has a serious spare tire around that waste!?

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/article/1138587--griffin-blue-jays-pitcher-dustin-mcgowan-feels-like-a-rookie

ShortsideShot14
03-01-2012, 02:47 PM
Lind will return to 09 form. At least .300 30Hr, 100 RBI. Book it

AA09-?
03-01-2012, 02:51 PM
Lind will return to 09 form. At least .300 30Hr, 100 RBI. Book it

:ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno::ohno:

Cooshman
03-01-2012, 03:10 PM
Lind will return to 09 form. At least .300 30Hr, 100 RBI. Book it

No reason why he can't...I think he'll come very close to the numbers you listed above.

Canadian hemi
03-01-2012, 04:16 PM
My vote goes to McGowen. I've been hearing he's throwing some incredible stuff so far this spring.

Yeah I heard that aswell!!!

He's been on fire!!!

LuckyLuke2
03-01-2012, 04:54 PM
I would have to say Colby Rasmus.

He has all the potential in the world, got a deal to a more relaxed environment, and is our go to CF. He is young and can hit the **** out of the ball. I hope that he is our break out player of the year.


Other votes would probably go to Cecil, Snider, McGowan. Just because I want those three to play well and hope they do.

nithanyo
03-01-2012, 08:02 PM
Lind apparently has on and off back issues. those are never good until fixed

LuckyLuke2
03-01-2012, 08:50 PM
Lind apparently has on and off back issues. those are never good until fixed

Yeah that's never a good thing.

He's been set back a few times during the season because of that... hope it doesn't become an issue.

scaramantula
03-01-2012, 09:09 PM
they are basing on his "play" in AA.


ops past five years. jeter vs yunel escobar

840 vs 837
771 vs 766
871 vs 812
710 vs 655
743 vs 782

i'm not sure the point your trying to make, but aa numbers don't mean a thing in the majors, and the numbers you posted just proved my point that you din't need an all star at shortstop, yunel not an all star neither is jeter. and also how why would yunel changing to second affect (effect?) his offensive numbers.

Finally i'm changing my answer, breakout player this year hechavarria
:)

scaramantula
03-01-2012, 09:10 PM
Is it me or does McGowan look like he has a serious spare tire around that waste!?

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/article/1138587--griffin-blue-jays-pitcher-dustin-mcgowan-feels-like-a-rookie

he's modeling himself after C.C. lol

wamco
03-01-2012, 10:17 PM
his defense wasn't as awful as 1 thinks, it takes a lot to catch.. your in control of every pitch, its not like every pitch in the dirt bounces the same way, if the pitchers don't hold runners very well it doesn't matter how great your arm is because they are getting huge jumps.. Plus on top of that you have to recall the scouting report on the hitter at the plate, know what your pitcher is throwing good that day and adjust accordingly.. It is a lot to digest in a short time.. Now all that said he does need to improve but he was a rookie so from me he gets some slack.. As far as his hitting it will improve because all he was concentrating on was his defense and getting to know the pitchers..

Every catcher does what you describe and defensive metrics put him worst or near worst in mlb last year. Rest of the post was just simply excuses. He hit EXACTLY how he was expected to.

wamco
03-01-2012, 10:20 PM
i'm not sure the point your trying to make, but aa numbers don't mean a thing in the majors, and the numbers you posted just proved my point that you din't need an all star at shortstop, yunel not an all star neither is jeter. and also how why would yunel changing to second affect (effect?) his offensive numbers.

Finally i'm changing my answer, breakout player this year hechavarria
:)


Um, ya, if you suck in AA, pretty sure you are going to suck in mlb, pretty easy concept. People think Yunel is something special and that jeter is completely useless even though the numbers haven't supported that. And Yunel's numbers would be worse as a 2bman, I guess I don't understand the question.

bljay29
03-01-2012, 11:20 PM
Every catcher does what you describe and defensive metrics put him worst or near worst in mlb last year. Rest of the post was just simply excuses. He hit EXACTLY how he was expected to.


the metrics aren't always right, he wasn't good the 1st half of the season after that he started to pick it up and became a decent defensive catcher.. Not only that he started calling a better game as well, with learning from Molina and now getting to learn from Mathis his defense will become avg at least.. Catchers aren't usually great hitters cause catching takes a huge toll on the body, but in saying that that i expect at least a .330-.350 ob this year from him

wamco
03-01-2012, 11:55 PM
at least? I expect at least 400.. but that is slugging pct.

You are being naive in your assessment my friend. I want him to succeed as much as the next guy, but his shortcomings are well documented and well deserved.

Canadian hemi
03-02-2012, 09:21 AM
and a 300 obp with awful defense. I don't get the love affair.

Well I for one will not give up on J.P. ARENCIBIA. As it's will only be his 2nd full year in the show!!!

I think it would be prudent to give him at least two years, to improve jeepers!! :eyebrow:

It was his 1st real season, it seems like everyone wants him to be perfect in every stat, in the 1st year...man that would be tough for any other position, let a lone a catcher.

