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DenButsu
12-23-2011, 10:41 AM
Saw someone did this for the East, so here's the West version. Insider, so I've only quoted short excerpts (also reordered from "first to worst").


Western Conference, worst to first
Compressed schedule, newfound fiscal austerity will shape competitive conference race

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (45-21)
the Thunder have talent galore and are my favorite to win the West. They have a pristine cap situation, arguably the league's best general manager in Sam Presti, and an enviable home-court advantage they'll likely have for three straight playoff series. But I still think they need more shooting and a bit more defense to take the final step.

2. Denver Nuggets (43-23)
in the big picture, everybody is sleeping on this team. With overwhelming depth, two potential breakout players in Lawson and Gallinari, and tons of trade assets, the Nuggets are in fantastic shape.

3. San Antonio Spurs (42-24)
"Hey, remember us? We won more games than any team in the conference last season and lost in the playoffs partly because our best player was hurt. Feel free to ignore us until mid-April like you do every season, we'll just be quietly accumulating victories while generating as little hype as possible."

4. Los Angeles Clippers (41-25)
Add it all up and the Clippers will be really good, because you almost have to be with Paul and Griffin together. But their upside is limited by the lack of depth and defenders, and I'm not sure they have the organizational strength to overcome that.

5. Los Angeles Lakers (40-26)
the schedule is going to be murder on this team more than on any other -- the key players are all old guys with the exception of Bynum, who has bad knees, and McRoberts. Plus, the bench isn't giving them squat. They'll make the playoffs, and if they manage the minutes and injuries well, they might even win a round once they get there. But they stopped being serious contenders the second they executed the Odom trade.

6. Dallas Mavericks (39-27)
a no-brainer playoff team, and along the way, coach Rick Carlisle will steal a few games his team had no business winning. But in the big picture, they're taking a rain check on this season and defending their title in 2013.

7. Portland Trail Blazers (38-28)
you're looking at a standard one-and-done playoff outfit. Though they should win more than they lose, the Blazers can't match up for seven games against elite frontcourts or A-list perimeter stars. But keep an eye on this team going forward. They have Aldridge as a centerpiece and several good young perimeter players, along with $20 million in cap space after the season.

8. Memphis Grizzlies (37-29)
one of the best starting fives in basketball. Alas, the bench is another matter. Just a couple of days ago I had the Grizzlies landing in fourth, and I thought they had a chance to do big things in the playoffs if they stayed healthy. The fact that I now have them eighth reflects two things: (1) Losing Darrell Arthur for probably the entire season is a harsh blow, and (2) the contenders are tightly packed. For the Western contenders, every game is going to matter.

9. Houston Rockets (32-34)

10. Minnesota Timberwolves (29-37)

11. Utah Jazz (27-39)

12. Golden State Warriors (26-40)

13. Sacramento Kings (25-41)

14. Phoenix Suns (24-42)

15. New Orleans Hornets (22-44)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2011/story?page=WestForecast&_slug_=nba-western-conference-projected-standings&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fpreview2011%2fstory%3fpage%3dWestForecast%26_sl ug_%3dnba-western-conference-projected-standings

jimbobjarree
12-23-2011, 10:49 AM
yeah I think theres gunna be a clear divide between playoff teams and lottery teams in the West. Shouldn't be any sort of race for 8th seed again.

Mr_Amaziing
12-23-2011, 11:07 AM
Denver at #2???

I'll honestly see The Warriors making the playoffs instead of Denver

Dolfan305
12-23-2011, 11:10 AM
What is wrong with this guy? Denver at #2?? What? I'm willing to bet that they won't even make the playoffs

DenButsu
12-23-2011, 11:11 AM
Denver at #2???

I'll honestly see The Warriors making the playoffs instead of Denver

What do you see as Denver's weakness(es)?

nycericanguy
12-23-2011, 11:29 AM
I have DEN as about the 6th best team out west, but being that this season depth might be more important I don't think its impossible for them to make it to #2.

I wonder how much the loss of Kmart, Chandler & JR is going to hurt though. But they did add Rudy, Brewer and they have 2 rookies that could play a role.

And Gallo is my favorite player in the NBA, but Holinger trashed him repeatedly as a "one trick role player pony" when he was in NY, now he's a breakout player candidate. :rolleyes:

Ill21
12-23-2011, 11:32 AM
What do you see as Denver's weakness(es)?

Not having J.R or Wilson, also having to rely on Gallo as your go to scorer. I like Denver's pieces a lot but i dont think they have that go to scorer like they did with Melo.

mightybosstone
12-23-2011, 11:35 AM
I think Denver will certainly fight for a playoff spot, but No. 2 is way too high. They're definitely deep, but I don't necessarily think the signings of Brewer and Fernandez make up for losing Martin, Smith and Chandler. Also, aren't they currently starting Al Harrington at PF? That's a disaster waiting to happen defensively and that'll be one of the worst rebounding front courts in basketball. I also just don't see a go-to scorer on that team. Lawson and Gallinari would be solid No. 2 or No. 3 scorers, but I'm not buying them as a No. 1 option.

And I think Hollinger is really counting out my Rockets. They've got a new coaching staff, sure, but the addition of Dalembert and the development on their young players (especially Lowry) makes them a playoff team, IMO.

d nuggets fan
12-23-2011, 11:37 AM
I keeping hearing how Kenyon & JR are gonna hurt with the loss. The vast majority of peeps in Denver were done with JR's lack of consistency, and has a great replacement - many feel superior in Fernandez. Kenyon's D will be missed for sure, but I don't think anyone saw him coming back to Denver and we have a surplus of Bigs on the team.

Wilson Chandler is a RFA and Denver may well see a fresh pair of legs for a play-off push with Wilson, or considerable assets when the decision of his contract is made. Let's just say we are saving a spot and money for his potential. There is not likely to be cap money left with many teams in that time period - huh?

