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StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 12:34 AM
It's that time of year again. The lists from the major evaluators are out, but are they right? :D

Here is how the Blue Jays forum ranked the prospects last year:

1. Kyle Drabek
2. Brett Lawrie
3. Zach Stewart
4. J.P. Arencibia
5. Travis d’Arnaud
6. Anthony Gose
7. Deck McGuire
8. Adeiny Hechavarria
9. Aaron Sanchez
10. Carlos Perez
11. Eric Thames
12. Jake Marisnick
13. Asher Wojciechowski
14. Henderson Alvarez
15. Chad Jenkins
16. Darin Mastroianni
17. Noah Syndergaard
18. Adonis Cardona
19. Dickie Joe Thon
20. AJ Jimenez

I don't think this first poll is going to be particularly close (just like last year when Drabek ran away with it), but lets get the formality out of the way, so we can move on and rank the rest.

Who is the Blue Jays #1 prospect?

bomber0104
02-10-2012, 12:43 AM
Nice... loved the idea last year

a lot of things have changed in 12 months. Just a few things

Drabek struggling and losing his shine
Lawrie turning into the best rookie in baseball
Stewart traded
Molina and Huch jumping out of nowhere
Alvarez big rebound (i was a huge believer and mentioned him a few times)
Syndergaard and Nicolino's quick development
Guys like Hech, Perez and Woj dropping down

Haha.. just realized we had Mastorianni at 16, shows how much further we've come even in those few months

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 12:46 AM
Nice... loved the idea last year

a lot of things have changed in 12 months. Just a few things

Drabek struggling and losing his shine
Lawrie turning into the best rookie in baseball
Stewart traded
Molina and Huch jumping out of nowhere
Alvarez big rebound (i was a huge believer and mentioned him a few times)
Syndergaard and Nicolino's quick development
Guys like Hech, Perez and Woj dropping down

Haha.. just realized we had Mastorianni at 16, shows how much further we've become even in those few months

We even debated whether to include him as a prospect last year during the rankings, as I recall.

Dol-Fan
02-10-2012, 12:48 AM
Nice...looking forward to how this turns out. Does the Jays board prefer Gose or Marisnick? We shall soon see...

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 12:49 AM
1. Kyle Drabek
2. Brett Lawrie
3. Zach Stewart
4. J.P. Arencibia
5. Travis d’Arnaud
6. Anthony Gose
7. Deck McGuire
8. Adeiny Hechavarria
9. Aaron Sanchez
10. Carlos Perez
11. Eric Thames
12. Jake Marisnick
13. Asher Wojciechowski
14. Henderson Alvarez
15. Chad Jenkins
16. Darin Mastroianni
17. Noah Syndergaard
18. Adonis Cardona
19. Dickie Joe Thon
20. AJ Jimenez

Well besides an obvious disaster to the start of Drabek's career (which Im confident he'll bounce back from), that list still looks solid overall, Lawrie and Drabek were interchangeable anyways, Lawrie definitely played up to his hype. Stewart is gone. The only one to me that regressed is Carlos Perez as he's more mid to bottom teens for me now.

But guys like Syndergaard and Marisnick have shot up the rankings. No guys like Hutch or Nicolino on the list. Just a loaded farm, tons of quality like Norris, Dean and Anderson added. This list will look even more impressive after next year, Im going on a limb to say Jays will be the #1 farm in 2013.

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 12:51 AM
1. Kyle Drabek
2. Brett Lawrie
3. Zach Stewart
4. J.P. Arencibia
5. Travis d’Arnaud
6. Anthony Gose
7. Deck McGuire
8. Adeiny Hechavarria
9. Aaron Sanchez
10. Carlos Perez
11. Eric Thames
12. Jake Marisnick
13. Asher Wojciechowski
14. Henderson Alvarez
15. Chad Jenkins
16. Darin Mastroianni
17. Noah Syndergaard
18. Adonis Cardona
19. Dickie Joe Thon
20. AJ Jimenez

Well besides an obvious disaster to the start of Drabek's career (which Im confident he'll bounce back from), that list still looks solid overall, Lawrie and Drabek were interchangeable anyways, Lawrie definitely played up to his hype. Stewart is gone. The only one to me that regressed is Carlos Perez as he's more mid to bottom teens for me now.

But guys like Syndergaard and Marisnick have shot up the rankings. No guys like Hutch or Nicolino on the list. Just a loaded farm, tons of quality like Norris, Dean and Anderson added. This list will look even more impressive after next year, Im going on a limp to say Jays will be the #1 farm in 2013.

They were options last year, they just didn't receive enough votes.

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 12:55 AM
Oh yeah, I should probably explain for those that weren't around last year for this.

Each poll will be posted for 48 hours, even if someone is running away with it. We will be ranking the prospects 1-20. This should generate some good discussion leading up to spring training. I know there was some pretty passionate debate in the later rankings: I for one campaigned for Kellen Sweeney lol

bomber0104
02-10-2012, 01:01 AM
Oh yeah, I should probably explain for those that weren't around last year for this.

Each poll will be posted for 48 hours, even if someone is running away with it. We will be ranking the prospects 1-20. This should generate some good discussion leading up to spring training. I know there was some pretty passionate debate in the later rankings: I for one campaigned for Kellen Sweeney lol

gonna be that much tougher this year.. we could even go to top 25 (and make the last 5 last 24 hrs)

bomber0104
02-10-2012, 01:02 AM
As for the #1 this year... this should be a no contest. D'Arnaud is easily our best prospect in terms of production and proximity to the majors

Krylian
02-10-2012, 01:06 AM
d'Arnaud!

Next!!!!

phillipmike
02-10-2012, 01:07 AM
From 2 to 20 is going to be all over the place.

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 01:12 AM
d'Arnaud!

Next!!!!

haha I know, it's tempting. I want to give this thread some time to breathe though: there are some posters who have been bugging me to do this again for weeks, who would kill me if I didn't give them a chance to have their say lol

Farsight
02-10-2012, 01:29 AM
as much as i love Marisnick as a prospect, this is no brainer

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 01:51 AM
How about we take out D'Arnaud and then see....

Though D'Arnaud reminds me of the pattern Lind has gone through the last few years with the bat-- awesome 2008 (LInd awesome 2009) -- poor offensive seasons for 2 years (09 and 10 with D'Arnaud) and then a break out again for D'Arnaud based on what he showed earlier on in his career....this is what I'm also banking on with Lind hopefully in 2012...hoping...crossing my fingers...

2009mvp
02-10-2012, 01:52 AM
Lol who's the contrarian?

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 01:53 AM
For what its worth I went with Dan Norris, this guy will be a beast and within top 3 next year and top 1 in two years. 2015 he'll be up and by 2017 he will be the ace of the staff...this could also potentially apply to Syndergaard as well..

phillipmike
02-10-2012, 02:03 AM
Not sure if there is a limit of options you can put but this may have to go to 25...

There are some prospects that i would take over some that are listed.

A.J. Jimenez
Kevin Comer
Marcus Knecht
Griffin Murphy

Though i am not criticizing - good job starting this.

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 02:08 AM
The Jays have the best pitching prospects in baseball in terms of depth bar none -- dare I say if Syndergaard, Norris and Nicolino progress, they'd probably even have a top 2 or 3 in terms of top end pitching prospects in baseball, right up there with the Rays and DBacks -- just amazing how AA has transformed the farm, never gets enough credit cause of the ****** Darvish and Fielder debacle...

bomber0104
02-10-2012, 02:14 AM
Not sure if there is a limit of options you can put but this may have to go to 25...

There are some prospects that i would take over some that are listed.

A.J. Jimenez
Kevin Comer
Marcus Knecht
Griffin Murphy

Though i am not criticizing - good job starting this.

yeah i was gonna mention the same thing but until those guys come into play, its no bid deal. In fact i wouldn't mind taking out some of the guys that have no chance at being this high so we don't have the odd person voting for them just for fun (not that i see that happening in our rational forum)

phillipmike
02-10-2012, 02:22 AM
For what its worth I went with Dan Norris, this guy will be a beast and within top 3 next year and top 1 in two years. 2015 he'll be up and by 2017 he will be the ace of the staff...this could also potentially apply to Syndergaard as well..

I think Norris' ceiling is huge and is right up their with Syndergaard as our best pitchers. But i cant pick a guy who is likely 3-5 years away from the MLB as our top prospect. So much can happen from until he makes it to the MLB (and that is if he makes the MLB).

Norris is probably our best arm in the system but its really hard to project that when you have MLB ready prospects who are near the top in the MLB. Its like Gose vs Marisnick - my #2 vote will likely go to Gose based on his talent and readiness.

2009mvp
02-10-2012, 02:24 AM
FWIW, KLaw on Norris:

Norris' velocity fluctuated from start to start more than you'd expect; he'll touch 95 one start, then top out at 90 or 91 the next. He needs a consistent breaking ball, and the Jays are working to get him to land online consistently - he had a bad habit of landing on the side of his foot.

Obviously a hell of a talent, just a long ways away. Don't see how there's any way to justify taking him over TDA or either of the OF's at this point.

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 03:12 AM
Not sure if there is a limit of options you can put but this may have to go to 25...

There are some prospects that i would take over some that are listed.

A.J. Jimenez
Kevin Comer
Marcus Knecht
Griffin Murphy

Though i am not criticizing - good job starting this.

No worries, 3 of those 4 guys you mentioned were options in the poll last year, and received votes in the later rounds. All 4 will be an option later in the process.

DeRozan10
02-10-2012, 04:02 AM
It's that time of year again. The lists from the major evaluators are out, but are they right? :D

Here is how the Blue Jays forum ranked the prospects last year:

1. Kyle Drabek
2. Brett Lawrie
3. Zach Stewart
4. J.P. Arencibia
5. Travis d’Arnaud
6. Anthony Gose
7. Deck McGuire
8. Adeiny Hechavarria
9. Aaron Sanchez
10. Carlos Perez
11. Eric Thames
12. Jake Marisnick
13. Asher Wojciechowski
14. Henderson Alvarez
15. Chad Jenkins
16. Darin Mastroianni
17. Noah Syndergaard
18. Adonis Cardona
19. Dickie Joe Thon
20. AJ Jimenez

I don't think this first poll is going to be particularly close (just like last year when Drabek ran away with it), but lets get the formality out of the way, so we can move on and rank the rest.

Who is the Blue Jays #1 prospect?




Man that list is crazy. Alvarez at 14

No Molina

No Hutchinson


Wonder who are gonna be those guys this year. Very very exciting

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 04:19 AM
Man that list is crazy. Alvarez at 14

No Molina

No Hutchinson


Wonder who are gonna be those guys this year. Very very exciting

Actually, it's kinda cool we saw Alvarez at 14.

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=596804

I voted Dickie Joe Thon :laugh2:

Jay
02-10-2012, 04:26 AM
This should be a sweep consensus.....

BlueJayFanDan
02-10-2012, 06:35 AM
Absolutely no way we can go against d'Arnaud here. He isn't my favorite prospect personally, but the talent he shows at the hardest position in Baseball makes him easily our best and most valuable prospect.

BlueJayFanDan
02-10-2012, 06:37 AM
Btw, as far as last year's list, It's crazy to see how much things have changed in just 1 year.

Also, last year, I'm pretty sure I was biased and lobbied for Sean Ochinko every round because he is the freaking love of my life. I will be less biased this year lol. I promise.

JMac4PM
02-10-2012, 08:01 AM
I'm kinda interested in seeing where Chad Jenkins ranks... I thought he was too high last year and this year he might be ranked higher comin off a good season.

I think we should do 2 of these lists/ year. Maybe a mid season ranking?

nstojic
02-10-2012, 09:30 AM
it's d'arnaud but in 6 months, it could/should be Norris, if everything goes as planned...

bartron_44
02-10-2012, 09:45 AM
I wanted to go with TDA, but I just think Syndergaards potential is that much higher I gave the honor to him. He is an 18 year old kid consistently throwing 96-97 mph. He already ace type velocity, but he could be a triple digit starting pitcher in 2 years. I realize he is further away from the majors, but the kid just screams ace. I expect him to be a top 20 prospect after this season.

TRIUMPHATOR
02-10-2012, 09:53 AM
^ I believe we are talking right now. If it was future potential then it would be much more difficult for TDA to sweep as he should here.

TRIUMPHATOR
02-10-2012, 09:59 AM
Someone voted for Marisnick? Not only is he not 1 now I don't think he ever has a chance to be. You think he has more potential then Norris and Syndegaard? Wow thats high praise.

Krylian
02-10-2012, 10:13 AM
Someone voted for Marisnick? Not only is he not 1 now I don't think he ever has a chance to be. You think he has more potential then Norris and Syndegaard? Wow thats high praise.

Marisnick has a very high ceiling. But it's impossible to know who will reach their ultimate ceiling and who won't. Any one of those 3, and probably another 5-7 have a shot at being a #1 prospect for the Jays....we just don't know who it'll click for and who it won't.

I have my money on Cardona in a couple or three years. A lean, projectable, 6'4" 17 year old pitcher who was touching 96 last summer and has one of the best change-ups in the organization? He's gonna be a special one.

T.O. Fan
02-10-2012, 10:20 AM
BAM! I'm all over this! ;)

craigerlee
02-10-2012, 10:34 AM
Someone voted for Marisnick? Not only is he not 1 now I don't think he ever has a chance to be. You think he has more potential then Norris and Syndegaard? Wow thats high praise.

