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PJ Awesome
01-28-2012, 06:48 PM
Thought it would be fun as we're just about a month away from spring training, with the current roster, what would your opening day roster look like? with everything, I'd "want" to see this


C - Arencibia
1st - Lind
2nd - Johnson
SS - Escobar
3rd - Lawrie
LF - Thames
CF - Rasmus
RF - Who Else
DH - E5/E3

Bench
Francisco
Visquel
Davis
Mathis ;)


Rotation
Romero
Morrow
McGowan
Alverez
Cecil/Litsch/Drabek

Almighty Bullpen
C - Santos
SU - Cordero
SU - Janssen
Oliver
Frasor
Laffey
Villanueva



Only thing I have a problem with is that rotation. Looks very MEH

DeRozan10
01-28-2012, 07:23 PM
AA has said that come Feb 1 things will pretty much be dead on the trade wire, so I expect that we have now, is what were gonna have come opening day.

Without any injurys this is how I would like it to look ...

Starting Lineup

(R) Yunel Escobar - SS
(L) Colby Rasmus - CF
(R) Jose Bautista - RF
(L) Adam Lind - 1B
(R) Brett Lawrie - 3B
(L) Kelly Johnson - 2B
(L) Eric Thames - LF/DH
(R) J.P. Arencibia - C
(L) Travis Snider - LF/DH

Bench

Edwin Encarnacion 1B/3B/LF/DH
Rajai Davis LF/RF/CF
Jeff Mathis C/1B/DH
Omar Visquel 2B/SS/3B

Starting Rotation

(L) Ricky Romero
(R) Brandon Morrow
(L) Brett Cecil
(R) Henderson Alvarez
(R) Dustin McGowan

(R) Kyle Drabek (First one called up in case of injury, or bad performance)

Bullpen

(R) Sergio Santos - CL
(R) Casey Janssen - SU
(L) Darren Oliver - SU
(R) Jason Frasor - MR
(R) Francisco Cordero - MR
(R) Joel Carreno - LR
(R) Carlos Villanueva - LR

fatkev78
01-28-2012, 07:25 PM
OP: Arencibia's going to be exhausted ;)

PJ Awesome
01-28-2012, 07:38 PM
Lol yup I just realized I forgot Mathis...^

WhatSayYou
01-28-2012, 07:45 PM
Yunel Escobar (SS)
Colby Rasmus (CF)
Brett Lawrie (3b)
Jose Bautista (RF)
Adam Lind (1B)
Edwin Encarnacion (DH)
Kelly Johnson (2B)
Travis Snider (LF)
J.P. Arrencibia (C)

Bench:
Davis
Mccoy
Mathis
Fransisco

Rotation:
Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
Drabek

BP:
Santos
Cordero
Oliver
Jannsen
Fraser
Villueneva
Carreno

WestBucsFan
01-28-2012, 08:53 PM
Here I go...

1. Escobar SS
2. Rasmus CF
3. Lawrie 3B
4. Bautista RF
5. Lind 1B
6. JPA C
7. EE DH
8. Johnson 2B
9. Snider Lf

Bench
Francisco- OF
Mathis C
Vizquel SS/2B
Thames LF/RF

Rotation
1. Romero
2. Morrow
3. Cecil
4. Alvarez
5. Drabek

BP
Santos
Cordero
Oliver
Jannsen
Fraser
Vilueneuva
McGowan

I think McGowan will eventually move to the bullpen and I think Davis will be dealt before the season starts. I also think JPA will build on last season and have a great offensive year. Also look out for a much improved Brett Cecil who has apparently been working out like a mad man to get ready for the season.

Farsight
01-28-2012, 10:00 PM
Starting Lineup

Yunel Escobar - SS
Colby Rasmus - CF
Kelly Johnson - 2B
Jose Bautista - RF
Brett Lawrie - 3B
Adam Lind - 1B
Edwin Encarnacion - DH/3B/1B/LF
J.P. Arencibia - C
Travis Snider - LF/DH



Bench

Eric Thames - LF/DH
Rajai Davis - LF/RF/CF
Jeff Mathis - C
Omar Visquel - 2B/SS/3B

