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TO Rapz
01-30-2012, 11:23 PM
Let's calculate it shall we.

A lot of you may not know me because I do not post often in this forum, but I post more often in the Leafs, NHL, NBA, Raptors, NFL etc. Anyways..let's get to the calculations now to predict how improved the Jays really are.



Last year's starting lineup:

1) Rajai Davis - CF
2) Yunel Escobar - SS
3) Jose Bautista - RF
4) Adam Lind - 1B
5) Aaron Hill - 2B
6) Edwin Encarnancion - 3B
7) Travis Snider - LF
8) Juan Rivera - DH
9) JP Arencibia - C

1) Rajai Davis/Colby Rasmus CF: He only played 95 games for us, but in those 95 games folks, Rajai Davis managed to somehow chalk up a -0.2 WAR. :clap: :facepalm:

Of course, we traded for Colby Rasmus later on in the year, but Rasmus only played 35 games. However in those 35 games, Rasmus managed to chalk up a -0.5 WAR. With STL over 94 games earlier, he had a 1.3 WAR. We balance it out, say that Rasmus had approximately a 0.8 WAR year last year: Combined..-0.8 WAR between Rasmus and Rajai.

2) Yunel Escobar SS: Escobar had a phenomenal year last year. He posted a .290 AVG, .369 OBP, .413 SLG, .345 wOBA, and posted a .123 ISO (which is good for a SS). Yunel Escobar last year was a 4.3 WAR. This year, according to fangraphs, he is projected to be a 4.8 WAR player. That is ofcourse assuming the best, but Bill James, RotoChamp, and Fans all project Yunel to have a similar if not better year this year, and I don't see why not. So let's say our production at SS remains the same, give or take: 4.3 WAR last year.

3) Jose Bautista LF: I cannot express how amazing a season Jose had last year. He had a .302 AVG, .447 OBP, .608 SLG, .306 ISO (:speechless:), 181 wRC+ and produced a 8.3 WAR season. Fangraphs projects Joey Bats to decrease his WAR by about 1, so he'll provide us with 1 less win: 8.3 WAR last year.

4) Adam Lind 1B: We know how mediocre he was last year. His killer .295 OBP and 0.5 WAR was terrible 1B production. His power was meh with a .188 ISO, and obviously Lind just had a terrible season in general. Yes he produced 26 HR's because of a hot stretch, but that doesn't tell the story at all, his advanced stats show that: 0.5 WAR last year.

5) Aaron Hill/KJ 2B: During 104 games as a Jay, he had a -0.8 WAR. His #s were atrocious. :facepalm: Now in 33 games, Kelly Johnson came in and provided us a 0.8 WAR partial season, so they cancel out. 0 WAR last year.

6) Edwin Encarnancion DH: 135 games, 1.5 WAR. Solid year for him, not too bad, not too great, but wasn't atrocious like the other Jays: 1.5 WAR

7) Travis Snider / Eric Thames LF: Snider played 49 games and had a 0.3 WAR last year. Hardly anything meaningful from him. Thames had a 0.9 WAR year in 95 games. Combined, we produced 1.2 WAR from the LF position: 1.2 WAR

8) Juan Rivera/Brett Lawrie 3B: He played 70 games here last year, and had -0.1 WAR. Lets assume Brett Lawrie played instead of Rivera, and plug in his WAR in this case, so in 43 games, Lawrie had a 2.7 WAR. 2.6 WAR produced from 3B.

9) JP Arencibia C: 129 games, 1.5 WAR, and Jose Molina is out now, so he's our guy.

So now we all have a look at how bad our last year was, let's take a look at our projected improvements in the players we have acquired/traded for over the last year. The changes from our 2011 to 2012 opening day lineup are vast.

So now, our opening day 2011 lineup went from:

Rajai Davis, Yunel Escobar, Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Edwin Encarnancion, Travis Snider, Juan Rivera, JP Arencibia..

...to...

Yunel Escobar, Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind, Kelly Johnson, Edwin Encarnancion, Travis Snider/Eric Thames, JP Arencibia.