Denver is a deep deep threat this year.

d nuggets fan
12-23-2011, 11:41 AM
I keep hearing Al "Buckets" is starting at PF - He likely actually the third option for the team at PF - Nene is starting at the 4 with Mozgov at the 5. Nene natural and preferred position is PF. So our average front line 3-4-5 in height is 6'11"

latinofire21
12-23-2011, 11:46 AM
I keep hearing Al "Buckets" is starting at PF - He likely actually the third option for the team at PF - Nene is starting at the 4 with Mozgov at the 5. Nene natural and preferred position is PF. So our average front line 3-4-5 in height is 6'11"

Nuggets arent a 2 seed. Your sipping on the koolaid if you believe that.

d nuggets fan
12-23-2011, 11:53 AM
I didn't create the projections - just clearing up misinformation - honestly without a go to scorer like OKC or MAV or Lakers the playoffs - which Denver will definetly make - will probably be short lived.

Cheers latinofire

HOZ THE KNICK
12-23-2011, 11:59 AM
i stop reading when they put dallas at 6

latinofire21
12-23-2011, 11:59 AM
I didn't create the projections - just clearing up misinformation - honestly without a go to scorer like OKC or MAV or Lakers the playoffs - which Denver will definetly make - will probably be short lived.

Cheers latinofire

Quoted the wrong person when I asked that question. The quote was actually for denbetsu.

I agree they will make the playoffs but I think it will be a 6 or 7 seed. There are too many teams that have upgraded to warrant moving the nuggets up 4 seeds for losing JR Smith, Kenyon Martin, and Wilson Chandler, only to refill with Brewer and Fernandez.

latinofire21
12-23-2011, 12:12 PM
i stop reading when they put dallas at 6

Denver at 2?
Spurs at 3?
Mavs at 6?
Grizzlies at 8?

lol hahahahahaha

Then in the east he puts

Knicks at 7 - finishing worst then they did last year with more talent lol.

This guy seriously put a dartboard up and picked his lineup that way. He does this for views i pressume so the more idiotic to make the list the more controversy there is in his discussions.

ESPN - TMZ

mightybosstone
12-23-2011, 12:18 PM
I will say this much about the Western Conference, when you look at how tight it was last season, it wouldn't shock me to see a team slip into the top 4 that none of us will see coming. After the Thunder, the talent is fairly evenly distributed in the West and there are some really solid teams (Denver, Portland, Houston, Memphis) at the bottom of the playoff picture that could crack the top four in a shortened season if they get hot at the right time. The lockout shortened season in 99 was totally unpredictable, and I think the Western Conference is where we could say that this year.

D Roses Bulls
12-23-2011, 12:20 PM
I think this might get closed because you linked insider.

anyways, oh mr. hollinger, you always find ways to make me laugh in disbelief. He puts the defending champs at 6? need I say more?

DenButsu
12-23-2011, 01:18 PM
Quoted the wrong person when I asked that question. The quote was actually for denbetsu.

I agree they will make the playoffs but I think it will be a 6 or 7 seed. There are too many teams that have upgraded to warrant moving the nuggets up 4 seeds for losing JR Smith, Kenyon Martin, and Wilson Chandler, only to refill with Brewer and Fernandez.

Well, they're not my projections, either. I just posted what Hollinger predicted.

I think a 3/4/5 seed for the Nuggets is probably more realistic. But I definitely also think a lot of people are selling the Nuggets short.

As Hollinger points out, Denver's depth and high altitude should be extremely helpful in this condensed season, in which fatigue will probably be a major factor. We're seeing things like b2b2bs and 5-in-6ers that are just brutal, and not many teams go fully 12 deep. The Nuggets do.

Players who are expected to improve: Lawson, Gallo, Afflalo, Mozgov, Koufos... Rudy and Brewer are more dubious, since they've struggled in recent seasons, but if both or either finds a good groove in Denver, that's pretty much just bonus since the Nuggets basically grabbed them for nothing.

The Nuggets are gonna be tall, and fast. The starting frontcourt of Gallo/Nene/Moz has an average height of over 6'11", and the two forwards can get up and down the court really quickly for their size (Moz and Al, not so much, but Koufos, Bird and Faried can all run). The PG combo of Ty and Andre Miller is pretty much going to result in the Nuggets pushing the ball 48 minutes straight. This is going to make Denver a hard team to defend (despite lacking a top scorer), and also means that the infrastructure is there to put solid defensive schemes in play at the other end.

The go-to scorer who can create his own shots is definitely a legitimate absence (that's where we'll most miss JR), but the depth, speed, size, flexibility of lineups, etc. should go a long way in compensating for that.

It's definitely a very unconventional team in this era of the NBA, when every roster being helmed by at least one if not two stars/superstars is almost seen as a mandated prerequisite. Hollinger compared it to the 1999 Blazers in the last shortened season, and I'd offer the 2004 Pistons as well. So I can understand why a lot of people would glance at the roster, see no bright, shiny gems there and jump to the conclusion that therefore the team can't be anything special.

But there's more than one way to win. I'll be surprised if the Nuggets don't have HCA in at least the first round of the playoffs, assuming a mostly healthy roster for the majority of the season.

thephoenixson28
12-23-2011, 01:38 PM
Suns at 14

shep33
12-23-2011, 01:52 PM
Hollinger is an idiot

lakerboy
12-23-2011, 01:55 PM
What do you see as Denver's weakness(es)?

Talent.

No JR Smith, No Kenyon Martin.

astrosmaniac
12-23-2011, 02:07 PM
rockets under .500? this is the same team from last year, but subtract chuck hayes, and add morris, flynn, and dalembert. and we finished over .500 last year. thats just stupid

Baller1
12-23-2011, 02:14 PM
If Denver is the second best team in the West, then just chalk up the Thunder for the finals right now.