He's a potential five tool player with a good chance to play CF provided he's not blocked by Gose or Rasmus. He absolutely has the potential of Norris and Syndergaard. I think some are a little high on Norris, the guy is still extremely risky and if he was as good as some make him out to be he would of went in the top 15 with guys like Jungmann and Jed Bradley who got similar signing bonuses.

Krylian
02-10-2012, 10:41 AM
He's a potential five tool player with a good chance to play CF provided he's not blocked by Gose or Rasmus. He absolutely has the potential of Norris and Syndergaard. I think some are a little high on Norris, the guy is still extremely risky and if he was as good as some make him out to be guys like Jungmann and Jed Bradley wouldn't of been drafted ahead of him and given similar signing bonuses.

Norris was asking for $3.9M and had a strong commitment to Clemson.

I heard that a couple of GM's were asked about Norris signing for $2 and they said that if they knew he'd sign for that, he would've been drafted much, much sooner.

The only issues I've heard with Norris is that velocity was a little inconsistent (89-96) (Law was saying he has a tendency to land on the side of his foot a bit)...his curve had to be tightened up a little as well. Other than that, I've read in many places that he has a chance to have 3 plus pitches (FB, curve, change) and his slider is growing in effectiveness as well. He's very mature, his make-up is great, he's a hard worker, and an intense competitor. With those characteristics I can't see why some cleaning up of his mechanics isn't possible, let alone probable.

Yes. Every prospect is a gamble (Brien Taylor), but if you have the natural tools, can stay healthy, and have the will and desire to improve yourself, then I don't see any reason why Norris can't be everything we hope he'll become.

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 10:42 AM
I wanted to go with TDA, but I just think Syndergaards potential is that much higher I gave the honor to him. He is an 18 year old kid consistently throwing 96-97 mph. He already ace type velocity, but he could be a triple digit starting pitcher in 2 years. I realize he is further away from the majors, but the kid just screams ace. I expect him to be a top 20 prospect after this season.

I agree I'm just as high on Syndergaard as I am with Norris. 19 years old, could potential hit high Single or Double A like Hutchison if he continues his ways (though I may just see a jump to Dunedin for him just so he can play with Nicolino and Sanchez more). -- him and Norris are the two I'll be paying the most attention too (besides D'Arnaud).

Krylian
02-10-2012, 10:48 AM
I agree I'm just as high on Syndergaard as I am with Norris. 19 years old, could potential hit high Single or Double A like Hutchison if he continues his ways (though I may just see a jump to Dunedin for him just so he can play with Nicolino and Sanchez more). -- him and Norris are the two I'll be paying the most attention too (besides D'Arnaud).

The only thing that will keep Syndergaard back is the development of his secondary offerings...and I don't think that's a secret.

I've read tons of scouting reports on Syndergaard and they differ so much it's really hard to know for sure what's accurate.

I've ready that he's fastball only right now cause he's needed nothing else.
I've read that he's got the fastball and a plus curve.
I've ready that he has a fastball and a curve that shows plus at times but is inconsistent because sometimes he tries to snap it off too hard.
I've read that he has no change-up.
I've read that he has an average change-up and it's actually his 2nd best pitch.
I've read that he has a good feel for a change-up and it's a work in progress.

The bottom line is, if Noah can start to repeat his potential plus curveball and gets consistent with his change-up, he will skyrocket. We've seen many other golden arms struggle with their secondary stuff so we need be ready that he might as well...but the tools seem to all be there.

craigerlee
02-10-2012, 11:00 AM
Norris was asking for $3.9M and had a strong commitment to Clemson.

I heard that a couple of GM's were asked about Norris signing for $2 and they said that if they knew he'd sign for that, he would've been drafted much, much sooner.

Better way to put it, I don't think I saw any pre draft rankings that had Norris inside the top 15. Those draft rankings are independent of what signing bonus they're asking for. I agree he would of went much sooner, but inside the top 15 I doubt it.



The only issues I've heard with Norris is that velocity was a little inconsistent (89-96) (Law was saying he has a tendency to land on the side of his foot a bit)...his curve had to be tightened up a little as well. Other than that, I've read in many places that he has a chance to have 3 plus pitches (FB, curve, change) and his slider is growing in effectiveness as well. He's very mature, his make-up is great, he's a hard worker, and an intense competitor. With those characteristics I can't see why some cleaning up of his mechanics isn't possible, let alone probable.

Yes. Every prospect is a gamble (Brien Taylor), but if you have the natural tools, can stay healthy, and have the will and desire to improve yourself, then I don't see any reason why Norris can't be everything we hope he'll become.

I'm not saying he can't be an ace, but he's so far from a finished product and so much can go wrong that you have to take projectibility into account. I don't really care about all these soft comments such as he's a hard worker, great make-up, intense competitor, etc. cause there's very few prospects that get drafted in the first couple of rounds they don't say that about. I'd rather hear this guy is polished with strong command of his fastball, has 3 plus pitches, etc. Things that have substance and are much more tangible.

Krylian
02-10-2012, 11:59 AM
Better way to put it, I don't think I saw any pre draft rankings that had Norris inside the top 15. Those draft rankings are independent of what signing bonus they're asking for. I agree he would of went much sooner, but inside the top 15 I doubt it.


I guess it depends on what rankings you were looking at. Most people seemed to have him mid-1st round.

I saw lists back in November 2010 where Norris was ranked #2 behind only Dylan Bundy as the Top high-schooler, and many thought he'd be a Top 5 pick. Now, I understand that's November and the draft is in June, but he was thought of very, very highly, in a loaded draft, and I think had a bit more of a consistent season than many wanted to see out of him. That, along with the money/Clemson thing made him drop.

The truth is, dude hasn't throw a pro pitch yet...so we really have no idea exactly what we have, but I'm optimistic. I think we've got something real special in the making.

Krylian
02-10-2012, 12:00 PM
Is there any way d'Arnaud isn't #1?

Let's get to #2.....I'm real eager to see who takes it between Gose and Marisnick.....I think that thread is gonna have some venom spewing.

bomber0104
02-10-2012, 12:16 PM
I wanted to go with TDA, but I just think Syndergaards potential is that much higher I gave the honor to him. He is an 18 year old kid consistently throwing 96-97 mph. He already ace type velocity, but he could be a triple digit starting pitcher in 2 years. I realize he is further away from the majors, but the kid just screams ace. I expect him to be a top 20 prospect after this season.

I just don't know how you can do that.. the guy has been dominating in leagues where you can overmatch young hitters with a fastball and only a fastball. The biggest challenge will be once he moves up the higher levels where the hitters are more advanced and would require him to throw the breaking stuff which are much further behind.. Until then, its hard to put him as our top prospect

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 12:24 PM
I just don't know how you can do that.. the guy has been dominating in leagues where you can overmatch young hitters with a fastball and only a fastball. The biggest challenge will be once he moves up the higher levels where the hitters are more advanced and would require him to throw the breaking stuff which are much further behind.. Until then, its hard to put him as our top prospect

Im sure the Jays brass will look to start developing more of those secondary pitches, there's no doubt he's got a plus fastball. I wouldn't be surprised to see it, at the very worst if he absolutely cannot develop 2 secondary pitches (which I highly doubt, I think he'll be able to do so) he's a Jonathan Papelbon in my eyes, a guy who could be a stud closer -- though, of course, that's not what I expect from Syndergaard, he'll develop just fine...

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 12:26 PM
I'm interested to hear who choose Joel Carreno?

boilerguy2412
02-10-2012, 12:33 PM
I am really looking forward to seeing what Gose is going to do. This guy could be a real impact player for us next season. I was going to go with d'Arnaud like everyone else but i really think Gose can bring us more.

Krylian
02-10-2012, 12:35 PM
I'm interested to hear who choose Joel Carreno?

There are always 1 or 2 clowns that want to be comedians.

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 12:37 PM
I am really looking forward to seeing what Gose is going to do. This guy could be a real impact player for us next season. I was going to go with d'Arnaud like everyone else but i really think Gose can bring us more.

Gose still has to hit, which is his biggest flaw -- its what is also keeping Hech from the Majors right now. Hitting is basic, if you cant hit you will not be an everyday player -- now having said that the Jays werent too concerned with his average last year, they wanted to work on his power. It worked and this year they will be working to incorporate the small ball and being able to keep that power -- if he can accomplish this, he will be my top 3 for next year, though right now I have him behind D'Arnaud, Syndergaard and Marisnick in terms of my developed prospects (Norris being my fav just on potential) but Gose has better speed and a wicked arm so he could overtake Marisnick next year if he can start hitting for average...

phillipmike
02-10-2012, 12:51 PM
I think what happened last season is that a lot of fans (me included) did buy in or did not see what AA would do in regards to high ceiling talent. So as a result a lot of fans voted for the "safer" picks closer to the MLB than the high ceiling talent.

Now with the progress of high ceiling talent (Marisnick, Syndergaard etc.) and AA's addition of more you will see the voting change. The high ceiling talent guys will be higher on the list than the safer picks.

boilerguy2412
02-10-2012, 01:52 PM
Gose still has to hit, which is his biggest flaw -- its what is also keeping Hech from the Majors right now. Hitting is basic, if you cant hit you will not be an everyday player -- now having said that the Jays werent too concerned with his average last year, they wanted to work on his power. It worked and this year they will be working to incorporate the small ball and being able to keep that power -- if he can accomplish this, he will be my top 3 for next year, though right now I have him behind D'Arnaud, Syndergaard and Marisnick in terms of my developed prospects (Norris being my fav just on potential) but Gose has better speed and a wicked arm so he could overtake Marisnick next year if he can start hitting for average...

agree with you 100% Gose has all the tools to be a special player IMO. Speed, power, arm all good things to have when your looking for a centre fielder of the future.

Ace Drivers
02-10-2012, 02:41 PM
Before we get too excited about anointing a catcher as our saviour

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/9/2786565/catch-22-is-travis-darnaud-the-next-one

I just find it hard to rank a catcher as the number one prospect when the reality of it is generally speaking people tend to over value catching prospects...probably because everyone is looking for the next Piazza...which are very few and far between.

However, a catcher may find fire for 1, 2, 3 or maybe even 4 years...but most catchers have a shelf life when it comes to the bat and their careers become defined by their prowess behind the plate...not beside it.

So I would say our top prospect is Gose...here's a potential 5 tool guy would patrol centre field, while performing at the plate for a long time.

bartron_44
02-10-2012, 02:46 PM
I just don't know how you can do that.. the guy has been dominating in leagues where you can overmatch young hitters with a fastball and only a fastball. The biggest challenge will be once he moves up the higher levels where the hitters are more advanced and would require him to throw the breaking stuff which are much further behind.. Until then, its hard to put him as our top prospect

I get your point, but last year he was listed at 6'5 and only 200 lb's. Which means he hasn't even begun to fill out his frame yet. Pitchers don't really normally reach their maximum velocity until they are at least 21 years old. Look at the jumps Alvarez and Hutchison had just this past season. 6'5 with a high 90's fastball at the age of 18, the kid just oozes talent. I would actually be shocked if he doesn't turn into a triple digit arm, and be at the very least our next closer for about a decade. He is already showing signs at a solid breaking ball and change up though, give him another 400 innings (~3 years) to work on those breaking pitches and he should be pretty foolish.

You can't say you must always pick the guy closest to the big leagues for the clubs #1, as there are always guys no where close to the show near the top of the overall rankings. Are you going to tell me the RF'er playing AAA for the Nationals should be ranked higher then Bryce Harper on their teams prospect list?

I value an ace pitcher of a good hitting catcher, and that's why I chose Syndergaard. He is the closest "prospect" that we have that could turn into our #1 starter.

I say "prospect" as I don't think you can sleep on Henderson Alvarez becoming an ace type pitcher either....He just isn't on this list. He already has 2 PLUS pitches.(3 if you distinguish between 4-seamer and 2-seamer) , but if he masters a breaking ball, he could be dominant. He has Halladay type movement on his fastball, and maybe even a better changeup. He had an ERA of 3.53 as a rookie coming straight from AA.

Don't give up on Drabek just yet either. He can also bring it in the mid 90's with a devastating breaking ball and change up. He had an off year last year, but was the best pitcher in the Eastern League in 2010. He still has 3 or 4 years to figure things out before he hits his prime.

Farsight
02-10-2012, 03:01 PM
My issue with people ranking Syndergaard so high is because he is so far away. If he had Sanchez stuff (breaking ball wise) and did what he did last year, i would feel more comfortable with a top 3 rankings, but other than that he is still to far away. He and many of the young pitchers are just "untapped potential" many years away from making the bigs

bomber0104
02-10-2012, 03:19 PM
Before we get too excited about anointing a catcher as our saviour

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/9/2786565/catch-22-is-travis-darnaud-the-next-one

I just find it hard to rank a catcher as the number one prospect when the reality of it is generally speaking people tend to over value catching prospects...probably because everyone is looking for the next Piazza...which are very few and far between.

However, a catcher may find fire for 1, 2, 3 or maybe even 4 years...but most catchers have a shelf life when it comes to the bat and their careers become defined by their prowess behind the plate...not beside it.

So I would say our top prospect is Gose...here's a potential 5 tool guy would patrol centre field, while performing at the plate for a long time.

their rarity is what makes them so valuable.. There isn't much that D'Arnaud hasn't done. His only issue is strikeouts but if that is your only problem with a catching prospect that won MVP in the minors' best pitching league, thats a pretty good thing

Ace Drivers
02-10-2012, 03:34 PM
For what it's worth I tend to separate pitching prospects from position prospects as they play in so few games relative to their teammates...and therefore over the course of a 160+ games they have much less opportunity to affect a teams overall results...