Starting Rotation

Ricky Romero
Brandon Morrow
Dustin McGowan
Henderson Alvarez
kyle Drabek


Bullpen

Sergio Santos - CL
Casey Janssen - SU
Darren Oliver - SU
Jason Frasor - MR
Francisco Cordero - MR
Joel Carreno - LR
Carlos Villanueva - LR

Most of you are probably wondering were Cecil is. Honestly, id like to Cecil in our pen or as a 6th starter, incase anything happened to the others. Cecil for me projects as a back of the end starter or a bullpen arm. Hes nice to have, but i dont really see him in our rotation with are other pitching talent

jaysnraptors44
01-28-2012, 10:04 PM
Drabek > McGowan Imo .... Edwin Encarnacion is a wasted bat on the bench i think he can do pretty decent at full time DH maybe 260 avg and 20 -25 Hr

StealingSigns
01-28-2012, 10:07 PM
A few weeks back, John Farrell was on the Fan590. He stated Lawrie will be batting in the 6-7 position to start the season.

saskjaysfan
01-28-2012, 11:57 PM
Lineup:
SS Escobar
2B Johnson
RF Bautista
!b Lind
DH Encarnacion
CF Rasmus
3B Lawrie
LF Thames
C Arencibia

This lineup has nice righty lefty balance. and has reasonable OBP guys at the top of the order.

Bench:
Davis
Mathis
Fransisco
Vizquel

Rotation:
Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Alvarez
Mcgowan

Bullpen
Santos
Cordero
Oliver
Frasor
Janssen
Villanueva
Perez





Luis Perez is out of options and so he will be in the pen ahead of laffey and litsch. Carreno is going to be a starter in the minors and could be called up as either a starter or reliever midseason.
Mcgowan will be in the rotation but Cecil will get the nod as the 3rd starter.

500 Level
01-29-2012, 01:21 AM
SS- Escobar
2B -Johnson
RF - Bautista
DH - Encarncion
1B - Lind
3B -Lawrie
CF - Rasmus
C - Arencibia
LF - Thames

Bench
Davis
Snider
Vizquel
Mathis

Rotation
Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
McGowan

Bullpen
Santos
Cordero
Oliver
Jansen
Fraser
Perez
Villanueva

nithanyo
01-29-2012, 03:33 AM
I really really don't wanna see Cecil in the rotation.

DeRozan10
01-29-2012, 05:08 AM
I really really don't wanna see Cecil in the rotation.

Neither but its worth giving him a shot. If he's no good after 10 send him to the bullpen. His rope should be nowhere near what Jo Jo Reyes had last year. Especially with the depth the Jays have in the rotation

Seven Rhymes
01-29-2012, 12:12 PM
I believe the hitting side of things is pretty much set. Only battle will be in left field where I predict the Jays will give up on Snider more than Thames wins the job outright. Wouldn't be surprised to see Davis get platoon action in left field and hit 9th. Snider will have a promising year on another MLB roster.

On the pitching front, I think everyone, including the Jays wants to see McGowan win the 5th spot, so barring a spring training injury, I think he'll be given that. Can he hold on to it, we'll see. I figure we'll see Drabek in that spot by mid June. I also think the Jays want to believe in Cecil, but ultimately he's moved to the pen by the trade deadline and then fills Oliver's role when he's dealt to a contender. Expect Alvarez to get demoted mid season for a short stint to work on another pitch when MLB hitters start figuring him out.


Starting Lineup

(R) Yunel Escobar - SS
(L) Kelly Johnson - 2B
(R) Jose Bautista - RF
(L) Adam Lind - 1B
(R) Brett Lawrie - 3B
(L) Colby Rasmus - CF
(R) Edwin Encarnacion -DH
(R) J.P. Arencibia - C
(L) Eric Thames - LF

Bench

Rajai Davis UOF
Jeff Mathis C
Omar Vizquel UIF
Ben Francisco UOF

Starting Rotation

(L) Ricky Romero
(R) Brandon Morrow
(L) Brett Cecil -(to bullpen by end of year)
(R) Henderson Alvarez
(R) Dustin McGowan (replaced by Drabek in June)


