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View Full Version : Free Agent Stock Watch - Aramis Ramirez



Jeffy25
10-19-2011, 12:36 AM
I'm going to be going through and discussing each free agent, you are to guess where that free agent will sign.


Up first is A-Ram, the Cubs third basemen. There is a 16.5 million dollar option on A-Ram, but it sounds like Ramirez wants to test free agency.

After having an injury riddled 09 and 10, Ramirez had his best year since 2008. His defense isn't that strong, but he is rather great offensively.

2011 - .373 wOBA, .358 career
3.6 fWAR, 0.4 last year in limited playing time, and a 2.2 in half a season in 09.

He projects to be a 3.5 - 4.0 WAR third basemen.

He will turn 34 next June.

Take a guess where he signs, and for how much.

My guess are the Angels, 3/36

Jeffy25
10-19-2011, 12:39 AM
There have been some rumors that he might want to play for Ozzie Guillen, and he could be a fit for the Dodgers. He might want to remain in Chicago as well.

Farsight
10-19-2011, 12:41 AM
I'm going to be going through and discussing each free agent, you are to guess where that free agent will sign.


Up first is A-Ram, the Cubs third basemen. There is a 16.5 million dollar option on A-Ram, but it sounds like Ramirez wants to test free agency.

After having an injury riddled 09 and 10, Ramirez had his best year since 2008. His defense isn't that strong, but he is rather great offensively.

2011 - .373 wOBA, .358 career
3.6 fWAR, 0.4 last year in limited playing time, and a 2.2 in half a season in 09.

He projects to be a 3.5 - 4.0 WAR third basemen.

He will turn 34 next June.

Take a guess where he signs, and for how much.

My guess are the Angels, 3/36
when i was reading youre post before i got to the bottom, i also thought 3/36, but now i have to guess something else... I think the dollar amount per year is spot on. But i would not be surprised to see something along the lines of a 4/44 million. the first 3 years he gets 12 million per year, and the last year is a team option for 8 million.

Zetterberg40
10-19-2011, 12:45 AM
Honestly I wouldnt mind the Cubs bringing him back he was my favorite Cub for a few years after the trade was made him and Kenny Lofton were such a huge part of the success of that team. Then again what team didn't Kenny play for that didnt make a solid run at a title its an absolute shame he never got his ring.

Jeffy25
10-19-2011, 12:47 AM
Lofton = under-rated CFer, almost a hall of famer.

RTL
10-19-2011, 02:07 AM
I could see the Brewers grabbing him if Fielder does indeed go elsewhere.

DodgerB24
10-19-2011, 02:25 AM
I wouldn't be supreised if the Dodgers signed him if the McCourt situation gets sorted out. The Dodgers have no one at 3B and it would give a solid 3-4-5 with Ethier, Kemp and Ramirez.

McPeak92
10-19-2011, 02:35 AM
Phillies will be linked to him. First priority is Madson and JRoll(or a cheaper option) but will turn to A-Ram if there is money left.

bagwell368
10-19-2011, 08:00 AM
He used to be a good fielder - until numerous health issues sapped him down to below average.

He's only had one good batting/games played year in the last 3.

He's a big aging guy that plays 3B (the most deadly position after C) in terms of injuries (look at the age 26-35 group for once very good+ 3B going down the tubes due to injury)

Anyone that signs him to a mid term, high buck deal is going to be very unhappy with what they get. As long as he doesn't come to Boston. I hope an AL rival signs him for big bucks - BWHAHAHHAA

Joemoes
10-19-2011, 08:14 AM
White sox angels or tigers. Dodgers and brewers could be dark horses I don't see why an nl team would want him his body is going to break down.

I voted white sox but I think tigers get him magglio off books Tigers bid 4 years 44 million.

StayOnBoard
10-19-2011, 08:14 AM
I'm going to say the Brewers... 3/36.

They can't go in with Casey McGayhee this season and expect to be in contention.

Having Ramirez would really make their lineup solid - though they'll lose Fielder they could get a guy like Carlos Pena as a stop gap if the Cubbies sign one of Prince/Pujols as <somewhat> expected.

