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sox04rR
10-10-2011, 09:03 PM
I have a question for people that know about war. I know war means wins above replacement, but i dont quite understand the concept of it. IF jacoby ellsbury has lets say a 6.4 WAR.. how does that number come up. Who determines what the numbers are for the "replacement" are? Im assuming that a replacement is some type of average. But what average is it used for. Is it everyone that played a baseball game that year divided up into how many players there are? Then you take Jacoby's stats and dtermine how much better they are to an average player? I guess i just understand where the numbers come from, from the replacement?

robbnen#31
10-10-2011, 09:04 PM
http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=436

Jeffy25
10-10-2011, 09:08 PM
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/


Description:

Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic. You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is pretty darn all-inclusive and provides a handy reference point. WAR basically looks at a player and asks the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a minor leaguer or someone from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth 6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth 3.5 wins.

Calculating WAR is simpler than you’d think. If you want the detailed (yet very understandable) version, check out the links at the bottom of the page; Dave Cameron does a good job of walking through the process step-by-step. The short answer, though, is that as follows:

- Offensive players – Take wRAA and UZR (which express offensive and defensive value in runs above average) and add them together. Add in a positional adjustment, since some positions are tougher to play than others, and then convert the numbers so that they’re not based on league average, but on replacement level (which is the value a team would lose if they had to replace that player with a “replacement” player – a minor leaguer or someone from the waiver wire). Convert the run value to wins (10 runs = 1 win) and voila, finished!

- Pitchers – Where offensive WAR used wRAA and UZR, pitching WAR uses FIP. Based on how many innings a pitcher threw, FIP is turned into runs form, converted to represent value above replacement level, and is then converted from runs to wins.

WAR is available in two places: FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball-Reference (rWAR). Both statistics use the same framework, but are calculated slightly differently and therefore sometimes show different results. The above explanation is for fWAR; see the section below on rWAR for more information on the differences between the two iterations of WAR.

Context:

League-average WAR rates vary. An average full-time position player is worth 2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically less than 1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack 1 WAR. Here are some 2010 WAR values:

Position Players

This graph courtesy of Justin Bopp from Beyond the Boxscore. Remember: 2 WAR is average, 0 WAR is “replacement level”.



Starting Pitchers



Relief Pitchers



fWAR versus rWAR:

During 2010, Baseball-Reference unveiled a new feature: current and historical WAR values on each of its player pages. This WAR (referred to as rWAR) uses the same framework as FanGraphs’ version (fWAR), but has three main differences:

1. Pitcher Value: fWAR relies totally on FIP, making it a defense-independent metric, while rWAR adds in defensive runs saved as well.

2. Calculating Defense: Each system uses a different defensive metric. fWAR uses UZR, while rWAR uses TotalZone (developed by Sean Smith). UZR is more accurate but is only available from 2002 onward, while TotalZone values can be calculated for any player in baseball history.

3. Baserunning: rWAR includes this, while fWAR doesn’t.

As a result of these differences, rWAR values typically come in lower than fWAR values, meaning a 6 rWAR is more impressive than 6 fWAR. For more on the differences between fWAR and rWAR, please read these links: The Book Blog discussion, On Fielding Differences, and On Scaling.

fWAR is available on FanGraphs for any year in baseball history, but it is only calculated using UZR from 2002 onward. Any fWAR values earlier than that use TotalZone.

rWAR is available on Baseball-Reference for any year in baseball history.

Things to Remember:

- Since there is no UZR data for catchers, the fielding component for catcher fWAR is calculated using the Stolen Base Runs Saved (rSB) metric from the Fielding Bible. It still does not account for all aspects of catcher defense, so bad defensive catchers are most likely overrated by WAR and good defensive catchers are underrated.

- WAR is context, league, and park neutral. This means you can use WAR to compare players between years, leagues, and teams.