Let's calculate the WAR improvements/projections to estimate how many more wins this lineup will give over last year now.

Earlier in the post, we decided that Yunel Escobar should have a similar year, so there will be no improvement there, that cancels out.

Rajai Davis to Colby Rasmus:

Again, last year, Davis and Rasmus together had a -0.8 WAR. According to fangraphs this year, Colby Rasmus should have a line that looks like this:

.255 AVG, .334 OBP, .446 SLG, .341 wOBA, and a 3.4 WAR. So our CF position goes from -0.8 WAR to a 3.4 WAR, making it literally a 4.2 WAR increase. Being a bit humble, I think a full season underneath Colby Rasmus where he comes into training camp healthy, and ready mentally into a new team, we should see atleast a 2 win increase instead of 4 from our CF.

Say Joey Bats has a lesser season to that of last year. He literally carried this team, and his WAR value was just ridiculous. 1 less win this year from Jose, sorry guys, I love him as much as the next guy, but I mean he cannot do what he did last year again IMO. We will wait and see. So after a 2 W increase from CF, we have a 1 W decrease at RF, and SS is equal, so a 1 W increase thus far.

Let's complete the OF with the Snider and Thames platoon we run, although it is not much of a platoon, just whomever plays better.

Bill James has the following stat line projected:
8 HR's, 33 RBIs, 30 Runs, .271 AVG, .329 OBP, .452 SLG in 77 games.

Fans has him projected playing 99 games at a 1.9 WAR.

Eric Thames is projected to play 111 games hitting .279/.333/.489, but obviously this wouldn't make sense as there are not more then 162 games to go around. In 111 games, Eric is projected to produce a 1.5 WAR.

Take a look: Thames in 111 = 1.5 WAR, Snider in 99 = 1.9 WAR. Let's just assume each plays 81 games. That would approximate to Snider having a 1.5 WAR, and Thames having a 1.1 WAR. Putting these two players together can be really tricky for FanGraphs, Bill James and everyone's projections, as they have not proven what they can do yet. All numbers aside, I expect 1 additional win from them 2 this year, because last year wasn't great for either, and I expect Snider to breakout. So thats +2 wins now covering the OF, and SS.

2B: Last year Hill and KJ combined to produce 0 WAR. League average, nothing special at all. Well this year we expect things from KJ, and last year Hill was one of the worst 2B to play in the game for 100 games or so statistically. In 2010, KJ produced a WOPPING 5.9 WAR season, and last year produced 2.2, even though he wasn't great. Fangraphs has him predicted with a 3.8 WAR, which would lead to 3.8+ wins this year for our team, but this maybe unrealistic. I think it would be fair to say again, that KJ is 2 more wins then Aaron Hill after putting his #s together in total. That's 3 wins with 1B and 3B, C.

3B: Lawrie is projected for an unrealistic 6.8 WAR year coming up, this would put him as one of the better MLB players in the game, amongst the talent of the Joey Votto's, and Albert Pujols'. Obviously we will have to see how Lawrie performs this year, but after dealing with Nix, Rivera, Encarnancion all there earlier in the year, I'd assume 1 win added is realistic from a fullseason of Brett Lawrie. That's 4 wins.

1B: I wouldn't get my hopes up for Adam Lind. In 2010, he managed to be below league average, as he had a -0.8 WAR. In the AL East this is simply not going to cut it at all, and last year he only had a 0.5 WAR, BARELY above a league average replacement player's stats. I simply cannot see Lind having any more success here in TO, and if he does, it'll be 0.5 - 1 WAR max. I'm going to leave this neutral with 0 wins added.

C: JP ofcourse had the low batting average, and OBP, but a high SLG. He's clearly a power guy with a high K%, of 27.4, and a high ISO of .219. With the loss of Molina however, fans won't realize how important a backup C is. Molina groomed our young staff decently, and gave us a reliable option there. Pending on who fills this role, I say this either stands pat, or even we lose a win here due to not being completely stable. JP's year will be interesting for sure.