Anyways Im going off topic... the Brewers :)

Pinstripe pride
10-19-2011, 08:39 AM
he;s not very good regardless where he goes. i say he stays with the cubs

SportsGuru2110
10-19-2011, 09:03 AM
At this very moment I am going to say the Angels, but I would not be surprised at all if he stayed in Chicago.

northsider
10-19-2011, 10:04 AM
Lofton = under-rated CFer, almost a hall of famer.

Prob. one of my fav. players and couldn't believe he was added in the Pirates trade in 03.

BALLER71
10-19-2011, 10:23 AM
Does anyone think that the Marlins could be a realistic option?

Ill21
10-19-2011, 11:16 AM
Braves, Tigers or Cubs.

SportsGuru2110
10-19-2011, 11:23 AM
Does anyone think that the Marlins could be a realistic option?

If there isn't a team out there trying to give him big money then absolutely.

KingPosey
10-19-2011, 11:34 AM
I dont care about issues with positions, I want him on the Giants. I have always loved this dude and he rips the baseball.

Fred
10-19-2011, 12:30 PM
Phillies....about 3/$40....that assumes that JRoll walks....

C-ross12
10-19-2011, 01:28 PM
Tigers. 3/45 is my guess. I'd say he has 3 more years left until hes probably done for good.

rapjuicer06
10-19-2011, 01:34 PM
Tigers

1908_Cubs
10-19-2011, 03:31 PM
He'll be making upwards of $13m per season. Do not think he will be declining his half of a $16m option for under $13m.

The Cubs are not going to be signing him back if he declines his option. I can assure you that.

Muttman73
10-19-2011, 03:51 PM
Miami

bagwell368
10-19-2011, 03:55 PM
I dont care about issues with positions, I want him on the Giants. I have always loved this dude and he rips the baseball.

He's been a terrible fielder the past six years.

His games played since '07: 132, 149, 082, 124, 149 = 127 average

He's .260/.325/.394 in SBC, and .091/.091/.091 in 3Com

You sure this is the guy you want?

he'll be 34 in June, and given he started in the Majors at age 20 (wink wink), he's clearly at the cusp of his decline.

Yankee Clipper
10-19-2011, 05:23 PM
I could realistically see him ending up with the Tigers or Braves.

Ezio
10-19-2011, 06:06 PM
Some team that needs a DH.

RTL
10-19-2011, 07:20 PM
I dont care about issues with positions, I want him on the Giants. I have always loved this dude and he rips the baseball.

You should care since Sandoval is better than him.

Fred
10-19-2011, 07:43 PM
I could realistically see him ending up with the Tigers or Braves.

I could see the Tigers, but not the Braves unless Chipper is retiring or moving to a different position...

Rndy
10-19-2011, 08:14 PM
I think the Angels finally get Aramis Ramirez after their 10th try at the guy.

Kinsm
10-19-2011, 09:19 PM
The Cubs will pick up their half of the option and then offer him arbitration after he declines his half. I predict he signs for 4 years / 52 mil with FLA. The Marlins are going to surprise a lot of people and spend some money this offseason. He's probabl going to be overpaid because he'll be the only starting 3Bman available in FA.

Dcup
10-20-2011, 02:13 PM
I could see the Brewers grabbing him if Fielder does indeed go elsewhere.

Not a chance. Brewers will lose Fielder's contract and also pick up 15 million more in raises to Braun, Hart and Weeks, so Prince is a wash. If it truly is 3/36 (which is probably about right), no way Mark A. spends that kind of money.

Not to mention Brewers have McGehee, Taylor Green and Mat Gamel. Not saying any of those three are as good as Aramis, but Melvin is not going to break the bank at a position where they have 3 MLB ready guys.

We need a shortstop...and probably a 1B which may take one of the above mentioned so that still leaves you with 2 3B and if Hairston sticks around we're good.


He's been a terrible fielder the past six years.

