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View Full Version : Which Championship MVP would you take on your team in a 7 Game Series?



Jeffy25
10-17-2011, 02:09 PM
Who would you take, Freese or Cruz's offensive outputs for a game 7 series?

Cruz hit .364/.440/.1.273 going 8 for 22 with 6 home runs, 2 doubles, 2 walks and 4 strike outs

Freese went .545/.600/.1.069 going 12 for 22 with 3 home runs, 3 doubles, 2 walks (1 hit by pitch) and two strike outs.

WPA (Win Probability Added)

Freese
Game
1 - .262
2 - -.016
3 - .047
4 - .002
5 - .052
6 - .312

Total - .659

Cruz
Game
1 - .024
2 - .391
3 - -.056
4 - .009
5 - -.009
6 - .067

Total - .426

Jeffy25
10-17-2011, 02:10 PM
and this is based on what they did, not what they might do in the future.

Which player, based on the numbers only, would you rather have had

Jeffy25
10-17-2011, 02:11 PM
a .600 OBP with impressive power is hard to pass up for a guy with amazing power and an impressive OBP.

Freese was probably more valuable, but 6 home runs isn't something you can ignore.

Freese would be likely produce more runs, but I think Cruz is just too hard to pass up.

Tough call.

Yankee Clipper
10-17-2011, 02:13 PM
I would take Cruz in this situation. He has been an absolute monster this postseason with an impressive 6 home runs and a great OPS. Freese has been playing unbelievable for the Cardinals as well, but I am going with Cruz on this one.

NYMETS2889
10-17-2011, 02:51 PM
who ever drove in more runs OBP isn't a big deal in the playoffs which is why the a's never won anything

Twitchy
10-17-2011, 03:04 PM
It's kind of a chicken and the egg thing. It's really hard to drive guys in, if nobody is on base.

Actually, now that I think about it, it's not that difficult. Because without hitting a HR you don't score without having someone on base first.

As to the question, Cruz.

Jeffy25
10-17-2011, 03:06 PM
They were 13-9 in RBI's (Cruz-Freese)

Cruz drove himself in 3 more times than Freese did.

"Ace"ves
10-17-2011, 03:07 PM
I take into consideration the pitchers involved and the situations in which these players got their hits/homeruns

Jeffy25
10-17-2011, 03:10 PM
It's kind of a chicken and the egg thing. It's really hard to drive guys in, if nobody is on base.

Actually, now that I think about it, it's not that difficult. Because without hitting a HR you don't score without having someone on base first.

As to the question, Cruz.

The WPA is the only thing that makes me want to side with Freese, which certainly yields it's value to OBP, something Freese whooped Cruz in. But the home runs. Incredibly valuable.

If all we had were the stats, and I knew a player on me team was going to have one of those two slash lines over the series, I would take the OBP guy. But a guy that averages a home run per game can't really be dismissed.

Jetsguy
10-17-2011, 03:30 PM
Cruz - in a playoff series not only is 6 HR huge (and solid "other" numbers as well) but the spots he hit some of them in were crazy clutch.

6 seemed like 15!

WoodandNails
10-17-2011, 03:45 PM
The WPA is the only thing that makes me want to side with Freese, which certainly yields it's value to OBP, something Freese whooped Cruz in. But the home runs. Incredibly valuable.

If all we had were the stats, and I knew a player on me team was going to have one of those two slash lines over the series, I would take the OBP guy. But a guy that averages a home run per game can't really be dismissed.

I don't understand why you would use WPA in a comparison like this. Isn't WPA almost entirely a result of the situations a hitter bats in? Two guys could go 5-5 with 5 homeruns, but if one player hit all grand slams and the other all solo homeruns, the player with the men on base during his at bats will end up with a much higher WPA. If we're choosing between these two players and only taking one of them, why factor in what their teammates did?

In a short series, I'm taking amazing slugging and impressive OBP over amazing OBP and impressive slugging, without question. Over a long season, I'd probably choose more scoring opportunities, but when you may only have four games to keep your season alive, I think you sacrifice some of those scoring chances for better scoring chances (and in this case, twice as many guaranteed scores).

McJoe
10-17-2011, 03:48 PM
This is another thing that says that clutch is not a measurable stat. Cruz was clutch. Walk off homer in game 2 or 3, 11th inning homer in game 4 or whatever.

Cruz.