Bullpen

(R) Sergio Santos - 9th
(R) Francisco Cordero - 8th
(L) Darren Oliver - 8th
(R) Casey Janssen - 7th
(R) Jason Frasor - 6th
(L) Luis Perez - second lefty
(R) Carlos Villanueva - long relief

scotttube
01-31-2012, 11:57 PM
2b Johnson
ss Escobar
cf Rasmus
rf Bautista
1b Lind
dh Encarnacion
3b Lawrie
lf Thames
c Arencibia

of Davis
of Francisco
if Vizquel
c Mathis

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
McGowan

Santos
Cordero
Janssen
Frasor
Oliver
Perez
Villanueva

heusy_79
02-01-2012, 01:56 AM
SS Escobar
CF Rasmus
RF Bautista
3B Lawrie
1B Lind
2B Johnson
DH Thames
C Arencibia
LF Snider

Mathis, Davis, Francisco, Vizquel

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Drabek
McGuire

Santos
Cordero
Oliver
Frasor
Janssen
Cecil
Villanueva

AA09-?
02-01-2012, 12:13 PM
SS Escobar
CF Rasmus
RF Bautista
3B Lawrie
1B Lind
2B Johnson
DH Thames
C Arencibia
LF Snider

Mathis, Davis, Francisco, Vizquel

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Drabek
McGuire

Santos
Cordero
Oliver
Frasor
Janssen
Cecil
Villanueva

I take it you feel McGowan should be let go?

JaysHabs
02-01-2012, 12:24 PM
Escobar
Snider
Lawrie
Bautista
Lind
EE
KJ
JPA
Rasmus

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
McGowan

Villanueva
Oliver
Perez
Janssen
Frasor
Cordero
Santos

Mathis
Davis
Valbuena
McCoy

Go Jays

JaysHabs
02-01-2012, 12:28 PM
First callups Thames, Drabek, Carreno, Hutchinson (?), Cooper
September callups Gose, McGuire, Hech

Dont care for Litsch one bit.

heusy_79
02-01-2012, 03:20 PM
I take it you feel McGowan should be let go?

Not necessarily, I just feel that if guys like Alvarez, Mcguire and Drabek prove ready in ST they will be given the shot to start first. McGowan is still very much a wild card when it comes to our pitching staff, he could be effective in many roles. I considered him over Cecil for the last bullpen spot but felt a 2nd lefty was necessary, and he could also easily displace Villanueva.

GrumpyOldMan
02-02-2012, 09:16 AM
There are a couple of positions that can be fought for in spring training (left field, and back of the rotation starters). Besides that we all pretty much agree on the lineup for the most part. Our offence wasn't the problem last season (6th most runs in MLB). Our pitching our biggest problem (6th worst in MLB). Hopefully 2 of Drabek, McGowan and Cecil step up and earn a spot. The bullpen looks good. I'm really looking forward to the season.

AA09-?
02-02-2012, 05:16 PM
Not necessarily, I just feel that if guys like Alvarez, Mcguire and Drabek prove ready in ST they will be given the shot to start first. McGowan is still very much a wild card when it comes to our pitching staff, he could be effective in many roles. I considered him over Cecil for the last bullpen spot but felt a 2nd lefty was necessary, and he could also easily displace Villanueva.

I agree with the 1st part, but as far as Cecil I think he'll pretty much be a lock for the rotation, based on recent reports of his improved velocity/conditioning. I'm starting to feel like it's going to be increasingly difficult for the Jays to hold onto McGowan. He'll have to pitch much better than he did in September to be in the rotation and I highly doubt they're in favour of putting him in an overly crowded BP.

2009mvp
02-02-2012, 05:48 PM
Who's said anything about Cecil's velocity? Yeah he's reportedly in better shape (then again, who isn't in February?) but no one will know how that translates to his velocity until at least another month.

Sanyo
02-02-2012, 05:53 PM
Jays are coming into spring training with more choices which is always good:

Romero, Morrow are locks. Alvarez based on last year should be but I'd like to see how he does in spring training but assuming he stays.

Then you have your choice of Cecil, McGowan, Drabek, McGuire, Hutch, even Jenkins. Lot more options for the back end than last year so I have a feeling the back end should be a little more stable this year based on being able to choose from a larger group of candidates for the rotation...last year the Jays hope rested on Jo Jo Reyes!

AA09-?
02-02-2012, 05:56 PM
Who's said anything about Cecil's velocity? Yeah he's reportedly in better shape (then again, who isn't in February?) but no one will know how that translates to his velocity until at least another month.

I seem to remember it being mentioned in a thread a while back that his velocity was up, maybe I'm wrong.

