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Krylian
02-06-2012, 06:01 PM
I know it's not until June but I'm starting to see a lot of mock drafts, Top 50, 100, 200 lists being published.

This will be a weak College class but some very talented high schoolers are available. Will be interesting to see how things play out with the new rules in place.

The 3 guys I have by eye on the most right now are

Stryker Trahan - C
Carlos Correa - SS
David Dahl - OF

Each have a shot at being around when the Jays pick.

DeRozan10
02-06-2012, 06:08 PM
I know we have a ton of arms in the minors, but I would love the Jays to use this draft to keep stockin up that depth

WestBucsFan
02-06-2012, 06:49 PM
I too am pumped and looking at possible players the Jays may target! Here is a list of players that I think would entice AA and Tinnish to take a look....

1. Gavin Cecchini SS- Top ranked SS on the board by BA at #16

2. Carlos Correa SS- Tall and athletic with some pop- BA has him ranked #17

3. Steven Piscotty 3B/1b- College corner player with power bat, could be 1B of future #18

4. Jake Barrett RHP- Former Jays draft pick that went to college and developed like they thought #19

5. Trey Williams 3B- Loads of power and raw tools, BA has him ranked #27

6. Mike Wacha RHP- Texas A&M righty ranked #23

7. Hunter Virant LHP- Ranked #40, considered a tough sign

8. Ty Hensley RHP- 6'5" Oklahoma power righty also considered a tough sign

9. Lew Brinson- 6'4" OF that is considered very athletic and could develop into a 5 tool athlete

10. Mitchell Traver RHP- one of my fav's 6'7" righty that is a bit of a wildcard, lots of power stuff but still quite raw.

Thats my list of hopefull targets in the upcoming draft for the first and sandwich rounds, where the Jays have 5 picks. I think they should spread the wealth and grab some more arms while continuing last years pattern of grabbing some bats as well.

torontosports10
02-06-2012, 06:52 PM
If last 2 years shows anything then teams (and the Jays) will load up on arms early, so some of these guys (position players) should be available when we pick.

Would like to see us take an SS

Billyen
02-06-2012, 07:39 PM
Just to confirm. The over slot stuff is done this draft? Not next?
So in June with the 5 picks we have...we need to be careful on the signing bonuses?

Everything I read says people aren't clear on the spreading of money...either am I. The main question is...if we have more picks than other teams, do we have a bigger budget to sign them or do we have to sign them for less?

DeRozan10
02-06-2012, 07:47 PM
Keep loading up on ARMS

Can never have enough.

Sanyo
02-06-2012, 07:55 PM
AA loads up on the arms cause young pitchers bring back a ton of good quality players back (we saw it with Gio, Latos and Pineda). SS and 2B are always the biggest wild card, many of them end up being below average hitters and get too big to become effective at those positions.

WestBucsFan
02-06-2012, 08:19 PM
The time will come whether its this deadline or next offseason when some of these young arms will be dealt for a proven player that will help now, I agree they are smart gathering as many P's as possible.

phillipmike
02-06-2012, 08:27 PM
My List...

Jake Barrett - RHP

The Jays picked him in the 3rd round in 2009 but did not sign him as he was set on going ASU. He can be a good 2/3 starter or a potential closer. If the Jays pick him expect them to try him as a starter first. He has the ability to throw in the upper 90's but many dont know if he can do it consistently as a starter.

Kenny Diekroeger - SS

The Rays picked him in the 2nd round in 2009 but they did not sign him either. Only reason i like him is because the Rays picked him and they have a great eye for talent. He does not have any glaring holes be he is going to be 22 so he does not have an enormous ceiling.

Joey Gallo - 1B/3B

He is a power hitting first basemen. He used to be a pitcher and has a great arm and awesome athleticism where some scouts believe that he can play a more premium position but i think he is a 1B. He is a high school bat so he does have uncertainty but the only sure thing on him is is power.

Matthew Smoral - LHP

He is 6'8 220 pounds. He is a lefty and is ONLY 18 years old out of high school. He is very raw but probably has the highest ceiling in the draft.

Michael Wacha - RHP

A big 6'6 pitcher out of A&M and is likely a very safe pick. I see him as a McGuire with more upside - any team that picks him may have him in their rotation in under 2 years. Scouts see him as a durable Jon Garland. I think he will be gone before the Jays pick.

Nick Williams - OF

Every Draft class has a number of raw, toolsy high school players, the high-risk, high-reward types that some teams love. Williams fits that mold perfectly. He is what Marisnick was for us when we picked him in 2010. Williams is an athlete with a great arm, he is 19 years old and his a high ceiling too.

There are some very good pitching talent in this draft. As always the Jays should be taking the BPA and if that results in taking 50 pitchers then so be it. Never take on positional need - so i expect AA to take a lot of high school players with high potential. Also expect him to take arms early and often.

I probably said what people already know.

Krylian
02-07-2012, 01:29 AM
My List...

Jake Barrett - RHP

The Jays picked him in the 3rd round in 2009 but did not sign him as he was set on going ASU. He can be a good 2/3 starter or a potential closer. If the Jays pick him expect them to try him as a starter first. He has the ability to throw in the upper 90's but many dont know if he can do it consistently as a starter.

Kenny Diekroeger - SS

The Rays picked him in the 2nd round in 2009 but they did not sign him either. Only reason i like him is because the Rays picked him and they have a great eye for talent. He does not have any glaring holes be he is going to be 22 so he does not have an enormous ceiling.

Joey Gallo - 1B/3B

He is a power hitting first basemen. He used to be a pitcher and has a great arm and awesome athleticism where some scouts believe that he can play a more premium position but i think he is a 1B. He is a high school bat so he does have uncertainty but the only sure thing on him is is power.

Matthew Smoral - LHP

He is 6'8 220 pounds. He is a lefty and is ONLY 18 years old out of high school. He is very raw but probably has the highest ceiling in the draft.

Michael Wacha - RHP

A big 6'6 pitcher out of A&M and is likely a very safe pick. I see him as a McGuire with more upside - any team that picks him may have him in their rotation in under 2 years. Scouts see him as a durable Jon Garland. I think he will be gone before the Jays pick.

Nick Williams - OF

Every Draft class has a number of raw, toolsy high school players, the high-risk, high-reward types that some teams love. Williams fits that mold perfectly. He is what Marisnick was for us when we picked him in 2010. Williams is an athlete with a great arm, he is 19 years old and his a high ceiling too.

There are some very good pitching talent in this draft. As always the Jays should be taking the BPA and if that results in taking 50 pitchers then so be it. Never take on positional need - so i expect AA to take a lot of high school players with high potential. Also expect him to take arms early and often.

I probably said what people already know.

Gallo is still a pitcher. Went up against Giolito yesterday and was sitting 93-95. I think he'll be drafted as a 1B though.

Krylian
02-07-2012, 01:33 AM
Just to confirm. The over slot stuff is done this draft? Not next?
So in June with the 5 picks we have...we need to be careful on the signing bonuses?

Everything I read says people aren't clear on the spreading of money...either am I. The main question is...if we have more picks than other teams, do we have a bigger budget to sign them or do we have to sign them for less?

It's this draft that the slots go into effect.

Each pick in the first 10 rounds has a slot $ amount attached to it. Add them up and that's the budget for the draft. So yes, the Jays will have a higher budget than teams with less picks. I think I read somewhere that because the Angels signed Pujols, Wilson, can't remember who else, they basically have a $1.7M draft budget to work with.

StealingSigns
02-07-2012, 01:51 AM
Here is the breakdown on the draft...


Draft Pick Compensation:

There are no longer ranked free agents under the new CBA. Type As, Type Bs and the Elias system are history.
"Only players who have been with their clubs for the entire season will be subject to compensation," according to the CBA.
Free agents will cost compensatory draft picks if their former clubs offer guaranteed one-year deals with an average salary that matches or exceeds the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the previous season. The offer "must be made at the end of the five-day free agent “quiet period,” and the player will have seven days to accept," according to the CBA.
Teams that sign players who have been offered these lucrative one-year salaries will surrender their first round draft choice. However, teams with top-ten picks will give up their second-highest pick instead.
Here are the details on changes for Type A free agents this offseason.
Going forward, It appears possible that teams will still obtain two picks for losing free agents after offering arbitration. The signing team forfeits one of its top selections and the club obtains a selection at the end of the first round.

Amateur Draft Spending Limitations:

The sides added heavy restrictions on draft spending. Each club has a spending limit for the amateur draft that varies depending on when the club is scheduled to make its first ten selections. Bonuses after the tenth round don't count, as long as they're under $100K. Teams will face limits in the $4.5-11.5MM range, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).
Teams that spend more than 5% over-slot on the draft will face a 75% tax. Teams that go over slot by 5-10% face a 75% tax and the loss of a first rounder. Teams that go over slot by 10-15% face a 100% tax and the loss of a first and second rounder. Teams that exceed slot by 15% or more face a 100% tax and the loss of first rounders in the next two drafts. This set of rules will also reduce draft spending significantly, a bonus for owners.
There will be no more MLB deals for draft picks.
The draft signing deadline moves to the July 12-18 range from August 15th (the precise date will depend on the date of the All-Star Game).
Proceeds from the tax will go to clubs that did not over-spend via revenue sharing. Forfeited picks go to clubs "through a lottery in which a club’s odds of winning will be based on its prior season’s winning percentage and its prior season’s revenue," according to the CBA.



As per the website which cannot be named...

BlueJayFanDan
02-07-2012, 03:03 AM
Definitely on the Gallo bandwagon with one of our first 2 picks. Hoping for another pitcher with the other pick. Can never have enough good pitchers.

Billyen
02-07-2012, 08:42 AM
It's this draft that the slots go into effect.

Each pick in the first 10 rounds has a slot $ amount attached to it. Add them up and that's the budget for the draft. So yes, the Jays will have a higher budget than teams with less picks. I think I read somewhere that because the Angels signed Pujols, Wilson, can't remember who else, they basically have a $1.7M draft budget to work with.

Thanks guys.

Anyone want to guess the Jays budget? Maybe there's a list of all the teams budgets. That would be cool.

StealingSigns
02-07-2012, 09:49 AM
Thanks guys.

Anyone want to guess the Jays budget? Maybe there's a list of all the teams budgets. That would be cool.

The breakdown is a little foggy still, but if i had to venture a guess, the Jays will be one of those teams to spend up to the 5% over the cap, and pay the 75% luxury tax. It would take a very special draft class for AA to cough up picks in a subsequent draft, methinks...

Krylian
02-07-2012, 11:16 AM
My guess is somewhere in the $10M range for the first 10 rounds. After that, round 11-40 has a cap of $100k per player.

nstojic
02-07-2012, 01:26 PM
Sickels (Sickels) gives his 1-5 high school specs for 2012 draft

Krylian
02-07-2012, 02:29 PM
I've been reading that Trey Williams is dropping. I'd love to draft him and he might be available in the sandwich round.


Bryan Buxton has to be in that Top 5.

phillipmike
02-07-2012, 03:43 PM
The new draft CBA rules are incredibly stupid.

phillipmike
02-07-2012, 03:44 PM
Incredibly stupid!!!

Krylian
02-07-2012, 05:12 PM
Maybe...but they're the same for everyone.

One good thing is that teams that buy the big time FA's will be hammered in the draft, so they can't double dip. For example, The Angels will have something like $1.7M allotted for the draft this year due to their FA exuberance.

StealingSigns
02-07-2012, 09:21 PM
Maybe...but they're the same for everyone.

One good thing is that teams that buy the big time FA's will be hammered in the draft, so they can't double dip. For example, The Angels will have something like $1.7M allotted for the draft this year due to their FA exuberance.

I was thinking about this last night... Is this one of the reasons AA was reluctant to spend big on free agency this off-season, because it would affect his draft next summer? And if so:
1) Is this a one-time thing, in order to get one last huge draft in before the team is contending; or
2) It is perpetual: The Jays decline spending on big free agent contracts in order to continue being big players at the draft

Sanyo
02-07-2012, 10:57 PM
I was thinking about this last night... Is this one of the reasons AA was reluctant to spend big on free agency this off-season, because it would affect his draft next summer? And if so:
1) Is this a one-time thing, in order to get one last huge draft in before the team is contending; or
2) It is perpetual: The Jays decline spending on big free agent contracts in order to continue being big players at the draft

Well considering this is the last draft the Jays will have all these sandwich Type B picks, then that's possible -- after next year pretty much everyone gets one pick every round except in circumstances where they were offered a player a minimum one year deal at the top 125 pay of the mlb (or something) and then you get a pick for that if they decline the deal and go elsewhere.

Jays will have to find clever ways but most of the loopholes are closing...I would just hope they would put a super hard cap similar to other sports so we dont have these stupid $200 million deals anymore...

Krylian
02-07-2012, 11:20 PM
Well considering this is the last draft the Jays will have all these sandwich Type B picks, then that's possible -- after next year pretty much everyone gets one pick every round except in circumstances where they were offered a player a minimum one year deal at the top 125 pay of the mlb (or something) and then you get a pick for that if they decline the deal and go elsewhere.

Jays will have to find clever ways but most of the loopholes are closing...I would just hope they would put a super hard cap similar to other sports so we dont have these stupid $200 million deals anymore...

One thing that I'm curious to see if how those 'Competitive Balance' picks play out. I think they'll be introduced for the 2013 draft and it's basically the Top 10 teams for revenue and record (I'm sure they have some formula to figure it out). They'll be in that sandwich round area...and what's most intriguing is that they can be traded. This is the first time that trading picks of any kind has ever been permitted so it'll be interested to see how GM's handle it and what sort of value they have.

I hope AA is all over it like a fat kid on a Big Mac.

Billyen
02-07-2012, 11:36 PM
I was thinking about this last night... Is this one of the reasons AA was reluctant to spend big on free agency this off-season, because it would affect his draft next summer? And if so:
1) Is this a one-time thing, in order to get one last huge draft in before the team is contending; or
2) It is perpetual: The Jays decline spending on big free agent contracts in order to continue being big players at the draft

I was thinking the opposite. If it was your "last" chance to spend (AA would have known this more than us)...why not just spend a couple million more and get the farm beefed up.

It still bugs me...this not "giving in" to the kids for a few 100k policy ...or 500k-1M for Beede.

We lost some good talent because of it. It just doesn't make any sense in a world where EE is getting paid 3M+ and Mathis almost 2M.

I think the real steal of the draft was Josh Bell. I'm going to watch his career carefully.

Billyen
02-07-2012, 11:52 PM
One thing that I'm curious to see if how those 'Competitive Balance' picks play out. I think they'll be introduced for the 2013 draft and it's basically the Top 10 teams for revenue and record (I'm sure they have some formula to figure it out). They'll be in that sandwich round area...and what's most intriguing is that they can be traded. This is the first time that trading picks of any kind has ever been permitted so it'll be interested to see how GM's handle it and what sort of value they have.

I hope AA is all over it like a fat kid on a Big Mac.

I have no doubt about this.

What I like to see and I think we'll see more of is big prospect trades. Say a small market team has a top20 kid like Lawrie in AA/AAA. They have a bad contract or 2 they want to move. AA will trade for the kid and take the salary and send a Rookie ball scrub.

Basically, AA bought a prospect. Or something a long those lines.

Sanyo
02-08-2012, 12:36 AM
Im disappointed the Jays didnt sign Tyler Beede, but if they let him walk over the Jays to start, who's to say he wouldnt do the same once he got in the organization -- its not just what Beede does then, its what if he blossoms and becomes another Lincecum and demands boatloads of cash every single year (hopefully not for weed *cough*) -- teams like the Jays think way further along than any of us.

Now having said that, we did get a pick to replace him this year, its a crapshoot how any pick turns out to be honest...its like losing James Paxton and then getting Noah Syndergaard as a replacement -- at this point its anyone guess who will turn out to be the better of the two when its all set and done in about 20 years from now...

StealingSigns
02-08-2012, 01:13 AM
I was thinking the opposite. If it was your "last" chance to spend (AA would have known this more than us)...why not just spend a couple million more and get the farm beefed up.

It still bugs me...this not "giving in" to the kids for a few 100k policy ...or 500k-1M for Beede.

We lost some good talent because of it. It just doesn't make any sense in a world where EE is getting paid 3M+ and Mathis almost 2M.

I think the real steal of the draft was Josh Bell. I'm going to watch his career carefully.

Wait... I don't think we are talking about the same thing here. You are referring to contracts doled out to draftees. I am talking about contracts doled out to free agents at the major league level.

Billyen
02-08-2012, 07:09 AM
Wait... I don't think we are talking about the same thing here. You are referring to contracts doled out to draftees. I am talking about contracts doled out to free agents at the major league level.

Ah, I getcha. Sorry. We sign Fielder and lose 2 picks. Ok then.

However...with that said and if picks were your goal...don't resign Johnson?

Just everything went wrong for me as a fan this year. I wasn't to sad about Prince...Yu would have been nice but, the double wammy for me was no big trades and the Johnson signing (losing 2 picks) in our last big draft. I think he'll be a dud but happy if he does well.

I got totally on board with the rebuild to the point I hoped for loses to get a higher pick.

Krylian
02-08-2012, 11:40 AM
Ah, I getcha. Sorry. We sign Fielder and lose 2 picks. Ok then.

However...with that said and if picks were your goal...don't resign Johnson?

Just everything went wrong for me as a fan this year. I wasn't to sad about Prince...Yu would have been nice but, the double wammy for me was no big trades and the Johnson signing (losing 2 picks) in our last big draft. I think he'll be a dud but happy if he does well.

I got totally on board with the rebuild to the point I hoped for loses to get a higher pick.

In order to be eligible for the comp picks you have to offer the player arbitration and have him reject it...then sign elsewhere. At that point, you'd get 2 picks back.

The Jays did offer Johnson arbitration. What went wrong is that he accepted it.

I'm pretty confident in saying that if AA had it his way, Johnson would've rejected arbitration, we would've pocketed 2 picks, and a 2B replacement would've been dealt for.

nstojic
02-09-2012, 04:54 PM
to go along with the prep top 5, here is the top 5 college specs from Sickels (Sickels) *from his site but not BY him

Krylian
02-09-2012, 07:33 PM
I've read several Verlander comparisons when discussing Appel.

The top few College guys are good, but it drops off pretty fast after that this year.

nstojic
02-09-2012, 07:36 PM
if I had the 1st pick, i'd take Giolito

Krylian
02-09-2012, 07:39 PM
if I had the 1st pick, i'd take Giolito

I think I might lean that way also....he and Appel are the clear #1 and #2 as it stands today.

bomber0104
02-10-2012, 01:18 AM
**** this... its too early for me to start looking into draft prospects

our draft thread was huge last year

Krylian
02-10-2012, 01:50 AM
**** this... its too early for me to start looking into draft prospects

our draft thread was huge last year

Then why are you posting in here? ;)

Sanyo
02-10-2012, 01:59 AM
Drafts about 4 months away, not much at this point many can do to sway -- most of the swaying by players will have to be done at workouts...

Krylian
02-26-2012, 12:27 AM
Victor Roache broke an area around his wrist today diving for a ball and will have surgery to repair it. No timetable on his return.

Roache went into the year ranked as a Top 10 pick. Horrible news for him.

Might be a steal for someone in a later round the way John Stilton might be for the Jays when they got him in the 3rd round last year.

es0terik
02-26-2012, 02:46 AM
Sickels (Sickels) gives his 1-5 high school specs for 2012 draft

That isn't Sickels btw. The author of that piece is "Matt Garrioch". It's just Sickels' website.


I was thinking the opposite. If it was your "last" chance to spend (AA would have known this more than us)...why not just spend a couple million more and get the farm beefed up.

It still bugs me...this not "giving in" to the kids for a few 100k policy ...or 500k-1M for Beede.

We lost some good talent because of it. It just doesn't make any sense in a world where EE is getting paid 3M+ and Mathis almost 2M.

I think the real steal of the draft was Josh Bell. I'm going to watch his career carefully.

The real steal of the draft was Daniel Norris lol.

Krylian
02-26-2012, 10:41 AM
Paying $5M for a player that was a mid 1st round talent is not a steal...it's an overpay.

the_jon
02-27-2012, 08:40 PM
Paying $5M for a player that was a mid 1st round talent is not a steal...it's an overpay.
Good thing we only gave Norris 2 mill ;)

Krylian
02-28-2012, 12:18 AM
Good thing we only gave Norris 2 mill ;)

Norris was considered a mid-1st round talent as well so $2M is perfectly fine.

phillipmike
02-28-2012, 01:30 PM
Norris was considered a mid-1st round talent as well so $2M is perfectly fine.

In addition to one of the best arms and thee best left handed arm in the draft period. If teams knew he would sign for 2 million instead of the 4 million he was asking for then he would have been a top 10 pick.

nstojic
02-29-2012, 12:11 PM
Fangraphs (Fangraphs) looks at notable HS arms


After such a talent-laden draft class last year, it is quite easy to feel a bit underwhelmed with the upcoming crop of players for the 2012 MLB Draft. That does not mean the draft class is bereft of big league talent or necessarily poor. It simply reflects just how good the ’11 group of draftees was largely thought to be. Plenty of quality players exist in the ’12 draft class.

Much of the talent lies within the high school arms.

Krylian
02-29-2012, 12:51 PM
I wouldn't limit it to High School arms. There are a lot of high end high school bats in this draft also. The College class will be awful though, with the exception of the few high picks early on.

nithanyo
02-29-2012, 02:54 PM
I don't know jack **** bout the draft but i want us to get a big name pitcher. Im talking Roy Halladay 2.0

Its always smart to draft pitching cus its easier to trade for hitters than pitchers

Krylian
02-29-2012, 03:18 PM
I don't know jack **** bout the draft but i want us to get a big name pitcher. Im talking Roy Halladay 2.0
Its always smart to draft pitching cus its easier to trade for hitters than pitchers

Easier said than done.