Look at Halladay...consistently one of the top pitchers for the last 10 years or so, maybe even the best...eitherway he's a first ballot guy destined for cooperstown...but even he would acknowledge his ability to affect the fortunes of a team are limited. One could even argue that an elite closer is more valuable than an elite starter since they simply play in more games...not innings, but appearances. The Jays are perfect example of how a bad closer(s) can impact your teams fortunes...

In 2011 the converted 57% of save opportunities, had we performed at a league average rate of 68.5% we would have won 7 more games than we did. Which would have put us in the conversation down the stretch, I still not in the playoffs...but a heck of a lot closer than an 81 - 81 record suggests...

2009mvp
02-10-2012, 03:38 PM
Halladay first ballot? Closer>ace? Is this bizarro world?

Ace Drivers
02-10-2012, 03:43 PM
their rarity is what makes them so valuable.. There isn't much that D'Arnaud hasn't done. His only issue is strikeouts but if that is your only problem with a catching prospect that won MVP in the minors' best pitching league, thats a pretty good thing

Don't get me wrong I love his potential...as a catcher, and he's clearly a damn good ball player...certainly better than me...

but the fact that he's a catcher in my mind diminishes his long-term value. And he really only has had one good season, and up until last year every one talked about his potential, not what he actually had done...

Also thank you for making my point...the fact that Elite catchers are so rare tends to result in an over valuation.

I try to look at this way, if you were starting a MLB club from scratch, what position would start with...OF, IF, Pitcher or Catcher

Me personally, I'm building my team around an Elite CF

Ace Drivers
02-10-2012, 03:48 PM
Further to that question...I would hope people change their vote for the current top prospect once they answer that question for themselves...if not, perhaps the "Top Prospect" question should be worded more like

Of the current crop of prospects who has the most potential to become an elite player at their position? If that's the question...then I would agree D'Ar is our top prospect, closely followed by Gose...otherwise #1 is Gose, #2????

Ace Drivers
02-10-2012, 03:57 PM
Halladay first ballot? Closer>ace? Is this bizarro world?

Why bizarro? Do you actually agree with those comments?!:clap:

Krylian
02-10-2012, 03:58 PM
Further to that question...I would hope people change their vote for the current top prospect once they answer that question for themselves...if not, perhaps the "Top Prospect" question should be worded more like

Of the current crop of prospects who has the most potential to become an elite player at their position? If that's the question...then I would agree D'Ar is our top prospect, closely followed by Gose...otherwise #1 is Gose, #2????

Gose has the best tools.

But what are the odds that he turns his ample tools into actual skills. Cause the 2 are different.

If Gose improves the hit tool and decreases his strikeout rate, he's easily a Top 10 prospect going into 2013...cause every other part of his game is significant.

Farsight
02-10-2012, 04:06 PM
For what it's worth I tend to separate pitching prospects from position prospects as they play in so few games relative to their teammates...and therefore over the course of a 160+ games they have much less opportunity to affect a teams overall results...

Look at Halladay...consistently one of the top pitchers for the last 10 years or so, maybe even the best...eitherway he's a first ballot guy destined for cooperstown...but even he would acknowledge his ability to affect the fortunes of a team are limited. One could even argue that an elite closer is more valuable than an elite starter since they simply play in more games...not innings, but appearances. The Jays are perfect example of how a bad closer(s) can impact your teams fortunes...

In 2011 the converted 57% of save opportunities, had we performed at a league average rate of 68.5% we would have won 7 more games than we did. Which would have put us in the conversation down the stretch, I still not in the playoffs...but a heck of a lot closer than an 81 - 81 record suggests...

That is a whole misconception. A starting pitcher, will have a great impact on the game as well. For example, Halladay had batters come up to the plate against him about 700 times this year. Bautista only had 665 plate appearances this year. However, when you than added defensive plays, Bautista has a bigger impact, which is around 250 defensive plays per year. And when you compare a starting pitcher to a closer... The impact a pitcher will have compared to a closer is not even close.

And a person who does throw more innings will have more of an impact, regardless of how many appearances a relief pitcher has (due to the lack of batters faced= less impact)

2009mvp
02-10-2012, 04:08 PM
Why bizarro? Do you actually agree with those comments?!:clap:

LOL no.


Gose has the best tools.

But what are the odds that he turns his ample tools into actual skills. Cause the 2 are different.

If Gose improves the hit tool and decreases his strikeout rate, he's easily a Top 10 prospect going into 2013...cause every other part of his game is significant.

Yeah, all the other stuff is great it just doesn't mean all that much if he can't, y'know, hit the baseball. His glove will get him to the bigs, but hitting will be the difference between an All-Star and oh I dunno, let's say Carlos Gomez for lazy comparison's sake.

DeRozan10
02-10-2012, 04:20 PM
After 1 it will get intresting

Ace Drivers
02-10-2012, 04:29 PM
That is a whole misconception. A starting pitcher, will have a great impact on the game as well. For example, Halladay had batters come up to the plate against him about 700 times this year. Bautista only had 665 plate appearances this year. However, when you than added defensive plays, Bautista has a bigger impact, which is around 250 defensive plays per year. And when you compare a starting pitcher to a closer... The impact a pitcher will have compared to a closer is not even close.

And a person who does throw more innings will have more of an impact, regardless of how many appearances a relief pitcher has (due to the lack of batters faced= less impact)

First, I didn't say that starting pitchers don't impact the games...they obviously do.

However, think of a pitchers dual, and the score is 1 - 1 going into the bottom of the 9th...closer comes in, walks the first batter, next batter HR. Who affected the game more...the closer did. The starter kept them in it, but the closer lost it...

Just ask Ricky about the value of a good closer...he wins 5 more games and is Cy young Candidate

KaiserSose
02-10-2012, 04:36 PM
First, I didn't say that starting pitchers don't impact the games...they obviously do.

However, think of a pitchers dual, and the score is 1 - 1 going into the bottom of the 9th...closer comes in, walks the first batter, next batter HR. Who affected the game more...the closer did. The starter kept them in it, but the closer lost it...

Just ask Ricky about the value of a good closer...he wins 5 more games and is Cy young Candidate

If you are making the case for worst poster in the Jays forum, you are doing a mighty fine job. Seriously, put down the bong before you type this stuff.

Ace Drivers
02-10-2012, 04:44 PM
LOL no.

.

Now I know you are not a jays fan if you don't think Halladay is a first ballot Hall of Famer...but that's Ok at least you try and dissect other's arguments with some form of logic...rather than resulting to lowbrow insults when someone makes a point that you can't rebut...

Farsight
02-10-2012, 04:47 PM
First, I didn't say that starting pitchers don't impact the games...they obviously do.

However, think of a pitchers dual, and the score is 1 - 1 going into the bottom of the 9th...closer comes in, walks the first batter, next batter HR. Who affected the game more...the closer did. The starter kept them in it, but the closer lost it...

Just ask Ricky about the value of a good closer...he wins 5 more games and is Cy young Candidate You do know that the first inning is just as important as the last right?, a home run in the 1st is just as valuable as a home run in the 9th. The only difference is that people remember blowing a lead in the 9th more so than the prior innings because its more magnified

Ace Drivers
02-10-2012, 04:51 PM
You do know that the first inning is just as important as the last right?, a home run in the 1st is just as valuable as a home run in the 9th. The only difference is that people remember blowing a lead in the 9th more so than the prior innings because its more magnified

Um wrong...a HR in the first is not as valuable as a HR in the 9th. Sure they each equate to one run on the scoreboard, but a team has 8 other innings to come back from it...you score a HR in the bottom of the 9th with the game tied...game over!

Farsight
02-10-2012, 05:03 PM
Um wrong...a HR in the first is not as valuable as a HR in the 9th. Sure they each equate to one run on the scoreboard, but a team has 8 other innings to come back from it...you score a HR in the bottom of the 9th with the game tied...game over!
that does not prove anything.

If team A scores 5 runs in the 1st and wins a game 5-4, and team B scores 5 runs in the 9th to win the game 5-4, they are just both as equally important. There value is EQUAL.

Another example, a home run in the first that allows a team to win 1-0 is just as important as a walk off home run in the 9th as the team wins 1-0.

It does not matter when you score the run, the value of the run is equal. Outs are arbitrary, it should not really matter when a team scored a run, all that matters is you score a run regardless of the inning. a 3 run home run in the 5th is just as equal as a 3 run home run in the 9th, the only difference is that one came earlier in the game than the other

craigerlee
02-10-2012, 05:10 PM
that does not prove anything.

[B]If team A scores 5 runs in the 1st and wins a game 5-4, and team B scores 5 runs in the 9th to win the game 5-4, they are just both as equally important. There value is EQUAL.

Another example, a home run in the first that allows a team to win 1-0 is just as important as a walk off home run in the 9th as the team wins 1-0.

It does not matter when you score the run, the value of the run is equal. Outs are arbitrary, it should not really matter when a team scored a run, all that matters is you score a run regardless of the inning. a 3 run home run in the 5th is just as equal as a 3 run home run in the 9th, the only difference is that one came earlier in the game than the other

Runs in later innings are technically more valuable cause they increase the chances of you winning as the other team has less probability of come back. However I don't think its that much of a difference. WPA is pretty much based on when you score or give up runs. In your situation team B's last run is more important cause the other team can't come back.

Farsight
02-10-2012, 05:13 PM
Runs in later innings are technically more valuable cause they increase the chances of you winning as the other team has less probability of come back. However I don't think its that much of a difference. WPA is pretty much based on when you score or give up runs. Yes i am aware of that (sorry for generalizing), but to argue that a closer has more value than a starting pitcher based on the value of run in the latter innings, which as you said is minimal, does not equal to the difference of batters faced between them, thus making a starting pitcher a lot more valuable than a closer which was my initial argument

craigerlee
02-10-2012, 05:17 PM
Yes i am aware of that (sorry for generalizing), but to argue that a closer has more value than a starting pitcher based on the value of run in the latter innings, which as you said is minimal, does not equal to the difference of batters faced between them, thus making a starting pitcher a lot more valuable than a closer

Well if a starter only pitched 60-70 innings then I'd make the case the closer is more valuable, but seeing as the starter is pitching 200+ innings its not even close.

Farsight
02-10-2012, 05:20 PM
Well if a starter only pitched 60-70 innings then I'd make the case the closer is more valuable, but seeing as the starter is pitching 200+ innings its not even close. Yes i realize that but Acedriver was saying that an elite closer (e.g. Rivera) has a bigger impact on a game than an elite pitcher (e.g. Halladay), which is completely wrong

craigerlee
02-10-2012, 05:28 PM
Yes i realize that but Acedriver was saying that an elite closer (e.g. Rivera) has a bigger impact on a game than an elite pitcher (e.g. Halladay), which is completely wrong

Ya you'd think the fact a good starter is probably gonna pitch at least 7 times more innings in one game then a closer would, it would be pretty apparent the starter had a much larger impact. I'm pretty sure the 9th inning isn't 7 times more important then innings 1-7.

Toxeryll
02-10-2012, 05:49 PM
I take D'arnaud

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 07:31 PM
well unless there is some kind of miracle d'arnaud is winning the first round, might as well flip the page and start with #2 now...

bomber0104
02-10-2012, 07:36 PM
I think you need to close this... this is not close and the discussion is getting out of hand

PJ Awesome
02-10-2012, 07:39 PM
Apparently I went with the popular choice

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 08:00 PM
As expected, d'Arnaud ran away with it. Moving on...

Who is #2? This could be interesting.

WhatSayYou
02-10-2012, 08:14 PM
Whoo Im dominating the polls!

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 08:17 PM
I have to admit, I struggled with this one. I went with Marisnick, but Gose is so close...

Bombtista
02-10-2012, 08:42 PM
Im going to say Gose. Personally he is my favourite prospect and I think the way the Jays have handeled him will allow him to be a better all around player.

Plus major stolen base potential which is good when it comes with a quality bat.

Dol-Fan
02-10-2012, 08:48 PM
I went with Gose...still young for his level, produced well, is a major league on tools alone, and has shown serious yearly improvements. Marisnick moves well ahead of him if he keeps performing at A/AA.

fatkev78
02-10-2012, 08:52 PM
As much as I like Marisnick I'm going to have to go with Gose. Gose is only a year older, yet is about to be playing AAA while Marisnick will be entering his 1st year of A ball. I'm also excited to see what Gose can do this year with the handcuffs off (look up the article if you don't know what I'm talking about). If Gose can increase his OBP due to being allowed to bunt, having a 2 strike approach, etc. what will his SB numbers be? The guy had 70 last year FFS! (With 15 CS).

JMac4PM
02-10-2012, 08:58 PM
I'm picking Hutchison. He is closer to the Show than Gose and Marisnick and he dominated AA.

jamjar
02-10-2012, 09:03 PM
vote goes to Hutch. sames reason as ^

Dol-Fan
02-10-2012, 09:04 PM
As much as I like Marisnick I'm going to have to go with Gose. Gose is only a year older, yet is about to be playing AAA while Marisnick will be entering his 1st year of A ball. I'm also excited to see what Gose can do this year with the handcuffs off (look up the article if you don't know what I'm talking about). If Gose can increase his OBP due to being allowed to bunt, having a 2 strike approach, etc. what will his SB numbers be? The guy had 70 last year FFS! (With 15 CS).