LindyHop
02-03-2012, 11:43 AM
VS RHP

R Escobar SS -- .358 OBP/.740 OPS vs RHP in 2011
L Johnson 2B -- .371 OBP/.825 OPS vs RHP in 2010*
L Rasmus CF -- .365 OBP/.875 OPS vs RHP in 2010*
R Bautista RF -- .589 SLG/1.025 OPS vs RHP in 2011
R Lawrie 3B -- .642 SLG/1.022 OPS vs RHP in 2011
L Lind 1B -- .468 SLG/.771 OPS vs RHP in 2011
R Encarnacion DH -- .436 SLG/.767 OPS vs RHP in 2011
L Snider LF -- .473 SLG/.783 OPS vs RHP in 2010*
R Arencibia C -- .409 SLG/.682 OPS vs RHP in 2011

VS LHP

R Escobar SS -- .408 OBP/.929 OPS vs LHP in 2011
L Johnson 2B -- .366 OBP/.953 OPS vs LHP in 2010*
L Rasmus CF -- .349 OBP/.810 OPS vs LHP in 2010*
R Bautista RF/DH -- .672 SLG/1.156 OPS vs LHP in 2011
R Lawrie 3B -- .432 SLG/.786 OPS vs LHP in 2011
R Encarnacion 1B -- .504 SLG/.845 OPS vs LHP in 2011
R Arencibia C -- .528 SLG/.838 OPS vs LHP in 2011
L Snider DH/RF -- .424 SLG/.702 OPS vs LHP in 2010*
R Davis LF -- .367 OBP/.829 OPS vs LHP in 2011

*Obviously these line-ups are premised on the hope that Johnson, Rasmus, and Snider (though I mostly want to insert a ‘?’ for Snider instead of including any stats whatsoever from his partial seasons) are capable of repeating their 2010 numbers, which remains to be seen.

BENCH

Davis
Francisco
Mathis
Valbuena

ROTATION

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil**
McGowan**

**Drabek called up if either Cecil or McGowan struggles.

BULLPEN

Santos (CL)
Cordero
Oliver
Janssen
Frasor
Perez
Villaneuva

LindyHop
02-03-2012, 03:25 PM
I think the Jays would be better served by batting Bautista 4th instead of 3rd. In 2011, he hit 27 solo HR! By putting three higher OBP guys in front of him, the odds are obviously higher that some of those solo HRs would be converted into 2-run shots with 2 outs--or, God forbid, even a 3-run shot or grand slam here and there! The downside, of course, is fewer ABs, but I think the extra runs would make up for that.

An interesting article on batting line-up composition:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Sanyo
02-03-2012, 03:29 PM
I think the Jays would be better served by batting Bautista 4th instead of 3rd. In 2011, he hit 27 solo HR! By putting three higher OBP guys in front of him, the odds are obviously higher that some of those solo HRs would be converted into 2-run shots with 2 outs--or, God forbid, even a 3-run shot or grand slam here and there! The downside, of course, is fewer ABs, but I think the extra runs would make up for that.

An interesting article on batting line-up composition:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

They want a guarantee with Bautista batting in the first inning with Escobar an on base machine which is why he's 3rd. I would move Bautista to 4th only if Lawrie emerges this year and you could put him ahead of Bautista to take pressure off Lawrie, though I project Lawrie will be no slouch himself and will likely hit 30-35 hrs himself...I can already envision a breaking ball being crushed by Lawrie onto the Hard Rock Cafe windows...

LindyHop
02-03-2012, 03:47 PM
"The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of."
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

LindyHop
02-03-2012, 04:06 PM
They want a guarantee with Bautista batting in the first inning with Escobar an on base machine which is why he's 3rd. I would move Bautista to 4th only if Lawrie emerges this year and you could put him ahead of Bautista to take pressure off Lawrie, though I project Lawrie will be no slouch himself and will likely hit 30-35 hrs himself...I can already envision a breaking ball being crushed by Lawrie onto the Hard Rock Cafe windows...

But assuming you don't bat obvious double-play candidates 2 and 3, Escobar would often still be on base for Bautista even when batters 2 and 3 create outs, right? It doesn't really matter if Bautista is batting with one out or two, does it?