BrandoCommando
12-23-2011, 02:15 PM
i stop reading when they put dallas at 6

same here.

don'tfireNedCo
12-23-2011, 02:21 PM
all eyes are on the nuggs and nobody disputing clips at 4 above the lakers. loving this.
in before closed.

Iron24th
12-23-2011, 02:36 PM
Almost every seed seems wrong in his prediction.

Sota4Ever
12-23-2011, 02:42 PM
Rockets have fun with kevin mcfail

thekmp211
12-23-2011, 02:47 PM
any team starting al buckets and timmy the centerpiece mozgov is not a 2 seed. the nuggets are not as deep as they were last season. sorry hollinger.

Punk
12-23-2011, 03:05 PM
Denver at 2, Dallas at 6, Memphis at 8? :laugh:


See, If I was an admin or mod here, anything related to Hollinger would get deleted. He is a freaking clueless moron, who has never been right in anything he has ever said.

Chacarron
12-23-2011, 03:17 PM
I can see Dallas finishing 6th.

MacFitz92
12-23-2011, 03:27 PM
This is such a slap in the face to the Mavs.

kjoke
12-23-2011, 03:33 PM
I respect hollinger's opinion

GhostfaceDrilla
12-23-2011, 04:17 PM
Who won the 2010-2011 NBA Finals? Not the Dallas Mavericks....

Hollinger has always been the biggest Mavs hater on the planet.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Portland Trailblazers
4. Los Angeles Lakers
5. Memphis Grizzlies
6. Los Angeles Clippers
7. San Antonio Spurs
8. Denver Nuggets

Blazers have Felton, Matthews, Crawford, Wallace, Batum, Aldridge and Camby. Very good team and I think they will surprise.

I am gonna say it will be Thunder/Mavs in the WCF and it could go either way.
The winner of the WCF will beat the Miami Heat in the Finals.

waveycrockett
12-23-2011, 04:34 PM
Hollinger is just a major troll. There is no way around that.

Evolution23
12-23-2011, 05:08 PM
lol Dalas at 6 and Denver at 2. This guy is really turning into a joke of a reporter.

IBleedPurple
12-23-2011, 07:03 PM
any team starting al buckets and timmy the centerpiece mozgov is not a 2 seed. the nuggets are not as deep as they were last season. sorry hollinger.

As said already, Al is not starting.

Mozgov
Nene
Gallo
Afflalo
Lawson

waveycrockett
12-23-2011, 07:11 PM
As said already, Al is not starting.

Mozgov
Nene
Gallo
Afflalo
Lawson

That team still is not very good. They got by on crazy depth last yr and running other teams into the ground. They dont have that kind of athleticism anymore.

DenButsu
12-23-2011, 08:14 PM
That team still is not very good. They got by on crazy depth last yr and running other teams into the ground. They dont have that kind of athleticism anymore.

Uh, pretty much just as deep and athletic as last season...

----------------------------------------------

It's amusing to me how strong the hate is - with very few actual arguments justifying it.

I wish I could have posted the entire article. Obviously since it's Insider, I can't. But people who are saying things like "He hates the Mavs" obviously didn't read it. He has some very complimentary things to say about them, especially the offensive potential for mismatches with a Dirk/Odom frontcourt. The main reason Dallas, in his estimation, fell a few pegs was the loss of Chandler probably resulting (in his opinion) to the Mavs slipping into mediocrity on the defensive end.

Contrary to what seems to be popular opinion in this thread, he's really not just "using a dartboard" or being a "troll". He presents well-reasoned, detailed arguments for all his assertions (which generally can be found with some creative googling).

Now that doesn't mean he couldn't be wrong about any or all of it. He almost certainly is (that's the nature of making big, broad projections). And obviously it's great to dispute and debate predictions like this (that's pretty much the whole point of a message board, right?), but if you're gonna disagree, just throwing a "**** Hollinger, he's a moron" out there really doesn't make you look any better than you think he does. Back it up.

waveycrockett
12-23-2011, 08:20 PM
Uh, pretty much just as deep and athletic as last season...

----------------------------------------------

It's amusing to me how strong the hate is - with very few actual arguments justifying it.

I wish I could have posted the entire article. Obviously since it's Insider, I can't. But people who are saying things like "He hates the Mavs" obviously didn't read it. He has some very complimentary things to say about them, especially the offensive potential for mismatches with a Dirk/Odom frontcourt. The main reason Dallas, in his estimation, fell a few pegs was the loss of Chandler probably resulting (in his opinion) to the Mavs slipping into mediocrity on the defensive end.

Contrary to what seems to be popular opinion in this thread, he's really not just "using a dartboard" or being a "troll". He presents well-reasoned, detailed arguments for all his assertions (which generally can be found with some creative googling).

Now that doesn't mean he couldn't be wrong about any or all of it. He almost certainly is. And obviously it's great to dispute and debate predictions like this (that's pretty much the whole point of a message board, right?), but if you're gonna disagree, just throwing a "**** Hollinger, he's a moron" out there really doesn't make you look any better than you think he does. Back it up.

No not even close. Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, JR Smith and K-Mart are a million times more athletic than the guys that are replacing them. They were running teams ragged last year with shooters AND athletic play makers.

Miller is old as hell and cant hit a shot outside of a layup that was a horrible trade for Denver. Felton is wayyy better. Rudy is a nice player but he cant provide instant offense like JR Smith. Trash Smith all you want but DEN know that JR Smith was one of the main guys responsible for huge comebacks last yr. You guys have no one who replaces Wilson Chandler or K-Mart. And dont even bring up Kenneth Faried dude looks like the second coming of Renaldo Balkman.

beasted86
12-23-2011, 08:26 PM
That Nuggets roster is pretty weak defensively and on the boards. 0% chance they finish 2nd in the West.