His games played since '07: 132, 149, 082, 124, 149 = 127 average

He's .260/.325/.394 in SBC, and .091/.091/.091 in 3Com

You sure this is the guy you want?

he'll be 34 in June, and given he started in the Majors at age 20 (wink wink), he's clearly at the cusp of his decline.

Jose Reyes averages about that many per year as well and he is what 7 years younger? I dont think it matters...my vote = White Sox.

bagwell368
10-20-2011, 03:19 PM
Jose Reyes averages about that many per year as well and he is what 7 years younger? I dont think it matters...my vote = White Sox.

Reyes is not the topic. 3B as a group suffer more severe drop offs in games played and offense produced from age 26-34 then any other position (by far) other then catcher.

The Schmidt/Brett type actually only occurs about 1/8 the time the past 60 years. And of those guys only a couple generated more then two seasons over age 34 that were special. The rest of them end up like Bill Melton, Mike Lowell, etc.

RTL
10-20-2011, 03:41 PM
We need a shortstop...and probably a 1B which may take one of the above mentioned so that still leaves you with 2 3B and if Hairston sticks around we're good.


Gamel is most likely your 1B since that's what he played this season, if the Brewers were to stay in house. I don't think anyone views him as a 3B anymore. I'm not saying the Brewers are the front runner but could see them as somewhat of a sleeper to get ARam.

Jeffy25
10-20-2011, 03:50 PM
I would think you will see Green or Maldonado playing for the Brewers next year before you will see A-Ram

Brad IBCB
10-20-2011, 06:49 PM
I think he goes to Detroit. I think they want to make a splash, and he'd easily be an upgrade.

Dcup
10-20-2011, 07:07 PM
Reyes is not the topic. 3B as a group suffer more severe drop offs in games played and offense produced from age 26-34 then any other position (by far) other then catcher.

The Schmidt/Brett type actually only occurs about 1/8 the time the past 60 years. And of those guys only a couple generated more then two seasons over age 34 that were special. The rest of them end up like Bill Melton, Mike Lowell, etc.

I know Reyes isn't the topic, but was comparing his GP to Aramis to the other guy.


Gamel is most likely your 1B since that's what he played this season, if the Brewers were to stay in house. I don't think anyone views him as a 3B anymore. I'm not saying the Brewers are the front runner but could see them as somewhat of a sleeper to get ARam.

I agree for the most part, but if that's the case I would hope that he pulls his head out of his *** and starts hitting ML pitching. I still only view him as a AAA+ player, definitely not everyday.

In the Brewers forum we're talking about the possibilities of bringing in a slugging vet for 1B...just hope that guy isn't Carlos Pena. Our team OBP outside of Braun is horrendous enough.


I would think you will see Green or Maldonado playing for the Brewers next year before you will see A-Ram

Agreed.

AI
10-20-2011, 07:26 PM
I'll go with the Rockies, 3 years $36M.

Joemoes
10-20-2011, 10:30 PM
Red sox could be a possibility with Youk and Aram dhing and 3rd base if they say goodbye to big papi which might be best to break up that group and get new blood in.

AI
10-20-2011, 10:38 PM
We don't need any more 3B. Youk, Lowrie and Aviles will share the load at 3B next year with Middlebrooks maybe getting some time as a September call-up if we clinch early.

Jeffy25
10-21-2011, 11:51 AM
think you'll make the playoffs next year?

Straight Edge
10-21-2011, 12:22 PM
The only way I see A-Ram comming back to the Cubs is if hes willing to accept a 2yr deal. That said I think he want 3yrs or more so I see him going to Detriot Tigers. They need to upgrade 3rd, and they always seem to make a splash. If he doesnt end up with the Tigers I see Marlins, D'Backs, and Angels being a option for A-Ram and you cant count out the Red Soxs, Yanks and Phillies.....

bagwell368
10-21-2011, 12:43 PM
think you'll make the playoffs next year?

Sox have a better chance then most teams to get in the playoffs in '12. The clean-up will be done before '13, not '12 (too expensive), and the kids should flow much thicker in '13 and '14. So even if we edge in, we go no place in '12.

