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View Full Version : Over or under.... chances T'Wolves pick "surprisingly" lands as #1 ?



beasted86
12-16-2011, 12:06 PM
Let PSD decide....

But I think regardless of if the Wolves have the worst record... if they are at least a bottom 6 team in the standings, the pick will go #1 or 2 no matter what.

LongIslandIcedZ
12-16-2011, 12:09 PM
If the league isnt rigged I'm gonna say no, just by playing the odds.

If the league is rigged I'm gonna say no, because Stern wont make it ridiculously obvious two years in a row.

AntiG
12-16-2011, 12:17 PM
thing is, they dont need to get #1 in order to get a future superstar. Pretty much any of the top 4 will net them a franchise player this year, and the one with the most potential of all (Perry Jones) probably won't even go #1 overall.

IUBball22
12-16-2011, 12:21 PM
I need to ask Dan Gilbert if he is ok with NO gettin the No. 1 pick. I will get back to you as soon as I get the memo

ManRam
12-16-2011, 12:23 PM
Not at all. I think they'll be better than most anticipate.

Hawkeye15
12-16-2011, 12:27 PM
I would guess even if the Wolves finish with the 10th worst record, there is a 90% chance it ends up #1. As a Wolves fan, I don't believe the draft is legit at all, and there isn't a person out there that can change my mind. The Wolves get continually screwed when they are in the lottery, Stern has made no attempt to hide that he hates the Wolves following the timeline around the Joe Smith deal, and the NBA owned Hornets will need a "feel good" story at some point anyways. Why not make it Minny's pick? First time the Wolves pick ever moves up, and they don't have it.

Bank on it.

jewno
12-16-2011, 12:37 PM
they'll get 2 just to make things less obvious, either way they'll get a superstar potential player at 2

kylem4711
12-16-2011, 12:38 PM
they will get the 1st

jewno
12-16-2011, 12:38 PM
if this was a lebron/rose/wall type draft where the 1 pick is ahead of the rest and its clear whos going number one than theyd probably win the lottery.

AntiG
12-16-2011, 12:40 PM
I would guess even if the Wolves finish with the 10th worst record, there is a 90% chance it ends up #1. As a Wolves fan, I don't believe the draft is legit at all, and there isn't a person out there that can change my mind. The Wolves get continually screwed when they are in the lottery, Stern has made no attempt to hide that he hates the Wolves following the timeline around the Joe Smith deal, and the NBA owned Hornets will need a "feel good" story at some point anyways. Why not make it Minny's pick? First time the Wolves pick ever moves up, and they don't have it.

Bank on it.

How do you explain the Celtics not getting #1 overall and the Spurs landing Duncan instead? If anything Stern would have wanted a revival of the Boston-LA rivalry and gave them Duncan to team up with Pierce and Walker... especially since the entire East was so bad back then.

Better-Than-You
12-16-2011, 12:42 PM
Stern will rigged Twolves games. In the final seconds, refs will negatively influence the outcome of their games in order to validate the 1st pick being 1st overall.

tcav701
12-16-2011, 12:49 PM
50% chance the Wolves pick is #1
50% chance the Hornets pick is #1

uprightciti
12-16-2011, 12:50 PM
its pretty good but i think that
the hornets will be a lottery team and could gun for that last spot to pick up drumond and lamb

Hellcrooner
12-16-2011, 12:52 PM
is stern gonna veto the three way deal that sends dwight to lakers, pau to wolves making them a playoff ( or very late lottery with very small odds) team too?

Hawkeye15
12-16-2011, 12:53 PM
How do you explain the Celtics not getting #1 overall and the Spurs landing Duncan instead? If anything Stern would have wanted a revival of the Boston-LA rivalry and gave them Duncan to team up with Pierce and Walker... especially since the entire East was so bad back then.

I am only concerned with reading into the Wolves being screwed over. As for your question, until they do a public ping pong draft, there will always be speculation on whether its fixed or not. Too many years its appeared to be as if the NBA is giving a top pick to a situation. Can't do it every year and make it super obvious, but I find it hard to believe it hasn't happened numerous times.

