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View Full Version : What's the salary cap going to be set at for 2011/2012 and the years after?



phoenix_bladen
11-27-2011, 06:27 PM
Do you guys know what the cap will be set at this year and will it go up next year or stay the same?

curious to know

bholly
11-28-2011, 02:15 AM
Nobody really knows, but at the last point that we had details (before it blew up a couple of weeks ago) the idea was that it would adjust down proportionally to the total salary split in the long run, but wouldn't go down in absolute terms for the first two years - so if we assume it's about the same in the current deal then we can speculate:
In the long run it's going to have to adjust down quite significantly. In the past players got total salary of 57% of BRI and so the cap was set at 51% of BRI minus benefits and adjustments for underpay/overpay from the previous year, and then divided by 30 teams. If the total salary split drops from 57% to the 49-51% band, then the cap is going to have to be set at more like 45% minus those adjustments and split between the teams. So if they adjusted instantly that would be a pretty big drop in the cap next year.
Again, though, a few weeks ago the idea (as reported by Howard Beck and others) was that it wouldn't decrease for the first two years, so it would stay at ~$58m and then adjust down after that (maybe over a few years). If BRI grows at (a pretty optimistic) 4% per year, we'd be looking at $58m per season the next couple of years, then it would maybe drop a couple of million, and then start to push above $58m a few years from now.

Of course, really we don't know anything and it's all speculation. Maybe they won't freeze it and the adjustment will be faster. Or maybe with the harder cap the % of BRI they base the cap figure on won't decrease as much as the total salary split. And, of course, the lockout will likely cause a significant hit to BRI, so they're going to have to factor that in too.

We'll find out in the next week or two how it's going to go, I suppose.

bholly
11-28-2011, 06:37 AM
Turns out the above is in the new agreement, so the cap will be the same as last season (~$58m) for the first two years, then will decrease proportionally.
Expect $58m for two seasons, then a small drop (maybe spread over a couple of seasons), and then regular growth (ie a few percent per season) after that.