ManningToTyree
10-17-2011, 04:13 PM
Cruz is clutch and red hot. I'll take him

Jeffy25
10-17-2011, 04:26 PM
I don't understand why you would use WPA in a comparison like this. Isn't WPA almost entirely a result of the situations a hitter bats in? Two guys could go 5-5 with 5 homeruns, but if one player hit all grand slams and the other all solo homeruns, the player with the men on base during his at bats will end up with a much higher WPA. If we're choosing between these two players and only taking one of them, why factor in what their teammates did?
WPA also gives a huge value to the situations, people are saying Cruz was 'clutch' with the walk off and two extra inning home runs. But WPA shows that what Freese did helped his team win more easily than what Cruz did.

That's the only real reason I posted it. Because while Cruz might appear more clutch, he might not have been.

I would have posted WPA regardless who was better. It's really the only way to show value in such a short series. How much did each player impact their teams probability for success.

It shows situation, defense, base running etc.


In a short series, I'm taking amazing slugging and impressive OBP over amazing OBP and impressive slugging, without question. Over a long season, I'd probably choose more scoring opportunities, but when you may only have four games to keep your season alive, I think you sacrifice some of those scoring chances for better scoring chances (and in this case, twice as many guaranteed scores).

Yeah, I pretty well agree. Over the course of a full season, Freese is my guy (with those numbers) over the course of a best of 7. I want the guy that can drive himself in more.

WoodandNails
10-17-2011, 04:52 PM
WPA also gives a huge value to the situations, people are saying Cruz was 'clutch' with the walk off and two extra inning home runs. But WPA shows that what Freese did helped his team win more easily than what Cruz did.

That's the only real reason I posted it. Because while Cruz might appear more clutch, he might not have been.

I would have posted WPA regardless who was better. It's really the only way to show value in such a short series. How much did each player impact their teams probability for success.

It shows situation, defense, base running etc.

Even being "clutch" depends on what your teammates do. A three-run homer is clutch in a close game, but excess if your teammates performed well enough to make the game a blowout.

Timing plays a role, too. Two players could hit 3-run shots in a 10-9 win, but if one hits the homer to give their team a 10-0 lead which is almost squandered and the other hits his to open the scoring, WPA will probably give the edge to the second player, even though both contributed equally to their team's win.

I understand that logic if the question was who had a better Championship Series (or maybe "who had a bigger impact in their LCS" would be more appropriate), but the question seems to be "who would you rather have". In that case, the situations the players were involved in seem meaningless.

RTL
10-17-2011, 05:52 PM
Tough one but I went with Cruz because of that cannon in RF

Jeffy25
10-17-2011, 06:35 PM
Tough one but I went with Cruz because of that cannon in RF

The question asked was

"Who would you take, Freese or Cruz's offensive outputs for a game 7 series?"

the_jon
10-17-2011, 06:42 PM
Should have put it in the title, I voted before I read the first post. I really don't understand the point of this question anyways.

Jeffy25
10-17-2011, 06:46 PM
Should have put it in the title, I voted before I read the first post. I really don't understand the point of this question anyways.

It isn't my fault if people choose to not read the first line of a thread, and post based on not reading.

RTL
10-17-2011, 07:01 PM
The question asked was

"Who would you take, Freese or Cruz's offensive outputs for a game 7 series?"

I answered the poll question.

Texas Holders
10-17-2011, 08:14 PM
I always like going with runs created, since that is ultimately what is important, runs. And they both had 13 runs created in 6 games. Hmmm. Tiebreaker goes to Freese due to the rediculous BA and OPS.

"Ace"ves
10-17-2011, 11:07 PM
It isn't my fault if people choose to not read the first line of a thread, and post based on not reading.

truth, reading is essential

iam brett favre
10-18-2011, 02:34 AM
Cruz by a mile

SportsAndrew25
10-18-2011, 12:37 PM
I would go with Nelson Cruz and no one but Nelson Cruz. He is a BO$$. Look at that OPS!

3mikee_
10-18-2011, 12:51 PM
Right now Cruz and it's not close...

Jack of Blades
10-18-2011, 01:22 PM
The question asked was

"Who would you take, Freese or Cruz's offensive outputs for a game 7 series?"

That's stupid. So we're just ruling out defense?

Yankee Clipper
10-18-2011, 02:17 PM
That's stupid. So we're just ruling out defense?

The question was just focused on who you would value more as a hitter in the World Series. I don't really seem anything wrong with that :shrug:

Jeffy25
10-18-2011, 04:58 PM
That's stupid. So we're just ruling out defense?

The question was which offensive numbers would you rather have.

But Freese had a better defensive season than Cruz by every defensive metric, if you want to include defense, it might start to bring Freese up some (but they are both close to average defensively anyway)