A lot of BoSox fans are overreacting to what sort of Manager we need. They crave some big tough yeller. That's not leadership. That's a strident blowhard bully. Sox need a leader that won't be asking for players to rat each other out, or use the clubhouse guys to do it.

Leadership pulls forward, it doesn't kick in the butt. A bad choice in Manager may ****** progress more.

bagwell368
10-21-2011, 12:57 PM
Red sox could be a possibility with Youk and Aram dhing and 3rd base if they say goodbye to big papi which might be best to break up that group and get new blood in.

Only if:

they deal Youk or Lowrie AND they don't think Middlebrooks will be ready until mid '14

AND

the Sox don't take much of a bath on moving Lackey, because there several deals that accelerate a lot this coming year, others that accelerate a bit, and we have holes to fill in the line-up, SP, and RP staffs (and some kids get these jobs).

That means a .003% shot, which is good because Ramirez is an injury magnet.

AI
10-21-2011, 01:37 PM
think you'll make the playoffs next year?

Notice the "if" in my post? That pretty much speaks for itself.

Jeffy25
10-21-2011, 01:38 PM
Didn't see the 'if', thought it just said when we clinch early

Jeffy25
10-21-2011, 01:38 PM
Sox should be the favorites in 2012 pre-season, but the Rays and Yankees deserve every bit of attention

bagwell368
10-21-2011, 01:53 PM
Sox should be the favorites in 2012 pre-season, but the Rays and Yankees deserve every bit of attention

Well, with Wake, Tek, Drew, and perhaps Ortiz not coming back

and

Lackey getting dealt, Buccholz's health status, a 5th SP, and a 4th?

and

Paps maybe going, and a generally lousy pen...


I'd like the see the team that breaks camp before I make any predictions....

johnlh
10-21-2011, 02:09 PM
[QUOTE=Jeffy25;19534000]I'm going to be going through and discussing each free agent, you are to guess where that free agent will sign.


Up first is A-Ram, the Cubs third basemen. There is a 16.5 million dollar option on A-Ram, but it sounds like Ramirez wants to test free agency.

After having an injury riddled 09 and 10, Ramirez had his best year since 2008. His defense isn't that strong, but he is rather great offensively.

2011 - .373 wOBA, .358 career
3.6 fWAR, 0.4 last year in limited playing time, and a 2.2 in half a season in 09.

He projects to be a 3.5 - 4.0 WAR third basemen.

He will turn 34 next June.

Take a guess where he signs, and for how much.


My wish/guess is Cubs for 3 years at 40 mil. with a club option for a 4th year.

85BearsDefense
10-21-2011, 02:41 PM
Cubs 2-20 with a 3rd year option

koldjerky
10-21-2011, 03:51 PM
I'd hope the Phillies at least look in to him.

I'd see him geting a 3-4 year deal worth 39-46 mil.

KingPosey
10-21-2011, 05:06 PM
He's been a terrible fielder the past six years.

His games played since '07: 132, 149, 082, 124, 149 = 127 average

He's .260/.325/.394 in SBC, and .091/.091/.091 in 3Com

You sure this is the guy you want?

he'll be 34 in June, and given he started in the Majors at age 20 (wink wink), he's clearly at the cusp of his decline.

He missed a lot of time from 09 to 10 because of an injury, he played 150 games the season before, and this season as well.

Pablo is not a good fielder either, and Im not a huge fan of defnsive statistics assuming what a player should and shouldnt have done, that seems very subjective, especially when some sites never have him being a good defensive player. And his defense has declined, but not by much according to his defensive "war", and he still does some thing right.

An example of what I mean, when I see that his RF/9 has gone down below the league avg, but he was still 4th in baseball in assists this season, I cant agree with a stat thats based off of put outs and assists that says he doesnt make plays.
Either way, Ill take the player he apparently "declined" into this season, over Aubrey huff in the infield, killing rallies, gidps, and already being declined now.

bagwell368
10-21-2011, 06:22 PM
He missed a lot of time from 09 to 10 because of an injury

Hence my first point:

A look into 3B w/ more then two 3.0 WAR years in their career over the past 60 years, shows a tremendous issue with games played and WAR value starting as early as age 26, quite apparent by age 32, and off the cliff at age 35 (including the large amount already in retirement). We are talking 1 in 9 have more then 2 good years after age 34. For every Schmidt there are 8 Melton's.


especially when some sites never have him being a good defensive player. And his defense has declined, but not by much according to his defensive "war", and he still does some thing right.