This is my response whenever questioned about Gose over Marisnick. If Marisnick can reach AA next year and perform like he has been, things change quite a bit...unless, of course, Gose matures even further and pumps up the AVG with a 2 strike approach.

Toxeryll
02-10-2012, 09:14 PM
Im going with my favorite prospect Gose

BlueJayFanDan
02-10-2012, 10:26 PM
I voted for Marisnick. 5 tool outfielder with a world of potential. I love Gose and some of the others too, but I just couldn't vote against Marisnick here.

Farsight
02-10-2012, 10:39 PM
Marisnick has the better bat currently, and he has been using all 5 tools, where Gose bat is his biggest question mark. Until that occurs, ill take Marisnick

DeRozan10
02-10-2012, 10:48 PM
Gotta be Gose. This kid has an incredibly high ceiling.

DeRozan10
02-10-2012, 10:49 PM
My preojection for the top 5

Travis d'Arnaud
Anthony Gose
Jake Marisnick
Drew Hutchinson
Noah Syndergaard

Jamiecballer
02-10-2012, 10:49 PM
seems kinda silly the poll options aren't alphabetical :shrug:

i voted Marisnick

PJ Awesome
02-10-2012, 11:18 PM
I went with an underdog, Hech! just a feeling I have...;)

Farsight
02-10-2012, 11:19 PM
I think we can all agree that Marisnick and Gose are five tool players, and Gose has the higher ceiling because of his speed/defense. However, i personally believe that Marisnick currently has a more developed bat than Gose. I believed that they will both make the majors one day, it would be nice to have an outfield of Gose, Rasmus, and Marisnick, with Bautista at first

StealingSigns
02-10-2012, 11:26 PM
seems kinda silly the poll options aren't alphabetical :shrug:

i voted Marisnick

Hey, at least I didn't list Carreno twice like I did in the first poll :o

Farsight
02-10-2012, 11:28 PM
I can imagine in the next 2-3 years a lineup of

1. Escobar - SS
2. Gose - CF
3. Bautista - 1B
4. Lawrie - 3B
5. Rasmus - LF
6. Johnson - 2B
7. D'arnaud - C
8- Marisnick - RF
9- Snider - DH

Im starting to salivate just thinking about the possibilities (if everyone can come close to their potential)

statquo
02-10-2012, 11:35 PM
Gotta go with Marisnick. Gose might have the higher ceiling but if he can't hit then he won't be able to use that speed.

nithanyo
02-10-2012, 11:38 PM
As expected, d'Arnaud ran away with it. Moving on...

Who is #2? This could be interesting.

You don't need a new thread for this. Pretty much whoever had the second most votes in the #1 prospect is the second best prospect.. Just saying

Dol-Fan
02-10-2012, 11:39 PM
I think we can all agree that Marisnick and Gose are five tool players, and Gose has the higher ceiling because of his speed/defense. However, i personally believe that Marisnick currently has a more developed bat than Gose. I believed that they will both make the majors one day, it would be nice to have an outfield of Gose, Rasmus, and Marisnick, with Bautista at first

hard to say with him playing 2 levels lower and only 1 year younger. I tend to agree but I want to see Marisnick at a higher level and Gose with a 2-strike approach.

and lol at Hech.

mtf
02-10-2012, 11:59 PM
You don't need a new thread for this. Pretty much whoever had the second most votes in the #1 prospect is the second best prospect.. Just saying

Logically, no. Not that any of these polls matter in any way, but the few people who didn't recognize D'Arnaud as the top prospect aren't really legitimate candidates to tell us who #2 is. :p

Voted for Marisnick, maybe it's 'cus I've read some negative things about Gose and Marisnick hasn't had as much written about him, but proximity to "the show" doesn't really add anything in terms of potential for me.

#3 would have to be Justin Nicolino. I'd like to see him make a few jumps in the organization next year.

BlueJayFanDan
02-11-2012, 12:00 AM
You don't need a new thread for this. Pretty much whoever had the second most votes in the #1 prospect is the second best prospect.. Just saying

There was really no clear cut number 2. d'Arnaud really cleaned house. I'll probably agree whichever loses between Marisnick and Gose in this vote is probably number 3 and he wont need a new thread for that one, but this thread was necessary.

BlueJayFanDan
02-11-2012, 12:02 AM
Not to mention, Noah Syndergaard, who is currently 4th this round, was 2nd last round lol. So it really makes no sense skipping a round of voting unless its truly down to 2 players for 1 spot.

StealingSigns
02-11-2012, 12:44 AM
You don't need a new thread for this. Pretty much whoever had the second most votes in the #1 prospect is the second best prospect.. Just saying

Not true.

By your reasoning, Syndergaard would be anointed the #2, when he is nowhere close to being the #2 (as per this poll).

It just doesn't work that way.

StealingSigns
02-11-2012, 12:47 AM
There was really no clear cut number 2. d'Arnaud really cleaned house. I'll probably agree whichever loses between Marisnick and Gose in this vote is probably number 3 and he wont need a new thread for that one, but this thread was necessary.

We debated that last year, and even experimented with having multiple votes/round. The majority of posters want a round-by-round ranking, so that's what we shall do :)

Twitchy
02-11-2012, 12:59 AM
I don't think anybody can justify having Gose ahead of Marisnick. One guy is all tools and hasn't put them together while the other has put his to use. Till Gose shows he can make contact, Marisnick is the better of the two.

Dol-Fan
02-11-2012, 01:10 AM
I don't think anybody can justify having Gose ahead of Marisnick. One guy is all tools and hasn't put them together while the other has put his to use. Till Gose shows he can make contact, Marisnick is the better of the two.

You don't see how anyone can justify it? Come on now. I think you can justify both. I wouldn't criticize a Marisnick choice, but it all depends on your philosophy in judging prospects.

For me, I have difficulty placing an A-ball player that high. Gose is just 1 year older and played 2 levels higher last year. He has superior tools and based on those tools alone is a sure-fire major leaguer (D/arm/speed combination gets him a 4th OF job). I like Marisnick a lot, but players only receive a true test after A ball. That is where true prospects are separated from the pack. You actually made a similar point the other day in saying that Jeff Mathis was a top prospect but only began to struggle after A ball (I am NOT comparing the two, merely recognizing a potential inconsistency in your judgment). If he shows similar production at high A and double A, he easily moves ahead of Gose. It is further difficult to disentangle the cause(s) for Gose's trouble making contact - obviously he was asked to work on other things last year (e.g., power stroke, consistent swing). And he did. Quite successfully. Perhaps he truly is a poor contact hitter, or perhaps the Jays' coaches are being truthful in saying that he was instructed to have zero 2-strike approach last year and that was the reason for his struggles making contact.

phillipmike
02-11-2012, 01:25 AM
You don't see how anyone can justify it? Come on now. I think you can justify both. I wouldn't criticize a Marisnick choice, but it all depends on your philosophy in judging prospects.

For me, I have difficulty placing an A-ball player that high. Gose is just 1 year older and played 2 levels higher last year. He has superior tools and based on those tools alone is a sure-fire major leaguer (D/arm/speed combination gets him a 4th OF job). I like Marisnick a lot, but players only receive a true test after A ball. That is where true prospects are separated from the pack. You actually made a similar point the other day in saying that Jeff Mathis was a top prospect but only began to struggle after A ball (I am NOT comparing the two, merely recognizing a potential inconsistency in your judgment). If he shows similar production at high A and double A, he easily moves ahead of Gose. It is further difficult to disentangle the cause(s) for Gose's trouble making contact - obviously he was asked to work on other things last year (e.g., power stroke, consistent swing). And he did. Quite successfully. Perhaps he truly is a poor contact hitter, or perhaps the Jays' coaches are being truthful in saying that he was instructed to have zero 2-strike approach last year and that was the reason for his struggles making contact.

X2

Marisnick was not in anyone's top ten last year and had one really good year in A ball and now he is better than Gose and possibly number 2? Marisnick has the tools and ability to be better but one season does not indicate the all deciding factor - Marisnick can have a bad year this year and he will drop on everyone's list. Marisnick has to perform and perform well at different levels for him to be considered to be better than Gose.

Marisnick is a great prospect and glad to have him and i think he and Gose are close in terms of ceiling but Gose is a lot closer to his than Marisnick is - so a case can be made for Gose.

Twitchy
02-11-2012, 01:36 AM
You don't see how anyone can justify it? Come on now. I think you can justify both. I wouldn't criticize a Marisnick choice, but it all depends on your philosophy in judging prospects.

I like my prospects to be able to hit a baseball. Gose has a 250 BA. Batting average in the majors is worthless, but in the minors it's a hitters ability to make contact is critical to their success. And Gose hasn't done that. Ever.

If you value tools without success at the minor league level you could say Gose is a good prospect. But at some point you have to see the hitting tool succeeding, and not being able to put the bat on the ball is a pretty critical failure regardless of the reasons.


You actually made a similar point the other day in saying that Jeff Mathis was a top prospect but only began to struggle after A ball (I am NOT comparing the two, merely recognizing a potential inconsistency in your judgment).

I didn't say he is or isn't a true prospect because he struggled past A ball, I said the pattern of him struggling after A ball and D'Arnauld improving in AA meant that there was no comparison. One player got better with tougher competition while the other struggled, meaning it's an invalid comparison. I didn't say anything before A ball is invalid.

Not once did I say you had to be above A ball to prove one's success. Just that looking in hindsight it's obvious Mathis and D'Arnauld aren't similar at all.


It is further difficult to disentangle the cause(s) for Gose's trouble making contact - obviously he was asked to work on other things last year (e.g., power stroke, consistent swing). And he did. Quite successfully.

But the lack of contact ain't a one time thing. It's happened every year of his career. He's shown no improvement here.


Perhaps he truly is a poor contact hitter, or perhaps the Jays' coaches are being truthful in saying that he was instructed to have zero 2-strike approach last year and that was the reason for his struggles making contact.

If he's a poor contact hitter in the minors he'll never be successful in the majors. Even guys like Adam Dunn hit 300 in the minors. 304 to be exact.

ILDD
02-11-2012, 01:37 AM
Went with Gose over Marisnick by a hair.

To me they both seem to be similar players with Super Star ceilings but Gose's is slightly higher with Marisnick more likely to reach his.

I'm a sucker for ultimate ceiling guys so Gose is at #2 for me but you could make a solid argument for either of the two.

Sanyo
02-11-2012, 01:43 AM
Marisnick starts in High A this year, Gose in Triple A -- though I wouldnt be surprised to see him in Double A by the end of the year and then maybe a start at Triple A for 2013 -- he is not too far behind Gose to be honest since Gose is not progressing to the Majors likely until 2013 -- Marisnick may make it for late 2013....

Farsight
02-11-2012, 02:01 AM
Gose has all the tools in the world to be great, however, he has not put it together like Marisnick has, while Marisnick has all the tools in the world to be great to (albeit not as high as a ceiling but just barely) and has performed. Gose has trouble with contact, as Twitchy mentioned. That i believe is the difference between the two. Marisnick is actually young for his league, you cant blame him for Gose being fast tracked by the Phillies

DeRozan10
02-11-2012, 02:24 AM
What I think a lot of people don't realize is that Gose is only 6 months older than Marisnick.

Anthony Gose will be starting in AAA

Jake Marisnick will be starting in A


Both have incredibly high ceilings, but at this point you just have to give the edge to Gose, especially considering his speed.

fatkev78
02-11-2012, 02:52 AM
I don't think anybody can justify having Gose ahead of Marisnick.

Uh-oh, you better tell Marc Hulet from Fangraphs, Nathan Rode from BA and MLB.com as they all had Gose ahead of Marisnick.

I'm certainly not saying that Gose is better than Marisnick, but to say you don't think anybody can justify Gose ahead of Marisnick is ignorant.

I can see Anybody arguing Either over the other. That's why it's so close on our poll & tied between the 6 major lists.

The_Jet11
02-11-2012, 03:29 AM
I went Gose. I think that Marisnick is just behind him, however Gose's floor may be higher than Marisnicks. At the very WORST, Gose should be an excellent 4th outfielder, with great D, can swipe bags at will, and hopefully hit a little. Marisnick will rely on his hit tool more than Gose. I can't wait to see an OF of LF Rasmus, CF Gose, and RF Marisnick in 2015 (with Jose DH'ing?). Not many balls gonna drop with those rabbits out there!

Also I think Hutchison could give us Marcum type of numbers. I'm not convinced that he has true ACE potential yet, so I'm hesitant to rate him super high.

BlueJayFanDan
02-11-2012, 04:04 AM
I'm with Twitchy on this. Gose has great potential, but he has not shown anything that makes him stand out above Marisnick. He has a very high ceiling, but for now I don't know if it can be justified calling him a better prospect.

T.O. Fan
02-11-2012, 09:08 AM
Marisnick

Nica
02-11-2012, 09:10 AM
I voted Marisnick based on his 5 tool package. However I wouldn't argue with anyone over putting Gose in that spot. The power surge this last year is kind of interesting. I hate to see such a speedster get pull happy and sacrifice OBP. That crazy speed and putting the bat on the ball could create an amazing OBP. With his range and a gun for an arm all I can say is that Rasmus better show up in 2012.

Whenever I look at the Jays minor league sysytem I find myself looking for Syndergaard's name. I guess I'm pumped to see his potential make the leap to the bigs. High 90's with a great curve doesn't come around that often.