Hawkeye15
12-16-2011, 12:54 PM
is stern gonna veto the three way deal that sends dwight to lakers, pau to wolves making them a playoff ( or very late lottery with very small odds) team too?

what trade are you talking about?

todu82
12-16-2011, 12:59 PM
I think Minnesota will be a good team this year, not playoff team good but better than last place in the league good.

Hellcrooner
12-16-2011, 01:00 PM
what trade are you talking about?

something my croonersenses are foretelling me lately.

Hellcrooner
12-16-2011, 01:03 PM
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7359367&categoryid=2459788

wow....seems buchersenses are on the same stuff.....

ShakeN'Bake
12-16-2011, 01:05 PM
I am only concerned with reading into the Wolves being screwed over. As for your question, until they do a public ping pong draft, there will always be speculation on whether its fixed or not. Too many years its appeared to be as if the NBA is giving a top pick to a situation. Can't do it every year and make it super obvious, but I find it hard to believe it hasn't happened numerous times.

I, for the life of me, have never understood why they don't just do it in front of the public.

THE GIPPER
12-16-2011, 01:09 PM
I think the wolves pick will be #2. It will be sterns attempt of not being obvious about rigging the draft.

thekmp211
12-16-2011, 01:16 PM
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7359367&categoryid=2459788

wow....seems buchersenses are on the same stuff.....

never a good thing. if the wolves trade love and williams for just pau kahn should be fired on the spot.

i think the wolves are talented. they lost a ton of games in the 4th quarter last year. adelman may fix that. i think after all the heat stern got for the trade situation, it would not be wise to push the issue with a shady number one pick.

Hellcrooner
12-16-2011, 01:21 PM
never a good thing. if the wolves trade love and williams for just pau kahn should be fired on the spot.

i think the wolves are talented. they lost a ton of games in the 4th quarter last year. adelman may fix that. i think after all the heat stern got for the trade situation, it would not be wise to push the issue with a shady number one pick.

wont trade both.

I think most probably Orlando woudl accept Dwill+bynum and getting rid of turkoglu.
Wolves get Pau
lakers get dwight turkoglu and ridnour

something of the like, play some trade machine yourselves :p

Kobe4Life
12-16-2011, 01:32 PM
I'd like to give my opinion but It prob won't matter considering how corrupt the NBA is. I am sure Stern will just fold a piece of the corner of an envelope (Ewing Draft) oh wait their balls...I am sure he will come up with a scheme.....

king4day
12-16-2011, 01:34 PM
There's just too much talent in Minny for them to be that bad. The only way it happens is if they have major chemistry issues.

beasted86
12-16-2011, 01:34 PM
50% chance the Wolves pick is #1
50% chance the Hornets pick is #1

I think this makes sense.

rapjuicer06
12-16-2011, 02:05 PM
I see the Wolves being a fringe playoff team...so no way in hell do they get the number 1 pick...IMO

Cal827
12-16-2011, 02:07 PM
Whatever pick is better will become the first pick overall. If the Hornets are the worst team and Minni is 14th in the lottery, then NO will pick 1 and 3 or 4.

LakersA's49ers
12-16-2011, 02:19 PM
Minny will be alright. Not great but probably 6th or 7th worse. If that gets the 1, this league cheats

thechom80
12-16-2011, 02:20 PM
If they were to win the 'ship this year, Stern would somehow make their pick #1.

DR_1
12-16-2011, 05:19 PM
Not at all. I think they'll be better than most anticipate.

Same here.

mightybosstone
12-16-2011, 05:35 PM
Meh, I'm not buying it. I think the Wolves will improve and finish somewhere in the bottom 8-12. Whether or not you think the lottery is rigged (which I don't), I don't think Stern could justify that pick being No. 1 in the 8-12 range, especially with all the "NBA is crooked" conspiracy theories there are out there and how much scrutiny the league has gotten from the Paul trade veto.