All in all, with the Fangraph projections from years past of the players from last year's Opening Day Lineup, compared to this year's projections that have been realistic and more condensed, it looks like the Jays have added approximately 4 wins to their brutal roster from last year IF everything goes according to plan. If not, 2 or 3 wins is realistic enough. This lineup has increased our overall record to 83-79, with the MAJOR hole being at 1B in the AL East with Lind batting there, and will heavily rely on the improvement of young player Brett Lawrie.

*All stats are based on no injuries occuring.
** All stats are from Fangraphs and BillJames projections.

If you guys would like, I'll do the pitching staff and our pen later on. :shrug

bluenoserINsd
01-31-2012, 03:30 AM
Nice work! I don't think a +4 win season is a stretch just from a few changes in our lineup. I think the biggest intangible this season will be the confidence provided from a solid pen. Getting nervous every time we hooked a starter last year must have taken a toll on the optimism and confidence of the entire team.

If you do your WAR calculations for the pen, I'd expect them to be a small 1 or 2 game improvement, but with intangibles, I'd expect us to have a 3 or 4 extra wins on top of that.

wamco
01-31-2012, 10:00 AM
now do one for bost, tb and ny to put it in some sort of perspective.

LuckyLuke2
01-31-2012, 10:52 AM
Yeah solid post.

Last year's lineup:

1) Rajai Davis - CF
2) Yunel Escobar - SS
3) Jose Bautista - RF
4) Adam Lind - 1B
5) Aaron Hill - 2B
6) Edwin Encarnancion - 3B
7) Travis Snider - LF
8) Juan Rivera - DH
9) JP Arencibia - C


Compared to this years, although it isn't set in stone.

1) Yunel Escobar - SS
2) Colby Rasmus - CF
3) Jose Bautista - RF
4) Adam Lind - 1B
5) Kelly Johnson - 2B
6) Brett Lawrie - 3B
7) Edwin Encarnacion - DH
8) Eric Thames - LF
9) J.P Arencibia - C

I could be off with the batting order but that's what it looks like the lineup will be minus possibly having Snider in LF.

LuckyLuke2
01-31-2012, 10:55 AM
If you look at the minimal changes, is Encarnacion a better DH then Rivera? I would say so yes.

Is Kelly Johnson a better offensive hitting 2B compared to Hill? Tough call, arguable. I would say Yes simply because of Hill's inconsistency at the plate, but he was a team leader and good defensively.

Rasmus is a clear upgrade over Davis if he can put it together that is a huge improvement.

Brett Lawrie if he doesn't go through a sophomore slump is a much bigger improvement to Encarnacion at 3rd who is dreadful there...

And then there is Thames over Snider debate... and I am in Thames favor although many disagree about that. So overall, the improvement's are drastic but the lineup all in all does look better than last year's.

scottythegreat1
01-31-2012, 11:25 AM
Thats a good palce to start Brett Lawrie NOW......but Im willing to bet by the trade deadline, he is batting 5th, or even cleanup.

Twitchy
01-31-2012, 11:47 AM
I think you're being too conservative, and that the lineup adds 4 wins at minimum with the upside to do more. The difference between Rasmus and Davis/Patterson, KJ and the 2010 Hill, Lawrie and Nix/McDonald is pretty significant.

Interesting work for sure. I'd avoid Bill James projections as they're pretty awful in general.

damadmonk
01-31-2012, 11:50 AM
Thank you TS. Please post more often :clap:

Tough to argue with the analysis.

I would figure the pen would give us an extra 5 wins alone. :)

damadmonk
01-31-2012, 11:56 AM
I think you're being too conservative, and that the lineup adds 4 wins at minimum with the upside to do more. The difference between Rasmus and Davis/Patterson, KJ and the 2010 Hill, Lawrie and Nix/McDonald is pretty significant.


I would say they are conservative. Again injures would throw a wrench in these projections and or a huge breakout.

I predict the pitching stuff (both) would add another 7 wins easy.

miller74
01-31-2012, 11:59 AM
Reports is the trade that AA turned downed involving Lawrie was for Michael Pineda.

Twitchy
01-31-2012, 12:06 PM
I would say they are conservative. Again injures would throw a wrench in these projections and or a huge breakout.