IBleedPurple
12-23-2011, 08:28 PM
That team still is not very good. They got by on crazy depth last yr and running other teams into the ground. They dont have that kind of athleticism anymore.

I would say they have more athleticism than last year, but to each their own I guess.

waveycrockett
12-23-2011, 08:47 PM
I would say they have more athleticism than last year, but to each their own I guess.

Yeahhhhh righhhhhhhtttttttt Please show me the guys who are more athletic than Felton (one of the fastest guys in the league), JR Smith, Wilson Chandler and K-Mart. And please dont even mention Kenneth Faried. That dude is not ready to play more than 10 mins a game in this league.

justinnum1
12-23-2011, 08:48 PM
mavs to high

memphis ahead of dallas for sure

assisi805
12-23-2011, 08:50 PM
If curry stays healthy I can't see the Warriors not making the playoffs, Other then that Denver sticks out to me, I agree with the fact that they are young and deep two things that are essential in this shortened season but #2 is going a little over board especially with China housing half the nuggets team.

THE GIPPER
12-23-2011, 08:56 PM
Yeahhhhh righhhhhhhtttttttt Please show me the guys who are more athletic than Felton (one of the fastest guys in the league), JR Smith, Wilson Chandler and K-Mart. And please dont even mention Kenneth Faried. That dude is not ready to play more than 10 mins a game in this league.

These guys look pretty athletic to me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiM5RGY3QGM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47VLce11WDM

And what makes you think Faried cant play more than 10 mins? Always a spot for a guy who rebounds and plays D, and the fact that he's a freak athlete helps too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GV-nDD5CLCE

DenButsu
12-23-2011, 09:01 PM
No not even close. Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, JR Smith and K-Mart are a million times more athletic than the guys that are replacing them. They were running teams ragged last year with shooters AND athletic play makers.

Miller is old as hell and cant hit a shot outside of a layup that was a horrible trade for Denver. Felton is wayyy better. Rudy is a nice player but he cant provide instant offense like JR Smith. Trash Smith all you want but DEN know that JR Smith was one of the main guys responsible for huge comebacks last yr. You guys have no one who replaces Wilson Chandler or K-Mart. And dont even bring up Kenneth Faried dude looks like the second coming of Renaldo Balkman.

When the hell did I "trash Smith"? Go back an read my post, I said his ability to create his own shots would be missed by the Nuggets.

And that's true.

But all 3 of Lawson, Afflalo an Gallo are poised to become more potent scorers this season (they've all improved every season up till now, that curve should continue).

K-Mart added very little offensively; if anything he was a liability, as opponents could basically afford to play 5-on-4 defensively when he was on the floor.

Wilson Chandler made a much less impacting contribution to the Nuggets than he did to the Knicks last season, most llikely due to struggling with injury most of the time he was in Denver. Which is not to say I don't like his game. I'm looking forward to his return, and I'll be happy if the Nuggets can extend him. But he really wasn't a key part of Denver's post-Melo success. Gallo and Felton made a much bigger impact, by comparison.

I consider Miller and upgrade to Felton. Yeah, he's aging, but he can still push the pace. He has better court vision and passing accuracy. Last season his TS% was .531 to Felton's .499, so despite his inability to hit the 3, he is actually more efficient offensively. (In fact, a lot of that comes from Felton shooting the 3 too often for a .333 guy - Dre has better shot selection). Also, with how young Denver is now, bringing in a veteran leader will be good for the chemistry/locker room situation. Not to mention that Lawson's role as starting PG will continue expanding. I think Dre's an improvement, but at the very worst it's a lateral move.

As for athleticism... do the people saying the Nuggets aren't athletic now even know who's on the roster?

Evolution23
12-23-2011, 09:24 PM
When the hell did I "trash Smith"? Go back an read my post, I said his ability to create his own shots would be missed by the Nuggets.

And that's true.

But all 3 of Lawson, Afflalo an Gallo are poised to become more potent scorers this season (they've all improved every season up till now, that curve should continue).

K-Mart added very little offensively; if anything he was a liability, as opponents could basically afford to play 5-on-4 defensively when he was on the floor.

Wilson Chandler made a much less impacting contribution to the Nuggets than he did to the Knicks last season, most llikely due to struggling with injury most of the time he was in Denver. Which is not to say I don't like his game. I'm looking forward to his return, and I'll be happy if the Nuggets can extend him. But he really wasn't a key part of Denver's post-Melo success. Gallo and Felton made a much bigger impact, by comparison.

I consider Miller and upgrade to Felton. Yeah, he's aging, but he can still push the pace. He has better court vision and passing accuracy. Last season his TS% was .531 to Felton's .499, so despite his inability to hit the 3, he is actually more efficient offensively. (In fact, a lot of that comes from Felton shooting the 3 too often for a .333 guy - Dre has better shot selection). Also, with how young Denver is now, bringing in a veteran leader will be good for the chemistry/locker room situation. Not to mention that Lawson's role as starting PG will continue expanding. I think Dre's an improvement, but at the very worst it's a lateral move.

As for athleticism... do the people saying the Nuggets aren't athletic now even know who's on the roster?

So you really think the Nuggets will be the 2nd seed?

waveycrockett
12-23-2011, 09:27 PM
These guys look pretty athletic to me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiM5RGY3QGM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47VLce11WDM

And what makes you think Faried cant play more than 10 mins? Always a spot for a guy who rebounds and plays D, and the fact that he's a freak athlete helps too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GV-nDD5CLCE
You relyig on Corey Brewer to play more than 5 mins a game the Nuggets are worse than I thought. And I'm a huge fan of Rudy but he's not in the same class of athlete as JR Smith and showing me a 5 year old video isn't really helpng your cause. T-Mac still had hops back then.