The Jays will draft at least a couple more arms from those first 5...but being another Doc? That's tough.

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 04:06 PM
Bpa.

nstojic
02-29-2012, 04:47 PM
If I had the 1st pick, as I've already said, I'd draft HS'er Giolito...

and he's certainly making his case..


Los Angeles Times' high school reporter Eric Sondheimer tweeted breaking news Tuesday evening that Harvard-Westlake High (Studio City, Calif.) righthander Lucas Giolito hit 100 mph in a start against El Camino Real High (Woodland Hills, Calif.). A quick text to head coach Matt LaCour confirmed the report and he assured Baseball America that the guns weren't hot.

"My gun is slow and he hit 97 in the sixth," he said. "The first pitch he threw in warm-ups, you could tell it was different."

Giolito went 6 1/3 innings against El Camino Real, allowing one hit and no walks while striking out eight.

The top high school prospect for the 2012 draft, there is early speculation that Giolito could be the first high school righthander to be selected first overall. He has everything you can ask for in a prep arm. He stands at 6-foot-6, 230 pounds with broad shoulders and strong legs. He sat in the low to mid 90s last summer, but took a step forward this fall and has been easily reaching the high 90s. He has a low-80s curveball with sharp, downward break and a good changeup with a sink. He has an easy delivery and can lull hitters to sleep with his slow tempo before he explodes toward the plate.

BA (BA)

Krylian
02-29-2012, 05:45 PM
Bpa.

Agree....but with the caveat that with the new monetary restrictions to draft signings, you might have to be a bit more creative (i.e. draft a couple of guys that have helium but maybe aren't ranked as high (Syndergaard, Musgrove) and sign them for under slot. Then you can re-allocate those funds and maybe sign a tougher pick or two somewhere else.

AA09-?
02-29-2012, 06:09 PM
Agree....but with the caveat that with the new monetary restrictions to draft signings, you might have to be a bit more creative (i.e. draft a couple of guys that have helium but maybe aren't ranked as high (Syndergaard, Musgrove) and sign them for under slot. Then you can re-allocate those funds and maybe sign a tougher pick or two somewhere else.

I definitely agree. It's all circumstantial.

Krylian
03-02-2012, 08:56 PM
Marcus Stroman had a killer outing today.

7IP, 2H, 17 K's. 106 pitches, 76 strikes.

He was sitting 92-94 with the FB and had his usual wipeout slider. Mixed in a few cutters to shake things up.

Stroman is expected to be a 1st rounder. The only knock on him is that he stands only 5'9"...hence the Tom Gordon comparisons.

es0terik
03-05-2012, 12:24 AM
I don't know jack **** bout the draft but i want us to get a big name pitcher. Im talking Roy Halladay 2.0

Its always smart to draft pitching cus its easier to trade for hitters than pitchers

If you want a prospect who could one day be Roy Halladay 2.0 you don't have to look any further than Kyle Drabek. If he figures it out, his ceiling is that of Halladay.

nstojic
03-05-2012, 12:22 PM
That isn't Sickels btw. The author of that piece is "Matt Garrioch". It's just Sickels' website.

Yeah, I mentioned that on the 2nd post where I posted the college specs.. I wasn't clear enough about posting that it was generally just from his site.. sorry

nstojic
03-05-2012, 12:23 PM
I wouldn't limit it to High School arms. There are a lot of high end high school bats in this draft also.

Fangraphs (Fangraphs), on the top HS bats.. from today

Krylian
03-05-2012, 01:49 PM
My sleeper HS bat is Alex Bregman. He's been a middle infielder (not overwhelming defensively) but has a very advanced bat and has good power considering he's not a big guy. He's been behind the plate quite a bit this year and I was just reading today actually that his defense is really coming on and he has a chance at sticking there. If he does, he'll be shooting up draft boards. Right now he's in that supplementary 1st to 2nd round range, but this kid is gonna hit.

nstojic
03-05-2012, 01:50 PM
Sickels and Garrioch, give an early mock of the first round (first round)

Krylian
03-05-2012, 01:52 PM
They lost me at the first pick. Gausman? No chance. Top 5? Sure...but 1st....no.

Sanyo
03-05-2012, 02:40 PM
Well I trust AA with whomever he gets -- he's shown in the last two years the scouting ability of the Jays and picking up guys outside the first round who are doing well in the farm. I think its quite silly for us to debate who goes first when none of us have ever seen these guys in play and there is limited scouting on some of these guys...

BlueJayFanDan
03-05-2012, 02:48 PM
I've said it a few times already and I will say it another 100 times before the draft. All I ask for is Joey Gallo with one pick, and a high ceiling pitcher with the other 1st round pick. That's what I want and I am not changing my opinion between now and the draft. Gallo is a stud, and high ceiling pitchers make me happy.

Krylian
03-05-2012, 04:49 PM
I've said it a few times already and I will say it another 100 times before the draft. All I ask for is Joey Gallo with one pick, and a high ceiling pitcher with the other 1st round pick. That's what I want and I am not changing my opinion between now and the draft. Gallo is a stud, and high ceiling pitchers make me happy.

You'll have to change your opinion if Gallo is taken before the Jays pick.

Krylian
03-05-2012, 04:55 PM
Well I trust AA with whomever he gets -- he's shown in the last two years the scouting ability of the Jays and picking up guys outside the first round who are doing well in the farm. I think its quite silly for us to debate who goes first when none of us have ever seen these guys in play and there is limited scouting on some of these guys...

There are plenty of scouting reports (you just have to look for them).

This a baseball forum...the entire purpose is to discuss baseball, and in this particular thread, discuss and debate the 2012 draft. It's not silly to have favourites and opinions on who you want to see drafted when.

There are tons of clips, highlights, and scouting videos available to see what guys look like...their mechanics and stuff (pitchers)...their swings, fielding and throwing abilities (positional players).

I think for the most part, people haven't seen, read about, or even heard of 99% of the guys out there...but there are some of us that have.

es0terik
03-06-2012, 01:44 AM
I'm pretty sure the Jays regret not signing Beede now that there's a cap on how much you can spend in the draft.

nstojic
03-06-2012, 08:35 AM
I'm pretty sure the Jays regret not signing Beede now that there's a cap on how much you can spend in the draft.

not really relevant but his college career's gotten off to a rough start...

started Vandy's 2nd game of the season(Feb 18)
4.1 IP 9 H 9 R 5 ER 1 BB 2 K ..74 pitches

doesn't get to pitch again until Mar 4
in relief 1.2 IP 4 H 3 R 2 ER 0 BB 2 K..24 pitches

Krylian
03-06-2012, 09:03 AM
I'm pretty sure the Jays regret not signing Beede now that there's a cap on how much you can spend in the draft.

...and/or....Beede regrets not signing with the Jays now that there's a cap on how much teams can spend.

AA09-?
03-06-2012, 11:07 AM
...and/or....Beede regrets not signing with the Jays now that there's a cap on how much teams can spend.

Probably more this.

es0terik
03-06-2012, 11:48 AM
Probably more this.

Why does it have to be more of one or the other, they both probably regret it. The Jays regret not spending the extra 500K to sign him on the last chance they ever had to free spend in the draft, and Beede will regret not signing because unless he really ups his game, he screwed himself out of a couple million dollars.

torontosports10
03-06-2012, 12:22 PM
Bpa all the way

phillipmike
03-06-2012, 12:58 PM
Why does it have to be more of one or the other, they both probably regret it. The Jays regret not spending the extra 500K to sign him on the last chance they ever had to free spend in the draft, and Beede will regret not signing because unless he really ups his game, he screwed himself out of a couple million dollars.

I think Beede regrets it more...

The Jays were rumored to offer 2.5M and Beede wanted 3.5M.

http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/mlb/bluejays/article/1039860--jays-fail-to-sign-top-pick-tyler-beede-but-reach-deal-with-pitcher-dan-norris

The first 4 picks from here on out are cap at 7.2M, 6.2, 5.2, and 4.2 due to the new CBA.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/quick-hits-draft-papelbon-indians-dbacks-pirates.html

You can assume that the 5th will be between 3M and 4.2M.

I would assume to get 2.5M the Jays offered Beeded would have to be a top 20 pick and to get what he wanted (3.5M) he would have to be a top 10-15 pick, probably closer to top 10. That is a big risk for Beede considering he gave up a guaranteed 2.5M to no salary in 2011-2012 from Vanderbilt. So he loses that money no matter what, he now has to perform to stay as a top 20 pick to at least get back what he was being offered and potentially a top 10 pick to get what he was asking for. Also consider the injury factor too, if he gets injured you can forget about being a first round pick and wont get a 1/5 of what the Jays were being offered.

Having Beede not sign is a loss for the Jays but not a big risk as they get a another pick and can get another player. Beede gave up the certainty of 2.5M for the uncertainty of what he may sign for if all goes well. There is a possibility that he flops and does not get drafted in the first round and he says good bye to 2.5M.

Bigger risk for Beede than the Jays.

Krylian
03-06-2012, 01:29 PM
Why does it have to be more of one or the other, they both probably regret it. The Jays regret not spending the extra 500K to sign him on the last chance they ever had to free spend in the draft, and Beede will regret not signing because unless he really ups his game, he screwed himself out of a couple million dollars.

Beede...because he's taking a bigger risk. The Jays get the 22nd pick this year so they'll still land a talented player...and if they don't sign him, they'll get the 23rd pick next year. There's a safety net under the Jays...Beede has to perform or he won't be picked high....and now he can't be someone who slips to the 3rd round and still gets his mil or two.

phillipmike
03-06-2012, 03:32 PM
Beede...because he's taking a bigger risk. The Jays get the 22nd pick this year so they'll still land a talented player...and if they don't sign him, they'll get the 23rd pick next year. There's a safety net under the Jays...Beede has to perform or he won't be picked high....and now he can't be someone who slips to the 3rd round and still gets his mil or two.

Though i agree with your point as the Jays have less risk. But they did not sign Beede in 2011 with the 21st pick and as a result receive the 22nd pick in 2012 as compensation. But if the Jays dont sign their 22nd pick in 2012 then they do not receive any compensation period - they lose the pick outright.

So who they select with that pick will be very interesting because in theory the draftee could hold out for the entire cap amount for that slot and force their hand or he wont sign and the Jays lose the pick.

The Jays can go BPA and sign right to or close to the slot cap. Or (what i think they will do) sign a raw, high school player with a big ceiling, who the Jays have a great relationship with (in regards to his agent). Have him sign well below the slot cap and allocate the extra funds towards more harder signees later in the draft. The incentive is the Jays get more money to work with and as a result they receive more high ceiling players. The incentive for the player is that he was expected to go lower and receive less money - so they Jays offer him more money then what he would normally got if he went later but the Jays also save some funds for later round picks.

Krylian
03-06-2012, 03:37 PM
Though i agree with your point as the Jays have less risk. But they did not sign Beede in 2011 with the 21st pick and as a result receive the 22nd pick in 2012 as compensation. But if the Jays dont sign their 22nd pick in 2012 then they do not receive any compensation period - they lose the pick outright.

So who they select with that pick will be very interesting because in theory the draftee could hold out for the entire cap amount for that slot and force their hand or he wont sign and the Jays lose the pick.

The Jays can go BPA and sign right to or close to the slot cap. Or (what i think they will do) sign a raw, high school player with a big ceiling, who the Jays have a great relationship with (in regards to his agent). Have him sign well below the slot cap and allocate the extra funds towards more harder signees later in the draft. The incentive is the Jays get more money to work with and as a result they receive more high ceiling players. The incentive for the player is that he was expected to go lower and receive less money - so they Jays offer him more money then what he would normally got if he went later but the Jays also save some funds for later round picks.

In the old CBA, they lose the pick. With the new CBA, teams get an additional year of compensation for unsigned picks.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612723.html


• Teams get an extra year of protection for compensation picks for failure to sign draftees from the first three rounds. For example, the Blue Jays get the 22nd pick in 2012 after not signing No. 21 overall choice Tyler Beede in 2011. If Toronto can't come to terms with the compensation selection, it would get another one in 2013.

phillipmike
03-06-2012, 04:58 PM
In the old CBA, they lose the pick. With the new CBA, teams get an additional year of compensation for unsigned picks.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2012/2612723.html

LOL i felt so smart writing this. LOL thanks.

es0terik
03-06-2012, 08:13 PM
Yep that was one of the only new rules I liked about the CBA, mostly because it favored the Jays immediately. This gives us leverage in negotiations with whoever we sign at that spot. Now that player will know that the Jays had no problem not signing Beede and got compensation this year, and they'll just do the exact same thing if that player asks for too much.

Also I was wondering, I remember hearing some stuff about them moving the draft signing deadline up a month. Did they do that for 2012?

es0terik
03-06-2012, 08:16 PM
Nevermind I found the answer; the new deadline to sign a drafted player is July 13! :) Love it.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/important_dates.jsp

phillipmike
03-07-2012, 01:00 AM
Nevermind I found the answer; the new deadline to sign a drafted player is July 13! :) Love it.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/schedule/important_dates.jsp

Its great because guys will sign sooner and get a shot at pro ball in 2012 so we can see what they got sooner and more often. It was one of few bright spots in the new CBA.

Krylian
03-07-2012, 03:11 PM
Huge draft news....a crusher for Lucas Giolito.


Harvard-Westlake High righthander and top high school prospect Lucas Giolito is likely out for the season with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament, head coach Matt LaCour confirmed Wednesday afternoon. Giolito left his Tuesday start after 6 1/3 innings. It was a tough outing for him as he allowed two runs on five hits, three walks and three hit batters. He struck out four.

Surgery is not needed on Giolito's elbow. He will rest and rehab it for six to 10 weeks. The draft is approximately 12 weeks away. He was considered a candidate to be the first overall pick thanks to his ideal frame and plus arsenal.

"He's crushed. His teammates are crushed," LaCour told the Los Angeles Times' Eric Sondheimer. "His coaches are crushed, and we're going to have to spend the next two days getting back on track."



http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/03/giolito-out-for-the-season/

Krylian
03-07-2012, 03:13 PM
I wonder what this does to his draft position and if he slips past the first 5-6 picks does he say 'screw it' and goes to school in hopes of getting his big payday in 3 years?

North Yorker
03-07-2012, 05:22 PM
*Sorry if already posted

John Sickels and Matt Garrioch mock draft: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/5/2844620/2012-baseball-mock-draft


17) Blue Jays (Matt): The Blue Jays have been commended for having good drafts the last couple of years but the have also had a lot of pick high in the draft. This year is no different as they have 14 picks in the top 10 rounds and with that comes the 5th highest draft bonus pool. That gives them plenty of room to go after elite talent. I don't see them taking a college player at all at this point. I really like Trey Williams, Stryker Trahan and Lance McCullers still on the board at this stage but the guy with the highest potential here may be Nick Williams, OF, Texas HS.


22) Blue Jays (John): The Jays have gone all-in on pitching, tools, and youth in recent drafts and I don't think that focus is going to change. Looking at the high school ranks, a logical pitcher would be prep right-hander Lucas Sims, who offers premium athleticism in addition to his arm strength and a solid fastball/curve/changeup arsenal. Lucas Sims, RHP, Georgia HS.

Check out this link on Nick Williams and watch the VIDEO!
http://diamondprospects.blogspot.com/2011/07/nick-williams-draft-profile.html

Dude looks like a stud.

Krylian
03-07-2012, 05:23 PM
Nick Williams won't be going in the 1st round. He's slipped since last summer. Probably more of a comp round guy...unless he really picks it up this spring.

North Yorker
03-07-2012, 05:34 PM
Nick Williams won't be going in the 1st round. He's slipped since last summer. Probably more of a comp round guy...unless he really picks it up this spring.

any particular reason why he slipped? Looks like another Jacob Anderson type spec?

Krylian
03-07-2012, 05:42 PM
any particular reason why he slipped? Looks like another Jacob Anderson type spec?

From what I've read he's very raw but has all kinds of tools. I believe he struggled with the bat last year so scout are wondering if he'll be able to transition the tools into skills.

But no doubt, he's very physically gifted. If he's there in the comp round, I'd jump on him...unless he has a great spring...then all bets are off.

es0terik
03-09-2012, 03:02 AM
Although I'm shocked at the Giolito news, if there's any chance at all that he drops to the 17th pick and there's any chance at all that he will sign for that kind of money, the Jays should take it.

Btw, I've been thinking about this, what if a team signs a prospect to the slot recommendation and then extends that prospect on a major league deal? It would essentially be the same thing as how teams signed guys like Dylan Bundy (major league contract, $6.25 million, 5 year deal) but without going overslot in the actual draft. Isn't that a huge loophole, or would there be some sort of ramification for doing that sort of thing. I mean it seems legit and there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with it. Discussing an extension to follow the signing is okay AFTER you have drafted the player right?

If this is the case, and a player like Giolito DOES slip to the Jays pick for whatever reason (injury or otherwise) can't they just sign them to the slot and then extend them for another few million?

es0terik
03-09-2012, 03:08 AM
Gonna post this in the MLB forum.

BlueJayFanDan
03-09-2012, 05:44 AM
I doubt Giolito falls past the top 10 even with injury, but if he does, I would love to see him fall to us. Still don't see it though.

Sanyo
03-09-2012, 10:50 AM
Dice K had the same injury as Giolito. Its a sprain, doesnt require surgery and usually heals within a month. Not sure how long the high school season is in California, but I think for precaution they'll keep him out. And this definitely slips him below slot. If he's around at 17, knowing the risks AA likes to take there is no doubt he would go for this kid. But he may be gone before 17th pick....

ILDD
03-11-2012, 04:10 PM
Gonna post this in the MLB forum.

I seem to remember it was specifically addressed in the new cba - you can't sign players to a big league contract until a certain time limit had passed.

Now I say that I can't find it anywhere to be sure but I remember hearing it at the time when the draft slot system was announced.

es0terik
03-12-2012, 02:44 AM
I'm in the process of making a 2012 draft super thread. Gonna pack it with any relevant information I can find pertaining to the draft. So far I've posted the reverse standings, the draft order for the first two rounds and a bunch of useful links. I plan on adding the draft order for the next two rounds, a top 100 draft prospects list and continued updates regarded draft-related news.

You guys can find the thread here: http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/showthread.php?t=702369

Fixin' to put a lot of time into the thread and I'll welcome any help you guys can give me in providing links, stories, scouting reports, mock drafts, compensation information, key CBA rules, etc.

DeRozan10
03-16-2012, 08:44 PM
I doubt Giolito falls past the top 10 even with injury, but if he does, I would love to see him fall to us. Still don't see it though.

I gurantee you, injury or not he doesnt make it past the top 5

DeRozan10
03-16-2012, 08:48 PM
Im hopeing that Michael Wacha falls down to the Jays at #17

es0terik
03-17-2012, 04:04 AM
I gurantee you, injury or not he doesnt make it past the top 5

I'll take you up on that guarantee. I say he even falls past the top 10.

DeRozan10
03-17-2012, 04:52 AM
I'll take you up on that guarantee. I say he even falls past the top 10.

haha okay done

Krylian
03-17-2012, 07:46 AM
I doubt he slips past the top 5 too. It's not like he had surgery...it's a sprain. You don't pass up on that kind of talent because of a sprain.

es0terik
03-17-2012, 02:27 PM
You guys need to stop thinking as if Giolito is the only player in the draft. What do you mean you don't 'pass up on that talent', so guys like Appel and Buxton aren't talented? If you had a choice between Buxton or another top 5 draft pick and Giolito who just suffered an injury which one would you go with? You would risk wasting a top 5 pick? There's going to be insanely talented guys still around in the top 5-top 10, the majority of teams would go with the safer pick. Unless Giolito is back to 100% and pitching again by June, he's definitely not going in the top 5.

Krylian
03-17-2012, 02:32 PM
I'd still take Giolito over Marrero and Zunino. The only guys I'd consider taking over Giolito (with his injury) are Appel, Buxton, and maybe Zimmer. The others are all a notch below.

BlueJayFanDan
03-20-2012, 05:21 AM
Do you guys realize how disgustingly good our minor league system will be after this draft? I really cannot wait for this draft.

torontosports10
03-20-2012, 07:53 AM
Well, we can't all take the high ceiling high priced guys like we have in the past anymore though, the high school kids will want too much money most likely.

It'd be sick if we went 4.9% over the limit and paid the 75% tax though, then we would get top players, and send a big **** you to the league for the stupid new system.

1hardcore
03-20-2012, 12:19 PM
keep loading up on arms

can never have enough.

this!!!

Krylian
03-28-2012, 09:20 AM
Hey guys, check out my rankings and reports on the top starting RHP from College and High School eligible for the 2012 draft on Sickels' site. There are about 200 profiles, with some video for all the prospect lovers on here curious whom the Jays might draft. I will have a Mock Draft encompassing the first 10 rounds soon. Feel free to post the Blog if you wish. Enjoy!

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/27/2906166/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-right-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/26/2903428/mlb-2012-draft-college-right-handed-starters

Great stuff. I'm just wondering how up to date your scouting reports is on Kyle Zimmer? He's been sittin 94-96, and touching 98-99 this year...very different from what you're showing.

Krylian
04-03-2012, 10:10 PM
More scouting reports and video:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/27/2906166/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-right-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/30/2914684/mlb-2012-draft-college-left-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/30/2915074/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-left-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/3/2921862/mlb-2012-draft-college-relievers

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/3/2923755/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-catchers

Keep 'em coming.

Great stuff.