I predict the pitching stuff (both) would add another 7 wins easy.

Well it's harder to predict injuries so you don't put them in your calculations. Unless the player has a history of being injury prone.

I don't think the pitching staff can add 7 wins :(. At best you're replacing the Reyes/Villaneuva (as a SP) innings with Henderson which would be 2, and whoever the back end guy replaces the 150-200 innings of a 5.00+ ERA (pick your poison of Drabek, Litsch, or anybody not named Reyes/Villanueva from last year).

I'd say 3, maybe 4 at the high point for the rotation AND the pen. You really need a breakout from Morrow and/or McGowan to push it above that.

StayOnBoard
01-31-2012, 12:46 PM
Reports is the trade that AA turned downed involving Lawrie was for Michael Pineda.

Makes perfect sense and what I said when it happened.

Its funny - Jays fans RAGE they couldn't get Pineda, but would have raged harder if we traded Lawrie to get him.

Moral of the story... trade crap for elite players and AA is the man, anything else, Jays suck. Think I got that right...

Sanyo
01-31-2012, 12:54 PM
Lawrie is absolutely untouchable unless we're talking elite level now guys like Clayton Kershaw or someone like that (obviously its not happening but its just an example of a guy you would include Lawrie in a package deal with).

I love the Jays farm but if it meant getting back someone elite Im willing to deal 2-3 of them in package to get that player...

But the good thing is if a few of these Jays pitchers emerge to be pretty good -- not even ace but 2 or 3 as you saw in the off-season you can get a decent haul back -- Latos is arguably a #2 right now, same with Gio-- so if Morrow or Drabek someone picked it up in 2012, Jays could either get a package of prospects or maybe a good vet bat for them (though if Morrow emerges I really dont want to trade him unless it really was a good player back).

Rogi10
01-31-2012, 12:58 PM
Well it's harder to predict injuries so you don't put them in your calculations. Unless the player has a history of being injury prone.

I don't think the pitching staff can add 7 wins :(. At best you're replacing the Reyes/Villaneuva (as a SP) innings with Henderson which would be 2, and whoever the back end guy replaces the 150-200 innings of a 5.00+ ERA (pick your poison of Drabek, Litsch, or anybody not named Reyes/Villanueva from last year).

I'd say 3, maybe 4 at the high point for the rotation AND the pen. You really need a breakout from Morrow and/or McGowan to push it above that.

I have an unheatlhy optimism that Morrows periphs equal sucess in 2012. Hell, i'll go as far to say Morrow will shine, and be bettter than Romero.

I believe in a better tomorrow.

TO Rapz
01-31-2012, 01:27 PM
Nice work! I don't think a +4 win season is a stretch just from a few changes in our lineup. I think the biggest intangible this season will be the confidence provided from a solid pen. Getting nervous every time we hooked a starter last year must have taken a toll on the optimism and confidence of the entire team.

If you do your WAR calculations for the pen, I'd expect them to be a small 1 or 2 game improvement, but with intangibles, I'd expect us to have a 3 or 4 extra wins on top of that.
I agree.


now do one for bost, tb and ny to put it in some sort of perspective.
I will. I can do a series of posts? 1: Lineup, 2: Rotation/Pen, 3: Our Opponents, all improvements.


Yeah solid post.

Last year's lineup:

1) Rajai Davis - CF
2) Yunel Escobar - SS
3) Jose Bautista - RF
4) Adam Lind - 1B
5) Aaron Hill - 2B
6) Edwin Encarnancion - 3B
7) Travis Snider - LF
8) Juan Rivera - DH
9) JP Arencibia - C


Compared to this years, although it isn't set in stone.

1) Yunel Escobar - SS
2) Colby Rasmus - CF
3) Jose Bautista - RF
4) Adam Lind - 1B
5) Kelly Johnson - 2B
6) Brett Lawrie - 3B
7) Edwin Encarnacion - DH
8) Eric Thames - LF
9) J.P Arencibia - C

I could be off with the batting order but that's what it looks like the lineup will be minus possibly having Snider in LF.
That's approximately right yeah.