Go_NUGGETS
12-23-2011, 09:43 PM
LMAO @ Kenyon martin being athletic...Whoever says that really doesnt know what they talking about. Kenyon is brute and defensive minded, but still playing on two knees that had microfracture surgery. Besides putback dunks, and good spin moves, he's definitely not gonna be missed for his athleticism--more of his defense is what will be missed.

And it makes me laugh how people count the nuggets out...We are as deep as last year. Regardless of "athleticism".

latinofire21
12-23-2011, 09:48 PM
LMAO @ Kenyon martin being athletic...Whoever says that really doesnt know what they talking about. Kenyon is brute and defensive minded, but still playing on two knees that had microfracture surgery. Besides putback dunks, and good spin moves, he's definitely not gonna be missed for his athleticism--more of his defense is what will be missed.

And it makes me laugh how people count the nuggets out...We are as deep as last year. Regardless of "athleticism".

I think its pretty easy to count the nuggets out. You have 3 main contributors whether you want to admit it or not stuck in china. You traded away Felton for Miller. Miller is a favorite of mine but hes older. This is a condensed season and your starting a russian project at the 5 to let NENE play at the 4. You picked up Fernandez and Brewer which are nice rotation players but they dont fill what you lose in Chandler and Smith and thats not even a close comparison. Just because you replace the players with athletic bodies doesnt warrant it to be considered deep. Has Brewer ever got more then a couple minutes a game? Your expecting him to play 20 a game and make up for Wilson Chandlers production?

Denbetsu says Affalo Gallinari and Lawson will get better production this year with Smith not there. I agree with that because I felt Smith was a chucker anyway, but I dont think Affalo Lawson Gallinari will be enough to make up for what you have lost in the offseason.

You cant possibly go into the season with the pressumption your as good as you were last year because that is just not a fair assessment. Mozgov isnt the GOAT and he hasnt proven to be a reliable starter in the NBA. Pegging him at the starting 5 and trying to convince others that Denver is just as deep as the veteran squad you had last year is a joke.

DenButsu
12-23-2011, 09:49 PM
So you really think the Nuggets will be the 2nd seed?

I said above that I didn't necessarily agree with Hollinger about that, and that 3/4/5 is probably more realistic.

I definitely think they'll be better than most in this thread seem to think. They're a team's team in a star driven league, so if there's not a flashy name on the marquee, they'll be written off by some corners. I'm actually glad to see them not getting much respect, though, because it should help to light a fire under their *** and motivate them to prove the doubters wrong.

And I do think they'll do that.

FWIW, Hollinger specifically stated in his breakdown that this Nuggets team was especially well designed to thrive in this specific (shortened, condensed) regular season, but that that wouldn't necessarily translate to postseason success.

latinofire21
12-23-2011, 09:58 PM
I said above that I didn't necessarily agree with Hollinger about that, and that 3/4/5 is probably more realistic.

I definitely think they'll be better than most in this thread seem to think. They're a team's team in a star driven league, so if there's not a flashy name on the marquee, they'll be written off by some corners. I'm actually glad to see them not getting much respect, though, because it should help to light a fire under their *** and motivate them to prove the doubters wrong.

And I do think they'll do that.

FWIW, Hollinger specifically stated in his breakdown that this Nuggets team was especially well designed to thrive in this specific (shortened, condensed) regular season, but that that wouldn't necessarily translate to postseason success.

Im not trying to kill the messanger when I rebuttle what you say but Hollinger is clearly overlooking the most essential piece in his analysis. Instead of comparing Depth hes comparing starting lineups plus signed "roster depth".

In this arguement you cant compare Gallinari Affalo and Lawson to fight the debate on the depth of the Nuggets. The relative arguement is between what you have lost compared to what you have gained.

Im not 100 percent sure on the total roster moves of the Nuggets but what I do know is this

Wilson Chandler in China
JR Smith in China
Kenyon Martin in China

Brewer in Denver
Fernandez in Denver
Rookies in Denver

If you think thats equal you must be high on your rookies because Brewer cant hold Chandlers jock strap and Fernandez is a poor mans JR smith.

Kakaroach
12-23-2011, 10:21 PM
Nice to see the Jazz not as low on Hollinger's PR as pretty much everyone else's.

His stats are pretty accurate though right?

Go_NUGGETS
12-23-2011, 10:24 PM
I think its pretty easy to count the nuggets out. You have 3 main contributors whether you want to admit it or not stuck in china. You traded away Felton for Miller. Miller is a favorite of mine but hes older. This is a condensed season and your starting a russian project at the 5 to let NENE play at the 4. You picked up Fernandez and Brewer which are nice rotation players but they dont fill what you lose in Chandler and Smith and thats not even a close comparison. Just because you replace the players with athletic bodies doesnt warrant it to be considered deep. Has Brewer ever got more then a couple minutes a game? Your expecting him to play 20 a game and make up for Wilson Chandlers production?

Denbetsu says Affalo Gallinari and Lawson will get better production this year with Smith not there. I agree with that because I felt Smith was a chucker anyway, but I dont think Affalo Lawson Gallinari will be enough to make up for what you have lost in the offseason.

You cant possibly go into the season with the pressumption your as good as you were last year because that is just not a fair assessment. Mozgov isnt the GOAT and he hasnt proven to be a reliable starter in the NBA. Pegging him at the starting 5 and trying to convince others that Denver is just as deep as the veteran squad you had last year is a joke.

The same way you attempting to extract "pressumption"s and "fair assessment" as terminology for your argument--it's ditto back to you...All this site consists of is "pressumptions" and un"fair assessment", because YOU, I, THEM dont know "absolutely" for sure whats going to happen...

You act Miller being older doesn't give him experience and a certain repertoire to see NBA games. Sure he can't shoot long range for ****, but him coming off the bench does not hurt the team. Whatever Felton could do better than Miller--wasnt consistent at the end of season, so that voids that talk. Miller can still work an offense.