- It is possible to have a negative WAR. In fact, the worst fWAR any player has had since 2002 is Neifi Perez from the 2002 Royals. His -3.1 fWAR eclipses the second place finisher, Yuniesky Betancourt from the 2009 Royals (-2.2 fWAR). Oh, those Royals…

Links for Further Reading:

Intro to WAR – Big League Stew

Background on WAR – Offense

Part 1 – Batting
Part 2 – Fielding
Part 3 – Positional
Part 4 – Replacement
Part 5 – Converting Runs to Wins
Part 6 – Dollars
Part 7 – Additional Info.
Part 8 – Team Context
Background on WAR – Pitching

Part 1 – Introduction
Part 2 – FIP
Part 3 – Replacement
Part 4 – Run Environments
Part 5 – Converting Runs to Wins
Part 6 – Park Adjustments
Part 7 – Calculations
Common Misconceptions – The Book Blog

Mike Silva Chronicles: WAR – The Book Blog

Historical WAR Database

wOBA to WAR Conversion – Beyond the Boxscore

Cheezombie
10-10-2011, 09:11 PM
A replacement level player is the average AAA replacement had the starter go down with an injury for example. They are typically 20 runs or 2 wins below average per 600 PA. A team made up of all replacement level players would be expected to win about 50 games. It's calculated by valuing offense, defense, positional value, and time played.

WoodandNails
10-10-2011, 09:14 PM
Five points for every A the player has in his name. Add two points for every R the player has in his name, but subtract .3 points for each of the player's names that does not begin or end with W.

I'm working backwards here, but that formula seems to be bulletproof.

sox04rR
10-10-2011, 09:30 PM
whos to determine though that if a star player is worth 6.4 war based on his stats that a replacement could not duplicate his stats, expecially if he is in teh minor leagues and has not played in an mlb game. If mike mIchael morse got injured for a month whos to say that bryce harper couldnt duplicate what he did in his average month... and if morse stats are 31 hrs 95 rbis .303 av .360 obp .550 slug and he is only a 3.0 war what makes adrian gonzo a 5.5 war with extreamly similar stats. .338 av .410 obp .548 slug 27 hrs 117 rbs with also 140 more plate apperances...

sox04rR
10-10-2011, 09:32 PM
Five points for every A the player has in his name. Add two points for every R the player has in his name, but subtract .3 points for each of the player's names that does not begin or end with W.

I'm working backwards here, but that formula seems to be bulletproof.

:laugh:

Cheezombie
10-10-2011, 09:36 PM
whos to determine though that if a star player is worth 6.4 war based on his stats that a replacement could not duplicate his stats, expecially if he is in teh minor leagues and has not played in an mlb game. If mike mIchael morse got injured for a month whos to say that bryce harper couldnt duplicate what he did in his average month... and if morse stats are 31 hrs 95 rbis .303 av .360 obp .550 slug and he is only a 3.0 war what makes adrian gonzo a 5.5 war with extreamly similar stats. .338 av .410 obp .548 slug 27 hrs 117 rbs with also 140 more plate apperances...

It doesn't care who the specific replacement is, it's giving everyone the same replacement player, the "average AAA player", not any specific AAA player.

WoodandNails
10-10-2011, 09:45 PM
Has anyone constructed a formula for WBRH, to determine how much better your team would be if it had Roy Halladay in its rotation?

sox04rR
10-10-2011, 10:16 PM
It doesn't care who the specific replacement is, it's giving everyone the same replacement player, the "average AAA player", not any specific AAA player.


It gives everyone the same player based on position?

sox04rR
10-10-2011, 10:17 PM
Because it can't be the same numbers for every position?

Cheezombie
10-10-2011, 10:19 PM
Right, it includes positional adjustment. The replacement player for 1B is going to be much better on offense on average than the replacement for C.

Pinstripe pride
10-11-2011, 09:00 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01-2pNCZiNk

theslick1
10-11-2011, 09:39 AM
whos to determine though that if a star player is worth 6.4 war based on his stats that a replacement could not duplicate his stats, expecially if he is in teh minor leagues and has not played in an mlb game. If mike mIchael morse got injured for a month whos to say that bryce harper couldnt duplicate what he did in his average month... and if morse stats are 31 hrs 95 rbis .303 av .360 obp .550 slug and he is only a 3.0 war what makes adrian gonzo a 5.5 war with extreamly similar stats. .338 av .410 obp .548 slug 27 hrs 117 rbs with also 140 more plate apperances...

WAR is based on historical data. It isn't forward looking. It doesn't attempt to predict how Bryce Harper will play if he replaces Mike Morse.

It attempts to tell you how much better Morse was in the past compared to a hypothetical replacement player.