It seems to me that if you bat three high OBP guys before Bautista (though obviously finding high OBP guys on the Jays' roster is somewhat of a challenge), then you simply increase the probability that at least one of those players is on base when Bautista comes to the plate.

bluenoserINsd
02-03-2012, 04:26 PM
Our starting 5 is shakey at best. I'd say Romero, Morrow and Alvarez are the only locks in the rotation. Sure you can say that Cecil and McGowan are locks as well... but let's be honest- I bet at least 1 of them will be injured or shouldn't be a starter a month into the season. Assuming worst case scenario of not being able to use Cecil or McGowan, who do we go to? Drabek/Litsch, and another guy in the majors too early? Or we might have to make an early season trade...

scottythegreat1
02-03-2012, 05:29 PM
Escobar - SS
Thames - LF
Bautista - RF
Lind - 1B
E5 - DH
Lawrie - 3B
Johnson - 2B
Rasmus - CF
JPA - C

Bench:
Mathis - C
Francisco - OF
Davis - OF
Vizquel - IF

Rotation:
Romero
Morrow
McGowan
Cecil/Drabek
Alvarez

Bullpen:
Santos
Cordero
Frasor
Jannsen
Oliver
Villenueva
Litsch

That is the opening day Roster....however Im sure things will change as the season goes on. I know E5 is batting 5th, but I wouldnt hesitate to put Lawrie there after Lawrie gets his feet wet a bit more....so let them trade spots. I know a lot of people have put Thames in the 8th hole, however I noticed that he did very well batting second last year...so lets keep him there.

Cecil/Drabek/Alvarez is 3 guys fighting for 2 spots.....but that doesnt mean that Villenueva or Litsch takes those spots if they have a good Spring and the other three dont or 1 goes well. Maybe McGowan doesnt do well either, or gets injured again.....Theres just a lot of question marks on that rotation after Romero and Morrow.

The Bullpen is pretty much set and defined this year, which is a better proposition than last year with FF on the DL and Rauch taking over....and Rauch not doing well, etc; Santos should be closing out...but that doesnt mean that Cordero will get the odd save situation if Santos is log in a lot of time in a short period of time.

In regards to the bench....I see Davis as the ultimate pinch runner near the end of the game....bring him out to run and steal a few bases. Vizquel is certainly going to make the team...Id rather have him than McCoy. I still dont get the purpose of Ben Francisco on the team, but I dont make the rules up. I hope we dont have to use Mathis too often, he is better to have in the game if we are blowing away the other team.

LindyHop
02-03-2012, 06:07 PM
"The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of."
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Bautista 2011
HR bases empty – 27
HR 1 man on – 13
HR 2 men on – 3
HR 3 men on – 0

Batting Bautista 3rd = so many wasted run-scoring opportunities!

The following source argues that the use of optimized lineups (which no MLB club does) would translate into roughly one additional win per season: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/4/14/2110082/why-dont-sabermetric-gms-have-sabermetric-managers-and-shouldnt-they

-----------------------------------------------------
What could a sabermetric manager do?

1. Use optimized lineups:

1 One of the three best hitters (high OBP)
2 One of the three best hitters
3 5th best hitter
4 One of the three best hitters (high SLG)
5 4th best hitter
6 6th best hitter
7 7th best hitter
8 8th best hitter (or pitcher if NL)
9 9th best hitter (8th best hitter if NL)

It is generally recognized that the optimized lineup over a full season would score five to fifteen runs more than the standard lineup. So we’re very roughly talking about one win. Now one win might not seem like a lot, but as Matt Klaassen’s excellent recent article pointed out, one win is often difference between a good player and a bad player. It can also mean the difference between making it to the playoffs or not. It’s worth about $5 million on the free agent market. In short, should major league teams be turning their back on a win?