StealingSigns
02-11-2012, 10:28 AM
Gose has an interesting AB ritual in between pitches:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0PXAoztbtg&feature=related

craigerlee
02-11-2012, 10:58 AM
I went with Gose, I think he's a major leaguer on his speed, defense, and arm alone and all his tools other than contact grade equal or better than Marisnick's tools. I was extremely high on Lawrie prior to last year and he didn't have the greatest contact rate either(albeit better than Gose), but I gave him the benefit of the doubt cause he was so young for the league and I'm gonna do the same with Gose. Also I somewhat believe the article from Sportsnet that once he starts bunting more and trying less to make home run contact on 2 strike counts he's gonna reduce his strike out rate and find that he gets a few more hits. I like Marisnick a lot, but this is the first year he really put it all together as last year he wasn't even close to this good, and he really struggled in the 34 games he played at Lansing last year. I am however definitely ready to put him ahead of Gose if he keeps this up A+ and AA next year.

town123
02-11-2012, 10:59 AM
I went with Gose because his ceiling is higher with Jake's floor being higher.

It's hard to say either way. I didn't see Gose play, but saw Jake a bunch. The kid is a stud no doubt, as he excelled against the fastball but took his lumps with the offspeed junk. Gose probably saw much better pitching in AA and struggled with all offspeed stuff as well. You can't go wrong with either kid.

I'd love to see Snider, Gose and Jake in the OF in the future.

Sanyo
02-11-2012, 11:05 AM
Needless to say Gose and Marisnick, along with either Snider or Rasmus could potentially make one of the best outfields in all of baseball (assuming Bautista moves to 1b or DH)...

To me that's all that matters...

StealingSigns
02-11-2012, 11:09 AM
Looks like I'm leaving this poll up for it's 48 hour duration. This is going to be close.

bomber0104
02-11-2012, 11:27 AM
I don't think anybody can justify having Gose ahead of Marisnick. One guy is all tools and hasn't put them together while the other has put his to use. Till Gose shows he can make contact, Marisnick is the better of the two.

Its quite easy actually and very obvious..

Can you tell me with confidence that if Marisnick started this season in AA, he would put up similar numbers to what Gose did last year? Even if he does, Gose wins out because of his superior speed, defense, arm.

Now ofcourse if Marisnick goes out and puts up another big year at advanced A and follows it up in AA while Gose continues to struggle with the strikeouts, then I would have no problem with him being ranked higher

I love Marisnick but i'd like to see more than 1 season before putting him above a guy in Gose who has only gotten better as he has moved up the minor league ladder while always facing older competition

there is also the floor argument.. Gose has a very good chance of being a major leaguer while Marisnick is too far out for us to say anything with certainty

JaysFan87
02-11-2012, 11:35 AM
That is a whole misconception. A starting pitcher, will have a great impact on the game as well. For example, Halladay had batters come up to the plate against him about 700 times this year. Bautista only had 665 plate appearances this year. However, when you than added defensive plays, Bautista has a bigger impact, which is around 250 defensive plays per year. And when you compare a starting pitcher to a closer... The impact a pitcher will have compared to a closer is not even close.

And a person who does throw more innings will have more of an impact, regardless of how many appearances a relief pitcher has (due to the lack of batters faced= less impact)

That is also a misconception because even though he affects 700 AB its only in 32 games while a position player affects 162 games. SO that pitcher (Halladay) could be dominate but he is only dominating in 32 games while the hitter (Bautista) could be dominate for 650 AB but is affecting 162~ games.

Twitchy
02-11-2012, 11:45 AM
Its quite easy actually and very obvious..

Can you tell me with confidence that if Marisnick started this season in AA, he would put up similar numbers to what Gose did last year?

Gose posted a 253/349/415 line. That's not exactly hard to beat.

Just for the record - Gose was 24% above league average in AA and 27% above league average in A+. Marisnick was 60% above league average in A. And just for the record, Gose was 6% above average when he was in A ball like Marisnick.

I would be very surprised if Marisnick wasn't better than Gose's line next year.

IIRC, Gose has the advantage in age which means it's impressive he's holding his own against younger competition. That's always a good sign. But the lack of contact worries me, especially compared to the level of success Marisnick has had. Which is why I can't really understand why people put Gose in front, unless they're arguing pure upside (in which case, Gose is higher, but has significantly more risk).


Even if he does, Gose wins out because of his superior speed, defense, arm.


Only if their performances are similar. Marisnick is a very good defender himself, and if he posts a superior batting line he'll easily have the better season.


Now ofcourse if Marisnick goes out and puts up another big year at advanced A and follows it up in AA while Gose continues to struggle with the strikeouts, then I would have no problem with him being ranked higher


So basically you just contradicted what you said before, that even if Marisnick has a good year Gose will be better. That's what you just said.


I love Marisnick but i'd like to see more than 1 season before putting him above a guy in Gose who has only gotten better as he has moved up the minor league ladder while always facing older competition


Actually, relative to the league he hasn't improved that much. He's better than he was as a Philly, but his walk rate dropped in AA (10.6 vs 11.5 in A+ with the Jays), his K rate went up (26.2% in AA vs 25.7% in A+ with the Jays) and the ISO went down (161 in AA vs 170 in A+ with the Jays). Again, none of these ratios are significant decreases, but what it shows is that he didn't improve like you're suggesting.

I'm not saying any of those numbers (except maybe the K rate) are bad - just that it's difficult to show he improved when those 3 numbers say he didn't.


there is also the floor argument.. Gose has a very good chance of being a major leaguer while Marisnick is too far out for us to say anything with certainty

Sure, Gose has the better floor. But to this point Marisnick has blown Gose out of the water. The question on both guys is whether they're able to put their tools to use, and so far I'd argue pretty confidently that Marisnick has done a much better job of using his tools than Gose. Marisnick has been 57-60% above league average in R and A ball. Gose at his best has been 24-27%. This is factoring in park factors too.

When you think of it that way, it's tough to argue Gose has been better unless your only criteria is upside.

craigerlee
02-11-2012, 12:19 PM
Actually, relative to the league he hasn't improved that much. He's better than he was as a Philly, but his walk rate dropped in AA (10.6 vs 11.5 in A+ with the Jays), his K rate went up (26.2% in AA vs 25.7% in A+ with the Jays) and the ISO went down (161 in AA vs 170 in A+ with the Jays). Again, none of these ratios are significant decreases, but what it shows is that he didn't improve like you're suggesting.

I'm not saying any of those numbers (except maybe the K rate) are bad - just that it's difficult to show he improved when those 3 numbers say he didn't.


That .170 ISO and 11.5% BB rate was in 27 games, the .161 ISO and 10.6% BB rate is based on 137 games, why are we even comparing these? It makes much more sense to compare it to the Phillies A+ numbers and there's a significant improvement there.

Dol-Fan
02-11-2012, 12:28 PM
I like my prospects to be able to hit a baseball. Gose has a 250 BA. Batting average in the majors is worthless, but in the minors it's a hitters ability to make contact is critical to their success. And Gose hasn't done that. Ever.

Ah, really? ****, that's something I would have never thought to look for in a prospect.

What was Colby Rasmus' BA in AAA? .251 (90 games rather than 150, still a significant sample size. We're not talking 30 games). He's had success in the majors. Down year last year, sure, but if I recall, you were pretty high on him at the trade deadline and have been optimistic about his future.

Andrew McCutchen in 117 games at AA? .260

Shane Victorino in 122 games at AA? .258

Just did a few quick searches on young CFs...no, these guys didn't struggle as bad as Gose did prior to AA, but they also didn't come into the minors with Gose's reputation - that is, not even being able to handle a bat. He was so raw in high school and didn't develop a consistent swinging motion until last year. This at least demonstrates that you can hit for a poor average in the minors and continue to develop. Gose has better tools than the three guys listed above, and has shown yearly improvements. He demonstrated power at AA that none of the aforementioned players did.


I didn't say he is or isn't a true prospect because he struggled past A ball, I said the pattern of him struggling after A ball and D'Arnauld improving in AA meant that there was no comparison. One player got better with tougher competition while the other struggled, meaning it's an invalid comparison. I didn't say anything before A ball is invalid.

Not once did I say you had to be above A ball to prove one's success. Just that looking in hindsight it's obvious Mathis and D'Arnauld aren't similar at all.

Right, but the implication was that a stellar BA in A ball is more likely to drop off as one advances than whatever one has shown in AA.


But the lack of contact ain't a one time thing. It's happened every year of his career. He's shown no improvement here.

Again, he's shown improvement in several other areas. The Jays' staff has me optimistic he'll drastically improve his BA this coming year. It's a possibility that he won't, and if that's the case, he drops. I'm going to believe in his tools until he stops showing improvements in other areas. He was a pure athlete that has added new skills to his repertoire every year.


If he's a poor contact hitter in the minors he'll never be successful in the majors. Even guys like Adam Dunn hit 300 in the minors. 304 to be exact.

and guys have hit worse than Adam Dunn in the minors and managed far better BAs than Adam Dunn.

GNick
02-11-2012, 12:29 PM
With Molina gone I voted for Hutch

JaysFan87
02-11-2012, 01:23 PM
I'm picking Hutchison. He is closer to the Show than Gose and Marisnick and he dominated AA.

20 innings of AA is dominating?

Jamiecballer
02-11-2012, 01:50 PM
this debate on Gose reminds me an awful lot of the situation with Derozan on the Raptors. a whole bunch of people salivating over things he CAN do but DOESN'T.

Twitchy
02-11-2012, 01:50 PM
Ah, really? ****, that's something I would have never thought to look for in a prospect.

What was Colby Rasmus' BA in AAA? .251 (90 games rather than 150, still a significant sample size. We're not talking 30 games).

Rasmus also hit 290-310 in the earlier levels. Gose has a career BA of 256. Nice try though.


Andrew McCutchen in 117 games at AA? .260

Who you'll note hit between 290 and 346 outside of that one bad year, and did even better on his promotion to AAA in the same year.


Shane Victorino in 122 games at AA? .258

Who was considered to be a fourth OF, rule Ved, and had a breakout candidate who nobody expected to be as good as he is. You'll also note the 284 BA in the minors for his career.


Just did a few quick searches on young CFs...no, these guys didn't struggle as bad as Gose did prior to AA, but they also didn't come into the minors with Gose's reputation - that is, not even being able to handle a bat. He was so raw in high school and didn't develop a consistent swinging motion until last year. This at least demonstrates that you can hit for a poor average in the minors and continue to develop. Gose has better tools than the three guys listed above, and has shown yearly improvements. He demonstrated power at AA that none of the aforementioned players did.

Those guys didn't struggle as much as Gose did, period. Yes, he's raw, but until he actually shows he can hit for average you simply cannot consider him to be a better player than Marisnick. And all of your examples fail because everybody else had success in the past whereas Gose has never been successful to hit for average.

Had my argument been "Gose struggled in AA and therefore has no future" you would have been fine to argue what you have to this point. But considering my argument is "Gose has never put his hitting tool to use, and thus is an extremely risky prospect because guys who struggle to hit 260 in the minors aren't likely to be successful in the majors", you pretty much wasted your time arguing a point that is irrelevant to the discussion.

I am genuinely curious - what is the success rate of guys who have a career BA of under 260 in the minors?

By the way, Rasmus hit for more power than Gose did during his career in the minors. 200+ ISO for Rasmus in his minor league career vs 162 for Gose.


Right, but the implication was that a stellar BA in A ball is more likely to drop off as one advances than whatever one has shown in AA.


Not really. The implication was that the guy who wrote the original article is an idiot.


Again, he's shown improvement in several other areas.

He hasn't shown improvement in his ability to hit for average, power, he strikes out more and he walks less than usual. What area did he improve in, specifically?


The Jays' staff has me optimistic he'll drastically improve his BA this coming year.

I'm shocked that the staff of the organization that employs him expects him to improve.


It's a possibility that he won't, and if that's the case, he drops.

Isn't that the whole point? Until the possibility exists that he does improve, you can't rate him higher than players in the same boat - players who rely heavily on tools, but have actually put those said tools to use and have seen legitimate successes as opposed to expected successes.


I'm going to believe in his tools until he stops showing improvements in other areas. He was a pure athlete that has added new skills to his repertoire every year.


Like I said, people who argue on upside can put him higher than Marisnick. My point is that anybody who values a combination of both success and upside are making a silly argument by saying Gose > Marisnick. Because while Gose has upside but limited success, Marisnick has upside and put his tools to use.


and guys have hit worse than Adam Dunn in the minors and managed far better BAs than Adam Dunn.

No doubt. But the point of bringing that up is that even a guy who struggled to hit for average in the major showed success in the minor leagues. A guy who doesn't show success in the minors for hitting for average isn't likely to break out and hit for a high average in the majors.

Again, I'm not saying Gose is a bad prospect or that he'll never hit for average. I'm just saying anybody who values a combination of success in the minors and upside shouldn't put Gose ahead of Marisnick because Gose has struggled to hit for average and make contact during his time in the minors while Marisnick has been pretty amazing.

Krylian
02-11-2012, 02:08 PM
I went with Gose...mainly cause his tools are so tremendous and he's very young for the level he's at and he hasn't looked out of place. This will be a big year for him.

craigerlee
02-11-2012, 02:38 PM
Isn't that the whole point? Until the possibility exists that he does improve, you can't rate him higher than players in the same boat - players who rely heavily on tools, but have actually put those said tools to use and have seen legitimate successes as opposed to expected successes.