I know we have some good catchers comming up...but guys...you need to give him some at bats..and chances to improve, as apposed to slaughter his defence, ops...sluging...etc etc.....

scaramantula
03-02-2012, 11:41 AM
Um, ya, if you suck in AA, pretty sure you are going to suck in mlb, pretty easy concept. People think Yunel is something special and that jeter is completely useless even though the numbers haven't supported that. And Yunel's numbers would be worse as a 2bman, I guess I don't understand the question.

why would his numbers get worse as a second baseman? that makes no sense, his defense might change but thats not what were talking about. lots of players struggle in there frst year in a league, and some take to the mlb game easier than others you can't just say he's going to suck because he had one bad year.

the reason for the jeter hate, is because hes old and getting slow, he's not useless but hes a shadow of his former self.

also i'm all for JPA haing a great year, than we could trade D'arnaud for a key piece that we will surely need by this time next year

2009mvp
03-02-2012, 01:32 PM
^^He means relative to other second baseman. There are few SSs in the league who can reach base as well as Escobar, shift him to second and all of a sudden he's the 4th strongest second baseman in his own division.

mkcavy
03-02-2012, 02:30 PM
Alverez. 14 wins, 3.10 ERA.

LuckyLuke2
03-02-2012, 02:39 PM
Alverez. 14 wins, 3.10 ERA.

I don't know about that... haha that's asking a lot from a guy who only had 5-6 starts last year.

Either way, I like Alvarez a lot and I have faith in him.

LuckyLuke2
03-02-2012, 02:40 PM
My bad he had 10 starts I thought it was less.

Rochesta
03-04-2012, 10:45 PM
My vote goes for Drabek. I think he improves his control and puts up an ERA in the low 4 range.

es0terik
03-04-2012, 11:49 PM
Half the Jays team is serious breakout candidates. I think I would put the value in each of their breakouts in this order:

1) Morrow
2) Drabek
3) Rasmus
4) Johnson
5) Snider
6) Lind
7) Cecil
8) Thames
9) Arencibia
10) Encarnacion

I'm assuming that Lawrie and Alvarez hopefully stay on their current track (as if they do, they aren't really considered breakout candidates since they technically broke out last year). If I was to include those two, I'd have Lawrie ranked second behind Morrow and have Alvarez ranked fifth after Johnson.

If all 10 (or 12) of the above players broke out in 2012 and reached their ceilings, that is how I would rank their value to our team.

Morrow and Drabek both have ace potential, Rasmus, Johnson and Lawrie all have 6-7 WAR potential, Alvarez has the potential to become a poor man's King Felix if he can perfectly develop that change-up, Snider and Lind have 5+ WAR potential, Cecil could be a great 3rd starter, and Thames, Arencibia and Encarnacion can all be very valuable support pieces. Of course we'd be lucky to even have a third of these guys become the best they can be, and even that is a long shot.

es0terik
03-04-2012, 11:57 PM
Oh and I forgot about Dustin McGowan, I'd have him in there above Lind.

ILDD
03-05-2012, 10:09 AM
Half the Jays team is serious breakout candidates. I think I would put the value in each of their breakouts in this order:

1) Morrow
2) Drabek
3) Rasmus
4) Johnson
5) Snider
6) Lind
7) Cecil
8) Thames
9) Arencibia
10) Encarnacion

You're right, most of these could have great years but would you say that Rasmus, Lind and Johnson could have breakout years?

They have already had their breakout year, now they just hav to recover from a subsequent slump.


For me, Morrow, Drabek & Snider are the real candidates

es0terik
03-05-2012, 06:22 PM
I use the term 'breakout' very loosely. Rasmus, Lind and Johnson would be breaking out of there slumps and breaking into relevancy. They broke out onto the scene a few years ago but nobody really knows or can truly believe that they are as good as their best seasons. Right now, all three of them look like one trick ponies and that's what they have to break out from. The same goes for Cecil and on some level, Encarnacion.

Krylian
03-05-2012, 06:28 PM
Breakout vs. Comeback years.

2009mvp
03-05-2012, 06:31 PM
I can buy that with Lind and to an extend Rasmus, but KJ's a career .260/.343/.441 hitter. That's not a guy that needs to break out, that's a guy that's already established himself as an above average big leaguer.

Farsight
03-05-2012, 07:10 PM
the metrics aren't always right, he wasn't good the 1st half of the season after that he started to pick it up and became a decent defensive catcher.. Not only that he started calling a better game as well, with learning from Molina and now getting to learn from Mathis his defense will become avg at least.. Catchers aren't usually great hitters cause catching takes a huge toll on the body, but in saying that that i expect at least a .330-.350 ob this year from him I dont get why people see Mathis as a good defensive catcher. If you look throughout his career, he has been always about average. Mike Scioscia had a love affair with him for some reason and was blinded, and never let Napoli play. I dont know how much Mathis would even help.