If you look at the minimal changes, is Encarnacion a better DH then Rivera? I would say so yes.

Is Kelly Johnson a better offensive hitting 2B compared to Hill? Tough call, arguable. I would say Yes simply because of Hill's inconsistency at the plate, but he was a team leader and good defensively.

Rasmus is a clear upgrade over Davis if he can put it together that is a huge improvement.

Brett Lawrie if he doesn't go through a sophomore slump is a much bigger improvement to Encarnacion at 3rd who is dreadful there...

And then there is Thames over Snider debate... and I am in Thames favor although many disagree about that. So overall, the improvement's are drastic but the lineup all in all does look better than last year's.

I agree with what you said, and I would just like to address that bolded part.

I cannot express how bad Aaron Hill was for his season here last year, and I don't mean to pick on him because I loved Hill. But..

In 104 games, .225 AVG, .270 OBP, .313 SLG, .264 wOBA, -0.8 WAR. But many people say that his defense was what made him good, well over the years, yes Hill was strong defensively, but last year he was bad defensively also. Over the years Hill was good, but take a look:

UZR/150 in 2006: 20.4
in 2007: 4.4
in 2008: 2.9
in 2009: -4.3 (but this was the year he played minimal games due to injuries so ignore it)
in 2010: 4.3
So his UZR/150 was good as we should use a large sample size over a lesser one to evaluate a player's defensive skill, but last year, in his 100 game stint with the Jays, his UZR/150 was on projection to be -5.6. He had a terrible year overall offensively and defensively. I think KJ will give us a much better year, and could equate to a much more successful season.


Thats a good palce to start Brett Lawrie NOW......but Im willing to bet by the trade deadline, he is batting 5th, or even cleanup.
Yeah, I don't want to overrate any of our players though. I sure hope Lawrie becomes what we want him to.


I think you're being too conservative, and that the lineup adds 4 wins at minimum with the upside to do more. The difference between Rasmus and Davis/Patterson, KJ and the 2010 Hill, Lawrie and Nix/McDonald is pretty significant.

Interesting work for sure. I'd avoid Bill James projections as they're pretty awful in general.
I agree. I was being very conservative because I'm not sure what to think. Will Brett Lawrie go into a sophomore slump? Will KJ produce? What kind of a season will Lind have? But yes you are correct, i projected minimally, and I think this lineup is a minimum of 4 wins, with the potential to add.

Regarding Bill James, yeah, i used Fangraphs, Bill James and Rotoworld all put together for the projections. :up:



Thank you TS. Please post more often :clap:

Tough to argue with the analysis.

I would figure the pen would give us an extra 5 wins alone. :)
No problem, I'll try to for sure. I'll post the pen later on.


I would say they are conservative. Again injures would throw a wrench in these projections and or a huge breakout.

I predict the pitching stuff (both) would add another 7 wins easy.
7 wins maybe a stretch tbh, I sure hope it can happen though, but we'll see.

TO Rapz
01-31-2012, 01:31 PM
I have an unheatlhy optimism that Morrows periphs equal sucess in 2012. Hell, i'll go as far to say Morrow will shine, and be bettter than Romero.

I believe in a better tomorrow.

I agree with you completely. Morrow's peripherals are ****ing ridiculous.

wamco
01-31-2012, 07:05 PM
I think you're being too conservative, and that the lineup adds 4 wins at minimum with the upside to do more. The difference between Rasmus and Davis/Patterson, KJ and the 2010 Hill, Lawrie and Nix/McDonald is pretty significant.

Interesting work for sure. I'd avoid Bill James projections as they're pretty awful in general.

James is a genius, but his projections are always out to lunch. Notoriously on the high side year after year.

TO Rapz
02-01-2012, 04:39 PM
James is a genius, but his projections are always out to lunch. Notoriously on the high side year after year.

Agreed.

Mitchell133
02-01-2012, 07:36 PM
Very well done sir.