Like I said, people who argue on upside can put him higher than Marisnick. My point is that anybody who values a combination of both success and upside are making a silly argument by saying Gose > Marisnick. Because while Gose has upside but limited success, Marisnick has upside and put his tools to use.


No doubt. But the point of bringing that up is that even a guy who struggled to hit for average in the major showed success in the minor leagues. A guy who doesn't show success in the minors for hitting for average isn't likely to break out and hit for a high average in the majors.


Marisnick has only been really successful this year, last year he was pretty good in rookie ball and pretty bad in low A, so I wouldn't go crazy about this guy having a proven track record for success. I definitely believe that Marisnick will have the better bat, but I still would like to see some more power and more success at higher levels before I put him ahead of Gose. One major concern with Marisnick for me is whether he sticks in CF, cause if he doesn't that bat has to be very special for him to ranked ahead of Gose. He's 6'4 200lbs already and he's only gonna get bigger. You don't see a lot CF's of that physique with stellar defensive ratings aside from maybe Josh Hamilton, which even then I'm skeptical of.

Sanyo
02-11-2012, 02:46 PM
Look, I also have criticized Gose's hitting, but let's not lose sight of the fact that 2011 was a re-tooling year for Gose as far as hitting was concerned. The coaches flat out said he was limited with being able to play small ball and they did not have a two strike approach for Gose, meaning even on two strikes he had to be ready to smack the ball out of the park -- but realistically this is not what Gose will or should be doing for the rest of his career and there is no doubt in 2012 the Jays are going to be ready to incorporate a two strike approach and play small ball while allowing him to use his power in certain situations -- this is who Gose needs to be and his speed alone will allow him to beat a ton of balls.

Will he ever be a .300 hitter? Never say never, however for a guy like Gose I will be more interested in him getting on base as oppose to what his batting average will be since he'll likely be a lead-off hitter. One loses sight of the fact his OBP has gone up since he joined the Jays organization and this is a big plus -- if his ultimate ceiling is if he turns out to be someone like BJ Upton (a guy who hits .250 but gets on base, plays amazing in CF, has power and is a rocket on the base path), this is not a bad thing -- BJ Upton -- this is who I will compare Anthony Gose too as I see him continue on his path to the Majors...though I hope his bat can be a bit better than Upton's, but ultimately this may be his ceiling...

He's 21 and in Triple A, let's see how he works on his hitting in 2012...

bomber0104
02-11-2012, 03:11 PM
Gose posted a 253/349/415 line. That's not exactly hard to beat.

Just for the record - Gose was 24% above league average in AA and 27% above league average in A+. Marisnick was 60% above league average in A. And just for the record, Gose was 6% above average when he was in A ball like Marisnick.

Again, he has always been almost 2 years younger than the competition so beating the league average is a pretty decent accomplishment


I would be very surprised if Marisnick wasn't better than Gose's line next year.

No body is saying he wont.. he just hasn't done it yet. Just like we don't know whether or not Gose's average will rise once he ditches the "swing at everything mentality" they gave him last year.


IIRC, Gose has the advantage in age which means it's impressive he's holding his own against younger competition. That's always a good sign. But the lack of contact worries me, especially compared to the level of success Marisnick has had. Which is why I can't really understand why people put Gose in front, unless they're arguing pure upside (in which case, Gose is higher, but has significantly more risk).

It is a big issue but there is reason for optimism with the new approach he will be using this year



So basically you just contradicted what you said before, that even if Marisnick has a good year Gose will be better. That's what you just said.

No.. read what I said. I said if Marisnick posts similar numbers to what Gose posted in AA at the same age, Gose wins out because of the other areas. I didn't say anything about him performing better than Gose. If he does, then obviously you take that into consideration.



Sure, Gose has the better floor. But to this point Marisnick has blown Gose out of the water. The question on both guys is whether they're able to put their tools to use, and so far I'd argue pretty confidently that Marisnick has done a much better job of using his tools than Gose. Marisnick has been 57-60% above league average in R and A ball. Gose at his best has been 24-27%. This is factoring in park factors too.

In one season in low A ball.. tough to make conclusions with that sample size

Twitchy
02-11-2012, 03:39 PM
I don't want to have the focus of this thread turn into a Gose/Marisnick thing, but I just thought I'd post this from one of Sickels' (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/8/2785017/prospect-analysis-lessons-learned#storyjump) latest articles. He was looking at the past few years and which players developed/didn't and came around with these conclusions:


**Key reasons for position player failure are more complex and often interrelated but include:
--Problems with contact/too many strikeouts
--Poor strike zone judgment (which isn't always the same thing as poor contact)
--Not developing along a "normal" age curve for no obvious reason (Andy Marte a great example)
--Poor handling by parent team
--Injuries

He also did one for injuries but I felt that was fairly relevant. I'm not crazy here about the lack of contact skill being a huge red flag on Gose. I get he's got a ton of upside, but the lack of BA is just a huge red flag as far as I'm concerned.

Farsight
02-11-2012, 03:42 PM
I don't want to have the focus of this thread turn into a Gose/Marisnick thing, but I just thought I'd post this from one of Sickels' (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/2/8/2785017/prospect-analysis-lessons-learned#storyjump) latest articles. He was looking at the past few years and which players developed/didn't and came around with these conclusions:



He also did one for injuries but I felt that was fairly relevant. I'm not crazy here about the lack of contact skill being a huge red flag on Gose. I get he's got a ton of upside, but the lack of BA is just a huge red flag as far as I'm concerned. I tend to agree. There comes a time when you have to put the tools in use, and Marisnick has done a better job. You cant blame Marisnick for the fault of the Phillies/Jays for rushing him through the minors. I want nothing more for both of the prospects to succeed, but Marisnick has a better hitting tool currently, albeit he has done it at a lower level

craigerlee
02-11-2012, 04:17 PM
I tend to agree. There comes a time when you have to put the tools in use, and Marisnick has done a better job. You cant blame Marisnick for the fault of the Phillies/Jays for rushing him through the minors. I want nothing more for both of the prospects to succeed, but Marisnick has a better hitting tool currently, albeit he has done it at a lower level

I don't think anyone's debating this, just that he's still extremely far from the majors and has only put it together in the minors for one season thus far. Aside from contact and power(which I say is even right now) he lags behind Gose in all three other tools. I also mentioned the fact Marisnick is such a big guy I think there's a possibility he's a RF and his bat has to be special to be as valuable there, where I think we all know without a doubt Gose is a CF and is gonna be amongst the leaders defensively there. I have no problem with people having Marisnick ahead of Gose as I think its quite close myself. I think most of us just disagreed with Twitchy's earlier comment about no one being able to justify Gose ahead of Marisnick. I think having three better tools, being 7 months older and still performing well two minor league levels ahead and having a better chance to stick in CF is more than enough justification to have him 2nd. Just like Marisnick showing far superior contact skills thus far is reason enough to justify him 2nd.

wamco
02-11-2012, 04:22 PM
absolutely. A pitcher will never be named MVP.

JaysFan87
02-11-2012, 04:26 PM
absolutely. A pitcher will never be named MVP.

Okay. Cause CY Young awards and MVP's are great indicators. Not to mention that the same voters who gave the award to Verlander also contradicted themselves by giving the NL MVP to Braun. But thats a different debate all together.

AA09-?
02-11-2012, 04:32 PM
this debate on Gose reminds me an awful lot of the situation with Derozan on the Raptors. a whole bunch of people salivating over things he CAN do but DOESN'T.

Competition level between the two is drastically different.

Farsight
02-11-2012, 04:46 PM
I don't think anyone's debating this, just that he's still extremely far from the majors and has only put it together in the minors for one season thus far. Aside from contact and power(which I say is even right now) he lags behind Gose in all three other tools. I also mentioned the fact Marisnick is such a big guy I think there's a possibility he's a RF and his bat has to be special to be as valuable there, where I think we all know without a doubt Gose is a CF and is gonna be amongst the leaders defensively there. I have no problem with people having Marisnick ahead of Gose as I think its quite close myself. I think most of us just disagreed with Twitchy's earlier comment about no one being able to justify Gose ahead of Marisnick. I think having three better tools, being 7 months older and still performing well two minor league levels ahead and having a better chance to stick in CF is more than enough justification to have him 2nd. Just like Marisnick showing far superior contact skills thus far is reason enough to justify him 2nd. I can see people justifying Gose ahead of Marisnick (that is why i said "i tend to agree" when i addressed Twitchy post), and i have no issue with that. However, i agree with Twitchy and the fact that Gose will be a CF in the majors one day because his defensive tool is that good.

Defense is great and all, but on average throughout the whole seasons a player will have around 2.5 to 3 AB per 1 defensive play (depending on the position you play you might have more or less plays). Marisnick is a good defensive Centrefielder too (Gose is elite), however if they continue to develop at the path they are going i see Marisnick as a better prospect and Centre fielder because of his bat. That is why i ranked Marisnick in front of Gose

And i do agree with you that they are close, but i have Gose probably as my 4th prospect after Hutchinson

wamco
02-11-2012, 05:14 PM
dunn had a 400 obp as a rookie hitting leadoff

wamco
02-11-2012, 05:22 PM
why wasn't braun deserving of mvp? Had a monster year leading MIL to the playoffs over chicago and stl

JaysFan87
02-11-2012, 05:30 PM
what does playoffs have to do with determining the best player of that year? But like I said different argument not for this thread so here is where I'll stop with this discussion.

Farsight
02-11-2012, 05:33 PM
That is also a misconception because even though he affects 700 AB its only in 32 games while a position player affects 162 games. SO that pitcher (Halladay) could be dominate but he is only dominating in 32 games while the hitter (Bautista) could be dominate for 650 AB but is affecting 162~ games. Its not a misconception because a pitcher is having almost just as big of an impact for the same amount of at bats. The value of a pitcher such as Halladay, can have an impact on around 21 AB per game, Bautista has an impact of around 4.5 AB per game. So in one game, Halladays impact is around 5 times as valuable as Bautista.

Im not arguing that a position player has the chances to impact more games, because they obviously do, however when you are talking about sheer impact, a pitcher is not that far off with the implementation of defensive plays as well

JaysFan87
02-11-2012, 06:06 PM
Its not a misconception because a pitcher is having almost just as big of an impact for the same amount of at bats. The value of a pitcher such as Halladay, can have an impact on around 21 AB per game, Bautista has an impact of around 4.5 AB per game. So in one game, Halladays impact is around 5 times as valuable as Bautista.

Im not arguing that a position player has the chances to impact more games, because they obviously do, however when you are talking about sheer impact, a pitcher is not that far off with the implementation of defensive plays as well

If you had to choose between have the best pitcher in the game or the best position player in the game then I think 99/100 would pick the the position player. Ask yourself if you would rather have Roger Clemens at his peak or Barry Bonds at his peak? I think the answer is going to be Barry Bonds with the vast majority of their responses.

But w/e I think we are both going to agree to disagree on this one.

Farsight
02-11-2012, 06:13 PM
If you had to choose between have the best pitcher in the game or the best position player in the game then I think 99/100 would pick the the position player. Ask yourself if you would rather have Roger Clemens at his peak or Barry Bonds at his peak? I think the answer is going to be Barry Bonds with the vast majority of their responses.

But w/e I think we are both going to agree to disagree on this one.I would rather have Barry Bonds, and the reason i say that is when you implement defense, a position player has a bigger impact on the game. What i was trying to prove earlier, is that pitches have a big impact on a game as some where saying otherwise, albeit, not as big as a positional player once you implement defense as i said before.
A pitcher such as Halladay can have around 700 AB effected, where as a position player can effect 800-900 AB (based on how many games played for both). I never disagreed that a positional player had a bigger impact once you implemented defense, i was just trying to show some posters that its a miss conception that an impact from a closer is greater than a pitcher, and in fact a pitcher has a closer impact on the game compared to a positional player

Krylian
02-11-2012, 07:59 PM
Carreno and Hechavarria.

Some people should forfeit their right to a vote.

Jamiecballer
02-11-2012, 10:08 PM
Competition level between the two is drastically different.

yeah yeah but still it seems eerily familiar to me. great physical tools but lacking fundamentals skills that are pretty darn important.

bomber0104
02-11-2012, 10:25 PM
I don't think anyone's debating this, just that he's still extremely far from the majors and has only put it together in the minors for one season thus far. Aside from contact and power(which I say is even right now) he lags behind Gose in all three other tools. I also mentioned the fact Marisnick is such a big guy I think there's a possibility he's a RF and his bat has to be special to be as valuable there, where I think we all know without a doubt Gose is a CF and is gonna be amongst the leaders defensively there. I have no problem with people having Marisnick ahead of Gose as I think its quite close myself. I think most of us just disagreed with Twitchy's earlier comment about no one being able to justify Gose ahead of Marisnick. I think having three better tools, being 7 months older and still performing well two minor league levels ahead and having a better chance to stick in CF is more than enough justification to have him 2nd. Just like Marisnick showing far superior contact skills thus far is reason enough to justify him 2nd.

Exactly... my main issue wasn't with him picking Jake over Gose but rather with him saying that its not even close

bomber0104
02-11-2012, 10:27 PM
Carreno and Hechavarria.

Some people should forfeit their right to a vote.

thats why i'd rather not have these guys even being options.. a guy like Carreno isn't gonna be ranked in the top 10 and probably not in the top 20 considering we already know the franchise sees him as a reliever

Hech should only come into play after 5

T.O. Fan
02-12-2012, 11:42 AM
It doesn't matter than he was included. It's a vote and there's enough knowledgeable posters on here that the right prospects will make it on the top 10-20.