With that being said, a 30-50 OBP spike is a lot to ask for. He had a 360 OBP is one of the most hitter friendly parks in the minors. For him to jump that high this year or in his career hes going to have to be either extremely lucky OR learn how to take more walks and not strike out at such a high clip. At best this year he can reach 330 if he has the same approach, and thats pushing it. If he approaches 350+ he would have to have a completely different approach offensively or a change in his swing mechanics.

craigerlee
03-05-2012, 07:17 PM
I dont get why people see Mathis as a good defensive catcher. If you look throughout his career, he has been always about average. Mike Scioscia had a love affair with him for some reason and was blinded, and never let Napoli playing. I dont know how much Mathis would even help.

With that being said, a 30-50 OBP spike is a lot to ask for. He had a 360 OBP is one of the most hitter friendly parks in the minors. For him to jump that high this year or in his career hes going to have to be either extremely lucky OR learn how to take more walks and not strike out at such a high clip. At best this year he can reach 330 if he has the same approach, and thats pushing it. If he approaches 350+ he would have to have a completely different approach offensively or a change in his swing mechanics.

I do believe somewhat Mathis is a good game caller and receiver, and hopefully he can help JPA with that aspect. But ya he's grossly overrated defensively and probably the worst offensive player in the game.

Farsight
03-05-2012, 07:18 PM
Lind will return to 09 form. At least .300 30Hr, 100 RBI. Book it 30 home runs and 100 RBI's is not the issue with Lind, as 100 RBI's are easy when you have Escobar, and Bautista infront of you on base. The issue with Lind is his ability to get on base (the same issue plaguing JPA). Moreover, you have Lind who puts up below average numbers for a first basemen, which is the highest producing offensive position. To add on to that, Lind is an average first basemen defensively at best. Can Lind get back to his 09 numbers? maybe, i think it will be hard, but if that was the case he would be an above average first basemen and we would fill a hole in, in a position of weakness. In a few years if our outfielders pan out (Snider, Thames, Rasmus, Gose, Marisnick), you will see Bautista move to 1b

Big Hurt
03-06-2012, 10:57 AM
30 home runs and 100 RBI's is not the issue with Lind, as 100 RBI's are easy when you have Escobar, and Bautista infront of you on base. The issue with Lind is his ability to get on base (the same issue plaguing JPA). Moreover, you have Lind who puts up below average numbers for a first basemen, which is the highest producing offensive position. To add on to that, Lind is an average first basemen defensively at best. Can Lind get back to his 09 numbers? maybe, i think it will be hard, but if that was the case he would be an above average first basemen and we would fill a hole in, in a position of weakness. In a few years if our outfielders pan out (Snider, Thames, Rasmus, Gose, Marisnick), you will see Bautista move to 1b

100 RBI no problem.....only 17 players in MLB had 100 RBI last season.
I think it will be a problem!

ChongInc.
03-07-2012, 03:11 AM
Edwin, Colby, And JPA.
Hopefully Lind.

bartron_44
03-07-2012, 09:40 AM
100 RBI no problem.....only 17 players in MLB had 100 RBI last season.
I think it will be a problem!

If Lind gets to stay in the 4 hole for the entire year, I could see him getting 100 RBI's....(He knocked in 87 last year when he was awful for half of the season)

If he doesn't miss any time I could see him hitting 30 HR's again too....I don't see him hitting over .300 though as he only hit .305 in 2009. I would be happy if he hit .280 and walked at least 60 times though. He only has 70 walks combined over the last 2 seasons....He needs to trust the guy behind him can drive in runs too, and see some more pitches.

es0terik
03-09-2012, 03:23 AM
If Lind gets to stay in the 4 hole for the entire year, I could see him getting 100 RBI's....(He knocked in 87 last year when he was awful for half of the season)

If he doesn't miss any time I could see him hitting 30 HR's again too....I don't see him hitting over .300 though as he only hit .305 in 2009. I would be happy if he hit .280 and walked at least 60 times though. He only has 70 walks combined over the last 2 seasons....He needs to trust the guy behind him can drive in runs too, and see some more pitches.

That is literally the only thing he needs to do. If he can learn to take a pitch like he used to, he's automatically an above average first baseman. Which still isn't saying a lot but it's a huge improvement over what he is now.

jaysfan4ever
03-14-2012, 09:31 PM
My vote goes to Henderson Alvarez, the more I research on this guy, the more I love him. People might say that he already broke out, but 10 starts as a pitcher proves nothing. I'm gonna say that Alvarez replicates last year's numbers and shows that he belongs for real as our #3 starter over 24 starts.

Alvarez's pitching style reminds me a LOT of Roy Halladay. The movement he gets on both his fastballs along with the command are just RIDICULOUS. And the changeup is already solid as well. Alvarez is really, just a decent slider away from becoming the next Halladay. Alvarez managed a 3.38 xFIP last year without a legitimate breaking-ball.


Alverez. 14 wins, 3.10 ERA.

That's a pretty serious prediction, but if Alvarez gets that slider working I can definitely see it.

DVS
03-14-2012, 09:47 PM
Jose Canseco


On a serious note, would like to see Alverez do well this year, become our solid #3 starter for next year. Lawrie as the offensive player. Want to see him tear the cover off the ball, like Evan Longoria did his break out year.

DwayneMVPwade
03-14-2012, 10:37 PM
I say Snider