We're starting a big body at the 5, so Nene can finally play his PF position, and give us size upfront...K-Mart was great defensively, he was a 6'9 PF who could irritate Gasol and Dirk to miss shots--But he couldn't rebound efficiently over those same players, and the size was weakness for us...So now we have a 7 foot russian and Nene in doing our front court, with a 6 foot 10 energetic Gallinari playing the 3...Koufus and Birdman coming off the bench, providing even more size on the front line.

Fernandez = J.R. Smith...Statistically it may not display, but in my own sense and opinion, he can do whatever J.R. can do...He has range from all over the court, and can do athletic moves like J.R....They both have the highlights. Anybody can make "pressumptions" on how good or bad Rudy will do in fittin the role in replacing, but I feel Rudy can provide the same type of spark J.R. would do with us--especially in our offense system.

The only player we didnt replace is Wilson Chandler, but between Harrington and Brewer, i'm sure we can get some kind of contribution from both of them, since they will both be 3rd string type of players.

And uhhh yeah latinofire dude...Brewer averaged well over 20 MPG with Minnesota, even 30 MPG at one time! 30 is more than a couple of minutes bruh.

Go_NUGGETS
12-23-2011, 10:25 PM
FWIW, Hollinger specifically stated in his breakdown that this Nuggets team was especially well designed to thrive in this specific (shortened, condensed) regular season, but that that wouldn't necessarily translate to postseason success.

Yaknow!? People thinking Hollinger predicted us to win the championship or something. LoL.

DenButsu
12-23-2011, 10:32 PM
Im not trying to kill the messanger when I rebuttle what you say but Hollinger is clearly overlooking the most essential piece in his analysis. Instead of comparing Depth hes comparing starting lineups plus signed "roster depth".

In this arguement you cant compare Gallinari Affalo and Lawson to fight the debate on the depth of the Nuggets. The relative arguement is between what you have lost compared to what you have gained.

Im not 100 percent sure on the total roster moves of the Nuggets but what I do know is this

Wilson Chandler in China
JR Smith in China
Kenyon Martin in China

Brewer in Denver
Fernandez in Denver
Rookies in Denver

If you think thats equal you must be high on your rookies because Brewer cant hold Chandlers jock strap and Fernandez is a poor mans JR smith.

Nobody, including me, ever argued that Brewer is better than Chandler. I will say this, though: The Chandler the Nuggets received from NY was only a fraction of his usual self due to injury. So the Chandler who the Nuggets are "losing" (although we'll likely have him back for the last 4-6 weeks or so of the season) is not the player you're describing. Last season with the Knicks he had a PER of 15.7, but with the Nuggets his PER was 11.6, including an absolutely abysmal 4.0 in the playoffs, where he totally disappeared. So the player who actually played for the Nuggets was really nothing special, and it's not a major loss in that sense. I do like him, but in reality injuries prevented him from playing up to his potential in Denver.

Yes, Mozgov and Koufos are both "projects", but KK is entering his 3rd season now, and Moz, having played pro ball in Russia, is really somewhat of a "false beginner" who should be on an accelerated learning curve. Karl has said he plans to play him 20-25 minutes a game. Nene and Gallo will both play 30+. That leaves about 60-65 spare minutes remaining at the 3-4-5 positions which can easily be filled by Birdman, Koufos, Al, Faried, Brewer and probably (in small, 2-PG lineups) Afflalo and Rudy at times.

You obviously don't think very highly of any of these players individually, but I think you're underestimating how much flexibility this kind of depth gives Karl in creating favorable matchups, throwing a lot of different kinds of offensive an defensive looks at opponents, and just wearing teams down by driving the pace while maintaining a healthy stream of fresh legs coming into games.

Now this approach probably becomes less effective in the playoffs, but the topic here is the regular season standings.

Fortunately, we'll find out soon enough which one of us is right. I think the Nuggets will surprise. But we'll see.

DenButsu
12-23-2011, 10:37 PM
Nice to see the Jazz not as low on Hollinger's PR as pretty much everyone else's.

His stats are pretty accurate though right?

His stats are definitely accurate. The grey area, really, is the interpretation of those stats, which leaves a lot more room open for conjecture an opinion. But if we could ask him, I'm sure he'd be the first to acknowledge that, too.

waveycrockett
12-23-2011, 10:43 PM
LMAO @ Kenyon martin being athletic...Whoever says that really doesnt know what they talking about. Kenyon is brute and defensive minded, but still playing on two knees that had microfracture surgery. Besides putback dunks, and good spin moves, he's definitely not gonna be missed for his athleticism--more of his defense is what will be missed.

And it makes me laugh how people count the nuggets out...We are as deep as last year. Regardless of "athleticism".

He's more athletic and better defensively than Mozogov. Not even Close

Kakaroach
12-23-2011, 10:46 PM
His stats are definitely accurate. The grey area, really, is the interpretation of those stats, which leaves a lot more room open for conjecture an opinion. But if we could ask him, I'm sure he'd be the first to acknowledge that, too. Yeah, like with most advanced stats I'd expect that to be the case.

Well, here's to hoping he interpreted his own stats right. :shrug:

Go_NUGGETS
12-23-2011, 10:46 PM
He's more athletic and better defensively than Mozogov. Not even Close

Okay then, since you seem to know...What does Kenyon Martins supposed atheleticism do for us, and what has it done for us in the past--us as being the Nuggets team?


And what did K-Mart aboslutely do athletically that makes him so superior to Mozgov?

DenButsu
12-23-2011, 11:09 PM
Kenyon has hops, and with those, he dunked. But I would say that his strongest physical attributes were physical strength (he could hold his position against bigger guys) and quick hands. Cutting to the basket and dunking, in addition to his horrific mid-range jumper, was his go-to move, but that's not what made him a valuable player. He definitely was the defensive quarterback of the team.