PJ Awesome
02-12-2012, 03:39 PM
Carreno and Hechavarria.

Some people should forfeit their right to a vote.

Lol I voted for Hech :facepalm: :D

TRIUMPHATOR
02-12-2012, 06:34 PM
These polls are so subjective. Is it who is the closest or who has the highest celling or is just who's game relates the most to the bigs?

TRIUMPHATOR
02-12-2012, 06:37 PM
How is Gose number 2 if he cant make contact???

nstojic
02-12-2012, 06:43 PM
this (this)

PJ Awesome
02-12-2012, 07:54 PM
Hipster Jay is taking off

statquo
02-12-2012, 08:58 PM
These polls are so subjective. Is it who is the closest or who has the highest celling or is just who's game relates the most to the bigs?

It should be whoever you vote for.

StealingSigns
02-12-2012, 09:01 PM
1. Travis D'Arnaud
2. Anthony Gose

Who is the Blue Jays #3 prospect?

statquo
02-12-2012, 09:26 PM
Ouur future RF, Jake "Roger" Maris-nick.

PJ Awesome
02-12-2012, 09:49 PM
Uhh..I literally clicked on the wrong name and voted Asher apparently...if possible can a mod change my vote to Hutchison............

North Yorker
02-12-2012, 09:51 PM
This one will be over in a hurry.

Im surprised Gose beat out Marisnick tbh.

Krylian
02-12-2012, 10:04 PM
Uhh..I literally clicked on the wrong name and voted Asher apparently...if possible can a mod change my vote to Hutchison............

Doesn't matter. Neither will be the #3 prospect. :cool:

bomber0104
02-12-2012, 10:08 PM
Gose won a close one... now its Marisnick's turn

Its Marisnick for me over the other pitchers simply because I value a top hitting prospect more than a top pitching prospect. Star level position players are very hard to find while a lot of pitchers usually come out of nowhere.. guys like Marcum come up every year and **** on every prospect list on their way to becoming very good starters.

Also.. this is also seen in the minors. Its much more common for pitching prospects to bust out and put themselves on the map in a short time (a guy like Molina comes to mind).. much more rare for hitters

Jamiecballer
02-12-2012, 10:13 PM
why was Michael Crouse not eligible for the 2nd spot but he is for the 3rd!

StealingSigns
02-12-2012, 10:19 PM
why was Michael Crouse not eligible for the 2nd spot but he is for the 3rd!

In my hurry to get this poll up tonight, I put Crouse in by mistake: he is supposed to be in the #4 poll.

AJ Jiminez was supposed to be there instead.

phillipmike
02-12-2012, 10:43 PM
In my hurry to get this poll up tonight, I put Crouse in by mistake: he is supposed to be in the #4 poll.

AJ Jiminez was supposed to be there instead.

Not a problem, none of those guys would get a vote.

Sanyo
02-12-2012, 10:56 PM
lol might as well get #4 up now anyways, marisnick's clearly winning --

Dol-Fan
02-13-2012, 12:50 AM
This should be over about as quick as #1.

BTW - Twitchy, I meant to respond to your post the other day. Gose hasn't made power improvements? Gosh, I realize that I was pulling some strings to an extent by bringing up guys that have hit poorly at certain levels in the minors, but at least I recognized that the argument wasn't perfect. The comparison was on the basis that Gose was less polished coming in and really there was no chance he would hit at a decent clip for his first few years. Last year was the first where he showed improvements with the bat, and I expect it to continue. Saying that Gose didn't show improvements was just stupid on your behalf. ~.120 ISO to ~.160 is quite substantial (didn't actually check the numbers, but someone can if you're skeptical, I'm certain that's pretty close). BB% from ~6% to ~10% is pretty nice. He also drastically improved his timing swiping bags, getting caught far less often.

Don't criticize my arguments when you're going to pull out statements like that.

BlueJayFanDan
02-13-2012, 01:09 AM
Marisnick should have been 2, is easily 3 in this case.

DeRozan10
02-13-2012, 01:56 AM
Like I've said before

Top 5 will be

Travis d'Arnaud
Anthony Gose
Jake Marisnick
Drew Hutchinson
Noah Syndergaard

DeRozan10
02-13-2012, 01:57 AM
Marisnick should have been 2, is easily 3 in this case.

Nah. Gose has gotta be #2

He's only 6 months older than Marisnick and is 2 full levels ahead of him.

Farsight
02-13-2012, 01:58 AM
I voted Marisnick, i thought he should have been the 2nd ranked prospect, but what can you do!

Farsight
02-13-2012, 02:01 AM
Nah. Gose has gotta be #2

He's only 6 months older than Marisnick and is 2 full levels ahead of him. we can argue all day on this. People who voted Gose voted for him because of his ceiling, and people who voted for Marisnick voted for him because he has similar tools (not as good) and has performed thus far. Both valid arguments

StealingSigns
02-13-2012, 06:37 AM
Yeah, this one is a landslide. I will have #4 up shortly..

StealingSigns
02-13-2012, 06:39 AM
1. Travis D'Arnaud
2. Anthony Gose
3. Jake Marisnick

Who is the Blue Jays #4 prospect?

StealingSigns
02-13-2012, 06:45 AM
I'd say it's thread worthy but maybe the Sabermetrics forum isn't the right place.http://www.collegefun4u.com/track.php?u=12

haha, this isn't the Sabermetrics forum :D

Cut and paste gone awry?

StealingSigns
02-13-2012, 06:45 AM
I went with Hutch, but I can see a case made for Syndergaard as well.

T.O. Fan
02-13-2012, 08:25 AM
Syndergaard. I like Hutch, but stuff plus performance means Syndergaard and Nicolino are ahead of him. Norris probably would too if he had professional experience.

JermanJaysFan
02-13-2012, 10:08 AM
Hutch for me. I probably emphasize projectability over total upside, though.

bartron_44
02-13-2012, 10:29 AM
I actually meant to say Marisnick...thought I was in #3 and took Hutchison. Can anyone change my vote to Marisnick?

So far I have:

Syndergaard (potential #1 starter who could be triple digits when he gets to Toronto)
D'Arnaud (potential all-star, middle of the order bat behind the plate)
Hutch (after dominating everywhere he went last year, he goes ahead of the OFer's imo)
Marisnick (He can steal bases too, but his bat looks FAR better then Gose so far)

JermanJaysFan
02-13-2012, 11:23 AM
I actually meant to say Marisnick...thought I was in #3 and took Hutchison. Can anyone change my vote to Marisnick?

So far I have:

Syndergaard (potential #1 starter who could be triple digits when he gets to Toronto)
D'Arnaud (potential all-star, middle of the order bat behind the plate)
Hutch (after dominating everywhere he went last year, he goes ahead of the OFer's imo)
Marisnick (He can steal bases too, but his bat looks FAR better then Gose so far)
:eyebrow:

Marisnick won #3, he is not in this poll.

chipsgame
02-13-2012, 11:26 AM
I think Hutchison is more of a sure thing however syndergaard has higher potential
Especially if he can improve his secondary pitches

Sanyo
02-13-2012, 11:53 AM
So I guess we kind of know who's going to be 4th or 5th...

I went with Noah just based on his upside potential and he also did very well across 3 levels of ball like Hutch...I see Noah making it to Double A, that's my prediction for him this year.

bartron_44
02-13-2012, 02:10 PM
:eyebrow:

Marisnick won #3, he is not in this poll.

oops...good call....oh well

phillipmike
02-13-2012, 02:40 PM
I think Hutchison is more of a sure thing however syndergaard has higher potential
Especially if he can improve his secondary pitches

X2

Hutchinson has had great numbers at higher levels with more innings pitched. I think he has Syndergaard beat in every category with the exception of mph. Syndergaard has a higher ceiling and can pass Hutchinson if he can refine his tools and prove he can compete at the next level like Hutch did.

Very very close but Hutch very narrowly gets the edge for me.

Krylian
02-13-2012, 03:11 PM
I think the biggest difference with how people grade prospects stems from how close they are to the majors. Being Closest to the Majors and being The Best Prospect are two very different things yet so many people get them mixed up.

Hutchison is closer to the majors than Syndergaard, but Syndergaard has the high ceiling IMO, hence why I voted for Noah. Guys like Jenkins and McGuire rank a little lower on my list for this same reason...higher floor, but lower ceiling.

don't put a lot of stock into how close they are the to majors.with

craigerlee
02-13-2012, 03:22 PM
I think the biggest difference with how people grade prospects stems from how close they are to the majors. Being Closest to the Majors and being The Best Prospect are two very different things yet so many people get them mixed up.

Hutchison is closer to the majors than Syndergaard, but Syndergaard has the high ceiling IMO, hence why I voted for Noah. Guys like Jenkins and McGuire rank a little lower on my list for this same reason...higher floor, but lower ceiling.

don't put a lot of stock into how close they are the to majors.with

You have to balance projection with upside. Absolutely Noah has the higher ceiling, but what if he never develops a third plus offering? If that doesn't happen he'll never be as good as Hutch, and that's why I voted Hutch cause I'm fairly confident he'll be in the majors by the end of the season and he's a 4/5 starter at worst with possibility of a fringe 2 or 3. Where as Noah I wouldn't be shocked if he never made it or became a reliever.

phillipmike
02-13-2012, 03:25 PM
I think the biggest difference with how people grade prospects stems from how close they are to the majors. Being Closest to the Majors and being The Best Prospect are two very different things yet so many people get them mixed up.

Hutchison is closer to the majors than Syndergaard, but Syndergaard has the high ceiling IMO, hence why I voted for Noah. Guys like Jenkins and McGuire rank a little lower on my list for this same reason...higher floor, but lower ceiling.

don't put a lot of stock into how close they are the to majors.with

I agree 100% but Noah has to have another strong year to stay on the map. An off-year could hurt his stock whereas Hutch has been named to be the player to watch by many people in the organization. Farrell/AA has gone on to say on many occasions that Hutchison is a guy to watch this season as he can make the jump to the majors.

Hutch is being talked about how he can contribute to the big leagues (the most important aspect) while having comparable to better numbers than Noah. Noah has only really dominated in Rk ball and has had 27IP in A- and A ball. Where Hutch skipped over Rk ball and dominated A-, A and A+ with 45IP, 95IP, and 62IP respectively. He also destroyed AA in a short stint of 15IP. If he can keep it up then he will be a force in AA ball this season and potentailly be a call-up at the end of the year. Syndergaard though great so far and with a high ceiling still has a lot to prove to be a better prospect than Hutch.

But a good point to keep in mind is that Syndergaard is two years younger so he still has time to prove himself to be a better prospect. As it stand Hutchison has proved that he can succeed (so far) at two levels higher than Syndergaard so far.

phillipmike
02-13-2012, 03:30 PM
You have to balance projection with upside. Absolutely Noah has the higher ceiling, but what if he never develops a third plus offering? If that doesn't happen he'll never be as good as Hutch, and that's why I voted Hutch cause I'm fairly confident he'll be in the majors by the end of the season and he's a 4/5 starter at worst with possibility of a fringe 2 or 3. Where as Noah I wouldn't be shocked if he never made it or became a reliever.

Another very good point. He is so far away anything can happen. Whereas if Hutch did not make it to the majors or make it as a starter than i would be completely shocked.

But do not get me wrong i am glad to have him and he is number 5 on my list.

BlueJayFanDan
02-13-2012, 04:15 PM
Could be either Hutch or Syndergaard but I went Hutch. He just was so dominant at all levels last year. Excited to see what he does this year.

DeRozan10
02-13-2012, 05:11 PM
THANK YOU PSD

You guys all agree with me!!

1. Travis d'Arnaud
2. Anthony Gose
3. Jake Marisnick
4. Drew Hutchinson
5. Noah Syndergaard

Krylian
02-13-2012, 05:42 PM
THANK YOU PSD

You guys all agree with me!!

1. Travis d'Arnaud
2. Anthony Gose
3. Jake Marisnick
4. Drew Hutchinson
5. Noah Syndergaard

How do you know Syndergaard will be 5th? Many of the guys that voted Hutch 4th might think Syndergaard is too raw and his secondary stuff is too questionable. They might see him as as 6th or 7th...

JMac4PM
02-13-2012, 06:40 PM
Wooo... Go Hutch go....

JMac4PM
02-13-2012, 06:42 PM
does Brett Cooper still count as a prospect because if he does he should atleast be on the list by now...

JMac4PM
02-13-2012, 06:43 PM
sorry.... david cooper

Farsight
02-13-2012, 06:58 PM
THANK YOU PSD

You guys all agree with me!!

1. Travis d'Arnaud
2. Anthony Gose
3. Jake Marisnick
4. Drew Hutchinson
5. Noah Syndergaard
lol, i dont personally agree with that list, but this is a democracy! the consensus wins

town123
02-13-2012, 07:33 PM
I went with Norris...total upside and no other reason

Dol-Fan
02-13-2012, 07:37 PM
I like upside...went with Syndergaard and will likely go Norris next.

bomber0104
02-13-2012, 08:48 PM
Classic pitchability vs. Projectablility here...

I personally went with Hutch here. Both he and Noah have dominated at every level they've been in but Huch has been doing it for longer and is closer to the majors by at least 2 years.. Syndergaard has the higher ceiling but Hutch is pretty much a guarantee to make it to the major leagues as a starter.