Sanyo
02-01-2012, 10:09 PM
Jays lineup 2015 projection:

Gose CF
Marisnick RF
Bautista 1B
Lawrie 3B
D'Arnaud C
Thames DH (he will be a surprise)
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Rasmus LF

Romero, Alvarez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Hutch. Norris, Comer and Cardona the ones looking in.

TO Rapz
02-02-2012, 12:30 AM
Very well done sir.
Thank you kindly.


Jays lineup 2015 projection:

Gose CF
Marisnick RF
Bautista 1B
Lawrie 3B
D'Arnaud C
Thames DH (he will be a surprise)
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Rasmus LF

Romero, Alvarez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Hutch. Norris, Comer and Cardona the ones looking in.

Looks good to me, why move Baut to 1B and decrease his value, instead of signing a major FA at 1st or trading for one as the years come along.

Sanyo
02-02-2012, 12:34 AM
Thank you kindly.



Looks good to me, why move Baut to 1B and decrease his value, instead of signing a major FA at 1st or trading for one as the years come along.


You certainly right but but assuming Bautista wants to still be fielding in 2015, 1B will likely be his only option -- that or DH'ing. Personally I agree I would prefer a big young bat at 1B and Bautista at DH but its hard to predict at this point what's going to happen. I guess for now keep Bautista at first and see how things change...

TO Rapz
02-02-2012, 01:23 AM
You certainly right but but assuming Bautista wants to still be fielding in 2015, 1B will likely be his only option -- that or DH'ing. Personally I agree I would prefer a big young bat at 1B and Bautista at DH but its hard to predict at this point what's going to happen. I guess for now keep Bautista at first and see how things change...

Yeah I agree, 2015 is still ways away and Jose is 31, by the time 2015 hits he will 34ish so yeah, he could be transitioning from day-to-day OF'er to a 1B man.

TO Rapz
02-02-2012, 07:09 PM
This thread failed, I don't think people took the time to read everything. :(

dtmagnet
02-02-2012, 07:17 PM
You put a lot of work into this, thank you!

BlueJaysFan
02-02-2012, 10:26 PM
This thread failed, I don't think people took the time to read everything. :(

I read it all :D Great work!

TO Rapz
02-02-2012, 11:03 PM
You put a lot of work into this, thank you!


I read it all :D Great work!

Thanks guys. :clap:

Sanyo
02-02-2012, 11:20 PM
Thanks guys. :clap:

Agreed. I could see this thread more utilized as we get closer to the season anyways, dont fret yet my friend, this thread could see better days :)

TO Rapz
02-02-2012, 11:42 PM
Agreed. I could see this thread more utilized as we get closer to the season anyways, dont fret yet my friend, this thread could see better days :)

I'm thinking about making one for our pitching and pen also to realistically see how many wins we've added from there too. Thanks though.

StealingSigns
02-03-2012, 02:45 AM
I'm thinking about making one for our pitching and pen also to realistically see how many wins we've added from there too. Thanks though.

I like the original post. The bullpen is definitely upgraded, though how many wins that translates to is a crapshoot.

WhatSayYou
02-03-2012, 04:23 AM
I read it, it was good! (better than alot of sportsnet articles)

rubeus
02-03-2012, 09:55 AM
nice analysis.

1 point of disagreement, I believe Lind can rebound.
He has a solid swing, I believe he can get his numbers back up above
the last 2 years production.

And if he doesn't early in this season, I think we will bring in a right handed bat to platoon with him. So he doesn't need to see any lefties. (His major weakness)

darius
02-03-2012, 07:42 PM
I'd say 4-5 wins, in terms of position lineup, more than last year is fair.

But where I think we gain 10 wins is the bullpen. The 'pen blew 20 saves last year, right? Was it that ridiculously high? So, if that was the case, then they should be able to finish off half of those.