I don't think anybody's suggesting that Moz is "replacing" him defensively, either. What is true, though, is that a new and different defensive scheme, which hopefully will be just as effective, can be built on a foundation of a frontcourt trio with great size and mobility. Compare Moz (7'1"), Nene (6'11") and Gallo (6'10") to Nene, K-Mart (6'9") and Melo (6'8"), and you can quickly see that the whole concept of "replacing K-Mart with Moz" doesn't really make much sense, because the whole structure of the team is radically different.

And that's part of the reason right now it's really easy for there to be such a wide range of opinion on the Nuggets' prospects this season. They'll retain some of their most important players, and some qualities such as depth, a team-based concept and a fast pace, but there also will be enough question marks resulting from new players, improvement from the development of young players, and what form this new structure will congeal into, that there's a lot of room for speculation of all kinds.

My last word on the subject will be this: Everybody thought the Nuggets were ****ed last season. Just after the Melo trade, George Karl said in an interview, " 'All you f***ers who think we won't be good anymore, **** you,' "That's what I tell myself every morning now." ...and went on to back it up. As a Nuggs fan, I have confidence in this team until they give me reason not to, based on what they've already accomplished. Hopefully they won't disappoint.

mzgrizz
12-24-2011, 12:47 AM
Wow......lots of words about my old second favorite team, but I really can't see them as #2 seed. I think they will be lucky to be 6 to 8. My Grizz are definitely facing a challenge with losing Arthur but getting Cunningham today makes the pain a lot less. Don't go sleeping on my Grizz or they'll come back to bite!

tp13baby
12-24-2011, 01:37 AM
JR Smith is one of the most overrated players in the game. He hurts a team more than he helps them. I am sure all Denver fans can agree. I prefer Rudy who is overall a better outside shooter and Jordan Hamilton over JR.

Wilson can come back midseason but i honestly don't know if we can retain him. K Mart will hurt the most out of all three cause he was a leader and heart of the team.

Denver will make the playoffs and are steps ahead of teams such as Golden State, the Suns, Utah etc. 6 seed is probably a good prediction.

latinofire21
12-24-2011, 01:49 AM
I will defend my knicks to the grave the same way you guys defend your nuggets to the grave.

My arguement has been the same from the very beginning. You cant say this years Nuggets team is as deep as last years. You replaced key components of last years team with journeymen who couldnt crack the rotations on the previous teams.

Gonuggets said Brewer averaged 20 minutes on the Twolves. What were the Twolves records the years he started for them?

What i do know about Brewer is that he has a reputation for being a hard nosed defender but he has no offensive game to think of. He got released from the Knicks because he wasnt going to see immediate playing time. He got on the Mavs for a championship run where he got limited minutes. He now joins a Nuggets team where he joins a "deep" bench. He by no means is a Chandler replacement even if chandlers numbers went down from leaving NYK.

You saying that JR Smith is the same as Fernandez is absolutely laughable. One is a volume shooter who is streaky as hell and the other was used as a gimic player getting spot minutes for every team hes played for. How can you even compare.

Its like the arguements I here about Novak being the Shawne Williams replacement for the Knicks. I will believe it when I see it but I dont see that being even close. Just because they play the same position they both shoot the 3 ball doesnt mean they will cancel each other out.

Its good to be an optimist. thats what being a fan is all about, but like Denbetsu said earlier in the post give examples backing up your ideas. Dont just say they are equal without giving a reason why.

For the record I am a JR Smith hater. I think hes a blackhole but I wouldnt even disrespect the man by saying Rudy Fernandez is equal to him.

The final part of the equation is Kenyon Martin. Your losing him and I know you have athletic long bodies but hes a loss regardless of what you say.

He has been a part of the nugget franchise for a very long time and a big part of their success. He isnt the athletic freak he once was in NJ but hes still a servicable veteran for any contender. If I see the contenders drooling over him for his services how could you dismiss him as a non-essential entity to your team?

Mosgov isnt the answer. When he becomes a starting center is when I role over in my grave. Hes good for spot minutes to serve as a BACKUP to a legitimate starting center. His problem was that the NBA game was much faster then what he was used to in his previous league. Maybe he catches up and becomes a legitimate center down the line but hes still labeled a project. Making a project your starting 5 and moving nene down to the 4 where Martin used to be is a downgrade.

You cannot attempt to garner an arguement saying that a team without a Martin replacement, Wilson Chandler, and JR Smith with no legitimate upgrades picked up in free agency is equivalent to how deep the team is this year.

This team is a watered down version of last years team to say the least. The schedule could be a bonus like Hollinger says but he doesnt factor in starting a project at your 5. What about the chemistry? You have a project at the 5, NENE no longer playing the 5 and moving down to the 4, Gallo starting at the 3, Affalo becoming the new 2guard starter and Lawson running the point. When last years depth starts moving into this years starting lineup you have to work the chemistry as a team. All the teams have to deal with the chemistry issues starting out so its not cut dry that Denver will benefit from this type of schedule. it can easily blow up in their face making that many adjustments to their starting lineup.

CousinsEvansDUO
12-24-2011, 01:59 AM
Denver fans are so annoying...if they think they're even close to winning a championship then they need to get their heads checked. And I don't think Kings will either but how are we only going to get 25 wins? That is ridiculous I expect at least 30-35. But anyways Denver aren't even a top 5 team in the west, Hollinger doesn't know what he's typing sometimes.

PippensBulls
12-24-2011, 02:13 AM
I usually agree with Hollinger in a lot of things, but Nuggets at #2?

DenButsu
12-24-2011, 02:14 AM
Denver fans are so annoying...if they think they're even close to winning a championship then they need to get their heads checked.

Please show me one single post in this thread where a Nuggets fan said that. And then after you can't do that, please read more carefully in the future.