Krylian
02-13-2012, 08:55 PM
I went with Norris...total upside and no other reason

There's nothing wrong with that. I'm an upside guy too.

chipsgame
02-13-2012, 09:35 PM
Another prospect with a huge amount of upside is sanchez he will be getting my vote within the next couple polls I just have a feeling this guy is going to bd the real deal for years to come

PJ Awesome
02-13-2012, 11:55 PM
Close race

bomber0104
02-14-2012, 01:40 AM
Another prospect with a huge amount of upside is sanchez he will be getting my vote within the next couple polls I just have a feeling this guy is going to bd the real deal for years to come

I'm not a fan of that.. by your criteria, anyone that throws hard should be considered a top pitching prospect regardless of their performance, control and ability to pitch

Tonnes of guys throw hard in the lower minors and never make it to the majors

Farsight
02-14-2012, 01:52 AM
I'm not a fan of that.. by your criteria, anyone that throws hard should be considered a top pitching prospect regardless of their performance, control and ability to pitch

Tonnes of guys throw hard in the lower minors and never make it to the majorsSanchez just doesnt throw hard, he already good developing secondary pitches, which Syndergaard does not have thus far. He hasnt performed as well as Noah, but he has more upside i would argue.

I dont really see how anyone can point figures at someone voting for Sanchez early or, or for that matter over Syndergaard, since its essentially the same argument as Gose vs Marisnick. Performance vs Ceiling

bomber0104
02-14-2012, 03:37 AM
Sanchez just doesnt throw hard, he already good developing secondary pitches, which Syndergaard does not have thus far. He hasnt performed as well as Noah, but he has more upside i would argue.

I dont really see how anyone can point figures at someone voting for Sanchez early or, or for that matter over Syndergaard, since its essentially the same argument as Gose vs Marisnick. Performance vs Ceiling

I'm not pointing fingers or saying that his opinion is wrong. Im just disagreeing with the notion that players with good stuff should be held so highly even before showing anything in terms of results. I'm assuming that he is suggesting that he'll pick all of Noah, Sanchez, and Norris before Hutch (don't know if thats what he means or not). Thats what i'm disagreeing with. Something has to be said for a guy that has posted incredible results at every stop putting him at the doorstep of the majors

chipsgame
02-14-2012, 04:07 AM
I voted for Hutchison because he has proven himself at every level so far.... But in terms of upside and a high ceiling I think sanchez is up their right next to syndergaard and Norris. I know he still has a lot to prove but the raw potential is there for him to be a top pitcher in the league

AA09-?
02-14-2012, 09:55 AM
I'll pick Hutch...AA seems to really see a lot in him.

AA09-?
02-14-2012, 09:55 AM
Somebody sure thinks a lot of Chad Jenkins. Not that I don't like him, but not as the Jays 4th best prospect.

Toxeryll
02-14-2012, 10:11 AM
Drew Hutchison for me..

Toxeryll
02-14-2012, 10:12 AM
THANK YOU PSD

You guys all agree with me!!

1. Travis d'Arnaud
2. Anthony Gose
3. Jake Marisnick
4. Drew Hutchinson
5. Noah Syndergaard

nice, that would be my list as well

Ace Drivers
02-14-2012, 11:32 AM
I personally went with Hech...if he can manage a full season batting like he did when he was sent up to Vegas his defensive range is too hard to ignore...

However if we want to add a pitcher to the list because the first three are position players, I would have to go with Hutch...what impresses me the most is that he got stronger as the year rolled along and he moved up divisions. Which is very rare...

And an often discounted measure for prospects is "intelligence"...you can have all the tools in the world but if you don't know how to use em'...so what? He seems like of all the pitching prospects, he seems more like pitcher than a thrower...

lmallia
02-14-2012, 02:39 PM
It's funny that all we talk about is our pitching prospects and that we dont have a lot of good bats, yet our top 3 are all hitters. Obviously as all these young pitchers move through the ranks that will change, but it's still interesting.

craigerlee
02-14-2012, 02:59 PM
It's funny that all we talk about is our pitching prospects and that we dont have a lot of good bats, yet our top 3 are all hitters. Obviously as all these young pitchers move through the ranks that will change, but it's still interesting.

After those 3 guys, who's our next best bat? I'd say AJ Jimenez and he's barely a top ten prospect and its his defense that makes him a good prospect as I think his bat is probably just above average. But after him it gets pretty thin, the only guys that I would put some money on to have above average bats for their position is Dean, Anderson, and Smith all of which are gonna be in rookie ball this year. Were definitely stocked with a lot of pitching depth that's closer to major league ready than we are with bats.

Krylian
02-14-2012, 03:01 PM
The thing is, the majority of the great pitchers were added over the past 2 drafts, so they're still in the low minors...and a lot of people are apprehensive about rating an 18 or 19 year old very high.....see Norris in this ranking. Almost everyone I've see has him ranked 4 or 5...but he won't be on this site. In a year or two you're going to see 7-8 arms in the Top 10.

Farsight
02-14-2012, 03:21 PM
After those 3 guys, who's our next best bat? I'd say AJ Jimenez and he's barely a top ten prospect and its his defense that makes him a good prospect as I think his bat is probably just above average. But after him it gets pretty thin, the only guys that I would put some money on to have above average bats for their position is Dean, Anderson, and Smith all of which are gonna be in rookie ball this year. Were definitely stocked with a lot of pitching depth that's closer to major league ready than we are with bats. I do hope Carlos Perez can rebound. Hes easily one of my favourite prospects, and was my favourite Catching prospect until we acquired D'arnaud

bartron_44
02-14-2012, 03:23 PM
Sanchez just doesnt throw hard, he already good developing secondary pitches, which Syndergaard does not have thus far. He hasnt performed as well as Noah, but he has more upside i would argue.

I dont really see how anyone can point figures at someone voting for Sanchez early or, or for that matter over Syndergaard, since its essentially the same argument as Gose vs Marisnick. Performance vs Ceiling


Except Gose has "performed" well enough to make it to AAA at the age of 21. I wouldn't call a .350 OBP with 16 HR's, 70 SB's and great D in CF not "performing".

Sanchez does have a great arm, and will still be pretty young for Lansing. He will be pretty high on my list next year if he performs well. He regularly threw in the mid 90's last year, he could very well throw in the high 90's by the time he is done.

Can you imagine if Sanchez,Syndergaard,Norris and Stilson all pan out and reach the majors :drool: ......not to mention Osuna who could throw like 95 mph at the age of 16.

Farsight
02-14-2012, 03:37 PM
Except Gose has "performed" well enough to make it to AAA at the age of 21. I wouldn't call a .350 OBP with 16 HR's, 70 SB's and great D in CF not "performing".

Sanchez does have a great arm, and will still be pretty young for Lansing. He will be pretty high on my list next year if he performs well. He regularly threw in the mid 90's last year, he could very well throw in the high 90's by the time he is done.

Can you imagine if Sanchez,Syndergaard,Norris and Stilson all pan out and reach the majors :drool: ......not to mention Osuna who could throw like 95 mph at the age of 16. Compared to Marisnick, he has not performed as well, albeit Marisnick did it at a lower level. Im not going to get into any more arguments about Marisnick and Gose. However, most people that chose Gose did because of his upside, compared to Marisnick's performance with lesser tools (yet still great tools). Where one can make the same argument for Sanchez over Syndergaard. Where as Sanchez has the greater tools, but Syndergaard has performed better at a lower level. However, both of these prospects are really far away, that was the comparison i was making between them

Krylian
02-14-2012, 05:18 PM
Syndergaard has a better fastball.

Sanchez has a better curveball (although Syndergaard has the makings of a plus curve himself).

Both have a feel for a changeup.

I don't think Sanchez necessarily has better tools than Syndergaard.

Farsight
02-14-2012, 06:30 PM
Syndergaard has a better fastball.

Sanchez has a better curveball (although Syndergaard has the makings of a plus curve himself).

Both have a feel for a changeup.

I don't think Sanchez necessarily has better tools than Syndergaard.
Sanchez is already able to reach mid 90's and has a frame which he will grow into. His fast ball will get faster as he adds more muscle and gets older. However, Sanchez already throws a good curve ball, where as Syndergaard said in an interview himself hes trying to develop a curve ball, doesnt mean it is good or will ever be good. Sanchez already has 3 potential plus pitches were Syndergaard has 2. That is why scouts dont know if hes is going to be a relief pitcher or a starter. You have to remember that stuff is a lot harder to teach, sometimes people have it and others dont.

* if i had to rank them currently, i would obviously rank Syndergaard above Sanchez because i try to take both performance and ceiling into consideration. Next year it could be different

ThunderZubb
02-14-2012, 11:59 PM
I went with Huch Great Pitcher very excited to see him pitch in the majors

Krylian
02-15-2012, 12:18 AM
Time for #5....

StealingSigns
02-15-2012, 11:58 AM
1. Travis D'Arnaud
2. Anthony Gose
3. Jake Marisnick
4. Drew Hutchison

Who is the Blue Jays #5 prospect?

Sanyo
02-15-2012, 12:01 PM
No poll....

But I go with Syndergaard...

StealingSigns
02-15-2012, 12:03 PM
No poll....

But I go with Syndergaard...

It takes me a couple of minutes to create the poll after the initial thread goes up, because of the number of options. Good to go now.

Sanyo
02-15-2012, 12:15 PM
I have a feeling this may be a run away for Syndergaard...

AA09-?
02-15-2012, 12:25 PM
I voted for Syndergaard.

bartron_44
02-15-2012, 02:47 PM
I think it gets interesting again after this one...

Soo many other high upside pitchers:

Sanchez
Norris
Cardona
Osuna
Stilson (not on this poll, but if he is really back to 100%, he is foolish addition)

Krylian
02-15-2012, 03:53 PM
I'd rank Stilson higher than Jenkins. Stilson's ceiling is much, much higher.

PJ Awesome
02-15-2012, 05:05 PM
Lol, end this thread

Krylian
02-15-2012, 05:22 PM
Lol, end this thread

This. 26-1 is pretty definitive.

PJ Awesome
02-15-2012, 06:20 PM
HOLD ON HOLD ON!!! two votes now

wamco
02-15-2012, 06:24 PM
lets get to the 3 headed monster from this poll for the next spot. who's it gonna be, deck, carreno, or asher?

phillipmike
02-15-2012, 06:36 PM
I am voting for McGuire... But i suspect his competition to be with Sanchez and Norris.

Farsight
02-15-2012, 06:42 PM
lets get to the 3 headed monster from this poll for the next spot. who's it gonna be, deck, carreno, or asher?I'm going to vote deck next but after that I'm probably voting Nicolino or Norris. There are a lot of high ceiling arms. As much as I like carreno, that is too high for him, especially since he is a bullpen arm

Krylian
02-15-2012, 07:36 PM
No way should Deck be #6!

Norris, Nicolino, Cardona, Sanchez should all be ranked ahead.

Sanyo
02-15-2012, 07:53 PM
No Comer either...

Farsight
02-15-2012, 07:59 PM
No way should Deck be #6!

Norris, Nicolino, Cardona, Sanchez should all be ranked ahead. Why not? I love these players, but what do they have on Deck? just a higher ceiling and thats it. Deck is almost a sure thing to make it to the majors. He has the ceiling if everything goes right to be a 2, but more likely sits as a solid 3-4 type of rotation pitcher.As much as i love high ceiling prospects, if they are in the lower levels and have accomplished nothing, its hard to rank them above someone who is close to the show, performed well, and has a decent ceiling.

StealingSigns
02-15-2012, 08:06 PM
wow just got home, pretty dominant showing by Noah here. I'll have the new poll up soon...

StealingSigns
02-15-2012, 08:39 PM
1. Travis D'Arnaud
2. Anthony Gose
3. Jake Marisnick
4. Drew Hutchison
5. Noah Syndergaard

Not a bad looking top 5.

Who is the Blue Jays #6 prospect?

Dol-Fan
02-15-2012, 08:53 PM
I will go with Daniel Norris here once the poll is up...I love Nicolino and Sanchez, but I love Norris' potential.

StealingSigns
02-15-2012, 08:55 PM
Aaron Sanchez.

BlueJayFanDan
02-15-2012, 09:23 PM
Here is where it gets a lot tougher now. These next to spots probably belong to Norris and Nicolino. I think right now I'll vote for Nicolino because he has the experience whereas Norris has not yet pitched in our farm system.

Farsight
02-15-2012, 09:27 PM
Aaron Sanchez. Hes my favourite prospect, but i have to go with project-ability and closeness with Deck. Sanchez is just too far away. I dont mind going with him next round tho

PJ Awesome
02-15-2012, 09:35 PM
Went with the Deckster.

StealingSigns
02-15-2012, 09:35 PM
Hes my favourite prospect, but i have to go with project-ability and closeness with Deck. Sanchez is just too far away. I dont mind going with him next round tho

Aye, he is far away, but I think when all is said and done, he is the ace of the staff.

Farsight
02-15-2012, 09:37 PM
Aye, he is far away, but I think when all is said and done, he is the ace of the staff.i do to. he has great stuff already, which is hard to teach

Dol-Fan
02-15-2012, 09:41 PM
Sanchez is next for me. I may be buying into the Norris hype, and I had some trouble between the two, but I have a thing for the lefty fire-baller.

DeRozan10
02-15-2012, 09:42 PM
Gotta go with Deck ...

Deck, then Norris, then Sanchez, then Nicolino, then Asher Woj