StealingSigns
04-03-2012, 10:51 PM
More scouting reports and video:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/27/2906166/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-right-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/30/2914684/mlb-2012-draft-college-left-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/30/2915074/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-left-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/3/2921862/mlb-2012-draft-college-relievers

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/3/2923755/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-catchers

Nicely done. :clap:

es0terik
04-04-2012, 02:54 AM
More scouting reports and video:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/27/2906166/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-right-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/30/2914684/mlb-2012-draft-college-left-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/3/30/2915074/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-left-handed-starters

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/3/2921862/mlb-2012-draft-college-relievers

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/3/2923755/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-catchers

Good job, going to quote this post in the MLB forum thread.

lexecutioner
04-05-2012, 09:01 AM
91) Stephen Gant, RHP, 6’1 175, TN, HS: A UCLA commit, Gant’s fastball usually sits 88-90, but has been reported as high as 93. He has a clean effortless arm action and maintains his velocity well. Mixes in a promising low 70s curveball as well.

Sad but he is dead. He seems like rising on some chart

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/prep-baseball-superstar-possible-first-round-mlb-pick-170907446.html

jaysforever
04-09-2012, 09:02 AM
Hi guys...new to the forum. Really looking forward to the upcoming year and the draft. This mock was posted last week. Seems pretty good and the guy seems to have the pulse of the jays. My only question is...who is Mitch Nay? I don't see him in BA's top 100 at all! Must be a guy on the rise.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1130015-2012-mlb-mock-draft-studs-who-will-be-future-all-stars

Krylian
04-09-2012, 10:32 AM
Hi guys...new to the forum. Really looking forward to the upcoming year and the draft. This mock was posted last week. Seems pretty good and the guy seems to have the pulse of the jays. My only question is...who is Mitch Nay? I don't see him in BA's top 100 at all! Must be a guy on the rise.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1130015-2012-mlb-mock-draft-studs-who-will-be-future-all-stars

I don't like Nay at 17 at all. Comp round maybe....

Mitch Nay (Hamilton HS, Ariz.) is a physical third baseman in the mold of Rockies top prospect Nolan Arenado. Nay has one of the best swings, power potential and overall approaches of any player eligible for this year's draft, and could be taken in the first or supplemental first round.

Nay is a very strong corner bat at 6-foot-3, 195 pounds. The ball jumps off the bat and makes a different sound than his peers. He has big power to all fields, but there is a significant flaw to his swing. He steps out with his front foot and tends to fly open with his front side. Pitchers at the next level may not have trouble exposing him on outside pitches if he doesn't adjust, but he still manages to square balls up at a high rate. A third baseman for now, he struggled in a short look in the outfield last summer. A lower back injury kept him out for most of the fall and he also broke his left hamate last year so the spring season will be especially important for the Arizona State signee. Solid chance for plus-plus power down the road.

Winker is a bit better here, but still not a huge fan. Think there's better talent available.


Winker is one of the better bats in the 2012 class. He has a sweet swing and generates big power from a strong base. Evaluators are confident in his bat, which will have to carry him since he is likely a first baseman or left fielder down the line. He is a below-average runner and his arm is average at best. He has great makeup and takes every opportunity to soak up as much knowledge as possible. He is committed to Florida and has a brother, Joey, that plays in the Dodgers organization.

Big, solid frame with a fair amount of room to build add weight. Shows good extension and plate coverage with the bat barrel, with power to all fields.* Patient approach at the plate with quick, quiet hands.

Based on this list and who they project going where, I'd rather go with Trahan at 17 and Almora or Sims at 22.

Sanyo
04-09-2012, 10:44 AM
wow i hope baltimore doesn't get lucas giolito -- him and bundy would make a disgusting one, two punch!

and they mocked the jays to get two position players in the first round, which is highly unlikely to happen -- if last year is an indication the jays may surprise with at least one of the picks to be a guy you didnt expect to go in the first round...

Sanyo
04-09-2012, 11:12 AM
just for fun, i know its almost impossible, but just for fun what do you think it would take to get dylan bundy from the orioles?

jmoney23
04-09-2012, 11:43 AM
just for fun, i know its almost impossible, but just for fun what do you think it would take to get dylan bundy from the orioles?

Impossible? Definitely.

I'll bite though. Maybe D'Arnaud, Norris, Marisnick/Gose, and one more prospect. It would take probably 3-4 high end Top 10 prospects to get him. I think he's going to be a stud though, and he could move very quickly through their system. He could be in the bigs before he gets to 21. I don't show sympathy for any other team in AL East, but with how bad Baltimore has been and how their young arms (Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton, etc..) haven't lived up to the hype, I want them to at least have one guy pan out for them.

jaysforever
04-09-2012, 01:06 PM
and they mocked the jays to get two position players in the first round, which is highly unlikely to happen -- if last year is an indication the jays may surprise with at least one of the picks to be a guy you didnt expect to go in the first round...

Yeah...good point. You have to figure they'll grab a power arm with at least one of the two selections....

jaysforever
04-09-2012, 01:10 PM
I don't like Nay at 17 at all. Comp round maybe....
.

The thing about our comp picks this draft is they are way down at 50 and later. The last 2 drafts we had very high comp picks, and thus able to get Sanchez/Synd and Anderson. It's going to take some real strategizing to figure out who will still be on the board at 50+, otherwise, if they really want a guy they are going to have to take him at 17 or 22. Not saying Nay is our guy, but just noting.

Krylian
04-09-2012, 11:19 PM
The thing about our comp picks this draft is they are way down at 50 and later. The last 2 drafts we had very high comp picks, and thus able to get Sanchez/Synd and Anderson. It's going to take some real strategizing to figure out who will still be on the board at 50+, otherwise, if they really want a guy they are going to have to take him at 17 or 22. Not saying Nay is our guy, but just noting.

There are some real nice players available throughout the comp round. There is nice HS depth. Nay is not the guy.

jaysforever
04-11-2012, 08:37 PM
deleted by poster

StealingSigns
04-11-2012, 10:27 PM
Impossible? Definitely.

I'll bite though. Maybe D'Arnaud, Norris, Marisnick/Gose, and one more prospect. It would take probably 3-4 high end Top 10 prospects to get him. I think he's going to be a stud though, and he could move very quickly through their system. He could be in the bigs before he gets to 21. I don't show sympathy for any other team in AL East, but with how bad Baltimore has been and how their young arms (Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, Britton, etc..) haven't lived up to the hype, I want them to at least have one guy pan out for them.

Manny Machado will join Wieters as someone who will not be joining that dubious list. Still, wow their picks haven't panned out...

fatkev78
04-17-2012, 11:38 AM
Nothing we didn't already know, but it's official:


Mike Cormack ‏
#mlb releases 2012 Draft Order: #bluejays will select at No. 17, 22 (Beede), 50 (Francisco), 58 (Rauch), 60 (Molina), 81, 112 and so on.

DeRozan10
04-17-2012, 11:53 AM
5 of the first 60 ... Lets make em count!!

DeRozan10
04-17-2012, 11:54 AM
Hope they load up on more arms too hah!!

Krylian
04-17-2012, 12:19 PM
Overall this draft isn't great...but there are plenty of players in the first couple of rounds that I'm pretty excited about.

Where the strength is this year is in the July 2 IFA market. From what I've read it's a pretty strong year...really curious to see how the Jays manouevre within this $2.9M budget.

Krylian
04-17-2012, 04:27 PM
I'm probably a little more excited about this draft than most. I'm not sure if it's because I'm just excited by prospects in general, or because I've done a lot of digging and research on the players available.

Hey Krylian do you have a link for a preview of the IFA market? I'm quite curious whether it's a deep class and who the top players available mgiht be.

Nothing in particular. www.dplbaseball.com has good writeups and info about some of their top prospects available this July 2nd...a lot of my other info just comes from google, Ben Badler, www.perfectgame.org, and any other site that I find prospect info on. Haven't been able to find much on Venezuelan prospects available for this July though...I'm sure there are a few high end guys there as well.

And yes, I too am very excited about following prospects. The Draft and July 2nd are like Christmas to me.

jaysforever
04-17-2012, 06:57 PM
I

Hey Krylian do you have a link for a preview of the IFA market? I'm quite curious whether it's a deep class and who the top players available mgiht be.

Swagger, i noticed last year that info on the IFA guys is slim pickings until after the June draft. Most sites focus on the draft until that time which makes sense. Early June though, after the draft, you'll see lots of really good stuff.

jaysforever
04-17-2012, 07:17 PM
Here's a good recap of the early performance of guys in last year's first round:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2012/04/2011-draft-an-early-review-at-the-results/#more-1330

Sanyo
04-17-2012, 07:25 PM
Here's a good recap of the early performance of guys in last year's first round:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2012/04/2011-draft-an-early-review-at-the-results/#more-1330

norton says there's a virus on it...anyway to copy paste the info here please...

jaysforever
04-17-2012, 08:06 PM
norton says there's a virus on it...anyway to copy paste the info here please...

I thought it might be fun to take a look at how the first-round picks from last years draft have performed to start the 2012 campaign. So, I made this. I hope you like it.

Please keep in mind that it’s the day after tax day, and that the most important thing to be looking at is the process. Results are fun, but the process, my friends, that’s the bees knees.

1. Pittsburgh — Gerrit Cole/ RHP/ UCLA: You have to like the strikeouts — eleven in seven innings — but he’s giving up a lot of hits and has been hurt by the home run ball. No cause for concern at all.

2. Seattle — Danny Hultzen / LHP / Virginia: Struggled a bit in his first start, but he was very good in his second outing, and could be in a Mariner uniform sometime this year.

3. Arizona – Trevor Bauer / RHP / UCLA: I still worry about his work load — and the walks — but the stuff is legit.

4. Baltimore — Dylan Bundy / RHP / Oswasso HS (OK): Absolutely sensational. There’s nothing else that needs to be said. There’s no reason for him to be in Delmarva at this point.

5. Kansas City – Bubba Starling / OF / Gardner Edgerton HS (KS): He’s starting the year in extended spring-training. There’s no rush, nothing to see here folks.

6. Washington — Anthony Rendon / 3B / Rice: He’s going to miss at least six weeks with the partial-ankle fracture, which is too bad for numerous reasons, including the fact that was hitting the tar out of the baseball.

7. Arizona — Archie Bradley / RHP / Broken Arrow HS (OK): When the command comes close to matching the stuff, he’ll be an ace, as evident by his start in South Bend.

8. Cleveland – Francisco Lindor / SS / Montverde Academy (FL): Decent start for the shortstop, and the doubles and triples will turn into bombs as he gets stronger.

9. Chicago-NL — Javier Baez / SS / Arlington County Day HS (FL): I wasn’t a huge fan of this pick last year, and it’s a bit disappointing that a guy who signed last year is starting the year in extended spring training. No reason to panic, but it’s a little off-putting.

10. San Diego — Cory Spangenberg / 2B / Indian River State College (FL): After walking 31 times in 122 plate-appearances for Eugene, he’s only walked 16 times in his next 250, and without them he’s a marginal talent.

11. Houston — George Springer / OF / Connecticut: He’s in the California League — aka hitters paradise — so you have to skew the numbers a bit, but if he can stick in center, there’s a chance that he’s one of the steals of the draft.

12. Milwaukee — Taylor Jungmann / RHP / Texas: Good ERA, but giving up a ton of base-runners. We’ll see which one is the mirage.

13. New York -NL — Brandon Nimmo / OF / East HS (WY): Starting the year off in extended spring training as well. No rush, and he’s significantly more raw than Baez, so I won’t nitpick this much.

14. Miami — Jose Fernandez / RHP / Alonso HS (FL): This was higher than I thought Fernandez should have gone, but he’s looked very good to start the year, he probably won’t be in Greensboro much longer. There is that age question still hanging over his head, however.

15. Milwaukee — Jed Bradley / LHP / Georgia Tech: The breaking-ball is working, and he no longer plays behind a disaster of a defense. Add the two together and you see why he’s been so good to start the year.

16. Los Angeles-NL — Chris Reed / LHP / Stanford: Strikeout totals are good, everything else is not. Even if he was pitching like Bundy or Bradley, this would still be the worst pick of the first-round.

17. Los Angeles-AL — C.J. Cron / 1B / Utah: Lots of extra-base hits in a very hitter friendly ballpark, the only thing missing for Cron is the walks.

18. Oakland — Sonny Gray / RHP / Vanderbilt: I am a huge fan of Gray’s, but the walks have to come down if there’s any chance of him becoming a top of the rotation arm.

19. Boston — Matt Barnes / RHP / Connecticut: Of all the guys who are a level too low, Barnes is probably the most deserving of a promotion. He’s been great, but he’s a 21 year-old with plus stuff pitching in the Sally, that’s not exactly a challenge.

20. Colorado – Tyler Anderson / LHP / Oregon: After the pelvis injury last year, the Rockies are taking things very slowly. He’ll be in A-ball sometime next month, I assume.

21. Toronto — Tyler Beede / RHP / Lawrence Academy (MA): The only first-round pick who didn’t sign, currently at Vanderbilt.

22. St. Louis — Kolten Wong / 2B / Hawaii: I hated this pick last year, and so far, all Wong has done is made me look stupid.

23. Washington — Alex Meyer / RHP / Kentucky: He’s struggled early on, but again, no real reason for concern, his stuff is too good.

24. Tampa Bay – Taylor Guerrieri / RHP / Spring Valley HS (CA): Starting the year in extended spring-training, which shouldn’t shock anyone. There is zero rush with this type of arm.

25. San Diego — Joe Ross / RHP / Bishop O’Dowd HS (CA): His first start — seven runs and only four outs — was a disaster. His second start — one run over five innings with six strikeouts — was much more like it. It wouldn’t stun me at all if Ross was a quick advance, his mechanics and polish are outstanding.

26. Boston — Blake Swihart / C / Cleveland HS (NM): He’s showing good patience, but the hits aren’t dropping as of yet. Still stunned that twenty-five teams passed on him.

27. Cincinnati — Robert Stephenson / RHP / Alhambra HS (CA): Extending spring-training. No surprise or shock again, the mechanics need a lot of work.

28. Atlanta — Sean Gilmartin / LHP / Florida State: Only three strikeouts in twelve innings, but he is getting batters out. I have my doubts about whether or not that can continue.

29. San Francisco — Joe Panik / SS / St. John’s: Some of you will remember that I had Panik as one of my sleeper guys, but I was thinking more along the lines of the second or third round. That being said, he’s getting on base, and apparently playing a decent shortstop.

30. Minnesota — Levi Michael / SS / UNC: It’d be nice to see some extra-base hits, but when you get on-base forty-five percent of the time, you can’t really complain.

31. Tampa Bay — Mikie Mahtook / OF / LSU: He’s getting on-base, but a surprising lack of power so far. Have I mentioned that it’s really early yet?

32. Tampa Bay — Jake Hager / SS / Sierra Vista HS (NV): Struggling with the bat (.646 OPS) and glove (already three errors in thirty-five chances) to begin the year.

33. Texas — Kevin Matthews / LHP / Richmond Hill HS (GA): Extending spring-training. He’s light-years away.

13Lawrie13
04-17-2012, 08:19 PM
I thought it might be fun to take a look at how the first-round picks from last years draft have performed to start the 2012 campaign. So, I made this. I hope you like it.

Please keep in mind that it’s the day after tax day, and that the most important thing to be looking at is the process. Results are fun, but the process, my friends, that’s the bees knees.

1. Pittsburgh — Gerrit Cole/ RHP/ UCLA: You have to like the strikeouts — eleven in seven innings — but he’s giving up a lot of hits and has been hurt by the home run ball. No cause for concern at all.

2. Seattle — Danny Hultzen / LHP / Virginia: Struggled a bit in his first start, but he was very good in his second outing, and could be in a Mariner uniform sometime this year.

3. Arizona – Trevor Bauer / RHP / UCLA: I still worry about his work load — and the walks — but the stuff is legit.

4. Baltimore — Dylan Bundy / RHP / Oswasso HS (OK): Absolutely sensational. There’s nothing else that needs to be said. There’s no reason for him to be in Delmarva at this point.

5. Kansas City – Bubba Starling / OF / Gardner Edgerton HS (KS): He’s starting the year in extended spring-training. There’s no rush, nothing to see here folks.

6. Washington — Anthony Rendon / 3B / Rice: He’s going to miss at least six weeks with the partial-ankle fracture, which is too bad for numerous reasons, including the fact that was hitting the tar out of the baseball.

7. Arizona — Archie Bradley / RHP / Broken Arrow HS (OK): When the command comes close to matching the stuff, he’ll be an ace, as evident by his start in South Bend.

8. Cleveland – Francisco Lindor / SS / Montverde Academy (FL): Decent start for the shortstop, and the doubles and triples will turn into bombs as he gets stronger.

9. Chicago-NL — Javier Baez / SS / Arlington County Day HS (FL): I wasn’t a huge fan of this pick last year, and it’s a bit disappointing that a guy who signed last year is starting the year in extended spring training. No reason to panic, but it’s a little off-putting.

10. San Diego — Cory Spangenberg / 2B / Indian River State College (FL): After walking 31 times in 122 plate-appearances for Eugene, he’s only walked 16 times in his next 250, and without them he’s a marginal talent.

11. Houston — George Springer / OF / Connecticut: He’s in the California League — aka hitters paradise — so you have to skew the numbers a bit, but if he can stick in center, there’s a chance that he’s one of the steals of the draft.

12. Milwaukee — Taylor Jungmann / RHP / Texas: Good ERA, but giving up a ton of base-runners. We’ll see which one is the mirage.

13. New York -NL — Brandon Nimmo / OF / East HS (WY): Starting the year off in extended spring training as well. No rush, and he’s significantly more raw than Baez, so I won’t nitpick this much.

14. Miami — Jose Fernandez / RHP / Alonso HS (FL): This was higher than I thought Fernandez should have gone, but he’s looked very good to start the year, he probably won’t be in Greensboro much longer. There is that age question still hanging over his head, however.

15. Milwaukee — Jed Bradley / LHP / Georgia Tech: The breaking-ball is working, and he no longer plays behind a disaster of a defense. Add the two together and you see why he’s been so good to start the year.

16. Los Angeles-NL — Chris Reed / LHP / Stanford: Strikeout totals are good, everything else is not. Even if he was pitching like Bundy or Bradley, this would still be the worst pick of the first-round.

17. Los Angeles-AL — C.J. Cron / 1B / Utah: Lots of extra-base hits in a very hitter friendly ballpark, the only thing missing for Cron is the walks.

18. Oakland — Sonny Gray / RHP / Vanderbilt: I am a huge fan of Gray’s, but the walks have to come down if there’s any chance of him becoming a top of the rotation arm.

19. Boston — Matt Barnes / RHP / Connecticut: Of all the guys who are a level too low, Barnes is probably the most deserving of a promotion. He’s been great, but he’s a 21 year-old with plus stuff pitching in the Sally, that’s not exactly a challenge.

20. Colorado – Tyler Anderson / LHP / Oregon: After the pelvis injury last year, the Rockies are taking things very slowly. He’ll be in A-ball sometime next month, I assume.

21. Toronto — Tyler Beede / RHP / Lawrence Academy (MA): The only first-round pick who didn’t sign, currently at Vanderbilt.

22. St. Louis — Kolten Wong / 2B / Hawaii: I hated this pick last year, and so far, all Wong has done is made me look stupid.

23. Washington — Alex Meyer / RHP / Kentucky: He’s struggled early on, but again, no real reason for concern, his stuff is too good.

24. Tampa Bay – Taylor Guerrieri / RHP / Spring Valley HS (CA): Starting the year in extended spring-training, which shouldn’t shock anyone. There is zero rush with this type of arm.

25. San Diego — Joe Ross / RHP / Bishop O’Dowd HS (CA): His first start — seven runs and only four outs — was a disaster. His second start — one run over five innings with six strikeouts — was much more like it. It wouldn’t stun me at all if Ross was a quick advance, his mechanics and polish are outstanding.

26. Boston — Blake Swihart / C / Cleveland HS (NM): He’s showing good patience, but the hits aren’t dropping as of yet. Still stunned that twenty-five teams passed on him.

27. Cincinnati — Robert Stephenson / RHP / Alhambra HS (CA): Extending spring-training. No surprise or shock again, the mechanics need a lot of work.

28. Atlanta — Sean Gilmartin / LHP / Florida State: Only three strikeouts in twelve innings, but he is getting batters out. I have my doubts about whether or not that can continue.

29. San Francisco — Joe Panik / SS / St. John’s: Some of you will remember that I had Panik as one of my sleeper guys, but I was thinking more along the lines of the second or third round. That being said, he’s getting on base, and apparently playing a decent shortstop.

30. Minnesota — Levi Michael / SS / UNC: It’d be nice to see some extra-base hits, but when you get on-base forty-five percent of the time, you can’t really complain.

31. Tampa Bay — Mikie Mahtook / OF / LSU: He’s getting on-base, but a surprising lack of power so far. Have I mentioned that it’s really early yet?

32. Tampa Bay — Jake Hager / SS / Sierra Vista HS (NV): Struggling with the bat (.646 OPS) and glove (already three errors in thirty-five chances) to begin the year.

33. Texas — Kevin Matthews / LHP / Richmond Hill HS (GA): Extending spring-training. He’s light-years away.

I'm rarely right about baseball prospects (they're extremely hard to judge) but I can honestly say that I was one of, if not the, biggest supporter of his on the Blue Jays forum.

Although I knew the chances of the Jays picking him were basically zero, I was really hoping that, somehow, the Jays would pick him.

I love what he brings to the table, in terms of the position he plays and the bat he possesses. I'm a big fan.

jaysforever
04-17-2012, 09:30 PM
Here's a recent listing of the top 25 prospects for this draft from Baseball Instinct. Some good notes here;


http://baseballinstinct.com/2012/04/17/2012-mlb-draft-preview-1-25/

jaysforever
04-17-2012, 09:49 PM
Thanks JF. I did a search and this is about all I could find on some of the top DR prospects, nothing about Venezuela at this point.