Using BR WAR, and RField it's pretty clear that Ramirez was an average (not great) glove before 2006. It's also true that since, he has had:


3 poor years (2006, 2010, 2011)
1 below average years (2009)
2 average years (2007, 2008)


This isn't at all unusual for 3B during these ages. It's only the elite defenders like Brooks and Rolen that hold up well deep into their 30's. Most others lose most of their range.


An example of what I mean, when I see that his RF/9 has gone down below the league avg, but he was still 4th in baseball in assists this season, I cant agree with a stat thats based off of put outs and assists that says he doesnt make plays.

The pitching staff, and opposing batting charts could sort that out. I've seen him play maybe 15 times since '08 and his range seems to be below average. Given his size and injury issues, it would be a miracle if he was light on his feet out there.


Either way, Ill take the player he apparently "declined" into this season, over Aubrey huff in the infield, killing rallies, gidps, and already being declined now.

Long declines like Jeter's for instance often have outliers, but when the whole of his career is known, it will be clear that he's already in decline, and will not be getting more then 1 more year ~3.5 rWAR type, and 1 more ~4.3 rWAR again - and that's optimistic IMO.

On top of everything he has played 1683 + 18 playoff games. Only a very few 3B that went over 1700 games did much with the bat compared to their prime. Mathews, Santo, Ventura, Boggs, went to hell at or around 1700 games. You think Ramirez is better then them - or not subject to the same issues as they were because of 3B?

hgtiger32
10-22-2011, 02:47 AM
i want him on the Brewers

KingPosey
10-22-2011, 03:13 AM
Hence my first point:

A look into 3B w/ more then two 3.0 WAR years in their career over the past 60 years, shows a tremendous issue with games played and WAR value starting as early as age 26, quite apparent by age 32, and off the cliff at age 35 (including the large amount already in retirement). We are talking 1 in 9 have more then 2 good years after age 34. For every Schmidt there are 8 Melton's.



Using BR WAR, and RField it's pretty clear that Ramirez was an average (not great) glove before 2006. It's also true that since, he has had:


3 poor years (2006, 2010, 2011)
1 below average years (2009)
2 average years (2007, 2008)


This isn't at all unusual for 3B during these ages. It's only the elite defenders like Brooks and Rolen that hold up well deep into their 30's. Most others lose most of their range.



The pitching staff, and opposing batting charts could sort that out. I've seen him play maybe 15 times since '08 and his range seems to be below average. Given his size and injury issues, it would be a miracle if he was light on his feet out there.



Long declines like Jeter's for instance often have outliers, but when the whole of his career is known, it will be clear that he's already in decline, and will not be getting more then 1 more year ~3.5 rWAR type, and 1 more ~4.3 rWAR again - and that's optimistic IMO.

On top of everything he has played 1683 + 18 playoff games. Only a very few 3B that went over 1700 games did much with the bat compared to their prime. Mathews, Santo, Ventura, Boggs, went to hell at or around 1700 games. You think Ramirez is better then them - or not subject to the same issues as they were because of 3B?

I respect a lot of what you are saying, and you do have a ton supporting it, Im not really arguing against you, with much more than after watching him this year, and watching my team, I believe WE would get the necessary value from him. I assume he can play first base, at least as well as Huff is playing the field. If he is anywhere near that, then his offense is an exponential bonus for our team.

As far as the bold I never said that, so Im not going to get into a situation where words are put in my mouth. Now being better than someone, and physically being able to perform longer than someone are 2 different things. Maybe he can, maybe he cant. But after missing a bunch of time to an injury, and coming back and having a year like he did this year, leads me to believe he takes great care of himself, and he can obviously perform offensively as well as just about any player still in the game at 3rd base, and would still be above average offensively at 1st base.