But that’s exactly what every major league manager does. No MLB team uses an optimized lineup or anything close to it. Sure occasionally some manager will bat the pitcher 8th or use a slow, high-OBP player as the leadoff hitter. But other than these small tweaks, managers do their very best to fit their players into the traditional batting order profile. Why? Because that’s the way it’s always been done, and therefore it must work best that way. They are not interested in studies that show that it doesn’t work best that way. Everybody knows that’s the ways to construct a lineup.

town123
02-03-2012, 07:18 PM
1. Escobar
2. Johnson
3. Jose
4. Carnation Milk
5. Snider
6. Lawrie
7. Cooper
8. JPA
9. Rasmus

BJBirdy
02-06-2012, 08:36 PM
I have zero idea what the batting order will be, but here's my predictions for the Opening Day roster:

C - Arencibia
1B - Lind
2B - Johnson
3B - Lawrie
SS - Escobar
LF - Davis
CF - Rasmus
RF - Bautista
DH - Encarnacion

Bench:
Mathis - C
McCoy - IF
Vizquel - IF (but I hope not)
Thames - OF

Rotation:
Romero - L
Morrow - R
Cecil - L
Alvarez - R
McGowan or Drabek - R

Bullpen:
Santos - R
Cordero - R
Frasor - R
Janssen - R
Villaneuva - R
Oliver - L
Laffey - L


Unfortunately, I just cannot see Snider making the team out of spring training, but I hope I'm wrong about him.

StealingSigns
02-07-2012, 03:19 AM
Who's said anything about Cecil's velocity? Yeah he's reportedly in better shape (then again, who isn't in February?) but no one will know how that translates to his velocity until at least another month.

Haha, I have a couple of friends who I go out drinking with in July and August each year, share a few baskets of chicken wings with, and while I don't need to worry about being in shape, they most certainly do. I always laugh when their perspective NHL teams' beat reporters proclaim they have all of a sudden embraced fitness during the offseason, when it is clear they have not :laugh2: Does the golf course count as dry land training? Really??

wamco
02-07-2012, 05:12 PM
odds came out today for world series winner

ny 6:1
bost 8:1
Tor 40:1

StealingSigns
02-07-2012, 09:33 PM
odds came out today for world series winner

ny 6:1
bost 8:1
Tor 40:1

Never tell me the odds. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKsVVmOGV9I)

The evil empire doesn't always win :D

Cabby
02-11-2012, 08:52 PM
This is probably not an official video, but it is well done either way!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0CLzC3RvW8

wamco
02-12-2012, 02:06 PM
mlb.com ops predictions:

jpa 722
lind 780
kj 809
lawrie 812
escobar 753
joey 986
rasmus 772
thames 758/snider 717
ee 776

Comes out to about a 794 ops which would be tex/yanks level last season. they scored about 110 more runs than us last year at that level. Not sure where that puts us pythagorically.

Farsight
02-12-2012, 02:51 PM
Bautista 2011
HR bases empty – 27
HR 1 man on – 13
HR 2 men on – 3
HR 3 men on – 0

Batting Bautista 3rd = so many wasted run-scoring opportunities!

The following source argues that the use of optimized lineups (which no MLB club does) would translate into roughly one additional win per season: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/4/14/2110082/why-dont-sabermetric-gms-have-sabermetric-managers-and-shouldnt-they

-----------------------------------------------------
What could a sabermetric manager do?

1. Use optimized lineups:

1 One of the three best hitters (high OBP)
2 One of the three best hitters
3 5th best hitter
4 One of the three best hitters (high SLG)
5 4th best hitter
6 6th best hitter
7 7th best hitter
8 8th best hitter (or pitcher if NL)
9 9th best hitter (8th best hitter if NL)

It is generally recognized that the optimized lineup over a full season would score five to fifteen runs more than the standard lineup. So we’re very roughly talking about one win. Now one win might not seem like a lot, but as Matt Klaassen’s excellent recent article pointed out, one win is often difference between a good player and a bad player. It can also mean the difference between making it to the playoffs or not. It’s worth about $5 million on the free agent market. In short, should major league teams be turning their back on a win?

But that’s exactly what every major league manager does. No MLB team uses an optimized lineup or anything close to it. Sure occasionally some manager will bat the pitcher 8th or use a slow, high-OBP player as the leadoff hitter. But other than these small tweaks, managers do their very best to fit their players into the traditional batting order profile. Why? Because that’s the way it’s always been done, and therefore it must work best that way. They are not interested in studies that show that it doesn’t work best that way. Everybody knows that’s the ways to construct a lineup.
Completely agree, ive been saying this for awhile. Good post

craigerlee
02-12-2012, 03:04 PM
Bautista 2011
HR bases empty – 27
HR 1 man on – 13
HR 2 men on – 3
HR 3 men on – 0

Batting Bautista 3rd = so many wasted run-scoring opportunities!