Gustavo Cabrera-OF 6’1, 190lb, born on january 23 1996, La Romana, DR

Gustavo is a 5 tool player, his combination of plus speed, defense and power separate him from the pack. he runs a 6.3-6.4 60yard dash, defensively he posses average arm strength and is a plus fielder; he shows explosive and effortless fielding skills to track down fly balls in the outfield. gustavo has a short stroke and good bat speed, he’s a contact hitter middle away, he shows good balance and pitch recognition. he possesses tremendous raw power and i believe true power will come as he develops.

Amaury Miniel-SS 6’2 195lb San Cristobal, DR

miniel is a power bat from both sides of the plate, but more than likely will grow out the position and move to 3b or of.


Wandel Rijo-SS 5’11 170lb La Romana, DR

Rijo is probably the best all around ss to come out of the dr in recent years. he has solid defensive skills, hitting and running ability; he knows how to play the game and is a leader on the diamond. he’s a gap to gap hitter with below average power. his father is a pro scout.

Jairo Beras-OF 6’5 180lb San Pedro de Macorís

He is considered at the top of the ifa market, he shows plus power, running and defense abilities. his projection ceiling is off the charts.

Deive Grullon-C 6'0 180 turned 16 yrs in mid february, has all of the defensive tools to stand out, specially + + arm, very good blocking balls in the dirt.

Nice! Jays are going to be all over Cabrera and Beras. Too bad were limited to only $2.9mm. Wonder if they'll blow it on one guy or spread it around. With AA, it all comes down to the value!

Krylian
04-17-2012, 09:51 PM
Cabrera, Minier, Rijo, and Grullon are the big 4 as far as I'm concerned...at least from a Dominican perspective, with Cabrera being the runaway stud.

Sanyo
04-18-2012, 01:16 AM
Remember teams can also trade for international money of other teams. So if the Jays have something to offer a team contending (if they aren't doing so themselves) they can trade for intl money and i see that happening.

jaysdynastysoon
04-18-2012, 02:42 AM
Remember teams can also trade for international money of other teams. So if the Jays have something to offer a team contending (if they aren't doing so themselves) they can trade for intl money and i see that happening.

I looked the rules up. You can only add up to 50% of what your intl cap is. It's more than 2.9 mil if your a team lower in the standings. There are also slots with the cap, it's not just one transaction.

All of that is a bummer imo, we would have seen AA take full advantage of intl signings if these rules did not apply.

I couldn't find exactly what are the penalties if you go over. Does anyone know?

I hope AA goes after Gustavo Cabrera. Everything I read up on him, scouts have very high praise and believe he's going to be a star.

jaysforever
04-18-2012, 10:09 AM
Remember teams can also trade for international money of other teams. So if the Jays have something to offer a team contending (if they aren't doing so themselves) they can trade for intl money and i see that happening.

They can't do it this year. Everyone if fixed at 2.9. Next year, 2013, when the sliding scale comes in they can trade for more $$.

Sanyo
04-18-2012, 11:17 AM
They can't do it this year. Everyone if fixed at 2.9. Next year, 2013, when the sliding scale comes in they can trade for more $$.

My mistake thought it started this year.

Krylian
04-19-2012, 02:27 PM
I wanted the Jays to grab Nick Travieso with a comp round pick when he was around 95...but he's since had a velocity jump. A name to keep in mind.

PerfectGame Blog (16-Apr-2012):

RHP Nick Travieso (Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL) also continues to improve this spring. After peaking at 94-95 last summer and fall, the strongly built RHP was up to 98/99 over the weekend to go along with his power breaking ball.

Sanyo
04-19-2012, 08:08 PM
Hate drafting shortstops. They are the biggest gambles and most of them never pan out. Pitching, Catching and someone who has potential to man centre field are best.

Toxeryll
04-19-2012, 11:07 PM
Hate drafting shortstops. They are the biggest gambles and most of them never pan out. Pitching, Catching and someone who has potential to man centre field are best.

yup agree. i like highschool flamethrowers and speedy centerfielders.

Krylian
04-19-2012, 11:10 PM
Travieso has some pretty good helium lately, apparently up to 98 now. My only concern is the slight effort in his delivery. Jays usually like guys with smooth clean arm actions.

I might agree if he were a 21 year old College Junior but as an 18 year old I feel there's lots of time to smooth out his delivery and mechanics.

ILDD
04-23-2012, 11:46 AM
I'm rarely right about baseball prospects (they're extremely hard to judge) but I can honestly say that I was one of, if not the, biggest supporter of his on the Blue Jays forum.

Although I knew the chances of the Jays picking him were basically zero, I was really hoping that, somehow, the Jays would pick him.

I love what he brings to the table, in terms of the position he plays and the bat he possesses. I'm a big fan.

I loved Wong too, I didn't think he'd go as high as he did and was praying for him to fall to the Jays' next pick.

He's someone I'm following in St Louis system with interest and I get a quite sellf-satisified smug grin with how he's doing so far.:hi5:

BlueJayz
04-25-2012, 06:05 PM
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/4/24/2972933/mlb-2012-draft-high-school-shortstops

jaysforever
04-27-2012, 06:51 PM
MLB Draft Insider has updated their top 25:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2012/04/the-board-volume-vi/


There's also a really good Draft Chat at this link. Scroll down and hit on Draft Chat replay. Some good comments on who's moving up and down the board.

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/

Krylian
04-27-2012, 09:11 PM
MLB Draft Insider has updated their top 25:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2012/04/the-board-volume-vi/


There's also a really good Draft Chat at this link. Scroll down and hit on Draft Chat replay. Some good comments on who's moving up and down the board.

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/

#17 Trahan
#22 Dahl

That's wet dream worthy.

jaysforever
04-28-2012, 07:13 PM
#17 Trahan
#22 Dahl

That's wet dream worthy.

K..BA says there are concerns about Dahl that he may not be speedy enough for CF, nor have enough power for the corners. I kind of think the jays will only take a position player with one of these 2 first round picks if he projects as something really good, otherwise they are likely to go with 2 pitchers.

I'm hoping Correa slips. Almora and Cecchini have been getting a lot of love lately and maybe 1 would be available. I also love the power of Hawkins. Trahan looks good too. But i don't know if these latter guys are going to be better value than the high upside power arms they will be looking at. I certainly wouldn't mind 2 power arms! Lots of guys in the mix and it looks like there will be two excellent arms available. I'm sure this will come into clearer focus over the next few weeks.

Krylian
04-28-2012, 07:27 PM
K..BA says there are concerns about Dahl that he may not be speedy enough for CF, nor have enough power for the corners. I kind of think the jays will only take a position player with one of these 2 first round picks if he projects as something really good, otherwise they are likely to go with 2 pitchers.

I'm hoping Correa slips. Almora and Cecchini have been getting a lot of love lately and maybe 1 would be available. I also love the power of Hawkins. Trahan looks good too. But i don't know if these latter guys are going to be better value than the high upside power arms they will be looking at. I certainly wouldn't mind 2 power arms! Lots of guys in the mix and it looks like there will be two excellent arms available. I'm sure this will come into clearer focus over the next few weeks.

Ya. I've read those concerns. But I've also read too many good things about him. Perfect Game also has concerns about Buxton's hit tool and power potential. Say they've yet to see him homer in a game and have concerns, but he's a freak athlete so everyone gives him a pass.

Correa is one of the Top 7 for sure. Some are thinking he might even go in the top 3. Many reports have him better than Machado at the same age. I'd love him too, but it's a pipe dream. I was also hoping Archie Bradley slipped to the Jays at 21 last year but that was just misguided hope.

I also love Almora...but I doubt he gets to us at #17. Some thinking he may even be gone in the Top 10...I think more in the 11-15 range though. There's always a chance, but I'm not optimistic.

Sanyo
04-29-2012, 10:58 AM
Wow Lucas Giolito is out of the top 25? What's the status on his arm, must be more serious if he's not even there...

Maybe the Jays should take a chance and take him if he lands in their laps? May be able to steal him and even though he loses 1st pick money, he should be lucky someone is taking a chance to draft him within the 1st round (but maybe he wont)..

Sanyo
04-29-2012, 10:59 AM
Jays should go with 2 high school arms again in the 1st round unless like someone else said they land a guy who's got tools to be above average. Jays will likely draft an outfielder within supplementary draft anyways.

jaysforever
04-29-2012, 11:34 AM
Giolotti is off the list as a 'wait and see' approach until he hears more.

DeRozan10
04-29-2012, 01:09 PM
Jays should go with 2 high school arms again in the 1st round unless like someone else said they land a guy who's got tools to be above average. Jays will likely draft an outfielder within supplementary draft anyways.

Im with you on that one. I wouldnt be upset at all if the Jays used every pick on the best pitcher available.

BlueJayz
04-29-2012, 01:52 PM
Im with you on that one. I wouldnt be upset at all if the Jays used every pick on the best pitcher available.

I'm not sure they'd do that, but imagine how deep our young pitching would be if we picked pitchers in the 1st and supplemental. Here's who I'd like to see.

17) Zach Eflin RHP 6'5 200 (89-91, peak 93, plus CH, big projection)
22) Ty Buttery RHP 6'6 210 (up to 94, plus CU, big projection)
50) Shane Watson RHP 6'4 195 (up to 93, plus CU, big projection)
58) Jose Berrios RHP 6'1 187 (89-93, peak 98, plus change, good command)
60) Kevin McCanna RHP 6'1 185 (90-92, peak 94, plus CU, plus CH)
81) Alec Rash RHP 6'5 190 (89-90, peak 94, plus projection)

(Alternate)
Nick Travieso RHP 6'3 210 (92-93, peak 98)
Tyler Gonzales RHP 6'2 180 (90-92, plus-plus slider)
Alec Rash RHP 6'5 190 (89-90, peak 94, plus projection)

Like I said, probably won't happen, but that would be quite the haul.

BlueJayz
04-29-2012, 02:00 PM
K..BA says there are concerns about Dahl that he may not be speedy enough for CF, nor have enough power for the corners. I kind of think the jays will only take a position player with one of these 2 first round picks if he projects as something really good, otherwise they are likely to go with 2 pitchers.

I would love it if we got Dahl and Trahan in the 1st, but I've also heard concerns about Dahl's ability to stay in centerfield.

I'm not quite sure what the scout's concern is though, is it his range or instincts, cause his speed (6.49 time in the 60) would grade out as a 70 on a scouting scale, and his arm registers 95 mph from the outfield.
(http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=153878)

By way of comparison Anthony Gose's best recorded 60 time was 6.51 and his throws from the outfield have registered 96 mph.
(http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=47587)

Based on the alone I would say he has a chance. And if his game in any way resembles Johnny Damon or Jacoby Ellesbury who he's been compared to, I'd be pretty happy.

Krylian
04-29-2012, 02:02 PM
I'm not sure they'd do that, but imagine how deep our young pitching would be if we picked pitchers in the 1st and supplemental. Here's who I'd like to see.

17) Zach Eflin RHP 6'5 200 (89-91, peak 93, plus CH, big projection)
22) Ty Buttery RHP 6'6 210 (up to 94, plus CU, big projection)
50) Shane Watson RHP 6'4 195 (up to 93, plus CU, big projection)
58) Jose Berrios RHP 6'1 187 (89-93, peak 98, plus change, good command)
60) Kevin McCanna RHP 6'1 185 (90-92, peak 94, plus CU, plus CH)

(Alternate)
Nick Travieso RHP 6'3 210 (92-93, peak 98)
Tyler Gonzales RHP 6'2 180 (90-92, plus-plus slider)
Alec Rash RHP 6'5 190 (89-90, peak 94, plus projection)

Eflin has been getting up to 95 regularly this spring...which is why he's rocketing up most draft boards.

Buttrey was also touching 95-96 early this spring.

Watson has touched 95-96 this spring as well.

Travieso has hit 98-99 a few times this spring and has moved up to being the 2nd hardest throwing HS arm (behind Giolito).

Gonzales has been up to 95 a few times and a mention of 96 as well.

I haven't seen anything above 94 for Rash as well.

---

There are a lot of power arms in this draft.

Krylian
04-29-2012, 02:04 PM
I would love it if we got Dahl and Trahan in the 1st, but I've also heard concerns about Dahl's ability to stay in centerfield.

I'm not quite sure what the scout's concern is though, is it his range or instincts, cause his speed (6.49 time in the 60) would grade out as a 70 on a scouting scale, and his arm registers 95 mph from the outfield.
(http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=153878)

By way of comparison Anthony Gose's best recorded 60 time was 6.51 and his throws from the outfield have registered 96 mph.
(http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=47587)

Based on the alone I would say he has a chance. And if his game in any way resembles Johnny Damon or Jacoby Ellesbury who he's been compared to, I'd be pretty happy.

I heard it was a speed this with Dahl...which I don't necessarily buy. Most reports have him sticking in CF. The comparison I've heard most with him is Colby Rasmus in terms of talent and sweet swing.

jaysforever
04-29-2012, 05:37 PM
Here's a video of Dahl at the Perfect games competition. It's easy to see he doesn't have that wiry lean frame you might want to see from a CFielder. At 6'2" and aleady at 190lbs and with a good sized frame it's easy to see he could fill out more adding weight and losing speed, hence the concern he may not stick in CF. I like him though. Real good looking athlete, not unlike Marisnick in stature.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnFG7t0CHyU

jaysforever
05-02-2012, 04:55 PM
BA had a draft chat today. Some really good stuff:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1335973158

BlueJayz
05-02-2012, 05:21 PM
Good stuff, thanks for posting.

Krylian
05-07-2012, 12:34 PM
Jim Callis provides the slot bonuses for the entire 1st round today.

1 Astros $7,200,000
2 Twins $6,200,000
3 Mariners $5,200,000
4 Orioles $4,200,000
5 Royals $3,500,000
6 Cubs $3,250,000
7 Padres $3,000,000
8 Pirates $2,900,000
9 Marlins $2,800,000
10 Rockies $2,700,000
11 Athletics $2,625,000
12 Mets $2,550,000
13 White Sox $2,475,000
14 Reds $2,375,000
15 Indians $2,250,000
16 Nationals $2,125,000
17 Blue Jays $2,000,000
18 Dodgers $1,950,000
19 Cardinals $1,900,000
20 Giants $1,850,000
21 Braves $1,825,000
22 Blue Jays $1,800,000
23 Cardinals $1,775,000
24 Red Sox $1,750,000
25 Rays $1,725,000
26 Diamondbacks $1,700,000
27 Brewers $1,675,000
28 Brewers $1,650,000
29 Rangers $1,625,000
30 Yankees $1,600,000
31 Red Sox $1,575,000

Krylian
05-08-2012, 04:23 PM
Keith Law's Top 100 Draft prospects is out. Anyone out there an Insider?

jaysforever
05-08-2012, 04:28 PM
Keith Law's Top 100 Draft prospects is out. Anyone out there an Insider?

Yes...please post!

In the meantime, here's MLB Draft Countdown's latest top 20 HS guys with some good comments from recent performance. We figure to get 2 of these guys unless AA digs up someone from lower down.

http://mlbdraftcountdown.wordpress.com/2012-mlb-draft/top-20-high-school-prospects/

jaysforever
05-10-2012, 09:10 AM
More draft chat. Their first mock should be up today or tomorrow:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2012/2613361.html

Krylian
05-10-2012, 09:17 AM
There's a Draft/Prospects chat going on today at Perfect Game at 1pm CDT if anyone's interested.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6991

rubeus
05-10-2012, 10:14 AM
I like the idea of hunter virant.

We need a lhp.

jaysforever
05-10-2012, 07:25 PM
Mock Draft: Version 1.0

Trying to sort out a muddled class

By Jim Callis
May 10, 2012

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Teams picking at the top of the 2012 draft privately lament their options. There isn't an obvious choice like Stephen Strasburg in 2009 or Bryce Harper in 2010, and there isn't an embarrassment of riches like there was a year ago. There were seven No. 1 overall pick-caliber talents available in 2011, and teams gobbled up Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, Bubba Starling, Anthony Rendon and Archie Bradley with the first seven selections.

This spring, Georgia high school center fielder Byron Buxton has emerged as the consensus talent and compares favorably with Starling, his parallel as 2011's best athlete available. But the college position player crop drops off sharply after Florida catcher Michael Zunino, and the college pitchers aren't in the same class as Cole, Hultzen and Bauer. With this year's top high school pitcher (righthander Lucas Giolito from California) spraining an elbow ligament in March and not taking the mound since, there's no prep arm close to Bundy or Bradley.

"This is one of the most volatile, erratic and weak drafts I can remember," an American League front-office executive said. "The college position players have got to be the weakest group in 20 years. I've had some veteran guys tell me it's the worst ever."

Add in the most significant changes to the draft rules in years, and there may be more first-round surprises than usual. The news rules will impose severe penalties on clubs that exceed their assigned bonus pools for the first 10 rounds by 5 percent or more. So teams looking to move money around may make budget-minded picks at the top of the draft in order to give the savings to players who fall because of signability.

Our initial first-round projection doesn't include Giolito. With little more than three weeks remaining until the June 4-6 draft, his health and bonus desires are too much of a wild card to determine which teams might be willing to gamble on someone who had a chance to become the first high school righthander ever chosen No. 1 overall.

1. ASTROS: Houston is focusing on Buxton, Zunino and the three best college pitchers (Stanford's Mark Appel, Louisiana State's Kevin Gausman and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer). Scouting director Bobby Heck has taken an up-the-middle position player with his top pick in each of his four drafts, and he and his staff are believed to favor Buxton, a five-tool center fielder. Rumors persist that the Astros' higher-ups—new owner Jim Crane and new general manager Jeff Luhnow—prefer an arm who could help soon and fit at the front of their rotation.
Projected Pick: MARK APPEL.

2. TWINS: Minnesota needs plenty of pitching help too, but it will set its draft board and take the best player available. That should be Buxton, though Zunino would enable the Twins to shift Joe Mauer to a less taxing position.
Projected Pick: BYRON BUXTON.

3. MARINERS: Seattle is loaded with pitching prospects and needs offense, so a bat would seem to be the obvious choice. That was the case in 2011 as well, when the Mariners crossed up the industry by selecting Hultzen at No. 2. They seem to be locked in on Buxton, Zunino and Puerto Rican high school shortstop Carlos Correa. Correa draws comparisons to Troy Tulowitzki, whom Seattle was set to take in this slot seven years ago before making a late switch to . . . Jeff Clement.
Projected Pick: MIKE ZUNINO.

4. ORIOLES: Baltimore is looking at the same hitters as the teams at the top of the draft, but unless Buxton or Zunino falls, it likely will opt for one of the three college arms. The Orioles are the first club mentioned with Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero, but that seems like a reach given Marrero's offensive struggles this spring.
Projected Pick: KYLE ZIMMER.

5. ROYALS: Kansas City picked in this spot last year and missed out on the advanced pitcher it coveted when Cole, Hultzen, Bauer and Bundy went with the first four choices. The Royals will try again in 2012, and one of the three top-tier college arms should be available. If Appel, Gausman and Zimmer all disappear, Kansas City's best bet would be Zunino.
Projected Pick: KEVIN GAUSMAN.

6. CUBS: Once Appel, Gausman and Zimmer are chosen, there will be a run on position players, most of whom will be high schoolers. Chicago's pick could come down to Correa and polished Florida high school center fielder Albert Almora. The Cubs took another prep shortstop of Puerto Rican descent (Javier Baez) at No. 9 a year ago.
Projected Pick: ALBERT ALMORA.

7. PADRES: San Diego would prefer to take a bat here, likely from among a group that includes Zunino, Correa and Clemson third baseman Richie Shaffer. The Padres also could be tempted by a pitcher like Duke righthander Marcus Stroman, who's 5-foot-9 but has the most electric stuff in the draft, or Giolito's teammate Max Fried, a lefthander whose performance was slipping in early May.
Projected Pick: CARLOS CORREA.

8. PIRATES: After spending $14.5 million in bonuses on righthanders Jameson Taillon (No. 2 overall, 2010) and Cole (No. 1 overall, 2011), Pittsburgh seeks a position player. The Pirates have been searching for a shortstop for years, which may lead them to Marrero, a gifted defender and one of the few locks to stay at the position in this draft.
Projected Pick: DEVEN MARRERO.

9. MARLINS: It's easy to peg Stroman as a reliever because of his size, but his 93-95 mph fastball and dastardly slider probably aren't getting past the first 10 selections. Miami also could go for a high school position player such as Almora, Correa or David Dahl, a center fielder from Alabama. Given the many Oklahoma connections in the Marlins' front office, don't rule out Oklahoma State lefthander Andrew Heaney or Oklahoma prep righthander Ty Hensley.
Projected Pick: MARCUS STROMAN.

10. ROCKIES: Colorado has had limited success taking pitchers with its top choice in five of the last six drafts. The Rockies are zeroing in on hitters and would love Almora, but they may have to settle for a slightly lesser version in Dahl.
Projected Pick: DAVID DAHL.

11. ATHLETICS: Oakland's strength is pitching, yet the top options here will be Stroman or Fried unless other arms go higher than expected. If the draft plays out as projected here and the A's want an impact bat, Texas high school outfielder Courtney Hawkins, North Carolina prep third baseman Corey Seager and Shaffer would be the best available.
Projected Pick: MAX FRIED.

12. METS: At this point of the first round, teams will react to which players fall to them. New York is the first club strongly linked to Hawkins, Louisiana high school shortstop Gavin Cecchini and Texas A&M righthander Michael Wacha.
Projected Pick: GAVIN CECCHINI.

13. WHITE SOX: If general manager Kenny Williams thinks his team can contend, Chicago figures to go for more immediate help from the second tier of college arms (Heaney, Wacha and Mississippi State righthander Chris Stratton). If Williams decided he has to move forward with rebuilding, the White Sox will go for a higher-ceiling, longer-term project such as Hawkins or injured Ohio high school lefthander Matt Smoral.
Projected Pick: COURTNEY HAWKINS.