Now comparing him to those players offensively, by statistics, in a vaccum. Not their WAR within their own era, just statistically... Boggs is the better "hitter", Boggs was very Mauer-esq. But Aramis is the more dangerous middle of the order hitter, they are very different in that aspect. Aramis appears to be a better hitter than Robin flat out, almost all around.

Eddie Mathews was awesome within his era, had more power than Aramis,they are comparable statistically, but Mathews was devistating in the early part of his career. Plus he went to 1b later in his career, which is what I am proposing. Ramirez and Santo are very comarable as far as season averages go as well, with probably an edge to Ramirez. Again thats all just numbers, not in comparison to their peers, or eras, or any of that.

Brad IBCB
10-22-2011, 03:38 AM
Aramis has been by favorite player since he arrived in 03, and I can say that Bagwell is right. At least about his glove. His defense has been pretty poor for most of his career. He had a couple of years where he was pretty good at the hot corner, but hasn't been anywhere near average since.

His bat is still right up there with most 3B in all of baseball though. I don't think he ever reached his full potential without legitimate protection in the lineup.

All in all, if I had to guess, I'd say he has two more useful years left in him. It'll be a mistake for any NL team to sign him for any longer. Possibly any AL team too.

Jeffy25
10-22-2011, 08:31 AM
I respect a lot of what you are saying, and you do have a ton supporting it, Im not really arguing against you, with much more than after watching him this year, and watching my team, I believe WE would get the necessary value from him. I assume he can play first base, at least as well as Huff is playing the field. If he is anywhere near that, then his offense is an exponential bonus for our team.

As far as the bold I never said that, so Im not going to get into a situation where words are put in my mouth. Now being better than someone, and physically being able to perform longer than someone are 2 different things. Maybe he can, maybe he cant. But after missing a bunch of time to an injury, and coming back and having a year like he did this year, leads me to believe he takes great care of himself, and he can obviously perform offensively as well as just about any player still in the game at 3rd base, and would still be above average offensively at 1st base.

Now comparing him to those players offensively, by statistics, in a vaccum. Not their WAR within their own era, just statistically... Boggs is the better "hitter", Boggs was very Mauer-esq. But Aramis is the more dangerous middle of the order hitter, they are very different in that aspect. Aramis appears to be a better hitter than Robin flat out, almost all around.

Eddie Mathews was awesome within his era, had more power than Aramis,they are comparable statistically, but Mathews was devistating in the early part of his career. Plus he went to 1b later in his career, which is what I am proposing. Ramirez and Santo are very comarable as far as season averages go as well, with probably an edge to Ramirez. Again thats all just numbers, not in comparison to their peers, or eras, or any of that.

Why would the Giants want Ramirez?

Sandoval is at third, and likely will be for the next 3-4 years.

You have Huff and Belt, and neither can really play the outfield.

And Ramirez and Huff basically swapped 2010 and 2011. Neither is showing a really positive outlook for 2012 over the other. He doesn't have a position, and you don't have the money coming off the books this year (most of it's next year, and no Ross and DeRosa aren't enough, you will lose their salaries in arb raises alone). And it's a guy that is very very likely to show decline.

I know the Giants need offense, and they are in a position to win if they can get some bats, but Ramirez isn't a AT&T type of hitter that is likely to yield a ton of success there. He is mostly a fly ball hitter that needs to go to a small ball park to have great seasons. I just don't see the fit for Ramirez in San Fran. I can see a re-signing of Beltran, and maybe even a run after say Jose Reyes. But their needs are offensive speedsters that can hit the ball to the gap. If they can find that, their offensive woes may be greatly improved.

I feel you would be very disappointed with A-Ram

RTL
10-22-2011, 09:50 AM
ARam isn't even on the Giants radar, KingPosey. Let it go!

fishfan79
10-22-2011, 04:02 PM
aramis and cj wilson to miami are my surprised for FA :)