The following source argues that the use of optimized lineups (which no MLB club does) would translate into roughly one additional win per season: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/4/14/2110082/why-dont-sabermetric-gms-have-sabermetric-managers-and-shouldnt-they

-----------------------------------------------------
What could a sabermetric manager do?

1. Use optimized lineups:

1 One of the three best hitters (high OBP)
2 One of the three best hitters
3 5th best hitter
4 One of the three best hitters (high SLG)
5 4th best hitter
6 6th best hitter
7 7th best hitter
8 8th best hitter (or pitcher if NL)
9 9th best hitter (8th best hitter if NL)

It is generally recognized that the optimized lineup over a full season would score five to fifteen runs more than the standard lineup. So we’re very roughly talking about one win. Now one win might not seem like a lot, but as Matt Klaassen’s excellent recent article pointed out, one win is often difference between a good player and a bad player. It can also mean the difference between making it to the playoffs or not. It’s worth about $5 million on the free agent market. In short, should major league teams be turning their back on a win?

But that’s exactly what every major league manager does. No MLB team uses an optimized lineup or anything close to it. Sure occasionally some manager will bat the pitcher 8th or use a slow, high-OBP player as the leadoff hitter. But other than these small tweaks, managers do their very best to fit their players into the traditional batting order profile. Why? Because that’s the way it’s always been done, and therefore it must work best that way. They are not interested in studies that show that it doesn’t work best that way. Everybody knows that’s the ways to construct a lineup.

I really don't think batting Jose 3rd was the main problem, I think the biggest problem was who we batted 2nd and 4th. Patterson and Thames together struggled to get on base more than 30% of the time, so batting auto outs in front of Jose obviously kills his chance to drive in runs. Lind for the most part was an easy out batting behind Bautista, so no team had incentive to pitch to Jose. I think if you move Kelly Johnson into the 2 hole, Thames/Snider into the 9 hole and Lawrie into the 4 hole Bautista will be a lot more productive cause Thames/Snider is huge improvement in regards to getting on base compared to Arencibia and Kelly Johnson a huge improvement over Thames/Patterson at getting on in the two hole and Lawrie is better protection than Lind.

I think this would my lineup:
1. Escobar
2. Johnson
3. Bautista
4. Lawrie
5. Lind
6. Encarnacion
7. Rasmus
8. Arencibia
9. Thames/Snider

I'd switch Rasmus and Lind around depending who's hitting better.

LechWalesa
02-12-2012, 03:09 PM
Line-up:
(SS) Escobar
(2B) Johnson
(RF) Bautista
(1B) EE
(3B) Lawrie
(DH) Thames
(CF) Rasmus
(LF) Snider
(C) JPA

Bench:
Lind
Vizquel
Mathis
Davis

Rotation:
Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Cecil
McGowan

BP:
Santos
Cordero
Janssen
Oliver
Perez
Frasor
Villanueva

I doubt this is the line-up, but that's how I'd do it. Granted, I also thought Bautista was a waste of a roster spot at one point, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

BJBirdy
02-12-2012, 09:41 PM
I doubt this is the line-up, but that's how I'd do it. Granted, I also thought Bautista was a waste of a roster spot at one point, so take my opinion with a grain of salt.

For what it's worth, when the Jays dealt for Bautista I was actually pissed off that they traded away Robinson Diaz! :facepalm:

bljay29
02-12-2012, 10:29 PM
For what it's worth, when the Jays dealt for Bautista I was actually pissed off that they traded away Robinson Diaz! :facepalm:


What you didn't see Bautista as a 50+ hr guy?? LOL... Nobody saw what he was gonna become, I highly doubt even the Jay's seen this coming.. Even during his 54hr season I thought the Jays should have traded him for some high prospects cause I thought it was just a career year.. Shows what I know lol

2009mvp
02-12-2012, 10:45 PM
mlb.com ops predictions:

jpa 722
lind 780
kj 809
lawrie 812
escobar 753
joey 986
rasmus 772
thames 758/snider 717
ee 776

Comes out to about a 794 ops which would be tex/yanks level last season. they scored about 110 more runs than us last year at that level. Not sure where that puts us pythagorically.

I'd bet the Jays of the past few years have had comparable OPS numbers to some of the big dogs, unfortunately too much of that is slugging and not enough of it OBP.