14. REDS: Cincinnati is monitoring the same pitchers Chicago is, and the polished Wacha would help the Reds' big league rotation in short order. (It's also possible that Wacha could sneak into the top 10 somewhere.) College bats the Reds might consider include Shaffer and Texas A&M outfielder Tyler Naquin.
Projected Pick: MICHAEL WACHA.

15. INDIANS: Cleveland took a college or junior college product with its first choice in nine straight drafts before selecting prep shortstop Francisco Lindor in 2011. The Indians will get back in their comfort zone, probably with a college arm to replace the two first-rounders (Alex White, Drew Pomeranz) they sent to the Rockies in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal last summer. If Wacha and Heaney are gone, the Tribe could turn to Shaffer or Stanford outfielder/third baseman Stephen Piscotty.
Projected Pick: ANDREW HEANEY.

16. NATIONALS: After picking in the top 10 in the last four drafts (first overall in 2009 and 2010) and spending aggressively ($16.35 million on its top four choices in 2011), Washington is shopping in a new neighborhood. Stratton commands four average or better pitches and would be the best value on the board in this scenario.
Projected Pick: CHRIS STRATTON.

17. BLUE JAYS: Since taking over as Toronto general manager in October 2009, Alex Anthopoulos has stockpiled high-ceiling athletes. With that focus and five of the first 60 selections, the Blue Jays are the most logical candidate to gamble on Giolito. Some teams aren't sold that Florida high school righthander Lance McCullers Jr. is a starter rather than a reliever, but he has top-shelf stuff with a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider.
Projected Pick: LANCE McCULLERS JR.

18. DODGERS: Los Angeles has popped pitchers with its top pick in the last nine drafts and has been bearing down on numerous high school arms in the Southeast, including righthander Walker Weickel from Florida. The Dodgers could really use some bats, however, and Seager had as much helium as any first-round candidate in early May.
Projected Pick: COREY SEAGER.

19. CARDINALS: Though St. Louis has a reputation for liking college performers, it used its first selections on the best player available in seven drafts under Luhnow before he left for Houston. That philosophy won't change under new scouting director Dan Kantrovitz, who could choose between the likes of Naquin, Piscotty, Seager, Shaffer or Mississippi high school center fielder D.J. Davis. This is the first of two first-round picks the Cardinals have this year, this one courtesy of the Angels as compensation for the Albert Pujols signing.
Projected Pick: RICHIE SHAFFER.

20. GIANTS: San Francisco won the 2010 World Series and continues to contend thanks to its savvy in developing young arms. The Giants could go back to that blueprint with a Florida high school righthander such as Weickel or Nick Travieso.
Projected Pick: NICK TRAVIESO.

21. BRAVES: Atlanta's modus operandi in the last two drafts has been to grab players it get under contract quickly and easily. Georgia Southern outfielder Victor Roache could fit that profile after missing most of the season with a broken left wrist, and he could be a steal here as the best college power hitter in the draft. Given scouting director Tony DeMacio's affinity for lefthanders, Florida's Brian Johnson or Georgia's Alex Wood are possibilities.
Projected Pick: VICTOR ROACHE.

22. BLUE JAYS: Few players in this draft can match the ceiling or helium of Davis, a speedster with a promising bat. Toronto also could take a chance on someone like Smoral or Florida high school righthander Zach Eflin, who might not have lasted this long if he hadn't missed a month with triceps tendinitis. This is the only supplemental pick of the first round this year, one the Blue Jays get for failing to sign Tyler Beede at No. 21 overall out of last year's draft.
Projected Pick: D.J. DAVIS.

23. CARDINALS: Unless St. Louis is sitting on a pitcher—perhaps Eflin or Oklahoma prep righthander Ty Hensley—it probably will get another hitter with its second first-rounder. Cape Cod League batting champion Piscotty could be the most attractive option, especially if the Cardinals believe he could play third base.
Projected Pick: STEPHEN PISCOTTY.

24. RED SOX: Boston has been as aggressive as any team in recent drafts. While the new rules will force the Red Sox to tone down their approach, that doesn't mean they can't pick their spots to be bold. This could be one of those, as Smoral would have gone in the upper half of the first round had he not had surgery to repair a broken a bone in his right foot in April.
Projected Pick: MATT SMORAL.

25. RAYS: After having a record 12 selections in the first two rounds in 2011, Tampa Bay will have to make its picks count now with no extra choices and a relatively small $3.8 million bonus pool for the top 10 rounds. The Rays develop high school pitchers as well as anyone, and Hensley could give them another potential frontline starter.
Projected Pick: TY HENSLEY.

26. DIAMONDBACKS: Because he's the best pure hitter in this draft and has a track record of college success, a guy like Naquin usually wouldn't last this long. Some clubs see him as a tweener, but a player with a plus bat and arm to go with solid speed would be a nice value here.
Projected Pick: TYLER NAQUIN.

27. BREWERS: After including Alcides Escobar in the Zack Greinke trade, Milwaukee needs a shortstop, and Florida prepster Addison Russell has a better chance to stick at the position after dropping 20 pounds since last summer. With his plus speed, he could develop along the lines of J.J. Hardy—the last Brewers shortstop to reach the All-Star Game. The Brewers get back-to-back picks, with this one coming from the Tigers as compensation for signing Prince Fielder.
Projected Pick: ADDISON RUSSELL.

28. BREWERS: Milwaukee struck it rich with a big-bodied high school slugger in Prince Fielder in 2002's first round, and could hope for a repeat with another in Nevada prep third baseman Joey Gallo. He has as much raw power as anyone in this draft, and offers a fallback option as a pitcher with a fastball that has been clocked up to 98 mph.
Projected Pick: JOEY GALLO.

29. RANGERS: Texas has built baseball's best farm system by collecting premium arms and athletes. High school righthander J.O. Berrios put himself into first-round consideration after throwing 93-94 mph and touching 96 at Puerto Rico's Excellence Tournament.
Projected Pick: J.O. BERRIOS.

30. YANKEES: New York is known for valuing offense over defense in its catching profile, which could lead it to Louisiana prepster Stryker Trahan. He's a physical, athletic masher who will need time to develop behind the plate.
Projected Pick: STRYKER TRAHAN.

31. RED SOX: Boston gets a second first-rounder after losing Jonathan Papelbon to the Phillies in the offseason and may look at shortstop, where it hasn't had a long-term solution since trading Nomar Garciaparra in 2004. Florida's Nolan Fontana isn't flashy, but he gets the job done with steady tools across the board.
Projected Pick: NOLAN FONTANA.

Billyen
05-13-2012, 06:21 AM
Wow. 2012 draft is only 3 weeks away. That snuck up on me.

From everything I'm seeing...a very,very weak draft...we should have signed Beede.

ILDD
05-13-2012, 09:29 AM
I love draft time - I guess my boss hates it as I spend hours researching possible draft picks!

This draft should be much better with the reduced time between draft day and signing deadline day, really used to annoy me that the draft happened in June and you didn't see most of the draftees play any pro-baseball until the following year.

Krylian
05-13-2012, 09:29 AM
Wow. 2012 draft is only 3 weeks away. That snuck up on me.

From everything I'm seeing...a very,very weak draft...we should have signed Beede.

He wanted more than the 3rd overall pick signed for. Eff Beede.

Sanyo
05-13-2012, 09:41 AM
He wanted more than the 3rd overall pick signed for. Eff Beede.

PLus he's been pretty horrible this year at Vanderbilt, though he's picked it up the last few starts...

Sanyo
05-13-2012, 09:44 AM
Jays will likely go with high school arms and I prefer that anyways since many the Jays have choosen have been pretty good so far...

Eagles4Lyfe
05-13-2012, 10:12 AM
2 picks in the first 25 should give us nice high end prospects who we can afford to take risks on something not many teams in the top 25 can do.
With that said it also gives us more ammo and provides us with more trade bait:D

Bigred91
05-13-2012, 10:45 AM
With all the rule changes pertaining to the draft, they should have made it mandatory for high schoolers to declare that they are entering the draft. Either you want to play pro ball or you don't. Enough of the signability games. Having said that, I do think that pitchers should and will be the focus.

KaiserSose
05-14-2012, 11:02 AM
Keith Law's Top 100 Draft prospects is out. Anyone out there an Insider?

I am but will only post top 10 since it is insider. Mods can delete if it is against the ToC's


Byron BuxtonCF6-1175
High school: Appling H.S., Baxley, Ga.
Analysis: He's still on top of most scouts' individual preferred lists, with game-altering speed, an incredibly athletic body, a plus arm and a swing that produces a lot of contact and should lead to future power, although he has just one home run this spring. He's risky and no lock to go first overall, but a player who earns comparisons to Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and other superstars has to be a strong consideration up top.
Previous ranking: 1 | 1

Carlos Correa SS6-4190
High school: Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Santa Isabel, P.R.
Analysis: A strong showing at last week's Tournament of Excellence helped Correa's cause, as does the fact he's a true 17-year-old with big power potential who should have no trouble staying in the infield.
Previous ranking: 5 | 6

Kevin Gausman RHP6-4185
Analysis: I could make a case for Gausman, Mark Appel or Kyle Zimmer as the top college arm, but Gausman is flashing two plus secondary pitches now and getting ground balls and has the velocity to match the other guys, not to mention better results as a sophomore in the nation's best conference.
Previous ranking: 6 | 5

Mike ZuninoC6-2215
Analysis: He's still the best college bat in this draft, but that he's hitting .244 AVG/.314 OBP/.456 SLG in the SEC (and doesn't have to face his staff) isn't helping his case.
Previous ranking: 2 | 7

Max Fried LHP6-3170
High school: Harvard-Westlake, Studio City, Calif.
Analysis: Scouts love this guy -- more than one national guy has told me he'd consider Fried at No. 1 overall. Highly projectable, athletic lefty who can really spin a breaking ball.
Previous ranking: 9 | 8

Mark AppelRHP6-5215
Analysis: For various small reasons, industry sentiment on Appel seems to have cooled slightly, and I don't think it's a coincidence that it started the week after he threw 149 pitches against Oregon on April 13.
Previous ranking: 3 | 3

Albert Almora OF6-2170
High school: Mater Academy Charter, Hialeah, Fla.
Analysis: Smooth swing, future plus defender in center, good makeup, just turned 18 a few weeks ago.
Previous ranking: 8 | 27

Kyle ZimmerRHP6-4220
Analysis: He missed his last start with a hamstring strain; didn't have the same plus velocity the three starts before that. One to watch when he returns, as he could move up or down quickly.
Previous ranking: 4 | 18

Luc Giolito RHP6-6230
High school: Harvard-Westlake, Studio City, Calif.
Analysis: He's missed most of the season with a minor elbow injury. If the medicals check out, and early indications are that his elbow is as "fine" as can be under the circumstances, I think he'll go off the board pretty high. A fully healthy Giolito probably would have been atop this list.
Previous ranking: 11 | 2

Courtney Hawkins OF6-3210
High school: Carroll H.S., Corpus Christi, Texas
Analysis: There have been consistent reports that Hawkins has improved as a hitter this spring, particularly in his approach. I see some risk and some aspects of the swing to try to smooth out or quiet down, but there's explosiveness here that only Buxton can match.
Previous ranking: 18 | 25

Eagles4Lyfe
05-14-2012, 02:07 PM
Thanks for that bro can you post the next 10:p I wanan see who the Jays can target at their pick

KaiserSose
05-16-2012, 11:08 AM
Thanks for that bro can you post the next 10:p I wanan see who the Jays can target at their pick



17. Toronto Blue JaysGavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe, H.S. (Lake Charles, La.)
The younger brother of Red Sox third-base prospect Garin Cecchini is a better hitting and fielding prospect. Also hearing the Jays linked to Florida prep righty Nick Travieso, Louisiana high school catcher Stryker Trahan, Mississippi high school outfielder D.J. Davis and Gallo. In other words, the Blue Jays sound like they're going for ceiling.



22. Toronto Blue JaysNick Travieso, RHP, Archbishop McCarthy H.S. (Southwest Ranches, Fla.)
This is a compensation pick the Blue Jays got for failing to sign first-rounder Tyler Beede a year ago. (Beede ended up at Vanderbilt.) In addition to Travieso, I've also heard Toronto linked to Georgia high school right-hander Duane Underwood, but more likely in the sandwich round.

Eagles4Lyfe
05-16-2012, 03:06 PM
Thanks for that and just like we expected since we have immediate talent ready to come up from the minors we can easily aim for the ceiling.
Doesn't suprise me their targetting more pitchers lol but the catcher one is interesting

ChongInc.
05-16-2012, 04:01 PM
Really like the idea of going with a ceiling bat early.

Mr. Baller
05-16-2012, 11:31 PM
Travieso is a stud. Has topped at 99 MPH this season

Krylian
05-16-2012, 11:40 PM
Travieso is a stud. Has topped at 99 MPH this season

I've liked Travieso for a while and was hoping the Jays would consider him in the supplemental but he'll be gone by then. Taking him in the 1st rd would be too early.

Concerns with him are that he has some effort in his delivery and some think he may end up in the pen.

KaiserSose
05-17-2012, 11:16 AM
Thanks for that and just like we expected since we have immediate talent ready to come up from the minors we can easily aim for the ceiling.
Doesn't suprise me their targetting more pitchers lol but the catcher one is interesting

No problem. I would like to post more but I wouldn't feel right since it is insider content. No real surprises in that they will just go with ceiling.


I've liked Travieso for a while and was hoping the Jays would consider him in the supplemental but he'll be gone by then. Taking him in the 1st rd would be too early.

Concerns with him are that he has some effort in his delivery and some think he may end up in the pen.

Does he have any issues with command? Secondary pitches?

Krylian
05-17-2012, 12:06 PM
No problem. I would like to post more but I wouldn't feel right since it is insider content. No real surprises in that they will just go with ceiling.

Does he have any issues with command? Secondary pitches?

I'll have to back off a little on my earlier opinion...I just read a scouting report that was published on the 15th...Sounds like his secondary stuff is improving. I know he had a good slider but sounds like he's working on a changeup and other secondary stuff seems to be improving. Working on a 2-seamer also and there's talk that his "reliever only" label might have been a bit pre-mature.

Thinking he might be able to sneak into the back end of the 1st round.

Krylian
05-17-2012, 12:24 PM
For anyone interested....There's a chat at Perfect Game today at 2pm EST.

Chat: Talking MLB draft/prospects
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=7023

jaysforever
05-22-2012, 03:28 PM
DJ Davis is one of the guys in the mix for the BJ's in the first round. BA posted some video of him today. Definitely the second coming of Anthony Gose!


http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/05/draft-video-d-j-davis/

Here's his scouting report:

20. D.J. Davis, of
Stone HS, Wiggins, Miss.

Davis is fighting a difficult profile out of Mississippi. The state has produced 32 first-round and supplemental first-round picks since the draft's inception. But the only players drafted out of the Magnolia State in the first round who signed out of high school and reached the majors are outfielder Don Castle (1968 draft), who played four games in 1973, and Steve Pegues (1987 draft), who had a 100-game career. In fact, infielders Charlie Hayes (1983) and Bill Hall (1998) have had the best careers of Mississippi prep products in draft history. That history may move Davis down some draft boards, but his talent puts him squarely in the first round. He's faster even than Reds prospect Billy Hamilton, the state's current standard-bearer, turning in 6.4-second 60 times, and has more than enough range for center field, with below-average but playable arm strength. Moreover, Davis has good strength in his hands and forearms, with a real chance to hit for average. He's fast enough to be a slap hitter but isn't one. He has an old-fashioned handsy, whippy swing and has shown gap power and consistent hard contact against good competition, such as at East Coast Showcase and playing for the Mets scout team in the fall. He has better instincts more polish than the average Mississippi prep player, which gives some ammunition to counter the state's track record in the first round. He's considered signable, having committed to Meridian (Miss.) CC.

Krylian
05-22-2012, 03:32 PM
I think Davis can definitely be had for below slot. He doesn't really have that much leverage as he doesn't have a committment to any sort of big University. I think he'd be attending a JUCO if he doesn't sign. If they can save a bit on him and maybe another player, that gives them a change to go after another highly regarded name that may slip.

Also, I figure the Jays have another $440K or so in extra coin they can spend if they want to push the limits of that first 5% (luxury tax only) so that's also an option.

jaysforever
05-22-2012, 06:03 PM
I figure the jays could pony up $3mm pretty easily if Giolitto slips, and is looking for that kind of money. Slot at 17 is $2mm, plus the 400k overage, and then they could sign a cheapy (like the coaches son!) at 60, which has a slot of about $850k. So $2mm plus 400k plus say 750k easily puts them over $3mm.

Not saying he's going to slip to us, but just thinking that if teams didn't get a good enough feel for him after his injury and he came out and said he'd sign for $3mm, he could easily get past the top picks which have that sort of slot, who may want more of a sure thing Zunino, Buxton, Gausman etc...

Well...we can dream on it for now!

phillipmike
05-23-2012, 12:50 AM
This would be my dream first round.

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft-2012

Pride
05-23-2012, 02:34 AM
I doubt Giolito slips that far, but one can always dream.

es0terik
05-24-2012, 02:14 AM
Wow, Giolito and Gallo, that would be an amazing first round, especially in this draft. The Jays are in the perfect position to make a gamble on Giolito, the exact same way they made a fairly early gamble on Stilson last year.

Of course someone can come and pick him up in those first 16 picks but many people seem to think that the Jays have the best chance of picking AND signing Giolito.

Sanyo
05-24-2012, 04:39 AM
I like going with high school pitching the most, hopefully the Jays stack up...

wings
05-24-2012, 08:20 AM
Thanks guys.

Anyone want to guess the Jays budget? Maybe there's a list of all the teams budgets. That would be cool.

Here is a very comprehensive breakdown from BA; free content.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2012/2613426.html

jaysforever
05-26-2012, 08:32 AM
Here's BA's 2nd mock draft:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/05/mock-draft-v2-0-list-only/

Key jays sections:

17. BLUE JAYS. Toronto is willing to put the development time in on high-ceiling high schoolers and will have any number to select from here: Dahl, outfielder D.J. Davis (Mississippi), Gallo, outfielder/catcher Stryker Trahan (Louisiana) and infielder Tanner Rahier (California) as well as righthanders Sims, Nick Travieso (Florida) and Zach Eflin (Florida). McCullers would be an obvious choice if he's still on the board. And with the highest pair of first-round picks of any team (17 and 22), the Blue Jays have the best chance to gamble on and pay Giolito if he plummets from the top of the draft.
Projected Pick: DAVID DAHL.

18. DODGERS. Los Angeles could make it 10 straight drafts in which it has spent its top pick on a pitcher. Besides all of the prep arms mentioned with the Blue Jays, the Dodgers also could take Hensley or righthanders Walker Weickel (Florida) and J.O. Berrios (Puerto Rico).
Projected Pick: TY HENSLEY.

19. CARDINALS (from Angels for Albert Pujols). Shaffer doesn't figure to last this long on June 4, and if he does, St. Louis probably won't try to sneak him through to its second first-rounder at No. 23. Other position-player candidates include Piscotty, Gallo and North Carolina high school third baseman Cory Seager.
Projected Pick: RICHIE SHAFFER.

20. GIANTS. San Francisco has built its success around drafting and developing first-round arms and could go down that road again with Travieso, Sims, Eflin or Weickel. Missouri State righthander Pierce Johnson and Florida lefty Brian Johnson headline the next tier of college arms. If the Giants want to beef up their offense, they could go for Piscotty or Gallo.
Projected Pick: NICK TRAVIESO.

21. BRAVES. Though Atlanta is known for taking homestate players (such as Sims) and scouting director Tony DeMacio loves lefthanders (Florida's Brian Johnson), word is that it will snare a position player here. Dahl won't get past the Braves, who might take Texas A&M outfielder Tyler Naquin over Piscotty otherwise. Georgia Southern outfielder Victor Roache is a homestate bat who wouldn't have lasted this long if he hadn't broken his wrist early in the year. Atlanta also likes to get players signed quickly, so don't be surprised if it grabs Cal Poly outfielder Mitch Haniger or Arizona high school third baseman Mitch Nay.
Projected Pick: TYLER NAQUIN.

22. BLUE JAYS (for failure to sign 2011 first-round Tyler Beede). Davis fits Toronto's mold, though it may not want to take back-to-back high school outfielders. Gallo could do a lot of damage at Rogers Centre, and his massive raw power shouldn't last much longer than this.
Projected Pick: JOEY GALLO.

Krylian
05-27-2012, 10:52 AM
I'd be very pleased with Dahl and Gallo....but I'm pretty sure you'll see at least one arm taken of the 1st 2 picks.

Eagles4Lyfe
05-27-2012, 12:19 PM
What are the ceilings of gallo and Gio??

Krylian
05-27-2012, 01:53 PM
What are the ceilings of gallo and Gio??

Gallo as a pitcher has a mid-90's FB that has touched 98. I don't think his secondary stuff is anything extra-orfinary. I mention this. Because if the bat doesn't work out he still has a possible alternative (see Sergio Santos).

As far as the bat goes...possibly the most power in the draft. 40+ homer potential. Holes in the swing as he swings and misses a lot but many scouts think it can be fixed. Adam Dunn type power. More athletic than Dunn but not as good strike zone recognition. Not sure if Dunn is the best comp but he'd kinda like that I think (bat-wise at least).

Giolito? Ace potential. Has 3 plus pitches right now. FB mid-high-90's (touvhed 100 in spring). One of the best curveballs in the draft. Changeup has become plus this year. 6'6" 225. Perfect pitchers frame. I've heard a young Doc...although Doc never had a change-up like Giolito's.