This thread is about the regular season standings. And I don't think a single Nuggs fan in it has said they even agree w/ Hollinger that Denver will take the 2 seed. All that's really being said is that we think people are writing off the Nuggs prematurely, that they'll be better than many are predicting.


You cannot attempt to garner an arguement saying that a team without a Martin replacement, Wilson Chandler, and JR Smith

Well, we seem to be going around in circles here at this point, so I'll just have to let the Nuggets themselves make their own case on the court in support of what I'm saying (or perhaps what you're saying, although in the end I think it's you who will be surprised).

BallIsAll
12-24-2011, 02:21 AM
Theres no point in arguing with knick fans about the nuggets most of them still hate us from taking their whole roster last year and making them worse than they already were lol BTW i got tickets to see the nuggets vs knicks this year cant wait to see the nuggets kick their awful ***** :)

& i agree with these predictions whoever doesnt is because their teams were ranked lower than a team without a super star lmao

THE GIPPER
12-24-2011, 02:28 AM
Denver fans are so annoying...if they think they're even close to winning a championship then they need to get their heads checked. And I don't think Kings will either but how are we only going to get 25 wins? That is ridiculous I expect at least 30-35. But anyways Denver aren't even a top 5 team in the west, Hollinger doesn't know what he's typing sometimes.

Wow. You of all people haha.

Kyle916
12-24-2011, 03:08 AM
The Kings aren't winning 30-35 games. I love my Kings, but my god. It's going to be an interesting season for us.

eman
12-24-2011, 03:56 AM
Wow, this is the most "grass is greener on the other side" thread that I have ever read. People who are on here saying how the Nuggets lost key components of their team when they see Kenyon and Earl Junior cut loose have never been to the Nuggets forum.

I have much respect for Kenyon Martin, but Kenyon's contract was an obstruction that the team could never work its way around, the only solution that they managed to find was to trade Marcus Camby for essentially nothing, move Nene to center and pick up a journeyman free agent that got a cult following for all of his antics. I am also a big fan of JR but for people who don't read the Denver Post his off the court antics and the rise of Aaron Affalo ushered in his departure from Denver.

I will however, say that Wilson Chandler not being here is a loss although he was a shadow of himself while playing for the Nuggets. Preseason predictions are all about hope and the belief that players on the cusp of stardom can make that push and get there and losing one of the key components of the trade with New York should have dampened the outlook on the Nuggets not made them a number 2 seed even if there is a possibility that he could be back.

I am more in agreement with DenButSu when he says the Nuggets will be a number 3,4 or 5 seed, but more realistically see them at 4 or 5. You have to give the devil his due and say that OKC and LAC have the most buzz right now and that the Mavericks deserve the respect due to a champion. So that's the top 3 seeds.

The Lakers although formidable have put a lot of negativity around their franchise. They would be a lock for the 4th best team or even better than their Staple's Center mates but for the fact that they cannot compete for a NBA championship and all the negativity that the failed CP3 trade gave to the team. Their slide could be epic.

Memphis is the only other team that I could say deserves some pre-season prediction love because of their run in the playoffs but they were an eight seed last year that got matched up with an aging San Antonio team that they could be competitive with and won.

2 of the top free agents this year were Nene and Aaron Affalo, if other teams were that convinced that they were deserving of being signed away from the Nuggets why isn't it a coup when Masai Ujiri signs them both to stay.

Lastly, the Melodrama is gone, all the posters out there from other cities, unless you are from Cleveland, New Orleans or Orlando don't know how much of a breath of fresh air that not having Carmelo Anthony and his want out of town attitude really is.

astrosmaniac
12-24-2011, 03:18 PM
i still want to know his justification for losing chuck hayes taking the rockets from over .500 to under .500

latinofire21
12-24-2011, 03:56 PM
Theres no point in arguing with knick fans about the nuggets most of them still hate us from taking their whole roster last year and making them worse than they already were lol BTW i got tickets to see the nuggets vs knicks this year cant wait to see the nuggets kick their awful ***** :)

& i agree with these predictions whoever doesnt is because their teams were ranked lower than a team without a super star lmao

LOL dream on. I would love to sig bet you on that game if you were up for it. You think the Nuggets are going to kick the Knicks ***? How many points are Denver going to win by?

IF Denver loses to the Knicks you need to wear a sig with Melo all season and it has to say Denver got a ton of role players but we lost a true superstar. New York Knicks are hands down better then Denver Nuggets.

If the Nuggets win I will put up any sig you would like me to post.

How about it?

DenButsu
12-24-2011, 06:38 PM
LOL dream on. I would love to sig bet you on that game if you were up for it. You think the Nuggets are going to kick the Knicks ***? How many points are Denver going to win by?

IF Denver loses to the Knicks you need to wear a sig with Melo all season and it has to say Denver got a ton of role players but we lost a true superstar. New York Knicks are hands down better then Denver Nuggets.

If the Nuggets win I will put up any sig you would like me to post.

How about it?

The Nuggets only play the Knicks in NY this season, no game in Denver iirc. I think the Knicks will be pretty good, and will be helped by the fact that there are fewer interconference games this season and they can bottomfeed over in the East to beef up their record. Even so... I think the Nuggets will end up with a comparable record to the Knicks by the end of the season. And you can sig that if it makes you feel better.

latinofire21
12-24-2011, 06:48 PM
The Nuggets only play the Knicks in NY this season, no game in Denver iirc. I think the Knicks will be pretty good, and will be helped by the fact that there are fewer interconference games this season and they can bottomfeed over in the East to beef up their record. Even so... I think the Nuggets will end up with a comparable record to the Knicks by the end of the season. And you can sig that if it makes you feel better.

I dont think the Knicks will steamroll the Nuggets btw. I just like BallisAll's cockiness. If he really believes the Nuggets are going to blow out the knicks i would love a sig bet on that. All the other Nuggets fans seem very reasonable. Just a couple nutcases.