So, 15 wins more than last year :) 97 wins for a playoff spot.

wamco
02-03-2012, 08:45 PM
But where I think we gain 10 wins is the bullpen


-show your math

TO Rapz
02-03-2012, 10:50 PM
But where I think we gain 10 wins is the bullpen


-show your math

Yeah, that's not how it works. You can't just assume that out of the 26 (i think i could be off) blown saves (also a very vague stat that has numerous meanings to it), we'll claim half the wins. That's quite naive to be honest just because of the way the blown save stat is built up, I'll try and post a thread for our pitching.

darius
02-04-2012, 02:26 PM
Yeah, that's not how it works. You can't just assume that out of the 26 (i think i could be off) blown saves (also a very vague stat that has numerous meanings to it), we'll claim half the wins. That's quite naive to be honest just because of the way the blown save stat is built up, I'll try and post a thread for our pitching.

Naive? Really?

I think it's naive to think that a vastly improved bullpen *won't* translate to significantly way more wins. And I say 10. The Blue Jays blew 26 saves last year, where a blown save is defined as:

"A blown save (abbreviated BS or B) is charged to a pitcher who enters a game in a situation which permits him to earn a save (a save situation or save opportunity), but who instead allows the tying run to score." by Wikipedia.

GM_AA obviously felt that improving the bullpen was the most important thing to do this year, given the number of FA signings and trades involved with the bullpen reconstruction. Obviously he uses better metrics than my gut feeling on the 10 wins, but his metrics must indicate that an improved bullpen is the best bang for the buck to get more W's.

Unless you are suggesting GM_AA is naive in thinking that way. That would be mildy ********.

wamco
02-04-2012, 03:00 PM
if you are going to use the term, at least update it accurately to a mild intellectual disability.

It's just a silly stat that gets thrown around, the blown save. I'd only count it if it were in the 9th inning. a 10 win improvement is a hell of an improvement, what was bautista's WAR last year?

Twitchy
02-05-2012, 12:57 PM
It's important to understand that a blown save doesn't mean the team has lost a game. For example, Frank Fransisco has 2 blown saves where the Jays won a game. Rauch has another BS where he "earned" the win. So to say the Jays will win 10 extra games isn't really accurate, because a fair number of blown saves occurred when the Jays actually won a game.

It's a really meaningless stat. You can blow a save and still technically win a game. Which is why evaluating things with wins, losses, saves, holds, or blown saves is really pointless. They don't really tell us anything meaningful.

TO Rapz
02-05-2012, 01:04 PM
Thank you twitchy that's what I meant to say. Didn't mean to affend you Darius.

LuckyLuke2
02-05-2012, 01:45 PM
It's important to understand that a blown save doesn't mean the team has lost a game. For example, Frank Fransisco has 2 blown saves where the Jays won a game. Rauch has another BS where he "earned" the win. So to say the Jays will win 10 extra games isn't really accurate, because a fair number of blown saves occurred when the Jays actually won a game.

It's a really meaningless stat. You can blow a save and still technically win a game. Which is why evaluating things with wins, losses, saves, holds, or blown saves is really pointless. They don't really tell us anything meaningful.

Yeah agreed. A blown save is sort of pointless... a lot of closers get their wins off blown saves.

AA09-?
02-07-2012, 10:18 AM
Yeah agreed. A blown save is sort of pointless... a lot of closers get their wins off blown saves.

I think pointless is an off base term, however, you have to look further into it. When was the blown save in the game? What was the final outcome of the game?

wamco
02-07-2012, 05:11 PM
isn't santos 31 for 39 in his career?

'94 Expos
02-08-2012, 07:22 PM
Is there a bench WAR or some way to measure the value of the bench?
Davis going 1st to 3rd late in the game as a pinch runner is quite appealing.

TO Rapz
02-09-2012, 12:29 AM
I read it, it was good! (better than alot of sportsnet articles)


nice analysis.

1 point of disagreement, I believe Lind can rebound.
He has a solid swing, I believe he can get his numbers back up above
the last 2 years production.

And if he doesn't early in this season, I think we will bring in a right handed bat to platoon with him. So he doesn't need to see any lefties. (His major weakness)

Thanks guys, I sure hope Lind can find his ways.


Is there a bench WAR or some way to measure the value of the bench?
Davis going 1st to 3rd late in the game as a pinch runner is quite appealing.

Hm interesting thought. I'll look into the advanced stats tomorrow and see if I can figure something out.

'94 Expos
02-09-2012, 01:55 AM
Cool