Eagles4Lyfe
05-27-2012, 05:16 PM
Oh wow thanks for that

Toxeryll
05-28-2012, 05:03 AM
isnt Gallo a first baseman?? i hope we dont draft any first basemen with our first two picks

Krylian
05-28-2012, 09:07 AM
isnt Gallo a first baseman?? i hope we dont draft any first basemen with our first two picks

Gallo plays both 3B and 1B. Some aren't sure if he can stick at 3B as he's not that quick...others think he can (tremendous arm though).

phillipmike
05-28-2012, 02:47 PM
isnt Gallo a first baseman?? i hope we dont draft any first basemen with our first two picks

I agree but Gallo is different. He was a pitcher and cap play 3B although not well. But he is what AA is looking for a young high upside player with raw abilities. He is a high schooler and he has the most power in the draft as people dont think it is out of his upside to hit 40 homeruns. That is intriguing for any team looking at ceiling.

T.O. Fan
05-28-2012, 07:18 PM
Interesting that a couple mocks mention the Jays and Giolito at #17.

BlueJayFanDan
05-29-2012, 03:44 AM
This would be my dream first round.

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft-2012

That would be the best ever. As I have made perfectly clear, Gallo is my favorite position player in this draft. Giolito has such an insane ceiling. I would love it.

ILDD
05-29-2012, 07:40 AM
That would be the best ever. As I have made perfectly clear, Gallo is my favorite position player in this draft. Giolito has such an insane ceiling. I would love it.

But would Giolito sign for the reduced money that Toronto can offer?

I think the whole budget is $8.8M for 14 players, surely Giolito woud rather wait another year and possibly go top 3 for between $5M and $7M rather than go this year when he will "only" get $2M?

Yes, it's a risk but it's worth several million dollars to him and might be one he would take.

Toronto could go over slot but the the rest of the draftees have to sign for under-slotto avoid the potential over-slot penalties.

I might have missed something, I'm still not 100% sure how the slotting system will work out tbh.

jaysdynastysoon
05-29-2012, 08:53 AM
^ I don't understand it either.

Giolito is rumored to want around 5M. If that's true, there would only be 3.8M or so left to sign our other 1st, 3 1st sup and all our other picks. Which really isn't enough.

I guess the strategy would then be to draft players that were slotted way higher up than our initial pick but that's real risky to base the entire draft on 1 player.

Someone please explain why do the Jays have the best chance on signing him?

I'm confused :facepalm:

wings
05-29-2012, 09:05 AM
Well unless Giolito goes to JC, he will have to wait 3 years to re-enter.
He is special talent and I think if the Jays think he will sign for 3 to 3.5, they will move their allotment around with some underslot deals to get him starting with that 22 pick (which would most likely mean no Gallo or other names you have heard). Would need to be someone projected in the latter part of the Supp round, who you could sign for around $1.1 or $1.2. Then use that 7K or 6,K your 5% overbudget around 400K (only monetary penalty) and a few more minor underslot deals and you might just get him signed. He seems to be the only kid in the draft projected as a number 1 starter.

However, if he truly is going to demand 5 to 7M, that would require massive underslot deals throughout the entire draft and would seem pretty foolish to downgrade the talent infusion to get the one kid. Especially when that means we might lose out on the Lansing Big 3s of the world, because all your kids in the first 3 to 4 rounds would need to be signed to underslot deals of about 1/2 to get to the 5 to 7M. Baseball America won't even include him in their mocks for this reason.

jaysforever
05-29-2012, 09:10 AM
I don't think we'd pay anywhere near $5mm. It's a question of value and AA has never given a bonus greater than $2mm. In the eleventh hour last year he upped the anti to $2.5mm to Beede, but that was really pushing it for AA.

If Giolitto is firm on $5mm then he is going to college which would be dumb because there's certainly no guarantee he would be top 3 in 3 years, plus he'd have to suffer through 3 years of college as well.

The question i would ask to him, (and Beede and some others) is what are you, a ballplayer or a student?

If you're dream is to play ball, cut the best deal you can and get on with it. Like Norris did last year. He told everyone he wanted $4mm, then signed for $2mm. I'm so impressed with Norris. He's a ballplayer. There was a great article on him the other day that he has totally revamped his delivery. He's been working hard in extended spring training and is roaring to go now. You may as well get the best professional instruction you can get if you want to be a pro ballplayer. School is good for some if you are fringe talent or not mentally ready and stuff like that.

I think the jays would go up to $2.5mm, maybe $3mm, which is why i posted that number the other day. I doubt they go beyond that as the value is questionable and it messes up the rest of the draft to much. The team would ask him leading up to the draft. It's not like you'd draft him and then find out later he's firm on $5mm.

I think all teams are asking all players this year what kind of money they are looking for. Anyone getting greedy this year won't get drafted probably, because once you start slipping it becomes more impossible for other teams to sign you as the slots diminish.

Anyways, these are some of my thoughts.

Krylian
05-29-2012, 09:17 AM
Before his elbow strain Giolito was a Top 2 pick...which basically means a slot deal of at least $6M. The injury hurt his value, but $2.5M-$3M for Giolito seems low. They went up to $2.5M for Beede last year and he's a fraction of the pitcher than Giolito is now, and could be (having a much higher ceiling). If I were Giolito I'd be open to signing, but I'd be more in the $3.5M-$4M range (minimum). That's assuming that his throwing sessions are going well and he's showing that he's healthy with no lingering effects.

wings
05-29-2012, 09:29 AM
Before his elbow strain Giolito was a Top 2 pick...which basically means a slot deal of at least $6M. The injury hurt his value, but $2.5M-$3M for Giolito seems low. They went up to $2.5M for Beede last year and he's a fraction of the pitcher than Giolito is now, and could be (having a much higher ceiling). If I were Giolito I'd be open to signing, but I'd be more in the $3.5M-$4M range (minimum). That's assuming that his throwing sessions are going well and he's showing that he's healthy with no lingering effects.
He might be worth the 4 to 5 M, and in last years system, I'd give it to him. But it is just not about the money now; it's about gutting the rest of your draft to get that number. The Jays have such a great scouting system, and would be sacrificing a lot of talent to get him. If he wants 5 M and won't settle for less, then he either goes in the top ten or does not get drafted. No point taking a flyer on him in later rounds. Almost impossible for any team after that point to allocate enough of their pool to get him. Especially when the kid now has a "arm troubles"

Krylian
05-29-2012, 09:42 AM
He might be worth the 4 to 5 M, and in last years system, I'd give it to him. But it is just not about the money now; it's about gutting the rest of your draft to get that number. The Jays have such a great scouting system, and would be sacrificing a lot of talent to get him. If he wants 5 M and won't settle for less, then he either goes in the top ten or does not get drafted. No point taking a flyer on him in later rounds. Almost impossible for any team after that point to allocate enough of their pool to get him. Especially when the kid now has a "arm troubles"

I'm not saying the Jays are able to do it. I don't think they are....not unless they're willing to really cut a lot of underslot deals to do it or are wiling to be taxed and lose a pick or two next year. I think the number will be around $4M. So, with the #17 pick they have $2M, plus another $440K or so if they want to just pay a luxury tax. Can they find another $1.5M to throw at Giolito? I don't think so, but you never really know...most of it depends on what they do at 22.

jaysforever
05-29-2012, 10:32 AM
They could find a way to get $4 or $5 if they had to, but i just don't see AA even trying to go that high. They can get great value so much cheaper. Sanchez was $770k, Synde was $600k, Nicolino was $600k, etc....

The ball is really in Giolitto's court. Absolutely no question that this is a big flaw in the new CBA. If you get injured in your draft year, it can be really costly! So many players this year have slipped badly because of injuries, and in prior years you could pick them up later and still give them a good bonus if the medical checked out. Now you just can't do that anymore. They slip and it simply means they get a lot less.

So i can see frustration in players. Giolitto probably deserves a lot more than he is going to get assuming he is healthy, but it's a lot of $ for teams to risk as the injury could reoccur.

It's really unfair for sure. I think a guy like Giolitto should cut the best deal he can and get on with playing ball. Also, if he needs surgury at least he's got a big league club looking after him.

I don't know if anyone would offer up 3.5 or 4 for him. Maybe...but there's lots of other talent near the top as well.

jaysforever
05-29-2012, 12:11 PM
BA answered some questions on draft strategy today:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2012/2613467.html

Eagles4Lyfe
05-29-2012, 12:20 PM
Well if were getting a guy who would've been a consensus top 5 player at pick 22 because of an injury he sustained but is completely healthy then why not shell out the cash?? If his ceiling is enormous like everyone suggests then who cares we get an ace like pitcher or top bat in our system the rest will play out by itself.
That's how teams like the Yankees and Red Sox kept having top farms despite drafting near the bottom each year.
You never worry about money during a draft you always take the BPA and figure the rest out later.
We might have to play it safe with the Beede comp pick anyways since if that player doesn't sign we lose that pick for good, so if we get Gio then lets give him the 4M he wants

DeRozan10
05-29-2012, 12:22 PM
Honestly, If Gio dropped to us, I would not be mad to sign him to 4-6 million. I would actually not be mad at all if the Jays lost their first round pick next year in order to stack up and have another amazing draft this year ....

Eagles4Lyfe
05-29-2012, 12:28 PM
We wouldn't have to lose next years picks if we played it smart, but the reason why they keep referring to us as the team who can possibly risk signing him is because were like the only team near that area that can afford to take a risk on a player with high signability issues and afford to lose him because we have another pick 5 spots after and because we have an amazing amount of depth already in the farm that allows us to take big risks that would be a great pay off.

If this was the J.P GM days when we didn't have a great farm then its not worth it but now with a close to stacked farm system thats ever improving why not?? I mean we still have the International market to explore to if we miss out

alistar
05-29-2012, 12:36 PM
We wouldn't have to lose next years picks if we played it smart, but the reason why they keep referring to us as the team who can possibly risk signing him is because were like the only team near that area that can afford to take a risk on a player with high signability issues and afford to lose him because we have another pick 5 spots after and because we have an amazing amount of depth already in the farm that allows us to take big risks that would be a great pay off.
If this was the J.P GM days when we didn't have a great farm then its not worth it but now with a close to stacked farm system thats ever improving why not?? I mean we still have the International market to explore to if we miss out

So do the Cardinals.

Eagles4Lyfe
05-29-2012, 12:38 PM
Is our pick before theirs??

alistar
05-29-2012, 12:48 PM
Is our pick before theirs??

Yes, 2 picks before.

Eagles4Lyfe
05-29-2012, 01:25 PM
Ya so see we have the advantage over them bro.

North Yorker
05-29-2012, 03:16 PM
BA's Pre-Draft Top 500

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/?srch=byNatRank&top=500&submit=Search

Eagles4Lyfe
05-29-2012, 04:13 PM
Wow Gio ranked 9 you kidding me, I hope he drops now.

There are some position players around our draft area who are done college and should be easy to sign anyways, lets get er done

Toxeryll
05-29-2012, 04:26 PM
Well if were getting a guy who would've been a consensus top 5 player at pick 22 because of an injury he sustained but is completely healthy then why not shell out the cash?? If his ceiling is enormous like everyone suggests then who cares we get an ace like pitcher or top bat in our system the rest will play out by itself.
That's how teams like the Yankees and Red Sox kept having top farms despite drafting near the bottom each year.
You never worry about money during a draft you always take the BPA and figure the rest out later.
We might have to play it safe with the Beede comp pick anyways since if that player doesn't sign we lose that pick for good, so if we get Gio then lets give him the 4M he wants

hmm, im not sure if im right, but i think the new CBA adds one more year of protection to unsigned first round picks so we'll get another comp pick if we fail to sign the player used with beede's comp pick

DeRozan10
05-29-2012, 04:26 PM
what would you guys think of grabbin Jake Barrett with one of our comp picks :D

pebloemer
05-29-2012, 04:45 PM
Well if were getting a guy who would've been a consensus top 5 player at pick 22 because of an injury he sustained but is completely healthy then why not shell out the cash?? If his ceiling is enormous like everyone suggests then who cares we get an ace like pitcher or top bat in our system the rest will play out by itself.
That's how teams like the Yankees and Red Sox kept having top farms despite drafting near the bottom each year.
You never worry about money during a draft you always take the BPA and figure the rest out later.
We might have to play it safe with the Beede comp pick anyways since if that player doesn't sign we lose that pick for good, so if we get Gio then lets give him the 4M he wants

Nice sig. You dutch? Or just a supporter of the sea of orange?

Eagles4Lyfe
05-29-2012, 06:35 PM
Just a dutch fan and love underdog stories. Always liked their style of play but just sad they can never put it together to win one of these.

DeRozan10
05-31-2012, 12:42 PM
Like I said before ....

I don't know if the Jays are ever going to have this many picks again, so I would not be upset at all for them to be aggressive as possible and even go above our signing bonus pool. Even if that means a loss of a first round pick next year.

The Jays have a chance to put (on paper) three amazing drafts in a row. That could set us up for a very very long time.

This is especially if Gio somehow, someway falls to us. I would not be upset at all if the Jays went way over the slot and gave him 4-6 million, and then not let that affect how they draft the rest of the way

jaysforever
05-31-2012, 12:55 PM
New Draft Rules Put Premium On Predictability

By Jerry Crasnick
May 31, 2012
E-mail Print


Since its inception in 1965, Major League Baseball's draft has been the perfect mechanism to introduce high school and college talent to the pros. Come draft day, scouts sit at a table and ruminate about "good faces" and 80-grade arms amid a pile of deli sandwich bags and pizza boxes in the war room. Potential draftees wait patiently for the call before hugging mom and dad in celebration of a dream attained. The process plays out in an orderly fashion, with a minimum of backroom dealing and gamesmanship and an emphasis on fairness.

Uhh . . . not exactly.

Maybe it worked that way in Rick Reichardt's heyday, but things have changed markedly over the past quarter century. The influence of agents, or "advisers" as they're called to keep the NCAA at bay, increased (with an emphasis on one particular agency in Newport Beach, Calif.). And baseball's owners started to feel as if they were held hostage by the process. They began sending stronger signals to commissioner Bud Selig that they wanted to get their hands back on the wheel, and the draft became a centerpiece of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Now we're about to see the fallout. Draft spending increased from $161 million in 2006 to $236 million in 2011, and it's anticipated that clubs will spend closer to $200 million this year. Rob Manfred, MLB's executive vice president of labor relations, says it was more a case of making the draft operate as its founding fathers intended.

"What we hoped to achieve through the system was to restore the draft to its original purpose," Manfred says. "That's what the commissioner said when we got into this whole business. We see that purpose as the best players being available to the lowest-finishing clubs. We think the beauty of this system is that they're going to be available at a reasonably predictable price."

The MLB Players Association wasn't anxious for an overhaul, but relented in several areas because the commissioner's office made it such a priority. The draft's new bonus structure is part of a bigger, overarching framework that includes the international signing market, free-agent compensation changes and a bonus-pick lottery for low-revenue teams.

"These were all management proposals," union executive director Michael Weiner says. "We didn't come in looking to change the draft. It was an important area of negotiation from the clubs' perspective. They claimed it was designed to improve competitive balance. We said, 'The teams that are spending a lot of money in the draft recently are teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City, who see it as an arena where they can really compete.' We raised questions and we made compromises. But it remains to be seen what effect this will have on competitiveness."

After years of making bonus recommendations and finding that some clubs toed the line while others fielded the obligatory admonishing phone call from Selig and then spent what they wanted, baseball has enacted a system with more teeth in it.

Teams have a predetermined amount of money available to spend each year. The Astros, who pick first this year, have an $11.2 million budget for 11 picks through the first 10 rounds. The Twins have 13 picks and a $12.4 million pool over the first 10 rounds. At the bottom end of the food chain you'll find the Angels, who can spend a mere $1.6 million on eight picks after losing their top two choices as compensation for signing free agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.

Teams incur progressively steeper penalties for overspending. Exceed your designated limit by 5 percent, and you pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. As the percentage increases, offending teams could be on the hook for a 100 percent tax payment and the loss of two future first-round picks. Those penalties might be worth considering if the prize is a Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg or another once-in-a-generation prospect. But the 2012 draft is one of the weakest in recent memory, so this will not be the year.

If you whiff on signing a pick, you can't use that money on other players. Last year the Blue Jays failed to sign pitcher Tyler Beede, the 21st overall pick, but spent the money budgeted for him elsewhere. If they had the same result this year, they would simply lose the allotted $1.8 million for the slot.

After the 10th round, teams can sign as many players as they want for less than $100,000, all the way through round 40 (as opposed to 50 rounds under the previous system). Anything over $100,000 for a player will count against a club's budget. An American League scouting director predicts that college juniors will be lining up for "one-size-fits-all deals" and help to fill those minor league roster spots. "We're going to need numbers," the scouting director says.

Some elements of the new system are popular. Scouting directors seem to favor the prohibition on major league contracts for draft picks. Teams also like the new mid-July signing deadline (July 13 this year), a month earlier than the previous D-Day of August 15. It makes for a month less of indecision and sweating. And the quicker draft picks sign, the quicker they can go out and play.

"When we had that long waiting period until August 15, it made no sense," a National League scouting director says. "This will be huge, especially with the college guys. The point is to get them out there, get them playing and get them to the big leagues so they can help your team a little sooner. This accelerates them a hair. Instead of going to High A their first full season, they may go to Double-A. This puts them a little closer."

Some front-office people, such as Padres general manager Josh Byrnes, think Manfred and Weiner did a skillful job in establishing new parameters. San Diego has six of the first 70 picks and the third-highest bonus pool at $9.9 million, so it has a lot at stake in the 2012 draft.

"We had sort of gotten away from the draft model that if you're a player, you want to be taken as high as you can possibly be taken," Byrnes says. "I think this system reinforces that concept. You want to get drafted as high as you can get drafted, rather than deliver yourself to the team that will write the biggest check. This system really rewards good scouting as opposed to strategy."

Signability Is Paramount

Predictably, the changes prompted bellyaching in certain circles. The Pirates and Royals have, indeed, spent liberally in recent drafts. In the overall scheme of things, that $10 million-12 million annual investment is a pittance compared to what the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and other big shooters spend on free agents. But large draft payouts don't necessarily ensure a team will hit the jackpot. BA rated Pittsburgh's farm system as the 11th-best in baseball entering this year, and that's not going to rescue the Pirates from two decades of losing anytime soon.

"Just because you're spending a lot of money, it doesn't mean crap unless you're evaluating the right players," a NL scouting director says. "Sometimes it's eyewash. If you're throwing a lot of money at guys and evaluating it right, theoretically it should give you an advantage. But it doesn't matter if you're throwing money at the wrong guys."

Regardless of the system or the size of bonuses, the concept of "signability" always has been pivotal in the draft. Scouts can salivate over a player's wheels, arm, bat speed and intangibles. But it doesn't matter if his asking price is beyond an organization's comfort zone. Numerous scouting directors and front-office officials say MLB's new system has raised the stakes for teams. In the past, clubs had the option of ponying up an extra $500,000 if an area scout misread a draft pick's price point. No more.

"I think signability is more critical this year than in any other year I've been involved in the draft," an AL scouting director says. "It's going to require teams and people like me to do things we aren't normally accustomed to doing, and that's getting a bottom line figure by the draft. There will be deals cut because basically it's our jobs at stake now. If we don't sign an individual for the amount that we have to sign them, it could jeopardize our whole draft."

The athletes affected by the process come in all shapes, sizes and talent levels. A year ago, the Royals gave No. 5 overall choice Bubba Starling $7.5 million over three years to dissuade him from playing quarterback at Nebraska. This year Kansas City has $3.5 million available for that same No. 5 choice and a $6.1 million allotment for its first 10 picks. So it's safe to say Starling would be a Cornhusker right now if this system were in place in 2011.

Last year, high school outfielder Josh Bell made it clear he was going to Texas until the Pirates forked over a $5 million bonus. Bell hit the mother lode as the 61st pick in the draft. This year the 61st pick, which belongs to the Astros, is penciled in at $844,100. So something has to give.

"Now you would either have to select him in a spot where you can give him a lot of money, or he's going to go to college," an AL scouting director says. "There are a lot of other high school kids that we've taken in rounds two to 10 and given a lot of money to, and we're not going to be able to do that now. So you won't select them or you won't sign them, because you're going to offer a slot that's way lower than they're hoping, believing and thinking they're worth."

The elite talents—like Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton, Baseball America's top-rated prospect for the draft—will sign in the first round and pocket enough money to be set for life. Some other kids who simply aren't cut out for college also will take the plunge. But many decision-makers think it's inevitable that the new system will funnel a lot more prep talent to colleges and junior colleges. That's just fine with the commissioner's office, which doesn't mind the thought of colleges serving as a feeder system. Welcome to baseball's more NFL-like approach.

It remains to be seen how well-equipped college baseball programs are to handle the influx. NCAA Division I programs are currently limited to 11.7 scholarships each, and MLB and the union are working with the NCAA to contribute money to expand that allotment. Baseball also needs to find a way to better attract more African-American talent. A window of opportunity could be opening as more parents debate whether to let their kids play football in the midst of the NFL's concussion crisis.

Trust Your Area Scout

The new system places a premium on area scouts to forge relationships and do the reconnaissance to give teams a sense of security. In this respect, it marks a return to values that baseball held dear before the draft became such big business.

Eddie Bane can relate. During his time as scouting director with the Angels, Bane took some major signability hits. The list of prospects who got away includes Khiry Cooper, who passed on pro baseball to play wide receiver at Nebraska, and Pat White, who made a similar choice to play quarterback at West Virginia. But Bane also scored a monster hit in the 2009 draft when he selected New Jersey high school outfielder Mike Trout with the 25th overall pick.

Amid rumblings that Trout's price tag was increasing to as much as $3.5 million the night before the draft, Bane had confidence in his initial number because Los Angeles was convinced that Jeff and Debbie Trout would stay true to their word. Angels scout Greg Morhardt had a longstanding relationship with the family, and it paid off when Trout agreed to sign for a slot bonus of $1.215 million a week after the draft. If the new system does anything, it magnifies the importance of developing ties with players.