Toxeryll
12-16-2011, 05:42 PM
it will be the hornets

Birdmannn
12-16-2011, 06:45 PM
Nope sorry its going to Cavs or Raps.
NO can have second and like seventh and then we will never know if its rigged.

bholly
12-16-2011, 07:02 PM
I would guess even if the Wolves finish with the 10th worst record, there is a 90% chance it ends up #1. As a Wolves fan, I don't believe the draft is legit at all, and there isn't a person out there that can change my mind. The Wolves get continually screwed when they are in the lottery, Stern has made no attempt to hide that he hates the Wolves following the timeline around the Joe Smith deal, and the NBA owned Hornets will need a "feel good" story at some point anyways. Why not make it Minny's pick? First time the Wolves pick ever moves up, and they don't have it.

Bank on it.


I am only concerned with reading into the Wolves being screwed over. As for your question, until they do a public ping pong draft, there will always be speculation on whether its fixed or not. Too many years its appeared to be as if the NBA is giving a top pick to a situation. Can't do it every year and make it super obvious, but I find it hard to believe it hasn't happened numerous times.

I've posted about this when you talked about it before, but from memory I don't think you read my posts. I ran the numbers, and there is no statistical evidence that the Wolves have done notably bad in the lottery. They've run seriously close to their expectation - I think on average they were something like half a pick below where they expect to be, which is super close over a small sample size.

I think (I'd have to dig up the post to get the exact numbers) the chance of never winning it, based on the lottery odds the Wolves have had, was something like 12-13%. It's unfortunate that they haven't won, but it's nothing close to evidence of an unfair system. That's about a 1 in 7 chance of them never winning it. It's barely less likely than rolling a 6 when you need one in some dice game. It would be more evidence of a rigged system if things like that never happened.

I'm yet to see an argument about rigging that actually uses any form of rigor or statistical analysis - it's always this anecdotal rubbish about 'too many coincidences' or whatever. People are notoriously bad at estimating statistics and likelihoods - we have huge confirmation and other biases. Until you can provide some numbers that give genuine statistical evidence of the lottery not being fair, you just sound like a whiner to anyone who understands statistics and probability.
The evidence for the lottery being not rigged, on the other hand, is pretty strong - it's observed by representatives of each team and the media, audited by Ernst and Young, and hasn't shown any systematic statistical bias that I'm aware of.

But you're welcome to your opinion.

Chronz
12-16-2011, 08:11 PM
Now that we dont own the pick I hope they make the playoffs

Hawkeye15
12-16-2011, 08:29 PM
I've posted about this when you talked about it before, but from memory I don't think you read my posts. I ran the numbers, and there is no statistical evidence that the Wolves have done notably bad in the lottery. They've run seriously close to their expectation - I think on average they were something like half a pick below where they expect to be, which is super close over a small sample size.

I think (I'd have to dig up the post to get the exact numbers) the chance of never winning it, based on the lottery odds the Wolves have had, was something like 12-13%. It's unfortunate that they haven't won, but it's nothing close to evidence of an unfair system. That's about a 1 in 7 chance of them never winning it. It's barely less likely than rolling a 6 when you need one in some dice game. It would be more evidence of a rigged system if things like that never happened.

I'm yet to see an argument about rigging that actually uses any form of rigor or statistical analysis - it's always this anecdotal rubbish about 'too many coincidences' or whatever. People are notoriously bad at estimating statistics and likelihoods - we have huge confirmation and other biases. Until you can provide some numbers that give genuine statistical evidence of the lottery not being fair, you just sound like a whiner to anyone who understands statistics and probability.
The evidence for the lottery being not rigged, on the other hand, is pretty strong - it's observed by representatives of each team and the media, audited by Ernst and Young, and hasn't shown any systematic statistical bias that I'm aware of.

But you're welcome to your opinion.


Yep, I have ignored them, because I choose to believe its rigged. Its beyond the Wolves. Its been rigged numerous times since they began the lottery in my opinion.

Oh well, I still watch and follow the NBA religiously, and I will stick to my opinion.

Cheers brother :)