"Now you better spend time with that kid in August and September or go up and watch his high school team play basketball in November," says Bane, now a major league scout with the Tigers. "You take him out to dinner then instead of getting to know him in May. That's where the area scout can do some damage. I hate to see the area scout at the Area Code Games, and all he does is sit there for four days and not interact with the parents or take the kid out to dinner. That's where you make your hay."

Predraft deals are technically against baseball rules, but it's no secret that they happen every year. They'll become even more critical in 2012 as teams will have so much less wiggle room.

That dynamic only can heighten the profile and influence of baseball's relentless foot soldiers: the area guys. One AL scouting director says he expects to see more area scouts in homes this year on draft day, collecting signatures just moments after clubs have made their selections.

The old agent ploy of slow-playing negotiations for leverage is passé, because the leverage belongs to the clubs now. If an adviser isn't willing to give a concrete answer, a team will simply pass and move on to the next player. It's a risky bet for a kid and his parents to dally. Wait too long, and you might find yourself signing 10 spots later for significantly less money.

"I've told agents, 'Talk to your client, get your bottom-line number and then be by the phone," a NL general manager says. "When it's draft day, if our slot is $1 million and our pick is five minutes away and we call you and say, 'Hey, we're going to take your guy and we're going to offer him 900,000,' it's yes or no. It's not a negotiation. If you say no, you better hope he doesn't fall three more picks, because then you're swimming upstream."

Say Goodbye To The Wild West

Some wonder if agents eventually could be rendered obsolete under baseball's changing draft landscape. If a prospect is slotted in for $2 million as the 17th pick in the draft, why does he need to hand over $100,000 to an agent to facilitate his deal? His parents can simply put out an all-points-bulletin that he's amenable to signing and pocket the entire amount. Mom and dad don't have to worry about being overwhelmed by the process, because there's little negotiating involved. In some respects, it's less hassle-filled than strolling into a showroom and buying a new car.

Long before the draft takes place, families will have to sit down and determine whether the value of a college scholarship outweighs the instant reward of a signing bonus. In many cases, they'll be making the call without stars in their eyes.

"This is going to be a serious education for players and their families," an AL personnel man says. "It's been like the Wild West out there for a while. But you're not comparing apples to apples with the new system and this one. It's not even in the same orchard."

Changing times may also accentuate the different approaches of agents. San Francisco-based agent Matt Sosnick has built a successful business by working the draft, forging ties with front offices and, in numerous cases, getting players bumped up because teams knew they were amenable to signing quickly. Last year, Sosnick represented four of the first 60 players in the draft. He thinks teams are going to be more anxious than ever to work with agents who are up front and less inclined to foster an air of mystery.

"I think teams are going to make every effort, particularly in the first couple of rounds, to try to have very finite deals in place before they make a pick," Sosnick says. "There's no safety net of another pick or the ability to spend money later in the draft. It ends up being a do-or-die with every pick you make. And I just don't foresee many teams being willing to pick a guy with no thought to what it's going to cost them."

Scott Boras, of course, takes a decidedly different approach. Given his inventiveness and lengthy track record of blazing trails in draft strategy, many front-office people wonder if Boras can find another loophole to exploit. If he has, he's keeping it a secret.

Boras says he thinks the new system places more of a premium than ever on experienced advisers who can evaluate talent and correctly assess the value of prospects, rather than be backed into a corner by external forces.

This year's draft might not prove to be a real test of potential glitches in the system, because the talent pool is relatively weak, and might breed a false sense of security among clubs. Think back to the 2005 draft that produced Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce among the top 12 picks. It might be tough finding enough money for a class like that under the new system.

"The need for experienced representation that knows the value of athletes is in the greatest demand in that type of situation," Boras says. "If a player doesn't know what his value is, he can fall prey to this need for early negotiation and not getting a number that he's truly worth. That evaluation is very difficult in the draft. It requires a great deal of experience and very knowledgeable people who've been through it many, many times."

Boras has been relatively muted in his criticism of the new draft system, but he sees areas where he says it can be improved. For starters, he would like to see teams given more spending flexibility. Not all drafts are created equal, Boras contends, so why not give teams a designated amount of cash over a five-year period, then let them make the call on how much money they should allocate each year based on the talent available?

"If you went to teams and said, 'Over a five-year period, you can spend this amount of money and spend it in whatever years you want,' that system has more of a chance of fairness," Boras says. "In drafts, the talent comes in waves. It does not come in a uniform annual basis. We want scouting to take its effect. If you give teams flexibility, your scouting system might tell you, 'This is going to be a great year.' Scouting operates the way it should. We have to accommodate for the relative lack of consistency with which entry talent is available. This system is void of that very critical consideration."

Boras also proposes rewarding successful low-revenue teams. So if the Rays pick high in the draft and finish first in the AL East, they should be allowed to retain a $10 million allotment the following year, for example, even if they're picking 28th.

"If you're a revenue-sharing club and you win a division, your draft allocation does not get limited," Boras says. "But you have to win. If you finish second, it doesn't work."

Those ideas could be grist for future discussion and revision. In the short term, baseball's 30 clubs will have to navigate on the fly. A team can try to cut corners with its first-round pick in anticipation of using the savings in subsequent rounds—with no certainty which players will be available later in the draft. It's the equivalent of trying to assemble a jigsaw puzzle with only some of the pieces in front of you.

"Before, you could do it one player at a time," says Jeff Luhnow, who owns the No. 1 overall pick in his first year as Astros GM. "Let's make a decision: Are we going to go over slot on this player or not? Of course, your overall budget was impacted. But each pick sort of stood in isolation. Now you have to be more of an orchestra conductor. There's definitely going to be more coordination of signings required."

The process of amateur talent acquisition has entered a whole new phase in its evolution, and front-office people, scouts, advisers, parents and the players themselves are about to see how the storyline unfolds. The draft is set to go. We're about to find out if baseball is ready for it.

Kenny Powders
05-31-2012, 03:46 PM
New Draft Rules Put Premium On Predictability

By Jerry Crasnick
May 31, 2012
E-mail Print


Since its inception in 1965, Major League Baseball's draft has been the perfect mechanism to introduce high school and college talent to the pros. Come draft day, scouts sit at a table and ruminate about "good faces" and 80-grade arms amid a pile of deli sandwich bags and pizza boxes in the war room. Potential draftees wait patiently for the call before hugging mom and dad in celebration of a dream attained. The process plays out in an orderly fashion, with a minimum of backroom dealing and gamesmanship and an emphasis on fairness.

Uhh . . . not exactly.

Maybe it worked that way in Rick Reichardt's heyday, but things have changed markedly over the past quarter century. The influence of agents, or "advisers" as they're called to keep the NCAA at bay, increased (with an emphasis on one particular agency in Newport Beach, Calif.). And baseball's owners started to feel as if they were held hostage by the process. They began sending stronger signals to commissioner Bud Selig that they wanted to get their hands back on the wheel, and the draft became a centerpiece of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Now we're about to see the fallout. Draft spending increased from $161 million in 2006 to $236 million in 2011, and it's anticipated that clubs will spend closer to $200 million this year. Rob Manfred, MLB's executive vice president of labor relations, says it was more a case of making the draft operate as its founding fathers intended.

"What we hoped to achieve through the system was to restore the draft to its original purpose," Manfred says. "That's what the commissioner said when we got into this whole business. We see that purpose as the best players being available to the lowest-finishing clubs. We think the beauty of this system is that they're going to be available at a reasonably predictable price."

The MLB Players Association wasn't anxious for an overhaul, but relented in several areas because the commissioner's office made it such a priority. The draft's new bonus structure is part of a bigger, overarching framework that includes the international signing market, free-agent compensation changes and a bonus-pick lottery for low-revenue teams.

"These were all management proposals," union executive director Michael Weiner says. "We didn't come in looking to change the draft. It was an important area of negotiation from the clubs' perspective. They claimed it was designed to improve competitive balance. We said, 'The teams that are spending a lot of money in the draft recently are teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City, who see it as an arena where they can really compete.' We raised questions and we made compromises. But it remains to be seen what effect this will have on competitiveness."

After years of making bonus recommendations and finding that some clubs toed the line while others fielded the obligatory admonishing phone call from Selig and then spent what they wanted, baseball has enacted a system with more teeth in it.

Teams have a predetermined amount of money available to spend each year. The Astros, who pick first this year, have an $11.2 million budget for 11 picks through the first 10 rounds. The Twins have 13 picks and a $12.4 million pool over the first 10 rounds. At the bottom end of the food chain you'll find the Angels, who can spend a mere $1.6 million on eight picks after losing their top two choices as compensation for signing free agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson.

Teams incur progressively steeper penalties for overspending. Exceed your designated limit by 5 percent, and you pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. As the percentage increases, offending teams could be on the hook for a 100 percent tax payment and the loss of two future first-round picks. Those penalties might be worth considering if the prize is a Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg or another once-in-a-generation prospect. But the 2012 draft is one of the weakest in recent memory, so this will not be the year.

If you whiff on signing a pick, you can't use that money on other players. Last year the Blue Jays failed to sign pitcher Tyler Beede, the 21st overall pick, but spent the money budgeted for him elsewhere. If they had the same result this year, they would simply lose the allotted $1.8 million for the slot.

After the 10th round, teams can sign as many players as they want for less than $100,000, all the way through round 40 (as opposed to 50 rounds under the previous system). Anything over $100,000 for a player will count against a club's budget. An American League scouting director predicts that college juniors will be lining up for "one-size-fits-all deals" and help to fill those minor league roster spots. "We're going to need numbers," the scouting director says.

Some elements of the new system are popular. Scouting directors seem to favor the prohibition on major league contracts for draft picks. Teams also like the new mid-July signing deadline (July 13 this year), a month earlier than the previous D-Day of August 15. It makes for a month less of indecision and sweating. And the quicker draft picks sign, the quicker they can go out and play.

"When we had that long waiting period until August 15, it made no sense," a National League scouting director says. "This will be huge, especially with the college guys. The point is to get them out there, get them playing and get them to the big leagues so they can help your team a little sooner. This accelerates them a hair. Instead of going to High A their first full season, they may go to Double-A. This puts them a little closer."

Some front-office people, such as Padres general manager Josh Byrnes, think Manfred and Weiner did a skillful job in establishing new parameters. San Diego has six of the first 70 picks and the third-highest bonus pool at $9.9 million, so it has a lot at stake in the 2012 draft.

"We had sort of gotten away from the draft model that if you're a player, you want to be taken as high as you can possibly be taken," Byrnes says. "I think this system reinforces that concept. You want to get drafted as high as you can get drafted, rather than deliver yourself to the team that will write the biggest check. This system really rewards good scouting as opposed to strategy."

Signability Is Paramount

Predictably, the changes prompted bellyaching in certain circles. The Pirates and Royals have, indeed, spent liberally in recent drafts. In the overall scheme of things, that $10 million-12 million annual investment is a pittance compared to what the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and other big shooters spend on free agents. But large draft payouts don't necessarily ensure a team will hit the jackpot. BA rated Pittsburgh's farm system as the 11th-best in baseball entering this year, and that's not going to rescue the Pirates from two decades of losing anytime soon.

"Just because you're spending a lot of money, it doesn't mean crap unless you're evaluating the right players," a NL scouting director says. "Sometimes it's eyewash. If you're throwing a lot of money at guys and evaluating it right, theoretically it should give you an advantage. But it doesn't matter if you're throwing money at the wrong guys."

Regardless of the system or the size of bonuses, the concept of "signability" always has been pivotal in the draft. Scouts can salivate over a player's wheels, arm, bat speed and intangibles. But it doesn't matter if his asking price is beyond an organization's comfort zone. Numerous scouting directors and front-office officials say MLB's new system has raised the stakes for teams. In the past, clubs had the option of ponying up an extra $500,000 if an area scout misread a draft pick's price point. No more.

"I think signability is more critical this year than in any other year I've been involved in the draft," an AL scouting director says. "It's going to require teams and people like me to do things we aren't normally accustomed to doing, and that's getting a bottom line figure by the draft. There will be deals cut because basically it's our jobs at stake now. If we don't sign an individual for the amount that we have to sign them, it could jeopardize our whole draft."

The athletes affected by the process come in all shapes, sizes and talent levels. A year ago, the Royals gave No. 5 overall choice Bubba Starling $7.5 million over three years to dissuade him from playing quarterback at Nebraska. This year Kansas City has $3.5 million available for that same No. 5 choice and a $6.1 million allotment for its first 10 picks. So it's safe to say Starling would be a Cornhusker right now if this system were in place in 2011.

Last year, high school outfielder Josh Bell made it clear he was going to Texas until the Pirates forked over a $5 million bonus. Bell hit the mother lode as the 61st pick in the draft. This year the 61st pick, which belongs to the Astros, is penciled in at $844,100. So something has to give.

"Now you would either have to select him in a spot where you can give him a lot of money, or he's going to go to college," an AL scouting director says. "There are a lot of other high school kids that we've taken in rounds two to 10 and given a lot of money to, and we're not going to be able to do that now. So you won't select them or you won't sign them, because you're going to offer a slot that's way lower than they're hoping, believing and thinking they're worth."

The elite talents—like Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton, Baseball America's top-rated prospect for the draft—will sign in the first round and pocket enough money to be set for life. Some other kids who simply aren't cut out for college also will take the plunge. But many decision-makers think it's inevitable that the new system will funnel a lot more prep talent to colleges and junior colleges. That's just fine with the commissioner's office, which doesn't mind the thought of colleges serving as a feeder system. Welcome to baseball's more NFL-like approach.

It remains to be seen how well-equipped college baseball programs are to handle the influx. NCAA Division I programs are currently limited to 11.7 scholarships each, and MLB and the union are working with the NCAA to contribute money to expand that allotment. Baseball also needs to find a way to better attract more African-American talent. A window of opportunity could be opening as more parents debate whether to let their kids play football in the midst of the NFL's concussion crisis.

Trust Your Area Scout

The new system places a premium on area scouts to forge relationships and do the reconnaissance to give teams a sense of security. In this respect, it marks a return to values that baseball held dear before the draft became such big business.

Eddie Bane can relate. During his time as scouting director with the Angels, Bane took some major signability hits. The list of prospects who got away includes Khiry Cooper, who passed on pro baseball to play wide receiver at Nebraska, and Pat White, who made a similar choice to play quarterback at West Virginia. But Bane also scored a monster hit in the 2009 draft when he selected New Jersey high school outfielder Mike Trout with the 25th overall pick.

Amid rumblings that Trout's price tag was increasing to as much as $3.5 million the night before the draft, Bane had confidence in his initial number because Los Angeles was convinced that Jeff and Debbie Trout would stay true to their word. Angels scout Greg Morhardt had a longstanding relationship with the family, and it paid off when Trout agreed to sign for a slot bonus of $1.215 million a week after the draft. If the new system does anything, it magnifies the importance of developing ties with players.

"Now you better spend time with that kid in August and September or go up and watch his high school team play basketball in November," says Bane, now a major league scout with the Tigers. "You take him out to dinner then instead of getting to know him in May. That's where the area scout can do some damage. I hate to see the area scout at the Area Code Games, and all he does is sit there for four days and not interact with the parents or take the kid out to dinner. That's where you make your hay."

Predraft deals are technically against baseball rules, but it's no secret that they happen every year. They'll become even more critical in 2012 as teams will have so much less wiggle room.

That dynamic only can heighten the profile and influence of baseball's relentless foot soldiers: the area guys. One AL scouting director says he expects to see more area scouts in homes this year on draft day, collecting signatures just moments after clubs have made their selections.

The old agent ploy of slow-playing negotiations for leverage is passé, because the leverage belongs to the clubs now. If an adviser isn't willing to give a concrete answer, a team will simply pass and move on to the next player. It's a risky bet for a kid and his parents to dally. Wait too long, and you might find yourself signing 10 spots later for significantly less money.

"I've told agents, 'Talk to your client, get your bottom-line number and then be by the phone," a NL general manager says. "When it's draft day, if our slot is $1 million and our pick is five minutes away and we call you and say, 'Hey, we're going to take your guy and we're going to offer him 900,000,' it's yes or no. It's not a negotiation. If you say no, you better hope he doesn't fall three more picks, because then you're swimming upstream."

Say Goodbye To The Wild West

Some wonder if agents eventually could be rendered obsolete under baseball's changing draft landscape. If a prospect is slotted in for $2 million as the 17th pick in the draft, why does he need to hand over $100,000 to an agent to facilitate his deal? His parents can simply put out an all-points-bulletin that he's amenable to signing and pocket the entire amount. Mom and dad don't have to worry about being overwhelmed by the process, because there's little negotiating involved. In some respects, it's less hassle-filled than strolling into a showroom and buying a new car.

Long before the draft takes place, families will have to sit down and determine whether the value of a college scholarship outweighs the instant reward of a signing bonus. In many cases, they'll be making the call without stars in their eyes.

"This is going to be a serious education for players and their families," an AL personnel man says. "It's been like the Wild West out there for a while. But you're not comparing apples to apples with the new system and this one. It's not even in the same orchard."

Changing times may also accentuate the different approaches of agents. San Francisco-based agent Matt Sosnick has built a successful business by working the draft, forging ties with front offices and, in numerous cases, getting players bumped up because teams knew they were amenable to signing quickly. Last year, Sosnick represented four of the first 60 players in the draft. He thinks teams are going to be more anxious than ever to work with agents who are up front and less inclined to foster an air of mystery.

"I think teams are going to make every effort, particularly in the first couple of rounds, to try to have very finite deals in place before they make a pick," Sosnick says. "There's no safety net of another pick or the ability to spend money later in the draft. It ends up being a do-or-die with every pick you make. And I just don't foresee many teams being willing to pick a guy with no thought to what it's going to cost them."

Scott Boras, of course, takes a decidedly different approach. Given his inventiveness and lengthy track record of blazing trails in draft strategy, many front-office people wonder if Boras can find another loophole to exploit. If he has, he's keeping it a secret.

Boras says he thinks the new system places more of a premium than ever on experienced advisers who can evaluate talent and correctly assess the value of prospects, rather than be backed into a corner by external forces.

This year's draft might not prove to be a real test of potential glitches in the system, because the talent pool is relatively weak, and might breed a false sense of security among clubs. Think back to the 2005 draft that produced Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce among the top 12 picks. It might be tough finding enough money for a class like that under the new system.

"The need for experienced representation that knows the value of athletes is in the greatest demand in that type of situation," Boras says. "If a player doesn't know what his value is, he can fall prey to this need for early negotiation and not getting a number that he's truly worth. That evaluation is very difficult in the draft. It requires a great deal of experience and very knowledgeable people who've been through it many, many times."

Boras has been relatively muted in his criticism of the new draft system, but he sees areas where he says it can be improved. For starters, he would like to see teams given more spending flexibility. Not all drafts are created equal, Boras contends, so why not give teams a designated amount of cash over a five-year period, then let them make the call on how much money they should allocate each year based on the talent available?

"If you went to teams and said, 'Over a five-year period, you can spend this amount of money and spend it in whatever years you want,' that system has more of a chance of fairness," Boras says. "In drafts, the talent comes in waves. It does not come in a uniform annual basis. We want scouting to take its effect. If you give teams flexibility, your scouting system might tell you, 'This is going to be a great year.' Scouting operates the way it should. We have to accommodate for the relative lack of consistency with which entry talent is available. This system is void of that very critical consideration."

Boras also proposes rewarding successful low-revenue teams. So if the Rays pick high in the draft and finish first in the AL East, they should be allowed to retain a $10 million allotment the following year, for example, even if they're picking 28th.

"If you're a revenue-sharing club and you win a division, your draft allocation does not get limited," Boras says. "But you have to win. If you finish second, it doesn't work."

Those ideas could be grist for future discussion and revision. In the short term, baseball's 30 clubs will have to navigate on the fly. A team can try to cut corners with its first-round pick in anticipation of using the savings in subsequent rounds—with no certainty which players will be available later in the draft. It's the equivalent of trying to assemble a jigsaw puzzle with only some of the pieces in front of you.

"Before, you could do it one player at a time," says Jeff Luhnow, who owns the No. 1 overall pick in his first year as Astros GM. "Let's make a decision: Are we going to go over slot on this player or not? Of course, your overall budget was impacted. But each pick sort of stood in isolation. Now you have to be more of an orchestra conductor. There's definitely going to be more coordination of signings required."

The process of amateur talent acquisition has entered a whole new phase in its evolution, and front-office people, scouts, advisers, parents and the players themselves are about to see how the storyline unfolds. The draft is set to go. We're about to find out if baseball is ready for it.

That was way too long and I am way too busy. Can you give the coles notes version.

Edit: Alright you caught me. I am being lazy ;)

town123
05-31-2012, 06:05 PM
Jeebus fluck.... did you have to copy the whole article and THEN comment that you're a lazy fluck that didn't read it?

Good read btw.

jaysdynastysoon
06-01-2012, 12:47 AM
good article.

I didn't realize that you could lose 2 first round picks by going over your cap :speechless: ...brutal.

I think they did that to prevent GM's like AA from exploiting the draft.

ex:
Signing a top pick way over the slot then losing your first the next year but make up for it by signing a top IFA during that lost pick year.

But 2 1st rounds is too much to lose. And as the article indicated if you were to do that, it better be for a Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg or another once-in-a-generation prospect.

It would be great and fun if teams were allowed to trade draft picks. :D

bomber0104
06-01-2012, 01:06 AM
i have a feeling this whole new system is gonna get exposed really quick when a top 5 pick will refuse to sign for a team unless the team overpays and loses future picks

anotherqtip420
06-01-2012, 08:45 AM
I know having alot of P's in the system is a good thing but this year i hope we go after position players,something we lack outside of TDA,Gose,Marsnick and Hech. I hope we do something like this projected draft,we take 4 position players and 1 P. Really like the write ups on these guys would be nice to land them.
http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2012-mlb-mock-draft-final-mock-for-top-60-picks/22627/

jaysforever
06-01-2012, 11:14 AM
I know having alot of P's in the system is a good thing but this year i hope we go after position players,something we lack outside of TDA,Gose,Marsnick and Hech. I hope we do something like this projected draft,we take 4 position players and 1 P. Really like the write ups on these guys would be nice to land them.
http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2012-mlb-mock-draft-final-mock-for-top-60-picks/22627/

The Roache pick is a very interesting one. I've often wondered what the jays think of him. I watched his videos on utube and he has tremendous power. Really commands the plate when he gets up there. You can't help but look at him and project him to be a complete stud in LF down the road.

I'm sure they'll come away with at least one power arm in the those first 2 picks. Someone from Simms, Teviso, Berrios, Efflin, Hensley, Fried, Giolitto etc... I wonder who they like the most and if he'll be available.

Can't wait for the draft. For those wondering it is on Sportsnet One on Monday from 7 to 11. First round and supp first. Should be an amazing night.

I hope all you guys check in!

DeRozan10
06-01-2012, 12:42 PM
I hate how excited I am for this Draft

KaiserSose
06-01-2012, 01:16 PM
Keith Law's Mock 3.0 is out on ESPN for insiders but here is a sneak peek at who he is hearing for The Jays!
LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUC!


17. Toronto Blue Jays

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S. (Studio City, Calif.)
They're on everyone -- Smoral, Cecchini, Dahl, prep catcher Stryker Trahan, and even the college arms I have going right ahead of them. There's a strong sentiment that they're one of two or three teams loading up to go over slot recommendations at their first pick for someone like Giolito, Russell or McCullers.


22. Toronto Blue Jays

Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe H.S. (Lake Charles, La.)
He could go as high as No. 12 to the Mets, 17 if Toronto doesn't go over slot or 19. (This is a compensation pick the Blue Jays got for failing to sign first-rounder Tyler Beede a year ago.)

bomber0104
06-01-2012, 01:43 PM
i'm gonna spend saturday and sunday catching up on all the draftees.. only guy i know about is Giolito and i'm usually really up to date on everyone every year

torontosports10
06-01-2012, 01:51 PM
I want Lucas Giolito and Lucas Sims. Mostly because they are both awesome and my name is Lucas

jaysforever
06-01-2012, 05:09 PM
Keith Law's Mock 3.0 is out on ESPN for insiders but here is a sneak peek at who he is hearing for The Jays!
LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUC!


17. Toronto Blue Jays

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S. (Studio City, Calif.)
They're on everyone -- Smoral, Cecchini, Dahl, prep catcher Stryker Trahan, and even the college arms I have going right ahead of them. There's a strong sentiment that they're one of two or three teams loading up to go over slot recommendations at their first pick for someone like Giolito, Russell or McCullers.


22. Toronto Blue Jays

Gavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe H.S. (Lake Charles, La.)
He could go as high as No. 12 to the Mets, 17 if Toronto doesn't go over slot or 19. (This is a compensation pick the Blue Jays got for failing to sign first-rounder Tyler Beede a year ago.)

Wow....would be amazing if they could get Gio. I'm not buying Cecchini at 22...or maybe he just seems unexciting compared to all the power arms and bats available.

town123
06-01-2012, 05:14 PM
Can't wait.

jaysforever
06-01-2012, 10:41 PM
BA has come out with it's 3rd Mock. Here is the complete first round list:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/06/mock-draft-v3-0-list-only/

Blue jays pieces:

17. BLUE JAYS. With the highest pair of first-round selections at 17 and 22, Toronto is well-positioned to make a run at a high school player perceived to have a high-priced tag. If any club is going to gamble on Giolito, it could be the Blue Jays, who also could pursue McCullers or North Carolina prep third baseman Corey Seager. They covet high-ceiling athletes and may want to snap up speedy outfielder D.J. Davis (Mississippi), who might not last five more picks. D.J's father Wayne played in the Jays system from 1985-88.
Projected Pick: D.J. DAVIS.

18. DODGERS. After using its last nine top draft choices on a pitcher, Los Angeles appears headed down that route again. It's difficult to project picks this deep in the first round with much certainty, but a lot of industry insiders are convinced the Dodgers will take Hensley.
Projected Pick: TY HENSLEY.

19. CARDINALS (from Angels for Albert Pujols). Much like Toronto, St. Louis has two late first-round picks and the ability to ante up for a high-priced player. The Cardinals are the other club mentioned most often with Giolito, though where he goes still remains a total guess. Russell or Seager would come with less risk.
Projected Pick: ADDISON RUSSELL.

20. GIANTS. San Francisco masterfully develops young pitching, which could lead it to Hensley, Travieso, Georgia high school righthander Lucas Sims or Florida prep righties Zach Eflin or Walker Weickel. The Giants also could go for a more experience arm in Missouri State righty Pierce Johnson or Florida lefty Brian Johnson.
Projected Pick: NICK TRAVIESO.

21. BRAVES. While Atlanta wouldn't pass up the right pitcher who fell in its lap, it mainly is associated with position players. Dahl would be the top choice but probably won't get here. The Braves could choose between Piscotty and outfielders Tyler Naquin (Texas A&M), Victor Roache (Georgia Southern) and Mitch Haniger (Cal Poly) on the college side and infielder Tanner Rahier (California) and third baseman Mitch Nay (Arizona) among the prepsters. Don't be surprised if Atlanta's first-rounder is one of the first to sign.
Projected Pick: TANNER RAHIER.

22. BLUE JAYS (for failure to sign 2011 first-round Tyler Beede). Toronto hasn't hid its interest in Cecchini and may be able to pass on him at 17 and still snag him here.
Projected Pick: GAVIN CECCHINI.

DeRozan10
06-01-2012, 10:57 PM
If the Jays somehow pick up 2 of Giolito, McCullens, or Travieso I would be sooooo god damn pumped

Eagles4Lyfe
06-01-2012, 11:18 PM
Whats the upside of a McCullens??

Krylian
06-01-2012, 11:36 PM
It's McCullers.

McCullers has a FB that sits in the mid-90's and and can dial it up to the high-90's when he needs to. Has hit 100 several times this spring. Has a power slider in the mid-80's that is a plus pitch when he stays on top of it. He also has a changeup that he throws sparingly as he hasn't ever really needed it, so it's behind his top 2 pitches.

The debate with McCullers was whether he was going to be able to start or be a reliever. His delivery had some considerable effort to it so many thought it wasn't conducive to starting. However, he has cleaned up his mechanics quite a bit this spring and many non-believers are starting to be believers. Hence, his stock has received a bit of a bump over the past month. He was being ranked in the 20's in many Mock Drafts and rankings this Feb-March-Apr...but has since moved to Mid-1st round and possibly a Top 10-12 pick now.

When I read his scouting reports I always thought Brandon Morrow.

town123
06-02-2012, 08:21 AM
BA has come out with it's 3rd Mock. Here is the complete first round list:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2012/06/mock-draft-v3-0-list-only/

Blue jays pieces:

17. BLUE JAYS. With the highest pair of first-round selections at 17 and 22, Toronto is well-positioned to make a run at a high school player perceived to have a high-priced tag. If any club is going to gamble on Giolito, it could be the Blue Jays, who also could pursue McCullers or North Carolina prep third baseman Corey Seager. They covet high-ceiling athletes and may want to snap up speedy outfielder D.J. Davis (Mississippi), who might not last five more picks. D.J's father Wayne played in the Jays system from 1985-88.
Projected Pick: D.J. DAVIS.

18. DODGERS. After using its last nine top draft choices on a pitcher, Los Angeles appears headed down that route again. It's difficult to project picks this deep in the first round with much certainty, but a lot of industry insiders are convinced the Dodgers will take Hensley.
Projected Pick: TY HENSLEY.

19. CARDINALS (from Angels for Albert Pujols). Much like Toronto, St. Louis has two late first-round picks and the ability to ante up for a high-priced player. The Cardinals are the other club mentioned most often with Giolito, though where he goes still remains a total guess. Russell or Seager would come with less risk.
Projected Pick: ADDISON RUSSELL.

20. GIANTS. San Francisco masterfully develops young pitching, which could lead it to Hensley, Travieso, Georgia high school righthander Lucas Sims or Florida prep righties Zach Eflin or Walker Weickel. The Giants also could go for a more experience arm in Missouri State righty Pierce Johnson or Florida lefty Brian Johnson.
Projected Pick: NICK TRAVIESO.

21. BRAVES. While Atlanta wouldn't pass up the right pitcher who fell in its lap, it mainly is associated with position players. Dahl would be the top choice but probably won't get here. The Braves could choose between Piscotty and outfielders Tyler Naquin (Texas A&M), Victor Roache (Georgia Southern) and Mitch Haniger (Cal Poly) on the college side and infielder Tanner Rahier (California) and third baseman Mitch Nay (Arizona) among the prepsters. Don't be surprised if Atlanta's first-rounder is one of the first to sign.
Projected Pick: TANNER RAHIER.

22. BLUE JAYS (for failure to sign 2011 first-round Tyler Beede). Toronto hasn't hid its interest in Cecchini and may be able to pass on him at 17 and still snag him here.
Projected Pick: GAVIN CECCHINI.

Hmmm. Giolito not even mentioned.

jaysdynastysoon
06-02-2012, 09:20 AM
Looking at the BA's Team has to spend article.

I can see us having the chance to draft Giolito if:

first 7 teams don't pick him
and Oakland or Mets don't draft him

every other team ahead of us has less than 7M to spend and if Giolito is looking for 4-5M. It gives them very little left to sign their other picks.

Though, now I think Oakland is going to draft him :mad:

wings
06-02-2012, 09:44 AM
Hmmm. Giolito not even mentioned.
Most experts including the guys at BA and Jon Mayo from MLB.com have this going undrafted. HS pitchers with history of arm trouble whose bonus demands will cripple the rest of your draft make little to no sense for the risk. I know the idea of getting a previous top 2 or 3 potential pick excites people, but the potential of giving up multiple other high ceiling guys to get a kid with arm troubles makes no sense. I think people are underestimating long term concerns of this kids arm troubles. This kid is not a generational type of prospect; healthy; this kid squeaks into the top 10 of last years draft. I have seen a few sites saying the jays could be in a position to grab him; I have yet to see any of the experts say we should.

ILDD
06-02-2012, 09:50 AM
It's McCullers.

McCullers has a FB that sits in the mid-90's and and can dial it up to the high-90's when he needs to. Has hit 100 several times this spring. Has a power slider in the mid-80's that is a plus pitch when he stays on top of it. He also has a changeup that he throws sparingly as he hasn't ever really needed it, so it's behind his top 2 pitches.

The debate with McCullers was whether he was going to be able to start or be a reliever. His delivery had some considerable effort to it so many thought it wasn't conducive to starting. However, he has cleaned up his mechanics quite a bit this spring and many non-believers are starting to be believers. Hence, his stock has received a bit of a bump over the past month. He was being ranked in the 20's in many Mock Drafts and rankings this Feb-March-Apr...but has since moved to Mid-1st round and possibly a Top 10-12 pick now.

When I read his scouting reports I always thought Brandon Morrow.

I've read a few reports and I always think "reliever". Nothing against the kid but unless you're sure he can turn unto a starter I wouldn't draft him.

13Lawrie13
06-02-2012, 10:45 AM
Most experts including the guys at BA and Jon Mayo from MLB.com have this going undrafted. HS pitchers with history of arm trouble whose bonus demands will cripple the rest of your draft make little to no sense for the risk. I know the idea of getting a previous top 2 or 3 potential pick excites people, but the potential of giving up multiple other high ceiling guys to get a kid with arm troubles makes no sense. I think people are underestimating long term concerns of this kids arm troubles. This kid is not a generational type of prospect; healthy; this kid squeaks into the top 10 of last years draft. I have seen a few sites saying the jays could be in a position to grab him; I have yet to see any of the experts say we should.

:laugh2:

You're funny.

A kid with a 100 MPH fastball, that sits in the mid-high 90's, who couples that with a potentially plus-plus curveball and a plus changeup would just squeak into the top-10 of last years draft? Not to mention he's 6'6'', which creates great downward action on his pitches, and he has a clean delivery. Without that injury, this kid would have been the first-overall pick this year.

Eagles4Lyfe
06-02-2012, 11:11 AM
It's McCullers.

McCullers has a FB that sits in the mid-90's and and can dial it up to the high-90's when he needs to. Has hit 100 several times this spring. Has a power slider in the mid-80's that is a plus pitch when he stays on top of it. He also has a changeup that he throws sparingly as he hasn't ever really needed it, so it's behind his top 2 pitches.

The debate with McCullers was whether he was going to be able to start or be a reliever. His delivery had some considerable effort to it so many thought it wasn't conducive to starting. However, he has cleaned up his mechanics quite a bit this spring and many non-believers are starting to be believers. Hence, his stock has received a bit of a bump over the past month. He was being ranked in the 20's in many Mock Drafts and rankings this Feb-March-Apr...but has since moved to Mid-1st round and possibly a Top 10-12 pick now.

When I read his scouting reports I always thought Brandon Morrow.

OMG LMAO im not even lying while I was reading your post I was like hmm sounds like MOrrow then I read your last part and seems like I wasn't the only one to get this impression.
After seeing what we've done with Morrow's delivery and what he's turned into I'd definitely like this pick.

wings
06-02-2012, 12:31 PM
:laugh2:

You're funny.

A kid with a 100 MPH fastball, that sits in the mid-high 90's, who couples that with a potentially plus-plus curveball and a plus changeup would just squeak into the top-10 of last years draft? Not to mention he's 6'6'', which creates great downward action on his pitches, and he has a clean delivery. Without that injury, this kid would have been the first-overall pick this year.
Did not mean to be funny; and this guy probably would have 6 or 7 last year. This year I agree he had a chance to go #1. So Mr guy who thinks I'm funny, you think we should sacrifice 6 or 7 high upside kids to pay this kid?

13Lawrie13
06-02-2012, 01:20 PM
Did not mean to be funny; and this guy probably would have 6 or 7 last year. This year I agree he had a chance to go #1. So Mr guy who thinks I'm funny, you think we should sacrifice 6 or 7 high upside kids to pay this kid?

Sitting at 6 or 7 shouldn't be considered squeaking into the top-10. I'm also not convinced he wouldn't have been picked higher.

Dylan Bundy and Golito are very similar stuff wise. Both of them have (when healthy) hard, plus (Bundy's should now be considered plus-plus with his impeccable command) fastballs. They both couple that with a potential plus-plus pitch (curveball) and plus pitch (change-up). Both are considered to have fairly clean deliveries and good control on their pitches. They both also had/have strong commitments to their respective colleges, and both needed/will need a fair chunk-of-change to be lured to play pro-ball. What separates them is projection. Golito is 6'6'', while Bundy is a hair over 6'.

Now, saying this, Bundy is dominating in the minor-leagues, and I would most definitely prefer him to Golito right now (and will until Golito pitches pro-ball and proves he can pitch at the level Bundy is pitching at), but at the time of the draft, I'm not so sure a healthy Golito wouldn't go before Dylan Bundy.

You also say that we'd have to sacrifice 6 or 7 high-upside guys to sign Golito, but if we assume that Golito wants about 4 million (that's what is being reported), then we wouldn't be able to split up 4 million between 6 or 7 high-upside guys. It would be more like two high-upside guys, with each receiving around 2 million. It's also worth considering that none of the other high-upside guys will have the ceiling of Golito. If Golito returns to normal, he could easily be the best player to come out of this draft.

I would rather see the Jays come out with players like Golito and Dahl (and then some of the lower slot guys), then come out with a ton of high-floor, low-ceiling guys.

jaysforever
06-02-2012, 01:31 PM
You also say that we'd have to sacrifice 6 or 7 high-upside guys to sign Golito, but if we assume that Golito wants about 4 million (that's what is being reported), then we wouldn't be able to split up 4 million between 6 or 7 high-upside guys. It would be more like two high-upside guys, with each receiving around 2 million. It's also worth considering that none of the other high-upside guys will have the ceiling of Golito. If Golito returns to normal, he could easily be the best player to come out of this draft.

I.

I think it makes a lot more sense to go the other way. Just draft as many high upside kids as you can similar to last year with an awareness of their signing cost. Then try to sign as many as you can underslot and then pass the savings right on down the line so that you could, for example, pick up a guy like Matt Dean in the seventh round for $700k.

The draft slots are very generous and i don't think you have to pay guys 1.8 and 2 million for the 22 and 17 pick.

Gio is interesting, but at no more than $3mm. less is better obviously.

13Lawrie13
06-02-2012, 01:44 PM
I think it makes a lot more sense to go the other way. Just draft as many high upside kids as you can similar to last year with an awareness of their signing cost. Then try to sign as many as you can underslot and then pass the savings right on down the line so that you could, for example, pick up a guy like Matt Dean in the seventh round for $700k.

The draft slots are very generous and i don't think you have to pay guys 1.8 and 2 million for the 22 and 17 pick.

Gio is interesting, but at no more than $3mm. less is better obviously.

I think if he's available when the Jays pick (big if), they should pick him.

He has the highest upside of any pitcher in this draft, and I don't think I'd be okay with the Jays passing that up.

I mean, would you rather have two prospects in the 50 range, or one prospect in the top-5/10 range? Would you rather have an ace, or two middle-of-the-rotation starters?

The answer, for me, is simple.

Pride
06-02-2012, 03:32 PM
Sitting at 6 or 7 shouldn't be considered squeaking into the top-10. I'm also not convinced he wouldn't have been picked higher.

Dylan Bundy and Golito are very similar stuff wise. Both of them have (when healthy) hard, plus (Bundy's should now be considered plus-plus with his impeccable command) fastballs. They both couple that with a potential plus-plus pitch (curveball) and plus pitch (change-up). Both are considered to have fairly clean deliveries and good control on their pitches. They both also had/have strong commitments to their respective colleges, and both needed/will need a fair chunk-of-change to be lured to play pro-ball. What separates them is projection. Golito is 6'6'', while Bundy is a hair over 6'.

Now, saying this, Bundy is dominating in the minor-leagues, and I would most definitely prefer him to Golito right now (and will until Golito pitches pro-ball and proves he can pitch at the level Bundy is pitching at), but at the time of the draft, I'm not so sure a healthy Golito wouldn't go before Dylan Bundy.

You also say that we'd have to sacrifice 6 or 7 high-upside guys to sign Golito, but if we assume that Golito wants about 4 million (that's what is being reported), then we wouldn't be able to split up 4 million between 6 or 7 high-upside guys. It would be more like two high-upside guys, with each receiving around 2 million. It's also worth considering that none of the other high-upside guys will have the ceiling of Golito. If Golito returns to normal, he could easily be the best player to come out of this draft.

I would rather see the Jays come out with players like Golito and Dahl (and then some of the lower slot guys), then come out with a ton of high-floor, low-ceiling guys.

Jim Callis has said a few times before Giolito got injured that he would take the top 6 of last years draft before anyone from this years draft. I would love for Giolito to fall to us, but I doubt he would make it there.

Pride
06-02-2012, 03:37 PM
Did not mean to be funny; and this guy probably would have 6 or 7 last year. This year I agree he had a chance to go #1. So Mr guy who thinks I'm funny, you think we should sacrifice 6 or 7 high upside kids to pay this kid?

To be fair, last year's draft was one of the best drafts in recent times. The top 6 from that draft could have gone #1 in other drafts. That doesn't take away how good a prospect Giolito is. If he is available, I expect the Jays to take a good run at him.

Krylian
06-02-2012, 03:59 PM
Jim Callis has said a few times before Giolito got injured that he would take the top 6 of last years draft before anyone from this years draft. I would love for Giolito to fall to us, but I doubt he would make it there.

He also said Bundy and Giolito are not similar pitchers.

13Lawrie13
06-02-2012, 04:25 PM
He also said Bundy and Giolito are not similar pitchers.

Which isn't what I said.

I said that, at the time of their drafts, their stuff was similar.

wings
06-02-2012, 06:01 PM
I would rather see the Jays come out with players like Golito and Dahl (and then some of the lower slot guys), then come out with a ton of high-floor, low-ceiling guys.

I don't want high floor low ceiling guys either, but to get him for an asking price of $5M, he is your draft. you can forget about Dahl, as pick 22 will need to be around a projected 50 type player; then keep reaching by about a round for every other pick, offering half of the slotted bonus. I want a guy like Dahl, and pair him with a Sims, Hensley or Smoral (all high ceilings) and then continue to be aggressive with picks 50 and on with Blackburn, Velasquez , Rash and Underwood types, who are all high ceilings and worthy of those picks. Go after a kid like SS Cory Raley, a high end athlete, and buy him away from a football scholly at Texas A&M for $800K or so. But none of this will be possible if we give Giolito $5M plus, as our hands will be tied. Arm injuries and HS pitchers are a scary combo; but if you can get him for 1 maybe 1.5 over slot I can see taking the risk as you can manage without sacrificing the rest of you draft; otherwise use your money to draft as many high ceiling kids in every round as we can.

wings
06-02-2012, 06:08 PM
To be fair, last year's draft was one of the best drafts in recent times. The top 6 from that draft could have gone #1 in other drafts. That doesn't take away how good a prospect Giolito is. If he is available, I expect the Jays to take a good run at him.

I understand this and fully understand that he is an elite prospect; simply making the point that if I am going to sacrifice my entire remaining draft; the kid better be one of the best ever ie Harper.

wings
06-02-2012, 06:13 PM
I mean, would you rather have two prospects in the 50 range, or one prospect in the top-5/10 range? Would you rather have an ace, or two middle-of-the-rotation starters?

The answer, for me, is simple.

You are going to have to give way more than 2 top 50s to get enough extra cash to give him $5M. And the Ace has arm troubles.

We will see how it all plays out on Monday!!!